Abu Muhammad is one of only two people still living in a 12-story residential building in Lebanon’s southern city of Tyre.

Most of the city’s 200,000 residents have fled since Israel launched devastating air raids across the country on September 23.

“There’s no life here anymore,” said Muhammad, who is a building janitor. “Everyone is gone. Nearly all the shops are closed. There is only one bakery open.”

Israel’s ongoing air strikes targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, has taken a huge toll on civilians.

Nearly 700 people have been killed and over 100,000 displaced just this week in Lebanon. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been accused of firing some 8,000 rockets into northern Israel in the past year, uprooting around 60,000 people, and killing several dozen, including civilians. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

Scores have been killed in intense shelling and air strikes in and around Tyre, Lebanon’s fourth-largest city and one of the targets of Israel’s air campaign, residents said.

“When an air strike lands close by, I run to a nearby hospital for cover,” said Muhammad. “Otherwise, I stand guard near the entrance gate of the building so nobody tries to break in.”

Muhammad, who is in his 50s, said there is a severe shortage of fuel in the city and electricity is only available for a few hours in the evening. The prices of basic goods have skyrocketed, he said, and many people remaining in the city are relying on their emergency food supplies.

Only the thunder of shelling, the thud of bombs, and the roar of Israeli warplanes puncture the eerie silence enveloping Tyre, a coastal city along the Mediterranean Sea that is popular with vacationers, he said.

Muhammad moved to Tyre, known locally as Sur, after civil war erupted in 2011 in neighboring Syria. He sent his wife and three children back to Syria several months ago.

But Muhammad said he will remain in Tyre, despite the risks, even as tens of thousands of people frantically try to escape southern Lebanon for the relative safety of the capital, Beirut, and northern Lebanon.

“I’m already a refugee,” he said. “Where will I go? I don’t even have the means to leave.”

A bus ticket from Tyre to Beirut usually costs around $3. Now, he said, bus companies are charging up to $100 per person. A taxi costs at least $300, he said.

Escalating Conflict

Israel’s aerial bombardment of Lebanon is the deadliest since the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

The two foes have traded constant cross-border strikes since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip in October, following an unprecedented attack on Israel by the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.

Israel has intensified its attacks against Hezbollah in recent weeks. On September 17-18, suspected Israeli attacks targeting electronic devices used by members of the armed group killed dozens of people and injured thousands.

Just days later, Israel launched what some have described as one the most intense air raids in modern warfare, hitting thousands of targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut.

Israeli officials in recent days have suggested that the country is preparing for a ground invasion of Lebanon even as the United States attempts to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.

'We Can’t Go Back'

As the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict escalates, ordinary Lebanese and Israelis are bearing the brunt of the violence.

Salah, an academic, fled the town of Aabbassiyeh, near Tyre, with his wife and son after their next-door neighbor’s house was flattened by an Israeli air strike.

“As I was driving out of the town, rockets and missiles were landing near us,” he said. “I saw a residential building collapse behind us.”

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The drive to Beirut usually takes around one hour. But Salah’s family was on the road for nearly 30 hours, with the country’s main highway choked with thousands of cars.

“It was chaos,” Salah said. “I saw women giving birth on the side of the road. Some cars that had run out of fuel were abandoned. There were up to 10 people crammed in some cars. People were sitting on top of cars or in the trunk.”

Salah and his family are staying in a small apartment in Beirut, which has also been the target of Israeli strikes, with two other families. He does not know when he will be able to return home.

“The worst part is that we can’t go back,” he said. “If one of our relatives is killed there, we can’t bury them. The town is empty and there are bodies lying in the rubble. There’s nobody there to bury them.”

Even as many flee Tyre and neighboring towns, some residents are unable or unwilling to leave.

Among them is Muhammad, a Palestinian refugee whose parents fled to Lebanon decades ago.

“The air strikes in Tyre have been intense,” he said. “Many people have been killed or wounded. There’s shelling all around us. There’s the constant noise of jets flying over the city.”

Despite the grave danger, Muhammad is adamant that he and his family will not leave.

“If we die, I'd rather die in my own home,” said the father of three. “Whenever we hear an air strike, we rush to the basement. We hold hands and we pray.”

Hezbollah is both a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

It is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.

The Shi'ite group emerged during the chaos of Lebanon's civil war and in response to Israel's invasion in 1982.

Hezbollah is believed to have been created by Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

The aim of Shi'a-majority Iran was to unite Lebanon's Shi'ite political groups and militias under one organization, says Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies.

Hezbollah was also intended to be a key part of Tehran's deterrence strategy.

"Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

The U.S. State Department says Iran has armed and trained Hezbollah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars into the group. The State Department has previously described Hezbollah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

Hezbollah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. director of national intelligence, and is said to have over 150,000 rockets and missiles at its disposal, including weapons that can penetrate deep into Israeli territory.

The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah has turned itself "into the world's most powerful nonstate actor."

Citrinowicz says Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

He describes Hezbollah not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

Hezbollah is a key part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, a loose alliance of proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups against Israel and the United States.

Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed armed groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers in 2006 triggered a 34-day conflict with Israel, which launched air strikes and a ground offensive into Lebanon.

The war, which ended after a UN-brokered cease-fire, was a major boost to Hezbollah's political standing in Lebanon and the region.

While Hezbollah remains a politically influential player in Lebanon, its support base does not extend beyond the country's Shi'ite community.

Many members of Lebanon's Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim communities accuse Hezbollah of operating outside the state's control and of dragging the country into regional conflicts.

"Hezbollah doesn't enjoy the same level of popularity and public support that it did back in 2006," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He attributes the decline in Hezbollah's popularity to a series of economic and political scandals involving the group in recent years.

Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months, with Israel killing many of its senior commanders, neutralizing a significant part of its military arsenal, and disrupting its communications.

While the group has been weakened, experts say the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.

"Hezbollah has enough resources and experience to inflict considerable damage to Israel in a ground war," Azizi added, noting that the group is better armed and trained than the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Israel has conducted the deadliest bombardment of Lebanon since a devastating five-week conflict with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in 2006.

The September 23-24 attacks that killed hundreds of people mark the start of a new war between Israel and its longtime foe, Hezbollah, experts say.

The sides have exchanged constant cross-border strikes since Israel launched its war in the Gaza Strip in October. Hezbollah has said it has fired rockets on Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.

But Israel's deadly air strikes, coming soon after a series of exploding device attacks in Lebanon that was widely blamed on Israel, indicate the outbreak of a new conflict.

"Both sides can escalate further, but we're already at a level of violence that matches the Second Lebanon War" in 2006, said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

The distinction between the ongoing conflict and a full-scale war "is becoming so narrow that it's almost irrelevant," Horowitz added.

Iran-backed Hezbollah is reeling from a series of setbacks in recent months as Israel has assassinated key members of its leadership and command structure. Israel's suspected attack last week targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters also compromised the group's communications.

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Explainer: Are We Witnessing The Start Of The Third Lebanon War?

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Despite suffering significant losses, experts say the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.

Horowitz warned that putting Hezbollah "fully out of combat is not a realistic objective," given its military arsenal as well as its manpower, which numbers in the tens of thousands.

Hezbollah has retaliated to Israel's aerial bombardment by firing rockets at northern Israel. But the group has yet to use its more sophisticated weapons, such as drones and medium- and long-range rockets that can strike deep into Israeli territory.

Hezbollah insists it will continue to strike Israel unless a cease-fire deal is reached to end the Gaza war. Israel, however, says its goal is to ensure security along its northern border with Lebanon so that displaced Israelis can return home.

"The Israelis think that if they apply enough pressure on Hezbollah, the group will eventually agree to decouple the Lebanon front from the Gaza front -- or face so many losses that its ability to continue the war of attrition it waged against Israel for 11 months will be significantly reduced," Horowitz said.

But experts say Israel is adopting a dangerous strategy by ramping up its attacks against Hezbollah.

"The assessment may be that Israel can neutralize a significant part of Hezbollah's arsenal before the group can use it to carry out massive attacks against central Israel, and that Iran and Hezbollah may also be deterred from escalating," Horowitz said. "That's a very risky bet."

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Full-Blown War Between Israel And Iran-Backed Hezbollah 'Not In The Interests' Of Tehran

Iran, Hezbollah's key backer, has been reluctant to directly get involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Farda, London-based political commentator Jalali Hashemi said Hezbollah's relatively muted response to the September 23-24 attacks and Iran's unwillingness to get into a direct confrontation with Israel have emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out "more devastating attacks."

Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war on several occasions, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and pledged to retaliate, although there has been no direct military response by Iran.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian warned that Israel's air campaign in Lebanon "may turn into a regional war."

Ali Mohtadi, a Britain-based regional expert, said that during the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 Tehran refrained from getting directly involved in the hostilities. Instead, Iran provided its ally with logistical support and weapons.

"It is possible that this time, even though Iran is in a different place compared to 2006, it will continue to provide the same level of support to Lebanon [Hezbollah]," Mohtadi told Radio Farda.

With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad and Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda

For months, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have traded constant cross-border attacks that have killed dozens and displaced thousands of people.

Now there are fears of a full-blown war between the foes amid the fallout from a deadly rocket attack from Lebanon hit the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Hezbollah quickly denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack that killed 12 people, including children. But Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Experts say no side wants an all-out war in a region that has been reeling since Israel in October launched its war against Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that runs the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of a major escalation.

"Though, I do think that neither side is interested in one," he said, adding that "a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is very dangerous" for Iran.

Tehran is Hezbollah's main ally, and the Lebanese militant group is a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of militant groups and proxies that aid it in opposing Israel and the United States.

Hezbollah is also considered a key part of Iran's efforts to deter Israel or Washington from going to war against Tehran.

'Too Costly' For Iran

Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have carried out attacks against Israel after it launched its devastating war in Gaza, which came shortly after Hamas's October 7 attack in Israel that killed around 1,200 people.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the goal of the attacks was to "pressure Israel" and "save Hamas," which is backed by Iran.

"This coordination has been clearly supported by Iran, but the final aim is not to expand the scope of the war but to end it," he added. "I don't think there is any way Iran would benefit from a war between Israel and Hezbollah."

Azizi said Iran and its allies have become increasingly concerned about the cost of their hostilities with Israel, which has retaliated by targeting the commanders, military facilities, and financial activities of Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is considered Iran's leading militant partner, helping Tehran manage its network of regional state and nonstate allies.

Horowitz described the Lebanese group as "the most powerful tool in Iran's arsenal" that in some ways may even be "more powerful than Iran itself" in deterring Israel.

If a war breaks out, Iran could be dragged in to defend its key ally, Horowitz said.

"And if Israel is already paying the price of fighting Hezbollah, Iran's main military force, it may also be willing to take more risks vis-a-vis Iran."

Hezbollah's Balancing Act

Hezbollah has not usually shied away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets. But it issued a rare denial of responsibility after the attack in the Golan Heights.

Horowitz attributed the denial to the civilian death toll, but also because the victims were all members of the Druze community, an Arabic-speaking ethnic and religious minority in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights, and northern Israel.

Horowitz said most members of the Druze community in the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981, do not see themselves as Israelis.

He added that Hezbollah is also aware that the Lebanese public does not want another costly war with Israel.

In 2006, Hezbollah's kidnapping of Israeli border guards ignited a devastating five-week conflict with Israel that killed 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians.

If there was a full-blown war with Israel, "many in Lebanon may ask why Hezbollah gambled the fate of a country already on the brink, and how the killing of Druze children and teenagers helped the Palestinian cause that Hezbollah claims to defend," Horowitz said.

What If War Breaks Out?

With tensions running high and Israel's security cabinet on July 29 authorizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate against Hezbollah, the prospect of a full-blown war appears to be real.

On the evening of July 30, Israel launched an air strike in Beirut that it said killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s leading military figures since it was founded in the 1980s. Hours later, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed on a visit to Tehran. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike against Haniyeh, Iran explicitly blamed its archfoe.

Prior to the two killings, Azizi said Iran and its regional allies were "prepared for another phase of significant but incremental escalation against Israel."

But he said whether Iran gets directly involved could depend on how a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah plays out.

If war broke out, members of the axis of resistance would likely intensify their attacks against Israel while also targeting U.S. troops and bases in the region in a bid to pressure Washington to rein in Israel, Azizi said.

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He added that Hezbollah could defend itself and possibly respond if Israel limits its offensive to an aerial assault. But given that Israeli attacks have depleted its command in recent months, the Lebanese group could struggle to fend off a ground offensive, he said.

In that case, the overseas arm of the Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds Force, could put boots on the ground to help Hezbollah, Azizi said.

If the threat to Hezbollah grew, he added, Tehran could decide to directly target Israel as it did in April, when it launched an unprecedented direct air attack against its archenemy.

Horowitz said while direct Iranian involvement would be possible if Hezbollah sustained critical damage, Iran will still try to steer clear of exposing itself directly.

"After all, Hezbollah's role [in Iran's view] is to defend Tehran -- not the opposite," he said.

This article has been updated to include an Israeli strike in Beirut on July 30 and a second strike, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on July 31.

Israel and its Iran-backed Lebanese foe Hezbollah insist they do not seek a full-scale conflict, but they continue to take steps toward war.

It took the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hezbollah nearly a month to deliver on its promised attack against Israel for the killing of its most senior commander, Fuad Shukr.

But Israel saw the attack coming, taking what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described as preemptive strikes against Hezbollah's rocket launchers on August 25, apparently reducing the scale of the Iran-backed group's offensive.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said that while neither side wants an all-out war, each party is "very determined to impose its own equation on the other."

They continue to take risks by attacking each other, but mistakes and miscalculations could spark the very conflict they want to avoid, Zimmt warned.

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"This ongoing, so-called limited conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is very difficult to manage," he added.

The IDF says around 100 fighter jets took part in its preemptive operation, while Hezbollah claims it launched more than 300 rockets and drones against Israel. If the numbers are true, this marks the biggest exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since the 2006 war, which ended in a stalemate.

Without Israel's preemptive strikes, the scale of Hezbollah's attack would have been devastating, Zimmt said. That would have prompted a "severe" Israeli response, he added.

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Israel Intercepts Hezbollah Missiles, Bombs Southern Lebanon

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Despite the heavy exchange of fire, the attacks do not -- at least on the surface -- seem to have affected negotiations to establish a cease-fire in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the European Union and the United States.

Zimmt said while he is "not optimistic" about the prospects of a cease-fire, such a deal could help de-escalate tensions -- although, even that, he added, is only speculation.

Hezbollah Going Solo?

The Middle East has been on edge for weeks, expecting not just an attack on Israel from Hezbollah but also from Iran.

Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel after a bombing in uptown Tehran killed Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not commented on the attack.

Haniyeh was killed hours after Shukr, widely seen as the second-most powerful person in Hezbollah, was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut.

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Full-Blown War Between Israel And Iran-Backed Hezbollah 'Not In The Interests' Of Tehran

Many assessed that an Iranian attack on Israel would come in concert with strikes from Hezbollah.

But the Lebanese group, which is more an Iranian partner than a proxy, appears to have grown tired of waiting and struck out on its own.

"It is very important to note that Hezbollah didn't wait for the Iranians," Zimmt said, arguing that one reason why Hezbollah waited so long to launch its retaliatory strike was that it had hoped to attack Israel alongside Iran.

However, the Lebanese group likely concluded that a direct Iranian strike was not coming, at least for now.

"This might have some impact -- perhaps not immediately -- on Hezbollah's relationship with Iran," Zimmt said.

A suspected Israeli attack targeting electronic devices used by members of the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah appears to mark a new phase in the escalating hostilities between the longtime foes.

Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in deadly tit-for-tat cross-border attacks since the devastating war in the Gaza Strip erupted in October 2023.

Experts say the coordinated September 17 attack in Lebanon that targeted pagers and killed at least 12 people and wounded thousands of others, many of them believed to be Hezbollah fighters, was a significant escalation that could make a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah inevitable.

Hezbollah’s leadership and rank-and-file turned to hand-held pagers to skirt Israeli surveillance on mobile-phone networks in Lebanon.

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A new deadly wave of explosions hit Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon on September 18. Walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters were targeted.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there had been a "pattern of incremental escalation" between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months.

Hezbollah has been striking deeper into northern Israel and displacing tens of thousands of Israeli citizens. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its assassination campaign against Hezbollah inside Lebanon.

"At some point, this will get out of hand and explode into an all-out war," Azizi said.

The explosions in Lebanon came after Israel on September 16 said it was expanding the focus of its almost yearlong campaign against EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza to confront Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon. Israel also added the safe return of its citizens to the north as a new goal in the war.

Ali Sardarzadeh, a Middle East analyst based in Germany, said the Lebanon attack was intended to send a "clear message to Hezbollah to stop the power display they are engaging in."

Israel is "pressuring Hezbollah both through warfare and diplomacy," Sardarzadeh told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Ali Mohtadi, a Britain-based regional expert, said the "explosion of pagers could mark a new phase of a [Israel-Hezbollah] war that has been ongoing for nearly a year."

Mohdati told Radio Farda that a full-scale war was against the interests of both Israel and Hezbollah but added that hostilities had "reached a stage where it could spiral out of control at any moment."

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How Have Hezbollah's Devices Put It At Risk?

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Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the explosions and vowed to retaliate. The Israeli military has not commented.

Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at the London-based School of Oriental and African Studies, said the explosions were an embarrassment and major security breach for Hezbollah. But she said a full-blown conflict was not inevitable.

"With Hezbollah rendered vulnerable, Israel is continuing its military campaign in southern Lebanon," Khatib said. "But it will not necessarily escalate its military engagement into full-scale war as the pagers attack itself is a deterrent for Hezbollah."

A direct conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a wider regional war that would draw in Iran, Hezbollah's key backer and Israel's archenemy.

Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah, have launched attacks against Israel in support of Palestinians since the Gaza war erupted.

Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war on several occasions, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and pledged to retaliate, although there has been no direct military response by Iran.

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Israel And Hezbollah Edge Closer To Conflict Neither Side Desires

Among those wounded in the September 17 attack in Lebanon was Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani. Iranian media reported that he suffered injuries "to the hand and the face."

Experts said that it was unlikely that the attack in Lebanon would trigger direct Iranian retaliation against Israel.

"I think Iran will consider this primarily a Hezbollah issue despite the injuries suffered by the Iranian ambassador," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"We will probably see discussions and consultations between Iran and Hezbollah concerning a possible retaliation, but my sense is that Iran prefers the response to come from Hezbollah."