Iran says punishing Israel will prevent further instability in the Middle East but that it does not want to escalate tensions already running high after the assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Fears that the Gaza war could turn into a wider regional conflict have intensified as Iran and its Lebanese Hizballah ally -- which has also been deemed a terrorist organization by Washington -- have vowed to avenge deadly strikes in Tehran and Beirut that Iran has blamed on Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Iran and its proxies against attacking his country and said Israel was already in a "in a multifront war against Iran's axis of evil."

"We believe that Iran is entitled to punish the aggressor within the framework of international law…. Iran will definitely and decisively take serious and deterrent measures by exercising its inherent right on the basis of international principles to ensure its security," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani told reporters in Tehran on August 5, according to the Tasnim news agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

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What Hamas Leader's Killing Means For Talks Aimed At Ending Gaza War

"Iran believes that stability will be achieved with the punishment of the aggressor," he added.

Israel has not taken responsibility for Haniyeh's killing in the Iranian capital in what has become a major embarrassment to the authorities in Tehran.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Tehran on August 5, according to Russian state media, for a working visit with senior Iranian officials, including President Masud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in less than a week ago.

According to Iranian state media, Pezeshkian told Shoigu that Tehran was determined to expand relations with its "strategic partner” and expressed appreciation for Moscow’s support.

"Russia is among the countries that have stood by the Iranian nation during difficult times," Pezeshkian reportedly told Shoigu.

The IRGC said on August 3 that a short-range projectile was behind the killing and accused the United States of supporting the attack, which it blamed on Israel. The IRGC said in a statement that a rocket with a 7-kilogram warhead was used to target the residence of Haniyeh, who was the political leader of Hamas.

Citing unnamed sources, The New York Times reported that the blast that killed Haniyeh was a bomb covertly smuggled two months ago into the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying in Tehran.

Kanaani said the international community, and the United States in particular, had failed to help maintain stability in the region.

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How Will Rising Middle East Tensions Impact Afghanistan and Pakistan?

A day earlier, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pledged Washington's "iron-clad support" for Israel if Tehran were to launch an attack.

On August 5, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that Washington has sent messages through diplomatic channels urging countries to tell Tehran that escalation in the region "is not in anyone's interest."

Miller told a briefing that Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on August 5 with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Muhammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty on regional tensions, but he did not say whether messages had been delivered to Iran.

Washington and Tehran do not have diplomatic relations and messages are often transmitted by third-party nations.

As calls for de-escalation continue from around the globe, Tehran has called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) over Haniyeh's assassination. The group, which consists of 57 states including all of Israel's neighbors, agreed to meet on August 7.

Tensions have been running high in the region since Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7 that killed some 1,200 people, with another 240 being taken hostage as Hamas fighters retreated back into the Gaza Strip.

In response, Israel launched a withering war against Hamas that, according to the Hamas-led Health Ministry, has left almost 40,000 people dead and hundreds of thousands homeless.

Then, on April 13, Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles -- which caused limited damage and casualties -- in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders, including two generals.

Israel is already in a "multifront war" with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting on August 4, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict. Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hizballah commander in Lebanon and the top political leader of Hamas -- deemed a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU -- in Iran. Tehran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who arrived in Tehran on August 4 on a rare visit to discuss rising tensions in the Middle East, said he was not carrying a message from Israel to Tehran, but he nevertheless pleaded for "peace, stability, and security" in the troubled region.

"I did not come to Tehran to convey a message from Israel to Iran or vice versa," Safadi was quoted by the Palestinian news agency Sama and Al-Jazeera as saying.

Jordan has generally good relations with neighboring Israel.

"My visit to Iran is to consult on the serious escalation in the region and to engage in a frank and clear discussion about overcoming the differences between the two countries with honesty and transparency," Safadi told a Tehran news conference alongside his Iranian counterpart, acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani.

Safadi and Baqeri Kani spoke on the phone twice in the past two days to discuss developments in the Middle East after the assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Safadi's trip to Iran was the first by a Jordanian foreign minister since March 2015.

Fears that the Gaza war could turn into a wider regional conflict have intensified as Iran and its Lebanese Hizballah ally have vowed to avenge deadly strikes in Tehran and Beirut that Iran has blamed on Israel.

In Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran and its proxies against attacking his country and said that Israel was already in a "in a multifront war against Iran's axis of evil."

"I reiterate and tell our enemies: We will respond and we will exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter," Netanyahu told his cabinet, according by his office.

After the meeting in Tehran, the Jordanian foreign minister said in a statement that Amman wants the Middle East region to be peaceful, secure, and stable and wants to see an end to the tensions.

Safadi also called for an end to the Gaza war and the continuation of negotiations for the recognition of the Palestinian state.

The statement called the assassination of Haniyeh an "escalatory step" and warned that a regional war would have a "devastating impact on all."

Israel has not taken responsibility for Haniyeh's killilng in the Iranian capital in what has become a major embarrassment to the authorities in Tehran.

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What Hamas Leader's Killing Means For Talks Aimed At Ending Gaza War

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on August 3 that a short-range projectile was behind the killing and accused the United States of supporting the attack, which it blamed on Israel.

The IRGC said in a statement that a rocket with a 7-kilogram warhead was used to target the residence of Haniyeh, who was the political leader of Hamas.

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Iran Says 'Short-Range Projectile' Used In Assassination Of Haniyeh

Citing unnamed sources, The New York TImes reported that the blast that killed Haniyeh was a bomb covertly smuggled two months ago into the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying in Tehran.

Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordan's King Abdullah II on August 4 agreed in a phone call that an escalation of military actions in the Middle East must be avoided "at all costs," the French presidency said.

With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and dpa

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on August 3 that a short-range projectile was behind the killing of Ismail Haniyeh and accused the United States of supporting the attack, which it has blamed on Israel.

The IRGC said in a statement that a rocket with a 7-kilogram warhead was used to target the residence of Haniyeh, who was the political leader of Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU.

The IRGC said that, according to its investigation, the rocket also caused heavy damage when it hit Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran on July 31, but the statement didn't include details of the location from which it was fired, the type of projectile, or the identity of the person or persons who fired it.

Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Masud Pezeshkian.

The statement said the action was designed and carried out by Israel with the “support” of the U.S. government. It also reiterated a call for retaliation.

Haniyeh’s killing has triggered fears of an escalation in the region where tensions have already been high since the start of the war in Gaza.

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What Hamas Leader's Killing Means For Talks Aimed At Ending Gaza War

The Israeli government has yet to comment officially, but a photo of Haniyeh with a stamp on his forehead saying "Eliminated" was posted on the Government Press Office's Facebook page. The post, which was later deleted without explanation, did not specifically claim the strike was carried out by Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on August 1 said that Washington was "not aware of or involved in" Haniyeh’s assassination and wouldn’t speculate on the impact it might have on the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack inside Israel's territory that killed 1,200 people. Around 250 others were taken hostage, some of whom have since been released.

Some of the hostages have died while in Gaza as Israel carries out a massive military operation that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians as the Israeli military pursues the goal of eliminating Hamas.

Milad Bidi, a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was killed in an Israeli air strike on July 30 that targeted top Hizballah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, Lebanon.

Confirming his death, IRGC’s top commander Hossein Salami hailed Bidi on August 1 for his “fight against the criminal and occupying Zionist regime,” referring to Iran’s archfoe, Israel.

“He will be an inspiration to the country’s revolutionary and passionate youth of today and tomorrow,” Salami wrote in a statement released by the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency.

Bidi is the second member of the IRGC to be killed in an Israeli strike since the April 1 bombing of the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus. That attack killed seven members of the IRGC, including two generals.

Iran responded by launching an unprecedented missile and drone attack against Israel and warned that a "new equation" had been established whereby Tehran would retaliate against any Israeli attacks on its interests in the region.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies, told RFE/RL in June that it was unlikely that Iran and Israel understand what the “new equation” is.

SEE ALSO:

What Hamas Leader's Killing Means For Talks Aimed At Ending Gaza War

Shukr and Bidi were killed hours before Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and E.U.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, was killed while on a visit to the Iranian capital, Tehran.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after Haniyeh’s killing that it was “our duty” to avenge his death, which Tehran and its regional allies blame on Israel.

At least 20 members of the IRGC have been killed in suspected Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon since that start of the war in Hamas-controlled Gaza in October 2023.

Israel began its assault, which has killed nearly 40,000 people in Gaza according to the local health authorities, after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israeli settlements, killing nearly 1,200 people.

The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, has thrown the Middle East into crisis.

But his assassination in a suspected Israeli strike in Iran on July 31 and the heightened risk of a broader war also have implications in the wider region, including for Iran's eastern neighbors, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Experts say Kabul and Islamabad will likely struggle with the security, economic, and political fallout from a major escalation in the Middle East.

But a potential regional war involving Iran is unlikely to directly drag in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which have cordial relations with Tehran, experts say.

"The attacks will not draw either country into direct participation in the conflicts such as by offering to send fighters," said Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington.

Pakistan and the Taliban both directly blamed Israel for Haniyeh's assassination, which Tehran has also blamed on its archenemy.

Islamabad denounced the killing as an act of "terrorism," and hundreds of supporters of a Pakistan Islamist party held a symbolic funeral for Haniyeh near Islamabad on July 31.

'Making Life Harder For Afghans'

Iran is on friendly terms with the Taliban. Tehran is also the biggest trading partner of the cash-strapped and internationally unrecognized Taliban-led government. Kabul is dependent on Iranian ports for most of its imports and exports amid tensions with neighboring Pakistan.

The Islamic republic is also home to around 4 million Afghan migrants and refugees. The remittances they send back home keep many impoverished families afloat in Afghanistan, which has grappled with an economic crisis since the Taliban takeover in 2021.

Graeme Smith, a senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said rising tensions in the Middle East "could have destabilizing consequences for the fragile situation in Afghanistan."

Smith said the risk is that a conflict involving Iran will harden the country's borders with Afghanistan, "making life harder for Afghans."

He said Afghanistan's humanitarian crisis, the largest in the world, could worsen if its borders with Iran are closed.

"The exit route from that crisis depends on renewed trade across the region," he said. "[But it] requires borders opening to the flow of goods and labor."

Pakistan Not To Become 'Directly Involved'

Hundreds of thousands of Afghans and millions of Pakistanis work as laborers and traders in the oil-rich Arab Gulf countries.

A potential regional war could disrupt the flow of Afghan and Pakistani migrant workers heading to the Gulf. That would deal a major blow to Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which are both heavily dependent on remittances sent from abroad.

In Pakistan, some political parties and the media have called for Islamabad to take a more hard-line approach to Israel, which is not formally recognized by the South Asian country.

But Weinbaum said the "general feeling among [Pakistani] policymakers is that the country has enough security concerns of its own not to become directly involved."

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New Extremist Groups -- At Least In Name -- Enter Pakistan's Militant Scene

Faced with rising militant attacks in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan, Islamabad's choices are limited.

"There are also worries about an American reaction if Pakistan makes any military commitments [to Iran]," Weinbaum said.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are home to millions of Shi'ite Muslims. And Iran, a Shi'a-majority country, could look to Shi'ite communities living in its eastern neighbors for recruits in the event of a war.

During the Syrian civil war, Iran recruited, trained, and armed thousands of Shi'ite fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight. Many of those fighters who survived have returned home as the war has died down.

Iranian political prisoner Shakila Monfared has started a hunger strike in protest against two new charges, her brother Ashkan Monfared said on July 31.

Monfared, 31, was on medical furlough when officers arrested her a day before her leave was set to end, her brother wrote on X, adding that she was “beaten” during her arrest.

She has been charged with “destruction” and “disturbing public order.”

Monfared, who is currently held in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, was first convicted of “insulting sanctities” and “propaganda against the establishment” in 2020 and sentenced to just over four years in prison.

In 2021, while still in prison, she was handed two years and eight months in jail for allegedly being a “member of anti-establishment groups.”

Earlier this year, she was given an additional 15 months in prison after being convicted of having “links to opposition elements.”

Rights groups say the charges are “fabricated” and insist she has only engaged in peaceful dissent against the Islamic republic.

In April 2022, she went on a hunger strike and refused to take her medication after prison authorities refused her request to be taken to a hospital outside the prison.

That same year, she accused the authorities in Qarchak prison of compelling several prisoners to threaten to kill her and went on a days-long hunger strike after her complaints were ignored.

Monfared’s brother said appeals and requests to the judiciary to investigate the new cases that have been brought against his sister “have hit a dead-end.”

U.S.-based nonprofit Freedom House has given Iran a low score of 11 out of 100, noting that it is not a free country.

In its most recent annual report, the organization said many “remain in prison for peacefully challenging the clerical establishment and criticizing human rights abuses.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said that the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, will not influence the peace process toward ending the Israeli-Hamas war “because peace is not on the agenda at this point.”

Olmert told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda in an interview on July 31 that Iran’s response to the killing will be shaped by Tehran’s belief that Israel carried out the attack, regardless of the fact that Israel has not claimed responsibility.

“Whether we did it or not is less important,” said Olmert, who was heavily involved in unsuccessful efforts to work out a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority while serving as prime minister from 2006 to 2009. “It's what they [Iran] think happened that will probably determine their reaction.”

Haniyeh’s death on Iranian territory and Israel’s targeting of Tehran-backed groups involved in attacks against Israel have sparked fears of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel and a broader Middle East conflict.

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In a July 31 post on Telegram, Hamas announced that the 62-year-old Haniyeh was killed in an "air strike on his residence in Tehran.” Haniyeh, who headed Hamas’s political headquarters in Qatar, was in the Iranian capital with other leaders of Iran’s “axis of resistance” opposing Israel to attend the July 30 the inauguration of newly elected President Masud Pezeshkian.

While Israel has not commented on the incident, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge against Israel over the killing. The New York Times, citing Iranian officials, reported that Khamenei ordered a direct strike against Israel during an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on July 31. Pezeshkian said in a July 31 statement that Iran "will defend its territorial integrity" after the attack, without providing details.

Haniyeh was heavily involved in internationally brokered talks on reaching a permanent cease-fire to the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The 10-month war, sparked by a deadly assault on Israel on October 7 launched by Hamas and other Palestinian extremist groups, has killed nearly 40,000 people, mostly civilians, according to health officials in Gaza.

Haniyeh’s killing came just a day after Israel said it had killed Fuad Shukr, a commander of the Iranian proxy Lebanese Hizballah, which Israel said was behind a July 28 rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that killed 12 Israeli youths.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) confirmed on August 1 that Shukr was killed in Beirut in strikes Israel said it had launched against Hizballah targets in Lebanon.

Israel has described the July 28 attack as the deadliest since the October 7 assault by Hamas in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and hundreds were taken hostage.

Israel vowed to wipe out Hamas’s leadership after the October 7 assault and has demanded the return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas.

Haniyeh, who was a U.S.-designated terrorist and was seen in a video released by Hamas celebrating the success of the October 7 assault, was a marked man. But he was also seen as a relative moderate compared to those in Hamas’s militant wing and was key to securing a cease-fire, the release of Israeli hostages, and a possible peace deal.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Olmert downplayed the impact Haniyeh’s death will have on any peace negotiations.

“I don't think that it will in any way influence the chances for peace, because peace is not on the agenda altogether at this point,” Olmert told Radio Farda. “It may create some more difficulties in the process of reaching an agreement about the hostages.”

Olmert served as prime minister as a member of the hard-line Likud party currently chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his time in office he endorsed the Arab peace initiative to end the longstanding Arab-Israeli conflict and was a supporter of a two-state solution to the Gaza crisis.

In 2006, a member of Olmert’s cabinet said that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was “unavoidable” considering the apparent failure of international sanctions to deny Iran technology that could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. A spokesperson for Olmert subsequently said that “all options must remain on the table” and that more could be done to put financial pressure on Tehran.

In 2012, then-former Prime Minister Olmert opposed the idea of strikes against Iran’s controversial nuclear facilities.

Speaking to Radio Farda on July 31, Olmert said that the “Iranians will look for a way to react to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh.”

However, he said that the fact that the Israeli government did not officially take responsibility for his killing will influence the “extremity of the Iranian reaction.”

“I think it will be somewhat more moderate than under different circumstances,” Olmert said.

Olmert expressed hope that an expected Iranian response would not spark a broader Middle East war directly pitting Iran against Israel, saying that retaliation beyond a direct retaliatory attack launched by Iran in April would be a “mistake.”

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Stunned by Hamas Leader's Killing In Tehran, Iran And Allies Weigh Response

Iran and its partners and proxies launched hundreds of drones and missiles against Israeli territory on April 13-14 in retaliation for an attack that Tehran said Israel carried out earlier that month against an Iranian Embassy compound.

Seven IRGC members, including top commanders, were killed in the April 1 strike, which Israel did not take responsibility for. The Iranian retaliatory attack caused little damage, with most of the Iranian missiles and drones shot down or otherwise failing to reach their targets.

After Iran reported downing a handful of small drones over the central city of Isfahan on April 19, which again was seen as a likely Israeli counterstrike for which it did not claim responsibility, fears of a wider conflict died down somewhat when Iran’s muted response was taken as an attempt to avert further escalation.

“I'm not certain that this is entirely in the interest of Iran and they may live to regret every such action,” Olmert said. “I think that the lesson they should have learned from the April confrontation is that even when you shoot hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, others, you are not going to cause such damage that you have planned to make, and you lose your deterrence, and you lose the power of your threat.”

Negotiations aimed at ending Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip were faltering even before the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

But Haniyeh’s assassination in a suspected Israeli strike in Iran on July 31 makes a cease-fire deal, or even the continuation of talks, even less likely.

The 62-year-old had played a key role in internationally brokered talks on reaching a permanent cease-fire in the Palestinian enclave and securing the release of scores of Israeli hostages. He was also considered a relative moderate within the organization.

“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?" asked Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on July 31. The Arab Gulf state, along with Egypt, has brokered the monthslong talks.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry expressed a similar sentiment, stating that the killing undermined the peace talks.

Hamas's military wing said Haniyeh’s assassination in a Tehran suburb was a “watershed” that would “take the war to new levels.”

Despite its threats, Hamas may not have the military capacity to retaliate. It is already reeling from Israel’s brutal 10-month war in Gaza that has killed nearly 40,000 people, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health officials in the territory.

Even then, the group is unlikely to be eager to engage in further talks now. Beyond the prospect of a boycott, there are also practical considerations.

Haniyeh was a highly experienced figure with global recognition who was used to managing relations with key allies across the Middle East and beyond. Some of the last photos of him show him embracing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Based in Qatar, he was able to travel and turn up at important meetings.

His death leaves a significant void, and it is unclear who will succeed him.

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Who Was Slain Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh?

Yehya Al-Sinwar is the head of Hamas’s armed wing and widely seen as the mastermind of the group’s October 7 attack that killed some 1,200 Israelis. Hundreds of others were taken hostage. He is currently believed to be hiding in Gaza.

Another senior figure, Zaher Jabarin, heads the group in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is partly run by the Palestinian Authority. He is also in hiding.

Israel has vowed to wipe out the Hamas leadership, and both men are seen as prime targets.

A new leader could emerge from Hamas’s political office in Qatar, but that is likely to take time and it is not clear what position they would take.

Haniyeh had been cast by some as a pragmatist in contrast to more hard-line elements of Hamas based in Gaza. But he was also a U.S.-designated terrorist and voiced support for the October 7 attacks.

Even if Hamas decides to keep talking, it is unclear who would have the capacity and authority to represent the group in the high-stakes negotiations.

Iranian state TV said Haniyeh’s killing would delay further talks by “several months.”

It has also been suggested by many observers that the assassination of Haniyeh heightens the risk of a regional conflict. Khamenei quickly blamed Israel and promised that Iran would avenge Haniyeh’s death, adding credence to those concerns.

A major escalation would likely make the prospect of Israel-Hamas talks taking place, let alone making progress, even more distant.

But much will depend on the actions of Iran and its network of militant groups and proxies in the region. In weighing up their response, Tehran and its allies are likely to tread a fine line between saving face and provoking a damaging Israeli reprisal.

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If Iran can avoid a serious escalation, that would remove one barrier to restarting talks between Israel and Hamas in the future.

But that is considered a big “if.”

Iran has also blamed the United States for Haniyeh’s killing because of Washington’s military, economic, and diplomatic support for Israel.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied that Washington had any involvement in or prior knowledge of an attack.

But he was notably cautious about commenting on where Haniyeh’s assassination leaves the prospects for a truce in Gaza, merely saying on July 31 that “the imperative of getting a cease-fire, the importance that that has for everyone, remains."

A funeral ceremony has concluded in Tehran for Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Iran-backed Palestinian extremist group Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU.

Iran said Haniyeh, 62, was killed on July 31 in Tehran in a raid that it accused Israel of carrying out and which has sparked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led the funeral prayers alongside the country’s newly inaugurated president, Masud Pezekshian, while in downtown Tehran crowds gathered carrying portraits of Haniyeh and Palestinian flags at Tehran University.

The entire ceremony was broadcast live on state television.

Haniyeh is due to be buried later in the capital of Qatar, Doha, where he lived.

Khamenei has threatened a "harsh punishment" for the killing of Haniyeh. His office said that it is Iran’s “duty to take revenge” after Haniyeh’s death.

Muza Abu Marzuk, a member of Hamas's political bureau also vowed revenge.

"The assassination of leader Ismail Haniyeh is a cowardly act and will not go unanswered," Marzuk said.

SEE ALSO:

Who Was Slain Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh?

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who was the first to announce Haniyeh's death, said it was investigating the attack that killed him while he was in Tehran to attend Pezeshkian's July 30 inauguration ceremony.

The Israeli government has yet to comment officially, but a photo of Haniyeh with a stamp on his forehead saying "Eliminated" was posted on the Government Press Office's Facebook page. The post, which was later deleted without explanation, did not specifically claim the strike was carried out by Israel, though it noted the Hamas official "was killed in a precise strike in Tehran."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack inside Israel's territory that killed 1,200 people. Around 250 others were taken hostage, some of whom have since been released.

Some of the hostages have died while in Gaza as Israel carries out a massive military operation it says is aimed at eliminating Hamas. Some of the hostages are believed to still be alive.

Haniyeh’s killing has triggered fears of an escalation in the region where tensions have already been high since the start of the war in Gaza.

The incident comes as Washington is making a push to get Hamas and Israel to agree to a temporary cease-fire and a deal to release hostages being held in Gaza. Senior officials from the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt are engaged in the latest round of talks to secure such a deal.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that Washington was "not aware of or involved in" Haniyeh’s assassination and wouldn’t speculate on the impact it might have on the region.

He did say, however, that the "best way to bring the temperature down" was to keep pushing for a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on July 31 at Iran's request to discuss Haniyeh's death, with Tehran's envoy Amir Saeid Iravani urging members to take "immediate action to ensure accountability for these violations of international law."

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Ali Mamouri, a research fellow with Australia’s Deakin University and Middle East specialist, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that while the situation is still far from a full-scale regional war, "new levels of conflict will escalate."

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Radio Farda that there was "a likelihood that the Iranians will look for a way to react to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh."

"But I think that the fact that the Israeli government did not recognize publicly and officially any responsibility...will somehow influence the extent or the extremity of the Iranian reaction. I think it will be somewhat more moderate than under different circumstances," he said.

Haniyeh became Hamas's political chief in 2017 and lived in the Gaza Strip until 2019, when he moved to live in exile in Qatar.

Seen by some analysts as a moderating influence, he had emerged as one of its most visible leaders during the war with Israel in Gaza as he shuttled between countries in the Middle East to attend international negotiations over the conflict, including the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas.

With reporting by AFP

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, in Tehran has sent shock waves across the region, once against raising the specter of all-out war between Iran and its archfoe, Israel.

Haniyeh was killed early on July 31 in an affluent neighborhood of Tehran, soon after attending the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian in parliament.

His killing is the latest in a string of assassinations in and around the Iranian capital in recent years that the Islamic republic has blamed on Israel, which has not claimed any of the incidents.

Analysts say Haniyeh's assassination is a major hit to the already tarnished reputation of Iran's security apparatus and will prompt Tehran to retaliate, though that response is unlikely to come directly from the Islamic republic.

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Iran Versus Israel: Who Has The Military Edge?

Just hours before the Palestinian leader's death, Israel claimed it killed a top commander of the Lebanese militant group Hizballah in an air strike in Beirut.

Yossi Melman, a Tel Aviv-based analyst and the intelligence and strategic affairs correspondent for the Israeli daily Haaretz, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Iran and Tehran-backed Hizballah "will have to respond" once they "recover from their traumas and shocks."

‘Strong Message' To Iran And Allies

Just a week ago, Iran's outgoing intelligence minister, Esmai Khatib, told reporters that the ministry's biggest accomplishment under his tenure was "breaking up Mossad's infiltration network," referring to Israel's intelligence agency.

Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran, amid heightened security due to the presence of dozens of high-ranking Iranian and foreign officials for Pezeshkian's inauguration, has brought Khatib's claim under scrutiny.

"This is certainly a massive failure of Iranian security, one in a long string of failures going back decades that demonstrate Israel and the United States have access to some of the Islamic republic's most sensitive secrets and can put this information to spectacular use to inflict major defeats," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

He added that Haniyeh's killing "severely embarrasses the Islamic republic and sends it a strong message that none of its officials and allies are safe."

Potential Response

In April, Iran launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its diplomatic compound in Damascus. Days later, suspected Israeli strikes hit a military base outside Iran's central city of Isfahan.

Tehran has largely avoided getting directly involved in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip that broke out in October, instead using its network of militant groups and proxies to hit Israel.

But Sabet said the Islamic republic may feel pressure to respond directly to the killing of Haniyeh to compensate for the embarrassment of failing to prevent his assassination on Iranian soil.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after the killing that it was "our duty" to avenge Haniyeh.

Iran's mission to the UN said in a tweet on X that Tehran's response will be "special operations -- harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator."

"Iran is facing a conundrum: If it delivers a direct response [to Israel], the military and political consequences may not be in its favor," Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

"Therefore, I think the response, which will be serious, will come through Hizballah and at least not from Iran's own territory like we saw in April."

Alireza Namvar Haghighi, a professor at the University of Toronto, warned that it would be "dangerous" for Iran to allow itself to be driven by emotions and fall into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "trap" to drag Iran into the wider conflict in the Middle East.

"Iran needs to manage tensions," he told Radio Farda.

Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this story.

Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of the designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas who was killed in Tehran on July 31, was a controversial figure whose death could escalate tensions in the Middle East and derail negotiations to end Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip.

Haniyeh was the political chief of Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. Based in Qatar, he had played a key role in internationally brokered talks on reaching a cease-fire in Gaza.

A U.S.-designated terrorist, Haniyeh was considered a relative moderate within the organization.

Hamas's military wing is led by Yahya Sinwar, the leader based in Gaza who is considered the mastermind of the group’s attack inside Israeli territory on October 7 that killed more than 1,200 people and sparked Israel's retaliatory invasion of the Palestinian enclave later that month.

Haniyeh, who was born in a Palestinian refugee camp, died at the age of 62. No state or organization has claimed responsibility for his killing, although Tehran has blamed Israel and vowed revenge. While Israel has not commented on the incident, Haniyeh had been high on Israel's hit list since the October attack.

More than 39,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials in the territory, as international calls for a cease-fire have gone unanswered.

Haniyeh, who would have been a top voice in any peace negotiations, was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in on July 30. The two leaders were pictured together during the visit in photographs released by Pezeshkian's office.

Haniyeh was born in the Al-Shati refugee camp west of Gaza City. His family is originally from an area that is now the Israeli port of Ashkelon, north of the Gaza Strip. The family fled the area during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and moved to Gaza.

Haniyeh joined Hamas as a university student shortly after it was founded in 1987 after the beginning of the First Intifada, which protested Israel's occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.

That year, Haniyeh was arrested and briefly jailed for participating in anti-Israel protests. He also graduated in 1987 with a degree in Arabic literature from the Islamic University of Gaza.

In 1988, Haniyeh was arrested again and jailed for six months, and in 1989 he was sentenced to three years in prison due to his involvement with Hamas.

After his release in 1992, Haniyeh was among hundreds of Hamas members and supporters who were exiled to southern Lebanon. Haniyeh spent a year at the Marj al-Zahour camp before returning to Gaza to become a dean at his alma mater, the Islamic University of Gaza.

When Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin was released from an Israeli prison in 1997, Haniyeh was tapped to head his office and the two developed a close relationship. Haniyeh's prominence within Hamas rose quickly and he was selected to represent the group in the Palestinian Authority, which runs part of the West Bank.

Haniyeh and Yassin narrowly escaped an Israeli air strike in September 2003 that targeted their residence in Gaza City. Yassin was killed six months later by an Israeli air strike.

In the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections, Haniyeh headed the list of Hamas candidates.

Under the slogan "change and reform," 76 out of 132 parliamentary seats went to Hamas.

With a majority secured, newly nominated Prime Minister Haniyeh set about forming a government.

Several weeks of negotiations to form a coalition government between Hamas, its main rival Fatah, and other Palestinian groups failed -- largely due to Hamas's refusal to accept conditions set out by the United States, Russia, United Nations, and European Union, which included recognition of the state of Israel.

Shortly after its landslide victory, Hamas said it would not back down from its goal of replacing Israel with an Islamic state and indicated that it would resist negotiations to resolve the long-standing conflict with Israel.

Haniyeh eventually formed a government made up mostly of Hamas members and technocrats.

In presenting his government's plan, Haniyeh also called on the United States and Europe to not carry out their threats to halt aid to the Hamas-led government unless it recognized Israel, renounced violence, and abided by agreements under previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements aimed at a two-state solution.

Haniyeh said that he considered the continuation of the Palestinians' struggle for independence to be a "legitimate right." He also expressed openness to engage in talks with international negotiators to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"Our government will spare no effort to achieve a just peace in the region, end the occupation, and restore our rights," he said, although Hamas remained steadfast in its refusal to recognize the state of Israel.

In June 2007, open violence broke out between Hamas and Fatah, and Hamas took full control of the Gaza Strip. Shortly afterward, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed the Hamas-led government.

The internal conflicts among the Palestinian groups led to the de facto division of control of the Palestinian territories, with the West Bank controlled by the Palestinian National Authority and Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip.

Israel, which had pulled its forces out of the Gaza strip two years earlier, imposed a land, sea, and air blockade on the Hamas-controlled territory that is still in effect.

In 2011, the United States requested that Qatar provide a headquarters for Hamas's political leadership to facilitate communications. Haniyeh moved to Doha in 2016 and the next year replaced Khaled Mashal as the head of Hamas's political office.

The U.S. State Department added Haniyeh to its list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists, a classification Washington said targeted terrorist groups and leaders who threaten the stability of the Middle East.

The State Department noted that Hamas had been designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 1997 and added to the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists in 2001.

In extending the terrorist designation to Haniyeh himself, the State Department explained: "Haniyeh has close links with Hamas’ military wing and has been a proponent of armed struggle, including against civilians. He has reportedly been involved in terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens. Hamas has been responsible for an estimated 17 American lives killed in terrorist attacks."

Following the deadly surprise attack by Hamas on Israeli cities and towns on October 7, Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders appeared in a video in which they thanked God for the attack's success.

Three of Haniyeh's sons -- Hazem, Amir, and Haniyeh -- have reportedly been killed by Israeli air strikes against the Gaza Strip since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Haniyeh is survived by his wife and cousin, Amal Haniyeh, with whom he had 13 children, including eight sons and five daughters.

Iran said Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian extremist group Hamas, was killed on July 31 in Tehran in a raid that it accused Israel of carrying out and which has sparked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it was investigating the attack that killed the 62-year-old Haniyeh while he was in Tehran to attend the July 30 inauguration ceremony for Iran's new president, Masud Pezeshkian.

The Iran-backed Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

Hamas confirmed the news in a post on its Telegram channel on July 31, saying Haniyeh was killed in an "air strike on his residence in Tehran."

The Israeli government has yet to comment officially, but a photo of Haniyeh with a stamp on his forehead saying "Eliminated" was posted on the Government Press Office's Facebook page. The post, which was later deleted without explanation, did not specifically claim the strike was carried out by Israel, though it noted the Hamas official "was killed in a precise strike in Tehran."

Haniyeh's death came the same day that the United States carried out a strike in Iraq, raising concerns about the possibility of an all-out war in the Middle East. Washington claimed as self-defense the strike inside a base south of Baghdad that is used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces. It said the attack killed four members of the group, which contains several Iran-aligned armed militias, and wounded four others.

Although Haniyeh’s death has sparked fears of an escalation in the region, Ali Mamouri, a research fellow with Australia’s Deakin University and Middle East specialist, said the situation is "still far from a full-scale regional war."

"However, the existing rules where both sides exercise restraint to a very limited level of engagement will change, and new levels of conflict will arise," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

"We will witness more attacks by Iran's allies in the region on Israeli territory rather than directly from Iran," he added. "I think that the level of tension will escalate and might lead us toward relatively dangerous borders."

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Radio Farda that there was "a likelihood that the Iranians will look for a way to react to the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh."

"But I think that the fact that the Israeli government did not recognize publicly and officially any responsibility...will somehow influence the extent or the extremity of the Iranian reaction. I think it will be somewhat more moderate than under different circumstances," he said.

Meanwhile, Pezeshkian said in a statement, less than 24 hours after his inauguration, that Iran "will defend its territorial integrity" after the attack, though he did not say how.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also vowed revenge against Israel over the killing.

Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas immediately condemned Haniyeh's killing, calling it a "cowardly act and dangerous development," according to the Palestinian state news agency WAFA.

Several countries denounced the attack, with Russia calling it an "unacceptable political assassination," while Turkey warned it would extend the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The killing of Haniyeh comes as Washington is making a push to get Hamas and Israel to agree to a temporary cease-fire and a deal to release hostages being held in Gaza. Senior officials from the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt are engaged in the latest round of talks to secure such a deal.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that Washington was "not aware of or involved in" Haniyeh’s assassination and wouldn’t speculate on the impact it might have on the region.

He did say, however, that the "best way to bring the temperature down" is to keep pushing for a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.

"We will continue to labor that for as long as it takes to get there," he told Channel News Asia while on a two-day official visit to Singapore. "It's vitally important to help end the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza. It's vitally important to get the hostages home…. It's vitally important to hopefully put things on a better path for more enduring peace and more enduring security, so that focus remains."

Earlier on July 30, Israel claimed it had "eliminated" Fuad Shukr, the Hizballah militant commander Israel alleges was behind a weekend rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli youths in Beirut.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a post on the X social media network that Shukr has "directed" attacks by Hizballah.

There was no immediate response from Hizballah.

Shukr was wanted by U.S. authorities for his alleged involvement in a 1983 attack on U.S. troops in Beirut. Washington had offered up to $5 million for information on Shukr, who is also known as al-Hajj Mohsin and is on the U.S. terrorist list.

Hizballah, which rarely shies away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets, has denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, but Israel had vowed to retaliate against the Iran-backed group.

Israel has vowed to kill leaders of Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack inside Israeli territory that killed 1,200 people. Around 250 others were taken hostage, some of whom have since been released.

Some of the hostages have died while in Gaza as Israel carries out a massive military operation it says is aimed at eliminating Hamas. Some of the hostages are believed to still be alive.

“Assassinating the Hamas leader will make negotiations and de-escalation more difficult. Things will become more violent and the situation will worsen, it will not improve," said Areepen Uttarasin, a Thai politician who has been one of the negotiators in talks to free the hostages being held in Gaza by Hamas.

Haniyeh had been part of Hamas for decades and became its political chief in 2017. He lived in the Gaza Strip until 2019, when he moved to live in exile in Qatar.

He had emerged as one of its most visible leaders during the war with Israel in Gaza as he shuttled between countries in the Middle East to attend international negotiations over the conflict, including the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas.

With additional reporting by Reuters

An Iranian court has ordered Grammy Award winner Shervin Hajipour to begin his prison sentence for making the viral song Baraye, according to a July 30 Instagram post. The song became the anthem of the Women, Life, Freedom protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody. Hajipour said on Instagram that his almost four-year sentence was upheld by an Iranian appeals court, which claimed the song incited people to “kill and fight.” While Hajipour is no longer barred from leaving Iran, he said he will go back to prison rather than leave the country. He was previously arrested in September 2022.

The U.S. Treasury Department on July 30 announced sanctions on individuals and entities that have aided Iranian ballistic missile development and procurement through Tehran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics.

The five individuals and seven entities are based in Iran, China, and Hong Kong.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a press release that those sanctioned have procured “various components, including accelerometers and gyroscopes, which serve as key inputs to Iran’s ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program.”

The Treasury Department alleged that one of the sanctioned Iranian companies -- the Electro Optic Sairan Industries Company -- also contributed to the Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center’s development of Shahed-series UAVs, which the Treasury said “are being used by Russian forces in Ukraine.”

The United States designated the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics in 2007, citing weapons of mass destruction and their delivery, according to the press release. The ministry is connected to Iran’s ballistic missile program.

“Iran’s reckless proliferation of its ballistic missiles and UAVs risk further instability and endangers civilian lives,” Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said. “The United States will continue to impose costs on those that facilitate Iran’s ability to produce these deadly weapons.”

The announcement came on the same day as the swearing in of Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian, a moderate reformist and former heart surgeon who won a snap election following the death of hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi in May.

While Pezeshkian is expected to be a more moderate Iranian president, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “the supreme leader continues to call the shots” at a July 19 fireside chat.

Blinken “resolutely” affirmed that, per U.S. policy, Iran must not be allowed to get a nuclear weapon and said the U.S. has been “maximizing pressure on Iran across the board,” including through more than 600 sanctions on Iranian people and entities.

For months, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hizballah have traded constant cross-border attacks that have killed dozens and displaced thousands of people.

Now there are fears of a full-blown war between the foes amid the fallout from a deadly rocket attack from Lebanon hit the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Hizballah quickly denied it was responsible for the July 27 attack that killed 12 people, including children. But Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran-backed Hizballah.

Experts say no side wants an all-out war in a region that has been reeling since Israel in October launched its war against Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that runs the Gaza Strip and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy, said Israel and Hizballah are on the brink of a major escalation.

"Though, I do think that neither side is interested in one," he said, adding that "a conflict between Israel and Hizballah is very dangerous" for Iran.

Tehran is Hizballah's main ally, and the Lebanese militant group is a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of militant groups and proxies that aid it in opposing Israel and the United States.

Hizballah is also considered a key part of Iran's efforts to deter Israel or Washington from going to war against Tehran.

'Too Costly' For Iran

Hizballah and Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have carried out attacks against Israel after it launched its devastating war in Gaza, which came shortly after Hamas's October 7 attack in Israel that killed around 1,200 people.

Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the goal of the attacks was to "pressure Israel" and "save Hamas," which is backed by Iran.

"This coordination has been clearly supported by Iran, but the final aim is not to expand the scope of the war but to end it," he added. "I don't think there is any way Iran would benefit from a war between Israel and Hizballah."

Azizi said Iran and its allies have become increasingly concerned about the cost of their hostilities with Israel, which has retaliated by targeting the commanders, military facilities, and financial activities of Iran-backed groups including Hizballah.

Hizballah is considered Iran's leading militant partner, helping Tehran manage its network of regional state and nonstate allies.

Horowitz described the Lebanese group as "the most powerful tool in Iran's arsenal" that in some ways may even be "more powerful than Iran itself" in deterring Israel.

If a war breaks out, Iran could be dragged in to defend its key ally, Horowitz said.

"And if Israel is already paying the price of fighting Hizballah, Iran's main military force, it may also be willing to take more risks vis-a-vis Iran."

Hizballah's Balancing Act

Hizballah has not usually shied away from claiming attacks on Israeli targets. But it issued a rare denial of responsibility after the attack in the Golan Heights.

Horowitz attributed the denial to the civilian death toll, but also because the victims were all members of the Druze community, an Arabic-speaking ethnic and religious minority in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights, and northern Israel.

Horowitz said most members of the Druze community in the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel from Syria in 1981, do not see themselves as Israelis.

He added that Hizballah is also aware that the Lebanese public does not want another costly war with Israel.

In 2006, Hizballah's kidnapping of Israeli border guards ignited a devastating five-week conflict with Israel that killed 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians.

If there was a full-blown war with Israel, "many in Lebanon may ask why Hizballah gambled the fate of a country already on the brink, and how the killing of Druze children and teenagers helped the Palestinian cause that Hizballah claims to defend," Horowitz said.

What If War Breaks Out?

With tensions running high and Israel's security cabinet on July 29 authorizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate against Hizballah, the prospect of a full-blown war appears to be real.

On the evening of July 30, Israel launched an air strike in Beirut that it said killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hizballah’s leading military figures since it was founded in the 1980s. Hours later, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed on a visit to Tehran. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike against Haniyeh, Iran explicitly blamed its archfoe.

Prior to the two killings, Azizi said Iran and its regional allies were "prepared for another phase of significant but incremental escalation against Israel."

But he said whether Iran gets directly involved could depend on how a potential war between Israel and Hizballah plays out.

If war broke out, members of the axis of resistance would likely intensify their attacks against Israel while also targeting U.S. troops and bases in the region in a bid to pressure Washington to rein in Israel, Azizi said.

SEE ALSO:

Iran's 'Axis Of Resistance': Different Groups, Same Goals

He added that Hizballah could defend itself and possibly respond if Israel limits its offensive to an aerial assault. But given that Israeli attacks have depleted its command in recent months, the Lebanese group could struggle to fend off a ground offensive, he said.

In that case, the overseas arm of the Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds Force, could put boots on the ground to help Hizballah, Azizi said.

If the threat to Hizballah grew, he added, Tehran could decide to directly target Israel as it did in April, when it launched an unprecedented direct air attack against its archenemy.

Horowitz said while direct Iranian involvement would be possible if Hizballah sustained critical damage, Iran will still try to steer clear of exposing itself directly.

"After all, Hizballah's role [in Iran's view] is to defend Tehran -- not the opposite," he said.

This article has been updated to include an Israeli strike in Beirut on July 30 and a second strike, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on July 31.

The U.S. Director of National Intelligence said "foreign actors" are conducting and planning "influence operations" targeting the November elections using increasingly refined tactics "to better hide their hand."

"Foreign actors are turning to commercial firms, such as marketing and public relations companies, to leverage these firms' expertise in communications, technical sophistication, and to complicate attribution," said the Election Security Update for late July issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on July 29.

The report notes that such companies "are often able to operate more nimbly and with fewer bureaucratic hurdles than government entities."

The U.S. intelligence community expects Russia, China, and Iran to continue to attempt to influence U.S. politics and policies to "benefit their interests and undermine U.S. democracy and Washington's standing in the world."

"Moscow is leveraging Russia-based influence-for-hire firms to shape public opinion in the United States, including with election-related operations," the report says.

"These firms have created influence platforms, directly and discreetly engaged Americans, and used improved tools to tailor content for U.S. audiences, while hiding Russia's hand."

U.S. intelligence considers Russia the "predominant threat to U.S. elections," and believes Moscow "is working to better hide its hand."

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What Would U.S. Foreign Policy Look Like Under A Kamala Harris Presidency?

The ODNI report says China "probably does not plan to influence" the presidential election, though it may seek to "denigrate down-ballot candidates it sees as threatening its core interests."

Iran, the report says, will attempt "to fuel distrust in U.S. political institutions and increase social discord." Tehran has also "notably been active in exacerbating tensions over the Israel-Gaza conflict."

On July 30, Iran's ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, rejected the report, saying Tehran did not intend to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

"Iran does not intend to and is not working on swaying the U.S. elections. Most of these accusations are psychological operations [aimed at] creating the impression of a busy election campaign," the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying.

U.S. voters will cast their ballots on November 5. Former President Donald Trump is the Republican Party candidate, while current Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive candidate for the Democratic Party.

In addition, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are being contested.

Masud Pezeshkian was sworn in as Iran's new president in parliament on July 30 after he won a snap presidential election earlier this month and inherited an economy hammered by mismanagement and sanctions and a society that has shown it will take to the streets to demand basic freedoms.

"I as the president, in front of the Holy Koran and the people of Iran, swear to almighty God to be the guardian of the official religion and the Islamic republic system and the constitution of the country," Pezeshkian said in the ceremony broadcast live on state TV.

On July 28, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei formally endorsed Pezeshkian and instructed him to focus on cultivating relations with Iran's neighbors rather than Western states after the new president voiced openness to talking with the West.

SEE ALSO:

'Reformist Loyalist' Masud Pezeshkian Is Iran's New President. Here's What To Expect.

Moderate reformist Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former heart surgeon, defeated ultraconservative hard-liner Saeed Jalili in a July 5 runoff with nearly 54 percent of the vote. Jalili received just over 44 percent.

The snap election was called after the death of hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. The first round of voting on June 28 had voter participation of 39 percent -- a record-low turnout for a presidential election in the history of the Islamic republic.

Iran's theocracy, installed after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, has long maintained that it derives its legitimacy from strong popular support that translates into high voter turnout, but poor participation in recent elections and deadly antiestablishment protests have challenged the legitimacy of the current leadership.

The runoff vote on July 5 saw turnout rise to around 49 percent.

The inauguration ceremony was attended by senior officials from countries including Armenia, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, and Brazil. European Union envoy Enrique Mora also attended.

Regional allies backed by Iran were also in Tehran, such as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the head of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah. Both groups have been designated as terrorists by the United States and European Union. Lebanon's Hizballah and Yemen's Huthi rebels also sent representatives.

Haniyeh and Nakhalah, whose groups have been fighting Israel in the Gaza Strip since Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, met with Khamenei and Pezeshkian. Since his election, Pezeshkian has reaffirmed support for the "axis of resistance," Iran's loose network of militant groups and proxies, against Israel and the United States.

Khamenei, in his endorsement decree, described Pezeshkian as a "wise, honest, popular, and scholarly" individual.

The United States has noted the result of the election but said that elections in Iran are neither free nor fair.

"As a result, a significant number of Iranians chose not to participate at all," a U.S. State Department spokesman said in comments to RFE/RL's Radio Farda on July 7.

SEE ALSO:

Who Is Masud Pezeshkian, Iran's President-Elect?

"We have no expectation these elections will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect for the human rights of its citizens. As the candidates themselves have said, Iranian policy is set by the supreme leader.

"The election will not have a significant impact on [Washington's] approach to Iran either. Our concerns about Iran’s behavior are unchanged. At the same time, we remain committed to diplomacy when it advances American interests," the spokesman said.

The United States in 2018 withdrew from a 2015 landmark nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers that eased international economic sanctions in exchange for limits to Tehran's nuclear program.

Washington cited Tehran's violation of the spirit of the pact and support for extremists in the region -- charges Iran has denied -- and reimposed sanctions targeting Iran's economy and oil sector.

Iran has since scaled back its own commitments and expanded its nuclear program.

"We call on the Western countries to realize [the need] for building relations based on mutual respect and equality. We are ready to negotiate an easing of tensions with states that have not realized until now the place that Iran occupies [in the world]," Pezeshkian said.

He also vowed to continue fighting against the sanctions imposed on Iran. "I think that this is Iran’s unalienable right to have normal relations with the world and I will not bow down in the fight against tough sanctions," he said.

With reporting by AFP

Dozens of people have been put to death in Iran over the past week, after a lull in executions during the recent presidential election period. According to reports by foreign-based Iranian rights groups, at least 30 prisoners convicted of murder or narcotics offenses were hanged in various prisons between July 20 and July 27. Rights groups had said that the number of executions had dropped in the first half of the year, attributing it to the presidential election. They warned, however, that executions would pick up after the vote. Reformist lawmaker Masud Pezeshkian won the July 5 run-off election and took office on July 28. To read the full story by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, click here.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei formally endorsed Masud Pezeshkian as the new president on July 28 and instructed him to focus on cultivating relations with Iran’s neighbors rather than Western nations.

The endorsement, known in the vernacular as tanfeez, means Pezeshkian’s tenure as president has officially started, despite not being sworn in until July 30.

The televised ceremony was held in Tehran and attended by senior military and political figures as well as foreign diplomats.

In his decree, Khamenei described Pezeshkian as a “wise, honest, popular, and scholarly” individual.

A heart surgeon by training, reformist Pezeshkian is a former health minister and multiterm lawmaker who was elected president earlier this month in a snap election held after the death of hard-line president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.

The first round of voting on June 28 had voter participation of 39 percent -- a record-low turnout for a presidential election in the history of the Islamic republic. The runoff vote on July 5, which saw Pezeshkian face off against ultraconservative candidate Saeed Jalili, saw the turnout rise to around 49 percent.

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Khamenei, who is Iran’s highest religious and political authority and has final say on all state matters, said the foreign policy of Pezeshkian’s government should prioritize “states that have supported Iran throughout these years in the face of pressure both inside and outside the United Nations.”

These countries, he said, include Iran’s neighbors as well as African and Asian nations.

“I don't say European countries are a priority in our foreign policy because of their bad conduct concerning issues like the sanctions and oil,” the 85-year-old supreme leader said.

“They’ll become a priority if they set aside their bad conduct. Of course, we’ll never forget the hostile conduct of some countries.”

Iran has long accused European powers of failing to deliver on their commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal after the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed sanctions targeting Iran’s economy and oil sectors. Iran has since scaled back its own commitments and expanded its nuclear program.

In his address after the endorsement, Pezeshkian spoke of the “need to reform” but added that he would strive to “implement the supreme leader’s general policies.”

France-based political commentator Mohammad Javad Akbarin told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the ceremony showed that the new president is “subservient” to the supreme leader.

“The leader of the Islamic republic will not have a problem controlling [Pezeshkian],” he said.

In his first two decrees after taking office, Pezeshkian named veteran reformist politician Mohammad Reza Aref as his first vice-president and Mohsen Haji-Mirzaei as his chief of staff.

A former lawmaker, Aref previously served as first vice-president in 2001-2005 under Iran’s last reformist president Mohammad Khatami.

Haji-Mirzaei was Iran’s education minister in 2019-2021 in the final two years of moderate former president Hassan Rohani’s tenure.

Government offices and banks throughout Iran were to remain closed on July 28 to avoid overtaxing power networks amid "extreme and unprecedented heat," which prompted similar shutdowns earlier this week, officials said. Temperatures reached nearly 50 degrees Celsius in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan Province and in the central Yadz Province, and were above 45 degrees in at least 10 provinces. The heatwave struck on July 24 before easing slightly, but the government ordered shortened working hours from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. at all government centers on July 27 after the Energy Ministry predicted "difficult conditions" for electricity production and supply. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Afghan refugees and migrants have complained of rising harassment and abuse in neighboring Iran.

This week, banners appeared to be hung in a neighborhood in Tehran, the Iranian capital, demanding that Afghans leave. It was unclear if locals or the authorities were behind the move.

It came after Iranian media reported on July 18 that a local man was allegedly stabbed to death by his Afghan neighbors.

Last week, the homes of several Afghan migrants in the southern city of Khur were reportedly set on fire in apparent retaliation for the killing of an Iranian man, allegedly by an Afghan.

Why It's Important: Anti-Afghan sentiment in Iran has been on the rise in recent years, especially after a mass influx of refugees and migrants following the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021.

Tehran has long blamed Afghans for insecurity and unemployment in Iran, and expelled many members of the community.

An estimated 4.3 million Afghans currently live in Iran, according to the United Nations. More than 1 million have been deported in the past year.

Human rights groups have also documented a sharp rise in the number of Afghans executed in Iran so far this year.

What's Next: As anti-Afghan sentiment rises in Iran, members of the community are likely to be the targets of more discrimination and abuse.

It is unclear if the ill-treatment of Afghans in Iran will discourage others from moving to the Islamic republic.

Hundreds of Afghans are believed to be illegally entering Iran every week to escape Taliban rule and the devastating humanitarian and economic crises in Afghanistan.

What To Keep An Eye On

A growing number of Afghans affected by natural disasters are leaving for neighboring countries.

Afghanistan has been the scene of severe droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events in recent years.

"I was forced to move to Iran after the earthquakes," Hassanzada, a resident of the western Afghan city of Herat, told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

A series of tremors last year killed at least 1,000 people and affected more than 100,000 in and around Herat.

But survivors said the lack of aid and financial assistance forced them to leave the country.

Why It's Important: Afghanistan remains among the world's most vulnerable countries to the effects of global warming and climate change.

In the latest natural disaster to hit Afghanistan, flash floods in the eastern province of Nangarhar last week killed at least 71 people, according to the UN.

The Taliban's seizure of power led international donors to immediately cut international development funding. While some foreign aid organizations continue to operate in Afghanistan, many of them have been forced to curb their work as international funding diminishes.

That's all from me for now.

Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

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