Prague, 24 May 2005 (RFE/RL) The head of Iran’s Guardians Council announced the decision to reinstate former Education Minister Moin and Vice President Mehralizadeh in a letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

The decision came less than 24 hours after Khamenei specifically called on the Guardians Council to review its disqualification of the two reformist candidates.

Moin is the candidate of Iran’s main reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF). Mehralizadeh had been running as an independent.

In his letter to the head of the Guardians Council, Khamenei said, "It is desired that all people in the country from different political interests have the opportunity to take part in the big test of the elections.”

Some say Khamenei’s request to the Guardians Council is an attempt to prevent the spread of protests in the country. Others say the letter shows his concern about a low turnout in the upcoming ballot.

The disqualification of Moin had prompted anger among reformists, who called it illegal. The Participation Front warned that the move would turn the vote into “a sham” and suggested it would not participate in the election. Some of its members called for an election boycott.

Reports say that yesterday some 100-150 students at Tehran University protested the disqualification of Moin and chanted slogans against the Guardians Council.

On 22 May, the conservative Guardians Council published a list of six people, out of more than 1,000, who it said would be allowed to stand in the country’s presidential election. Five of them are generally viewed as close to the conservative camp.

The move was condemned by the Center of Human Rights Defenders established by Iranian lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi. The human rights group said in a statement that any ruling by the Guardians Council on the competence of candidates is a violation of the law and a restriction of people’s rights.

Ebadi, who is currently visiting the United States, told Radio Farda last night that she would not participate in the 17 June election.

“Since I don’t consider these elections free -- because all of the candidates are not accepted and some will be rejected – I will not participate in the [presidential] elections," Ebadi said. "And as long as approbatory supervision (the candidate-screening process) exists, I won’t participate in any elections.“

The European Union and the United States have also criticized the disqualifications of potential presidential candidates in Iran.

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn, whose country currently holds the rotating EU Presidency, talked about the Iraqi electoral environment at a news conference in Brussels yesterday.

"The [European] Council has reaffirmed its disappointment about the decision of the [Iranian] Guardians Council last February [2004] not to authorize a large number of candidates, including numerous reformists, to run in the legislative elections," Asselborn said. "The [European Union] ministers regret that the Guardians Council has again decided to approve only those candidates who represent a relatively narrow range of political opinion. It makes the expression of a truly democratic choice by the Iranian people difficult."

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher suggested to reporters yesterday that the disqualifications are intended “to ensure that only those completely acceptable to the hard-line regime are presented to the electorate."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, said Tehran would not bow to pressure from the United States, a day after Washington imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil industry.

Lavrov's one-day trip to Tehran on February 25 comes a week after the first high-level talks between Moscow and Washington in three years.

The talks in Saudi Arabia on February 18 have raised hopes of a reset between Russia and the United States after tensions soared following the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Analysts said the meeting in Tehran could be the Kremlin checking in to make sure Iran's stance on key issues is in line with Moscow -- especially regarding relations with Washington -- or that Lavrov could be delivering a message from the Saudi Arabian talks.

The potential rapprochement has fueled concerns in Iran that Moscow could abandon Tehran, an ally, to revive relations with Washington. Others in the Islamic republic hope Moscow can mediate an end to the standoff between Iran and the United States.

“They tend to send some diplomats to Iran at least assuage concerns because as you know there is a long-standing apprehension in Iran that the Russians may potentially sell out Iran to the United States,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, told Radio Farda.

Lavrov's visit came a day after Washington imposed a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry, the main source of the country's income.

Earlier this month, Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, saying Tehran was "too close" to weaponizing its nuclear program.

In 2018, during his first term in office, Trump pulled the United States out of an agreement between Tehran and world powers that placed limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Since then, the Islamic republic has ramped up its uranium enrichment, raising fears that it is close to developing a nuclear warhead.

"There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the U.S. as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way," Araghchi said at a joint news conference with Lavrov

Lavrov said diplomatic measures were still on the table for resolving issues around Iran's nuclear program.

The prospect of improved relations between Washington and Moscow have raised concern among some in Tehran who feel it could impact Iran.

Iran's conservative daily Jomhuri Eslami on February 25 warned of a "grand bargain" between Washington and Moscow that could result in Russia "turning a blind eye" to any potential U.S. military action against Iran.

The daily Etemad suggested this week that Lavrov could carry a message from Washington that includes proposals for reducing tensions between Iran and the United States and paving the way for a new round of talks between the two countries.

The daily also said the aim of Lavrov's trip to Iran could be to become acquainted with Tehran's positions before a potential meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the future.

"What Putin is pursuing is not a deal regarding Iran but merely the national interests of Russia," Hossein Shalevarzi, a former head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, said on X last week.

Despite deep mistrust, Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Moscow was hit by a slew of Western sanctions.

Iran has provided Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

“The aim of the trip is to put pressure on Tehran to be in line with Moscow,” Damon Golriz, a lecturer at the Hague University of Applied Sciences, told Radio Farda.

Other Iranian observers say a potential U.S.-Russia reset could be an opportunity for Tehran.

Tehran-based analyst Abdolreza Farajirad said in an interview with Etemad that Lavrov's trip to Iran comes amid "a deadlock" between Tehran and Washington and a worsening economy that has turned into a major challenge for the Islamic republic.

"If Russia can act as a mediator between Tehran and Washington, it can be considered a positive development," Farajirad said.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at concerns in Tehran that Russia might sell Iran out in order to get a good deal with the United States.

What You Need To Know

• Apprehensive Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Riyadh on February 18 in what were the first direct talks between top American and Russian officials on ending the war in Ukraine. The development has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow will abandon Iran to revive relations with Washington.

• Potential For Saudi Mediation Between Tehran And Washington: Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered to mediate talks between its rival Iran and ally the United States. Analysts say the Saudis are driven by ensuring stability in the region and a desire to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb as they seek to become a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse.

• Khamenei Wants Qatar To Release Iranian Assets: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 19 told the visiting Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ignore U.S. “pressure” and release Iranian assets in Qatar. Around $6 billion in frozen funds were transferred from South Korea to Qatar as part of a 2023 deal with the United States that included the release of American citizens in Iran. Masud Aflak, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Doha will never release Tehran's assets without an agreement between Iran and the United States.

The Big Issue

Iran Fears Being Hung Out To Dry

The Riyadh talks ended after more than fours hours with the top U.S. and Russian diplomats agreeing to move quickly to normalize relations and start negotiations on ending the Ukraine conflict, which marks its three-year anniversary on February 24.

Almost as soon as Rubio and Lavrov finished their meeting, online chatter among Iranians focused on one question: Could Russia sell Iran out to get a deal with the United States?

Fueling this sentiment is a comment by Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who said on February 15 that “it is very important” to prevent Russia’s alliances with Iran, China, and North Korea from solidifying.

Why It Matters: Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and was hit by a slew of Western sanctions. Iran has notably been providing Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

In January, they signed a 20-year strategic agreement to strengthen economic, political, and military ties.

Iran relies on Russia and China to protect itself against sanctions as well as resolutions tabled at the UN Security Council.

What's Being Said: The moderate conservative newspaper Jomhuriy-e Eslami, which has long warned against trusting Moscow, charged on February 19 that the “repercussions” of any U.S.-Russia agreement will impact Iran because Moscow has a record of going back on its promises to its allies.

Iran-based commentator Saeed Meshkat said he was “pessimistic” about the talks because “Ukraine and Iran will ultimately become bargaining chips” in future negotiations.

Mohsen Milani, a political analyst based in the United States, urged Tehran to reconsider its position on direct talks with Washington before Russia can negotiate Iran’s rights away to secure its own interests.

Expert Opinion: “As a principle in international relations, power is a determining factor. Naturally, it is not strange for super powers to use smaller countries as tools and leverage to secure their interests,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

After facilitating the first high-level talks between U.S. and Russian officials since the Ukraine war began, Saudi Arabia is now reportedly positioning itself as a mediator in another high-stakes negotiation -- this time between the United States and Iran.

CNN, which first broke the story, reports that it remains unclear whether the Saudis have formally offered to mediate. Still, analysts suggest Riyadh has strong incentives to broker talks and may be better positioned than traditional mediators to bring the U.S. and Iran to the negotiating table.

“Riyadh is looking for a way to address concerns around Iran's nuclear program, as well as its regional activities and its support for proxies,” says Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

“Given Riyadh's interest in avoiding an escalation in the Gulf, it probably sees diplomacy as a more effective means of addressing these issues, rather than military action,” he added.

Saudi Seeking Stability

Saudi Arabia cut relations with Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic missions were attacked by protesters angry over Riyadh’s execution of a top Shi’ite cleric. Two years later, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudis were among Iran’s adversaries who celebrated the move.

In 2019, Yemen’s Iran-backed Huthi rebels launched a major drone and missile attack against Saudi oil facilities, severely disrupting the Kingdom’s crude production.

But much has changed since then, thanks to a Chinese-brokered deal in March 2023 that led to the restoration of relations between Tehran and Riyadh.

Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has long sought to position his country as a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse under his Vision 2030 plan, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil.

To achieve that, however, Saudi Arabia needs stability in the Middle East.

“Saudi Arabia's willingness to moderate between Tehran and Washington was not borne of a political vacuum,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

“By stylistically accommodating Tehran through diplomatic normalization but substantively remaining in the Western orbit, Riyadh is hoping to insulate itself from being the place where a larger regional conflict involving Iran is adjudicated.”

While the Islamic republic officially insists it is not pursuing a nuclear weapon, there has been growing discussion in Iran about weaponizing its nuclear program -- especially as Tehran's regional proxies, long seen as its primary deterrent against Israel and the United States, have suffered setbacks.

Abdulaziz Sager, the chairman of the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Riyadh “firmly says” it’s up to Iran whether it wants to maintain its peaceful nuclear program.

He added, however, that Iran’s expansion of its nuclear program following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear accord “does not give assurances” that it will remain peaceful.

Iranian Incentives

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month dismissed the prospect of direct talks with Trump over a new nuclear deal, insisting that the U.S. president cannot be trusted.

This is where Saudi Arabia can prove decisive and flex its diplomatic muscles, experts say.

On paper, the Saudis can offer to the Iranians things that traditional mediators, namely Oman and Qatar, may not be able to offer, said Brew.

Saudi Arabia has arguably benefitted more than Iran from the 2023 normalization deal, with many in Iran complaining that Tehran has gained little economically from restoring relations with the Sunni powerhouse.

“Iran is looking for ways of ensuring that it's going to receive a degree of economic benefit from an agreement, and Saudi Arabia is a natural way of obtaining that if the Saudis can offer investment, trade, and other benefits,” Brew said.

Another incentive for agreeing to Saudi mediation is that just like former U.S. President Barack Obama could not guarantee that the Trump administration would remain in the 2015 nuclear deal, Trump cannot allay Iranian concerns about the next administration sticking to the deal.

“On the other hand, [Muhammad bin Salman] is going to be around for a long time, and there’s the potential for Saudi offers to sweeten the deal,” Brew argued.

Iran and the U.S. initially held secret talks in 2013 before holding public meetings that eventually led to the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015.

“Iran is likely to engage, especially if it is private, and force concessions simply for staying at the table or for turning off the spigot to activities it can easily resume at a time of its own choosing,” FDD’s Taleblu said.

Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story.

Iran has charged British citizens Craig and Lindsay Foreman with espionage, the country’s judiciary spokesman announced on February 18.

Asghar Jahangir said the couple had entered Iran “under the guise of tourists” and “collected intelligence in several provinces in the country.”

He said they were detained by the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the southern Kerman Province.

The U.K. Foreign Office confirmed their arrest on February 13.

According to Lindsay Foreman’s social media, the couple were on a motorbiking trip across the world, with the final destination being Australia.

British media say they entered Iran on December 30 via Armenia and intended to leave the country via the Pakistani border after five days. They had stayed in Tabriz, Tehran, Isfahan, but never checked into their hotel in Kerman.

Ebrahim Hamidi, the top judge in Kerman Province, alleged that “it has become clear” that the couple “have ties with several institutes linked to intelligence services.”

The U.K. Foreign Office has not commented on the charge. Britain currently advises its citizens against all travel to Iran, citing “significant risk” of arrest, questioning, or detention.

Iran is accused by human rights groups of engaging in “hostage diplomacy,” taking foreign and dual nationals for leverage in dealings with the West.

U.S. intelligence has concluded that the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program in the next few months are high, according to major American media, but the jury is out on whether Israel can destroy its archfoe's nuclear facilities on its own.

Iran is widely believed to be at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades, mostly due to Israeli actions in the past year that severely damaged Tehran's regional network and weakened its air defenses and missile production capabilities.

This assessment is "not strange" because the possibility has been floated for months, specifically following Israeli strikes on Iran last October, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"But this now being reported by major outlets could be linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's approach toward Iran, which is a mixture of a desire to strike a nuclear deal while threatening military action," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Potential Israeli Attack

The Israeli attack last October was in response to the Islamic republic launching 200 ballistic missiles, which penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses but caused little damage.

While Tehran downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, satellite images quickly showed Israel had successfully degraded Iran's air defense and missile-production capabilities.

Analysts say the attack was calibrated, thanks to pressure from former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which convinced Israel not to hit Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.

The attack marked the largest aerial offensive against Iran since the 1980s and showed that Israel can target facilities deep inside Iranian territory.

But Israel is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran's nuclear program without help from the United States.

Iran's two key nuclear sites are the underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz and the enrichment site in Fordow, which is dug into a mountain. Some have expressed doubt about whether even U.S. weapons can reliably penetrate and completely neutralize those facilities.

Since taking office in January, Trump has expressed a desire to make a "verifiable nuclear peace agreement" with Iran, but his language has become noticeably more threatening over time. While Trump initially talked about wanting to see Iran "prosper", he more recently said he would "love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a staunch critic of negotiating with Iran and he opposed the 2015 nuclear deal that was signed during U.S. President Barack Obama's administration.

While Netanyahu has a great rapport with Trump, there is no guarantee that he will reconsider attacking Iran's nuclear sites if Trump were to reach a deal with Tehran.

"For Netanyahu, no deal with Iran is better than any deal. He probably worries that Trump might give away the whole store to the Iranians," says Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

Advanced Nuclear Program

Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term in office and reimposed sanctions against Tehran.

The Islamic republic insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention to develop a bomb.

But it is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels and far above the 3.67 percent limit under the nuclear accord. As of October 2024, Iran has just over 182 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent. Around 42 kilograms are needed to produce one bomb, meaning Tehran has enough to make four bombs.

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its 2024 annual threat report that it does not believe Iran is currently pursuing a bomb, but its activities in recent years "better position it to produce a nuclear device."

If the Islamic republic chose to make a bomb, it would be mainly limited by the time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead, which can take anywhere from a few months to two years.

The New York Times earlier this month reported that there are indications Iran is looking into quickly building a crude nuclear weapon to ward off an attack.

But the D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security argues that even if Iran were to build a crude weapon in half a year, it risks being detected in just a few months, which "is more than sufficient for a devastating military response."

Vaez said while there is a military option in dealing with Iran's nuclear program, there is no military solution.

"Iran's most important asset is the knowledge that it has gained, not the physical infrastructure on the ground or in bunkered facilities," he added.

Fereshteh Ghazi of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this story.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran continues to increase its monthly production of enriched uranium to near weapons grade and time is running out to reach an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that Tehran is increasing its monthly production of 60 percent enriched uranium by almost sevenfold.

"Iran will have about 250 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent by the time the IAEA’s next report is presented in the coming weeks," Grossi said on February 14 in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

"It's clearly a sign that should be taken very seriously. So this is why I believe that we shouldn't be wasting more time. I hope that we can refocus on Iran," he said.

Earlier this month he called on the Trump administration and Iran to engage in dialogue to advance the nuclear talks, stressing that dialogue is "absolutely necessary" to make progress.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said last week that talks with the United States were "not smart, wise or honorable" after President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" policy toward Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero to push it into a deal that would severely constrain its nuclear program.

Trump said at the time that he was “unhappy” to sign the maximum pressure order, but said he had to do it “because we have to be strong and firm.” Iran is "too close" to a nuclear weapon, he added, saying he is willing to talk with the Iranian leadership and hoped a deal could be reached.

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian also supported Ali Khamenei's stance, claiming in a speech on the anniversary of the 1979 revolution that Trump wants to bring the revolution to its "knees."

Grossi said lack of a U.S. special representative for Iran is a hindrance.

"We are eagerly waiting for a U.S. envoy on Iran to be appointed so we can start exchanging views and seeing what the next steps will be," Grossi said. "We are in contact, but we haven't been able to have a political conversation with someone who is implementing the policies of the president."

The IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution in November ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report by spring aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

With reporting by Reuters

For the third consecutive year, the Iranian government has been excluded from the prestigious Munich Security Conference (MSC).

Instead, Masih Alinejad, a prominent U.S.-based Iranian women's rights activist, will participate in two panels.

While Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, was initially “invited” to the conference, he was later “disinvited” -- twice.

Pahlavi, who attended the conference in 2023 following widespread protests in Iran, accused the German government of influencing the conference's decision to rescind his invitation. In a statement, he said, “The ayatollah (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is pulling the strings in Berlin.”

A spokesperson for the security conference said: "The MSC chairman, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, had also already informally invited Mr. Pahlavi to MSC 2025. After consultation with the German government, Mr Heusgen decided not to formalize the invitation to Mr Pahlavi.”

In response to these allegations, a spokesperson for the German Foreign Ministry told RFE/RL's Radio Farda, “Of course, the federal government is in constant contact with the Munich Security Conference,” while emphasizing that, “In principle, the MSC decides independently on its invitations.”

Protest Outside Venue

While Pahlavi and Alinejad represent two of the most visible figures of the Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) -- an exiled opposition group also known as MEK that is considered a terrorist group by Tehran -- will hold a protest outside the official conference venue in Munich.

Although these figures and groups oppose each other , they agree on one issue: to push Western countries to take a tougher stance on Iran, including halting negotiations with Tehran and increasing support for Iran’s opposition groups.

Despite the absence of the Iranian government, it's still possible Iran will be discussed on the conferences' various panels, whether it be the country's controversial nuclear program, relations with its proxies, or the regime’s ongoing disregard for human rights.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at Iran’s continuing struggles with blackouts and how it is frustrating a public already at its limits.

What You Need To Know

• Iran Faces Unplanned Blackouts And Forced Closures: Government offices, banks, and schools have been closed as the authorities struggle to meet the rising demand for electricity. Unplanned blackouts have disrupted everyday life across more than half of the country.

• Rial Sinks To Record Low As Economy Worsens: The Iranian currency plunged to a record low against the dollar earlier this week after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to dismiss negotiations with the United States over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. The Iranian leader's position has outraged the public as the country's economy continues to struggle under crippling U.S. sanctions, leading many to argue that, at this rate, another round of nationwide protests is a matter of when, not if.

• Israel 'Likely' To Hit Iranian Nuclear Sites This Year: U.S. intelligence has concluded that Israel is "likely" to strike Iran's nuclear program in the coming months, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. The assessment is that Israel sees an opening to hit Iran due to Tehran's increased security vulnerabilities. Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that this possibility has been floated for months, but the recent reports by major outlets could be an attempt by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to bring Iran to the negotiating table.

The Big Issue

Blame Game Heats Up

Tehran faced extensive power outages this week, disrupting daily life and sparking public frustration.

The crisis, which began earlier this year with electricity cuts to industrial zones, has now reached the capital, leaving residents without hot water, functioning elevators, and access to parking due to power-dependent systems. Traffic chaos ensued as streetlights failed.

Government officials this week traded blame, with the Energy Ministry claiming power plants are not receiving enough fuel and the Oil Ministry accusing the national power company of poor management.

Social media erupted with complaints. Tehran's mayor distanced the municipality from responsibility, citing localized power failures as the cause.

Why It Matters: Although Iran holds the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages remain a recurring issue during summer and winter.

Iran's energy subsidies keep bills low, encouraging overconsumption.

However, the situation is further exacerbated by severe mismanagement and aging infrastructure, which have greatly hindered the country's ability to meet the growing demand for gas.

But the public's patience is running out. The prospects of talks with the United States are dimming, the economy is worsening, and blackouts are becoming more frequent. Users on social media reported that after outages hit Tehran on February 11, people could be heard chanting against the Islamic republic from their windows.

What's Being Said: As the oil and energy ministries lash out at each other in the media, other government officials have sought to calm tensions.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, while conceding that power plants are not receiving enough gas, insisted this week that no single ministry is solely responsible.

Mohammad Allahdad, deputy head of the state-run Tavanir power company, pinned the energy imbalance on "illegally operated" bitcoin miners.

On social media, one user echoed a widely shared sentiment about Iran's nuclear program, writing: "What is the purpose of nuclear energy when we have neither electricity nor a bomb?"

Expert Opinion: Tehran-based academic Hatam Qaderi to Radio Farda on the possibility of nationwide protests: "Iran has been in a restless period for a long time, so anything can happen…. The Islamic republic has spent billions of dollars on the nuclear program and [expanding its regional influence] and people are experiencing ruin."

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Public outrage is mounting in Iran as the country's struggling economy worsens under crippling U.S. sanctions.

The national currency plunged to a record low on February 11 soon after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the restart of a "maximum pressure" campaign on the Islamic republic.

In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to dismiss the prospect of negotiations with the United States over Iran's disputed nuclear program.

A nuclear deal is seen as key to Washington lifting economic sanctions on Iran, which has witnessed rising unemployment and growing poverty in recent years.

Quick Turnabout

For months, Iranian officials have signaled the country was open to negotiating with Trump.

That is despite Trump withdrawing the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers and reimposing sanctions during his first term in office. In response, Tehran significantly expanded its nuclear program, though it maintains it is not looking to weaponize it.

Khamenei on January 28 appeared to give his blessing to talks with Trump, saying it's "possible to make a deal" with someone you know and can prepare for.

But the Iranian leader changed tack on February 7, saying it would "not be intelligent, wise, or honorable" to negotiate with Washington because it cannot be trusted.

"A portion of society pinned their hopes" on reformist President Masud Pezeshkian, who was elected in 2024, said Saeed Peyvandi, a professor of sociology at Paris 13 University.

"Now they will see their lives getting worse," Peyvandi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. "This will make the prospects of change in the [Islamic republic] impossible in the eyes of the people…. An angry and hungry society can take to the streets at any moment."

There have been violent protests in recent years over Iran's freefalling economy.

Frustration And Criticism

Khamenei's apparent rejection of negotiations with the United States has led to an outpouring of frustration and criticism on social media.

Some Iranians on X asked why an "unelected, lifelong official" gets to decide what is best for an entire nation.

Others called on Pezeshkian to resign if he was unable to deliver on his campaign pledge to ease tensions with the West.

Khamenei's comments as well as Trump's decision to resume a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran appeared to trigger the sudden drop of the value of the rial against the U.S. dollar.

The falling value of the rial in recent years has exacerbated the cost of living in Iran. A recent report by Iran's statistical authority said that around a third of Iranians earn less than $2 a day and struggle to afford basic necessities.

Economy journalist Zohreh Irani pointed to the depreciation of the rial and declared, "You will negotiate, I promise you."

Joking about the speed with which the rial is falling, Iranian poet Morteza Lotfi wrote on X, "We worked 9 hours today but we're poorer than the morning!"

Ata Mohamed Tabriz, a political analyst based in Turkey, told Radio Farda that Iranians have expressed "serious anger" since Khamenei's comments.

"There is a chance the anger will grow…. But it doesn't look like the Islamic republic is going to do anything about it," he added.

Hooman Askary and Elaheh Ravanshad of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.

U.S. President Donald Trump says he believes a deal with Iran over its nuclear program can be reached as Tehran is eager to negotiate and avoid an escalation that could involve a military option.

Speaking in an interview on Fox News late on February 10, Trump said Iranian officials were "worried and frightened" of the consequences should a deal not be reached, hours after Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian questioned Washington’s sincerity in seeking negotiations with Tehran.

"Everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of them. I would prefer that not happen," Trump said.

"You cannot allow Iran…to have a nuclear weapon, but there's two ways to stopping them: with bombs or a written piece of paper.... I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

Trump said Tehran has been weakened by a "massive loss" to its air defenses, an apparent reference to Israeli strikes in late October that analysts have said dealt a "significant blow" to Iran's ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week dismissed the prospect of nuclear talks with the United States, insisting negotiations would not address Iran's problems days after Trump had talked of making a deal where Iranians could "get on" with their lives.

On February 4, Trump signed an order to restore his "maximum economic pressure" policy on Iran aimed at hurting its oil exports and slowing its nuclear program, which Tehran claims is for civilian purposes.

A landmark deal with world powers in 2015 had restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

But Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement during his first term and reimposed sanctions in 2018, leading Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment and limit international inspections of its nuclear sites.

When he pulled out of the nuclear deal, Trump said Tehran was not living up to the spirit of the deal and was continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons. He also accused Iran of supporting extremist violence in the region, which Tehran denied.

Trump told Fox News that any new agreement with Tehran must include being able to monitor, inspect, and verify Iran's nuclear activities and destroy nuclear material or simply ensure that "it is no longer nuclear."

He did not give any further details of what a deal would encompass.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country is ready to negotiate with Washington regarding its nuclear program and related sanctions, but he said talks couldn’t take place under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy.

"The lifting of sanctions requires negotiations, but not within the framework of a 'maximum pressure' policy, because it would not be a negotiation but a form of surrender," Araqchi said on social media.

"Iran does not want to negotiate with a country that is simultaneously imposing new sanctions," he said.

Trump on February 4 signed an order to restore his "maximum economic pressure" policy on Iran aimed at hurting its oil exports and slowing its nuclear program.

He ordered the Treasury Department to impose the pressure through sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on individuals and entities that violate existing sanctions.

He also directed the Treasury and State Departments to implement a campaign aimed at "driving Iran's oil exports to zero."

As he signed the memo, Trump described it as very tough but also said he was open to a deal with Iran and expressed a willingness to talk to the Iranian leadership.

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.

A landmark deal with world powers in 2015 restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

But Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement during his first term and reimposed sanctions in 2018, leading Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment and limit international inspections of its nuclear sites.

When he pulled out of the nuclear deal, Trump said Tehran was not living up to the spirit of the deal and was continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons. He also accused Iran of supporting extremist violence in the region, which Tehran denied.

Araqchi said that “Iran has already made abundantly clear that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons."

He added it was “not difficult to reach practical assurances that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, provided that objective guarantees are also provided that hostile measures against Iran -- including economic pressures and sanctions -- will be effectively terminated.”

A day earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the prospect of nuclear talks with the United States, insisting that negotiations would not address Iran's problems days after Trump talked of making a deal where Iranians could "get on" with their lives.

"The reality that we must understand is that negotiating with America has no effect in resolving the country's problems," Khamenei said on February 7 in an annual address to Iranian Air Force officers.

The latest comments come as several thousand Iranians from across Europe rallied in Paris on February 8, urging world leaders to put more pressure on Iran’s ruling clerics.

"Instead of appeasing the mullahs, [the world] should stand side by side with the Iranian people," Maryam Radjavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, told the rally.

The council is the political wing of the People's Mujahedin of Iran, which Tehran regards as a "terrorist" organization.

"The Iranian region will fall like the Syrian regime fell -- at a speed that no one would have predicted," Riad al-Asaad, a former Syrian rebel leader, told the gathering by a video link.

Tehran has been accused by international organizations, Western leaders, and activists of rights violations, most recently linked to massive street protests that erupted across Iran in 2022 following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law.

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, and AFP

The United States has imposed sanctions on a network of people and firms accused of facilitating the sale of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to bring Iran’s crude exports to zero.

The new tranche of sanctions is an opening shot against Beijing and Tehran, designed to put China on notice without disrupting back-channel discussions to explore the potential for a deal with Iran that restricts its nuclear program.

Analysts say these sanctions -- which targeted individuals and vessels linked to the so-called shadow fleet of ships that transport embargoed Iranian oil -- could be effective but will not drive Iran’s oil exports down to zero. Tougher measures would be needed to do that -- going after Chinese institutions, such as banks that process oil transactions, for example-- but that could risk escalating tensions between the world’s top two economies.

“This is a toe in the water, but not because Trump necessarily wants to tread carefully,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Finance and Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. “This is a way to send a message and put everyone involved in moving Iranian oil on notice.”

Why Is Trump Hitting Iran?

Iran’s economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, which the U.S. State Department on February 6 said are used to fund “terrorists and proxy groups,” referring to Iran’s network of regional armed groups that oppose Israel and the U.S.

The new sanctions target over a dozen people and companies in China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, including Iranian and Indian citizens and crew management firms as well as a collection of tankers.

“These sanctions, and what is sure to follow, will almost certainly have an impact,” said Nader Itayim, a Middle East energy expert at the U.K.-based Argus Media. “The question really is how big that impact might be. And that will ultimately depend on how seriously the Trump administration chooses to go after the Iranian oil trade.”

The 2015 nuclear deal lifted U.S. sanctions, allowing Iran to sell oil. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions that cut exports to around 400,000 barrels per day.

Iran later boosted sales through sanctions evasion, rising Chinese demand, and looser U.S. enforcement under former President Joe Biden.

The new sanctions are part of the Trump administration’s return to the "maximum pressure" campaign that defined the Republican president’s Iran policy in his first term. Trump says Iran is "too close" to developing a nuclear bomb, while Tehran has long claimed its atomic program is peaceful.

“One of his objectives now is to bankrupt Iran,” Keatinge said. “Since [Trump] was last president, the sanctions community at large -- public and private -- have learned a lot about how to target a country's oil revenue and go after the broader infrastructure, largely from the experience with Russia's own shadow fleet.”

As part of its effort to evade Western sanctions on its oil exports and help fund its war against Ukraine, Russia has employed a shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers largely registered in non-Western jurisdictions to export the majority of its oil to market.

How Does The 'Shadow Fleet' Operate?

Iran’s own “shadow fleet” of tankers has been crucial to its ability to evade sanctions and covertly transport oil to China and other destinations.

This strategy includes ship-to-ship transfers, intermediaries, concealed financial transactions, and rebranding the oil to disguise its Iranian origin, making it appear to come from another country.

These methods have allowed Iran to keep moving oil and generating revenue despite sanctions.

According to United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit group that campaigns against threats it says are posed by Tehran, 587 million barrels of oil were moved by Iran in 2024 and 91 percent of those exports went to China.

China has long been the largest buyer of Iranian oil, but since 2022 it has stopped officially purchasing it to avoid U.S. sanctions, according to data from commodities research firm Kpler.

Despite the official stop in purchases, billions of dollars' worth of sanctioned Iranian oil have still found their way to China through the shadow fleet network used by Iran.

What's Trump’s Next Move?

U.S. officials have sought to prevent Iran from shipping the oil by pressing China and other countries not to participate, and imposing sanctions on vessels that it believed could help transport the oil.

The latest round of sanctions targeted vessels and shipping companies said to be involved in moving Iranian oil and Keatinge, the expert from RUSI, says this reflects the evolving playbook developed in recent years as the United States and its allies have targeted ships moving Russian oil.

He says these measures could be expanded beyond just targeting ships that move the oil to also sanction other aspects of the shadow fleet infrastructure, such as the companies that insure the vessels, the agencies that recruit the crews, the ports that receive the ships, and a broader diplomatic campaign to pressure the countries that register them.

Argus Media’s Itayim believes such moves are likely to scare off “the more risk-averse Chinese buyers” but would have a limited impact in curbing the flow of Iranian oil. To drive Iranian oil exports down further, he says, would require more pressure on Chinese ports and on buyers and intermediaries, including even banks in the country.

Doing so could have ripple effects on Washington’s ties with Beijing and escalate tensions, which were recently inflamed with a new round of tit-for-tat tariffs on February 4.

Keatinge says that curbing Iranian oil could be part of a broader conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the recent sanctions provide a way to ramp up pressure on Tehran without fueling additional tensions with Beijing.

“China is the big problem to solve if you want to squeeze Iranian oil, but does Trump want a sanctions war with Xi?” he said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with acting Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya and two other leaders of the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group in Tehran on February 8, Iranian state media reported.

The reports quoted Khamenei as saying the people of Gaza had defeated Israel and the United States in the recent conflict and photos were posted of Khamenei meeting Hayya, Muhammad Darwish, the head of Hamas's leadership council, and senior Hamas official Nizar Awadallah.

Iran supports Hamas in its war with Israel and views the Palestinian group as a key ally in its broader strategy to oppose Israeli and Western influence in the Middle East.

The West accuses Tehran of fomenting extremist violence in the region through the use of proxies, such as Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah, also listed as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and other countries.

The meeting came on the same day that Hamas freed three more Israeli hostages taken in an October 2023 attack on Israel.

Eli Sharabi, 52, Ohad Ben-Ami, 56, and Or Levi, 34, were first handed over to the Red Cross and then to the Israeli military. The hostages had been in captivity for 491 days.

Before they were handed over to the Red Cross, the hostages -- looking pale and exhausted -- were paraded on a stage before a crowd in Gaza by Hamas members, a move that Israel condemned.

"The shocking images we saw today will not pass without response," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said.

The hospital treating the released hostages said Levy and Sharabi were in a "poor medical condition" and that Ben-Ami was in a "severe nutritional state."

The Israeli Hostages and Missing Families Forum campaign group called the images "disturbing" and show that "we must get them all out."

"Our hearts tremble and our minds struggle to comprehend the sight of Or, who has returned to us in such a devastating state. His face bears witness to the hell he endured during 491 days in the hands of Hamas monsters," a statement by the Levy family stated.

With the latest returns, 73 out of the 251 hostages taken during the October 2023 attack still remain in Gaza. The Israeli military has said 34 of those taken are now dead.

In exchange for the released hostages, Israel is set to free 183 Palestinian prisoners, 18 of whom were sentenced to life in prison.

Israeli authorities on February 8 began the process of this prisoner release, freeing dozens of Palestinians from incarceration.

The truce and the hostage release, agreed on January 15 after months of negotiations, is the first step in a multistage process aimed at ending the 15-month conflict in Gaza.

The conflict broke out when Iran-backed Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.

Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.

With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order cutting hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. financial assistance to South Africa, the White House said on February 7.

The order cited a law that took effect last year on land expropriation, the country’s genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel, and its move to reinvigorate relations with Iran.

“The United States cannot support the government of South Africa’s commission of rights violations in its country or its undermining United States foreign policy, which poses national security threats to our Nation, our allies, our African partners, and our interests,” Trump's order said.

The order said South Africa’s new law seizes the agricultural property of ethnic minority Afrikaners without compensating them. Afrikaners are mostly white descendants of early Dutch and French settlers.

The order also said the United States will promote the “resettlement of Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation.”

The United States allocated nearly $440 million in assistance to South Africa in 2023, the most recent U.S. government data shows.

Trump has complained about South Africa's land policy, saying that "South Africa is confiscating land" and "certain classes of people" are being treated "very badly." In addition, South African-born billionaire Elon Musk, whom Trump has named as his "efficiency czar," has accused South Africa of having "openly racist ownership laws" and suggested white people were the victims.

The question of land ownership is politically charged in South Africa due to the dispossession of land from blacks during colonialism and apartheid. White landowners still own three-quarters of South Africa's freehold farmland. This contrasts with 4 percent owned by black people, who make up 80 percent of the population, according to the 2017 land audit.

President Cyril Ramaphosa defended South Africa's land policy last week, saying the government had not confiscated any land and the policy was aimed at ensuring equitable public access to land.

"The recently adopted Expropriation Act is not a confiscation instrument, but a constitutionally mandated legal process that ensures public access to land in an equitable and just manner as guided by the constitution," Ramaphosa said on X.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on February 5 that he will not attend a Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers' meeting later this month in South Africa.

Washington has also complained about the case brought by South Africa at the ICJ against Israel, accusing the close U.S. ally of genocide over its military assault on Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of people.

Israel says it has acted in self-defense following the deadly October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

The order didn't elaborate on South Africa's ties to Iran except to say that they were reinvigorated to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements.

With reporting by Reuters

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dismissed the prospect of nuclear talks with the United States, insisting that negotiations would not address Iran's problems days after President Donald Trump talked of making a deal where Iranians could "get on" with their lives.

"The reality that we must understand is that negotiating with America has no effect in resolving the country's problems," Khamenei said on February 7 in an annual address to Iranian Air Force officers.

The supreme leader, who has the final say on all state matters, insisted it would "not be intelligent, wise, or honorable" to negotiate with Washington.

His comments come as Iranian officials have for months been signaling Tehran's openness to talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump himself has called for a new nuclear deal with Iran, saying he wants Iran to "peacefully grow and prosper" as long it does not have nuclear weapons.

The Republican president on February 4 brought back the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was the cornerstone of his policy toward the Islamic republic during his first term in office, though Trump also said he would like to start working on a "verified nuclear peace agreement."

In 2018, Trump pulled the United States out of a landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. He also reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under the terms of that agreement.

Khamenei pointed to Trump's abrogation of the nuclear deal as evidence that "negotiating with America is pointless."

The Iranian leader's comments have caused a stir on social media, with some saying his remarks effectively rule out talks with the United States. Others argue that he did not issue a formal ban on negotiations with Trump and his comments should not be taken at face value.

Precisely 12 years ago, during his 2013 address to air force officers, Khamenei charged that "negotiating with America will not solve problems."

As he was delivering those comments, Iranian and American officials were preparing to hold another round of secret talks that eventually paved the way for negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I delve into U.S. President Donald Trump’s apparent reluctance to return to his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran and his explicit desire for a “verified nuclear peace agreement” with Tehran.

What You Need To Know

• Trump 'Torn' Over Increasing Iran Sanctions: Trump on February 4 signed a memo to bring back the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was the cornerstone of his policy toward the Islamic republic during his first term in office. But he said he was "torn" about signing the memo, which aims to drive Iran’s oil sales down to zero. Iran has dismissed the move, but has also said it can offer Trump assurances that it is not trying to weaponize its nuclear program.

• 'Honor' Killings Epidemic: Every two days, a woman becomes a victim of femicide in Iran, according to an analysis by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. The New York-based NGO Stop Femicide Iran says the majority of women are killed in the name of preserving the family’s "honor."

• Pahlavi Says He's Been Barred From Attending The Munich Security Conference: Prominent opposition figure and Iran’s former crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, said on February 6 that he was “blocked” by the German Foreign Ministry from attending this year’s Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, despite receiving an invitation. Pahlavi accused Germany of trying to “appease the Islamic republic” and “silence the Iranian people.” The German Foreign Ministry has not directly addressed the claim, but a spokesperson told Radio Farda that conference organizers "independently" decide who can attend the gathering.

The Big Issue

Sanctions With A Chance Of Talks

When Trump hit Iran with sanctions during his first term in office, Iran’s oil sales plummeted but they did not quite reach zero.

While signing the memo in the White House to bring back his "maximum pressure" policy, Trump said it was “very tough” but added that he was “torn” about signing it. He said Iran was “too close” to weaponizing its nuclear weapon.

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.

He also expressed an openness to meeting his Iranian counterpart Masud Pezeshkian, but notably, he later wrote in a Truth Social post that he “would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper.”

Trump in 2018 withdrew the United States from a landmark nuclear deal negotiated by President Barack Obama, which included a mechanism whereby UN inspectors ensured Iran was keeping its nuclear program peaceful.

Why It Matters: Trump instructed relevant authorities to strictly enforce existing sanctions and later target a network facilitating Iran's oil sales to China.

Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden was widely believed to have relaxed the enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, in part to keep prices down, which contributed to a rise in Iranian oil sales. What also helped with that were Iran mastering sanctions-evading tactics and a Chinese appetite for Iranian oil.

“China is likely to respond negatively to any sanctions that touch its own banks, refiners, or ports. If the sanctions are limited to tankers or intermediaries, I doubt we'll see much of a reaction from Beijing," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

Also notable is that Trump chose to issue a memorandum, which is generally less formal than an executive order.

“I believe this was a signal, and to make sure this signal was received in Tehran, Trump said several times that he hoped he would not have to enforce the memo,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

What's Being Said: The message appears to have been received by the Iranians, who dismissed the efficacy of the "maximum pressure" campaign but also sought to reassure Trump that Tehran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

Pezeshkian insisted that Tehran knew how to bypass sanctions while Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the policy would “fail again.”

But the top Iranian diplomat later took to X to say that “it is not difficult to reach practical assurances” that Iran won’t develop nuclear weapons, in an apparent response to Trump’s concern about Tehran building nukes.

In return, Araqchi said, Iran wants “objective guarantees” that sanctions “will be effectively terminated.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who last week appeared to give his blessing to talks with Trump, struck a different tone after the "maximum pressure" announcement and said on February 7 that it "would not be smart or honorable to negotiate with such a government."

Expert Opinion: “The path that Trump has adopted vis-a-vis Iran is vastly different from what many expected, both in terms of statements and actions,” said Azizi.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Rebel leader-turned-Syrian ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa has received scores of foreign delegations since seizing power in Damascus in December -- but not one of them was Iranian.

To drive his point home, Sharaa made trips to Iran's regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Turkey a priority soon after being declared Syria's interim president.

Iran being frozen out by Syria's new rulers is hardly surprising. After all, Tehran spent billions of dollars, dispatched military advisers, and set up proxies in Syria to help former President Bashar al-Assad crack down on dissent and fight rebel forces opposed to his government when civil war broke out in 2011.

"After tens of thousands being killed by Iran, its allies, and proxies in Syria, there's no love lost for them nor much of an urge for rapprochement," said Phillip Smyth, an expert on developments in the Middle East and Iranian proxies.

'Door Closed' To Tehran

Even conservative Iranian media see Sharaa's Saudi trip as a signal to Iran that Damascus has moved out of Tehran's orbit.

"I can't see how it wouldn't be interpreted as a message to Tehran, given Saudi is one of their major regional foes," said Smyth.

Sharaa, head of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has long tried to change his public image. He has publicly renounced his ties to Al-Qaeda and tried to portray himself as a pragmatist and tolerant leader.

He stopped using his rebel moniker Abu Muhammad al-Jolani after toppling the Assad government and has set out to lift sanctions on Syria and rebuild the country after over a decade of civil war.

Masoud Aflak, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, said Sharaa's Saudi trip was "an important step" toward lifting Western sanctions, acquiring funds to rebuild Syria, and establishing security in the post-Assad era.

"The interim president is aware that to lift sanctions, Syria needs a country that can be its voice on the world stage," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Saudi Arabia's overture to Sharaa is notable in that Riyadh views Islamist movements as an existential threat.

"Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity based in pragmatism when dealing with Syria," Smyth said. "Now, Saudis, along with other states (including European ones) are testing the waters. They're trying to see what the next chapter will be in Damascus and have more of a chance for influence than with the last regime."

Aflak said the primary concern for the Saudis is to ensure there is no power vacuum in Syria that extremist groups and Iran-backed proxies can use.

"Instability in Syria will not be contained to Syria and will spill over to other countries," Aflak argued.

Sharaa's trip carries another message -- this one directed at Sunni regional actors, according to Smyth.

"It's opening its doors to competitive actors with their own regional geopolitical issues," he said. "Qatar and Saudi come to mind. There's already a relationship with Turkey. The door has been shut to Iran."

Even Russia Gets A Nod

The only other state ally of Assad was Russia, which helped the former Syrian leader maintain his grip on power throughout his reign -- particularly in the years after its major military intervention in 2015 -- and took him in when he was pushed from power.

Unlike Iran, Russia seems to have had some success connecting with Syria's new rulers. It has maintained contact with Damascus and even sent a delegation to speak to Sharaa last week in the hopes of salvaging its military bases in Syria.

"Iran tried to fundamentally change Syria and was overt in these measures. It was sectarian and ideological in nature," Smyth said. "Russia, despite its clear use of cruel violence against civilians, still was a bit more pragmatic."

Crucially, Smyth added, Russia "provides a better counterweight" to Western powers looking cautiously to establish relations with Damascus.

However, Iran, having watched its loose network of regional allies and proxies unravel over the past year, has little to offer Syria.

"Even their oil doesn't carry much value when links to the Gulf have been renewed," Smyth said.

Room To Wiggle Back?

Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of its regional network of state and nonstate actors. Losing Assad has, therefore, dealt a heavy blow to the so-called axis of resistance.

The Iranian government has not ruled out establishing relations with Sharaa's government, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying Iran endorses any government elected by the Syrian people.

But that message runs contrary to comments by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who last month backed "Syrian youth" to rise against Sharaa.

For his part, Sharaa does not seem interested in striking up a relationship with Tehran. He has banned Israelis and Iranians from entering Syria and is reportedly seeking compensation from the Islamic republic for damages caused during the civil war.

That basically leaves Iran with one option: Capitalize on reports of sectarian violence under the new interim government to prop up armed Shi'ite militias to challenge Sharaa.

"They may try to rally some support for violence within Syria. Instability and the crafting of it has always been a usable option for Iran," Smyth said.

But given Iran's many challenges at home and abroad, that is easier said than done.

With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad of RFE/RL's Radio Farda

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a proposal on February 4 under which displaced Palestinians would leave the Gaza Strip, allowing the United States to take ownership of the coastal territory and develop it economically into a “phenomenal” place where many nationalities could live in peace.

Trump said this would occur after the resettlement of the Palestinian people to other countries to get them out of what he said was a “hell hole” of demolished buildings following more than a year of war between Israel and Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

Trump made the surprise proposal at a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying such a drastic move is necessary because other ideas to end decades of conflict between the Palestinian people and Israelis have not worked.

His proposal on the Gaza Strip would see the United States taking it over and would appear to upend years of U.S. policy calling for a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Trump said the United States would work to dismantle all unexploded bombs and other weapons in the territory and clear away destroyed buildings before economically developing the area.

"If it's necessary, we'll do that, we're going to take over that piece, we're going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it'll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of," Trump added.

The president did not immediately offer details on where the Palestinians would be resettled, but said he would support resettling them "permanently" in other countries. Earlier in the day he repeated his call for Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab states to take in Gazans. Hamas has adamantly insisted it wants to remain in Gaza.

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Trump may have floated this idea to raise the stakes after Arab countries refused his request to take in Palestinians.

"Now, he’s cranking up the pressure: If you won't take them, we’ll remove them ourselves and take control of Gaza," Dubowitz said on X. "Classic Trump: Go to the extreme, making what once seemed outrageous suddenly look like the reasonable middle ground."

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement that its call for an independent Palestinian state was a "firm, steadfast, and unwavering position."

The statement noted Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country's de facto ruler, has said Saudi Arabia will not stop working toward the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.

Trump said he had discussed his proposal with Netanyahu during their meeting at the White House. He also said he had raised it with other leaders of countries in the Middle East and claimed it had been met favorably.

Netanyahu said Trump sees a different future for the Gaza Strip, which he said has been the source of so many "trials and tribulations" for the Israeli people.

"He has a different idea," Netanyahu said. "It's something that could change history and it's worthwhile really pursuing this avenue.”

Just two weeks into his second term, Trump was hosting Netanyahu to discuss the future of the Gaza cease-fire, the release of hostages, and a renewed push for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

With reporting by Reuters and AP

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order on February 4 to restore his "maximum economic pressure" policy on Iran aimed at hurting its oil exports and slowing its nuclear program.

Ahead of a meeting at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump signed a presidential memorandum reinstating a policy that Trump imposed during his first administration.

Trump's memo orders the U.S. Treasury Department to impose "maximum economic pressure" on Iran through sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on individuals and entities that violate existing sanctions.

It also directs the Treasury and State departments to implement a campaign aimed at "driving Iran's oil exports to zero."

U.S. sanctions on Iran's energy sector have been in place since 2018, when Trump during his first term in office withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under its terms. Iranian oil sales plummeted as a result.

But in recent years, a combination of Iran mastering sanctions-evading tactics and Washington's reluctance under the Biden administration to strictly enforce the sanctions led to Iran increasing its exports.

"I would expect tougher U.S. action against countries involved in the movement, or where tankers engage in ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

The rise in Iran's oil sale is in part due to China's appetite for Iranian oil. Tehran offers Beijing a steep discount to take its sanctioned oil, making it worthwhile for China to take on the risk of bypassing U.S. sanctions.

"On paper, China doesn't take any Iranian oil, it's always camouflaged in China's customs data as Malaysian or [Emirati] crude oil," said Brew.

"But China is likely to respond negatively to any sanctions that touch its own banks, refiners, or ports. If the sanctions are limited to tankers or intermediaries, I doubt we'll see much of a reaction from Beijing."

As he signed the memo, Trump described it as very tough but also said he was open to a deal with Iran and expressed a willingness to talk to the Iranian leadership.

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump said. Asked how close Tehran is to a weapon, Trump said, "They're too close."

Aside from abrogating the nuclear deal, Trump in his first term ordered the killing of one of Iran's top generals in 2020, for which Iran has vowed vengeance.

After signing the memo, Trump commented on Iranian threats against him that were revealed by the Justice Department last year during the U.S. presidential campaign. Trump said there would be a drastic response if he were assassinated.

"I’ve left instructions if they do it, they get obliterated. There won’t be anything left,” he said.

Vice President J.D. Vance would become president if Trump died, and he would not necessarily be bound by any instructions left by Trump.

Later on February 4, during a joint news conference with Netanyahu, Trump said he wanted Iran to be peaceful and successful, praising Iranians as an “unbelievable group of people.”

He said he hated imposing the maximum pressure campaign during his first term in office and “hate to do it just as much now.”

But he reiterated his staunch opposition to Tehran developing a nuclear weapon and said if Iran becomes a nuclear-armed nation, that would be “very unfortunate” for them.

"I say this to Iran, who's listening very intently: I would love to be able to make a great deal. A deal where you can get on with your lives," Trump said at the news conference.

The president said Iran would find it very beneficial if it can convince him that they won’t develop a nuclear weapon, saying if that were the case, “I think they are going to have an unbelievable future.”

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week appeared to green-light talks with Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif earlier appealed to Trump to "choose rationality" and resume nuclear negotiations.

A British court has sentenced former soldier Daniel Khalife to 14 years and three months in prison for spying for Iran and escaping prison.

Khalife, whose prison break in 2023 made international headlines, was found guilty of spying for Tehran last November.

The judge, Parmjit Kaur Cheema-Grubb, described Khalife during his sentencing on February 3 as a "dangerous fool" who was initially driven by "a selfish desire to show off" rather than intending to harm the interests of the United Kingdom.

"The mere fact you started on this dangerous and fantastical plan demonstrates your immaturity and lack of wisdom," Cheema-Grubb said.

London-born Khalife, 23, joined the British Army in 2017, and it was not long before he started collecting sensitive information and sharing it with Iranian agents. He was paid in cash and insisted to his handlers that he would rise through the army ranks "very easily."

Khalife escaped from London’s Wandsworth Prison in September 2023 while awaiting trial and spent three days on the run, sparking a massive manhunt.

With reporting by the BBC

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration appears to be shuttering Washington's main international aid arm amid a blitz of executive actions targeting government spending, a move international humanitarian organizations have warned could have catastrophic consequences.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on February 3 that he is now the acting director of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and that he would end what he described as its "insubordination" to Trump's agenda.

"There are a lot of functions of USAID that are going to continue, that are going to be part of American foreign policy, but it has to be aligned with American foreign policy," Rubio told reporters during a visit to El Salvador.

CBS News, citing three U.S. officials it did not identify, reported that the agency will be merged into the State Department, with significant cuts in the workforce, but will remain a humanitarian aid entity. Reuters cited an unnamed senior White House official as saying Trump is considering merging USAID with the State Department.

Leading the charge against USAID is Elon Musk, Trump's point man on slashing government spending, who claims the administration can cut $1 trillion from the U.S. deficit and is positioning his drive as a battle against corruption.

USAID employees earlier received a notice that the agency's headquarters in Washington would be closed to personnel on February 3 "at the direction of Agency leadership," CNN and the Associated Press cited multiple sources as saying.

The website of USAID, which the UN says provides more than 40 percent of all humanitarian aid globally, was down on February 3, and Trump claimed the agency has "been run by a bunch of radical lunatics."

"We're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on USAID's future, he told reporters on February 2.

Trump's comments followed reports by CNN and Reuters that two senior USAID security officials had been placed on administrative leave after they tried to prevent representatives of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Trump-established organization led by Musk, from accessing agency computer systems.

Musk himself called USAID, which administers tens of billions of dollars in U.S. foreign assistance approved by Congress, a "criminal organization" and that it is "time for it to die."

A group of senior Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on February 2 sent a letter to Rubio expressing "deep concern" over the Trump administration's moves targeting an organization they said was set up "to ensure that we can deploy development expertise and U.S. foreign assistance quickly, particularly in times of crisis, to meet our national security goals."

"Trump and Musk are illegally attempting to shut down USAID," U.S. Senator Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii, wrote on X on February 3. "The consequences of this are deadly and they are global. It is going to make all of us less safe."

The State Department under Rubio on January 24 ordered a freeze on new funding for almost all U.S. foreign assistance programs as part of Trump's drive to align the programs with his foreign policy goals.

Since assuming his post last month, Rubio has said of U.S. foreign aid under Trump: "Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?"

Trump's executive order called for a 90-day pause in U.S. foreign development assistance to assess efficiencies and "consistency with United States foreign policy." It grants Rubio the power to waive the three-month pause for "specific programs."

Humanitarian groups and nongovernmental organizations across the globe voiced concern over the fate of USAID after Trump's executive order.

A pause in funding for Afghanistan "would be catastrophic for an operation for more than 22 million Afghans that need aid," Jan Egeland, the secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.

Since Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine in February 2022, USAID has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in humanitarian aid, development assistance, and direct budget support.

Trump has criticized the amount of aid -- including billions of dollars in weapons -- that the Biden administration has provided to Ukraine.

Svitlana Musiak, a researcher at the Kyiv-based Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), an NGO, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that a suspension of USAID funding to Ukraine could negatively impact civil-society programs and signal "reduced U.S. support for democratic reforms and economic stability in the country."

At the same time, some representatives of Ukrainian civil society support an audit, including Olena Trehub, executive director of the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission and a member of the Anti-Corruption Council at the Defense Ministry.

On February 2, Trehub wrote on Facebook that she had "always emphasized the need to reform USAID, as, by monitoring the effectiveness of projects, she saw how enormous budgets pass through this government agency and how often the results leave much to be desired."

At the same time, she noted that USAID had supported critically important reforms, civil society, humanitarian, and infrastructure projects that had a significant impact on Ukraine's development.

Speaking to CBS News on February 2, Republican Congressman Brian Mast of Florida said he is working with Rubio "to make sure that there's the appropriate command and control" of agencies like USAID.

Mast, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives, said he would support "removing USAID as a separate department" and having it fall under "other parts" of the State Department.

The senior Senate Democrats said in their February 2 letter to Rubio that "any effort to merge or fold USAID into the Department of State should be, and by law must be, previewed, discussed, and approved by Congress."

"Congress has also made clear that any attempt to reorganize or redesign USAID requires advance consultation with, and notification to, Congress," they wrote.

With reporting by Reuters and AP

Iran was still reeling from news in late January that a 17-year-old girl was fatally stabbed by her father in the country's northwest when news broke that another 17-year-old was shot by her father and brother while holding her infant in her arms.

The two women, Kani Abdollahi and Atefeh Zaghibi, are the latest victims in a year that has seen rising violence against women committed by their own family members across Iran.

According to an analysis by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, at least 133 women and girls were killed in the last year for "honor" or other reasons by their husbands, fathers, and brothers – meaning that every two days one female becomes a victim of femicide in the country.

The review of reported cases in Iran within the last year of the Iranian calendar, which consists of 318 days, shows that only three murders of women were committed by individuals outside the victim's family, with motives such as theft or sexual assault for those cases. Only one case involved a foreign national.

Femicide is described by rights advocates as killing with a gender-related motive and typically corresponds with preventing or punishing girls and women for acts deemed socially unacceptable for their gender in more conservative societies.

Stop Femicide Iran, an NGO based in New York, says that a majority of femicide cases in Iran are excused as "honor" killings or family disputes where a female member is targeted for acts that allegedly go against societal traditions, religious demands, or the family's reputation.

In the case of Abdollahi, she was reportedly killed on January 25 due to her friendship with a young man. Iranian media reported that Zaghibi's January 29 death at the hands of her father and brother came after she had eloped two years ago.

Femicide By The Numbers

There are no official statistics on domestic murders in Iran, and according to the NGO Iran Human Rights, murders of women are often not reported or are falsely reported as suicides or accidents.

The Iranian newspaper Shargh reported that at least 165 women between 2021 and 2023 were killed by male family members. The one year total of 133 for 2024 found by RFE/RL indicates an increase in cases.

Apart from the issue of family murders, a review by RFE/RL of official Iranian government statistics also shows that more than 74,000 women visited forensic centers for physical examinations due to spousal abuse. Estimates by researchers and rights activists also put the actual number of domestic violence cases in the country far higher, with some estimates saying it could be up to 100 times larger than the official number of reported instances.

A breakdown of the 133 family murder cases in 2024 also shows that 51 of them were categorized as "family disputes," something that rights groups say fits a broader trend in Iran of authorities looking to hide honor killings from official statistics by misreporting them. A similar trend occurs with rapes, which are often categorized as "harassment" in state-run media and police reports.

Iranian law is based on Islamic Shari'a rules and practices. Those rules often give fathers and husbands the power to decide if and how people who kill women in their family should pay for the crime, allowing for lenient sentences if those deciding on the punishment have been involved in or condone the killing.

Article 630 of Iran's Penal Code also states that "whenever a man sees his wife committing adultery with a man and knows that the wife has consented to it, he can kill both of them at the same time, and if the woman is innocent, he can only kill the man."

Honor Killings On The Rise?

Lawyer and human rights expert Saeed Dehghan told RFE/RL that this article often leads to judges handing down lenient sentences in honor-killing cases, often choosing not to impose the maximum 10 years.

Added to this, he says, is a lack of legal protections for women in the country. A bill looking to provide safeguards for women has sat on the shelves of Iran's parliament since it was introduced in 2013, and it has not moved forward despite the growing number of cases of violence against women.

In recent years, several recent murders of women claimed as honor killings have galvanized the Iranian public.

One was 14-year-old Romina Ashrafi, who was killed by her father in 2020 after she eloped with a 28-year-old man. Her family opposed the union and Ashrafi's father arranged for the couple's arrest. Despite expressing fears for her safety, she was returned to her family and was killed while she slept by her father using a sickle.

Another prominent recent case was 17-year-old Mona Heydari, who was beheaded by her husband after she had fled the abusive relationship to Turkey and then returned. Footage of the husband parading her head around their city circulated online and was published by some media.

Ashrafi's father and Heydari's husband were arrested and tried, but both men were handed sentences of less than 10 years for the murders.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL's Iran correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm exploring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's recent comments on engaging the United States and whether Iran is ready to make big concessions.

What You Need To Know

• Khamenei Gives Blessing To Talks With Trump: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei this week appeared to green-light talks with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration in the hopes of lifting sanctions. Iranian officials had been signaling a desire to talk to Trump, but talks can't take place without Khamenei's say-so.

• Iran Frozen Out As World Warms Up To Syria's New Rulers: Syria's new government has reportedly held more than 200 diplomatic engagements since coming to power on December 8, including with Western and Arab delegations and, notably, Russian diplomats. Iran, however, is nowhere to be seen. Iran and Russia helped former President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel forces that now run the country. The Kremlin seems to have established some rapport with Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, but the Islamic republic has been entirely frozen out.

• U.S. Federal Funding Freeze Spooks Iran-Focused Advocacy Groups: NGOs and advocacy groups that focus on Iran have raised concerns about their work being impacted by the Trump administration's decision to pause federal grants and loans. The groups, some of which work on facilitating Internet access and monitoring human rights violations in Iran, argue that Tehran stands to benefit from the funding freeze. Hard-line media in Iran have welcomed the decision. A judge has blocked the temporary freeze, but the White House has said it will pursue its implementation.

The Big Issue

Expectations Vs. Reality: What Is Iran Ready To Give Up?

Khamenei told a gathering of state officials and envoys from Muslim nations on January 28 that Tehran should be wary of "enmity and grudges" concealed behind "diplomatic smiles."

But he followed that up by saying that when "you know the person you're dealing with," it's possible to "make a deal but you also know what to do."

This comment is widely seen as a green light to sit down with the Trump administration -- something that seemed impossible just a few years ago.

Why It Matters: Iran has suffered setbacks abroad and is facing challenges at home, not least a struggling economy and weak currency -- both exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.

Iran wants the sanctions lifted, but the question is what Khamenei is willing to negotiate away. Iran is at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades. With its network of regional proxies politically and militarily degraded, the only real bargaining chips Tehran is left with are its advanced nuclear and missile programs.

There are no good options for Iran: It insists its nuclear program is peaceful and meant to generate power, while its missile program is an integral part of its defensive doctrine. Budging on either will upset the Islamic republic's core support base, but not making any meaningful concessions will only add to international pressure and further sink the economy.

What's Being Said: Supporters of engaging Trump have taken Khamenei's comments to mean he is backing "cautious negotiations" with the U.S. president.

But opponents of talks with the West insist that it would be "naive" to take Khamenei's remarks as a green light to open negotiations with Trump.

Khamenei has perfected equivocation, speaking in vague terms that open up his comments to interpretation. He does not like to publicly commit to a position, likely because it shields him from taking responsibility when things go south.

Expert Opinion: "Khamenei's main plan is to buy time and manage the situation to navigate the second Trump presidency with minimal risk, based on the implicit acknowledgment of the regime's weakened position both domestically and internationally," says Ali Afshari, a U.S.-based political analyst and adjunct professor at George Washington University.

What's Ahead

These are the stories we'll be watching between now and the next issue of the Farda Briefing:

• Iran has been waiting to receive advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia for nearly two years. A military official's comment this week about Tehran having purchased the warplanes has observers wondering whether delivery is close.
• Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref will attend a summit of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on January 31-February 1.
• RFE/RL's Radio Farda has interviewed Oscar-nominated Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose movie The Seed of the Sacred Fig is up for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film in March. You can watch a sneak peek of the interview here.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip degraded the fighting capabilities of Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group.

But the militant group remains the dominant power in the Palestinian enclave, despite suffering heavy losses during 15 months of Israeli bombardment.

“Hamas is gradually taking back control even if it is very much diminished,” said Nimrod Goren, head of the Jerusalem-based Mitvim Institute.

Israel had pledged to continue its war in Gaza until it eliminated Hamas. But the sides agreed a cease-fire and hostage-exchange deal on January 15.

Hamas carried out an attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry, destroyed much of its infrastructure, and displaced most of its 2.3 million residents.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, lost most of its political and military leadership during the war. Its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in a suspected Israeli attack in Iran in July. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.

Israel claims that it killed up to 20,000 Hamas fighters during the war, a figure contested by the militant group, which has not said how many of its members were killed.

No Alternatives

Despite its losses, Hamas has retained its tight grip on power in Gaza.

“Hamas doesn't have to be as strong as before because it is still stronger than any other alternative,” said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Even so, the group appears to be replenishing its ranks.

Senior U.S. officials have said that Hamas has recruited as many new fighters as it lost during the war, although they are not considered to be as experienced.

Drevon said Israel’s strategy to solve the Hamas issue militarily has failed. The alternative, he said, is a political settlement with the Palestinians.

But that is opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right members of his ruling coalition.

“For them, there is no political compromise,” said Drevon about the Israeli far-right. “It's only about reaching their full victory."

On January 19, Israel’s far-right national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from Netanyahu’s cabinet to protest the Gaza truce deal. He said the agreement would “destroy all of Israel’s achievements.”

Iran's Ally

Drevon said that, despite surviving the war with Israel, “replenishing its arsenal will be more difficult” for Hamas, which has received some financial and military support from Iran.

Israel has imposed a land, sea, and air blockade on Gaza since 2007. It controls Gaza’s 12-kilometer-long land border with Egypt. Israel had repeatedly accused Hamas of smuggling weapons through underground tunnels from Egypt.

He said that Iran is likely to continue supporting Hamas, but bankrolling the group will no longer be a main concern.

“Iran's priority is Iran,” Drevon said. “For them, what matters is to find a new agreement with Western countries and the U.S.”

Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years after suffering a series of major blows.

During a punishing 2024, Tehran saw its regional influence diminished and its military deterrence against archfoes Israel and the United States weakened.

The Islamic republic has tough decisions to make after U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, which Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from in 2018 during his first term, also expires later this year.

Even if Iranian assistance shrinks, Hamas is still likely to be a major player in the Palestinian territories, given how entrenched it is in Gaza and the support it maintains in the occupied West Bank.

“It's not going to be destroyed,” said Drevon.