Iran
Factbox: Timeline Of The Iranian Nuclear Dispute
(epa) Below is a timeline of the unfolding international dispute surrounding Iran's nuclear program. While Tehran maintains that its program is entirely peaceful, the United States accuses Iran of secretly attempting to develop nuclear weapons, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Tehran has failed to persuade it that its program is purely nonmilitary.
23 May 2007 -- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says in a new report, issued to coincide with the expiration of a Security Council deadline for Tehran, that Iran continues to defy UN Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment and has in fact expanded such work. The IAEA adds that the UN nuclear agency's ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran has declined due to lack of access to sites. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges constructive efforts on both sides and estimates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within "three to eight years" -- if it chose that path.
17 May 2007 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says alongside outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the United States and Britain will seek new UN sanctions against Iran if it continues to resist calls for it to halt sensitive areas of its nuclear program. Bush is speaking the same day that a senior Iranian official says Tehran has expanded work on its nuclear facility at Natanz.
2 May 2007 -- A foreign affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a conservative daily that Iran is capable of the "mass production" of centrifuges used for enriching uranium.
28 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana calls on the United States to open a direct "channel of communication" with Iran on all topics, adding that it remains unclear "how far the U.S. is willing to engage" with Iran.
25-26 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy official Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani restart talks aimed at finding a nuclear compromise.
April 19, 2007 -- An IAEA official says in a leaked letter that Iran has assembled roughly 1,300 centrifuges into eight cascades and begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz. The Iranian ambassador to the IAEA says that "our enrichment is continuing under the safeguards of the IAEA, the inspectors and cameras are controlling all activities, and the report of how many centrifuge machines and the latest status of the activities in Natanz will be reported by the director-general."
11 April 2007 -- A spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicts that Iran will have the capacity to build its own nuclear bomb in four to six years, leaving time for diplomatic efforts to counter any potential danger.
10 April 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not accept any suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities and urges world powers to accept the "new reality" of the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
9 April 2007 -- Iran says the country's uranium-enrichment program is ready to operate on an "industrial level."
broadening UN sanctions against Iran for its continuing failure to halt uranium enrichment. Iranian officials call the new measures "unnecessary and unjustified." Officials confirm that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad canceled a New York visit in which he vowed to address the Security Council ahead of the sanctions vote; Tehran blames U.S. delays over visas for Ahmadinejad's entourage.
24 March 2007 -- The Security Council unanimously approves a resolution20 March 2007 -- Russia and Iran reject a report in "The New York Times" of March 19 suggesting that Moscow told Tehran it would withhold fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant unless Iran complied with UN demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
15 March 2007 -- Diplomats say the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany have agreed on a draft resolution imposing new sanctions on Iran for defying demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
12 March 2007 -- The Russian company building Iran's first nuclear power station at Bushehr, Atomstroiexport, announces that the facility's launch will be postponed due to a two-month payment delay preventing the delivery of uranium fuel.
11 February 2007 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, says the Russian supplier for its planned Bushehr nuclear plant has signaled a delay over delinquent payments. He suggests the real problem lies on the Russian side and that he hopes the plant is not being "politicized."
aid programs to Iran as part of the UN sanctions targeting Tehran's nuclear program. The Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, counters that the move will not affect his country's enrichment work.
8 March 2007 -- The United Nations' nuclear guardian, the IAEA, votes unanimously to cut almost half its5 March 2007 -- IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei says Tehran has not convinced the UN nuclear watchdog of the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and an investigation into that program remains at a "stalemate" until Iran provides full cooperation.
26 February 2007 -- The United States says it is seeking "incremental" steps to pressure Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.
25 February 2007 -- President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear program is unstoppable and, in a show of its growing technical prowess the same day, Iran reportedly fires a rocket into space for the first time.
23 February 2007 -- U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says Washington will "do everything" it can to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and has not taken "any options off the table," spurring further speculation that U.S. officials would consider military intervention.
22 February 2007 -- The IAEA issues a report confirming that Iran has failed to halt uranium-enrichment activities, as demanded by the UN Security Council. The report also notes that Iran has expanded the program, installing two cascades with many dozens of centrifuges at Natanz and nearing completion on two more cascades.
21 February 2007 - The UN Security Council's 60-day deadline ends for Iran to halt uranium enrichment. Iranian parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel warns that a delay by Russia in completing the Bushehr nuclear plant would harm bilateral ties. His comments came after Russian nuclear officials' claim that lagging payments from Tehran could delay start-up of the facility.
future and destiny" of Iran, and notes that its oil and gas reserves "would not last forever."
17 February 2007 -- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says "nuclear energy is the11 February 2007 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says Iran wants talks to resolve its nuclear dispute and will cooperate with the IAEA, but Tehran will not suspend uranium enrichment. Iranian officials also say they will allow IAEA cameras at its underground nuclear facility at Natanz. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy calls Ahmadinejad's offer of talks while continuing enrichment "totally unacceptable."
8 February 2007 -- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says that while he does not expect anything as "irrational" as an attack on Iran, his country would strike back at U.S. interests around the world if it were attacked. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council dismisses Khamenei's comment as "unprovoked" and says President George W. Bush "has made it clear we have no intention of going to war with Iran." Bush's chief spokesman says flatly, "We are not invading Iran."
1 February 2007 -- The French president's office essentially retracts a recent suggestion by Jacques Chirac that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be "very dangerous," calling such an eventuality unacceptable and describing Iran's nuclear program as "opaque and therefore dangerous for the region."
31 January 2007 -- Iran's embassy in Moscow denies a British newspaper report that North Korea is giving it technical help to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one carried out by Pyongyang in October.
28 January 2007 -- After talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, visiting Russian security chief Igor Ivanov says "Russia is determined" to finish Bushehr nuclear power plant, in southern Iran, on time.
26 January 2007 -- IAEA chief Muhammad el-Baradei warns that a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could have "catastrophic consequences" and would only encourage Iran to develop an atomic bomb. "Are you going to bomb the knowledge?" he asks.
22 January 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki confirms reports that 38 UN nuclear inspectors have been prohibited from entering the country in a list that was reportedly delivered to the IAEA; the next day, Tehran stresses that cooperation with the IAEA continues, despite the ban. The European Union urges all countries to enforce the recently passed UN sanctions against Iran.
12 January 2007 -- Outgoing U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte tells the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that Iran is capable of weathering shocks to its economy, noting record oil revenues and manageable debt.
10 January 2007 -- The United States urges China to reconsider a $16 billion energy deal with Iran on the development of oil and gas fields whose outlines were affirmed in a memorandum of understanding in December 2006.
27 December 2006 -- Iran's parliament passes a bill that obliges the government to "revise its cooperation level" with the UN's nuclear watchdog and, at the same time, continue to pursue the country's civilian nuclear program.
25 December 2006 -- President Ahmadinejad responds to UN Security Council Resolution 1737 by saying the sanctions will have "no impact" on Iran's nuclear program.
23 December 2006 -- The 15-member UN Security Council unanimously adopts a binding resolution that calls on Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and to comply with its IAEA obligations. Resolution 1737 directs all states to prevent the supply or sale to Iran of any materials that could assist its nuclear or ballistic-missile programs. It also imposes an asset freeze on key companies and individuals named by the UN as contributors to Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Iran rejects the move as an "invalid" and "extralegal act" outside the bounds of the UN's charter.
6 December 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov says that imposing overly tough sanctions on Iran could draw out the nuclear dispute.
5 December 2006 -- Ahead of a major-powers meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue, Iranian President Ahmadinejad warns the international community that "if you continue making efforts to halt the progress of Iran's nuclear program [or] if you take any step against Iran's rights -- either in propaganda or international bodies -- the Iranian nation will consider this a hostile act."
24 November 2006 -- IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei says Iran has pledged to give international inspectors new access to records and equipment from two nuclear sites, as well as environmental samples, from Lavizan and Natanz.
23 November 2006 -- UN diplomats are quoted as saying the IAEA's board of governors shelved Iran's bid for technical aid for a heavy-water reactor project at Arak over fears it could yield weapons-grade plutonium.
20 November 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad reportedly says Tehran wants 60,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium to meet its nuclear-fuel needs within a year. He also is quoted as saying that Israel is currently incapable of launching an effective military attack against Iran's nuclear sites.
17 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says the IAEA should lead efforts to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, rather than UN Security Council. He suggests that "it was agreed from the beginning that we would seek through the Security Council the swift resumption of negotiations with Iran, and not the punishment of Iran."
15 November 2006 -- U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton says no progress was made in talks on the Iranian nuclear issue involving himself and envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany.
14 November 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad predicts that Iran will celebrate its "full nuclearization" by the end of the year that concludes in March, and suggests his country's right to pursue nuclear technology will soon be acknowledged internationally. Reports also emerge suggesting the IAEA will soon report that Iran continues to enrich uranium, spurn cooperation over its nuclear program, and that UN inspectors are pursuing their discovery of unexplained traces of plutonium and highly enriched uranium at a waste facility in Iran with officials in Tehran.
13 November 2006 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says after talks with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that "there has to be a consequence" if Iran proceeds with its uranium-enrichment program in defiance of international pressure.
12 November 2006 -- An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says Tehran is pressing ahead with plans to expand its program to enrich uranium and remains determined to install 3,000 centrifuges by March 2007.
11 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russia wants to restart nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.
10-11 November 2006 -- Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani emerges from talks in Moscow divulging no details but saying Iran is ready for dialogue to resolve any disputes over its nuclear program; he reportedly meets with President Vladimir Putin on the second day of his visit.
8 November 2006 -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany are reportedly still deadlocked after a meeting at the UN to discuss a European draft resolution to curtail Iran's nuclear program and amendments offered by Moscow and Washington. Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin says there is still a "considerable gap" separating the parties.
5 November 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini says Tehran is ready to consider negotiating with the United States on regional issues, including Iraq, if Washington requests it.
4 November 2006 -- Russia stresses that any punitive measures the UN Security Council agrees to impose on Iran "should have a precise limitation on the period for their being in effect."
3 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says after a meeting in Brussels that a European draft UN resolution on Iran sanctions "goes far beyond [our] agreements."
1 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says a draft UN resolution authored by France, Germany, and Britain to impose sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear ambitions would isolate Iran and Moscow "cannot support measures that are aimed at isolating Iran from the outside world."
31 October 2006 -- Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov says his country has no information "that would suggest that Iran is carrying out a nonpeaceful [nuclear] program," adding that "the possibilities for continuing political discussion...have not been exhausted."
30 October 2006 -- Iran's president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, says Tehran would make an "appropriate and firm" response to UN sanctions, adding that "the Iranian nation is standing strong and it will not retreat even one bit from its nuclear rights."
28 October 2006 -- Mohammad Ghannad, the deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, says that Tehran has stepped up its uranium-enrichment work.
Lavrov criticizes a draft UN resolution providing for a form of sanctions against Iran.
26 October 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister24 October 2006 -- Anonymous diplomatic sources at the UN say major world powers remain split over the details of a draft Security Council resolution to respond to Iran's continuing nuclear work.
21 October 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says Moscow opposes any attempt to use the Security Council to punish Iran over its nuclear program.
18 October 2006 -- EU foreign ministers express backing for gradual sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.
16 October 2006 -- In his country's first reaction to sanctions targeting North Korea for its apparent nuclear-weapons test on October 9, President Ahmadinejad dismisses the UN Security Council as a tool for "hegemony" and "intimidation."
4 October 2006 -- EU foreign policy chief Solana says four months of intensive talks have brought no agreement on suspension of Iran's sensitive nuclear activities, and he adds that the dialogue cannot continue indefinitely.
3 October 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggests the international community will have no choice but to impose sanctions on Iran if it refuses to suspend its uranium-enrichment efforts.
26 September 2006 -- Russia and Iran agree on a September 2007 launch of Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr, with electricity production to begin two months later.
25 September 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says nuclear talks with European negotiators are "on track" and a diplomatic solution is possible.
22 September 2006 -- Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi warns that Iran's armed forces will strike back "like lightning" against any attack on the country and destroy "the enemy."
21 September 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says nuclear talks with the EU are "on the right path." He adds that he is "at a loss" as to what more Tehran can do to provide guarantees that it is no trying to develop nuclear weapons.
20 September 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says six major world powers have agreed to back further EU talks with Iran, but he hints that Washington will push for sanctions if Tehran continues sensitive nuclear work. Burns says an unspecified deadline has been set for the current EU-Iranian talks to achieve results.
19 September 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today urged other permanent members of the UN Security Council not to allow their "credibility to decline" by failing to act against Iran.
17 September 2006 -- German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposes the creation of shared, U.N.-monitored uranium-enrichment facilities as an alternative to individual countries acquiring their own enrichment technology.
14 September 2006 -- To "set the record straight," the IAEA protests in a letter to U.S. officials that a recent U.S. report describing Iran's nuclear program as a strategic threat contains "erroneous, misleading, and unsubstantiated information." The IAEA dismisses as untrue a claim that Iran is enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels; Iran is enriching to 3.6 percent, not the 90 percent needed for nuclear weapons.
13 September 2006 -- A spokeswoman for EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana says a second round of EU-Iranian nuclear talks slated for the following day have been postponed. The same day, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested that Tehran's position on the nuclear issue might have softened.
11 September 2006 -- Muhammad el-Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says he is "encouraged that there is ongoing dialogue" over Iran's nuclear activities.
9-10 September 2006 -- Two days of "productive" EU-Iranian talks end inconclusively, with a vow to meet again the following week.
September 8, 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says the UN Security Council should begin drafting a resolution in the next week on sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. He notes that there is still no consensus on what type of sanctions might be imposed.
5 September 2006 -- The Iranian parliament's Commission for National Security and Foreign Policy approves the outlines of a bill to suspend entry to Iran of UN inspectors in the event of punitive measures by the UN Security Council.
Tehran wants to find a negotiated solution to its nuclear standoff with the world but also rejects any suspension of its uranium-enrichment program prior to talks.
3 September 2006 -- Visiting UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan says President Ahmadinejad reaffirms that1 September 2006 -- Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami arrives in the United States ahead of a UN conference and several public appearances that make him the most senior Iranian official to visit the United States outside the strict framework of a UN event in more than two decades.
31 August 2006 -- The IAEA reports to the Security Council that Iran has continued to enrich uranium despite UN calls for it to stop its nuclear activities by August 31, adding that its own investigations have been frustrated by a lack of cooperation from Iran.
29 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says he thinks the UN Security Council will not punish Iran, but says his country "will not bow to threats and ultimatums." He says Tehran's response to the recent international deadline presents a "very exceptional opportunity" to resolve the nuclear dispute. Ahmadinejad also proposes a live, televised debate with U.S. President George W. Bush.
27 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad launches a new phase in Iran's nuclear development with the formal opening of a heavy-water-production plant at Arak. Critics fear the plant will eventually be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium, and the IAEA will later shelve an Iranian request for international technical assistance with the plant. Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran is determined to produce its own nuclear fuel.
22 August 2006 -- Iran responds to a self-imposed deadline by saying an international proposal to curb its disputed nuclear program has "fundamental and serious ambiguities" but adds that Tehran is ready for "serious talks." Iranian officials essentially ignore the demand by the UN Security Council's permanent members plus Germany that Iran halt uranium enrichment.16 August 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran is willing to discuss its uranium-enrichment program, although he says international calls for its suspension are "illogical."
4 August 2006 -- The United States slaps sanctions on seven international arms dealers, including two major Russian companies, for allegedly providing banned technology to Iran.
31 July 2006 --The UN Security Council adopts Resolution 1696, calling for Iran to suspend uranium-enrichment activites by August 31 or face the possibility of economic sanctions.
18 July 2006 -- The unfolding crisis between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon delays UN consideration of Iran's nuclear program.
16 July 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says the international incentives package is "an acceptable basis" for further negotiations.
12 July 2006 -- A meeting of foreign ministers of the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany in Paris decides to refer Iran's nuclear program back to the Security Council for possible sanctions.
11 July 2006 -- The EU announces that it is disappointed with progress in Brussels talks with Iran over the international incentives package.
30 June 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not respond to the international incentives package before August, despite U.S. and EU pressure for Tehran to answer by July 5.
16 June 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad calls a package of international incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to abandon sensitive nuclear activities "a step forward" and says he has "asked my colleagues to carefully consider it."
15 June 2006-- Russian President Putin says after a meeting with President Ahmadinejad on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that the talks left him with a "very positive impression." Putin says Ahmadinejad says Iran is "positively" assessing the package of nuclear incentives. Putin also says any country has the right to use nuclear technology so long as it "does not arouse concerns of the international community on the [nuclear] nonproliferation issue."
12 June 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council chief and top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says of the incentives offer that "this proposal contains some positive points, such as the nuclear reactor for Iran." Larijani's comments come as the IAEA board is launching a meeting at which it will discuss the Iranian nuclear standoff.
9 June 2006 -- Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, who holds the European Union's rotating presidency, says Iran has until the July summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries to respond to an offer of incentives aimed at resolving the crisis over its nuclear program.
8 June 2006 -- A new report by the UN nuclear agency says Iran is continuing to enrich uranium and indicates that nuclear inspectors have made little progress on shedding light on worrying aspects of Tehran's nuclear activities in the past.
6 June 2006 -- EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana meets in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials and presents them with fresh proposals aimed at persuading Iran to abandon its uranium-enrichment program. The proposals have been agreed on by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States -- plus Germany.
new package of trade and technical incentives designed to halt Tehran's suspected military nuclear program. EU High Representative for the Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana says it is "fundamental" that Iran cease its enrichment activities.
15 May 2006 -- The EU says it is ready to offer Iran sophisticated civilian nuclear technology as part of an "exceptional"17 May 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says in a televised speech that Tehran will reject a European offer of incentives to give up uranium enrichment, saying acceptance of the proposal would be tantamount to swapping nuts and chocolate for gold.
28 April 2006 -- The IAEA sends its report to the UN Security Council faulting Iran for failing to meet demands to suspend uranium enrichment and improve cooperation with nuclear inspectors. The report marks the end of the Security Council's 30-day deadline for demonstrating that its nuclear activities are only for civilian purposes. U.S. President Bush expresses a desire to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
27 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says on the sidelines of a NATO meeting that the UN Security Council "has to act" in order to remain credible if Iran ignores the deadline for halting uranium enrichment. Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran will not comply.
25 April 2006 -- Top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran will cut ties with the IAEA if the UN Security Council imposes sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.
24 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear activities are transparent and he does not think pursuing uranium enrichment will lead to international sanctions.
23 April 2006 -- Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says Iran's uranium-enrichment and nuclear-research activities are "irreversible."
19 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Rice says Washington is prepared to use political, economic, and other measures to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, adding that it has "diplomatic tools" at its disposal.
12 April 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to discuss the country's nuclear program with senior Iranian officials but few details emerge. El-Baradei says he cannot confirm Iranian claims that its scientists have enriched uranium to fuel power stations.
11 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad announces, using Islamic rhetoric in a special ceremony seemingly designed to attract popular support, that Iran has completed the nuclear-fuel cycle. The achievement places Iran among the "nuclear countries of the world."
2 April 2006 -- Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, claims that the more the Security Council is involved, the worse the situation will become.
30 March 2006 -- The five permanent UN Security Council members -- the United States, Britain, France, China, and Russia -- and Germany warn Iran that it must heed the UN statement insisting that it stop its nuclear work or face isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki dismisses the warning; other officials will also reject the Security Council warning. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges Iran to be more forthcoming but also says he thinks sanctions at this time would be unwise.
29 March 2006 -- UN Security Council unanimously adopts statement calling on Tehran to halt its nuclear work.
28 March 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov demands that Tehran say "unambiguously" whether it will accept or reject Russia's offer to enrich uranium to supply an Iranian nuclear program. Reports emerge that the Iranian Embassy in Moscow has proposed the establishment -- with the involvement of other countries -- of a nuclear-fuel production center in Iran.
25 March 2006 -- Syrian First Vice President Faruq al-Shara and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki decry Israel's nuclear program as a threat to regional peace.
21 March 2006 -- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says "there is no problem with" direct talks rumored to have been planned between Iran and the United States over the situation in Iraq, as long as those discussions lead Washington to understand Tehran's position. Iranian sources have been quoted as insisting the talks must be limited to the topic of Iraq.
20 March 2006 -- U.S. President Bush says he hopes "to solve this [nuclear] issue diplomatically" with a "united message" from the five permanent Security Council members but adds that Iranian officials' threats against "our strong ally, Israel," are "a threat to world peace." Bush adds that "we will use military might to protect our ally, Israel."
16 March 2006 -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair insists the international community "cannot walk away" from the Iranian nuclear issue and says there was no point turning to the UN "unless something is going to follow as a result of that."
informal discussions on Iran's nuclear program now include all 15 members of the Security Council and adds that the draft of a possible resolution has been distributed. The same day, U.S. President Bush announces to Congress that he has extended bilateral economic sanctions against Iran by another year. Bush says Iranian government policies and actions pose a continuing threat to the U.S. economy, foreign-policy goals, and national security.
14 March 2006 -- U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton says12 March 2006 -- Tehran says a Russian proposal to move Iran's enrichment program to Russia is "off" the agenda and that Iran will not consider any proposal that does not guarantee the country's "right to nuclear research."
8 March 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei says at the end of a three-day meeting that the agency will forward his report -- which accuses Iran of withholding information, possessing plans linked to nuclear weapons and refusing to freeze uranium enrichment -- to the UN Security Council. El-Baradei urges Iran to "be transparent" and "take confidence-building measures." Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad vows in a televised speech that "Iran will not give in to any political pressure, [will] make no compromise, and will go to the end of the line."
7 March 2006 -- Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says Tehran has "crossed the international red line" with its activities to enrich uranium, adding that unless Iran suspends all nuclear activities, the Security Council must get involved.
3 March 2006 -- European talks with Iranian officialsfailto provide a nuclear compromise ahead of the IAEA's March 6-8 meeting.
2 March 2006 -- Reports say Russian-Iranian talks in Moscow fail to produce a "decisive breakthrough" on the basis of a Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Iran. Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani pledges that his country will not stop its enrichment activities.
26 February 2006 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam-Reza Aqazadeh, says Iran and Russia have reached basic agreement on a Russian proposal to host Iran's uranium-enrichment program.
14 February 2006 -- Ten days after the IAEA voted to report it to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities, Iran confirms that it has resumed work on uranium enrichment.
5 February 2006 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki announces the end of Iran's voluntary cooperation with the IAEA.
4 February 2006 -- IAEA governing board votes overwhelmingly to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities.
30 January 2006 -- Foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), plus Germany, concur that Iran should be reported to the council for its nuclear activities, but action should be delayed until after the March meeting of the IAEA governing board. Tehran counters with a threat to end all cooperation with the IAEA and adherence to international accords, as called for by an earlier parliamentary decision.
24 January 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani visits Moscow to discuss a December proposal that nuclear fuel enriched in Russia will be shipped to Iran for use, then returned to Russia for storage. Larijani indicated a lack of enthusiasm on 27 January, telling reporters at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport that Moscow's idea does not conform fully with Tehran's needs. He said the proposal should be revised in future discussions. The next round of Iran-Russia talks is scheduled for 16 February.
11 January 2006 -- Leaders from the United States, Russia, and EU countries roundly condemn Iran for its resumption of nuclear-fuel activities. The leaders renew calls for referring the dispute to the UN Security Council.
resumes nuclear research, triggering Western condemnation. Mohammad Saidi, a deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, says that Iran agreed with the IAEA on 9 January for IAEA inspectors in Iran to "reopen those places on which we agreed." Resumed activities, he said, are merely in "research, and nothing more. We distinguish between fuel-related research and the production of fuel." On the same day, IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei informs the IAEA governing board that Iran intends to begin "small-scale" uranium enrichment at its Natanz facility.
10 January 2006 -- Iran3 January 2006 -- Iranian Atomic Energy Organization deputy head Mohammad Saidi told state television that Tehran will resume its nuclear-fuel research. The Iranian government confirmed the report on 9 January.
25 December 2005 -- Tehran formally rejects an offer from Moscow to enrich uranium for its nuclear program in Russia. Iranian officials insist upon Iran's right to enrich uranium on its own soil.
24 November 2005 -- A meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors postpones any action on Iran's nuclear program. The move is aimed at reopening negotiations on a Russian proposal for a compromise that would allow Iran to enrich uranium, but only in Russia and under strict controls.
15 October 2005 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The two officials disagree over Iran's nuclear program, with Lavrov maintaining the Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
12 October 2005 -- The EU issues a statement calling on Iran to continue negotiations with the EU-3 and to improve its human-rights record.
7 October 2005 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency are jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in part for their work in mediating the conflict over Iran's nuclear program.
28 September 2005 -- Iran's parliament votes to expedite a bill that would end voluntary IAEA inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities.
25 September 2005 -- Tehran rejects the IAEA report and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says his country remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
24 September 2005 -- The IAEA governing board adopts a resolution that says the nuclear watchdog, "after two and a half years of intensive inspections," remains unclear on "some important outstanding issues." "Iran's full transparency is indispensable and overdue," it continues, adding that the agency questions Iran's motives for not declaring certain factors and "pursuing a policy of containment." The resolution does not refer Iran to the UN Security Council, but it does hint at this possibility by noting that some of the outstanding questions are "within the competence of the Security Council. The resolution was approved by a vote of 22 in favor, 1 against (Venezuela), and 12 abstentions. (See also, "Iranian Government Reacts To IAEA Nuclear Resolution.")
17 September 2005 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad announces the Iranian position on the nuclear issue at the UN General Assembly. "Peaceful use of nuclear energy without possession of nuclear fuel cycle is an empty proposition," he said. He expressed concern about the creation of a nuclear "apartheid," and he calls for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East. "In accordance with our religious principles, pursuit of nuclear weapons is prohibited," Ahmadinejad said. As a confidence-building measure, Ahmadinejad said, Iran is willing to partner with public and private groups in its uranium-enrichment program. He added that Iran will continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, he dismissed promises that other countries will be the source of fuel for the Iranian nuclear program.
2 September 2005 -- Members of the IAEA Board of Governors receive a report on Iran's nuclear activities. It notes that Tehran has been less than forthcoming about some of its activities and has been reluctant to provide access to some sites. "In view of the fact that the agency is not in a position to clarify some important outstanding issues after two and a half years of intensive inspection and investigation, Iran's full transparency is indispensable and overdue," the report states. "Given Iran's past concealment efforts over many years...transparency measures should extend beyond the formal requirements...and should include access to individuals, documentation on procurement, and dual-use equipment."
August 2005 -- Iran rejects the EU proposal, which includes commercial and political cooperation in exchange for Iran's forsaking efforts to develop nuclear fuel. (See also, "IAEA Draft Resolution Expresses 'Serious Concern' Over Iran's Nuclear Activities.") The European proposal included an offer to help build a light-water reactor and then provide fuel for it. (Fuel for a light-water reactor is cannot be used for weapons.)
July 2005 -- President Khatami says on 19 July that Iran will not forsake the right to produce nuclear fuel and the enrichment suspension will not be permanent. He says on 27 July that activities at the Isfahan UCF could resume in days, depending on the concessions proposed at an Iran-EU meeting. "The system has already made its decision to resume Isfahan's activities," he said.
May 2005 -- Iranian officials repeat that activities at Isfahan UCF will resume "soon," but then Tehran agrees to wait for two months after Iranian and EU officials meet in Geneva.
April 2005 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani said on 30 April -- after the previous day's negotiations in London with British, French, and German representatives failed to yield substantive results -- Tehran is considering resumption of activities at the Isfahan uranium conversion facility (UCF).
February 2005 -- Iran and Russia sign an agreement on the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia for reprocessing and storage. This measure is intended to eliminate the possibility that the materials will be used for making nuclear weapons. Fuel delivery will take place six months before the facility's completion, which should occur at the end of 2006.
January 2005 -- IAEA inspectors visit the Parchin military site, which is southwest of Tehran, to investigate allegations that the military tested conventional explosives that can be used to detonate nuclear weapons there.
December 2004 -- Talks between Iran and the EU-3 over political and economic concessions, in exchange for Iran making its enrichment suspension permanent, are scheduled to begin on 13 December (see "How Close Is Iran To The Bomb?").
November 2004 -- Iran holds talks in Paris with the EU-3. On 14 November, Iran signs an agreement to suspend uranium enrichment. The Europeans offer a series of political and economic concessions in exchange. But at an IAEA board of governors meeting from 25-29 November -- which was set to pass a resolution endorsing the deal and agreeing to monitor it -- Iran insists on an exemption for 20 centrifuges for research purposes. Iran eventually backs down, but demands -- and wins -- key changes softening the resolution in exchange. Most importantly, the resolution describes the enrichment freeze as a voluntary, rather than the legally binding commitment as both the United States and the EU sought. (See also, "The Iranian Nuclear Imbroglio.")
October 2004 -- The EU-3 again calls for Iran to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities to avoid its case being brought before the Security Council. The Europeans offer economic and political incentives in exchange. The Iranian parliament passes a bill approving the resumption of enrichment activities.
September 2004 -- An IAEA report calls Iran's claims about its nuclear program "plausible," but voices concern over Iran's decision to resume large-scale production of the feed material for enriching uranium. Claiming enrichment is a "sovereign right," Iran refuses to accept an unlimited suspension and says it will not stop manufacturing centrifuges. The IAEA gives Iran a 25 November deadline to reveal all its nuclear activities. Tehran later announces that it has resumed large-scale conversion of uranium yellowcake ore, a step toward uranium enrichment.
July 2004 -- Iran says it has resumed production of parts for centrifuges that are used for enriching uranium, but insists that it has not resumed its enrichment activities. The announcement appears to put the enrichment-freeze deal worked out between Iran, the EU-3, and the IAEA in jeopardy.
June 2004 -- IAEA says that inspectors found new traces of enriched uranium that exceeded the levels necessary for civilian energy production.
May 2004 -- Iran submits to the IAEA a 1,000-page report on its nuclear activities.
February 2004 -- Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear program, says that he had provided atomic secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea since the late 1980s. IAEA inspectors notice similarities in designs and components for the advanced P-2 centrifuge, adding to suspicions that Khan supplied both North Korea and Iran with same nuclear know-how.
November 2003 -- An IAEA report states that at the moment there is no conclusive proof that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The United States, seeking to have the matter sent to the UN Security Council, dismisses the conclusion. The IAEA's 35-member board of governors passes a resolution sternly rebuking Iran for covering up 18 years of atomic experiments, but does not send the matter to the Security Council.
October 2003 -- The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Great Britain travel to Tehran and persuade Iran to agree to stop enriching uranium and to sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT. The EU-3 also dangle economic concessions if Tehran cooperates fully with the IAEA. Iran turns over a declaration to the IAEA admitting to 18 years of covert atomic experiments, including the unreported uranium enrichment, although it continues to deny this was for a weapons program.
September 2003 -- The United States says Iran is in noncompliance with the NPT and calls for a referral to the UN Security Council, which could impose sanctions. But Washington agrees to support a proposal from Great Britain, France, and Germany (who were negotiating on behalf of the European Union and became known as the "EU-3") to give the Tehran until the end of October to fully disclose nuclear activities and allow for a stricter inspection regime.
July 2003 -- IAEA begins a fresh round of inspections in Iran.
June 2003 -- In a report, el-Baradei says inspections have demonstrated that "Iran failed to report certain nuclear materials and activities" and urges Tehran to cooperate with the agency. The report does not declare Iran in breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The IAEA requests that Iran sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT and allow unannounced inspections of its nuclear sites.
February 2003 -- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to verify Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is peaceful. IAEA inspectors later find traces of highly enriched uranium at Natanz and other sites.
August 2002 -- An Iranian exile opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, accuses Tehran of hiding a uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy-water plant at Arak.
(compiled by RFE/RL)
Iran's Nuclear Program
THE COMPLETE PICTURE: RFE/RL's complete coverage of controversy surrounding Iran's nuclear program.
CHRONOLOGY
An annotated timeline of Iran's nuclear program.More News
U.S. Condemns Tehran Court's 10-Year Sentence For Iranian-American Journalist
The U.S. State Department condemned the 10-year sentence handed down by Iranian authorities against Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"We strongly condemn this sentencing and call for his immediate release and the release of all political prisoners in Iran," a spokesperson told Radio Farda on December 17.
"The Iranian government has repeatedly suppressed press freedom through threats, intimidation, detentions, forced confessions, and the use of violence against journalists in Iran," the spokesperson added.
According to court documents sent to the journalist's lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Tehran's Revolutionary Court on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations following the completion of his sentence.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work.
He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh's detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards.
Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a statement. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Iran Shuts Down Government Offices, Schools Amid Freezing Temperatures, Gas Shortages
Iran closed government offices and shifted school classes online on December 16 due to freezing temperatures and a severe gas shortage. Northern provinces have experienced temperatures plunging to -20°C (-4°F) in recent days, accompanied by widespread gas supply disruptions. President Masud Pezeshkian called on citizens last week to lower their thermostats by 2 degrees Celsius to conserve energy. Other government officials have made similar pleas online. Despite sitting on the world’s second-largest proven gas reserves, Iran’s aging infrastructure has struggled to meet increasing demand during winter. To read the full story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Iran Detains Singer Who Performed Without Head Scarf
Iranian police released singer Parastoo Ahmadi in the early hours of December 15 following a brief detention after she performed without the mandatory head scarf, her lawyer has confirmed.
Ahmadi caused a stir on social media earlier this week after recording a performance with her hair uncovered and wearing a dress. The performance, recorded with a crew of male musicians, was uploaded to YouTube.
The police on December 14 claimed she was released after a "briefing session" but a source close to the family told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that she remained in custody. Her lawyer Milad Panahipur also denied the police claim, writing on X that the authorities were "lying" about her release.
The following day, Panahipur confirmed Ahmadi, who had been detained in her home province of Mazandaran, was released at 3 in the morning.
Two of her bandmates, Soheil Faqih-Nasri and Ehsan Beyraqdar, were also detained briefly.
Ahmadi’s Instagram account is no longer accessible, but her YouTube account remains active.
The video of her performance, dubbed "an imaginary concert" because female performers cannot sing solo in front of an audience, has received around 1.6 million views on YouTube since it was uploaded on December 11.
On December 12, the authorities said legal proceedings had been launched against Ahmadi and her bandmates for the "illegal concert."
Ahmadi, who gained prominence during the 2022 nationwide protests after singing a song in support of demonstrators, has been widely praised for her performance.
On social media, many have hailed her for fighting "gender apartheid" and showing "bravery, resilience, and love."
A rising number of women have been flouting the mandatory hijab in public since the 2022 protests, which gave rise to the Women, Life, Freedom movement.
The authorities have tried to crack down and recently passed a law enhancing the enforcement of the hijab by introducing hefty fines, restricting access to basic services, and lengthy prison sentences.
The new hijab and chastity law, which has been widely criticized by even conservative figures, is scheduled to go into effect this month, but at least two lawmakers have said its implementation has been postponed by the Supreme National Security Council.
Iranian-American Journalist Reza Valizadeh Sentenced To 10 Years In Prison In Iran
An Iranian court has sentenced Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, to 10 years in prison on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
According to court documents sent to the journalist’s lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Judge Iman Afshari of Tehran’s Revolutionary Court, Branch 26.
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years following the completion of his sentence from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work. He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The U.S. State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh’s detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards. Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a staetment. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Valizadeh remains in Tehran’s Evin prison under severe restrictions, with limited access to legal representation and family.
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Husband Of Iranian Rights Lawyer Arrested In Tehran
The husband of prominent Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh has been detained by security forces, according to their daughter.
Mehraveh Khandan said on Instagram that her father, Reza Khandan, was arrested on December 13 at her home in Tehran. The circumstances of Khandan's arrest and the charges against him were not known.
Mohammad Moghimi, a lawyer, said on X that the reason for the arrest was likely related to a six-year prison sentence in a case in which he represented Reza Khandan and activist Farhad Meysami.
The sentence against Reza Khandan was handed down in February 2019 by Tehran's Revolutionary Court. Meysami also faced a similar sentence in the case.
Reza Khandan had been charged with "assembly and collusion against national security," "propaganda against the state," and "spreading and promoting unveiling in society."
The sentence against Reza Khandan also banned him from membership in political parties and groups, leaving the country, and using the Internet and other media and press activities.
Sotoudeh, a vocal advocate for numerous activists, has been arrested several times since 2010. Her detention has included periods of solitary confinement, highlighting the challenges faced by human rights defenders in Iran.
Sotoudeh was arrested last year during the funeral of 17-year-old Armita Garavand, who died of injuries suffered in an alleged confrontation with Iran's morality police in the Tehran subway over a violation of Iran’s compulsory head scarf law.
Reza Khandan said at the time of his wife's arrest in October 2023 that she started a hunger and medication strike after she was severely beaten when she was taken into custody. Sotoudeh was released about two weeks later.
- By RFE/RL,
- Kian Sharifi,
- Kaisa Alliksaar and
- Will Tizard
Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?
Syria's most notorious extremist group has lost power over the last decade but has still managed to hit international targets. Some worry IS could make a comeback in the power vacuum following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Iranian Leader Blames Assad's Downfall On U.S., Israel, And Turkey
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his first public comments since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the rebel uprising that toppled the regime over the weekend.
Khamenei on December 11 also implicitly blamed Turkey for the lightning push of Syrian rebels who reached Damascus from their strongholds in the northwest with little resistance.
"It should not be doubted that what happened in Syria was the product of a joint American and Zionist plot," he said.
"Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, played, and is playing a clear role…but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command center are in America and the Zionist regime," Khamenei added.
The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- ousted Assad on December 8, less than two weeks after launching their offensive.
Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional proxies and allies.
Iran spent billions of dollars and sent military advisers to Syria to ensure Assad remained in power when civil war broke out in 2011.
Russia -- where the ousted Syrian leader has been granted political asylum -- also backed Assad, while Turkey has supported rebel groups who aimed to topple the regime.
A Khamenei adviser once described Syria as the "golden ring" in the chain connecting Iran to its Lebanese partner, Hezbollah. With the ring broken and Hezbollah's capabilities degraded after a devastating war with Israel, experts say the axis has become severely weak.
Khamenei said only "ignorant and uninformed analysts" would assess that the axis has become weak and vowed that its reach "will expand across the region more than before."
Reza Alijani, an Iranian political analyst based in France, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Khamenei's comments were more "trash talk" than anything else.
"The axis may not have been defeated, but it has suffered a serious blow and the Islamic republics arms in the region have been deal major hits," he said.
Alijani argued that factions within the Islamic republic's core support base may be starting to question Khamenei's policies and vision after the recent setbacks, which he said is a cause for concern among the clerical establishment's top brass.
With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
China In Eurasia Briefing: What The Fall Of Assad Means For Beijing
Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and I'm back after a reporting trip in Taiwan. I'm off again for the holidays but will be back here with another newsletter at the end of the year.
Here's what I'm following right now.
Beijing Watches Assad Fall
The full effects from the swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is still playing out on the ground, but his sudden fall is set to shake up the Middle East and beyond.
Here's what it means for China.
Finding Perspective: China has been aligned with Assad since Syria's civil war began in 2011 but largely through its close ties to Russia and Iran, which backed the Syrian leader.
At the United Nations, Beijing has often voted with Moscow, blocking condemnations of Assad as well as cross-border aid. Beijing supported the Assad regime with eight vetoes at the UN, which is half the total vetoes China has ever used.
Beijing significantly reduced its presence in Syria amid the conflict, though it kept building close ties with Assad, eventually culminating in his state visit to China in 2023.
Chinese investment in Syria was scarce, and beyond a strategic partnership agreement and a pledge to join the Belt and Road Initiative there has been essentially no Chinese investment in Syria and no major contracts with Chinese firms in the country since 2010.
So why did Beijing throw its weight behind Assad?
Revisiting The Arab Spring: For Beijing, the biggest issue was the symbolism and appearance of stability that Assad represented, especially given he was first threatened by a popular uprising that then set the Syrian civil war in motion.
The spread of revolutions in the Arab world in 2011 was alarming for the Chinese Communist Party.
Inside China at the time, popular grumbling with corruption at various levels of government was common, and the party was concerned the protests across the Middle East could inspire its own population, especially given simmering tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang at the time.
Added to that was the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. The war led to thousands of Uyghurs, the predominantly Muslim group from western China, traveling to Syria to fight against the Syrian government.
Many of those fighters said they were there to learn how to use weapons and then return to China, and fears over the return of battle-hardened fighters to Xinjiang was one of the pretexts Xi expressed to top party brass to launch the crackdown and camp system in western China that targeted the Uyghur population, according to a set of leaked internal government documents obtained by the New York Times.
Why It Matters: From this logic, Beijing's support for Assad makes sense, but it's a big bet that hasn't paid off.
The fall of Assad is also a reflection of the weakened regional power of two of its main partners: Iran and Russia.
Their inability to prop up Assad indicates they've been consumed by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, which may be a concern for Beijing looking ahead.
The rapid collapse of the Syrian government is also an unwelcome message at home for Beijing, which was reflected in the way Chinese media covered the events for Chinese viewers.
As images circulated around the world of jubilant crowds and the toppling of statues, Chinese state media's coverage on CCTV mostly centered around a fixed live shot of Damascus without a crowd in sight.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. China Flexes Its Muscles Around Taiwan
Beijing said it is taking "necessary measures" to defend the country's sovereignty and will not tolerate "separatist" activities, as Taiwan reported another rise in Chinese warplanes and ships near the island.
The Details: Taiwan's Defense Ministry said China was deploying its largest navy fleet in regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games.
China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, had been expected to launch drills to express its anger at President Lai Ching-te's tour of the Pacific that ended last week, which included stopovers in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam.
Without any announcement from China on military drills, Taiwan officials are calling the ongoing activity a training exercise and warned it could be used to further violate Taiwan's territorial boundaries.
China, which views Lai as a separatist, held major military exercises around Taiwan following his inauguration in May and his National Day speech in October. It also held a major drill after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022.
2. The California Connection
A Chinese company that owns a California electronics distributor has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use technology to Russia since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the Russian military, my colleagues Mike Eckel and Mark Krutov report.
What You Need To Know: The findings further highlight the difficulty Western countries have had in trying to choke off the Russian military's access to Western technology for use in its weapons and operations as its war on Ukraine continues.
At least one component manufactured by the company, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited, was found in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a public database maintained by the Ukrainian military.
Yangjie Technology, located in the city of Yangzhou northwest of Shanghai, has sent more than 200 shipments of specific goods to Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to customs records obtained by C4ADS, a Washington-based, nonprofit data-analysis and global-research organization.
The listed contents of those shipments -- totaling at least 238 -- included electronic components categorized as "high-priority" by the United States due to their potential use in Russian weapons systems, according to the data obtained by C4ADS and shared with RFE/RL, which independently corroborated more than 150 such shipments.
3. China And Serbia Eye New Cooperation On Extraditions
Serbia has extradited five Chinese citizens in the past five years, according to data obtained by my colleague Mila Manojlovic from RFE/RL's Balkan Service.
What It Means: The data shows extraditions are already taking place. That cooperation is also set to grow as Serbia's Justice Ministry prepares to submit to parliament a draft extradition law with China that, if passed, would expand the scope of cooperation between Beijing and Belgrade.
That extradition deal, which would regulate the bilateral extradition of citizens charged with crimes, is seen by experts as a response to the influx of tourists and Chinese nationals to Serbia that have corresponded with high-profile Chinese investments and loans for projects through the BRI.
According to data from Serbia's National Employment Service, more than 45,000 work permits have been issued to Chinese citizens since 2016, the year the ruling Serbian Progressive Party started intensifying relations with Beijing and expanding BRI projects.
Serbia's Interior Ministry told RFE/RL there are currently 3,433 Chinese citizens registered in the country.
Across The Supercontinent
Looking at 2025: Here's my look at what's on Taiwan's agenda as we prepare to enter 2025, as part of a wider lookahead from across RFE/RL coverage region. My segment begins at 7:25.
Train Links: The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in Mazar-e Sharif on November 23 after crossing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Taliban said 55 containers arrived in Afghanistan after a 22-day journey, marking the inauguration of the first direct train link between China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
The New Normal: From attacks in Pakistan to new episodes in Tajikistan, my colleagues Bashir Ahmad Gwakh and Frud Bezhan look at how new violence in South and Central Asia could affect Chinese investment projects across the region.
A Late Warning: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 2 warned her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Beijing's support for Russia would "impact" ties with Europe.
One Thing To Watch
According to a draft sanctions package obtaind by RFE/RL, the European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
The draft version of the sanctions package was first shared with EU countries on November 22 and would still need to be approved before the end of the year by all 27 member states in order to come into effect.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.
- By RFE/RL
Outside Powers Move To Protect Interests In Syria As Rebel-Backed Interim PM Named
Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad as outside powers -- including Russia, Turkey, the United States, and Israel -- maneuvered to protect their geopolitical interests in the war-torn Middle East nation.
In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend.
Little-known Bashir, born in Idlib Province in 1982 and an engineering graduate, had once worked for Syria's state gas entity and has served as head of the rebel's so-called Salvation Government for the past year.
HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government, although Western powers and rights groups remain cautious.
Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, on December 10 told NBC News that Moscow is providing sanctuary to Assad after transporting him there "in the most secure way possible." He didn't provide further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family.
Earlier on December 10, loud explosions were heard amid reports Israel has been systematically striking Syrian military installations following the ouster of Assad’s brutal regime.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the military had struck several Syrian sites and had hit its naval vessels in overnight strikes.
"The [military] has been operating in Syria in recent days to strike and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success," Katz said.
Katz said Israel’s military has been ordered to create a weapons-free zone in southern Syria "to prevent the establishment and organization of terrorism] in the country.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Israel had "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria," including “airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates."
The reports came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "transforming the face of the Middle East" and defeating its enemies "step by step" in what he called an "existential war that has been imposed upon us."
Netanyahu said Assad's regime had been a "central element of Iran's axis of evil," accusing it of facilitating a "weapons pipeline" between Iran and the Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Washington has also conducted some 75 air strikes on Islamic State (IS) militants, who still have a presence in Syria, in recent days to prevent the group from taking advantage of the turmoil that followed Assad's fall.
"You can expect that kind of activity will continue. We don't want to give [IS] an opportunity to exploit what is going on," White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said on December 10.
The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of its decade-long fight against IS.
"[IS] will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on December 9. "As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."
Washington said it is seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region, including Turkey, to initiate informal contacts.
"We have the ability to communicate with the opposition groups, and we'll continue to do that," Kirby said in his briefing.
The Syrian Observatory also said IS militants killed at least 54 government soldiers who were fleeing advancing rebels "during the collapse of the regime" in the Sukhna area of Homs Province. The report could not immediately be verified.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery by Planet Labs showed Russian naval ships have left their Syrian base at Tartus, with some dropping anchor offshore.
Imagery showed at least three vessels -- including two guided missile frigates -- some 13 kilometers off the coast.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim along with the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has ties to many of the rebel groups involved in the takeover, said Ankara will act against anyone seeking to compromise its Syrian territory.
"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again.... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he said.
Turkey has claimed U.S.-backed Syrian-Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria to be "terrorists" linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara, as well as by Washington.
Tehran, which was also a long-standing backer of Assad, on December 10 said some 4,000 Iranian citizens have left Syria over the past three days. Iranian proxies are thought to have multiple military sites inside Syria, some of which have been hit by Israeli air attacks, but the government has so far been relatively muted in its response to Assad's fall.
On December 9, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on the situation in Syria called by Russia, which together with Iran, has been a main backer of Assad's regime.
"The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming to the population in need," said Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, in a statement released after the meeting.
The HTS-led rebels announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, 42, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has become the public face of HTS, which itself was formerly known as the Al Nusra Front, among other names.
Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.
The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has often been used by far-right politicians in Europe to inflame passions and bolster their support among voters.
The EU has urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."
But EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."
The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.
Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.
The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.
With reporting by AP, AFP, and dpa
- By Kian Sharifi
Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'
Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors.
The network was the lynchpin of Tehran's efforts to deter Israel and the United States and exert its influence across the Middle East.
But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say.
For Iran, Syria provided a crucial land corridor to the Levant that was considered the logistical backbone of the axis. The corridor, also known as the Shi'ite Crescent, connected Tehran to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, a key ally and an integral part of the axis.
"There is no axis without access," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "The resistance is not done, but losing the ability to logistically support Hezbollah means the loss of Iran's strategic depth."
Broken Corridor
Underscoring Syria's importance, Iran spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power.
Tehran intervened militarily in Syria's civil war in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
After the loss of the land corridor connecting axis members from Iran to Lebanon, "we are likely to see a much-diminished resistance in the coming months and years," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
The axis, he said, will have "a considerably lower capacity to rebuild or conduct military operations in the future."
At its height, the axis was active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and was meant to give Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.
But the axis has suffered a series of debilitating setbacks in recent months.
Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival. The HTS seized power in Damascus on December 8.
Hezbollah has been severely weakened after a bruising, yearlong war with Israel, which killed the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has diminished the capabilities of U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, another axis member.
Events in Syria "will certainly place significantly more restraints on Iran’s ability to maintain its regional influence," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran's 'Very Bad' Options
Weakened regionally, Iran now has tough decisions to make, including reconsidering its deterrence strategy and possibly developing a nuclear bomb, experts say.
Zimmt says Iran has two "very bad options" -- to do nothing and recognize that its deterrence against Israel has been compromised, or weaponize its nuclear program and expose itself to the possibility of an Israeli attack.
Things look equally grim for Iran’s axis of resistance, according to Sabet, who says Tehran will be under pressure to pull back its regional activities.
Sabet says Iran will seek to exploit any potential chaos in the region, including in post-Assad Syria, to reassert its influence.
"If the civil war in Syria is not quickly settled and a new order created, it might become precisely the type of environment where the Islamic republic has historically thrived," Sabet said.
- By Riin Aljas and
- Carl Schreck
Celebrations, Looting, And Statue Surfing: Scenes From Syria After Assad's Fall
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime sparked nationwide celebrations, as scenes of jubilation and chaos unfolded across the country.
In the early hours of December 8, videos emerged on social media showing groups of people gathering on Umayyad Square in Damascus, a key landmark in the capital. Thousands more joined them throughout the day, with some participants climbing atop a tank.
Social media footage verified by RFE/RL showed people exiting the central bank building in Damascus carrying bags and boxes.
Looting was reported in the capital and in other cities across the country, according to multiple eyewitness accounts.
At the gates of the presidential palace in Damascus, video footage captured jubilant men cheering and firing weapons into the air.
People were seen entering the palace freely throughout the day after Assad fled the country. Russian state media reported later on December 8 that he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum.
Video footage from inside the palace showed crowds milling around, as well as people carrying out furniture and valuables, leaving trashed rooms behind them.
Verified video footage obtained by RFE/RL also showed the building of the Syrian Interior Ministry's immigration and passport department ablaze in Damascus.
Statues of Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, who created the authoritarian system his son inherited, were dismantled nationwide after a lightning-fast rebel offensive.
On Arwad Island, off the coast of Tartus and around 10 kilometers from a Russian naval base, jubilant crowds toppled a statue of the elder Assad, who died in 2000, and climbed onto the monument in celebration.
In Latakia, a coastal town that was a stronghold of the Assad family, another statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down and dragged through the streets behind a truck as revelers rode atop it.
Images also showed the aftermath of the storming of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which appeared to have been abandoned earlier on December 8. Iranian media reported that diplomats had already evacuated the premises.
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says Russia, Iran In 'Weakened State,' Calls On Putin To Make Ukraine Deal
President-elect Donald Trump said Russia and Iran are in a "weakened state" and called on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
Trump made the comments in a post on Truth Social on December 8 as Syrian rebels captured Damascus, ending the half-century rule of the Russia- and Iran-backed Assad family.
The incoming U.S. president said Russia and Iran couldn't come to the support of Syrian dictator Assad because they were in a "weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."
Russia has lost about 600,000 soldiers since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Trump said, adding that Ukraine has lost about 400,000 defending its territory.
"There should be an immediate cease-fire and negotiations should begin," Trump said. "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting!"
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to Trump's comment.
Paris Meeting
Trump said in the post that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy "would like to make a deal."
Trump held talks with Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on December 7 to discuss the war. Zelenskiy called the trilateral talks "good and productive" and said the leaders discussed the potential for "a just peace."
Trump and Zelenskiy were among world leaders who gathered in Paris on December 7 to mark the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
"We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible," Zelenskiy said in a December 7 post on Telegram.
"President Trump, as always, is determined. We are thankful for that," he added.
Macron said, "Let us continue joint efforts for peace, security."
Trump, who will take office on January 20, has criticized the tens of billions of dollars the United States has poured into Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.
He has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours of retaking the White House, a statement that has been interpreted as meaning that Ukraine would have to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.
Experts say it will be difficult to hammer out a peace deal quickly because there are so many aspects, including security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions relief for Russia.
In the meantime, the outgoing Biden administration has been accelerating weapons shipments to Ukraine ahead of the transfer of power to Trump to bolster its defenses.
Washington said on December 7 that it is preparing a $988 million package of arms and equipment to Ukraine, funds taken from the remaining $2.21 billion available in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The funds will be used to buy precision missiles for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and for drones, the Pentagon said.
European countries are also stepping up aid in case the Trump administration ends U.S. support for Kyiv.
Zelenskiy announced on December 7 that Ukraine had received a second shipment of sophisticated F-16 fighter jets from Denmark. Copenhagen announced last year it would deliver a total of 19 aircraft to Ukraine.
"The second batch of F-16s for Ukraine from Denmark is already in Ukraine. This is the leadership in protecting life that distinguishes Denmark," he wrote on Telegram.
Syrians Take To The Streets As Assad's Rule Collapses
Celebrating crowds flooded the streets of Syria's biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, early on December 8 after the opposition declared an end to the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. Men in Damascus snatched the head from a statue of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad. The total of their rule spanned from 1971 to 2024. In the central city of Homs, armed rebels celebrated in the mosque accommodating the grave of medieval Arab commander Khalid Ibn al-Walid. In Damascus, the Iranian Embassy was stormed and looted.
Syrian Rebels 'Liberating' Homs, Eye Damascus As Assad Regime Hangs In Balance
Syrian rebels led by Islamist militants have entered the central city of Homs as they close in on Damascus while the country’s main allies -- Russia and Iran -- scrambled to protect the regime of authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad and their own assets in the country.
Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, said late on December 7 that the insurgent fighters were "in the final moments of liberating" Homs, a city of 775,000 people.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Experts said the future of the Assad regime was hanging in the balance -- and that, if it fell, it would also represent a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.
Media reports said many residents of Damascus were stocking up on supplies as thousands were attempting to leave the country through the border with Lebanon -- itself a war-torn nation in the increasingly chaotic Middle East.
As fighting on the ground and rebel gains intensified, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey held emergency talks in Doha, Qatar, on December 7 calling for an end to hostilities in the most serious challenge to Assad’s rule in years.
The U.S. State Department told RFE/RL that Washington was closely monitoring the situation on the ground in Syria.
A spokesperson said the United States and its partners and allies urged that civilians, including members of minority groups, be protected.
The spokesperson said it was time to negotiate an end to the Syrian conflict consistent with principals established in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The spokesperson added that the refusal of the Assad regime to engage in the process has directly led to the current situation.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that “Assad regime forces have collapsed and Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces.”
Russia has multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin’s actions in Africa.
The ISW said that Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the base, “but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.”
The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats blog said the Assad regime “faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces.”
It added that “Russia will face logistic challenges that will undermine its Africa operations if it loses its footprint in Syria.”
Mark Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason University who focuses on Russia and the Middle East, told RFE/RL that the Kremlin risks losing its air assets in Syria if it can’t agree with Turkey on the use of its airspace.
“In one sense, the Turkish government might be happy to grant permission as the more the Russian Air Force is out of Syria, the happier Ankara will be,” he said.
"Russia would also face difficulties relocating its warships because they would need Turkey's permission to get into the Black Sea. They would have to go through NATO waters," he added.
Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the United States “should have nothing to do” with the war in Syria, where a small contingent of U.S. forces remain deployed in some areas.
"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” he wrote on the Truth Social platform.
“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Fast-moving developments on the ground were difficult to confirm, but media outlets quoted witnesses as well as rebel and Syrian army sources as saying militant fighters were continuing to make large gains on December 7 in their effort to topple Assad.
Some reported signs of panic in Damascus, with shortages of critical supplies, although the government said Assad was at work as usual in the capital.
Government forces and their Russian allies appear to have failed in their attempt to halt the rebel push toward Homs, which stands at an important intersection between the capital, Damascus, and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. Homs is 140 kilometers from the capital.
Witnesses and army sources told Reuters and other news agencies that rebels had entered Homs amid reports that government forces had pulled out. Celebrations were reported in some areas of the city.
Homs Province is Syria’s largest in size and borders Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan. The city is also home to one of Syria’s two state-run oil refineries.
The AFP news agency quoted security sources as saying hundreds of Syrian government troops, some injured, had fled across the border into Iraq.
The surprising offensive was launched last week by a coalition of rebel groups led by the Islamist HTS faction.
Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country's consent.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs toward the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of the Russian air and naval bases.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he “wasn’t in the business of guessing.”
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
Following the foreign ministers' meeting in Doha, Lavrov said -- referring to HTS rebels -- that it was "inadmissible to allow terrorist groups" to take control of Syrian territory and that Russia would oppose them with all means possible.
Since the rebels seized control of Aleppo a week ago, they have moved on to capture other major cities with Assad’s forces providing little resistance.
Besides capturing Aleppo in the north, Hama in the center, and Deir al-Zor in the east, rebels rose up in southern Suweida and Deraa, saying on December 6 they had taken control of the two cities and posting videos showing insurgent celebrations there.
Taking Deraa and Suweida in the south could allow a concerted assault on the capital, Damascus, the seat of Assad's power, military sources said.
Video posted online showed protesters in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana chanting and tearing down a statue of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, when his son took power.
Golani, the HTS leader, told CNN in an exclusive interview on December 5 from Syria that Assad’s government was bound to fall, propped up only by Russia and Iran.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” he said. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.”
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
UN Nuclear Watchdog Says Iran Planning To 'Dramatically Increase' Uranium Enrichment
Iran is poised to significantly increase the production rate of highly enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned in a confidential report.
The IAEA report said the effect of the change "would be to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent," according to news agencies quoting the report on December 6.
This means the rate of production will jump to more than 34 kilograms of highly enriched uranium per month at its Fordow facility alone, compared to 4.7 kilograms previously, the report to the IAEA's board of governors says.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, who spoke to reporters about the report on the sidelines of an international conference in Bahrain, said the increase would represent “seven or eight times or even more," calling the development very concerning.
“They were preparing, and they have all of these facilities sort of in abeyance and now they are activating that. So we are going to see,” he said, adding that it would be a “huge jump” if Iran begins increasing its enrichment.
The report also said Iran must implement tougher safeguard measures such as inspections to ensure Fordow is not being "misused to produce uranium of an enrichment level higher than that declared by Iran, and that there is no diversion of declared nuclear material."
Iran's decision to accelerate production of enriched uranium is in response to recent censure by the IAEA, Grossi told the AFP news agency.
"This is a message. This is a clear message that they are responding to what they feel is pressure," the UN nuclear watchdog's head said.
Tehran was angered by a resolution last month put forward by Britain, Germany, and France, known as the E3, and the United States that faulted Iran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
Britain, Germany, and France have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, in particular since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia.
In addition, there was little progress last week when European and Iranian officials met to determine whether they could enter serious talks on the nuclear program before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers and is now appointing hawks on Iran to his planned administration.
While Iran maintains its program is peaceful, Iranian officials increasingly threaten to potentially seek a nuclear bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile. But experts war that the enrichment of uranium at 60 percent is just a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent, and they say there is no justification for enriching uranium to such a high level under any civilian program.
The news of Iran's decision to increase uranium enrichment came just hours after Tehran claimed it had conducted a successful space launch with its heaviest payload ever. Official media reported that the launch of the Simorgh rocket took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Semnan Province located about 220 kilometers east of Tehran.
Western governments have expressed concern that the Tehran’s ballistic missile program is coming closer to having the ability to launch a weapon against distant foes like the United States.
The Simorgh carried what Iran described as an “orbital propulsion system” and two research systems to a 400-kilometer orbit above the Earth. It also carried the Fakhr-1 satellite for Iran’s military, the first time Iran’s civilian program is known to have carried a military payload.
Iran has said its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Rebels Advance Toward Homs As Thousands Flee
Russian forces bombed a key bridge and highway to try and slow a lightning advance by rebels toward the Syrian city of Homs as thousands fled the area.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs towards the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of Russian air and naval bases.
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and deal losses to the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
A Syrian Army officer was quoted by Reuters as saying that Russian bombing overnight had destroyed the Rastan bridge along the key M5 highway linking Homs to Hama, another city the rebels captured a day earlier.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
In his first media interview in several years, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the group's leader, told CNN the goal "remains to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime, and it is our right to use all available means to achieve this goal."
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria, and Iran were to meet on December 6 to discuss the situation, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the top diplomats from Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara will meet in Qatar on December 7.
The state news agency TASS reported on December 6 that Russia's embassy in Syria had urged Russian nationals to leave the country due to the situation.
- By Kian Sharifi and
- Babak Ghafooriazar
Iran's New Hijab Law Seen As 'Vengeful Act' Against Women
Lengthy prison terms, hefty fines, and travel bans.
Those are among the punishments facing women who violate Iran's new hijab law.
Approved on November 30, the Hijab And Chastity law has triggered uproar in the Islamic republic, where even senior clerics have criticized it.
The 74-article law also calls on the public to report alleged violators to the police and penalizes businesses and taxi drivers who refuse to do so.
"You cannot even call this a law," Nasrin Sotoudeh, a prominent activist and human rights lawyer based in Iran, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Laws are meant to protect citizens, she said, but the new legislation "robs women of their security on the streets."
A growing number of Iranian women have refused to wear the mandatory head scarf -- a key pillar of Iran's Islamic system.
The hijab was central to the unprecedented protests that erupted across Iran in 2022. The demonstrations were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law.
During the protests, women and girls removed and burned their head scarves.
The authorities waged a brutal crackdown on protesters, killing hundreds and arresting thousands.
Sotoudeh said many Iranians want those responsible for the deaths to be "punished." Instead, she said, "lawmakers passed a bill in a vengeful act against women and men."
She warned that critics "will take steps" if the law is not repealed, suggesting that protests may be planned.
Sotoudeh has been in and out of prison for years for her activism and taking up sensitive legal cases, including women detained for peacefully protesting the mandatory hijab.
'Unimplementable' Law
In recent years, the authorities have doubled down on their enforcement of the hijab.
They have reintroduced patrols by the so-called morality police that were suspended in the wake of the 2022 protests.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has also established a new unit in Tehran to enforce the hijab. Its members are called "ambassadors of kindness."
In November, the Tehran Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice announced the creation of a "clinic" to offer "scientific and psychological treatment" to women who refuse to follow the Islamic dress code.
In response, Iranian psychologists raised the alarm about the consequences of "labeling healthy people as sick."
Sotoudeh and Sedigheh Vasmaghi, a rights activist and Islamic scholar, slammed the new hijab law as "shameful" and "medieval" in a joint statement issued on December 1.
The new legislation has proved so controversial that President Masud Pezeshkian said on live television on December 2 that "it cannot be easily implemented." He also questioned the new penalties for convicted hijab violators.
Even several senior clerics have warned against enforcing the new law.
"Not only are large parts of this law unimplementable...but it defeats its purpose and will lead to the youth hating religious teachings," Ayatollah Mostafa Mohaqeq Damad wrote in an open letter to top clerics on December 2.
In a joint statement on December 4, three prominent guilds representing the entertainment industry said any law that "turns your homeland into a big prison is meaningless" and urged the authorities to repeal it.
Britain Seeks Extradition Of 2 Men Charged In Romania Over Attack On British-Iranian Journalist
Britain’s counterterrorism police say they are awaiting the extradition of two Romanian men who are suspects in the stabbing in March of a journalist working for a Persian-language media organization in London.
Britain's Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said on December 5 that Nandito Badea, 19, and George Stana, 23, had been arrested in Romania and charged in the attack on Pouria Zeraati, a London-based TV host for the Iran International news network.
Badea and Stana appeared in a Romanian court after their arrest on December 4 for the start of extradition proceedings," a CPS spokesperson was quoted by Reuters as saying.
"We continue to work closely with Romanian authorities, to ensure that our extradition request is progressed through the courts."
British authorities have authorized charges against both of "wounding and wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm," according to a statement issued by the London Metropolitan Police.
Zeraati, a British-Iranian journalist, suffered injuries after being stabbed near his home on March 29 in southwestern London.
Counterterrorism police have led the investigation into the attack over concerns he had been targeted because of his job at Iran International, which is critical of Iran's government.
“We now await the extradition process to progress so that the men can face prosecution here in the U.K.,” Acting Commander Helen Flanagan of the Counter Terrorism Command said in the statement.
Flanagan said the command planned no further comments on the investigation and urged others not to speculate about the case, given criminal proceedings are now pending.
Officials had previously said that the Romanians were suspected of being associates of an Eastern European crime network hired to carry out an attack directed by Iran’s security services.
The suspects were likely hired to carry out the attack and had arrived in Britain shortly before the incident, according to British police sources quoted by The Guardian newspaper.
British police, security officials, and politicians have issued a number of warnings about what they say is Iran's growing use of criminal proxies to carry out attacks abroad.
The U.S. Justice Department last month unsealed criminal charges that included details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.
FBI Director Christopher Wray said at the time that the charges exposed Iran's “continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens” and dissidents who criticize the Iranian regime, which has rejected accusations that it is involved.
One of the targets of the alleged plot was dissident journalist Masih Alinejad, who said on X that she was shocked to have learned of the conspiracy from the FBI.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021 according to U.S. prosecutors, and in 2022 a man was arrested with a rifle outside her home.
Britain and the United States have imposed sanctions on Iranian officials who they say have been involved in threats to kill journalists on their soil.
Iran International said the network is pleased that the police investigation has made progress.
“It is reassuring for our journalists, as for others in organizations under similar threat," said Adam Baillie, a spokesman for the network, according to Reuters.
Authorities initially believed three suspects were involved in the attack on Zeraati. The three men abandoned their vehicle shortly after the incident and left the country by air within hours, police said.
A third person was detained in Romania on December 4, but was later released, according to individuals familiar with the case quoted by The Washington Post. The London Metropolitan Police statement did not mention the third person or specifically accuse those arrested of acting on behalf of Tehran.
Zeraati did not comment directly on the developments but posted links on his X account to news stories about the arrests made in Romania.
With reporting by Reuters
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Army Says It Has Withdrawn From Key City After Rebel Advance
The Syrian Army said it was redeploying troops "to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat" after Islamist-led rebels entered the key city of Hama, another loss for the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
"Over the past few hours, with the intensification of confrontations between our soldiers and terrorist groups...these groups were able to breach a number of axes in the city and entered it," a Syrian Army statement said on December 5.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
Syrian and Russian forces had shelled the rebels a day earlier and used air strikes to try and stop their advance.
"With that (advance in Hama), Assad's in real trouble. Homs is next & its countryside is FAR more amenable to facilitating an opposition advance," Charles Lister, a senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, wrote on X.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
Syria turned over the air base to Russia in 2015 as Moscow moved in to help Damascus turn the tide of a four-year civil war in its favor.
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The United Nations has said tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting.
Jailed Iranian Nobel Laureate Mohammadi Temporarily Released On Medical Grounds
Imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi has been temporarily released for at least three weeks after receiving urgent medical care, her lawyer said on December 4.
"According to the medical examiner's opinion, the Tehran Prosecutor's Office suspended the execution of Ms. Narges Mohammadi's sentence for three weeks and she was released from prison. The reason for this is her physical condition after tumor removal and bone grafting, which was done 21 days ago," human rights lawyer Mostafa Nili said in a post on X.
Sources confirmed to RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Mohammadi, 52, had been released.
Analysts said that by suspending Mohammadi's sentence instead of granting her a medical furlough, the time she spends outside of prison will be added to her sentence. A medical furlough would have meant time spent outside of prison would be considered the same as time spent incarcerated.
A United Nations spokesman told AFP it was important that Mohammadi was released temporarily for health reasons in order to receive adequate treatment. The spokesman said the UN reiterated its call for her immediate and unconditional release.
Mohammadi has been campaigning for human rights in Iran for decades and has been in and out of prison for the last 20 years. She has been convicted five times since March 2021 and is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence for "spreading propaganda" against the Islamic republic.
Last month, her husband, Taghi Rahmani, said his wife had been moved to a Tehran hospital after suffering health issues for more than two months.
"She had an operation, and the operation was on the right leg, and even moving in the prison, sitting, and doing simple things became impossible for her, and even some prisoners went on hunger strike demanding her release," Rahmani told Radio Farda.
"Although prison is not a place for Narges, there is no place for human rights activists in prison at all. She should not go back to prison and all human rights activists and civil activists should be released from prison," he added.
Despite being nearly continuously incarcerated since 2010, Mohammadi has often tried to raise awareness about prison conditions and alleged abuses faced by female prisoners. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2023.
Her teenage children accepted the award in Oslo on her behalf and read out a statement by Mohammadi in which she criticized Iran's "tyrannical" government.
"Weeks of enduring excruciating pain in prison, despite tireless advocacy from human rights organizations, and international figures, highlights the persistent disregard for Narges Mohammadi’s basic human rights and the inhumane treatment she endures -- even after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize," the Narges Foundation said in a statement.
"The Narges Foundation asserts that a 21-day suspension of Narges Mohammadi's sentence is inadequate. After over a decade of imprisonment, Narges requires specialized medical care in a safe, sanitary environment -- a basic human right. As doctors have emphasized, a minimum of three months' recovery is crucial for her healing."
With reporting by AFP
- By RFE/RL
Erdogan Calls For More Diplomacy In Talks With Putin On Revived Conflict In Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the conflict in northern Syria in a phone call on December 3 to discuss the renewed fighting.
A statement from Erdogan’s office after the call said Syria should not become a source of greater instability.
"President Erdogan emphasized that while Turkey continues to support the territorial integrity of Syria, it also strives for a just and permanent solution in Syria," Erdogan told Putin in their conversation on December 3, according to the statement from Erdogan's office posted on X.
He also said it is important to open more space for diplomacy in the region and the Syrian regime must engage in the political solution process, according to the statement.
Erdogan vowed Turkey will maintain its determined stance on the fight against the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the United States, and its "extensions,” who are trying to take advantage of the recent developments in Syria, the statement said.
Erdogan and Putin spoke as Syrian rebels advanced against government forces after capturing Aleppo last week. The rebels pushed close on December 3 to the major city of Hama, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the rebels said.
The Syrian Observatory said on December 3 that the toll from the rebel offensive in the north had risen to 602 dead, including 104 civilians.
An attack on Hama would ramp up pressure on Assad, whose Russian and Iranian allies have scrambled to support him against the revived rebellion. The city has remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.
A statement from Syria's army command said its forces were striking "terrorist organizations" in north Hama and Idlib provinces with Russian air support.
The Kremlin said Putin stressed the need for a "speedy end to the terrorist aggression against the Syrian state by radical groups." Both leaders noted the importance of further close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the matter, a Kremlin statement said.
"The two presidents will continue to be in contact with each other in the context of seeking steps to de-escalate the crisis," the statement said.
The Syrian civil war had been mostly dormant for years until a major offensive by militants in northwestern Syria revived the conflict.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies last week seized control of most of Aleppo and the surrounding countryside, marking the biggest offensive in years.
HTS is a militant Islamist group that seeks to establish a state in Syria governed by Islamic law. The U.S.-designated terrorist organization has between 5,000 and 10,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
The conflict has pitted Moscow and Tehran against Turkey, which supports armed groups involved in the HTS-led offensive.
Russia's ambassador to the United Nations late on December 3 accused Ukrainian intelligence services of aiding the HTS.
Rebels fighting with HTS are "openly flaunting" that they are supported by Ukraine, Vasily Nebenzya told the UN Security Council.
The envoy said there was an "identifiable trail" showing Ukraine's GUR military intelligence service was "providing weapons to fighters" and claimed Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are training HTS fighters for combat operations, including against Russian troops in Syria.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said earlier that Russia and Iran "bear the main responsibility" for the recent escalation in fighting. It also noted Ukrainians were being targeted on a nightly basis by Iranian-designed drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies in Iran "continue to make every effort not to lose control over the puppet Syrian regime, which is associated by the majority of Syrians with inhuman cruelty, tyranny, and crimes," the ministry said on December 2.
There are indications the conflict could escalate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on December 3 in an interview with a Qatari news outlet that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus asked.
Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad would not be "a mere spectator" in Syria and blamed Israeli military strikes on the Syrian government for the rebel advance, his office said.
Compounding Assad's problems, fighters from a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led coalition battled government forces in the northeast, both sides said, opening a new front along a vital supply route.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and dpa
After Decades Of Mistrust, Iran And Pakistan Join Forces Against Militancy
Iran and Pakistan were on the brink of a full-blown conflict after they exchanged deadly cross-border attacks in January.
The unprecedented flare-up reignited a long-running dispute between the neighbors over cross-border militancy. For decades, the countries have accused each other of harboring armed groups that carry out attacks on the other.
Now, Iran and nuclear-armed Pakistan appear to be expanding their cooperation as they attempt to curb the rising number of attacks carried out by Baluch separatists and militant groups operating along their shared 900-kilomter-long border.
"The two sides have turned a corner in their relationship," said Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
In July, Islamabad handed over to Iran an alleged member of Jaish al-Adl, a Baluch separatist militant group that is believed to be operating out of Pakistan. In return, Iran transferred a Pakistani Baluch separatist figure to Islamabad.
In early November, Jaish al-Adl claimed that 12 of its fighters were killed in a joint operation by Iran and Pakistan. Tehran praised the assault but said that it was conducted by Pakistani forces alone.
Source Of Instability
Iran's southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan and Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province have been the scene of decades-long insurgencies.
The vast and impoverished provinces are home to the Baluch, an ethnic minority in Iran and Pakistan. Baluch in both countries have long faced discrimination and violence at the hands of the authorities, which they accuse of exploiting the region’s natural resources.
Jaish al-Adl and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the largest Baluch armed group in Pakistan, have become increasingly potent fighting forces in recent years.
The groups have adopted more lethal tactics, including suicide bombings, and expanded their recruitment. They have also exploited growing local anger at Tehran and Islamabad, and acquired more sophisticated weapons.
The BLA on November 9 claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing targeting soldiers at a train station in Balochistan that killed at least 26 people.
On October 26, Jaish al-Adl attacked a police patrol in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan Province, killing 10 officers.
Aziz Baloch, an independent Pakistani security expert, says Tehran and Islamabad are coordinating and cooperating on "security and border management for the first time."
Baluch armed groups "have become a leading source of internal instability" in both countries, said Baloch, adding that Iran and Pakistan "have grasped that without turning this situation around through cooperation, they will suffer mounting losses."
Imtiaz Baloch, an analyst covering Balochistan for Khorasan Diary, a website tracking militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, says the collaboration between Iran and Pakistan is deeper than publicly acknowledged.
"Cooperation between the two is deepening and gathering pace," he said.
Economic Incentives
Experts say Pakistan and Iran -- who are both dealing with economic crises -- also have financial incentives for expanding cooperation and tackling cross-border militancy.
Pakistan’s Balochistan is a resource-rich province that is home to dozens of multibillion-dollar Chinese-funded development projects.
Militants have killed at least seven Chinese workers in Pakistan this year, threatening to derail the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Meanwhile, Beijing is a top importer of Iranian oil and a leading investor in its freefalling economy. The Chabahar Port in Sistan-Baluchistan is a key hub for imports and exports to neighboring Afghanistan.
Sabet of the Geneva Graduate Institute said the security risks emanating from Baluch areas in Iran and Pakistan and their geo-economic importance have magnified their place in the development plans of both countries.
"This has led the two governments to embark on an effort to suppress the violence there," he said.
- By AFP
Iran Says To Keep 'Military Advisers' In Syria
Iran said on December 2 that it plans to keep military advisers in Syria after its ally's second city, Aleppo, was overrun by rebels in a surprise offensive. The Islamic republic, which has backed President Bashar al-Assad since Syria's civil war broke out in 2011, says it only deploys military advisers in the country at the invitation of Damascus. "We entered Syria many years ago at the official invitation of the Syrian government, when the Syrian people faced the threat of terrorism," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaeil. "Our military advisers were present in Syria, and they are still present" and would remain in the country "in accordance with the wishes" of its government, he told a news conference in Tehran. Baqaeil did not specify whether or not Iran would be increasing its forces in Syria in the wake of the lightning rebel offensive. His remarks come a day after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to show support for the Syrian president.
Iranian Rapper Previously Sentenced To Death Released From Prison
Toomaj Salehi, an Iranian rapper who was acquitted in court after being sentenced to death over his protest songs against the Islamic republic, was released from custody on December 1, a news agency linked to the judiciary reported. Mizan quoted the Isfahan judiciary as saying that “Salehi, sentenced to one year in prison for the crime of propaganda against the state, was released from prison after serving his sentence.” Salehi was sentenced to death by the Isfahan Revolutionary Court in May on a "corruption on Earth” charge, but the Supreme Court overturned the punishment. Salehi was arrested in October 2022 after making statements in support of protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died in police custody for allegedly wearing her head scarf improperly. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Russian Warplanes Bomb Aleppo Rebels; Iran Says Consulate Attacked
Russian warplanes have joined Syrian air forces to bomb Islamist-led rebels who had taken much of the northwestern city of Aleppo in the biggest challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule in the battle-torn Middle East nation in several years.
Iran, meanwhile, said on November 30 that the rebels had attacked its consulate in Aleppo, calling it "aggression by terrorist elements," although it said there were no injuries and provided few details about the incident.
The Russian and Iranian foreign ministers expressed support for longtime ally Syria, according to Iranian state media, which quoted Iran's Abbas Araqchi as telling Russia's Sergei Lavrov in a call that the attacks were part of an Israeli-U.S. plan to destabilize the region.
The air strikes came a day after Islamists and their Turkish-backed allies breached Syria's Aleppo in a surprise offensive against forces of the Assad government. Reports on the ground said the rebels had captured much of the city, although details remained sketchy.
The Syrian military confirmed that rebels had entered Aleppo. It did not confirm the air attacks, but Russia's Defense Ministry said its air force carried out strikes on the rebels.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on November 29 that Russia regarded the rebels’ actions as a violation of Syria's sovereignty.
"We are in favor of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible," he said.
Reuters quoted two Syrian military sources as saying that Russian and Syrian warplanes had targeted rebel sites in an Aleppo suburb on November 30. The sources said the Kremlin has promised Syria extra military aid, expected to arrive within two to three days.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, said the fighters, led by the Islamist extremist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement, took control of "half of the city of Aleppo," forcing government forces to pull back.
HTS in the past has had links to the Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) extremist groups, although many leaders reportedly split off from those organizations. It was formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusrah and the Al-Nusrah Front, which was Al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria and has been deemed a terrorist organization by the UN and the United States.
In May 2018, the U.S. State Department added HTS to the Al-Nusrah Front's existing December 2012 designation as a foreign terrorist organization.
The rebels’ offensive began on November 27, prompting the Syrian military to close all main roads in and out of the city.
Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the armed rebels had been preparing for the operation since September, but Turkey had so far prevented it from taking place.
The Aleppo violence breaks a pause in the Syrian civil war, which has been mainly quiet over the past four years.
The conflict involved the Assad government backed by Moscow and Tehran against Syrian-Kurdish rebels supported by the United States, while Turkey aided separate rebel groups. The U.S. military still has a number of troops deployed in Kurdish-held areas of Syria.
Terror organizations, including Islamic State, also were involved in fighting.
Russia, Turkey, and Iran signed an agreement in 2019 to freeze the conflict at then current positions.
The Syrian Observatory said at least 16 civilians were killed on November 30 when an air strike, likely carried out by Russian warplanes, hit Aleppo. It said the attack "targeted civilian vehicles" at an intersection, leaving an additional 20 people wounded.
This incident brings the total number of fatalities in the city over the past four days to 327.
The British-based observatory compiles its information from battlefield sources and has been influential throughout the Syrian civil war.
Syria’s army command acknowledged that rebels had entered Aleppo. Rebels had previously controlled the city before being driven out by Russia-backed forces eight years ago.
"The large numbers of terrorists and the multiplicity of battlefronts prompted our armed forces to carry out a redeployment operation aimed at strengthening the defense lines in order to absorb the attack, preserve the lives of civilians and soldiers, and prepare for a counterattack," the Syrian Army said.
The fighting comes amid fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
Israeli forces in Gaza are battling extremists from Hamas – deemed a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU – and a cease-fire hangs in the balance in Lebanon, where Israel has struck the leadership of Hezbollah, also designated a terrorist group by Washington. The EU blacklists Hezbollah’s military arm but not its political wing.
Israeli attacks have also taken place against Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen.
With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP
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