Iran
Iraq: U.S. Expert Discusses Prospects For Stabilization
Kenneth Katzman being interviewed at RFE/RL's Prague broadcasting center (RFE/RL) PRAGUE, December 3, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Kenneth Katzman, a noted specialist on Middle East affairs at the Congressional Research Service, spoke recently with RFE/RL about events in the region. The discussion focused on promoting stability in Iraq and on U.S. relations with Iran.
RFE/RL: Who is supporting the insurgency in Iraq?
Kenneth Katzman: There was a report [in "The New York Times"] that the Iraqi insurgents -- particularly the Sunni insurgents -- have many sources of funding -- oil smuggling, corruption, and various sources. I think some money comes from outside, from the Sunni-Arab states, from private donors. And so they have an ample supply of funds to continue their fight against the Iraqi government.
RFE/RL: And how about the Shi'ite factions?
Katzman: Well, the Shi'a are 60 percent of the country, and they control the security forces. The U.S. has built security forces which are mostly Shi'a. So, actually, the U.S. government has directly given the Shi'a much power and arms. And some of these forces are using these for sectarian violence.
THE COMPLETE STORY: RFE/RL's complete coverage of events in Iraq and that country's ongoing transition.
RFE/RL: There is a lot of talk that there are armed groups within the security forces that are pursuing sectarian violence, but do we have solid evidence of that?
Katzman: I think the U.S. military has sometimes arrested red-handed some of these forces; they found some detention centers that were under the Interior Ministry but were being operated by Badr Brigades [the armed wing of the Shi'ite-led Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)].
Yes, they have found evidence, absolutely. And many of these sectarian groups are using official police uniforms and guns that were issued officially. So, yes, I think they have evidence of this.
RFE/RL: What can be done to prevent this practice from spreading in Iraq? Do you think anything can be done externally, meaning the U.S., the coalition, can do anything? Or does the government have to tackle this problem?
Katzman: Theoretically, the U.S. could do more. The U.S. has been [engaging in] combat against the Sunni insurgents. It is also possible that the U.S. could perform combat against the Shi'ite militias. [Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri] al-Maliki has prevented it. This is the problem. The government is preventing us from cracking down on the Shi'ite militias. So, it is a one-sided battle. It is the U.S. against the Sunnis, but not against the Shi'ite militias. This is why Iraq is so unbalanced and chaotic right now.
RFE/RL: Many Iraqis refer to a group that they call "former Ba'athists" -- by which they mean the instigators of violence. How would you refer to that group?
Katzman: It is mostly Shi'a who say that. They use that term. Everybody who is fighting is a former Ba'athist. Well, it is not only former Ba'athists. It is average Sunnis who feel humiliated by what has happened -- that the U.S. came in, removed [former Iraqi President] Saddam [Hussein] and had this election where the Shi'a won all the power. It is not just ex-Ba'athists. It is all Sunnis who feel humiliated and disenfranchised.
THE COMPLETE PICTURE: RFE/RL's complete coverage of controversy surrounding Iran's nuclear program.
RFE/RL: [Radical Shi'ite cleric] Muqtada al-Sadr says that foreign troops should leave the country. Do you think that this position puts him close to former Ba'athists and, in general, Sunni insurgents?
Katzman: Al-Sadr is interesting because, yes, some of his positions are very similar to some things that the Sunnis say -- that the foreign troops should be out. Yet his Al-Mahdi Army has been very much hard-line on retaliating against Sunnis who commit violence against Shi'a. So he's a little hard to figure out.
RFE/RL: As a political figure, could he be a sort of center of gravity if the coalition leaves?
Katzman: It is very possible. He could be a kingmaker. He could be a determining faction leader. Absolutely. That's possible. He has got a lot of support and he is someone that I'm watching as potentially very pivotal if and when the U.S. leaves.
RFE/RL: Since you seem to think that a split among Shi'ite groups is possible, can you foresee any scenario involving armed struggle among those factions?
Katzman: There has already been armed struggle and I think if the U.S. leaves there will be an armed struggle between the Badr forces and the Al-Mahdi Army. Yes.
RFE/RL: Do you think it will be an all-out struggle?
Katzman: It is certainly possible, but the Al-Mahdi Army seems to be more numerous right now, so I think maybe the Badr has suffered a little bit. They've been more part of the government and the Al-Mahdi forces would have, probably, the advantage.
RFE/RL: Lately everyone has been talking about the Iran-Iraq summit in Tehran. What is your view about Iran's position on Iran?
Katzman: I don't think the Iranians are in a position to deliver any positive result to the U.S. government, even if they wanted to.
RFE/RL: What is the Iranian interest in Iraq really?
SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim (left) meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah in Amman on November 29 (epa)
RFE/RL: And what would they gain from that?
Katzman: They gain strategic depth. They gain the ability to operate in Iraq, much like Pakistan had some depth with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. They have friendly territory and a friendly government that they can influence.
RFE/RL: In other words, in their own way, they are looking for a partner to have peaceful relations with?
Katzman: Yes.
RFE/RL: If that happens, do you think it might be a way out of international isolation for Iran?
Katzman: No. I think that if they were to try to dominate Iraq, they would isolate themselves further because the international community wants to see a sovereign government, an integrated government, a unity [government] in Iraq, not one controlled by Iran.
RFE/RL: Do you envision any possibility of a war between the West and Iran?
Katzman: Anything is possible. Iran is not in compliance with its obligations right now to the United Nations. But I don't think war is necessarily the main option that is being pursued now. It's diplomacy and the Bush administration seems to be committed to playing out diplomacy and seeing if it succeeds.
RFE/RL: How has the Democratic victory in the recent U.S. legislative elections affected U.S. policy toward Iran, given that for the next two years George W. Bush will still be president?
Katzman: I'm not certain that it will affect it that much. There seems to be a bipartisan consensus that Iran needs to be contained, at the very least, and that Iran's nuclear program is a threat and that the package of U.S. sanctions needs to be kept in place. There seems to be a consensus, but even in both parties there are people who think that some engagement with Iran might be beneficial.
RFE/RL: What are the hallmarks of any possible bipartisan proposal for a new policy toward Iran, given that historically and traditionally Democrats have favored a pro-Israeli stand?
Katzman: Iran is perceived as a threat to Israel. [Iranian] President [Mahmud] Ahmadinejad has made some very, very rash statements against Israel. But it is not really Israel that is driving the consensus. It is the consensus that Iran is a threat to American security and, increasingly, a threat to U.S. interests in Iraq, and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan. And Lebanon. And it is motivating Shi'ite movements in the Persian Gulf. So it's broader than just Israel.
RFE/RL: Some observers have said that, despite his rhetoric, President Ahmadinejad has made more attempts than any other Iranian president in the past 27 years to begin a dialogue with the United States. They mention such things as the fact that he has made one trip a year to the United States during his less than two years as president, his meeting with the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, writing an open letter to President Bush, and, finally, inviting President Bush to an uncensored debate. Given the radical social base that President Ahmadinejad appeals to and his roots in the Revolutionary Guards, do you think he is reaching out for a dialogue?
Katzman: I would add to that that he has also suggested that there be direct flights between Iran and the United States. But, yes, he seems to at least not fear dialogue. He feels he has a point of view that can at least resonate. But dialogue really isn't the issue.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani (left) with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in Tehran on November 27 (Fars)
RFE/RL: Some have suggested that in order to stabilize Iraq, it would be a good idea to get Iran involved. On the one hand, you have this issue of ending uranium enrichment as a condition for any dialogue with Iran and, on the other hand, you have Iran trying to avoid that and trying to continue enrichment. How can the U.S. move toward a policy of engagement?
Katzman: Well, the U.S. actually has offered direct talks, as you said, with conditions. I think what the U.S. is trying to say is that there is a [UN] Security Council demand. Iran has not met the demand that it suspend enrichment and I think the U.S. position is that once Iran is in compliance with this demand, there could be potentially fruitful talks on a broader package to make sure Iran's program stays purely peaceful. I think there's a sense that going outside into direct bilateral talks when Iran has not met these demands, that Iran will take advantage, will use it's leverage that way and not ever meet the demand of the United Nations.
RFE/RL: So perhaps there will be no talks because Iran is not willing to give up enrichment?
Katzman: There're two talks -- one is broader talks on the nuclear and strategic issues. The other is more narrow talks on Iraq. And that was offered in the early part of the year and there was some movement toward that, but then Ahmadinejad didn't pursue it and now it's becoming a live issue again. But on Iraq, too, Iran does not seem willing to offer any useful developments that would help the U.S. position in Iraq. So I'm not sure what those talks would yield either.
RFE/RL: That was going to be my next question. Even if Iran is asked to help stabilize Iraq, given the fact that it has limited influence on Shi'ite groups and none on Kurds or Sunnis, what could it do for this purpose?
Katzman: That's precisely right. I don't see anything Iran... Iran has some influence with the Shi'ite groups, but it does not control these groups. Iraq's problems are an internal matter and I'm not convinced that either Iran or Syria -- even if they wanted to be completely cooperative -- would be able to stabilize the situation in Iraq for the United States.
RFE/RL: What about the issues that Iran is sensitive to? The issue of a U.S. military attack -- that seems to be off the table now -- but also, the sanctions plus U.S. help for some groups that are trying to destabilize the Islamic Republic of Iran. Is there a new U.S. stand on these issues?
Katzman: No, there really is not. There is no program to assist non-Persian minorities in Iran or to try to destabilize the government. There's been discussion of a regime-change policy in the United States, but really the policy is not regime change. It is containment and preventing nuclear breakthrough by Iran. And so there is no assistance to any minority groups in Iran. There is no effort to use these groups to destabilize Iran.
RFE/RL: You said that Iran has limited influence on Shi'ite groups in Iraq. But, on the other hand, there are two assessments of the kind of role Iran can play there. First, there is a destructive role -- some say that Iran is interested in a weaker Iraq. The other thinks there is a possibility of some positive role there. Why do you think Iranian influence is limited?
Katzman: I think it is limited because the Shi'ite groups have their own constituencies and their own sources of arms and their own money. They don't need Tehran. It is not like Hizballah, which was a small faction that used Iranian help to grow and grow. These factions in Iraq are very large. They have won many seats in the parliament -- 120 seats or so. They have much influence in the parliament, so they don't necessarily need to be influenced by Iran. They have their own motives.
RFE/RL: How different are their motives from Iran's?
Katzman: Some are very different. The Supreme Council faction [SCIRI], for example, has a plan to have a Shi'ite region in the south, and I think Iran is attracted to that idea. But Muqtada al-Sadr's faction actually opposes the formation of a separate Shi'ite region in the south.
Supporters carry a portrait of al-Sadr during a Baghdad demonstration in July (epa)
RFE/RL: Some say the structure of the Al-Mahdi Army of al-Sadr and the structure of Hizballah are a lot alike. Doesn't this point toward Iran?
Katzman: It is not the structure -- it is the intent and motivations. As I said, Muqtada al-Sadr is different from Iran on key questions, particularly the Shi'ite region in the south. He has visited Iran a few times, but he has a big constituency in Iraq. He doesn't need to be assisted by Iran.
RFE/RL: If you were in the Iraq Study Group [a bipartisan U.S. group that is tasked with making reccomendations on U.S. policy in Iraq] at the moment, where would your focus be primarily?
Katzman: My view is that the entire political structure of Iraq needs to be reworked. The issue is that the Sunnis feel humiliated, outcast, like second-class citizens. There needs to be more balance between the Sunni and the Shi'a in the Iraqi government. So, I would focus particularly on restructuring the Iraqi government.
RFE/RL: Restructuring? In what way?
Katzman: Well, there could be a number of ways. There could be a new cabinet. There could be autonomous regions -- Sunni, Shi'ite, Kurdish regions. There could be a whole new government structure, a new prime minister, a new president, a new cabinet.
RFE/RL: Some say that if the U.S. tried to do that, it would have to admit that it's democratic experiment in Iraq failed.
Katzman: Yes, I recognize that that is an implication of doing that. But the alternative is to say that the elections of 2005 were the correct way to work and to keep pursuing and we can continue to see the kind of chaos in Iraq that we continue to see. What I'm suggesting is, perhaps, a solution to Iraq, which may mean some distance from the original U.S. statements on democracy in Iraq.
RFE/RL: So, your assessment is that this spin of sectarian violence that we see at the moment actually started in 2005 with this new government in place?
Katzman: It started long before 2005, but the elections solidified the position of the Sunnis as the underclass in Iraq and that has given a lot of impetus to, and accelerated, their sectarian motivations.
RFE/RL: And in terms of Shi'ite sectarian motivations?
Katzman: The Shi'a felt that the elections legitimized their control over Iraq and emboldened them. And they have control of the security forces and many of these security forces are committing sectarian atrocities now.
RFE/RL: Do you think it is reasonable to keep insisting on a unified Iraqi state, rather than a federal system or even a split?
Katzman: I think there could be movement toward three autonomous regions -- Sunni, Shi'ite, and Kurdish. And that might be a solution because then the Sunnis wouldn't feel that they are occupied or controlled by the Shi'a.
RFE/RL: If you were to choose between the three options of "go big," "go along," or "go home," what would you do?
Katzman: I'm not sure those are the only three options. And, as I said, those options don't focus on the political structure. I'm a political scientist and U.S. troop levels are secondary to the idea of getting the political structure of Iraq correct.
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- By Kian Sharifi
Cold Snap Exposes Extent Of Iran's Energy Crisis
Despite sitting atop the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages have become a feature of winters in Iran.
Iran grapples with air pollution all year, but air quality significantly worsens during winter when power plants are forced to burn low-quality heavy fuel oil -- mazut -- to compensate for the lack of gas.
A rare cold snap in recent weeks has exposed the extent of Iran's struggles to meet the rising demand for gas, with school classes forced to go online and government offices ordered shut to conserve energy.
Highlighting the severity of the crisis, President Masud Pezeshkian last week appealed to the public to turn their thermostats down by 2 degrees Celsius to help address the energy deficit.
Other government officials have followed suit with similar pleas, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi telling his staff to wear warmer clothes at work.
Temperatures have plunged as low as -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of Iran in recent days.
"The situation is bad due to very cold weather, especially in Tehran and the northern provinces, but it's exacerbated by the structural trend toward runaway consumption over the last two to three years without an accompanying increase in production," said Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
Old Infrastructure, Poor Management
Energy subsidies in Iran mean energy bills are generally low, which has promoted overconsumption.
But making matters worse is a devastating combination of mismanagement and outdated infrastructure that has significantly contributed to Iran's inability to meet the rising demand for gas.
Gas flaring -- the burning of gas that comes out of the ground when drilling for oil -- is a major problem. Iran does not have the technology to collect it, so it is wastefully burned.
World Bank data shows that Iran ranked second globally in 2023 in terms of the volume of gas flaring, burning around 21 billion cubic meters. That is more than double that of the United States, which ranked fourth, and enough to supply 40 percent of the gas demand in neighboring Turkey, which has a population similar to Iran's.
Iran's major gas reserves are in the south, southwest, and offshore, so an expansive and powerful grid is needed to transport gas to the north. To do that, Iran needs to invest heavily both in expanding its aging infrastructure and increasing production, said Brew.
"But that's difficult to do without investment constrained by both a weak economy and international sanctions," he added.
The United States has imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear and missile programs.
The sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy and dented Tehran's ability to sell oil and gas, its key exports. They have also prevented Iran from accessing foreign investment and technology.
The South Pars Field in the Persian Gulf is the world's largest natural gas field, and Iran shares it with Qatar, where it is referred to as the North Dome.
While Qatar has signed lucrative deals with international energy companies to develop its section of the gas field, Iran has had to rely on lackluster domestic capabilities to exploit it.
Iran's seemingly never-ending struggle with gas shortages in winter has led many to question the rationale behind exporting gas to neighboring Iraq and Turkey.
"Given how constrained it is by sanctions, Iran has to find and exploit any means of increasing exports, which increases pressure on supply at home," Brew said.
The stand-off with the West over Iran's nuclear program means the odds of sanctions being lifted are slim, and with Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, the pressure will increase even further, experts said.
U.S. Condemns Tehran Court's 10-Year Sentence For Iranian-American Journalist
The U.S. State Department condemned the 10-year sentence handed down by Iranian authorities against Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"We strongly condemn this sentencing and call for his immediate release and the release of all political prisoners in Iran," a spokesperson told Radio Farda on December 17.
"The Iranian government has repeatedly suppressed press freedom through threats, intimidation, detentions, forced confessions, and the use of violence against journalists in Iran," the spokesperson added.
According to court documents sent to the journalist's lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Tehran's Revolutionary Court on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations following the completion of his sentence.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work.
He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh's detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards.
Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a statement. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Iran Shuts Down Government Offices, Schools Amid Freezing Temperatures, Gas Shortages
Iran closed government offices and shifted school classes online on December 16 due to freezing temperatures and a severe gas shortage. Northern provinces have experienced temperatures plunging to -20°C (-4°F) in recent days, accompanied by widespread gas supply disruptions. President Masud Pezeshkian called on citizens last week to lower their thermostats by 2 degrees Celsius to conserve energy. Other government officials have made similar pleas online. Despite sitting on the world’s second-largest proven gas reserves, Iran’s aging infrastructure has struggled to meet increasing demand during winter. To read the full story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Iran Detains Singer Who Performed Without Head Scarf
Iranian police released singer Parastoo Ahmadi in the early hours of December 15 following a brief detention after she performed without the mandatory head scarf, her lawyer has confirmed.
Ahmadi caused a stir on social media earlier this week after recording a performance with her hair uncovered and wearing a dress. The performance, recorded with a crew of male musicians, was uploaded to YouTube.
The police on December 14 claimed she was released after a "briefing session" but a source close to the family told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that she remained in custody. Her lawyer Milad Panahipur also denied the police claim, writing on X that the authorities were "lying" about her release.
The following day, Panahipur confirmed Ahmadi, who had been detained in her home province of Mazandaran, was released at 3 in the morning.
Two of her bandmates, Soheil Faqih-Nasri and Ehsan Beyraqdar, were also detained briefly.
Ahmadi’s Instagram account is no longer accessible, but her YouTube account remains active.
The video of her performance, dubbed "an imaginary concert" because female performers cannot sing solo in front of an audience, has received around 1.6 million views on YouTube since it was uploaded on December 11.
On December 12, the authorities said legal proceedings had been launched against Ahmadi and her bandmates for the "illegal concert."
Ahmadi, who gained prominence during the 2022 nationwide protests after singing a song in support of demonstrators, has been widely praised for her performance.
On social media, many have hailed her for fighting "gender apartheid" and showing "bravery, resilience, and love."
A rising number of women have been flouting the mandatory hijab in public since the 2022 protests, which gave rise to the Women, Life, Freedom movement.
The authorities have tried to crack down and recently passed a law enhancing the enforcement of the hijab by introducing hefty fines, restricting access to basic services, and lengthy prison sentences.
The new hijab and chastity law, which has been widely criticized by even conservative figures, is scheduled to go into effect this month, but at least two lawmakers have said its implementation has been postponed by the Supreme National Security Council.
Iranian-American Journalist Reza Valizadeh Sentenced To 10 Years In Prison In Iran
An Iranian court has sentenced Reza Valizadeh, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen and former journalist for RFE/RL's Radio Farda, to 10 years in prison on charges of "collaborating with a hostile government."
According to court documents sent to the journalist’s lawyer on December 10 and subsequently reviewed by RFE/RL, Valizadeh was sentenced by Judge Iman Afshari of Tehran’s Revolutionary Court, Branch 26.
In addition to the prison term, Valizadeh was banned for two years following the completion of his sentence from living in Tehran and adjacent provinces, from leaving the country, and from joining political or social organizations.
Valizadeh resigned from Radio Farda in November 2022 after a decade of work. He returned to Iran in early 2024 to visit his family but was arrested on September 22.
His two court sessions, held on November 20 and December 7, reportedly lacked a prosecution representative, with the judge assuming that role.
Sources close to the journalist claim he fell into a "security trap" despite receiving unofficial assurances from Iranian security officials that he would not face legal troubles upon returning to Iran.
The U.S. State Department earlier condemned Valizadeh’s detention, calling it "unjust" and inconsistent with international legal standards. Press freedom organizations, including Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists, urged Iranian authorities to release Valizadeh immediately.
RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus also called for Valizadeh to be released, saying the charges against him, his conviction, and sentence were unjust.
"Time and again, the Iranian regime has attempted to spread its malign influence around the world, trampling on human rights at every opportunity," Capus said in a staetment. "Clearly, this regime feels threatened by the forces of freedom, including independent journalism."
Valizadeh remains in Tehran’s Evin prison under severe restrictions, with limited access to legal representation and family.
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of the press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176th out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom Index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
Husband Of Iranian Rights Lawyer Arrested In Tehran
The husband of prominent Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh has been detained by security forces, according to their daughter.
Mehraveh Khandan said on Instagram that her father, Reza Khandan, was arrested on December 13 at her home in Tehran. The circumstances of Khandan's arrest and the charges against him were not known.
Mohammad Moghimi, a lawyer, said on X that the reason for the arrest was likely related to a six-year prison sentence in a case in which he represented Reza Khandan and activist Farhad Meysami.
The sentence against Reza Khandan was handed down in February 2019 by Tehran's Revolutionary Court. Meysami also faced a similar sentence in the case.
Reza Khandan had been charged with "assembly and collusion against national security," "propaganda against the state," and "spreading and promoting unveiling in society."
The sentence against Reza Khandan also banned him from membership in political parties and groups, leaving the country, and using the Internet and other media and press activities.
Sotoudeh, a vocal advocate for numerous activists, has been arrested several times since 2010. Her detention has included periods of solitary confinement, highlighting the challenges faced by human rights defenders in Iran.
Sotoudeh was arrested last year during the funeral of 17-year-old Armita Garavand, who died of injuries suffered in an alleged confrontation with Iran's morality police in the Tehran subway over a violation of Iran’s compulsory head scarf law.
Reza Khandan said at the time of his wife's arrest in October 2023 that she started a hunger and medication strike after she was severely beaten when she was taken into custody. Sotoudeh was released about two weeks later.
- By RFE/RL,
- Kian Sharifi,
- Kaisa Alliksaar and
- Will Tizard
Is IS Coming Back After Assad's Fall?
Syria's most notorious extremist group has lost power over the last decade but has still managed to hit international targets. Some worry IS could make a comeback in the power vacuum following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Iranian Leader Blames Assad's Downfall On U.S., Israel, And Turkey
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his first public comments since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the rebel uprising that toppled the regime over the weekend.
Khamenei on December 11 also implicitly blamed Turkey for the lightning push of Syrian rebels who reached Damascus from their strongholds in the northwest with little resistance.
"It should not be doubted that what happened in Syria was the product of a joint American and Zionist plot," he said.
"Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, played, and is playing a clear role…but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command center are in America and the Zionist regime," Khamenei added.
The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- ousted Assad on December 8, less than two weeks after launching their offensive.
Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional proxies and allies.
Iran spent billions of dollars and sent military advisers to Syria to ensure Assad remained in power when civil war broke out in 2011.
Russia -- where the ousted Syrian leader has been granted political asylum -- also backed Assad, while Turkey has supported rebel groups who aimed to topple the regime.
A Khamenei adviser once described Syria as the "golden ring" in the chain connecting Iran to its Lebanese partner, Hezbollah. With the ring broken and Hezbollah's capabilities degraded after a devastating war with Israel, experts say the axis has become severely weak.
Khamenei said only "ignorant and uninformed analysts" would assess that the axis has become weak and vowed that its reach "will expand across the region more than before."
Reza Alijani, an Iranian political analyst based in France, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Khamenei's comments were more "trash talk" than anything else.
"The axis may not have been defeated, but it has suffered a serious blow and the Islamic republics arms in the region have been deal major hits," he said.
Alijani argued that factions within the Islamic republic's core support base may be starting to question Khamenei's policies and vision after the recent setbacks, which he said is a cause for concern among the clerical establishment's top brass.
With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
China In Eurasia Briefing: What The Fall Of Assad Means For Beijing
Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and I'm back after a reporting trip in Taiwan. I'm off again for the holidays but will be back here with another newsletter at the end of the year.
Here's what I'm following right now.
Beijing Watches Assad Fall
The full effects from the swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is still playing out on the ground, but his sudden fall is set to shake up the Middle East and beyond.
Here's what it means for China.
Finding Perspective: China has been aligned with Assad since Syria's civil war began in 2011 but largely through its close ties to Russia and Iran, which backed the Syrian leader.
At the United Nations, Beijing has often voted with Moscow, blocking condemnations of Assad as well as cross-border aid. Beijing supported the Assad regime with eight vetoes at the UN, which is half the total vetoes China has ever used.
Beijing significantly reduced its presence in Syria amid the conflict, though it kept building close ties with Assad, eventually culminating in his state visit to China in 2023.
Chinese investment in Syria was scarce, and beyond a strategic partnership agreement and a pledge to join the Belt and Road Initiative there has been essentially no Chinese investment in Syria and no major contracts with Chinese firms in the country since 2010.
So why did Beijing throw its weight behind Assad?
Revisiting The Arab Spring: For Beijing, the biggest issue was the symbolism and appearance of stability that Assad represented, especially given he was first threatened by a popular uprising that then set the Syrian civil war in motion.
The spread of revolutions in the Arab world in 2011 was alarming for the Chinese Communist Party.
Inside China at the time, popular grumbling with corruption at various levels of government was common, and the party was concerned the protests across the Middle East could inspire its own population, especially given simmering tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang at the time.
Added to that was the rise of the Islamic State in Syria. The war led to thousands of Uyghurs, the predominantly Muslim group from western China, traveling to Syria to fight against the Syrian government.
Many of those fighters said they were there to learn how to use weapons and then return to China, and fears over the return of battle-hardened fighters to Xinjiang was one of the pretexts Xi expressed to top party brass to launch the crackdown and camp system in western China that targeted the Uyghur population, according to a set of leaked internal government documents obtained by the New York Times.
Why It Matters: From this logic, Beijing's support for Assad makes sense, but it's a big bet that hasn't paid off.
The fall of Assad is also a reflection of the weakened regional power of two of its main partners: Iran and Russia.
Their inability to prop up Assad indicates they've been consumed by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine, which may be a concern for Beijing looking ahead.
The rapid collapse of the Syrian government is also an unwelcome message at home for Beijing, which was reflected in the way Chinese media covered the events for Chinese viewers.
As images circulated around the world of jubilant crowds and the toppling of statues, Chinese state media's coverage on CCTV mostly centered around a fixed live shot of Damascus without a crowd in sight.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. China Flexes Its Muscles Around Taiwan
Beijing said it is taking "necessary measures" to defend the country's sovereignty and will not tolerate "separatist" activities, as Taiwan reported another rise in Chinese warplanes and ships near the island.
The Details: Taiwan's Defense Ministry said China was deploying its largest navy fleet in regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games.
China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, had been expected to launch drills to express its anger at President Lai Ching-te's tour of the Pacific that ended last week, which included stopovers in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam.
Without any announcement from China on military drills, Taiwan officials are calling the ongoing activity a training exercise and warned it could be used to further violate Taiwan's territorial boundaries.
China, which views Lai as a separatist, held major military exercises around Taiwan following his inauguration in May and his National Day speech in October. It also held a major drill after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022.
2. The California Connection
A Chinese company that owns a California electronics distributor has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use technology to Russia since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the Russian military, my colleagues Mike Eckel and Mark Krutov report.
What You Need To Know: The findings further highlight the difficulty Western countries have had in trying to choke off the Russian military's access to Western technology for use in its weapons and operations as its war on Ukraine continues.
At least one component manufactured by the company, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited, was found in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a public database maintained by the Ukrainian military.
Yangjie Technology, located in the city of Yangzhou northwest of Shanghai, has sent more than 200 shipments of specific goods to Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to customs records obtained by C4ADS, a Washington-based, nonprofit data-analysis and global-research organization.
The listed contents of those shipments -- totaling at least 238 -- included electronic components categorized as "high-priority" by the United States due to their potential use in Russian weapons systems, according to the data obtained by C4ADS and shared with RFE/RL, which independently corroborated more than 150 such shipments.
3. China And Serbia Eye New Cooperation On Extraditions
Serbia has extradited five Chinese citizens in the past five years, according to data obtained by my colleague Mila Manojlovic from RFE/RL's Balkan Service.
What It Means: The data shows extraditions are already taking place. That cooperation is also set to grow as Serbia's Justice Ministry prepares to submit to parliament a draft extradition law with China that, if passed, would expand the scope of cooperation between Beijing and Belgrade.
That extradition deal, which would regulate the bilateral extradition of citizens charged with crimes, is seen by experts as a response to the influx of tourists and Chinese nationals to Serbia that have corresponded with high-profile Chinese investments and loans for projects through the BRI.
According to data from Serbia's National Employment Service, more than 45,000 work permits have been issued to Chinese citizens since 2016, the year the ruling Serbian Progressive Party started intensifying relations with Beijing and expanding BRI projects.
Serbia's Interior Ministry told RFE/RL there are currently 3,433 Chinese citizens registered in the country.
Across The Supercontinent
Looking at 2025: Here's my look at what's on Taiwan's agenda as we prepare to enter 2025, as part of a wider lookahead from across RFE/RL coverage region. My segment begins at 7:25.
Train Links: The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in Mazar-e Sharif on November 23 after crossing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Taliban said 55 containers arrived in Afghanistan after a 22-day journey, marking the inauguration of the first direct train link between China and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
The New Normal: From attacks in Pakistan to new episodes in Tajikistan, my colleagues Bashir Ahmad Gwakh and Frud Bezhan look at how new violence in South and Central Asia could affect Chinese investment projects across the region.
A Late Warning: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on December 2 warned her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Beijing's support for Russia would "impact" ties with Europe.
One Thing To Watch
According to a draft sanctions package obtaind by RFE/RL, the European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
The draft version of the sanctions package was first shared with EU countries on November 22 and would still need to be approved before the end of the year by all 27 member states in order to come into effect.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Wednesday.
- By RFE/RL
Outside Powers Move To Protect Interests In Syria As Rebel-Backed Interim PM Named
Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad as outside powers -- including Russia, Turkey, the United States, and Israel -- maneuvered to protect their geopolitical interests in the war-torn Middle East nation.
In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend.
Little-known Bashir, born in Idlib Province in 1982 and an engineering graduate, had once worked for Syria's state gas entity and has served as head of the rebel's so-called Salvation Government for the past year.
HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government, although Western powers and rights groups remain cautious.
Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, on December 10 told NBC News that Moscow is providing sanctuary to Assad after transporting him there "in the most secure way possible." He didn't provide further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family.
Earlier on December 10, loud explosions were heard amid reports Israel has been systematically striking Syrian military installations following the ouster of Assad’s brutal regime.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the military had struck several Syrian sites and had hit its naval vessels in overnight strikes.
"The [military] has been operating in Syria in recent days to strike and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success," Katz said.
Katz said Israel’s military has been ordered to create a weapons-free zone in southern Syria "to prevent the establishment and organization of terrorism] in the country.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Israel had "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria," including “airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates."
The reports came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "transforming the face of the Middle East" and defeating its enemies "step by step" in what he called an "existential war that has been imposed upon us."
Netanyahu said Assad's regime had been a "central element of Iran's axis of evil," accusing it of facilitating a "weapons pipeline" between Iran and the Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Washington has also conducted some 75 air strikes on Islamic State (IS) militants, who still have a presence in Syria, in recent days to prevent the group from taking advantage of the turmoil that followed Assad's fall.
"You can expect that kind of activity will continue. We don't want to give [IS] an opportunity to exploit what is going on," White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said on December 10.
The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of its decade-long fight against IS.
"[IS] will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on December 9. "As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."
Washington said it is seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region, including Turkey, to initiate informal contacts.
"We have the ability to communicate with the opposition groups, and we'll continue to do that," Kirby said in his briefing.
The Syrian Observatory also said IS militants killed at least 54 government soldiers who were fleeing advancing rebels "during the collapse of the regime" in the Sukhna area of Homs Province. The report could not immediately be verified.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery by Planet Labs showed Russian naval ships have left their Syrian base at Tartus, with some dropping anchor offshore.
Imagery showed at least three vessels -- including two guided missile frigates -- some 13 kilometers off the coast.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim along with the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has ties to many of the rebel groups involved in the takeover, said Ankara will act against anyone seeking to compromise its Syrian territory.
"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again.... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he said.
Turkey has claimed U.S.-backed Syrian-Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria to be "terrorists" linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara, as well as by Washington.
Tehran, which was also a long-standing backer of Assad, on December 10 said some 4,000 Iranian citizens have left Syria over the past three days. Iranian proxies are thought to have multiple military sites inside Syria, some of which have been hit by Israeli air attacks, but the government has so far been relatively muted in its response to Assad's fall.
On December 9, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on the situation in Syria called by Russia, which together with Iran, has been a main backer of Assad's regime.
"The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming to the population in need," said Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, in a statement released after the meeting.
The HTS-led rebels announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, 42, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has become the public face of HTS, which itself was formerly known as the Al Nusra Front, among other names.
Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.
The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has often been used by far-right politicians in Europe to inflame passions and bolster their support among voters.
The EU has urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."
But EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."
The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.
Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.
The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.
With reporting by AP, AFP, and dpa
- By Kian Sharifi
Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'
Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors.
The network was the lynchpin of Tehran's efforts to deter Israel and the United States and exert its influence across the Middle East.
But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say.
For Iran, Syria provided a crucial land corridor to the Levant that was considered the logistical backbone of the axis. The corridor, also known as the Shi'ite Crescent, connected Tehran to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, a key ally and an integral part of the axis.
"There is no axis without access," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "The resistance is not done, but losing the ability to logistically support Hezbollah means the loss of Iran's strategic depth."
Broken Corridor
Underscoring Syria's importance, Iran spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power.
Tehran intervened militarily in Syria's civil war in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
After the loss of the land corridor connecting axis members from Iran to Lebanon, "we are likely to see a much-diminished resistance in the coming months and years," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
The axis, he said, will have "a considerably lower capacity to rebuild or conduct military operations in the future."
At its height, the axis was active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and was meant to give Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.
But the axis has suffered a series of debilitating setbacks in recent months.
Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival. The HTS seized power in Damascus on December 8.
Hezbollah has been severely weakened after a bruising, yearlong war with Israel, which killed the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has diminished the capabilities of U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, another axis member.
Events in Syria "will certainly place significantly more restraints on Iran’s ability to maintain its regional influence," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran's 'Very Bad' Options
Weakened regionally, Iran now has tough decisions to make, including reconsidering its deterrence strategy and possibly developing a nuclear bomb, experts say.
Zimmt says Iran has two "very bad options" -- to do nothing and recognize that its deterrence against Israel has been compromised, or weaponize its nuclear program and expose itself to the possibility of an Israeli attack.
Things look equally grim for Iran’s axis of resistance, according to Sabet, who says Tehran will be under pressure to pull back its regional activities.
Sabet says Iran will seek to exploit any potential chaos in the region, including in post-Assad Syria, to reassert its influence.
"If the civil war in Syria is not quickly settled and a new order created, it might become precisely the type of environment where the Islamic republic has historically thrived," Sabet said.
- By Riin Aljas and
- Carl Schreck
Celebrations, Looting, And Statue Surfing: Scenes From Syria After Assad's Fall
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime sparked nationwide celebrations, as scenes of jubilation and chaos unfolded across the country.
In the early hours of December 8, videos emerged on social media showing groups of people gathering on Umayyad Square in Damascus, a key landmark in the capital. Thousands more joined them throughout the day, with some participants climbing atop a tank.
Social media footage verified by RFE/RL showed people exiting the central bank building in Damascus carrying bags and boxes.
Looting was reported in the capital and in other cities across the country, according to multiple eyewitness accounts.
At the gates of the presidential palace in Damascus, video footage captured jubilant men cheering and firing weapons into the air.
People were seen entering the palace freely throughout the day after Assad fled the country. Russian state media reported later on December 8 that he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum.
Video footage from inside the palace showed crowds milling around, as well as people carrying out furniture and valuables, leaving trashed rooms behind them.
Verified video footage obtained by RFE/RL also showed the building of the Syrian Interior Ministry's immigration and passport department ablaze in Damascus.
Statues of Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, who created the authoritarian system his son inherited, were dismantled nationwide after a lightning-fast rebel offensive.
On Arwad Island, off the coast of Tartus and around 10 kilometers from a Russian naval base, jubilant crowds toppled a statue of the elder Assad, who died in 2000, and climbed onto the monument in celebration.
In Latakia, a coastal town that was a stronghold of the Assad family, another statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down and dragged through the streets behind a truck as revelers rode atop it.
Images also showed the aftermath of the storming of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which appeared to have been abandoned earlier on December 8. Iranian media reported that diplomats had already evacuated the premises.
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says Russia, Iran In 'Weakened State,' Calls On Putin To Make Ukraine Deal
President-elect Donald Trump said Russia and Iran are in a "weakened state" and called on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
Trump made the comments in a post on Truth Social on December 8 as Syrian rebels captured Damascus, ending the half-century rule of the Russia- and Iran-backed Assad family.
The incoming U.S. president said Russia and Iran couldn't come to the support of Syrian dictator Assad because they were in a "weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."
Russia has lost about 600,000 soldiers since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Trump said, adding that Ukraine has lost about 400,000 defending its territory.
"There should be an immediate cease-fire and negotiations should begin," Trump said. "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting!"
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to Trump's comment.
Paris Meeting
Trump said in the post that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy "would like to make a deal."
Trump held talks with Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on December 7 to discuss the war. Zelenskiy called the trilateral talks "good and productive" and said the leaders discussed the potential for "a just peace."
Trump and Zelenskiy were among world leaders who gathered in Paris on December 7 to mark the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
"We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible," Zelenskiy said in a December 7 post on Telegram.
"President Trump, as always, is determined. We are thankful for that," he added.
Macron said, "Let us continue joint efforts for peace, security."
Trump, who will take office on January 20, has criticized the tens of billions of dollars the United States has poured into Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.
He has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours of retaking the White House, a statement that has been interpreted as meaning that Ukraine would have to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.
Experts say it will be difficult to hammer out a peace deal quickly because there are so many aspects, including security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions relief for Russia.
In the meantime, the outgoing Biden administration has been accelerating weapons shipments to Ukraine ahead of the transfer of power to Trump to bolster its defenses.
Washington said on December 7 that it is preparing a $988 million package of arms and equipment to Ukraine, funds taken from the remaining $2.21 billion available in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The funds will be used to buy precision missiles for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and for drones, the Pentagon said.
European countries are also stepping up aid in case the Trump administration ends U.S. support for Kyiv.
Zelenskiy announced on December 7 that Ukraine had received a second shipment of sophisticated F-16 fighter jets from Denmark. Copenhagen announced last year it would deliver a total of 19 aircraft to Ukraine.
"The second batch of F-16s for Ukraine from Denmark is already in Ukraine. This is the leadership in protecting life that distinguishes Denmark," he wrote on Telegram.
Syrians Take To The Streets As Assad's Rule Collapses
Celebrating crowds flooded the streets of Syria's biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, early on December 8 after the opposition declared an end to the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. Men in Damascus snatched the head from a statue of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad. The total of their rule spanned from 1971 to 2024. In the central city of Homs, armed rebels celebrated in the mosque accommodating the grave of medieval Arab commander Khalid Ibn al-Walid. In Damascus, the Iranian Embassy was stormed and looted.
Syrian Rebels 'Liberating' Homs, Eye Damascus As Assad Regime Hangs In Balance
Syrian rebels led by Islamist militants have entered the central city of Homs as they close in on Damascus while the country’s main allies -- Russia and Iran -- scrambled to protect the regime of authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad and their own assets in the country.
Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, said late on December 7 that the insurgent fighters were "in the final moments of liberating" Homs, a city of 775,000 people.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Experts said the future of the Assad regime was hanging in the balance -- and that, if it fell, it would also represent a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.
Media reports said many residents of Damascus were stocking up on supplies as thousands were attempting to leave the country through the border with Lebanon -- itself a war-torn nation in the increasingly chaotic Middle East.
As fighting on the ground and rebel gains intensified, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey held emergency talks in Doha, Qatar, on December 7 calling for an end to hostilities in the most serious challenge to Assad’s rule in years.
The U.S. State Department told RFE/RL that Washington was closely monitoring the situation on the ground in Syria.
A spokesperson said the United States and its partners and allies urged that civilians, including members of minority groups, be protected.
The spokesperson said it was time to negotiate an end to the Syrian conflict consistent with principals established in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The spokesperson added that the refusal of the Assad regime to engage in the process has directly led to the current situation.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that “Assad regime forces have collapsed and Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces.”
Russia has multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin’s actions in Africa.
The ISW said that Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the base, “but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.”
The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats blog said the Assad regime “faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces.”
It added that “Russia will face logistic challenges that will undermine its Africa operations if it loses its footprint in Syria.”
Mark Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason University who focuses on Russia and the Middle East, told RFE/RL that the Kremlin risks losing its air assets in Syria if it can’t agree with Turkey on the use of its airspace.
“In one sense, the Turkish government might be happy to grant permission as the more the Russian Air Force is out of Syria, the happier Ankara will be,” he said.
"Russia would also face difficulties relocating its warships because they would need Turkey's permission to get into the Black Sea. They would have to go through NATO waters," he added.
Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the United States “should have nothing to do” with the war in Syria, where a small contingent of U.S. forces remain deployed in some areas.
"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” he wrote on the Truth Social platform.
“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Fast-moving developments on the ground were difficult to confirm, but media outlets quoted witnesses as well as rebel and Syrian army sources as saying militant fighters were continuing to make large gains on December 7 in their effort to topple Assad.
Some reported signs of panic in Damascus, with shortages of critical supplies, although the government said Assad was at work as usual in the capital.
Government forces and their Russian allies appear to have failed in their attempt to halt the rebel push toward Homs, which stands at an important intersection between the capital, Damascus, and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. Homs is 140 kilometers from the capital.
Witnesses and army sources told Reuters and other news agencies that rebels had entered Homs amid reports that government forces had pulled out. Celebrations were reported in some areas of the city.
Homs Province is Syria’s largest in size and borders Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan. The city is also home to one of Syria’s two state-run oil refineries.
The AFP news agency quoted security sources as saying hundreds of Syrian government troops, some injured, had fled across the border into Iraq.
The surprising offensive was launched last week by a coalition of rebel groups led by the Islamist HTS faction.
Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country's consent.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs toward the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of the Russian air and naval bases.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he “wasn’t in the business of guessing.”
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
Following the foreign ministers' meeting in Doha, Lavrov said -- referring to HTS rebels -- that it was "inadmissible to allow terrorist groups" to take control of Syrian territory and that Russia would oppose them with all means possible.
Since the rebels seized control of Aleppo a week ago, they have moved on to capture other major cities with Assad’s forces providing little resistance.
Besides capturing Aleppo in the north, Hama in the center, and Deir al-Zor in the east, rebels rose up in southern Suweida and Deraa, saying on December 6 they had taken control of the two cities and posting videos showing insurgent celebrations there.
Taking Deraa and Suweida in the south could allow a concerted assault on the capital, Damascus, the seat of Assad's power, military sources said.
Video posted online showed protesters in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana chanting and tearing down a statue of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, when his son took power.
Golani, the HTS leader, told CNN in an exclusive interview on December 5 from Syria that Assad’s government was bound to fall, propped up only by Russia and Iran.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” he said. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.”
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
UN Nuclear Watchdog Says Iran Planning To 'Dramatically Increase' Uranium Enrichment
Iran is poised to significantly increase the production rate of highly enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned in a confidential report.
The IAEA report said the effect of the change "would be to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent," according to news agencies quoting the report on December 6.
This means the rate of production will jump to more than 34 kilograms of highly enriched uranium per month at its Fordow facility alone, compared to 4.7 kilograms previously, the report to the IAEA's board of governors says.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, who spoke to reporters about the report on the sidelines of an international conference in Bahrain, said the increase would represent “seven or eight times or even more," calling the development very concerning.
“They were preparing, and they have all of these facilities sort of in abeyance and now they are activating that. So we are going to see,” he said, adding that it would be a “huge jump” if Iran begins increasing its enrichment.
The report also said Iran must implement tougher safeguard measures such as inspections to ensure Fordow is not being "misused to produce uranium of an enrichment level higher than that declared by Iran, and that there is no diversion of declared nuclear material."
Iran's decision to accelerate production of enriched uranium is in response to recent censure by the IAEA, Grossi told the AFP news agency.
"This is a message. This is a clear message that they are responding to what they feel is pressure," the UN nuclear watchdog's head said.
Tehran was angered by a resolution last month put forward by Britain, Germany, and France, known as the E3, and the United States that faulted Iran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
Britain, Germany, and France have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, in particular since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia.
In addition, there was little progress last week when European and Iranian officials met to determine whether they could enter serious talks on the nuclear program before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers and is now appointing hawks on Iran to his planned administration.
While Iran maintains its program is peaceful, Iranian officials increasingly threaten to potentially seek a nuclear bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile. But experts war that the enrichment of uranium at 60 percent is just a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent, and they say there is no justification for enriching uranium to such a high level under any civilian program.
The news of Iran's decision to increase uranium enrichment came just hours after Tehran claimed it had conducted a successful space launch with its heaviest payload ever. Official media reported that the launch of the Simorgh rocket took place at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Semnan Province located about 220 kilometers east of Tehran.
Western governments have expressed concern that the Tehran’s ballistic missile program is coming closer to having the ability to launch a weapon against distant foes like the United States.
The Simorgh carried what Iran described as an “orbital propulsion system” and two research systems to a 400-kilometer orbit above the Earth. It also carried the Fakhr-1 satellite for Iran’s military, the first time Iran’s civilian program is known to have carried a military payload.
Iran has said its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Rebels Advance Toward Homs As Thousands Flee
Russian forces bombed a key bridge and highway to try and slow a lightning advance by rebels toward the Syrian city of Homs as thousands fled the area.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs towards the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of Russian air and naval bases.
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and deal losses to the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
A Syrian Army officer was quoted by Reuters as saying that Russian bombing overnight had destroyed the Rastan bridge along the key M5 highway linking Homs to Hama, another city the rebels captured a day earlier.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
In his first media interview in several years, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the group's leader, told CNN the goal "remains to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime, and it is our right to use all available means to achieve this goal."
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria, and Iran were to meet on December 6 to discuss the situation, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the top diplomats from Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara will meet in Qatar on December 7.
The state news agency TASS reported on December 6 that Russia's embassy in Syria had urged Russian nationals to leave the country due to the situation.
- By Kian Sharifi and
- Babak Ghafooriazar
Iran's New Hijab Law Seen As 'Vengeful Act' Against Women
Lengthy prison terms, hefty fines, and travel bans.
Those are among the punishments facing women who violate Iran's new hijab law.
Approved on November 30, the Hijab And Chastity law has triggered uproar in the Islamic republic, where even senior clerics have criticized it.
The 74-article law also calls on the public to report alleged violators to the police and penalizes businesses and taxi drivers who refuse to do so.
"You cannot even call this a law," Nasrin Sotoudeh, a prominent activist and human rights lawyer based in Iran, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Laws are meant to protect citizens, she said, but the new legislation "robs women of their security on the streets."
A growing number of Iranian women have refused to wear the mandatory head scarf -- a key pillar of Iran's Islamic system.
The hijab was central to the unprecedented protests that erupted across Iran in 2022. The demonstrations were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law.
During the protests, women and girls removed and burned their head scarves.
The authorities waged a brutal crackdown on protesters, killing hundreds and arresting thousands.
Sotoudeh said many Iranians want those responsible for the deaths to be "punished." Instead, she said, "lawmakers passed a bill in a vengeful act against women and men."
She warned that critics "will take steps" if the law is not repealed, suggesting that protests may be planned.
Sotoudeh has been in and out of prison for years for her activism and taking up sensitive legal cases, including women detained for peacefully protesting the mandatory hijab.
'Unimplementable' Law
In recent years, the authorities have doubled down on their enforcement of the hijab.
They have reintroduced patrols by the so-called morality police that were suspended in the wake of the 2022 protests.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has also established a new unit in Tehran to enforce the hijab. Its members are called "ambassadors of kindness."
In November, the Tehran Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice announced the creation of a "clinic" to offer "scientific and psychological treatment" to women who refuse to follow the Islamic dress code.
In response, Iranian psychologists raised the alarm about the consequences of "labeling healthy people as sick."
Sotoudeh and Sedigheh Vasmaghi, a rights activist and Islamic scholar, slammed the new hijab law as "shameful" and "medieval" in a joint statement issued on December 1.
The new legislation has proved so controversial that President Masud Pezeshkian said on live television on December 2 that "it cannot be easily implemented." He also questioned the new penalties for convicted hijab violators.
Even several senior clerics have warned against enforcing the new law.
"Not only are large parts of this law unimplementable...but it defeats its purpose and will lead to the youth hating religious teachings," Ayatollah Mostafa Mohaqeq Damad wrote in an open letter to top clerics on December 2.
In a joint statement on December 4, three prominent guilds representing the entertainment industry said any law that "turns your homeland into a big prison is meaningless" and urged the authorities to repeal it.
Britain Seeks Extradition Of 2 Men Charged In Romania Over Attack On British-Iranian Journalist
Britain’s counterterrorism police say they are awaiting the extradition of two Romanian men who are suspects in the stabbing in March of a journalist working for a Persian-language media organization in London.
Britain's Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said on December 5 that Nandito Badea, 19, and George Stana, 23, had been arrested in Romania and charged in the attack on Pouria Zeraati, a London-based TV host for the Iran International news network.
Badea and Stana appeared in a Romanian court after their arrest on December 4 for the start of extradition proceedings," a CPS spokesperson was quoted by Reuters as saying.
"We continue to work closely with Romanian authorities, to ensure that our extradition request is progressed through the courts."
British authorities have authorized charges against both of "wounding and wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm," according to a statement issued by the London Metropolitan Police.
Zeraati, a British-Iranian journalist, suffered injuries after being stabbed near his home on March 29 in southwestern London.
Counterterrorism police have led the investigation into the attack over concerns he had been targeted because of his job at Iran International, which is critical of Iran's government.
“We now await the extradition process to progress so that the men can face prosecution here in the U.K.,” Acting Commander Helen Flanagan of the Counter Terrorism Command said in the statement.
Flanagan said the command planned no further comments on the investigation and urged others not to speculate about the case, given criminal proceedings are now pending.
Officials had previously said that the Romanians were suspected of being associates of an Eastern European crime network hired to carry out an attack directed by Iran’s security services.
The suspects were likely hired to carry out the attack and had arrived in Britain shortly before the incident, according to British police sources quoted by The Guardian newspaper.
British police, security officials, and politicians have issued a number of warnings about what they say is Iran's growing use of criminal proxies to carry out attacks abroad.
The U.S. Justice Department last month unsealed criminal charges that included details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.
FBI Director Christopher Wray said at the time that the charges exposed Iran's “continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens” and dissidents who criticize the Iranian regime, which has rejected accusations that it is involved.
One of the targets of the alleged plot was dissident journalist Masih Alinejad, who said on X that she was shocked to have learned of the conspiracy from the FBI.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021 according to U.S. prosecutors, and in 2022 a man was arrested with a rifle outside her home.
Britain and the United States have imposed sanctions on Iranian officials who they say have been involved in threats to kill journalists on their soil.
Iran International said the network is pleased that the police investigation has made progress.
“It is reassuring for our journalists, as for others in organizations under similar threat," said Adam Baillie, a spokesman for the network, according to Reuters.
Authorities initially believed three suspects were involved in the attack on Zeraati. The three men abandoned their vehicle shortly after the incident and left the country by air within hours, police said.
A third person was detained in Romania on December 4, but was later released, according to individuals familiar with the case quoted by The Washington Post. The London Metropolitan Police statement did not mention the third person or specifically accuse those arrested of acting on behalf of Tehran.
Zeraati did not comment directly on the developments but posted links on his X account to news stories about the arrests made in Romania.
With reporting by Reuters
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Army Says It Has Withdrawn From Key City After Rebel Advance
The Syrian Army said it was redeploying troops "to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat" after Islamist-led rebels entered the key city of Hama, another loss for the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
"Over the past few hours, with the intensification of confrontations between our soldiers and terrorist groups...these groups were able to breach a number of axes in the city and entered it," a Syrian Army statement said on December 5.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
Syrian and Russian forces had shelled the rebels a day earlier and used air strikes to try and stop their advance.
"With that (advance in Hama), Assad's in real trouble. Homs is next & its countryside is FAR more amenable to facilitating an opposition advance," Charles Lister, a senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, wrote on X.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
Syria turned over the air base to Russia in 2015 as Moscow moved in to help Damascus turn the tide of a four-year civil war in its favor.
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The United Nations has said tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting.
Jailed Iranian Nobel Laureate Mohammadi Temporarily Released On Medical Grounds
Imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi has been temporarily released for at least three weeks after receiving urgent medical care, her lawyer said on December 4.
"According to the medical examiner's opinion, the Tehran Prosecutor's Office suspended the execution of Ms. Narges Mohammadi's sentence for three weeks and she was released from prison. The reason for this is her physical condition after tumor removal and bone grafting, which was done 21 days ago," human rights lawyer Mostafa Nili said in a post on X.
Sources confirmed to RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Mohammadi, 52, had been released.
Analysts said that by suspending Mohammadi's sentence instead of granting her a medical furlough, the time she spends outside of prison will be added to her sentence. A medical furlough would have meant time spent outside of prison would be considered the same as time spent incarcerated.
A United Nations spokesman told AFP it was important that Mohammadi was released temporarily for health reasons in order to receive adequate treatment. The spokesman said the UN reiterated its call for her immediate and unconditional release.
Mohammadi has been campaigning for human rights in Iran for decades and has been in and out of prison for the last 20 years. She has been convicted five times since March 2021 and is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence for "spreading propaganda" against the Islamic republic.
Last month, her husband, Taghi Rahmani, said his wife had been moved to a Tehran hospital after suffering health issues for more than two months.
"She had an operation, and the operation was on the right leg, and even moving in the prison, sitting, and doing simple things became impossible for her, and even some prisoners went on hunger strike demanding her release," Rahmani told Radio Farda.
"Although prison is not a place for Narges, there is no place for human rights activists in prison at all. She should not go back to prison and all human rights activists and civil activists should be released from prison," he added.
Despite being nearly continuously incarcerated since 2010, Mohammadi has often tried to raise awareness about prison conditions and alleged abuses faced by female prisoners. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2023.
Her teenage children accepted the award in Oslo on her behalf and read out a statement by Mohammadi in which she criticized Iran's "tyrannical" government.
"Weeks of enduring excruciating pain in prison, despite tireless advocacy from human rights organizations, and international figures, highlights the persistent disregard for Narges Mohammadi’s basic human rights and the inhumane treatment she endures -- even after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize," the Narges Foundation said in a statement.
"The Narges Foundation asserts that a 21-day suspension of Narges Mohammadi's sentence is inadequate. After over a decade of imprisonment, Narges requires specialized medical care in a safe, sanitary environment -- a basic human right. As doctors have emphasized, a minimum of three months' recovery is crucial for her healing."
With reporting by AFP
- By RFE/RL
Erdogan Calls For More Diplomacy In Talks With Putin On Revived Conflict In Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the conflict in northern Syria in a phone call on December 3 to discuss the renewed fighting.
A statement from Erdogan’s office after the call said Syria should not become a source of greater instability.
"President Erdogan emphasized that while Turkey continues to support the territorial integrity of Syria, it also strives for a just and permanent solution in Syria," Erdogan told Putin in their conversation on December 3, according to the statement from Erdogan's office posted on X.
He also said it is important to open more space for diplomacy in the region and the Syrian regime must engage in the political solution process, according to the statement.
Erdogan vowed Turkey will maintain its determined stance on the fight against the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the United States, and its "extensions,” who are trying to take advantage of the recent developments in Syria, the statement said.
Erdogan and Putin spoke as Syrian rebels advanced against government forces after capturing Aleppo last week. The rebels pushed close on December 3 to the major city of Hama, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the rebels said.
The Syrian Observatory said on December 3 that the toll from the rebel offensive in the north had risen to 602 dead, including 104 civilians.
An attack on Hama would ramp up pressure on Assad, whose Russian and Iranian allies have scrambled to support him against the revived rebellion. The city has remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.
A statement from Syria's army command said its forces were striking "terrorist organizations" in north Hama and Idlib provinces with Russian air support.
The Kremlin said Putin stressed the need for a "speedy end to the terrorist aggression against the Syrian state by radical groups." Both leaders noted the importance of further close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the matter, a Kremlin statement said.
"The two presidents will continue to be in contact with each other in the context of seeking steps to de-escalate the crisis," the statement said.
The Syrian civil war had been mostly dormant for years until a major offensive by militants in northwestern Syria revived the conflict.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies last week seized control of most of Aleppo and the surrounding countryside, marking the biggest offensive in years.
HTS is a militant Islamist group that seeks to establish a state in Syria governed by Islamic law. The U.S.-designated terrorist organization has between 5,000 and 10,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
The conflict has pitted Moscow and Tehran against Turkey, which supports armed groups involved in the HTS-led offensive.
Russia's ambassador to the United Nations late on December 3 accused Ukrainian intelligence services of aiding the HTS.
Rebels fighting with HTS are "openly flaunting" that they are supported by Ukraine, Vasily Nebenzya told the UN Security Council.
The envoy said there was an "identifiable trail" showing Ukraine's GUR military intelligence service was "providing weapons to fighters" and claimed Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are training HTS fighters for combat operations, including against Russian troops in Syria.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said earlier that Russia and Iran "bear the main responsibility" for the recent escalation in fighting. It also noted Ukrainians were being targeted on a nightly basis by Iranian-designed drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies in Iran "continue to make every effort not to lose control over the puppet Syrian regime, which is associated by the majority of Syrians with inhuman cruelty, tyranny, and crimes," the ministry said on December 2.
There are indications the conflict could escalate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on December 3 in an interview with a Qatari news outlet that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus asked.
Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad would not be "a mere spectator" in Syria and blamed Israeli military strikes on the Syrian government for the rebel advance, his office said.
Compounding Assad's problems, fighters from a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led coalition battled government forces in the northeast, both sides said, opening a new front along a vital supply route.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and dpa
After Decades Of Mistrust, Iran And Pakistan Join Forces Against Militancy
Iran and Pakistan were on the brink of a full-blown conflict after they exchanged deadly cross-border attacks in January.
The unprecedented flare-up reignited a long-running dispute between the neighbors over cross-border militancy. For decades, the countries have accused each other of harboring armed groups that carry out attacks on the other.
Now, Iran and nuclear-armed Pakistan appear to be expanding their cooperation as they attempt to curb the rising number of attacks carried out by Baluch separatists and militant groups operating along their shared 900-kilomter-long border.
"The two sides have turned a corner in their relationship," said Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
In July, Islamabad handed over to Iran an alleged member of Jaish al-Adl, a Baluch separatist militant group that is believed to be operating out of Pakistan. In return, Iran transferred a Pakistani Baluch separatist figure to Islamabad.
In early November, Jaish al-Adl claimed that 12 of its fighters were killed in a joint operation by Iran and Pakistan. Tehran praised the assault but said that it was conducted by Pakistani forces alone.
Source Of Instability
Iran's southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan and Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province have been the scene of decades-long insurgencies.
The vast and impoverished provinces are home to the Baluch, an ethnic minority in Iran and Pakistan. Baluch in both countries have long faced discrimination and violence at the hands of the authorities, which they accuse of exploiting the region’s natural resources.
Jaish al-Adl and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the largest Baluch armed group in Pakistan, have become increasingly potent fighting forces in recent years.
The groups have adopted more lethal tactics, including suicide bombings, and expanded their recruitment. They have also exploited growing local anger at Tehran and Islamabad, and acquired more sophisticated weapons.
The BLA on November 9 claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing targeting soldiers at a train station in Balochistan that killed at least 26 people.
On October 26, Jaish al-Adl attacked a police patrol in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan Province, killing 10 officers.
Aziz Baloch, an independent Pakistani security expert, says Tehran and Islamabad are coordinating and cooperating on "security and border management for the first time."
Baluch armed groups "have become a leading source of internal instability" in both countries, said Baloch, adding that Iran and Pakistan "have grasped that without turning this situation around through cooperation, they will suffer mounting losses."
Imtiaz Baloch, an analyst covering Balochistan for Khorasan Diary, a website tracking militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, says the collaboration between Iran and Pakistan is deeper than publicly acknowledged.
"Cooperation between the two is deepening and gathering pace," he said.
Economic Incentives
Experts say Pakistan and Iran -- who are both dealing with economic crises -- also have financial incentives for expanding cooperation and tackling cross-border militancy.
Pakistan’s Balochistan is a resource-rich province that is home to dozens of multibillion-dollar Chinese-funded development projects.
Militants have killed at least seven Chinese workers in Pakistan this year, threatening to derail the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Meanwhile, Beijing is a top importer of Iranian oil and a leading investor in its freefalling economy. The Chabahar Port in Sistan-Baluchistan is a key hub for imports and exports to neighboring Afghanistan.
Sabet of the Geneva Graduate Institute said the security risks emanating from Baluch areas in Iran and Pakistan and their geo-economic importance have magnified their place in the development plans of both countries.
"This has led the two governments to embark on an effort to suppress the violence there," he said.
- By AFP
Iran Says To Keep 'Military Advisers' In Syria
Iran said on December 2 that it plans to keep military advisers in Syria after its ally's second city, Aleppo, was overrun by rebels in a surprise offensive. The Islamic republic, which has backed President Bashar al-Assad since Syria's civil war broke out in 2011, says it only deploys military advisers in the country at the invitation of Damascus. "We entered Syria many years ago at the official invitation of the Syrian government, when the Syrian people faced the threat of terrorism," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaeil. "Our military advisers were present in Syria, and they are still present" and would remain in the country "in accordance with the wishes" of its government, he told a news conference in Tehran. Baqaeil did not specify whether or not Iran would be increasing its forces in Syria in the wake of the lightning rebel offensive. His remarks come a day after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to show support for the Syrian president.
Iranian Rapper Previously Sentenced To Death Released From Prison
Toomaj Salehi, an Iranian rapper who was acquitted in court after being sentenced to death over his protest songs against the Islamic republic, was released from custody on December 1, a news agency linked to the judiciary reported. Mizan quoted the Isfahan judiciary as saying that “Salehi, sentenced to one year in prison for the crime of propaganda against the state, was released from prison after serving his sentence.” Salehi was sentenced to death by the Isfahan Revolutionary Court in May on a "corruption on Earth” charge, but the Supreme Court overturned the punishment. Salehi was arrested in October 2022 after making statements in support of protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died in police custody for allegedly wearing her head scarf improperly. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
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