Iran
- By Jeffrey Donovan
U.S.: Bush Moves To Contain Iranian Influence
Israel and Washington are increasingly concerned about Iranian President Ahmadinejad's intentions (Fars) January 18, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Urged by outside experts and opposition Democrats to embrace diplomacy with Iran and Syria, U.S. President Bush has instead intensified U.S. efforts to contain Tehran's influence in Iraq and the wider Middle East.
On January 10, Bush unveiled a new strategy for Iraq that includes sending more than 20,000 additional U.S. troops to the country. But the real import of his new Iraq plan may be a fresh focus on Iran and Syria.
"These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq," Bush said. "Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria, and we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq."
Something To Prove?
Indeed, the day after Bush spoke, U.S. forces arrested six Iranians in the Iraqi city of Irbil, accusing them of involvement in attacks against Iraqi civilians and military forces. Iran has vehemently protested the arrest and demanded the release of the five still being held.
Since the president's speech, several senior U.S. officials have reiterated Bush's focus on Iran and its ally Syria.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, speaking on January 15 in Brussels, suggested that the United States has something to prove to Iran.
"The Iranians clearly believe that we are tied down in Iraq, that they have the initiative, that they are in a position to press us in many ways," he said. "They're doing nothing to be constructive in Iraq at this point."
But targeting Iranian and Syrian operatives in Iraq appears to be only part of the new strategy.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice just completed a tour of the region. It included a meeting with Sunni Arab foreign ministers in Kuwait that analysts called an effort to build an alliance to back U.S. stabilization efforts in Iraq and containment of Iran.
Another Carrier Group
But the most eye-catching part of the latest development is a large-scale buildup of U.S. military force in the region.
In the last week, the United States has confirmed the imminent arrival in the Persian Gulf of a second aircraft carrier strike force, as well as Patriot antimissile systems.
"There is a buildup here," says Anthony Cordesman, a former senior U.S. defense official who is now a military and Middle East analyst. "It is a buildup to deal with issues like Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq; with the fact that if you are going to be much more active in dealing with Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite militias, you may indeed need considerably more airpower."
The "USS John C. Stennis" strike group will join the "USS Dwight D. Eisenhower" aircraft-carrier group later this month in what the U.S. Navy called "a warning to Syria and Iran" in the face of acts seen as provocative.
The new strike force will give Washington 16,000 sailors in the region, as well as another nuclear carrier, seven escort warships, 10 air squadrons, 2 submarines, and helicopters to support amphibious landings.
Also this week, reports from Turkey say 16 American F-16 fighter jets have recently arrived at the country's southern Incirlik air base. Officially, they are there for exercises with Turkish NATO forces, but the timing of their arrival and proximity to Iraq and Iran have not been lost upon observers.
Finally, for the first time in history, a Navy officer has been put in charge of U.S. Central Command. Admiral William Fallon, an expert in air warfare, will be tasked with overseeing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. But Iran will also be part of his purview.
Concerns About Spreading Conflict
All these developments have helped spark a frenzy of media speculation: Is the United States, perhaps with Israel, moving toward military action against Iran?
U.S. lawmakers this week voiced concern the Iraq war could spread to Iran or Syria if U.S. troops chased militants across the border.
U.S. Admiral William Fallon, the first naval officer ever to head U.S. Central Command (epa)
That point has been reiterated by General Peter Pace, the top U.S. military official -- an assurance that Cordesman believes to be sincere:
"Iran certainly is able to play a spoiler role in the region," Cordesman says. "It's able to use proxies like the Hizballah and extremist movements, its ties to Syria and to Iraqi militias raise issues. But it is a long way from being a major regional power and certainly one that can challenge anybody as long as the United States and its regional allies resist."
How Close Is Iran To Nukes?
Cordesman suggests that some have exaggerated the Iranian threat, including the timing of when Iran might ever acquire nuclear weapons.
"It is probably only going to have nuclear weapons, if it has them, well after 2010," he says. "Its missile programs, while they continue to grow and become more sophisticated, still are largely in the development phase and do not have a good track record of tests. Its overall arms modernization can't even cope with the growing obsolescence of its existing arms. So as a military power, it is declining, not rising."
But others beg to differ.
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have made no secret of their concerns that Iran is close to obtaining nuclear weapons. They see that as a mortal threat, given Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's frequent virulent anti-Israeli statements.
A January 6 report in the "Times" of London said Israel has a secret plan to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities by using low-yield nuclear weapons. Israel immediately denied that story.
Other analysts say the U.S. military buildup and Fallon's appointment make sense if seen as steps toward striking Iran's nuclear facilities.
Cordesman is not one of them. He says the buildup, while significant, still wouldn't be enough to launch a serious campaign against Iran.
Iraq And Iran
Iranian Shi'a protesting the Golden Mosque Bombing in Iraq on February 24
WHAT IS GOING ON? On March 8, RFE/RL's Washington office hosted a roundtable discussion on relations between Iraq and Iran. Although most analysts agree that Iran has been actively involved in Iraq since the U.S.-led military operation to oust former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, they continue to debate the nature, extent, and intent of that involvement.
The RFE/RL briefing featured WAYNE WHITE, former deputy director of the U.S. State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research's Office of Analysis for the Near East and South Asia, and A. WILLIAM SAMII, RFE/RL's regional analyst for Iran and editor of the "RFE/RL Iran Report."
LISTEN
Listen to the complete RFE/RL briefing (about 75 minutes):Real Audio Windows Media
RELATED ARTICLES
Iran/Iraq: Bilateral Ties Improving Despite U.S. Worries
Renewed Speculation About Tehran And Instability In Iraq
Iran/Iraq: Neighbors Mending Ties, But Outstanding Issues Remain
ARCHIVE
RFE/RL's coverage of Iran. RFE/RL's coverage of Iraq.More News
- By RFE/RL
Iranian Activist Ronaghi Temporarily Detained After Tehran Protest , Family Says
Iranian rights activist Hossein Ronaghi was held for several hours after being detained following a sit-in protest in central Tehran, his family said on November 18. "Ronaghi was violently arrested by a large number of armed officers at 5 p.m. at Vali-e Asr Square" before being released at his front door at 9 p.m., his brother Hassan said on Telegram. Ronaghi had announced the protest on Telegram, saying it was to honor Kianoosh Sanjari, a journalist and political activist who jumped to his death from a Tehran building on November 13 to protest the numerous arrests and interrogations of himself and other political activists.
- By RFE/RL
PEN Urges UN Rights Council To Aid Imprisoned Iranian Nobel Laureate
The U.S.-based PEN America free-speech watchdog has asked the UN Human Rights Council to intervene in the case of imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, who it said is in "urgent need of medical care." In an open letter, PEN urged the UN “to call on the Iranian authorities to grant Mohammadi a medical furlough on humanitarian grounds so that she is able to receive comprehensive and essential care for a range of serious medical conditions." Mohammadi, 52, has been in and out of prison for the past 20 years. She is currently serving a 12-year sentence in Tehran's Evin prison for "spreading propaganda," allegations that she, her family, and supporters reject.
- By RFE/RL
EU Widens Sanctions On Iran For Supporting Russia's War On Ukraine
The EU has widened its sanctions against Iran over the country's support of the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine, the European Commission said on November 18, targeting firms, ports, and individuals involved in the transfer of ballistic missiles and drones to Russia for use on the battlefield.
Included in the new sanctions are the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) -- which will see its assets frozen -- and measures targeting the activities of Iranian ports on the Caspian Sea linked to listed entities and individuals.
The EU said it decided to "widen the scope of the EU framework for restrictive measures in view of Iran's military support to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and to armed groups and entities in the Middle East and the Red Sea region."
It said the new measures target "the use of vessels and ports for the transfer of Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, and related technologies and components."
The United States, Britain, France, and Germany have accused Iran of sending ballistic missiles and related technology to Russia for use against Ukraine, sparking consultations among European allies on the matter.
Ali Safaei, chief of Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization, rejected the "European accusations," calling them "baseless," according to the state-run IRNA news agency.
"It is regrettable that some delegations, including the U.S., have once again disseminated false and misleading information to advance their political agendas," Safaei said.
The IRISL headlined the list of the newly sanctioned entities.
"IRISL is Iran's national maritime carrier, and for years its ships have been involved in shipping drones on behalf of the EU-listed Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy," the EU said.
IRISL director Mohammad Reza Khiabani is also targeted in the sanctions.
The measures include "access to facilities of the ports and locks, such as Amirabad and Anzali, and the provision of any services to vessels," it said, adding that exceptions will be made for vessels in need of assistance for safety for humanitarian purposes.
The EU also listed three Russian shipping companies -- MG Flot, VTS Broker, and Arapax -- whose vessels are involved in transporting Iranian-made weapons and ammunition, including UAV components, across the Caspian Sea to resupply Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
The November 18 announcement is a continuing of a wide-ranging strategy by the West of targeting Iranian entities and individuals over rights abuses, aid to extremist allies and proxies in the region, and weapons transfer.
EU foreign ministers on October 14 approved new sanctions against seven individuals and seven entities linked to Iran after Kyiv's Western allies accused Tehran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia to aid in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Those sanctions, first reported in an exclusive by Radio Farda, targeted companies and individuals accused of being involved in the transfer of the weapons to Russia, including the country's flagship carrier Iran Air, as well as airlines Saha Airlines and Mahan Air.
Those targeted are subject to an asset freeze and travel ban to the European Union. Additionally, the provision of funds or economic resources, directly or indirectly, with those listed is prohibited.
Iran Air has direct flights to several cities in Europe, including Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Paris, and Milan.
Overall, the EU said sanctions have been imposed on 227 individuals and 42 entities in Iran in response to "human rights abuses, nuclear proliferation activities, and military support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."
- By RFE/RL
Iranian Foreign Minister Says There's A 'Limited' Chance For Nuclear Talks With West
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on November 16 that there remains a "limited opportunity" for nuclear negotiations with the West, according to Iranian state media.
Relations between Tehran and the United States have been especially tense since then-President Donald Trump withdrew unilaterally from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and global powers and reimposed tough U.S. sanctions on Iran.
"There is still an opportunity for diplomacy, although this opportunity is not much. It is a limited opportunity," Araqchi was quoted as telling state television.
Western concerns at Iranian actions have soared amid the yearlong war in the Gaza Strip after U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas carried out a brutal attack in Israel in October 2023, with Iranian allies including Huthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon attacking Israel in support of Hamas.
With Trump poised to return to the White House in January following his election victory earlier this month, reports circulated of possible informal contacts, including claims that Trump ally Elon Musk met last week in New York with Iran's envoy to the United Nations.
After days of silence, Tehran on November 16 "categorically denied" that any such meeting took place.
This week, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as the return of Trump could mean the window for diplomacy is closing.
The 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had given Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
After Washington's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran expanded its nuclear program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
U.S. President Joe Biden entered the White House in 2017 pledging to try to revive the deal but made no breakthroughs.
Trump's announced pick for secretary of state, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is generally regarded as an advocate of tough action to counter Iranian influence through a return to a "maximum pressure" policy.
With additional reporting by AFP
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- RFE/RL
Iran 'Categorically Denies' Its UN Envoy Met With Trump Ally Musk
Tehran has "categorically denied" U.S. reports suggesting that billionaire Trump ally and adviser Elon Musk met with Iranian Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeed Iravani in New York last week, contradicting reporting by The New York Times and AP asserting that Tehran sought the meeting in an apparent effort to ease tensions with President-elect Donald Trump. Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying those are "false reports." In his first term, Trump withdrew from a major nuclear accord with Tehran and global powers and reimposed tough sanctions that walloped Iran's currency and economy. Trump has pledged close if informal cooperation with Musk, who has boasted that he has "top-secret clearance" and said he looks forward to a role as "first buddy" to the next U.S. president. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By AP
Lebanon's PM Asks Iran To Help Secure Cease-Fire Between Israel, Hezbollah
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, on November 15 asked Iran to help secure a cease-fire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and whose military wing is blacklisted by the European Union.
He also appeared to urge Iran to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.
As a top adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei visited Lebanon for talks, Lebanese officials said an American proposal for a cease-fire deal had been passed on to Hezbollah, aiming to end 13 months of exchanges of fire between Israel and the group.
Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas’s surprise attack into Israel on October 7, 2023, ignited the war in Gaza.
- By Reuters
Iran Backs Lebanon In Cease-Fire Talks, Seeks End To 'Problems'
Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in talks to secure a cease-fire with Israel, a senior Iranian official said on November 15, signaling Tehran wants to see an end to a conflict that has dealt heavy blows to its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and whose military wing is blacklisted by the European Union. Israel launched air strikes in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, flattening buildings for a fourth consecutive day. Israel has stepped up its bombardment of the area this week, an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in U.S.-led diplomacy toward a cease-fire. Senior Iranian official Ali Larijani, asked whether he had come to Beirut to undermine the U.S. truce plan, said: "We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems."
- By RFE/RL
IAEA Chief Visits Iran's Underground Nuclear Enrichment Sites
Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has visited Iran’s key underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, Iranian state media reported on November 15, without offering details. Iran has restricted inspection of its nuclear sites and barred several IAEA inspectors from visiting its enrichment facilities. Grossi is in Iran to push for diplomacy, warning that the “space for negotiation…is getting smaller” over Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Tehran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. The visit comes ahead of an upcoming meeting of the IAEA's Board of Governors, where some nations are pushing for action against the Islamic republic.
- By Kian Sharifi
With Trump 2.0 Looming, Saudi Arabia Pursues 'Cautious Detente' With Longtime Rival Iran
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been bitter rivals for decades, vying to lead competing branches of Islam and standing on opposing sides of conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
But Tehran and Riyadh have taken major steps to de-escalate tensions and boost cooperation, a move that appeared unthinkable until recently.
The rapprochement has coincided with growing fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
The detente process has intensified since Donald Trump's decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month. The president-elect has pledged to bring peace to the region.
"I don't view this as a warming of relations but rather as a cautious detente," said Talal Mohammad, associate fellow at the Britain-based Royal United Services Institute.
Reassuring Iran
The first signs of a thaw came in March 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations after more than seven years following a surprise Chinese-brokered agreement.
But it was Israel's invasion of Gaza in October 2023 -- soon after the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel -- that gave real impetus to Iran-Saudi rapprochement efforts.
Since the war erupted, Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks for the first time. The tit-for-tat assaults have brought the region to the brink of a full-blown conflict.
Saudi Arabia is "concerned that these escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to a broader regional conflict that may impact their interests," said Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Azizi adds that Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shi'a-dominated Iran are still "far from friends," despite the recent rapprochement, and they remain rivals vying for influence.
Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has stopped conducting air strikes in neighboring Yemen against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels. Riyadh has also made attempts to negotiate an end to the 10-year conflict pitting the Huthis against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
The Huthis have also ceased cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia. In 2019, the rebels managed to shut down half of the kingdom's oil production.
The Trump Factor
Trump's victory in the November 5 presidential election has injected more urgency to the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, experts say.
Saudi Arabia's top general, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, made a rare trip to Iran on November 10 to meet Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri in what Iranian media dubbed "defense diplomacy."
The following day, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman accused Israel of committing "collective genocide" against Palestinians in Gaza and explicitly condemned Israel's attack last month on Iranian military sites.
Azizi says there are fears in the region that Trump's electoral victory will embolden Israel to intensify its attacks on Iran and Tehran's interests.
During Trump's first term in office from 2017 to 2021, his administration pursued a campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran that included imposing crippling sanctions against Tehran.
At the same time, Trump struck a close relationship with Riyadh. He helped facilitate normalization between several Arab states and Israel under the so-called Abraham Accords.
Before Israel launched its devastating war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia was reportedly on the verge of a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel.
Experts say that the Huthis' attacks in 2019 on Saudi oil facilities convinced Riyadh that Washington will not come to its aid if it is attacked.
"Given Trump's tendency toward unpredictable shifts in policy, Saudi Arabia may seek to play an influential role by encouraging Trump to adopt a balanced approach that ensures regional stability without triggering escalation with Iran," Mohammad said.
"By subtly guiding U.S. policy toward calibrated sanctions rather than aggressive pressure, Saudi Arabia could help maintain regional security while avoiding the risks of open confrontation," he added.
Israeli Normalization
Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been indefinitely postponed. Saudi officials have recently said that a deal was off until the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Mohammad says Riyadh has significant strategic incentives to normalize relations with Israel, including security and economic cooperation as well as access to U.S. nuclear and defense technology.
But analysts say Saudi Arabia will only resume talks when the Gaza war is over, given the current public sentiment in the Muslim world toward Israel.
"Normalizing relations without achieving tangible rights for Palestinians could weaken Saudi Arabia's normative influence within the Islamic world -- a position they are keen to maintain," Azizi argued.
The Saudis will also have to take into account Iran, which staunchly opposes Saudi normalization with Israel.
"Riyadh may consult with Tehran and seek assurances that normalization with Israel would not heighten hostilities or undermine the balance achieved through recent diplomatic outreach to Iran," Mohammad said.
UN Nuclear Chief Warns Iran That Window On Talks May Be Closing
Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as the return of Donald Trump to the White House may mean the window for diplomacy is closing.
Speaking to journalists in the Iranian capital on November 14 after a meeting with Iran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, Grossi said pressure was building for movement toward a solution with Iran-backed proxies at war with Israel and Trump, known for his hard-line stance against Tehran, taking over the U.S. presidency in January.
"We know that it is indispensable to get, at this point of time, to get some concrete, tangible, and visible results that will indicate that this joint work is improving (the) situation, is bringing clarification to things, and in a general sense it is moving us away from conflict and ultimately war," Grossi said.
“The fact that international tensions and regional tensions do exist...shows that the space for negotiation and diplomacy is not getting bigger, it is getting smaller," he added.
Grossi's visit takes place about two months ahead of the inauguration of Trump, who during his first term in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from a landmark 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers and reimposed biting sanctions on the Islamic republic.
The 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had given Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Grossi also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran on November 14.
Araqchi, Iran's chief negotiator during the negotiations to reach the JCPOA deal, which barred Tehran from enriching uranium above the level of 3.65 percent, said on X that the talks with Grossi were "important and straightforward."
He vowed to continue Iran's cooperation with the IAEA on nuclear nonproliferation "with courage and good will" and reiterated Tehran's longstanding assertion that its nuclear program was "peaceful."
Araqchi added, however, that Iran would not negotiate "under pressure."
After Washington's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran expanded its nuclear program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
The IAEA and the international community have voiced alarm at reports that Tehran has substantially increased its stocks of uranium enriched to 60 percent -- considerably closer to the 90 percent level needed for a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear expert Eric Brewer told RFE/RL that the IAEA's lack of access to Iran's nuclear sites heightens the risk of it producing more enriched uranium.
"I suspect that to get Iran to provide some information on that front is at the top of Director-General Grossi's list," Brewer said.
He added that while the trip had been scheduled since before the U.S. election, Trump's re-election "will hang over the conversations."
The IAEA chief is expected to hold talks with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian later in the day.
- By Todd Prince and
- Tony Wesolowsky
How Does Marco Rubio, Trump's Pick For Secretary Of State, See The World?
WASHINGTON -- President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Senator Marco Rubio to be his top diplomat as the incoming administration prepares to navigate an increasingly perilous world, with wars raging in Europe and the Middle East and competition heating up with China in the Asia-Pacific.
In choosing Rubio -- a senator known for taking a tough line on many foreign policy issues -- the president-elect is seeking someone who largely shares his views on the most pressing international topics, says Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"Rubio is someone who has ideological and political alignment with Trump on several key national-security issues like great-power competition, countering China, countering the Islamic [Republic of] Iran, and reinstating the maximum-pressure campaign," Taleblu told RFE/RL.
In a wide-ranging interview last week with media before being tapped as secretary of state, Rubio said the decades-long period of unchallenged U.S. global dominance following the collapse of the Soviet Union had ended, replaced by a new Cold War-like era. He warned that the United States can't stretch itself too thin with global commitments, saying Washington must be "pragmatic" in its pursuits abroad.
"We're the most powerful [country], but we too have limited resources…so we have to invest both our time and our money on things that serve our core national interest," Rubio said in a November 7 interview with EWTN, a U.S.-based cable network.
Rubio, a Cuban-American, played an influential role in shaping Trump's policy on Venezuela during the latter's first term as president from 2017 to 2021. The New York Times described Rubio at the time as Trump's "virtual secretary of state for Latin America."
The three-time Florida senator, who challenged Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, comes to the job with ample foreign policy experience, having served on both the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee.
If ultimately confirmed by the Senate, Rubio, 53, would be the first Latino to serve as secretary of state.
And while Latin America will certainly be an important focus for Rubio, it will take a back seat to more pressing U.S. foreign policy concerns, namely China's global rise, Iran's threat to the Middle East, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Priority No. 1: China
When it comes to demands on U.S. military, political, and financial resources, Rubio wants the focus to be on China.
"I think the future of the 21st century is going to largely be defined by what happens in the Indo-Pacific. And I think China would love for us to be bogged down in Europe in a conflict and not focused on what's happening in the Indo-Pacific," Rubio said on November 7.
Rubio, who served as a co-chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China, has consistently advocated taking a hard line on China.
He led efforts to arm Taiwan, the self-governing democracy claimed by Beijing. He called for direct shipments of U.S. munitions and advanced military technologies in hopes of deterring China from attacking the island.
Rubio has also been vocal about Beijing's human rights record, pushed for a U.S. industrial policy to better compete with China, and backed tariffs on Chinese goods.
He sought to ban imports of Chinese goods made with forced labor by Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in western China and prevent China from circumventing Trump-era tariffs by relocating production to Mexico.
NATO And Ukraine
Rubio has repeatedly supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in its defensive war against Russia and described Ukrainians as "incredibly brave and strong."
In February 2022, immediately following Russia's full-scale invasion, he co-sponsored the NYET Act in the Senate, which aimed to "bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities" and impose sanctions on Russia.
However, Rubio has also said Russia's war against Ukraine has reached a "stalemate" and "needs to be brought to a conclusion."
He was among a minority of senators who, earlier this year, opposed a foreign-assistance bill that included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. The bill eventually passed in April, bringing total U.S. aid to Ukraine since February 2022 to almost $175 billion -- about as much given by all of Europe combined.
Rubio has highlighted that imbalance, emphasizing that Washington should push Europe to take a larger role in handling its own security issues in order to allow the United States to prioritize challenging China in the Indo-Pacific.
In last week's interview with EWTN, Rubio said it was "unrealistic" to expect the United States to approve tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine every 10 months. He said European members of NATO need to step up their contributions to the alliance.
"Every day in our own country, [we are] grappling with [the question of] how do we provide assistance to Americans, even as we have these defense requirements that we're spending a lot of money on, and these [European NATO] countries are not making that choice," he said.
While Rubio sees Russia as a threat to U.S. security and backs Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, he said Kyiv will have to negotiate an end to the war. Rubio said Russia has just too many resources at its disposal, including weapons and men, to allow it to continue the fighting despite suffering extraordinary losses.
Iran: 'No Appeasement'
In the Middle East, Rubio has long taken a tough stand on Iran, describing its theocratic government as a "terrorist regime" for financing groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, both designated terrorist organizations by the United States.
As a senator, he was a fierce critic of U.S. President Barack Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.
Critics of the deal argued it empowered Iran, offering too much relief from sanctions without guarantees it wouldn't someday produce a nuclear bomb. In 2018, Trump, who was then president, pulled the United States out of the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
More recently, Rubio co-authored three bills punishing Iran that were signed into law this year. The bills authorize placing sanctions on Iranian oil exports and top Iranian leaders for human rights abuses, as well as foreign entities and governments supporting Hamas. An Iranian client, Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, triggering a regional war that threatens to engulf more states.
Rubio in September criticized the Biden administration for dragging its feet on enforcing the Iranian oil sanctions, which are aimed at crippling the government's finances. It has also failed to move forward on the human rights sanctions.
Depending on what the incoming administration is faced with in Iran when it takes office, analyst Taleblu says -- noting the volatile situation in the Middle East -- he would expect a Rubio-led State Department to make good on enforcement of the sanction bills.
A vocal supporter of Israel, Rubio has backed the country's right to defend itself from Iranian threats. Following Tehran's missile strikes on Israel on October 1, Rubio publicly backed an asymmetrical response.
Afghanistan
Rubio has also taken a hard line on the Taliban, arguing the militant Islamist group should be described as a "terrorist organization" by Washington. In March, the Florida senator introduced a bill in the Senate calling for an end to an end to U.S. aid to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, arguing that some of that money could end up with "terrorist groups."
In remarks to the Senate, Rubio said, "A Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a direct threat to U.S. national-security interests and to our allies in the Middle East and Central Asia."
Reid Standish contributed to this report
Journalist Commits Suicide In Protest Over Arrests In Iran
Kianoosh Sanjari, a journalist and political activist, has committed suicide to protest numerous arrests and interrogations of himself and other political activists. A relative of Sanjari confirmed the news in an interview with RFE/RL on November 13. Friends of Sanjari also confirmed his death in posts on X. Since returning to Tehran in 2015 to care for his elderly mother, Sanjari was repeatedly summoned and arrested by the security and intelligence agencies of the Islamic republic. Hours before committing suicide, Sanjari announced his decision to end his life on X. After an ultimatum demanding the Iranian government release four activists and journalists by a specified time was not met, Sanjari tweeted again: "My life will end after this tweet but let's not forget that we die for the love of life, not death. I wish that one day Iranians will wake up and overcome slavery." To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By RFE/RL
FBI Arrests Alleged Leaker Of U.S. Intelligence Related To Israel's Attack Plans Against Iran
The U.S. Justice Department has charged a man for allegedly leaking highly classified U.S. intelligence about Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran, according to U.S. media reports on November 13. The reports said that Asif W. Rahman was indicted earlier this month for willfully transmitting national defense information. He was arrested on November 12 in Cambodia by the FBI and was to appear in court in Guam. Court documents indicate that he was employed by the U.S. government. According to a person familiar with his employment, he was employed by the CIA. This employment gave him a top-secret security clearance and allowed him to access sensitive information. The New York Times, which first reported the story, said that Rahman was indicted on a charge related to the posting of the intelligence on Telegram in mid-October. The documents posted included Israeli plans for moving munitions and Israeli Air Force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says It's Confident Oil Exports Will Continue Despite Trump Election
Iran says it has measures in place to ensure it will continue producing and exporting oil even if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran once he takes office in January.
During his first term in office in 2017-21, Trump withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and reimposed sanctions as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran.
As a result, Iran’s oil production dropped from 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.1 million bpd, while its exports plummeted to between 200,000 and 500,000 bpd from 2.5 million bpd.
But both production and exports have picked up in recent years despite U.S. sanctions, with Iran’s oil output reaching around 3.2m bpd. Exports, meanwhile, have hit a multiyear high of 1.7 million bpd.
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told reporters on November 13 that Iran has mechanisms in place “to continue selling our oil” regardless of who is in power in the United States.
“We have tried-and-tested methods and don’t have serious concerns about [selling oil],” he said, according to Iranian state-aligned media.
Without offering details, the oil minister said, “necessary measures have been taken by our colleagues in the oil sector in preparation for what is to come and there is no reason to worry.”
Trump is expected to launch a new-look "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic republic once he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Iran boosted its oil sales by circumventing sanctions through a variety of means, exporting mostly to China, which does not recognize U.S. measures against Iran.
The tactic involves the ship-to-ship transfer of oil, middlemen, clandestine money transfers, and the rebranding of the oil to mask its Iranian origin.
Iranian crude makes up about 13 percent of oil imports by China, the world's biggest purchaser of the commodity. Beijing says the purchases conform to international law.
Netanyahu Tells Iranians Another Attack On Israel Will 'Cripple' Their Economy
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says another attack on Israel would paralyze the Islamic republic's economy and cost billions of dollars that could be spent to the benefit of ordinary Iranians. In his second video addressed directly to Iranians in the last two months, which was released in English with Farsi subtitles on November 12, Netanyahu said that Iran's October 1 missile attack cost it $2.3 billion dollars, "valuable money that the Islamic republic wasted" as the "damage of that attack on Israel was insignificant." He added that the Iranian government is "obsessed" with the destruction of Israel but its theocracy fears its own people more than Israel. Neither the people of Israel nor ordinary Iranians want war, he said. Some analysts said the video could be a warning that if Iran were to attack again, Israel would hit back hard in an attempt to cause major damage to Iran's economy. There was no immediate reaction to the video from Iran. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Targeted Activist Calls Failure Of Iranian Assassination Plot 'Pleasing'
Iranian-American human rights activist Masih Alinejad says she derives joy from the failure of alleged plots by the Islamic republic to kidnap and assassinate her.
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill Alinejad and President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election. Iran has rejected the allegation.
"When the Islamic republic is defeated, disgraced, and embarrassed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], it has no choice but to deny," Alinejad, 48, said in comments to RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, or head scarf, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021. In 2022 a man was also arrested with a rifle outside her home.
“The Islamic republic has been disgraced three times…. The humiliation of [Iranian authorities] is truly pleasing,” she said.
The FBI informed Alinejad of the suspected Iranian plot to kill her shortly before the court documents were unsealed, she said, recalling that she was "shocked" to learn about the details.
Two men arrested by the FBI were planning to target Alinejad at Fairfield University in Connecticut, where she was scheduled to appear.
The Justice Department alleges the two men spent months surveilling Alinejad and earlier this year traveled to the university campus and took photos of the premises.
"It is shocking how brazenly the Islamic republic can savagely plan to assassinate someone in another country," Alinejad said.
Iran has long been accused of targeting dissidents abroad, either to kidnap them or kill them.
Rights groups say exiled opposition activist Ruhollah Zam was abducted in 2019 before being executed in Iran a year later.
In 2020, Tehran said it had arrested Iranian-German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd and later sentenced him to death. Sharmahd's family insists he was kidnapped while through the United Arab Emirates. Iranian authorities claim Sharmahd died in prison last month before being executed.
Alinejad, who is visiting Germany and recently met with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said her message to Germany, the United States, and all Western countries is to "protect your borders and democracy instead of protecting me so that the Islamic republic's terrorists can't enter and plot assassinations on Western soil."
She said symbolic gestures by the West in support of Iranian protesters and dissidents "is not enough" to dissuade Iranian authorities from targeting critics abroad. Instead, she argued, severing diplomatic ties and "extensive support" for protesters inside Iran would be more effective.
Written based on an interview by Nasrin Afshar of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Saudi Armed Forces General Travels to Iran In Rare High-Level Visit
The general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia's armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Baqeri, in Tehran during a rare visit on November 10.
Iran's official IRNA news agency said they discussed the development of defense diplomacy and bilateral cooperation without offering any details.
Iranian media said Baqeri had discussed regional developments and defense cooperation with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman al-Saud last year.
Ruwaili is only the second high-profile Saudi official to travel to Tehran since Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years following Chinese-brokered talks in March 2023. Previously, Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June 2023.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia severed ties with Shi'a-dominated Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic compounds in Tehran and Mashhad were attacked by protesters over Riyadh's execution of Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
The trip comes days after the election of Donald Trump, whose second term as U.S. president begins in January. He has pledged to bring peace to the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the timing of the trip was significant because it comes as various countries are preparing for a second Trump presidency.
He said the Saudis' decision to send their top military official to Tehran "is a signal that they are committed" to the detente process that started last year and that "they don't want Trump's election to jeopardize the recently improving relations with Iran."
Separately, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on the phone and discussed expanding bilateral relations, according to Pezeshkian's office.
Trump had good relations with Persian Gulf Arab states in his first tenure in office and worked on normalizing relations between Arab states and Iran's archfoe, Israel.
Saudi Arabia has not normalized relations with Israel but Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is said to have discussed the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia since 2021.
In another sign of warming relations, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it held military drills with Iran in the Sea of Oman.
- By Reuters
UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief To Visit Iran On November 13
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi will visit Iran on November 13 and start consultations with Iranian officials the following day, state media reported on November 10. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed nuclear program and that he expected to work cooperatively with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Long-standing issues between Iran, the IAEA, and Western powers include Tehran barring several uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams in the country and its failure for years to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Iran has also stepped up nuclear activity since 2019, after then-President Trump abandoned a 2015 deal Iran reached with world powers under which it curbed enrichment -- seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear weapons capability -- and restored tough U.S. sanctions on the Islamic republic.
- By Reuters
Iranian Foreign Minister Denies Plot To Kill Trump
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi denied U.S. charges that Tehran was linked to an alleged plot to kill Donald Trump and called on November 9 for confidence-building between the two hostile countries. "A new scenario is fabricated....As a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy," Araqchi said in a post on X. He was referring to an alleged plot Washington said was ordered by Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to assassinate Trump, who won the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and takes office in January.
- By AFP
Iran Urges Trump To Change 'Maximum Pressure' Policy
Iran signaled an openness toward Donald Trump on November 9, calling on the U.S. president-elect to adopt new policies toward it after Washington accused Tehran of involvement in a plot to kill him. Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Trump to reassess the policy of "maximum pressure" he employed against the Islamic republic during his first term. "Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past," Zarif told reporters. His remarks came after the United States accused Iran of conspiring to assassinate Trump. The Foreign Ministry on November 9 described the American accusations as "totally unfounded."
After Iranian Student Jailed For Stripping, London Activist Shows Solidarity In Her Underwear (Video)
A university student in Tehran was detained and sent to a psychiatric ward after stripping down to her underwear in public. In a demonstration of support, activist Rokhsareh Mohammad Khani took similar action in London, filming herself in minimal clothing in a central square. Khani said she wanted to highlight the extreme nature of Iran's dress code and the penalties it imposes on women.
- By RFE/RL
Court Documents Allege Iranian-Backed Plot To Assassinate Trump, Dissidents
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.
A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) instructed a contact to develop a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, the Justice Department said in a news release.
Three men, including an Iranian national, were charged in the criminal complaint in connection with their alleged involvement in a separate plot to murder a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin.
Two of the three men -- Carlisle Rivera, 49, and Jonathon Loadholt, 36, both of New York City -- made an initial appearance in court on November 7 and were ordered detained pending trial, the department said.
The third man, identified as Farjad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
"The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders, and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran," FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the news release.
The IRGC "has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won't be tolerated," he added.
Shakeri allegedly recruited Rivera and Loadhold to follow and kill a prominent Iranian-American. The target was not named in the news release or in court documents but appears to be dissident journalist Masih Alinejad.
Alinejad said on X that she was shocked to have learned of the plot from the FBI.
"I also learned that the person assigned to assassinate @realDonaldTrump was also assigned to kill me on U.S. soil," she said on X, calling on Trump to be tough on terrorism. "The Islamic Republic understands only one language: the language of pressure," she said.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021, and in 2022 a man was arrested with a rifle outside her home.
The Justice Department said Shakeri was an IRGC "asset" who immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for robbery.
According to the criminal complaint, Shakeri allegedly disclosed the plot to assassinate Trump in telephone conversations with FBI agents in recent months.
Shakeri spoke with FBI agents because he was hoping to obtain a sentence reduction for a person who is imprisoned in the United States, the court document said.
Shakeri told the FBI he was approached by an IRGC official about organizing the assassination of Trump. He planned to use a network of criminal associates he met in prison, including Loadholt and Rivera, to supply the IRGC with operatives to conduct surveillance and assassinations of IRGC targets, the Justice Department said.
Shakeri promised to pay $100,000 in the murder-for-hire plot described in the document in which Alinejad appears to be the target.
The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations of U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, according to the press release.
"In particular, Shakeri has informed law enforcement that he was tasked on October 7, 2024, with providing a plan to kill President-elect Donald J. Trump," the Justice Department said.
Shakeri was unable to draft a plan within the time span requested by the IRGC official, and the official then told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him afterward, the criminal complaint said.
The United States has repeatedly accused Iran of seeking to assassinate U.S. officials in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who died in a U.S. military drone strike in Iraq in 2020.
In his first term as president, Trump withdrew the United States from an international nuclear agreement negotiated between Iran and nuclear powers, imposed new sanctions on the country, and classified the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Shakeri, Rivera, and Loadholt have all been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; and money-laundering conspiracy, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Shakeri faces additional charges related to terrorism.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
The Azadi Briefing: What Will Trump's Election Victory Mean For Afghanistan?
Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.
In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”
During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.
During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.
The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.
“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”
Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.
“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.
What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.
But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.
What To Keep An Eye On
An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.
The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.
“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”
Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.
In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.
Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.
India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.
The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
- By Kian Sharifi
Will Trump's Election Trigger An Iran Policy Of 'Maximum Pressure 2.0'?
Before the U.S. presidential election, Iran dismissed the vote as irrelevant.
But former President Donald Trump’s stunning victory on November 5 could have major ramifications for Tehran, experts say.
During his first stint in power, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs and imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran.
Iran will “have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security…in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a [second] Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
'Maximum Pressure 2.0'
From 2017-2021, the Trump administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump’s return to the White House could see a policy of “maximum pressure 2.0,” said Sabet, adding that the aim could be “containment and regime weakening.”
Sabet said Trump could try to devise “a kind of policy in perpetuity” on Iran that would be difficult to undo by future U.S. administrations.
In a sign of what is to come, Brian Hook, who oversaw the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, is expected to lead the president-elect’s transition team at the State Department. U.S. media reported that Hook could be considered for the role of secretary of state.
During the campaign, Trump sent mixed messages on Iran. He threatened to blow the country to “smithereens” but also said he was open to talks with Tehran. Trump also said he wants Iran to be “successful,” although he added that Tehran “can't have a nuclear weapon.”
Sabet said Iran has grown more adept at evading U.S. sanctions since Trump’s first term and its nuclear program has become more advanced following the abrogation of the nuclear deal.
But experts say Iran will still feel the bite of tougher U.S. policies. The Iranian economy is in free fall, while the clerical establishment has faced growing domestic unrest and threats from archenemy Israel.
The Israeli Factor
Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks in recent months that have raised fears of an all-out regional war.
The tit-for-tat attacks have come as Israel fights a multifront war against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.
Trump has a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect.
During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of U.S. policy. He also moved the U.S. embassy to the contested city.
Sabet said Iran’s “security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S.”
The View From Iran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump's election victory “makes no difference” to Tehran, which has “prioritized developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.”
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said Iran had “bitter experiences with various U.S. governments' past policies and approaches.” But he added that Trump’s return to the White House was a chance “to review previous wrong policies.”
Some conservative Iranian lawmakers and media outlets have done little to hide their disdain for Trump.
Hard-line lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X on November 6 before taking down his post. The conservative Hamshahri newspaper decried “the return of the murderer,” alluding to Trump’s role in Soleimani’s assassination.
Others have urged Iranian decision-makers to consider negotiating with Trump, especially as the reformist Pezeshkian pledged to engage the West when he took office in July.
Tehran-based political analyst Hamid Asefi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical establishment hope that Trump will help topple the Islamic republic. But he said that was “wishful thinking” because his Iran policy has never been about regime change.
“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran can easily strike a deal with Trump, as he is a dealmaker,” he added.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story
Israel Sends Planes To Evacuate Soccer Fans After 'Willful Attack' In Amsterdam
Israel sent several chartered planes to Amsterdam to bring back Israeli soccer fans after they were attacked following a match on November 7 by what Mayor Femke Halsema described as "anti-Semitic hit-and-run squads."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the incidents "anti-Semitic attacks" as his office announced that the Israeli airlines El Al and Israir have set up special flights for free on November 8 and 9 to do the job.
El Al said it was sending six planes to bring the fans home, and Israeli airport authorities said later on November 8 that the first plane had landed.
Amsterdam police said that 62 people were detained following the violence, with 10 in custody on November 8 in connection with the clashes -- which left five people hospitalized -- in the center of Amsterdam between young locals and Israeli supporters who had come to watch Maccabi Tel Aviv's game against Ajax Amsterdam in the Europa League competition.
"This is a very dark moment for the city, for which I am deeply ashamed," Halsema told a news conference. "Anti-Semitic criminals attacked and assaulted visitors to our city, in hit-and-run actions," she said.
Dutch authorities said there was no concrete threat to Israeli soccer fans before the game and that it was not clear how or precisely when the violence began.
Peter Holla, the city's acting police chief, told a news conference that the Israeli fans were "willfully attacked."
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned "anti-Semitic" violence against Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam, calling the attacks "despicable" throwbacks to dark moments in history.
"The anti-Semitic attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam are despicable and echo dark moments in history when Jews were persecuted," Biden said on X.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and other world leader joined Biden in condemning the violence.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks as "vile" and said she discussed them with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.
"Outraged by last night's vile attacks targeting Israeli citizens in Amsterdam," von der Leyen said in a post on X. "I strongly condemn these unacceptable acts. Antisemitism has absolutely no place in Europe. And we are determined to fight all forms of hatred."
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar flew to Amsterdam for impromptu meetings with the Dutch government and far-right leader Geert Wilders, and Amsterdam banned demonstrations for three days.
Police said fans had left the stadium on November 7 without incident after the game was won 5-0 by Ajax, but various clashes in the city center were reported during the night.
Video posted online also purported to show Israeli fans chanting anti-Arab slogans in the streets ahead of the game.
Maccabi fans are known to have used similar chants in Israel at recent matches there.
Earlier, a pro-Palestinian protest against Maccabi's visit scheduled to take place near the stadium was banned by Dutch authorities for security reasons amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Anti-Israeli protests have been held in various parts of the world, including in Western Europe amid Israel's war in the Gaza Strip against Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the EU, following the group's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people.
The conflict has spilled outside of Gaza and into southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Schoof said he was "horrified" by the incidents. which he called "completely unacceptable." He said he told Netanyahu that those who are guilty would be "identified and prosecuted."
Netanyahu told Schoof that he "views the premeditated anti-Semitic attack against Israeli citizens with the utmost seriousness and requested increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands," the Israeli prime minister's office said.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he had talked to Dutch King Willem-Alexander on the phone, who had voiced "deep horror and shock over the criminal acts committed."
The Israeli Embassy in the United States said on X that "hundreds" of Maccabi fans were "ambushed and attacked in Amsterdam tonight as they left the stadium following a game against Ajax."
"The mob who targeted these innocent Israelis has proudly shared their violent acts on social media," the embassy said in its message accompanied by a video of violent clashes in the city.
Israel also said it had banned members of its military from traveling to the Netherlands.
Editors' Picks
Top Trending
UEFA To Rule After Kosovar Players Walk Off In Romania Amid Claims Of 'Racist' Chants
2U.S. Reportedly Allows Ukraine To Strike Russia With Long-Range Weapons
3No Smooth Sailing For Climate Activist Greta Thunberg In The Caucasus
4A Blood-Red Stripe: Russian Opposition's Anti-War Rally Shadowed In Advance By Controversy Over Flag
5Russian Forces Reportedly Start All-Out Assault On Key Ukrainian City Of Kupyansk
6Ukraine Live Briefing: 3 Children Among Dead In Sumy, Odesa
7Putin Not Interested In Negotiations, Only In Ending His Own Isolation, Zelenskiy Says
8How Does Marco Rubio, Trump's Pick For Secretary Of State, See The World?
9In Bulgaria, A Secret Russian Consulate Is Unveiled
10Peace Talks Brewing, Russia And Ukraine Jockey For Advantage -- On And Off The Battlefield
RFE/RL has been declared an "undesirable organization" by the Russian government.
If you are in Russia or the Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine and hold a Russian passport or are a stateless person residing permanently in Russia or the Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine, please note that you could face fines or imprisonment for sharing, liking, commenting on, or saving our content, or for contacting us.
To find out more, click here.
