Reviving the Iran nuclear deal remains off the agenda for the Biden administration, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said on August 26, as Tehran called for “new negotiations” to update the agreement before it can be revived.

Iran’s new foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said last week that the agreement “cannot be revived in its current form” due to sunset clauses that have expired and insisted that new talks are needed to resuscitate the agreement.

However, a State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the 2015 nuclear accord is formally known, “is not on the table right now.” The United States unilaterally exited the deal in 2018 under then-U.S. President Donald Trump.

“The United States will ensure one way or another that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and we are prepared to use all elements of national power to ensure that outcome,” the spokesperson said.

Still, Washington views “diplomacy as the best way to achieve a sustainable, effective solution,” the spokesperson said.

During a televised interview, Araqchi conceded that renegotiating the agreement would be challenging.

“This document definitely needs to be reopened and parts of it needs to be changed. That is no easy task because once you reopen a document, putting it back together will be challenging,” he said in a live television interview.

Complicating matters further are the November presidential election in the United States and ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Araqchi said the Ukraine war had “deeply impacted how Europeans view security,” while the Gaza conflict has “completely upended the situation in the region.”

The minister, who was one of the architects of the deal between Iran and six major world powers, said the format of talks since 2021 to revive the agreement can no longer work.

“New negotiations are needed,” Araqchi added.

The deal restricted Iran’s nuclear program and capped uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent. In return, the United States lifted sanctions that had suffocated Iran’s economy and energy sectors.

But Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under its terms. Iran retaliated by gradually scaling back its commitments and is currently enriching uranium at 60 percent.

Araqchi, then a deputy foreign minister, led Iran’s negotiating team when Tehran and Washington started indirect talks in April 2021 to restore the agreement. Negotiations paused when hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi came to power in Iran and a new team of negotiators entered the fray.

But talks were suspended in September 2022 in the wake of nationwide protests that rocked Iran for months. Hundreds were killed in the unrest as the authorities cracked down on demonstrations.

Iran's new president, Masud Pezeshkian, who succeeded Raisi after he died in a helicopter crash earlier this year, has vowed to engage the West.

But the ultimate decision-maker in Iran is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has praised efforts by conservatives to expand the country's nuclear program.

Israel has reportedly launched new strikes at Hizballah, which has been designated at terrorist organization by the United States, just inside Lebanon a day after a heavy exchange of missile and drone attacks between the two foes that Iran claimed showed a shift in the balance of power.

State media reported on August 26 that Israel targeted the border village of Tair Harfa and an area near Sidon in Lebanon a day after Hizballah launched scores of rockets and drones against targets in northern and central Israel in the early hours of August 25. The attack came shortly after Israel carried out what it described as preemptive strikes targeting Hizballah’s rocket launchers.

There were no immediate reports of casualties from Israel's strikes on August 26.

Iran said on August 26 that the exchange of fire, which marked one of the largest clashes to hit the Middle East since war broke out in the Gaza Strip last October, showed Israel has lost not only its ability to anticipate small-scale attacks but also its deterrent power.

“Despite the full backing of its supporters, including the United States, Israel has lost its deterrent power and ability to predict the time and place of even a limited and calibrated attack,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani wrote on X, referring to the large-scale attack on Israel by Iran’s Lebanese ally Hizballah a day earlier.

“The occupying regime has always sought territorial expansion, but now has to defend itself within the occupied territories,” Kanani added. “Fear has been embedded in the homes of the residents of the occupied lands.”

Israeli officials said the preemptive attack prevented the launch of “thousands” of rockets. Hizballah claimed to have launched more than 320 rockets and drones but Israel put the figure at around 150.

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Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah alleged that the group’s operation was calibrated to ensure it did not trigger a full-scale conflict.

Addressing Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's preemptive operation was "another step toward changing the situation in the north and returning our residents safely to their homes."

Hizballah said its operation was “phase one” of its retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, widely believe to be Hizballah’s second-most powerful person. Shukr was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut on July 30.

Hours after Shukr’s assassination, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas was killed in Tehran. Iran vowed to avenge Ismail Haniyeh and accused Israel of killing him. Israel has neither denied nor claimed responsibility.

SEE ALSO:

Israel And Hizballah Edge Closer To Conflict Neither Side Desires

In his speech, Nasrallah said one reason why Hizballah took nearly a month to hit Israel was because it was discussing with Iran and other allies about whether to carry out a coordinated attack on Israel or attack separately.

Pressure has been growing on Iran to deliver on its promised attack against Israel to avenge Haniyeh.

During a phone call on August 25 with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araqchi insisted that a “measured and well-calculated” response will come.

“We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it -- unlike Israel,” Araqchi told his Italian counterpart.

Israel and its Iran-backed Lebanese foe Hizballah insist they do not seek a full-scale conflict, but they continue to take steps toward war.

It took the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hizballah nearly a month to deliver on its promised attack against Israel for the killing of its most senior commander, Fuad Shukr.

But Israel saw the attack coming, taking what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described as preemptive strikes against Hizballah's rocket launchers on August 25, apparently reducing the scale of the Iran-backed group's offensive.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said that while neither side wants an all-out war, each party is "very determined to impose its own equation on the other."

They continue to take risks by attacking each other, but mistakes and miscalculations could spark the very conflict they want to avoid, Zimmt warned.

SEE ALSO:

Why Is Iran Delaying Its Vowed Attack On Israel?

"This ongoing, so-called limited conflict between Israel and Hizballah is very difficult to manage," he added.

The IDF says around 100 fighter jets took part in its preemptive operation, while Hizballah claims it launched more than 300 rockets and drones against Israel. If the numbers are true, this marks the biggest exchange of fire between Israel and Hizballah since the 2006 war, which ended in a stalemate.

Without Israel's preemptive strikes, the scale of Hizballah's attack would have been devastating, Zimmt said. That would have prompted a "severe" Israeli response, he added.

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Despite the heavy exchange of fire, the attacks do not -- at least on the surface -- seem to have affected negotiations to establish a cease-fire in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the European Union and the United States.

Zimmt said while he is "not optimistic" about the prospects of a cease-fire, such a deal could help de-escalate tensions -- although, even that, he added, is only speculation.

Hizballah Going Solo?

The Middle East has been on edge for weeks, expecting not just an attack on Israel from Hizballah but also from Iran.

Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel after a bombing in uptown Tehran killed Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has not commented on the attack.

Haniyeh was killed hours after Shukr, widely seen as the second-most powerful person in Hizballah, was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut.

SEE ALSO:

Full-Blown War Between Israel And Iran-Backed Hizballah 'Not In The Interests' Of Tehran

Many assessed that an Iranian attack on Israel would come in concert with strikes from Hizballah.

But the Lebanese group, which is more an Iranian partner than a proxy, appears to have grown tired of waiting and struck out on its own.

"It is very important to note that Hizballah didn't wait for the Iranians," Zimmt said, arguing that one reason why Hizballah waited so long to launch its retaliatory strike was that it had hoped to attack Israel alongside Iran.

However, the Lebanese group likely concluded that a direct Iranian strike was not coming, at least for now.

"This might have some impact -- perhaps not immediately -- on Hizballah's relationship with Iran," Zimmt said.

Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork to boost its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is looking to China for help.

In just two months, Baku's ties with Beijing have quickly moved forward as the oil-rich country has inched closer politically and economically through a series of agreements that could boost China's presence in the region and open the door to newfound Chinese investment into Azerbaijan.

The series of recent moves began on July 3 when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana and declared they had upgraded bilateral ties through a new strategic partnership that calls for them to work closer together economically, militarily, and politically.

A few weeks later, Baku applied to upgrade its status within the SCO from dialogue partner to observer, setting the stage to potentially become a full member.

And then on August 20, Azerbaijan announced it had applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia that also includes Brazil, India, and South Africa as founding members.

Taken together, the collection of moves is part of China's growing momentum in the region as an investor and trade partner since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has left governments and shipping companies looking for alternatives due to sanctions on Russia that have left its vast rail network -- previously the main route between China and Europe for overland trade -- less viable.

For Azerbaijan, which is at a crossroads for trade on the Caspian Sea, this has led to new energy for the so-called Middle Corridor, the alternative trade route that bypasses Russia by cutting through Central Asia and the South Caucasus to connect to the European Union, and seen new investment worth billions of dollars.

"The Middle Corridor is a key issue and Baku needs Beijing's support,” Zaur Shiriyev, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told RFE/RL. "The immediate concern is that the success of the Middle Corridor depends on a steady flow of goods from China to establish a strong China-Europe route in the long term.”

A Series Of New Deals And Beyond

Attracting more Chinese interest and investment in the Middle Corridor is a main priority for Azerbaijan and is at the center of the strategic partnership agreement signed in July.

China pledged in the document to help develop and use the trade route and Baku is hoping that it will lead to more Chinese investment in infrastructure, which would make the route more competitive and strengthen Azerbaijan's role as a central hub in the region.

SEE ALSO:

Special Report: How The Ukraine War Could Revamp Trade In Eurasia

But Baku's "cooperation menu with Beijing is extensive,” says Shiriyev, with Azerbaijan eyeing further deals in green energy, advanced technology, and military purchases.

The Azerbaijani government has also expressed a desire for Chinese companies to set up a regional manufacturing hub for electric vehicles in the country and has been actively calling for more Chinese investment.

Bilateral trade between the two countries is also on the rise, although heavily slanted in Beijing's favor, with China overtaking Turkey as Azerbaijan's second-largest source of imports (behind Russia) with $3.1 billion worth of goods in 2023, a 40 percent rise from the previous year.

"Chinese companies are already participating in the diversification of Azerbaijan's economy, but we expect more,” Hikmet Hajiyev, Aliyev's foreign policy adviser, told the Chinese state broadcaster CGTN during a March interview in Beijing.

Increased trade and investment appear to be motivating the recent moves by Baku as the country looks to diversify away from the hydrocarbon wealth that has underpinned its economy for decades.

Another part of the strategic partnership agreement calls for China's support for Azerbaijan's full membership in the World Trade Organization and the application for BRICS membership could also open new markets. While there is no clear procedure for admitting new members or an application timeline for joining BRICS, it expanded in January to also include Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt -- and has a long list of other countries who have expressed an interest in applying.

"Membership could offer Baku the opportunity to expand access to the large and rapidly growing markets of the BRICS countries, potentially creating new opportunities for bilateral trade agreements and investments in Azerbaijan's economy,” Shiriyev said.

A New Balance Of Power

The appeal of closer ties with Beijing isn't limited to trade and investment, says Vadim Dubnov, a regional expert at RFE/RL's Echo of the Caucasus, who notes that China is also an increasingly important partner for Baku to lean on in the region's fast-changing geopolitical environment.

A decreasing footprint from Western powers combined with Russia being weakened and distracted by its war in Ukraine has given Azerbaijan more room to maneuver in foreign affairs. This has led to Baku deepening ties with Turkey and Iran and inviting China in to play a larger role.

"Aliyev is trying to reposition himself and find a new balance with all the major players in the South Caucasus,” said Dubnov. "Stronger ties with China allow Baku to not sit totally in any one camp.”

But the warming ties between Baku and Beijing are not a one-sided process.

Since Azerbaijan's success in its 2020 war with Armenia, China's interest in the South Caucasus has grown and Beijing hopes that Baku's stronger regional standing will lead to more stability and opportunities for more Chinese investment and influence in the region, such as additional trade routes connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey through Armenia.

Azerbaijan is also eyeing other opportunities to use its geographic position to its advantage.

While the Middle Corridor makes up an East-West trade route that bypasses Russia, the shake up to global trade brought by the war in Ukraine has also created new interest in other alternatives, including those that look to cut out the West.

As the Middle Corridor has grown, Moscow has looked to drum up investment in the International North–South Transport Corridor that flows south from Russia to Azerbaijan and then aims to connect to Iran and India.

China, which has strong trade ties with Central Asia and the EU as well as Russia and Iran, has expressed support for both the Middle Corridor and the North-South route, which Azerbaijan is looking to capitalize on given its central position in both.

"If Baku previously was able to use its energy resources [as leverage] in its relations with the West, international trade corridors are also now tools with strategic importance in Azerbaijan's foreign policy,” Nurlan Aliyev, a lecturer at the University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, told RFE/RL.

RFE/RL Armenian Service correspondent Lusine Musayelyan contributed reporting to this article.

Meta says it has warned U.S. presidential campaigns to be wary after it discovered an Iran-linked hacking attempt using the WhatsApp messaging service. The announcement is the latest from a tech giant of hacking threats ahead of the November election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, after Google and Microsoft earlier uncovered similar attempts attributed to Iran.WhatsApp accounts linked to an Iranian "threat actor" sent messages pretending to be technical support for AOL, Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft, according to a Meta blog post. Accounts involved in what appeared to be "social engineering" were blocked, Meta said.

Germany’s decision to select Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof’s latest movie to represent the country in the 2025 Oscars in the international feature category shows that Iranian independent cinema is making strides, the director has told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Rasoulof’s The Seed Of The Sacred Fig was selected by an independent jury of experts from among 13 submissions, according to German Films, which represents German cinema interests abroad.

In a brief message to Radio Farda on August 22, the Golden Bear-winning director said he was “happy” for various reasons.

“First of all, the voice of Iranian independent cinema appears to be on a new path,” said Rasoulof, who fled Iran earlier this year.

“Secondly, the movie offers a picture close to the reality about the women's protests in Iran,” he added, referring to the ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ protests in 2022.

The protests were sparked by the death in morality-police custody of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish-Iranian woman who was detained for allegedly flaunting the country’s strict dress code for women.

The unrest lasted for months, with rights groups estimating that more than 500 protesters were killed as security forces clamped down on the demonstrations.

Rasoulof said he was also happy because the movie’s submission as Germany’s hope for the Oscars was a recognition of the efforts and hardships endured by the cast and crew of the film in Iran.

“This highlights the efforts of a group that tried to be an honest narrator of the truth despite the restrictions,” he said.

Rasoulof revealed in May that he had fled Iran after being informed that he had been sentenced to eight years in prison and flogging on security-related charges.

An outspoken critic of the Iranian establishment’s crackdown on protests, Rasoulof was convicted of “collusion to act against national security.”

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The cast and crew of The Seed Of The Sacred Fig had been under pressure by the Iranian authorities to pull the movie from the Cannes Film Festival.

Rasoulof attended the festival after leaving Iran, receiving a 12-minute standing ovation after the screening of his film. The movie won multiple awards at Cannes, including the Competition's Special Jury Prize and the Prix Francois Chalais for Best Film.

The film tells the story of an Iranian judge struggling with paranoia. His mistrust intensifies after his gun goes missing amid growing nationwide protests. He suspects his wife and daughters of stealing his weapon and imposes heavy restrictions at home.

Rasoulof won the Golden Bear -- the Berlin Film Festival’s top prize -- in 2020 for his film There Is No Evil, which tells four stories loosely connected to the themes of the death penalty in Iran and personal freedoms under oppression. He was barred by Tehran from travelling to Germany to receive his award.

Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said in a statement on August 23 that its agents had arrested 14 members of Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), which is a branch of the IS militant group based in Afghanistan, the semiofficial ISNA news agency reported. It did not specify when the arrests occurred but said all 14 had entered Iran illegally and “planned to carry out terrorist operations.” Seven suspects were arrested in the southern Fars Province while the rest were apprehended in the northern provinces of Tehran and Alborz, and Khuzestan Province in the southwest. In January, IS-K claimed a deadly twin bombing in southern Iran that killed 95 people.

Iran is striking out left and right in an attempt to interfere with the U.S. presidential election in November with the help of slick-looking websites, hackers, and phishing attacks.

The objective of the sophisticated campaign, U.S. intelligence and cyberthreat experts say, is to fuel distrust in the U.S. democratic system and to exploit and heighten social divisions.

As the November 5 election nears, Iranian hackers have been accused of targeting the e-mail accounts of both the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.

U.S. intelligence assessments and researchers say both political campaigns have been targeted by phishing attacks carried out by a group with suspected ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the armed forces.

And experts say an Iranian network dubbed "Storm-2035" operates multiple inauthentic news sites on the web and social media that use AI-generated content to agitate conservative and liberal dissidence.

"Iran’s main goal in this space is to sow discord and chaos and to undermine the integrity of the United States' electoral system," said Simin Kargar, a senior nonresident fellow at the Washington-based Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab).

"If they can pull this off, even at a very small scale, it would be a testament to Iran’s long-held rhetoric that democracy is a 'flawed Western concept' and even the U.S., which has often accused Iran of rigged elections, is susceptible to election-related controversies," she added in written comments.

At least four "Iran-run covert news sites masquerading as news outlets" operated by Storm-2035 have been identified by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) as "actively engaging U.S. voter groups on opposing ends of the political spectrum with polarizing messaging on issues such as the U.S. presidential candidates, LGBTQ rights, and the Israel-Hamas conflict."

In an August 9 report, the MTAC singled out three of the sites by name-- Even Politics (evenpolitics.com), Nio Thinker (niothinker.com), and Savannah Time (savannahtime.com).

With Trump and Harris in a tight race 11 weeks before the vote, Even Politics was publishing content focused on the ongoing war in Gaza, alleged threats against democracy, and the influence of religious groups. Much of the content on the site appeared to be steered against Trump.

Nio Thinker, which emerged shortly after the beginning of the Gaza war in October, has since shifted its focus from that conflict to the U.S. election. Its content caters to "liberal audiences" with "sarcastic, long-winded articles insulting Trump," according to the MTAC, including one calling him an "opioid-pilled elephant in the MAGA china shop."

Hot-Button Topics

The site also goes after Harris's alleged unwavering support for Israel, the vice-presidential nominees for both parties, and stokes the flames on hot-button topics like corporate influence and immigration.

One article presented as an op-ed lays out "Why Harris's Stance On Palestine Cost Her My Vote." A story titled "J.D. Vance And The Rise Of The Sperm Cups" mocks Trump's running mate over his "family values" positioning, which it described as a "one-way ticket back to the 1950s." And another written from "an FBI agent's perspective" alleged that Harris's running mate, Tim Walz, has a "'longstanding connection' to China and its government."

The third site, Savannah Time, presents itself as originating from the city of Savannah in the key swing state of Georgia. That site, according to Darren Linvill, co-director of the Watt Family Innovation Center Media Forensics Hub, is clearly intended to appeal to the right, with stories bashing Harris and her supporters.

Harris's economic policies are often in the crosshairs of Savannah Time, with one article describing them as "fiscally reckless crayon economics that would make even a drunken sailor blush." Another accuses her of "a dangerous flirtation with communist-style price controls."

Most of the articles published by the three sites are written by "staff," and the Open AI artificial intelligence research company said in an August 16 report that Storm-2035 relied heavily on ChatGPT to generate its content.

Experts suggest that in many ways Iran's approach to influencing the U.S. electoral system mirrors that of Russia, which employed troll farms to flood social media with disinformation and divisive content during the 2016 presidential election, broadly favoring Trump over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

"What we've seen from these websites suggests a sort of Russian-style [campaign], where they have set up websites that are targeting communities on both the left and the right," Linvill said.

"[They want] to potentially use those websites to target these communities to spread disinformation and perhaps make our politics more extreme than they would have been otherwise and facilitate the process of us fighting amongst ourselves," he added.

'Remarkably Well Done'

Linvill also said the Iranian websites in some ways surpass their Russian counterparts, and have improved over the years.

"They're really remarkably well done. They clearly use AI in really interesting ways to create their content, but they're really well put together," Linvill said.

Iranian efforts to influence the U.S. electoral process have been observed since as early as 2018, when inauthentic personas were used to impersonate candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives and to pose as journalists, according to the cyberthreat intelligence specialists Mandiant.

Analysts suggest that the campaign increased in scope following the assassination of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in a U.S. air strike in Iraq in January 2020 under then-President Trump.

Two Iranian nationals, for example, were charged by the United States for their involvement in a cyberenabled campaign to influence U.S. voters in the 2020 election, which Trump lost to President Joe Biden.

Mandiant noted that Iranian actors sent threatening e-mails to voters in the United States during the 2020 campaign. Mandiant and other cyberexperts also said that Iran used media sites like Even Politics to attempt to influence the 2022 midterm elections.

Aside from the use of media platforms, U.S. intelligence agencies and cyberthreat experts say that Iran is currently making use of hacking and phishing attacks in an attempt to disrupt the November presidential vote.

The Trump campaign on August 10 blamed the Iranian government for a hack of some of its internal communications, prompting a federal investigation.

A joint assessment by three U.S. intelligence bodies released on August 19 confirmed "increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle," including the "recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign."

This came after the U.S. director of national intelligence in July suggested that Tehran's efforts to influence the election was "probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid an outcome they perceive would increase tensions with the United States."

Considering the assassination of Soleimeni, the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear accord with Iran, and the souring of relations under the Trump administration, many experts suggest that Tehran would not favor another Trump presidency. The Trump campaign, following the hacking it blamed on Iran, suggested that it was due to past hostilities with Tehran.

'Hyper-Polarized Climate'

Kargar of DFRLab said in written comments that she had not "seen enough evidence on favoring one candidate over another." But Kargar said that “given Trump’s first term policies vis-a-vis Iran, it would only make sense that Iran would want to avoid a second Trump term at any cost."

But Harris's campaign has also been targeted. The joint U.S. intelligence report this month also said that it was confident that "the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties."

And a Google threat analysis group on August 14 said that APT42 had used phishing campaigns in an attempt to compromise "the personal [e-mail] accounts of individuals affiliated with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and former President Trump, including current and former government officials and individuals associated with the campaigns."

Tehran is going after both the Republican and the Democratic camps because "Iran is looking for ways to sow discord and drive wedges between different communities of voters in a hyper-polarized climate," Kargar said.

Russia, Kargar added, did the same in 2016.

The bigger question is whether Iran's campaign has had any impact in an election that is already divisive on its own.

Little is known about the hacking attacks confirmed by U.S. intelligence, although Trump wrote on social media that the hackers were "only able to get publicly available information" and U.S. media did not publish documents purportedly from within Trump's campaign that were sent anonymously.

In the case of the inauthentic websites operated by Iran's Storm-2035 campaign, Linvill said that "nobody's talking about them."

"It seems likely that they had been set up for some future purpose to help some future narrative laundering campaign that hasn't been undertaken yet," Linvill said.

Such campaigns usually have a very specific goal in mind or a specific story that the actor wants to spread, Livill said, but "we just can't say what that might be."

Linvill said he expects that to be cleared up as the election gets closer.

The Seed Of The Sacred Fig, a film by exiled Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, has been chosen to represent Germany in the competition for Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Academy Awards, German Films announced on August 22. German Films, which represents German cinema interests abroad, said that an independent jury of experts chose Rasoulof's film from among 13 submissions. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig is "a psychological portrait of Iran's theocracy which is built on violence and paranoia," according to the jury statement. Rasoulof told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda from Berlin where he now lives that “the movie offers a picture close to the reality about the women's protests in Iran." To read the original story on RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

When Iran’s reformist President Masud Pezeshkian submitted nominees for his 19-member Cabinet, many expected the hard-line parliament to reject at least some of his picks.

But in a rare move, lawmakers accepted the entire slate of ministers without a change, the first time a president has managed the feat in over two decades.

Pezeshkian hailed the move as a win for consensus in the divided country. But critics said the unanimous approval of his cabinet showed the limits of the president’s powers in Iran’s clerically dominated political system.

That is because Pezeshkian, addressing parliament before they voted on his nominees, said that the names were selected in “coordination” with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and preapproved by him.

Some Iranians saw Pezeshkian’s comments as an admission that the government is controlled by the supreme leader, who has the final say on all important matters of the state.

SEE ALSO:

'Reformist Loyalist' Masud Pezeshkian Is Iran's New President. Here's What To Expect.

Hamid Aboutalebi, a former Iranian ambassador to Australia, said Pezeshkian may have “won the battle in parliament” but had “lost [Iran’s] century-long war for constitutionalism and republicanism.”

Some Iranian social media users said the presidency had lost all legitimacy and Pezeshkian was effectively a prime minister reporting to Khamenei.

“Get rid of this meaningless position of president and appoint a prime minister,” said political activist Hossein Razzaq.

Razzaq added that Khamenei should pick the head of government so that public funds are not spent on holding “ridiculous elections for show" in Iran, where votes are tightly controlled.

In many countries, including Iran, a president is elected by the people. A prime minister, a role that does not exist in Iran, is typically chosen by parliament or the head of state.

Some Iranians argued that Khamenei had finally realized what they said was his yearslong goal of abolishing the presidency and installing a prime minister, arguing that in Pezeshkian, he had accomplished it without the need to change the constitution.

In 2011, Khamenei said there would be “nothing wrong in changing” the system of government if “one day in the distant future it is felt that a parliamentary system is better than a presidential system for appointing officials.”

Getting rid of the presidency would further widen Khamenei’s powers.

Iran abolished the position of prime minister in 1989, a decade after the Islamic Revolution. The prime minister’s duties were divided between the president and the newly established position of first vice-president.

Under the Islamic republic, the prime minister was nominated by the president and approved by parliament. He served as the head of the government.

The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces has rejected a media report saying that the helicopter crash in May in which Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died was caused by weather conditions and the aircraft's inability to handle the weight it was carrying.

Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency reported on August 21 that the investigation into the helicopter crash had been "fully completed by the regulatory and security institutions."

Fars quoted an unnamed security source informed of the final investigation as saying there was "absolute certainty that what happened was an accident." The monitoring and security institutions "did not identify a suspicious factor" in their final assessments, Fars reported.

The two reasons given for the crash were bad weather conditions and the helicopter’s inability to handle the weight of extra passengers that exceeded safety protocols, the source added.

According to the Fars report, the chopper was carrying two passengers beyond the recommended capacity when it crashed.

But after the Fars report, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces "strongly rejected" the reported findings, saying in a statement carried by state media that it was "distorted and discredited."

The headquarters said the claim that the helicopter was carrying more people than its capacity was "fundamentally false.”

The Bell 212 helicopter had a capacity of 15, including one pilot, according to the manufacturer. Raisi and seven others were killed when the helicopter crashed on its way to the city of Tabriz on May 19 in heavy fog as it crossed a mountainous and forested area.

Some reports at the time noted that because of international sanctions it has been difficult for Iran to obtain parts for its aging helicopter fleet. The Bell 212 was made in the United States and procured by Iran from the United States before the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Iran elected a new president, reformist Masud Pezeshkian, in June and on August 21 the country's hard-line parliament approved his 19-member Cabinet, accepting the entire slate of ministers without a change for the first time since 2001.

With reporting by AFP

Iran's hard-line parliament approved moderate reformist Masud Pezeshkian's 19-member Cabinet, accepting the entire slate of ministers without a change for the first time since 2001.

The vote on August 21 included the appointment of 61-year-old career diplomat Abbas Araghchi -- a member of the negotiating team that reached a nuclear deal with world powers in 2015 -- as Iran’s new foreign minister.

Pezeshkian, a doctor and a former health minister, defeated ultraconservative hard-liner Saeed Jalili in a July 5 runoff vote and was sworn in earlier this month.

The election was triggered by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.

Pezeshkian has called for "constructive relations" with Western countries and favors reviving the 2015 deal that fell apart after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018.

Iran's acute economic doldrums have since worsened under the weight of the harsh sanctions.

Pezeshkian has also said he supports the principles of the Islamic republic and said that he plans to follow Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's policies.

He has also questioned Iran's methods of enforcing the Islamic head scarf for women following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in 2022 while in the custody of Iran's dreaded morality police for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly.

He has also said that while the hijab law should be observed, "there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women."

Iran says it will take its time in its response to the July 31 killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Iran has kept the world on edge since it promised to strike Israel -- which it blames for the attack that killed Haniyeh -- a move experts say could plunge the region into an all-out war.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied carrying out the attack. But it has vowed to kill leaders of Hamas over the group’s October 7 attack inside Israeli territory that killed 1,200 people. Around 250 others were taken hostage, some of whom have since been released.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after the assassination that Iran was "duty-bound" to avenge its "guest."

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"Time is in our favor, and the waiting period for this response could be long," Ali Mohammad Naini, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on August 30, adding any response "may not be a repetition of past operations."

The 62-year-old Haniyeh was killed while he was in Tehran to attend the July 30 inauguration ceremony for Iran's new president, Masud Pezeshkian.

Tehran has rebuffed calls by Western nations to show restraint, insisting it has a legitimate right to respond to the killing of Haniyeh on Iranian territory.

The killing of Haniyeh and talk of retaliation comes as Washington continues to push to get Hamas and Israel to agree to a temporary cease-fire and a deal to release hostages being held in Gaza. Senior officials from the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt are engaged in the latest round of talks to secure such a deal.

Naini did not comment on how Iran may respond to the attack on Haniyeh, but his reference to "past operations" may refer to Tehran’s launching of more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in April in response to Israel's suspected bombing of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus.

Damage from the Iranian attack was minimal with some analysts saying the response appeared to be measured to avoid a broader conflict.

Iranian police have shut down Germany’s Das Deutsche Sprachinstitut Teheran (DSIT) -- the German Language Institute Tehran -- for allegedly “violating the country’s laws,” prompting Berlin to summon Iran's ambassador.

In a post on X, the Mizan news agency of Iran’s judiciary said on August 20 that two branches of “illegal centers affiliated with the German government” had been shut down for “committing several illegal actions and extensive financial violations.”

It added that the judiciary had "received reports of violations by other centers linked to Germany" without elaborating.

Formerly called the Goethe Institute, the cultural center is managed by the Germany Embassy in the Iranian capital.

"We condemn Iranian security authorities' treatment of that German language institute in Tehran," the Foreign Ministry in Berlin said, noting that the Iranian ambassador had been summoned.

Prior to Mizan’s post, an informed source told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that police officers had shuttered the institute’s branches in uptown Tehran on August 20, confirming earlier claims on social media.

The move comes after Germany last month banned the Islamic Center Hamburg, or IZH, an Iran-linked organization that it said "promotes an Islamist-extremist, totalitarian ideology in Germany."

The German authorities also shut down five IZH suborganizations, saying that they "also support the terrorists of Hizballah and spread aggressive antisemitism,” referring to Iran’s Lebanon-based ally that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States.

Speaking to Radio Farda, a former DSIT student said the closure was a “sad” development because the institute served as a “second home” for people who wanted to learn German in an environment “more open” than Iranian universities.

They said most people who studied at the institute sought to migrate to continue their studies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Now, those looking to learn German have to pay more to study at less reputable institutes and travel abroad to take an accredited German language exam.

Many people immediately expressed concerns about what the shuttering of the institute would mean for their scheduled language exams.

Photos shared on the social media platform showed several police cars parked outside premises of the cultural institute. Police officers were also seen standing under the institute’s torn-down signboard.

The Goethe Institute opened its first branch in Iran in 1958 but its cultural activities were severely restricted following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, resulting in its closure in 1987.

The institute resumed operations in 1995 under a new name -- DSIT -- but it continued to be referred to locally as Goethe Institute.

U.S. intelligence officials said on August 19 that they were confident Iran was responsible for the hacking of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. They cast the cyber intrusion as part of a brazen and broader effort by Tehran to interfere in U.S. politics and potentially shape the outcome of the November election. Besides breaching the Trump campaign, officials also believe Iran tried to hack into the presidential campaign of Kamala Harris. Iran’s mission to the United Nations denied the allegations as "unsubstantiated and devoid of any standing," saying Iran had neither the motive nor intention to interfere with the election.

Two rights groups have reported that eight people were executed in two Iranian prisons in the early hours of August 19. Haalvsh, a group that monitors rights violations against Iran's Baluch ethnic minority, said three Baluchis and two Afghan nationals were hanged in a prison in the central city of Yazd. Their charges varied from murder to carrying illicit drugs. Separately, the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights reported that three men had been executed in a prison in the southern city of Shiraz for similar charges. The group said Iran had executed at least 376 people this year. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

The chatbot ChatGPT has been used by a network of Iranian accounts to generate texts aimed at influencing the U.S. presidential election, according to the ChatGPT developer OpenAI. "We banned accounts linked to an Iranian influence operation using ChatGPT to generate content focused on multiple topics, including the U.S. presidential campaign," the company said in a statement on August 16. "We identified and took down a cluster of ChatGPT accounts that were generating content for a covert Iranian influence operation identified as Storm-2035," the statement said.

A new report says Iran is preparing to export Fath-360 and Ababil close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) to Russia and has started training Russian personnel to use the former.

There have been several reports since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 claiming Iran was gearing up to sell or had already supplied Russia with ballistic missiles. None of the reports was confirmed by U.S. or Ukrainian officials, and Iran continues to deny having armed or planning to arm Russia.

Analysts who spoke to RFE/RL were unsure about the latest report but added that if confirmed it would provide a boon for Russia's war efforts and have both benefits and pitfalls for Iran.

Russia's use of North Korean ballistic missiles briefly allayed concerns Moscow would turn to Iran to restock its inventory.

"However, the extensive demands of the battlefield may have strained North Korea's supply capabilities," Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.

She said Moscow might be seeking Iranian ballistic missiles as a strategy to "lessen its dependence on North Korea," which would allow Russia to play off Pyongyang and Tehran against each other, "potentially maximizing its strategic benefits."

A visit to Tehran on August 6 by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who previously served as the country's defense minister, fueled suspicions that Moscow was seeking to acquire Iranian missiles.

From Drones To Missiles

Since the early months of the Ukraine war, Russia was suspected of using Iranian-made Shahed and Mohajer-6 drones, many of which have been found after being shot down in Ukrainian cities and battlefields. Iran initially denied arming Russia before relenting and admitting that it had supplied "a limited number of drones" to Moscow before the war.

Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Tehran continues to deny that its drones are being used by Russia against Ukraine. That has not stopped the United States and EU from imposing sanctions on Iran for helping Moscow.

Grajewski said Iranian drones "had a comparative advantage over the Russian ones in terms of technology, manufacturing, and operational use." But with ballistic missiles, it "is about quantity, not quality."

Aside from the reputational boost that would come from supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran would also gain significant knowledge about how Fath-360 and Ababil perform in battle.

In addition, Grejewski said, the "operational use and any Russian modifications would potentially help Iran with some areas where its missiles tend to be lacking."

Earlier reports suggested Russia was eyeing Iran's Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar short-range ballistic missiles. But exporting those to Russia would put Iran in violation of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) range and payload thresholds, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.

However, Fath-360 and Ababil are under the 300 km and 500 kg thresholds established by the MTCR.

"Nonetheless, that does not mean [CRBMs] should be ignored, as they help Russia conserve their own domestically produced long-range strike assets and are further signs of a deepening Russo-Iranian relationship," Taleblu argued.

Taking Risks To Grow Partnership

Not contravening the MTCR would still draw the ire of Western nations if Iran ends up supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.

UN restrictions on Iran's imports and exports of missiles expired in October 2023, but the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) as well as the wider EU extended ballistic-missile sanctions against Iran.

"The E3 was resolute in their warnings to Iran," Grajewski said. "The supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would complicate any solution with the Iranian nuclear program."

Talks on restoring the nuclear deal have stalled and the agreement is set to expire in October 2025, so Iran may be looking to bolster its relations with Russia in case the prospects for reviving the deal disappear.

Iran took part in Russia's annual army exhibition, which was held in Moscow on August 12-14, and showcased some of its latest military technology including the Mohajer-10 drone -- the updated version of the Mohajer-6 that Russia has used in Ukraine.

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But Grajewski argued that more notable was the presence in Moscow of Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, a deputy commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters that is responsible for the operational command and control of Iran's armed forces.

Taleblu said Iran had received a combination of things for arming Russia with drones, including cash and gold, and maintained that "these vectors of cooperation are likely set to deepen."

"Iran is intent on moving up from the status of junior partner to Russia, which is one reason why the arms cooperation between the two over Ukraine is unlikely to be compartmentalized," he added.

The Revolutionary Court of Isfahan has acquitted Toomaj Salehi, an Iranian rapper who was sentenced to death over his protest songs against the Islamic republic.

Salehi’s lawyer said the court that heard his client's case in 2022 on the charge of "corruption on Earth" issued the ruling on August 14.

Amir Raesian said on X that Branch 5 of the Revolutionary Court of Isfahan had issued a verdict of acquittal in the case.

He added that the court also "issued a suspension of the prosecution order on other charges” and sent two charges of publishing computer lies and disturbing order to Criminal Court 2 with a “disqualification order.”

Salehi was sentenced to death by the Revolutionary Court in May on the "corruption on Earth” charge, but the Supreme Court overturned the punishment and referred the case to a parallel branch of the Revolutionary Court for reconsideration.

Salehi was serving a six-year prison sentence for his involvement in the 2022 protests that rocked Iran when he was sentenced to death on the "corruption on Earth” charge.

Salehi was initially arrested in October 2022 after making public statements in support of the protests that followed the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died while in police custody for allegedly wearing her head scarf improperly.

Salehi gained prominence for lyrics that rail against corruption, widespread poverty, executions, and the killing of protesters in Iran. His songs also point to a widening gap between ordinary Iranians and the country's leadership, accusing the authorities of "suffocating" the people without regard for their well-being.

After spending much of his pretrial detention in solitary confinement, he was sentenced to six years in prison but released in November 2023 on appeal after the Supreme Court found "flaws in the original sentence." But he was arrested with "beatings" only 12 days later after a video describing his torture in prison was published.

In a letter published in late May, Amnesty International said Salehi had been tortured and beaten repeatedly during his detention.

The U.S. Justice Department charged U.S.-Iranian national Jeffrey Chance Nader on August 14 with crimes related to the alleged export of U.S.-manufactured aircraft components to Iran. The Justice Department accused Nader, 68, who was arrested on August 13 in California, and other associates of conspiring to purchase and illegally export four types of aircraft components totaling nearly three dozen individual pieces in violation of U.S. economic sanctions and other federal laws. Some of the components are used in military aircraft operated by Iran’s armed forces, including U.S.-made F-4 fighter jets. The Justice Department said the indictment demonstrates its “commitment to keeping military-grade equipment out of the hands of the Iranian regime.”

Iran has kept the world on edge since it promised to strike Israel more than two weeks ago -- a move experts say could plunge the region into an all-out war.

The promised attack by Islamic republic is meant as retaliation for the July 31 killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after the assassination that Iran was "duty-bound" to avenge its "guest."

An Iranian attack has been "imminent" for the past two weeks, and this anticipation has led to frequent bouts of hysteria on social media predicting an attack by Iran and its allies -- including Lebanese militant group Hizballah -- within hours.

"I think they really enjoy that: watching Israel stuck in this waiting period, paying a heavy economic and psychological price," said Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

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But the fallout from the anticipation is a double-edged sword that also hurts Iran and its allies.

"The negative impact on Israel, be it the stress to the home front, the military mobilization, and even the economic consequences, will not be limited to Israel, but also affect Iran and Lebanon," warned Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

Why The Wait?

Analysts said the idea Iran is delaying its retaliation because it is relishing the psychological impact it is having is more of an excuse than a proper strategy.

They agreed intense domestic debates, the complexity of coordinating with proxies, and assessing the risks associated with an attack have all contributed to Iran's hesitation.

Zimmt said Iran is "facing a major dilemma" because while Khamenei and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) want to restore Iran's deterrence vis-a-vis Israel, there are elements in Iran that worry a large-scale attack could drag Iran into a war with Israel and maybe even the United States.

Even if a decision on how to respond to Haniyeh's killing has been made, coordinating with Hizballah and other members of the so-called axis of resistance -- Tehran's loosely knit network of regional state and nonstate allies and proxies -- is a time-consuming process.

Another factor likely affecting Iran's decision-making is the United States beefing up its military presence in the region more than it did in April ahead of Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel.

"We're seeing a bigger response [from the United States] than in April, which is probably meant to match the scope of the threat, as Iran may carry out a larger response than the one in April," Horowitz said.

"The message [from the United States] in sending both defensive assets -- but also potentially offensive ones -- is one of deterrence and perhaps the only kind of message that does truly matter at this stage."

Can Diplomacy Prevail?

Tehran has rebuffed calls by Western nations to show restraint, insisting it has a legitimate right to respond to Israel's killing of Haniyeh on Iranian territory.

Still, the flurry of phone calls made to new President Masud Pezeshkian and acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri-Kani have raised speculation that attempts at diplomacy have helped delay an attack and could potentially stave it off.

"I am skeptical that diplomacy, on its own, is enough to truly change the Iranian calculus," Horowitz said. "Iran will do what it feels is in its best interest, regardless of the calls and statements urging restraint."

But Iran has suggested a different kind of diplomacy could convince it to at least "delay" its promised attack: a permanent cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, speculated Iran "may be looking for off-ramps" to justify a toned-down response, and some kind of Gaza cease-fire could be just the "diplomatic victory" it needs to do that.

Zimmt said a Gaza cease-fire may not be important to Iran but it does provide Tehran with "an excuse or an explanation to legitimize this delay, both internally and mostly externally."

He said a cease-fire could lead to Iran either reducing the scale of its attack or choosing a different method of retaliation altogether that does not involve a direct strike on Israel.

No Good Options

It remains a mystery when and how Iran is going to respond, but as things stand Tehran does not seem to have any good options.

"Decision-makers in Tehran may have vacillated in finding a 'Goldilocks' option," Sabet said.

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That, he explained, is Iran's conundrum to deliver "a retaliatory strike that is not so weak as to have little symbolic or deterrent value, but not so strong as to cause an uncontrolled cycle of escalation that leads to a larger war."

Tehran is effectively left with either a weak response or one that crosses the threshold of war.

Both options "entail significant risks," Horowitz said, "either for Iran's regional projection power or the risks Iran could take if it crosses a line and is hit back in return."

Iranian authorities have issued a summons for the reimprisonment of 76-year-old human rights lawyer Mohammad Seifzadeh despite his ailing health, the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) said on August 14. Seifzadeh was summoned to Tehran's notorious Evin prison in mid-August on charges of "propaganda against the state" and "publishing falsehoods" for signing a joint letter by 45 Iranian activists calling on United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to speak out against political executions in Iran, CHRI said, adding that this was a "politically motivated attack."

Five Iranian women's rights activists were sentenced cumulatively to more than 20 years in prison, sources told RFE/RL. Nina Golestani, Anahita Hejazi, Anahita Dostdar, Rosita Rajaei, and Nagin Adalatkhah were arrested in the northern city of Rasht in November alongside other women activists. They were sentenced to three years and six months each for "assembly and collusion" and seven months and 16 days each for "propaganda against the regime." Rasht witnessed widespread protests during the "Women, Life, Freedom" demonstrations following the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, who was arrested for allegedly wearing her head scarf improperly. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

Iran on August 13 rejected Western calls to renounce its threat to retaliate against Israel following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Haniyeh was killed along with his personal bodyguard in Tehran on July 31 as he visited the Iranian capital for the swearing-in of President Masud Pezeshkian.

Israel hasn't confirmed or denied carrying out the attack.

Iran, Hamas's main backer, blames Israel for the killing of Haniyeh and has vowed revenge, raising fears of a wider war in the region.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said in a statement that "such a request lacks political logic, flies in the face of the principles and rules of international law, and constitutes public and practical support" for Israel.

Reuters quoted on August 13 three senior Iranian officials as saying that only a cease-fire deal in Gaza stemming from talks expected to take place in the coming days would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel.

Israel started an air and ground offensive in Gaza after Hamas fighters surged across the border into southern Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking more than 250 people hostage. Israel’s action has killed more than 38,900 people in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials from Hamas.

According to one of the officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, Iran, along with allies such as Hizballah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks, which are due to begin on August 15 in either Egypt or Qatar, fail or if it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. A cease-fire in Gaza, on the other hand, would give Iran cover for a smaller "symbolic" response, one of Reuters' sources said.

His statement came after the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy called on Iran on August 12 to "stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel."

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also held phone calls with Pezeshkian the same day.

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Starmer asked Pezeshkian to refrain from attacking Israel and said that war was not in anyone's interest, his office said. Starmer told Pezeshkian he was deeply concerned by the situation in the Middle East and called on all parties to de-escalate to avoid further regional confrontation.

"There was a serious risk of miscalculation and now was the time for calm and careful consideration," Starmer was quoted as saying, adding that he had underlined his commitment to an immediate cease-fire, the release of all hostages, and increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Following the call with Starmer, the Iranian president was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying that war anywhere in the world was in no one's interest but that states had the right to "punitive responses against an aggressor."

Scholz also called on Pezeshkian to prevent further military escalation in the Middle East. "The spiral of violence in the Middle East must now be broken," Scholz told Pezeshkian, according to a German government statement.

The United States on August 12 said it agreed with intelligence assessments that Iran and/or its proxies in the Middle East could "attack Israel as early as this week." U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that President Joe Biden had spoken to leaders of key Western allies to discuss the situation.

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Western diplomats have scrambled to avert a major conflagration in the Middle East, where tensions were already high due to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Israel's air and ground offensive has killed more than 38,900 people in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials from Hamas.

Israel launched its action after Hamas fighters surged across the border into southern Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 people and taking more than 250 people hostage.

With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and dpa

Yahya Sinwar, the alleged architect of the deadly October 7 attack on Israel and surprise appointment as the new leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated terror group Hamas, is known to have close ties to Iran.

His appointment on August 6 as the head of the Palestinian group's political bureau followed the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31, an act that Iran and Hamas blame on Israel.

Following the death of Haniyeh, who had strong relations with Iranian officials, the most prominent names to be considered as his successor were Khaled Meshaal, a former politburo chief of Hamas, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the bureau with close ties to Haniyeh.

The appointment of Sinwar, who has been the Hamas chief in Gaza since 2017, came as a big surprise because many did not take into account the Iran factor, analysts say.

"None of us experts on Palestinian affairs -- especially here in Israel -- thought about Sinwar as the person who would replace Haniyeh," said Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies who specializes in Israeli-Palestinian relations.

"One [major] reason why Sinwar is the [new] leader is Iran," he added.

Sinwar was appointed after two days of deliberations in Qatar by the Shura Council -- a consultative body that elects the group's politburo and has members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora.

Tzoreff said Meshaal's criticism during the 2011 Arab Spring of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad -- a close ally of Tehran -- made him a deeply unpopular figure among Iran's top brass.

Tzoreff argued that Mashaal's return to power could have jeopardized the Palestinian group's relations with the Islamic republic and "[the Iranians] may have stopped giving Hamas everything it needs [to fight Israeli forces]."

But Sinwar is reportedly stuck in Gaza, where he has been in hiding since the start of the war with Israel in October 2023. The constraints on his movement and restricted ability to communicate with the world mean Sinwar is very limited in what he can do.

"I don’t expect him or Hamas to become closer to Iran. At this point, the relationship will likely stay the same," said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa Program director at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.

Molded By Israeli Prisons

Also known by his supporters as Abu Ibrahim, the 61-year-old Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza. His parents, like Haniyeh's, fled the coastal town of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that resulted in the establishment of the state of Israel -- or what Palestinians call the "nakba" (catastrophe).

Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after it was formed in 1987 and set up its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main purpose was to find Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation for violence and was nicknamed the "Butcher of Khan Younis."

Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life terms for a variety of offenses -- including the killing of two Israeli soldiers -- and spent more than two decades in prison.

"He is a guy who was hardened in Israeli prisons, like many longtime Palestinian ex-prisoners," Hiltermann said.

He said Sinwar learned Hebrew while in prison and, crucially, this helped him to learn how Israeli leaders think.

"Sinwar's really tough. He is ruthless. He is very much a leader in the mold of any Israeli leader," Hiltermann said.

While in prison, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and emerged as a leader among incarcerated Palestinians.

His experience in prison "prepared him very well for the leadership of Hamas" and in planning the October 7 attack, Hiltermann said.

Nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed when Hamas militants raided communities in south Israel in October and took hostages back to Gaza. The attack prompted Israel to launch a major offensive in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, which Palestinian sources say has killed more than 40,000 people.

Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange that saw more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for one Israeli soldier held by Hamas. Soon after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The same day Sinwar was announced as Haniyeh's successor on August 6, Khamenei's account on X posted a short video of that visit showing Sinwar meeting with the Iranian leader in February 2012.

Hamas's Message

Traditionally, Hamas's political bureau chief is based abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies, such as Iran and the Lebanese Islamic militant group Hizballah.

But Sinwar, who U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken once joked is "buried 10 stories underground" in Gaza, is unable to leave the enclave because of the war.

Tzoreff said that, by appointing a Gaza-based leader, Hamas was "sending a very strong message" to both Israel and Arab states that "the resistance of Hamas has not collapsed."

"The main message is that nobody can push them out of the area," he added.

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Sinwar himself may not be keen on leaving Gaza, because his legitimacy is based on his being in the enclave.

"If Sinwar were to leave Gaza, Palestinians would say he is abandoning them, like a captain leaving the ship," Hiltermann said.

Sinwar has been in Israel's sights since the beginning of the war, with army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari describing him as a "dead man" following the October attack.

Killing Sinwar remains a priority for the Israeli army.

Chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi vowed on August 7 that his troops would target Sinwar and force Hamas to "replace the head of the political bureau again."