Iran
Factbox: Timeline Of The Iranian Nuclear Dispute
(epa) Below is a timeline of the unfolding international dispute surrounding Iran's nuclear program. While Tehran maintains that its program is entirely peaceful, the United States accuses Iran of secretly attempting to develop nuclear weapons, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Tehran has failed to persuade it that its program is purely nonmilitary.
23 May 2007 -- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says in a new report, issued to coincide with the expiration of a Security Council deadline for Tehran, that Iran continues to defy UN Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment and has in fact expanded such work. The IAEA adds that the UN nuclear agency's ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran has declined due to lack of access to sites. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges constructive efforts on both sides and estimates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within "three to eight years" -- if it chose that path.
17 May 2007 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says alongside outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the United States and Britain will seek new UN sanctions against Iran if it continues to resist calls for it to halt sensitive areas of its nuclear program. Bush is speaking the same day that a senior Iranian official says Tehran has expanded work on its nuclear facility at Natanz.
2 May 2007 -- A foreign affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a conservative daily that Iran is capable of the "mass production" of centrifuges used for enriching uranium.
28 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana calls on the United States to open a direct "channel of communication" with Iran on all topics, adding that it remains unclear "how far the U.S. is willing to engage" with Iran.
25-26 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy official Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani restart talks aimed at finding a nuclear compromise.
April 19, 2007 -- An IAEA official says in a leaked letter that Iran has assembled roughly 1,300 centrifuges into eight cascades and begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz. The Iranian ambassador to the IAEA says that "our enrichment is continuing under the safeguards of the IAEA, the inspectors and cameras are controlling all activities, and the report of how many centrifuge machines and the latest status of the activities in Natanz will be reported by the director-general."
11 April 2007 -- A spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicts that Iran will have the capacity to build its own nuclear bomb in four to six years, leaving time for diplomatic efforts to counter any potential danger.
10 April 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not accept any suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities and urges world powers to accept the "new reality" of the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
9 April 2007 -- Iran says the country's uranium-enrichment program is ready to operate on an "industrial level."
20 March 2007 -- Russia and Iran reject a report in "The New York Times" of March 19 suggesting that Moscow told Tehran it would withhold fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant unless Iran complied with UN demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
15 March 2007 -- Diplomats say the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany have agreed on a draft resolution imposing new sanctions on Iran for defying demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
12 March 2007 -- The Russian company building Iran's first nuclear power station at Bushehr, Atomstroiexport, announces that the facility's launch will be postponed due to a two-month payment delay preventing the delivery of uranium fuel.
11 February 2007 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, says the Russian supplier for its planned Bushehr nuclear plant has signaled a delay over delinquent payments. He suggests the real problem lies on the Russian side and that he hopes the plant is not being "politicized."
5 March 2007 -- IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei says Tehran has not convinced the UN nuclear watchdog of the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and an investigation into that program remains at a "stalemate" until Iran provides full cooperation.
26 February 2007 -- The United States says it is seeking "incremental" steps to pressure Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.
25 February 2007 -- President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear program is unstoppable and, in a show of its growing technical prowess the same day, Iran reportedly fires a rocket into space for the first time.
23 February 2007 -- U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says Washington will "do everything" it can to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and has not taken "any options off the table," spurring further speculation that U.S. officials would consider military intervention.
22 February 2007 -- The IAEA issues a report confirming that Iran has failed to halt uranium-enrichment activities, as demanded by the UN Security Council. The report also notes that Iran has expanded the program, installing two cascades with many dozens of centrifuges at Natanz and nearing completion on two more cascades.
21 February 2007 - The UN Security Council's 60-day deadline ends for Iran to halt uranium enrichment. Iranian parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel warns that a delay by Russia in completing the Bushehr nuclear plant would harm bilateral ties. His comments came after Russian nuclear officials' claim that lagging payments from Tehran could delay start-up of the facility.
11 February 2007 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says Iran wants talks to resolve its nuclear dispute and will cooperate with the IAEA, but Tehran will not suspend uranium enrichment. Iranian officials also say they will allow IAEA cameras at its underground nuclear facility at Natanz. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy calls Ahmadinejad's offer of talks while continuing enrichment "totally unacceptable."
8 February 2007 -- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says that while he does not expect anything as "irrational" as an attack on Iran, his country would strike back at U.S. interests around the world if it were attacked. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council dismisses Khamenei's comment as "unprovoked" and says President George W. Bush "has made it clear we have no intention of going to war with Iran." Bush's chief spokesman says flatly, "We are not invading Iran."
1 February 2007 -- The French president's office essentially retracts a recent suggestion by Jacques Chirac that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be "very dangerous," calling such an eventuality unacceptable and describing Iran's nuclear program as "opaque and therefore dangerous for the region."
31 January 2007 -- Iran's embassy in Moscow denies a British newspaper report that North Korea is giving it technical help to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one carried out by Pyongyang in October.
28 January 2007 -- After talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, visiting Russian security chief Igor Ivanov says "Russia is determined" to finish Bushehr nuclear power plant, in southern Iran, on time.
26 January 2007 -- IAEA chief Muhammad el-Baradei warns that a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could have "catastrophic consequences" and would only encourage Iran to develop an atomic bomb. "Are you going to bomb the knowledge?" he asks.
22 January 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki confirms reports that 38 UN nuclear inspectors have been prohibited from entering the country in a list that was reportedly delivered to the IAEA; the next day, Tehran stresses that cooperation with the IAEA continues, despite the ban. The European Union urges all countries to enforce the recently passed UN sanctions against Iran.
12 January 2007 -- Outgoing U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte tells the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that Iran is capable of weathering shocks to its economy, noting record oil revenues and manageable debt.
10 January 2007 -- The United States urges China to reconsider a $16 billion energy deal with Iran on the development of oil and gas fields whose outlines were affirmed in a memorandum of understanding in December 2006.
27 December 2006 -- Iran's parliament passes a bill that obliges the government to "revise its cooperation level" with the UN's nuclear watchdog and, at the same time, continue to pursue the country's civilian nuclear program.
25 December 2006 -- President Ahmadinejad responds to UN Security Council Resolution 1737 by saying the sanctions will have "no impact" on Iran's nuclear program.
23 December 2006 -- The 15-member UN Security Council unanimously adopts a binding resolution that calls on Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and to comply with its IAEA obligations. Resolution 1737 directs all states to prevent the supply or sale to Iran of any materials that could assist its nuclear or ballistic-missile programs. It also imposes an asset freeze on key companies and individuals named by the UN as contributors to Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Iran rejects the move as an "invalid" and "extralegal act" outside the bounds of the UN's charter.
6 December 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov says that imposing overly tough sanctions on Iran could draw out the nuclear dispute.
5 December 2006 -- Ahead of a major-powers meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue, Iranian President Ahmadinejad warns the international community that "if you continue making efforts to halt the progress of Iran's nuclear program [or] if you take any step against Iran's rights -- either in propaganda or international bodies -- the Iranian nation will consider this a hostile act."
23 November 2006 -- UN diplomats are quoted as saying the IAEA's board of governors shelved Iran's bid for technical aid for a heavy-water reactor project at Arak over fears it could yield weapons-grade plutonium.
20 November 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad reportedly says Tehran wants 60,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium to meet its nuclear-fuel needs within a year. He also is quoted as saying that Israel is currently incapable of launching an effective military attack against Iran's nuclear sites.
17 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says the IAEA should lead efforts to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, rather than UN Security Council. He suggests that "it was agreed from the beginning that we would seek through the Security Council the swift resumption of negotiations with Iran, and not the punishment of Iran."
15 November 2006 -- U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton says no progress was made in talks on the Iranian nuclear issue involving himself and envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany.
14 November 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad predicts that Iran will celebrate its "full nuclearization" by the end of the year that concludes in March, and suggests his country's right to pursue nuclear technology will soon be acknowledged internationally. Reports also emerge suggesting the IAEA will soon report that Iran continues to enrich uranium, spurn cooperation over its nuclear program, and that UN inspectors are pursuing their discovery of unexplained traces of plutonium and highly enriched uranium at a waste facility in Iran with officials in Tehran.
13 November 2006 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says after talks with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that "there has to be a consequence" if Iran proceeds with its uranium-enrichment program in defiance of international pressure.
12 November 2006 -- An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says Tehran is pressing ahead with plans to expand its program to enrich uranium and remains determined to install 3,000 centrifuges by March 2007.
11 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russia wants to restart nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.
10-11 November 2006 -- Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani emerges from talks in Moscow divulging no details but saying Iran is ready for dialogue to resolve any disputes over its nuclear program; he reportedly meets with President Vladimir Putin on the second day of his visit.
8 November 2006 -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany are reportedly still deadlocked after a meeting at the UN to discuss a European draft resolution to curtail Iran's nuclear program and amendments offered by Moscow and Washington. Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin says there is still a "considerable gap" separating the parties.
5 November 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini says Tehran is ready to consider negotiating with the United States on regional issues, including Iraq, if Washington requests it.
4 November 2006 -- Russia stresses that any punitive measures the UN Security Council agrees to impose on Iran "should have a precise limitation on the period for their being in effect."
3 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says after a meeting in Brussels that a European draft UN resolution on Iran sanctions "goes far beyond [our] agreements."
1 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says a draft UN resolution authored by France, Germany, and Britain to impose sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear ambitions would isolate Iran and Moscow "cannot support measures that are aimed at isolating Iran from the outside world."
31 October 2006 -- Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov says his country has no information "that would suggest that Iran is carrying out a nonpeaceful [nuclear] program," adding that "the possibilities for continuing political discussion...have not been exhausted."
30 October 2006 -- Iran's president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, says Tehran would make an "appropriate and firm" response to UN sanctions, adding that "the Iranian nation is standing strong and it will not retreat even one bit from its nuclear rights."
28 October 2006 -- Mohammad Ghannad, the deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, says that Tehran has stepped up its uranium-enrichment work.
24 October 2006 -- Anonymous diplomatic sources at the UN say major world powers remain split over the details of a draft Security Council resolution to respond to Iran's continuing nuclear work.
21 October 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says Moscow opposes any attempt to use the Security Council to punish Iran over its nuclear program.
18 October 2006 -- EU foreign ministers express backing for gradual sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.
16 October 2006 -- In his country's first reaction to sanctions targeting North Korea for its apparent nuclear-weapons test on October 9, President Ahmadinejad dismisses the UN Security Council as a tool for "hegemony" and "intimidation."
4 October 2006 -- EU foreign policy chief Solana says four months of intensive talks have brought no agreement on suspension of Iran's sensitive nuclear activities, and he adds that the dialogue cannot continue indefinitely.
3 October 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggests the international community will have no choice but to impose sanctions on Iran if it refuses to suspend its uranium-enrichment efforts.
26 September 2006 -- Russia and Iran agree on a September 2007 launch of Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr, with electricity production to begin two months later.
25 September 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says nuclear talks with European negotiators are "on track" and a diplomatic solution is possible.
22 September 2006 -- Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi warns that Iran's armed forces will strike back "like lightning" against any attack on the country and destroy "the enemy."
21 September 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says nuclear talks with the EU are "on the right path." He adds that he is "at a loss" as to what more Tehran can do to provide guarantees that it is no trying to develop nuclear weapons.
20 September 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says six major world powers have agreed to back further EU talks with Iran, but he hints that Washington will push for sanctions if Tehran continues sensitive nuclear work. Burns says an unspecified deadline has been set for the current EU-Iranian talks to achieve results.
19 September 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today urged other permanent members of the UN Security Council not to allow their "credibility to decline" by failing to act against Iran.
17 September 2006 -- German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposes the creation of shared, U.N.-monitored uranium-enrichment facilities as an alternative to individual countries acquiring their own enrichment technology.
14 September 2006 -- To "set the record straight," the IAEA protests in a letter to U.S. officials that a recent U.S. report describing Iran's nuclear program as a strategic threat contains "erroneous, misleading, and unsubstantiated information." The IAEA dismisses as untrue a claim that Iran is enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels; Iran is enriching to 3.6 percent, not the 90 percent needed for nuclear weapons.
13 September 2006 -- A spokeswoman for EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana says a second round of EU-Iranian nuclear talks slated for the following day have been postponed. The same day, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested that Tehran's position on the nuclear issue might have softened.
11 September 2006 -- Muhammad el-Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says he is "encouraged that there is ongoing dialogue" over Iran's nuclear activities.
9-10 September 2006 -- Two days of "productive" EU-Iranian talks end inconclusively, with a vow to meet again the following week.
September 8, 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says the UN Security Council should begin drafting a resolution in the next week on sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. He notes that there is still no consensus on what type of sanctions might be imposed.
5 September 2006 -- The Iranian parliament's Commission for National Security and Foreign Policy approves the outlines of a bill to suspend entry to Iran of UN inspectors in the event of punitive measures by the UN Security Council.
1 September 2006 -- Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami arrives in the United States ahead of a UN conference and several public appearances that make him the most senior Iranian official to visit the United States outside the strict framework of a UN event in more than two decades.
31 August 2006 -- The IAEA reports to the Security Council that Iran has continued to enrich uranium despite UN calls for it to stop its nuclear activities by August 31, adding that its own investigations have been frustrated by a lack of cooperation from Iran.
29 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says he thinks the UN Security Council will not punish Iran, but says his country "will not bow to threats and ultimatums." He says Tehran's response to the recent international deadline presents a "very exceptional opportunity" to resolve the nuclear dispute. Ahmadinejad also proposes a live, televised debate with U.S. President George W. Bush.
27 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad launches a new phase in Iran's nuclear development with the formal opening of a heavy-water-production plant at Arak. Critics fear the plant will eventually be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium, and the IAEA will later shelve an Iranian request for international technical assistance with the plant. Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran is determined to produce its own nuclear fuel.
22 August 2006 -- Iran responds to a self-imposed deadline by saying an international proposal to curb its disputed nuclear program has "fundamental and serious ambiguities" but adds that Tehran is ready for "serious talks." Iranian officials essentially ignore the demand by the UN Security Council's permanent members plus Germany that Iran halt uranium enrichment.
4 August 2006 -- The United States slaps sanctions on seven international arms dealers, including two major Russian companies, for allegedly providing banned technology to Iran.
31 July 2006 --The UN Security Council adopts Resolution 1696, calling for Iran to suspend uranium-enrichment activites by August 31 or face the possibility of economic sanctions.
18 July 2006 -- The unfolding crisis between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon delays UN consideration of Iran's nuclear program.
16 July 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says the international incentives package is "an acceptable basis" for further negotiations.
12 July 2006 -- A meeting of foreign ministers of the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany in Paris decides to refer Iran's nuclear program back to the Security Council for possible sanctions.
11 July 2006 -- The EU announces that it is disappointed with progress in Brussels talks with Iran over the international incentives package.
30 June 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not respond to the international incentives package before August, despite U.S. and EU pressure for Tehran to answer by July 5.
16 June 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad calls a package of international incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to abandon sensitive nuclear activities "a step forward" and says he has "asked my colleagues to carefully consider it."
15 June 2006-- Russian President Putin says after a meeting with President Ahmadinejad on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that the talks left him with a "very positive impression." Putin says Ahmadinejad says Iran is "positively" assessing the package of nuclear incentives. Putin also says any country has the right to use nuclear technology so long as it "does not arouse concerns of the international community on the [nuclear] nonproliferation issue."
12 June 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council chief and top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says of the incentives offer that "this proposal contains some positive points, such as the nuclear reactor for Iran." Larijani's comments come as the IAEA board is launching a meeting at which it will discuss the Iranian nuclear standoff.
9 June 2006 -- Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, who holds the European Union's rotating presidency, says Iran has until the July summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries to respond to an offer of incentives aimed at resolving the crisis over its nuclear program.
8 June 2006 -- A new report by the UN nuclear agency says Iran is continuing to enrich uranium and indicates that nuclear inspectors have made little progress on shedding light on worrying aspects of Tehran's nuclear activities in the past.
6 June 2006 -- EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana meets in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials and presents them with fresh proposals aimed at persuading Iran to abandon its uranium-enrichment program. The proposals have been agreed on by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States -- plus Germany.
17 May 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says in a televised speech that Tehran will reject a European offer of incentives to give up uranium enrichment, saying acceptance of the proposal would be tantamount to swapping nuts and chocolate for gold.
28 April 2006 -- The IAEA sends its report to the UN Security Council faulting Iran for failing to meet demands to suspend uranium enrichment and improve cooperation with nuclear inspectors. The report marks the end of the Security Council's 30-day deadline for demonstrating that its nuclear activities are only for civilian purposes. U.S. President Bush expresses a desire to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
27 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says on the sidelines of a NATO meeting that the UN Security Council "has to act" in order to remain credible if Iran ignores the deadline for halting uranium enrichment. Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran will not comply.
25 April 2006 -- Top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran will cut ties with the IAEA if the UN Security Council imposes sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.
24 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear activities are transparent and he does not think pursuing uranium enrichment will lead to international sanctions.
23 April 2006 -- Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says Iran's uranium-enrichment and nuclear-research activities are "irreversible."
19 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Rice says Washington is prepared to use political, economic, and other measures to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, adding that it has "diplomatic tools" at its disposal.
12 April 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to discuss the country's nuclear program with senior Iranian officials but few details emerge. El-Baradei says he cannot confirm Iranian claims that its scientists have enriched uranium to fuel power stations.
11 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad announces, using Islamic rhetoric in a special ceremony seemingly designed to attract popular support, that Iran has completed the nuclear-fuel cycle. The achievement places Iran among the "nuclear countries of the world."
2 April 2006 -- Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, claims that the more the Security Council is involved, the worse the situation will become.
30 March 2006 -- The five permanent UN Security Council members -- the United States, Britain, France, China, and Russia -- and Germany warn Iran that it must heed the UN statement insisting that it stop its nuclear work or face isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki dismisses the warning; other officials will also reject the Security Council warning. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges Iran to be more forthcoming but also says he thinks sanctions at this time would be unwise.
29 March 2006 -- UN Security Council unanimously adopts statement calling on Tehran to halt its nuclear work.
28 March 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov demands that Tehran say "unambiguously" whether it will accept or reject Russia's offer to enrich uranium to supply an Iranian nuclear program. Reports emerge that the Iranian Embassy in Moscow has proposed the establishment -- with the involvement of other countries -- of a nuclear-fuel production center in Iran.
25 March 2006 -- Syrian First Vice President Faruq al-Shara and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki decry Israel's nuclear program as a threat to regional peace.
21 March 2006 -- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says "there is no problem with" direct talks rumored to have been planned between Iran and the United States over the situation in Iraq, as long as those discussions lead Washington to understand Tehran's position. Iranian sources have been quoted as insisting the talks must be limited to the topic of Iraq.
20 March 2006 -- U.S. President Bush says he hopes "to solve this [nuclear] issue diplomatically" with a "united message" from the five permanent Security Council members but adds that Iranian officials' threats against "our strong ally, Israel," are "a threat to world peace." Bush adds that "we will use military might to protect our ally, Israel."
16 March 2006 -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair insists the international community "cannot walk away" from the Iranian nuclear issue and says there was no point turning to the UN "unless something is going to follow as a result of that."
12 March 2006 -- Tehran says a Russian proposal to move Iran's enrichment program to Russia is "off" the agenda and that Iran will not consider any proposal that does not guarantee the country's "right to nuclear research."
8 March 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei says at the end of a three-day meeting that the agency will forward his report -- which accuses Iran of withholding information, possessing plans linked to nuclear weapons and refusing to freeze uranium enrichment -- to the UN Security Council. El-Baradei urges Iran to "be transparent" and "take confidence-building measures." Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad vows in a televised speech that "Iran will not give in to any political pressure, [will] make no compromise, and will go to the end of the line."
7 March 2006 -- Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says Tehran has "crossed the international red line" with its activities to enrich uranium, adding that unless Iran suspends all nuclear activities, the Security Council must get involved.
3 March 2006 -- European talks with Iranian officialsfailto provide a nuclear compromise ahead of the IAEA's March 6-8 meeting.
2 March 2006 -- Reports say Russian-Iranian talks in Moscow fail to produce a "decisive breakthrough" on the basis of a Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Iran. Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani pledges that his country will not stop its enrichment activities.
26 February 2006 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam-Reza Aqazadeh, says Iran and Russia have reached basic agreement on a Russian proposal to host Iran's uranium-enrichment program.
14 February 2006 -- Ten days after the IAEA voted to report it to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities, Iran confirms that it has resumed work on uranium enrichment.
5 February 2006 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki announces the end of Iran's voluntary cooperation with the IAEA.
4 February 2006 -- IAEA governing board votes overwhelmingly to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities.
30 January 2006 -- Foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), plus Germany, concur that Iran should be reported to the council for its nuclear activities, but action should be delayed until after the March meeting of the IAEA governing board. Tehran counters with a threat to end all cooperation with the IAEA and adherence to international accords, as called for by an earlier parliamentary decision.
24 January 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani visits Moscow to discuss a December proposal that nuclear fuel enriched in Russia will be shipped to Iran for use, then returned to Russia for storage. Larijani indicated a lack of enthusiasm on 27 January, telling reporters at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport that Moscow's idea does not conform fully with Tehran's needs. He said the proposal should be revised in future discussions. The next round of Iran-Russia talks is scheduled for 16 February.
11 January 2006 -- Leaders from the United States, Russia, and EU countries roundly condemn Iran for its resumption of nuclear-fuel activities. The leaders renew calls for referring the dispute to the UN Security Council.
3 January 2006 -- Iranian Atomic Energy Organization deputy head Mohammad Saidi told state television that Tehran will resume its nuclear-fuel research. The Iranian government confirmed the report on 9 January.
25 December 2005 -- Tehran formally rejects an offer from Moscow to enrich uranium for its nuclear program in Russia. Iranian officials insist upon Iran's right to enrich uranium on its own soil.
24 November 2005 -- A meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors postpones any action on Iran's nuclear program. The move is aimed at reopening negotiations on a Russian proposal for a compromise that would allow Iran to enrich uranium, but only in Russia and under strict controls.
15 October 2005 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The two officials disagree over Iran's nuclear program, with Lavrov maintaining the Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
12 October 2005 -- The EU issues a statement calling on Iran to continue negotiations with the EU-3 and to improve its human-rights record.
7 October 2005 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency are jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in part for their work in mediating the conflict over Iran's nuclear program.
28 September 2005 -- Iran's parliament votes to expedite a bill that would end voluntary IAEA inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities.
25 September 2005 -- Tehran rejects the IAEA report and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says his country remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
24 September 2005 -- The IAEA governing board adopts a resolution that says the nuclear watchdog, "after two and a half years of intensive inspections," remains unclear on "some important outstanding issues." "Iran's full transparency is indispensable and overdue," it continues, adding that the agency questions Iran's motives for not declaring certain factors and "pursuing a policy of containment." The resolution does not refer Iran to the UN Security Council, but it does hint at this possibility by noting that some of the outstanding questions are "within the competence of the Security Council. The resolution was approved by a vote of 22 in favor, 1 against (Venezuela), and 12 abstentions. (See also, "Iranian Government Reacts To IAEA Nuclear Resolution.")
17 September 2005 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad announces the Iranian position on the nuclear issue at the UN General Assembly. "Peaceful use of nuclear energy without possession of nuclear fuel cycle is an empty proposition," he said. He expressed concern about the creation of a nuclear "apartheid," and he calls for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East. "In accordance with our religious principles, pursuit of nuclear weapons is prohibited," Ahmadinejad said. As a confidence-building measure, Ahmadinejad said, Iran is willing to partner with public and private groups in its uranium-enrichment program. He added that Iran will continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, he dismissed promises that other countries will be the source of fuel for the Iranian nuclear program.
The signing of the fuel agreement between Russia and Iran in February 2005 (epa)
August 2005 -- Iran rejects the EU proposal, which includes commercial and political cooperation in exchange for Iran's forsaking efforts to develop nuclear fuel. (See also, "IAEA Draft Resolution Expresses 'Serious Concern' Over Iran's Nuclear Activities.") The European proposal included an offer to help build a light-water reactor and then provide fuel for it. (Fuel for a light-water reactor is cannot be used for weapons.)
July 2005 -- President Khatami says on 19 July that Iran will not forsake the right to produce nuclear fuel and the enrichment suspension will not be permanent. He says on 27 July that activities at the Isfahan UCF could resume in days, depending on the concessions proposed at an Iran-EU meeting. "The system has already made its decision to resume Isfahan's activities," he said.
May 2005 -- Iranian officials repeat that activities at Isfahan UCF will resume "soon," but then Tehran agrees to wait for two months after Iranian and EU officials meet in Geneva.
April 2005 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani said on 30 April -- after the previous day's negotiations in London with British, French, and German representatives failed to yield substantive results -- Tehran is considering resumption of activities at the Isfahan uranium conversion facility (UCF).
February 2005 -- Iran and Russia sign an agreement on the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia for reprocessing and storage. This measure is intended to eliminate the possibility that the materials will be used for making nuclear weapons. Fuel delivery will take place six months before the facility's completion, which should occur at the end of 2006.
January 2005 -- IAEA inspectors visit the Parchin military site, which is southwest of Tehran, to investigate allegations that the military tested conventional explosives that can be used to detonate nuclear weapons there.
December 2004 -- Talks between Iran and the EU-3 over political and economic concessions, in exchange for Iran making its enrichment suspension permanent, are scheduled to begin on 13 December (see "How Close Is Iran To The Bomb?").
November 2004 -- Iran holds talks in Paris with the EU-3. On 14 November, Iran signs an agreement to suspend uranium enrichment. The Europeans offer a series of political and economic concessions in exchange. But at an IAEA board of governors meeting from 25-29 November -- which was set to pass a resolution endorsing the deal and agreeing to monitor it -- Iran insists on an exemption for 20 centrifuges for research purposes. Iran eventually backs down, but demands -- and wins -- key changes softening the resolution in exchange. Most importantly, the resolution describes the enrichment freeze as a voluntary, rather than the legally binding commitment as both the United States and the EU sought. (See also, "The Iranian Nuclear Imbroglio.")
October 2004 -- The EU-3 again calls for Iran to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities to avoid its case being brought before the Security Council. The Europeans offer economic and political incentives in exchange. The Iranian parliament passes a bill approving the resumption of enrichment activities.
September 2004 -- An IAEA report calls Iran's claims about its nuclear program "plausible," but voices concern over Iran's decision to resume large-scale production of the feed material for enriching uranium. Claiming enrichment is a "sovereign right," Iran refuses to accept an unlimited suspension and says it will not stop manufacturing centrifuges. The IAEA gives Iran a 25 November deadline to reveal all its nuclear activities. Tehran later announces that it has resumed large-scale conversion of uranium yellowcake ore, a step toward uranium enrichment.
July 2004 -- Iran says it has resumed production of parts for centrifuges that are used for enriching uranium, but insists that it has not resumed its enrichment activities. The announcement appears to put the enrichment-freeze deal worked out between Iran, the EU-3, and the IAEA in jeopardy.
June 2004 -- IAEA says that inspectors found new traces of enriched uranium that exceeded the levels necessary for civilian energy production.
May 2004 -- Iran submits to the IAEA a 1,000-page report on its nuclear activities.
February 2004 -- Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear program, says that he had provided atomic secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea since the late 1980s. IAEA inspectors notice similarities in designs and components for the advanced P-2 centrifuge, adding to suspicions that Khan supplied both North Korea and Iran with same nuclear know-how.
November 2003 -- An IAEA report states that at the moment there is no conclusive proof that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The United States, seeking to have the matter sent to the UN Security Council, dismisses the conclusion. The IAEA's 35-member board of governors passes a resolution sternly rebuking Iran for covering up 18 years of atomic experiments, but does not send the matter to the Security Council.
October 2003 -- The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Great Britain travel to Tehran and persuade Iran to agree to stop enriching uranium and to sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT. The EU-3 also dangle economic concessions if Tehran cooperates fully with the IAEA. Iran turns over a declaration to the IAEA admitting to 18 years of covert atomic experiments, including the unreported uranium enrichment, although it continues to deny this was for a weapons program.
Students demonstrating in support of Iran's nuclear program at Isfahan in August 2005 (AFP)
July 2003 -- IAEA begins a fresh round of inspections in Iran.
June 2003 -- In a report, el-Baradei says inspections have demonstrated that "Iran failed to report certain nuclear materials and activities" and urges Tehran to cooperate with the agency. The report does not declare Iran in breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The IAEA requests that Iran sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT and allow unannounced inspections of its nuclear sites.
February 2003 -- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to verify Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is peaceful. IAEA inspectors later find traces of highly enriched uranium at Natanz and other sites.
August 2002 -- An Iranian exile opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, accuses Tehran of hiding a uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy-water plant at Arak.
(compiled by RFE/RL)
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- By RFE/RL
Iranian Foreign Minister Says There's A 'Limited' Chance For Nuclear Talks With West
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on November 16 that there remains a "limited opportunity" for nuclear negotiations with the West, according to Iranian state media.
Relations between Tehran and the United States have been especially tense since then-President Donald Trump withdrew unilaterally from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and global powers and reimposed tough U.S. sanctions on Iran.
"There is still an opportunity for diplomacy, although this opportunity is not much. It is a limited opportunity," Araqchi was quoted as telling state television.
Western concerns at Iranian actions have soared amid the yearlong war in the Gaza Strip after U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas carried out a brutal attack in Israel in October 2023, with Iranian allies including Huthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon attacking Israel in support of Hamas.
With Trump poised to return to the White House in January following his election victory earlier this month, reports circulated of possible informal contacts, including claims that Trump ally Elon Musk met last week in New York with Iran's envoy to the United Nations.
After days of silence, Tehran on November 16 "categorically denied" that any such meeting took place.
This week, Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as the return of Trump could mean the window for diplomacy is closing.
The 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had given Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
After Washington's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran expanded its nuclear program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
U.S. President Joe Biden entered the White House in 2017 pledging to try to revive the deal but made no breakthroughs.
Trump's announced pick for secretary of state, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is generally regarded as an advocate of tough action to counter Iranian influence through a return to a "maximum pressure" policy.
With additional reporting by AFP
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- RFE/RL
Iran 'Categorically Denies' Its UN Envoy Met With Trump Ally Musk
Tehran has "categorically denied" U.S. reports suggesting that billionaire Trump ally and adviser Elon Musk met with Iranian Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeed Iravani in New York last week, contradicting reporting by The New York Times and AP asserting that Tehran sought the meeting in an apparent effort to ease tensions with President-elect Donald Trump. Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying those are "false reports." In his first term, Trump withdrew from a major nuclear accord with Tehran and global powers and reimposed tough sanctions that walloped Iran's currency and economy. Trump has pledged close if informal cooperation with Musk, who has boasted that he has "top-secret clearance" and said he looks forward to a role as "first buddy" to the next U.S. president. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By AP
Lebanon's PM Asks Iran To Help Secure Cease-Fire Between Israel, Hezbollah
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, on November 15 asked Iran to help secure a cease-fire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and whose military wing is blacklisted by the European Union.
He also appeared to urge Iran to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.
As a top adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei visited Lebanon for talks, Lebanese officials said an American proposal for a cease-fire deal had been passed on to Hezbollah, aiming to end 13 months of exchanges of fire between Israel and the group.
Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization Hamas’s surprise attack into Israel on October 7, 2023, ignited the war in Gaza.
- By Reuters
Iran Backs Lebanon In Cease-Fire Talks, Seeks End To 'Problems'
Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in talks to secure a cease-fire with Israel, a senior Iranian official said on November 15, signaling Tehran wants to see an end to a conflict that has dealt heavy blows to its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and whose military wing is blacklisted by the European Union. Israel launched air strikes in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, flattening buildings for a fourth consecutive day. Israel has stepped up its bombardment of the area this week, an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in U.S.-led diplomacy toward a cease-fire. Senior Iranian official Ali Larijani, asked whether he had come to Beirut to undermine the U.S. truce plan, said: "We are not looking to sabotage anything. We are after a solution to the problems."
- By RFE/RL
IAEA Chief Visits Iran's Underground Nuclear Enrichment Sites
Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has visited Iran’s key underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, Iranian state media reported on November 15, without offering details. Iran has restricted inspection of its nuclear sites and barred several IAEA inspectors from visiting its enrichment facilities. Grossi is in Iran to push for diplomacy, warning that the “space for negotiation…is getting smaller” over Iran’s advancing nuclear program. Tehran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. The visit comes ahead of an upcoming meeting of the IAEA's Board of Governors, where some nations are pushing for action against the Islamic republic.
- By Kian Sharifi
With Trump 2.0 Looming, Saudi Arabia Pursues 'Cautious Detente' With Longtime Rival Iran
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been bitter rivals for decades, vying to lead competing branches of Islam and standing on opposing sides of conflicts in Syria and Yemen.
But Tehran and Riyadh have taken major steps to de-escalate tensions and boost cooperation, a move that appeared unthinkable until recently.
The rapprochement has coincided with growing fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
The detente process has intensified since Donald Trump's decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month. The president-elect has pledged to bring peace to the region.
"I don't view this as a warming of relations but rather as a cautious detente," said Talal Mohammad, associate fellow at the Britain-based Royal United Services Institute.
Reassuring Iran
The first signs of a thaw came in March 2023, when Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations after more than seven years following a surprise Chinese-brokered agreement.
But it was Israel's invasion of Gaza in October 2023 -- soon after the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel -- that gave real impetus to Iran-Saudi rapprochement efforts.
Since the war erupted, Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks for the first time. The tit-for-tat assaults have brought the region to the brink of a full-blown conflict.
Saudi Arabia is "concerned that these escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could spiral out of control and lead to a broader regional conflict that may impact their interests," said Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Azizi adds that Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shi'a-dominated Iran are still "far from friends," despite the recent rapprochement, and they remain rivals vying for influence.
Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has stopped conducting air strikes in neighboring Yemen against the Iran-backed Huthi rebels. Riyadh has also made attempts to negotiate an end to the 10-year conflict pitting the Huthis against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
The Huthis have also ceased cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia. In 2019, the rebels managed to shut down half of the kingdom's oil production.
The Trump Factor
Trump's victory in the November 5 presidential election has injected more urgency to the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, experts say.
Saudi Arabia's top general, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, made a rare trip to Iran on November 10 to meet Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Baqeri in what Iranian media dubbed "defense diplomacy."
The following day, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman accused Israel of committing "collective genocide" against Palestinians in Gaza and explicitly condemned Israel's attack last month on Iranian military sites.
Azizi says there are fears in the region that Trump's electoral victory will embolden Israel to intensify its attacks on Iran and Tehran's interests.
During Trump's first term in office from 2017 to 2021, his administration pursued a campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran that included imposing crippling sanctions against Tehran.
At the same time, Trump struck a close relationship with Riyadh. He helped facilitate normalization between several Arab states and Israel under the so-called Abraham Accords.
Before Israel launched its devastating war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia was reportedly on the verge of a historic deal to normalize relations with Israel.
Experts say that the Huthis' attacks in 2019 on Saudi oil facilities convinced Riyadh that Washington will not come to its aid if it is attacked.
"Given Trump's tendency toward unpredictable shifts in policy, Saudi Arabia may seek to play an influential role by encouraging Trump to adopt a balanced approach that ensures regional stability without triggering escalation with Iran," Mohammad said.
"By subtly guiding U.S. policy toward calibrated sanctions rather than aggressive pressure, Saudi Arabia could help maintain regional security while avoiding the risks of open confrontation," he added.
Israeli Normalization
Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been indefinitely postponed. Saudi officials have recently said that a deal was off until the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Mohammad says Riyadh has significant strategic incentives to normalize relations with Israel, including security and economic cooperation as well as access to U.S. nuclear and defense technology.
But analysts say Saudi Arabia will only resume talks when the Gaza war is over, given the current public sentiment in the Muslim world toward Israel.
"Normalizing relations without achieving tangible rights for Palestinians could weaken Saudi Arabia's normative influence within the Islamic world -- a position they are keen to maintain," Azizi argued.
The Saudis will also have to take into account Iran, which staunchly opposes Saudi normalization with Israel.
"Riyadh may consult with Tehran and seek assurances that normalization with Israel would not heighten hostilities or undermine the balance achieved through recent diplomatic outreach to Iran," Mohammad said.
UN Nuclear Chief Warns Iran That Window On Talks May Be Closing
Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has urged Iran and its global partners to achieve "concrete, tangible, and visible results" in talks over Tehran's nuclear program as the return of Donald Trump to the White House may mean the window for diplomacy is closing.
Speaking to journalists in the Iranian capital on November 14 after a meeting with Iran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, Grossi said pressure was building for movement toward a solution with Iran-backed proxies at war with Israel and Trump, known for his hard-line stance against Tehran, taking over the U.S. presidency in January.
"We know that it is indispensable to get, at this point of time, to get some concrete, tangible, and visible results that will indicate that this joint work is improving (the) situation, is bringing clarification to things, and in a general sense it is moving us away from conflict and ultimately war," Grossi said.
“The fact that international tensions and regional tensions do exist...shows that the space for negotiation and diplomacy is not getting bigger, it is getting smaller," he added.
Grossi's visit takes place about two months ahead of the inauguration of Trump, who during his first term in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from a landmark 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers and reimposed biting sanctions on the Islamic republic.
The 2015 deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had given Iran some limited relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program designed to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Grossi also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran on November 14.
Araqchi, Iran's chief negotiator during the negotiations to reach the JCPOA deal, which barred Tehran from enriching uranium above the level of 3.65 percent, said on X that the talks with Grossi were "important and straightforward."
He vowed to continue Iran's cooperation with the IAEA on nuclear nonproliferation "with courage and good will" and reiterated Tehran's longstanding assertion that its nuclear program was "peaceful."
Araqchi added, however, that Iran would not negotiate "under pressure."
After Washington's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran expanded its nuclear program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
The IAEA and the international community have voiced alarm at reports that Tehran has substantially increased its stocks of uranium enriched to 60 percent -- considerably closer to the 90 percent level needed for a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear expert Eric Brewer told RFE/RL that the IAEA's lack of access to Iran's nuclear sites heightens the risk of it producing more enriched uranium.
"I suspect that to get Iran to provide some information on that front is at the top of Director-General Grossi's list," Brewer said.
He added that while the trip had been scheduled since before the U.S. election, Trump's re-election "will hang over the conversations."
The IAEA chief is expected to hold talks with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian later in the day.
- By Todd Prince and
- Tony Wesolowsky
How Does Marco Rubio, Trump's Pick For Secretary Of State, See The World?
WASHINGTON -- President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Senator Marco Rubio to be his top diplomat as the incoming administration prepares to navigate an increasingly perilous world, with wars raging in Europe and the Middle East and competition heating up with China in the Asia-Pacific.
In choosing Rubio -- a senator known for taking a tough line on many foreign policy issues -- the president-elect is seeking someone who largely shares his views on the most pressing international topics, says Behnam Ben Taleblu, an analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
"Rubio is someone who has ideological and political alignment with Trump on several key national-security issues like great-power competition, countering China, countering the Islamic [Republic of] Iran, and reinstating the maximum-pressure campaign," Taleblu told RFE/RL.
In a wide-ranging interview last week with media before being tapped as secretary of state, Rubio said the decades-long period of unchallenged U.S. global dominance following the collapse of the Soviet Union had ended, replaced by a new Cold War-like era. He warned that the United States can't stretch itself too thin with global commitments, saying Washington must be "pragmatic" in its pursuits abroad.
"We're the most powerful [country], but we too have limited resources…so we have to invest both our time and our money on things that serve our core national interest," Rubio said in a November 7 interview with EWTN, a U.S.-based cable network.
Rubio, a Cuban-American, played an influential role in shaping Trump's policy on Venezuela during the latter's first term as president from 2017 to 2021. The New York Times described Rubio at the time as Trump's "virtual secretary of state for Latin America."
The three-time Florida senator, who challenged Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, comes to the job with ample foreign policy experience, having served on both the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee.
If ultimately confirmed by the Senate, Rubio, 53, would be the first Latino to serve as secretary of state.
And while Latin America will certainly be an important focus for Rubio, it will take a back seat to more pressing U.S. foreign policy concerns, namely China's global rise, Iran's threat to the Middle East, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Priority No. 1: China
When it comes to demands on U.S. military, political, and financial resources, Rubio wants the focus to be on China.
"I think the future of the 21st century is going to largely be defined by what happens in the Indo-Pacific. And I think China would love for us to be bogged down in Europe in a conflict and not focused on what's happening in the Indo-Pacific," Rubio said on November 7.
Rubio, who served as a co-chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China, has consistently advocated taking a hard line on China.
He led efforts to arm Taiwan, the self-governing democracy claimed by Beijing. He called for direct shipments of U.S. munitions and advanced military technologies in hopes of deterring China from attacking the island.
Rubio has also been vocal about Beijing's human rights record, pushed for a U.S. industrial policy to better compete with China, and backed tariffs on Chinese goods.
He sought to ban imports of Chinese goods made with forced labor by Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in western China and prevent China from circumventing Trump-era tariffs by relocating production to Mexico.
NATO And Ukraine
Rubio has repeatedly supported Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in its defensive war against Russia and described Ukrainians as "incredibly brave and strong."
In February 2022, immediately following Russia's full-scale invasion, he co-sponsored the NYET Act in the Senate, which aimed to "bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities" and impose sanctions on Russia.
However, Rubio has also said Russia's war against Ukraine has reached a "stalemate" and "needs to be brought to a conclusion."
He was among a minority of senators who, earlier this year, opposed a foreign-assistance bill that included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. The bill eventually passed in April, bringing total U.S. aid to Ukraine since February 2022 to almost $175 billion -- about as much given by all of Europe combined.
Rubio has highlighted that imbalance, emphasizing that Washington should push Europe to take a larger role in handling its own security issues in order to allow the United States to prioritize challenging China in the Indo-Pacific.
In last week's interview with EWTN, Rubio said it was "unrealistic" to expect the United States to approve tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine every 10 months. He said European members of NATO need to step up their contributions to the alliance.
"Every day in our own country, [we are] grappling with [the question of] how do we provide assistance to Americans, even as we have these defense requirements that we're spending a lot of money on, and these [European NATO] countries are not making that choice," he said.
While Rubio sees Russia as a threat to U.S. security and backs Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, he said Kyiv will have to negotiate an end to the war. Rubio said Russia has just too many resources at its disposal, including weapons and men, to allow it to continue the fighting despite suffering extraordinary losses.
Iran: 'No Appeasement'
In the Middle East, Rubio has long taken a tough stand on Iran, describing its theocratic government as a "terrorist regime" for financing groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, both designated terrorist organizations by the United States.
As a senator, he was a fierce critic of U.S. President Barack Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.
Critics of the deal argued it empowered Iran, offering too much relief from sanctions without guarantees it wouldn't someday produce a nuclear bomb. In 2018, Trump, who was then president, pulled the United States out of the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran.
More recently, Rubio co-authored three bills punishing Iran that were signed into law this year. The bills authorize placing sanctions on Iranian oil exports and top Iranian leaders for human rights abuses, as well as foreign entities and governments supporting Hamas. An Iranian client, Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, triggering a regional war that threatens to engulf more states.
Rubio in September criticized the Biden administration for dragging its feet on enforcing the Iranian oil sanctions, which are aimed at crippling the government's finances. It has also failed to move forward on the human rights sanctions.
Depending on what the incoming administration is faced with in Iran when it takes office, analyst Taleblu says -- noting the volatile situation in the Middle East -- he would expect a Rubio-led State Department to make good on enforcement of the sanction bills.
A vocal supporter of Israel, Rubio has backed the country's right to defend itself from Iranian threats. Following Tehran's missile strikes on Israel on October 1, Rubio publicly backed an asymmetrical response.
Afghanistan
Rubio has also taken a hard line on the Taliban, arguing the militant Islamist group should be described as a "terrorist organization" by Washington. In March, the Florida senator introduced a bill in the Senate calling for an end to an end to U.S. aid to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, arguing that some of that money could end up with "terrorist groups."
In remarks to the Senate, Rubio said, "A Taliban-controlled Afghanistan poses a direct threat to U.S. national-security interests and to our allies in the Middle East and Central Asia."
Reid Standish contributed to this report
Journalist Commits Suicide In Protest Over Arrests In Iran
Kianoosh Sanjari, a journalist and political activist, has committed suicide to protest numerous arrests and interrogations of himself and other political activists. A relative of Sanjari confirmed the news in an interview with RFE/RL on November 13. Friends of Sanjari also confirmed his death in posts on X. Since returning to Tehran in 2015 to care for his elderly mother, Sanjari was repeatedly summoned and arrested by the security and intelligence agencies of the Islamic republic. Hours before committing suicide, Sanjari announced his decision to end his life on X. After an ultimatum demanding the Iranian government release four activists and journalists by a specified time was not met, Sanjari tweeted again: "My life will end after this tweet but let's not forget that we die for the love of life, not death. I wish that one day Iranians will wake up and overcome slavery." To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By RFE/RL
FBI Arrests Alleged Leaker Of U.S. Intelligence Related To Israel's Attack Plans Against Iran
The U.S. Justice Department has charged a man for allegedly leaking highly classified U.S. intelligence about Israel's plans for retaliation against Iran, according to U.S. media reports on November 13. The reports said that Asif W. Rahman was indicted earlier this month for willfully transmitting national defense information. He was arrested on November 12 in Cambodia by the FBI and was to appear in court in Guam. Court documents indicate that he was employed by the U.S. government. According to a person familiar with his employment, he was employed by the CIA. This employment gave him a top-secret security clearance and allowed him to access sensitive information. The New York Times, which first reported the story, said that Rahman was indicted on a charge related to the posting of the intelligence on Telegram in mid-October. The documents posted included Israeli plans for moving munitions and Israeli Air Force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says It's Confident Oil Exports Will Continue Despite Trump Election
Iran says it has measures in place to ensure it will continue producing and exporting oil even if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran once he takes office in January.
During his first term in office in 2017-21, Trump withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and reimposed sanctions as part of his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran.
As a result, Iran’s oil production dropped from 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.1 million bpd, while its exports plummeted to between 200,000 and 500,000 bpd from 2.5 million bpd.
But both production and exports have picked up in recent years despite U.S. sanctions, with Iran’s oil output reaching around 3.2m bpd. Exports, meanwhile, have hit a multiyear high of 1.7 million bpd.
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told reporters on November 13 that Iran has mechanisms in place “to continue selling our oil” regardless of who is in power in the United States.
“We have tried-and-tested methods and don’t have serious concerns about [selling oil],” he said, according to Iranian state-aligned media.
Without offering details, the oil minister said, “necessary measures have been taken by our colleagues in the oil sector in preparation for what is to come and there is no reason to worry.”
Trump is expected to launch a new-look "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic republic once he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Iran boosted its oil sales by circumventing sanctions through a variety of means, exporting mostly to China, which does not recognize U.S. measures against Iran.
The tactic involves the ship-to-ship transfer of oil, middlemen, clandestine money transfers, and the rebranding of the oil to mask its Iranian origin.
Iranian crude makes up about 13 percent of oil imports by China, the world's biggest purchaser of the commodity. Beijing says the purchases conform to international law.
Netanyahu Tells Iranians Another Attack On Israel Will 'Cripple' Their Economy
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says another attack on Israel would paralyze the Islamic republic's economy and cost billions of dollars that could be spent to the benefit of ordinary Iranians. In his second video addressed directly to Iranians in the last two months, which was released in English with Farsi subtitles on November 12, Netanyahu said that Iran's October 1 missile attack cost it $2.3 billion dollars, "valuable money that the Islamic republic wasted" as the "damage of that attack on Israel was insignificant." He added that the Iranian government is "obsessed" with the destruction of Israel but its theocracy fears its own people more than Israel. Neither the people of Israel nor ordinary Iranians want war, he said. Some analysts said the video could be a warning that if Iran were to attack again, Israel would hit back hard in an attempt to cause major damage to Iran's economy. There was no immediate reaction to the video from Iran. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
Targeted Activist Calls Failure Of Iranian Assassination Plot 'Pleasing'
Iranian-American human rights activist Masih Alinejad says she derives joy from the failure of alleged plots by the Islamic republic to kidnap and assassinate her.
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill Alinejad and President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election. Iran has rejected the allegation.
"When the Islamic republic is defeated, disgraced, and embarrassed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI], it has no choice but to deny," Alinejad, 48, said in comments to RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, or head scarf, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021. In 2022 a man was also arrested with a rifle outside her home.
“The Islamic republic has been disgraced three times…. The humiliation of [Iranian authorities] is truly pleasing,” she said.
The FBI informed Alinejad of the suspected Iranian plot to kill her shortly before the court documents were unsealed, she said, recalling that she was "shocked" to learn about the details.
Two men arrested by the FBI were planning to target Alinejad at Fairfield University in Connecticut, where she was scheduled to appear.
The Justice Department alleges the two men spent months surveilling Alinejad and earlier this year traveled to the university campus and took photos of the premises.
"It is shocking how brazenly the Islamic republic can savagely plan to assassinate someone in another country," Alinejad said.
Iran has long been accused of targeting dissidents abroad, either to kidnap them or kill them.
Rights groups say exiled opposition activist Ruhollah Zam was abducted in 2019 before being executed in Iran a year later.
In 2020, Tehran said it had arrested Iranian-German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd and later sentenced him to death. Sharmahd's family insists he was kidnapped while through the United Arab Emirates. Iranian authorities claim Sharmahd died in prison last month before being executed.
Alinejad, who is visiting Germany and recently met with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said her message to Germany, the United States, and all Western countries is to "protect your borders and democracy instead of protecting me so that the Islamic republic's terrorists can't enter and plot assassinations on Western soil."
She said symbolic gestures by the West in support of Iranian protesters and dissidents "is not enough" to dissuade Iranian authorities from targeting critics abroad. Instead, she argued, severing diplomatic ties and "extensive support" for protesters inside Iran would be more effective.
Written based on an interview by Nasrin Afshar of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Saudi Armed Forces General Travels to Iran In Rare High-Level Visit
The general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia's armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, met his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Baqeri, in Tehran during a rare visit on November 10.
Iran's official IRNA news agency said they discussed the development of defense diplomacy and bilateral cooperation without offering any details.
Iranian media said Baqeri had discussed regional developments and defense cooperation with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman al-Saud last year.
Ruwaili is only the second high-profile Saudi official to travel to Tehran since Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations after seven years following Chinese-brokered talks in March 2023. Previously, Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Iran in June 2023.
Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia severed ties with Shi'a-dominated Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic compounds in Tehran and Mashhad were attacked by protesters over Riyadh's execution of Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.
The trip comes days after the election of Donald Trump, whose second term as U.S. president begins in January. He has pledged to bring peace to the Middle East, where U.S. ally Israel is engaged in wars against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the timing of the trip was significant because it comes as various countries are preparing for a second Trump presidency.
He said the Saudis' decision to send their top military official to Tehran "is a signal that they are committed" to the detente process that started last year and that "they don't want Trump's election to jeopardize the recently improving relations with Iran."
Separately, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman on the phone and discussed expanding bilateral relations, according to Pezeshkian's office.
Trump had good relations with Persian Gulf Arab states in his first tenure in office and worked on normalizing relations between Arab states and Iran's archfoe, Israel.
Saudi Arabia has not normalized relations with Israel but Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is said to have discussed the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia since 2021.
In another sign of warming relations, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it held military drills with Iran in the Sea of Oman.
- By Reuters
UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief To Visit Iran On November 13
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi will visit Iran on November 13 and start consultations with Iranian officials the following day, state media reported on November 10. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that he might head to Iran in the coming days to discuss its disputed nuclear program and that he expected to work cooperatively with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Long-standing issues between Iran, the IAEA, and Western powers include Tehran barring several uranium-enrichment experts from IAEA inspection teams in the country and its failure for years to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Iran has also stepped up nuclear activity since 2019, after then-President Trump abandoned a 2015 deal Iran reached with world powers under which it curbed enrichment -- seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear weapons capability -- and restored tough U.S. sanctions on the Islamic republic.
- By Reuters
Iranian Foreign Minister Denies Plot To Kill Trump
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi denied U.S. charges that Tehran was linked to an alleged plot to kill Donald Trump and called on November 9 for confidence-building between the two hostile countries. "A new scenario is fabricated....As a killer does not exist in reality, scriptwriters are brought in to manufacture a third-rate comedy," Araqchi said in a post on X. He was referring to an alleged plot Washington said was ordered by Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to assassinate Trump, who won the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and takes office in January.
- By AFP
Iran Urges Trump To Change 'Maximum Pressure' Policy
Iran signaled an openness toward Donald Trump on November 9, calling on the U.S. president-elect to adopt new policies toward it after Washington accused Tehran of involvement in a plot to kill him. Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Trump to reassess the policy of "maximum pressure" he employed against the Islamic republic during his first term. "Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past," Zarif told reporters. His remarks came after the United States accused Iran of conspiring to assassinate Trump. The Foreign Ministry on November 9 described the American accusations as "totally unfounded."
After Iranian Student Jailed For Stripping, London Activist Shows Solidarity In Her Underwear (Video)
A university student in Tehran was detained and sent to a psychiatric ward after stripping down to her underwear in public. In a demonstration of support, activist Rokhsareh Mohammad Khani took similar action in London, filming herself in minimal clothing in a central square. Khani said she wanted to highlight the extreme nature of Iran's dress code and the penalties it imposes on women.
- By RFE/RL
Court Documents Allege Iranian-Backed Plot To Assassinate Trump, Dissidents
The U.S. Justice Department on November 8 unsealed criminal charges that include details of a plot allegedly backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the November 5 election.
A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) instructed a contact to develop a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, the Justice Department said in a news release.
Three men, including an Iranian national, were charged in the criminal complaint in connection with their alleged involvement in a separate plot to murder a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin.
Two of the three men -- Carlisle Rivera, 49, and Jonathon Loadholt, 36, both of New York City -- made an initial appearance in court on November 7 and were ordered detained pending trial, the department said.
The third man, identified as Farjad Shakeri, remains at large and is believed to be in Iran.
"The charges announced today expose Iran's continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders, and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran," FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the news release.
The IRGC "has been conspiring with criminals and hitmen to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won't be tolerated," he added.
Shakeri allegedly recruited Rivera and Loadhold to follow and kill a prominent Iranian-American. The target was not named in the news release or in court documents but appears to be dissident journalist Masih Alinejad.
Alinejad said on X that she was shocked to have learned of the plot from the FBI.
"I also learned that the person assigned to assassinate @realDonaldTrump was also assigned to kill me on U.S. soil," she said on X, calling on Trump to be tough on terrorism. "The Islamic Republic understands only one language: the language of pressure," she said.
Alinejad, who has criticized Iran's laws requiring women to wear a hijab, was the target of a kidnapping plot in 2021, and in 2022 a man was arrested with a rifle outside her home.
The Justice Department said Shakeri was an IRGC "asset" who immigrated to the United States as a child and was deported around 2008 after serving 14 years in prison for robbery.
According to the criminal complaint, Shakeri allegedly disclosed the plot to assassinate Trump in telephone conversations with FBI agents in recent months.
Shakeri spoke with FBI agents because he was hoping to obtain a sentence reduction for a person who is imprisoned in the United States, the court document said.
Shakeri told the FBI he was approached by an IRGC official about organizing the assassination of Trump. He planned to use a network of criminal associates he met in prison, including Loadholt and Rivera, to supply the IRGC with operatives to conduct surveillance and assassinations of IRGC targets, the Justice Department said.
Shakeri promised to pay $100,000 in the murder-for-hire plot described in the document in which Alinejad appears to be the target.
The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations of U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, according to the press release.
"In particular, Shakeri has informed law enforcement that he was tasked on October 7, 2024, with providing a plan to kill President-elect Donald J. Trump," the Justice Department said.
Shakeri was unable to draft a plan within the time span requested by the IRGC official, and the official then told him Iran would pause its plan until after the presidential election because the official believed Trump would lose and it would be easier to assassinate him afterward, the criminal complaint said.
The United States has repeatedly accused Iran of seeking to assassinate U.S. officials in retaliation for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who died in a U.S. military drone strike in Iraq in 2020.
In his first term as president, Trump withdrew the United States from an international nuclear agreement negotiated between Iran and nuclear powers, imposed new sanctions on the country, and classified the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
Shakeri, Rivera, and Loadholt have all been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison; and money-laundering conspiracy, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Shakeri faces additional charges related to terrorism.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
The Azadi Briefing: What Will Trump's Election Victory Mean For Afghanistan?
Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
The unrecognized Taliban government in Afghanistan said it wants to open a “new chapter” with the United States following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 presidential election.
In a statement, the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped the “upcoming U.S. administration will take realistic steps to foster tangible progress in the relationship between the two countries.”
During his first stint in power from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration signed a deal with the Taliban that paved the way for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
The agreement ended America’s longest-ever war. But critics said the accord led to the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power.
During the campaign, Trump defended the 2020 accord as a “very good agreement.” But he blamed President Joe Biden for the deadly and chaotic U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.
Why It's Important: Trump’s return to the White House is likely to have repercussions for Afghanistan, where the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is unfolding.
The United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid to the country, having provided around $3 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. There has been a major drop in donor funding over the past two years.
“The sharp decline in humanitarian funding seems likely to worsen under a Trump presidency,” said Graeme Smith, senior Afghanistan analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Hameed Hakimi of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said Trump could place conditions on U.S. aid, a move that would “increase the financial and humanitarian vulnerability of the Afghan people.”
Experts said it is unlikely that the incoming Trump administration would reverse current U.S. policy by arming anti-Taliban groups inside Afghanistan or recognizing the Taliban’s government.
“The Republicans will do everything possible to keep Afghanistan out of the headlines,” said Smith.
What's Next: Afghanistan is unlikely to be a priority for the Trump administration.
But a major attack on the United States or its allies emanating from Afghan soil could change that.
What To Keep An Eye On
An Indian diplomat traveled to Kabul for talks with senior Taliban officials on November 4-5.
The Taliban’s defense and foreign ministers held meetings with JP Singh, who oversees the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran division of India’s External Affairs Ministry.
“Both sides declared their common desire” to expand bilateral relations, mainly in humanitarian cooperation, said a statement by the Taliban’s Defense Ministry.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the two sides also discussed “how the Chabahar Port can be used for imports and exports.”
Over the past two decades, India has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port and built a highway linking it to western Afghanistan.
In March, the Taliban announced that it would invest around $35 million in Chabahar Port, a move aimed at decreasing landlocked Afghanistan's dependence on neighboring Pakistan.
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan, longtime allies, have deteriorated sharply in recent years.
Why It's Important: Singh’s visit to Afghanistan signals New Delhi’s interest in developing relations with the Taliban.
India was a key backer of the Western-backed Afghan government. But since the Taliban’s return to power, it has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the extremist group.
The Taliban’s tense relations with Pakistan has offered India an opportunity to boost its influence in Kabul.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
- By Kian Sharifi
Will Trump's Election Trigger An Iran Policy Of 'Maximum Pressure 2.0'?
Before the U.S. presidential election, Iran dismissed the vote as irrelevant.
But former President Donald Trump’s stunning victory on November 5 could have major ramifications for Tehran, experts say.
During his first stint in power, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs and imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran.
Iran will “have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security…in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a [second] Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
'Maximum Pressure 2.0'
From 2017-2021, the Trump administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump’s return to the White House could see a policy of “maximum pressure 2.0,” said Sabet, adding that the aim could be “containment and regime weakening.”
Sabet said Trump could try to devise “a kind of policy in perpetuity” on Iran that would be difficult to undo by future U.S. administrations.
In a sign of what is to come, Brian Hook, who oversaw the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, is expected to lead the president-elect’s transition team at the State Department. U.S. media reported that Hook could be considered for the role of secretary of state.
During the campaign, Trump sent mixed messages on Iran. He threatened to blow the country to “smithereens” but also said he was open to talks with Tehran. Trump also said he wants Iran to be “successful,” although he added that Tehran “can't have a nuclear weapon.”
Sabet said Iran has grown more adept at evading U.S. sanctions since Trump’s first term and its nuclear program has become more advanced following the abrogation of the nuclear deal.
But experts say Iran will still feel the bite of tougher U.S. policies. The Iranian economy is in free fall, while the clerical establishment has faced growing domestic unrest and threats from archenemy Israel.
The Israeli Factor
Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks in recent months that have raised fears of an all-out regional war.
The tit-for-tat attacks have come as Israel fights a multifront war against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.
Trump has a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect.
During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of U.S. policy. He also moved the U.S. embassy to the contested city.
Sabet said Iran’s “security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S.”
The View From Iran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump's election victory “makes no difference” to Tehran, which has “prioritized developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.”
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said Iran had “bitter experiences with various U.S. governments' past policies and approaches.” But he added that Trump’s return to the White House was a chance “to review previous wrong policies.”
Some conservative Iranian lawmakers and media outlets have done little to hide their disdain for Trump.
Hard-line lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X on November 6 before taking down his post. The conservative Hamshahri newspaper decried “the return of the murderer,” alluding to Trump’s role in Soleimani’s assassination.
Others have urged Iranian decision-makers to consider negotiating with Trump, especially as the reformist Pezeshkian pledged to engage the West when he took office in July.
Tehran-based political analyst Hamid Asefi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical establishment hope that Trump will help topple the Islamic republic. But he said that was “wishful thinking” because his Iran policy has never been about regime change.
“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran can easily strike a deal with Trump, as he is a dealmaker,” he added.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story
Israel Sends Planes To Evacuate Soccer Fans After 'Willful Attack' In Amsterdam
Israel sent several chartered planes to Amsterdam to bring back Israeli soccer fans after they were attacked following a match on November 7 by what Mayor Femke Halsema described as "anti-Semitic hit-and-run squads."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the incidents "anti-Semitic attacks" as his office announced that the Israeli airlines El Al and Israir have set up special flights for free on November 8 and 9 to do the job.
El Al said it was sending six planes to bring the fans home, and Israeli airport authorities said later on November 8 that the first plane had landed.
Amsterdam police said that 62 people were detained following the violence, with 10 in custody on November 8 in connection with the clashes -- which left five people hospitalized -- in the center of Amsterdam between young locals and Israeli supporters who had come to watch Maccabi Tel Aviv's game against Ajax Amsterdam in the Europa League competition.
"This is a very dark moment for the city, for which I am deeply ashamed," Halsema told a news conference. "Anti-Semitic criminals attacked and assaulted visitors to our city, in hit-and-run actions," she said.
Dutch authorities said there was no concrete threat to Israeli soccer fans before the game and that it was not clear how or precisely when the violence began.
Peter Holla, the city's acting police chief, told a news conference that the Israeli fans were "willfully attacked."
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned "anti-Semitic" violence against Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam, calling the attacks "despicable" throwbacks to dark moments in history.
"The anti-Semitic attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam are despicable and echo dark moments in history when Jews were persecuted," Biden said on X.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and other world leader joined Biden in condemning the violence.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks as "vile" and said she discussed them with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.
"Outraged by last night's vile attacks targeting Israeli citizens in Amsterdam," von der Leyen said in a post on X. "I strongly condemn these unacceptable acts. Antisemitism has absolutely no place in Europe. And we are determined to fight all forms of hatred."
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar flew to Amsterdam for impromptu meetings with the Dutch government and far-right leader Geert Wilders, and Amsterdam banned demonstrations for three days.
Police said fans had left the stadium on November 7 without incident after the game was won 5-0 by Ajax, but various clashes in the city center were reported during the night.
Video posted online also purported to show Israeli fans chanting anti-Arab slogans in the streets ahead of the game.
Maccabi fans are known to have used similar chants in Israel at recent matches there.
Earlier, a pro-Palestinian protest against Maccabi's visit scheduled to take place near the stadium was banned by Dutch authorities for security reasons amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Anti-Israeli protests have been held in various parts of the world, including in Western Europe amid Israel's war in the Gaza Strip against Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the EU, following the group's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people.
The conflict has spilled outside of Gaza and into southern Lebanon against Iran-backed Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Schoof said he was "horrified" by the incidents. which he called "completely unacceptable." He said he told Netanyahu that those who are guilty would be "identified and prosecuted."
Netanyahu told Schoof that he "views the premeditated anti-Semitic attack against Israeli citizens with the utmost seriousness and requested increased security for the Jewish community in the Netherlands," the Israeli prime minister's office said.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said he had talked to Dutch King Willem-Alexander on the phone, who had voiced "deep horror and shock over the criminal acts committed."
The Israeli Embassy in the United States said on X that "hundreds" of Maccabi fans were "ambushed and attacked in Amsterdam tonight as they left the stadium following a game against Ajax."
"The mob who targeted these innocent Israelis has proudly shared their violent acts on social media," the embassy said in its message accompanied by a video of violent clashes in the city.
Israel also said it had banned members of its military from traveling to the Netherlands.
What Can The World Expect From Trump 2.0?
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump made big promises about what would be in store if he reclaimed the White House.
"With your support, we'll bring back our nation's strength, dominance, prosperity and pride," Trump said two weeks before Election Day. "This will be America's new golden age."
Now that Trump has won a second term as president, what might be expected from his incoming administration?
The answer to that question depends a lot on who you ask. Trump's supporters believe he will "make America great again," at home and abroad. His detractors have warned that Trump will undermine democracy in the United States.
War And Peace
The way the United States exerts its influence around the world is likely to change.
Trump has said he could end Russia's war in Ukraine "in 24 hours." With Israel involved in a two-front war in the Middle East against Iranian-backed armed groups, Trump has called on Israel to "finish the job."
Peter Skerry, professor of political science at Boston College, said he expects Trump to "push for some sort of settlement" between Moscow and Kyiv that he predicted will "mean big concessions on the part of Ukraine."
What Trump will do regarding Israel is much less clear, Skerry says, but he said that "he'll be extremely supportive of Israel" while at the same time trying to revive the Abraham Accords that aim for Arab-Israeli normalization.
China, with which Trump launched a trade war during his first term in office, is a wild card. Trump has pledged to introduce more steep tariffs on products made in China if Beijing were to "go into Taiwan."
He has previously said he would not have to use U.S. military force to prevent a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan due to his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Global Footprint
In his four years as president, Trump pushed for NATO members to meet their required levels of defense spending, goals that most have since met.
Trump also oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the UN cultural body UNESCO, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, the Iran nuclear deal worked out with world powers, the Paris Agreement on mitigating the effects of climate change, and withheld funding for the World Health Organization due to its response to the coronavirus outbreak.
The outgoing Biden administration made a point to restore U.S. influence in such agreements and institutions, but now many predict another reversal under Trump.
Skerry said Trump is a "single-minded, self-interested actor" who is focused on domestic issues. It would not be surprising to see Trump "get back on the track" of limiting Washington's role in some global institutions, he said.
Keith Naughton, co-founder of the U.S.-based public-affairs firm Silent Majority Strategies, said that "Trump will want to go it alone more." But he added that the U.S. Congress was unlikely "to go along" and will put up resistance.
Payback Time
Trump has frequently lashed out against his political adversaries, referring to them as the "enemy from within" and suggesting they could "very easily handled" by the military in the event of postelection chaos.
The comments led outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris, who ran and lost against Trump, to say just before the vote that Trump was "obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and out for unchecked power."
At home, the U.S. judicial system is one area where Trump is expected to clean house, in large part owing to multiple criminal cases related to his first term, including regarding alleged election interference and attempts to derail the transfer of power following his 2020 election loss.
Trump has also said that he would "absolutely" pardon his supporters imprisoned for their role in the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol in a failed attempt to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden's victory.
More broadly, many predict Trump will use "Project 2025" -- an initiative conceived by the right-wing Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington to "take down the deep state" -- as a template for his policies.
Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 during his campaign, claiming he did not know who was behind it, but investigations have found that at least 140 people who worked in the previous Trump administration are involved.
"Trump likes to talk tough, but rarely follows through," Naughton said. "Any retribution will be haphazard and from staff members. I think there will be a lot of changes at the Department of Justice."
- By RFE/RL
Trump Wins U.S. Presidency: Reactions From Our Region
Our teams bring you the latest updates, reactions, and insights into what the U.S. elections mean for our audiences. With Russia's war on Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and a decline in democratic values, the outcome of these elections will reverberate far beyond U.S. borders.
Iranian Scholar Calls Psych Ward Admission Of Woman Who Disrobed In Protest 'Illegal'
Iranian religious scholar and civil activist Sedigheh Vasmaghi said there is no legal basis for admitting a young woman into psychiatric care because she took her clothes off in apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university.
"Even if someone suffers from mental health disorders, diagnosing that is not up to judicial authorities or the police, not to mention that admitting someone into a psychiatric facility should not be a punishment," Vasmaghi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda on November 5.
"Punishments need to be legal…. Whoever [admitted her] has committed an illegal act," said Vasmaghi, who lives in Iran.
Videos emerged on social media on November 2 showing a young woman stripped to her underwear and walking around outside a university in Tehran.
The circumstances that led to her taking off her clothes remain unclear, but witnesses say she was harassed by the university's security officers over what she had been wearing. One video showed officers violently forcing the unidentified woman into a car.
Reports in Iranian media later alleged she was suffering from mental illness and that she was taken to a psychiatric hospital.
Rights groups have condemned her treatment and demanded her immediate release.
Amnesty International on November 3 said, "Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer."
The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights on November 4 decried what it described as the Islamic republic's use of "psychiatric hospitals as tools of repression to delegitimize acts of protest and silence dissenting voices."
Echoing the same sentiment, Vasmaghi said Iranian authorities had a track record of sending protesters to psychiatric wards to "belittle and punish" them.
"Women have made their decision and they will not retreat" from demanding the freedom to choose how to dress, the activist said.
"The authorities must accept that and stop doing things that increase tensions in society," she added.
Written by Kian Sharifi based on an interview by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
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