Iran
Kazakh Secret Agents Held Over Sarsenbaev's Killing
Mourners at the funeral of Altynbek Sarsenbaev, 15 February (RFE/RL) 21 February 2006 -- Kazakhstan's secret service says five of its members have been detained on suspicion of involvement in the killing of the opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaev.
The five are members of an elite unit of the National Security Committee.
The announcement comes one day after Interior Minister Baurzhan Mukhamedjanov said five suspects had confessed the murder. He added that the police are also holding a sixth person, who is the suspected of masterminding the killing.
The body of Sarsenbaev, the co-chair of the Naghyz Ak Zhol (True Bright Path) party, was found along with those of his bodyguard and a driver on the outskirts of Almaty on 13 February. They had all been shot.
Opposition figures suspect the authorities had a role in the killing. The Kazakh government denies this.
(AFP, Reuters)
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- By Kian Sharifi
Yemen's Houthis Grow Bolder Despite US Bombing Campaign
Since March 15, the United States has intensified its aerial campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, claiming to have hit more than 1,000 targets.
Dubbed “Operation Rough Rider,” the campaign is intended to halt Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and ratchet up pressure on Tehran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.
But despite the scale of the strikes, analysts question whether the effort has made any lasting impact.
“The Houthis remain undeterred,” said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy.
He noted that, while some Houthi infrastructure has been destroyed and personnel killed, the group appears to have turned the campaign to its advantage.
“Any losses are likely short-term and temporary,” he told RFE/RL, citing a boost in Houthi recruitment and fundraising.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes, added that the Houthis’ continued ability to launch attacks -- particularly against Israel and US drones -- undermines US claims of degrading their capabilities.
“It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9,” Binnie said.
A recent admission by the US Navy that an F/A-18 fighter fell off the USS Harry S. Truman during a maneuver to avoid a Houthi strike has only reinforced perceptions that the group remains a potent threat.
Meanwhile, the group has continued launching missiles toward Israel, claiming responsibility on May 2 for two strikes that prompted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to intercept both and activate nationwide sirens.
US Central Command insists that the campaign has degraded the pace and effectiveness of the group's attacks.
"Ballistic missile launches have dropped by 69 percent. Additionally, attacks from one way attack drones have decreased by 55%," CENTCOM said in a statement on April 27. "Iran undoubtedly continues to provide support to the Houthis. The Houthis can only continue to attack our forces with the backing of the Iranian regime."
Have The Attacks Impacted Relations With Iran?
Analysts warn that the strikes may be having the opposite effect on regional dynamics, driving the Houthis closer to Tehran rather than isolating them.
The group -- formally known as the Ansarallah movement and designated a terrorist organization by the United States -- is a key member of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a network of nonstate actors that has faced setbacks over the past year.
But since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the Houthis have elevated their role within that alliance, claiming attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians.
While their growing prominence has afforded them some autonomy, experts say they remain deeply reliant on Iran for weapons and strategic support.
“You know very well what the US military is capable of -- and you were warned,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X on May 1, addressing Iran directly. “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”
Still, Clarke argues that the strikes may have only deepened the Houthi-Iran alliance.
“If anything, the strikes have pushed the Houthis closer to Iran,” he said, casting doubt on whether a future nuclear agreement would change Tehran’s behavior.
Binnie echoed Clarke’s skepticism. “US officials might hope the campaign pressures Iran,” he said, “but it’s difficult to say if that is happening.”
A fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States was initially slated for May 3 in Rome but has been postponed due to what Omani mediators described as “logistical reasons.”
With weeks of sustained bombing behind it, the United States appears no closer to deterring Houthi attacks or weakening their political backing -- raising hard questions about the strategic value of the campaign.
- By Kian Sharifi
The Economic Fallout From Deadly Blast At Iran's 'Golden Gateway' Of Trade
Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at the potential economic impact of a massive explosion at Iran's Shahid Rajaei port and whether it will impact Iranian trade and hopes for foreign investment.
What You Need To Know
• Trade Braces For 'Shock' After Port Explosion: The massive explosion at Iran's Shahid Rajaei port on April 26 is unlikely to cripple Iran's economy, but it poses a "big shock" to the country's international trade, analysts say. Iranian authorities say the blast was caused by "noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence," but it remains unclear what exactly caused the blast that killed at least 70 people and injured more than 1,000.
• Nuclear Talks In Rome Postponed: A fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran was postponed. Mediated by Oman, the talks have reached a crucial phase where bridging differences on key issues were expected to be discussed. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in a statement on May 1 that the decision to postpone the talks in Rome had been taken based on the proposal of Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who cited "logistical reasons" for the delay. He said the meeting was being rescheduled. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said the meeting had never been confirmed. The United States expects another round of talks "will take place in the near future," she said.
• Hijab Warning Text Message Raises Eyebrows: Some women in Tehran have received a text message from a state institution telling them that they have been observed in the city not complying with the mandatory hijab. The move has sparked widespread criticism, with many questioning how these individuals were identified and how their private phone numbers were obtained.
The Big Issue
Scaring Off Investors?
Analysts say the explosion will have major ramifications for not only Iranian trade through its busiest port but will also hinder the country's ability to attract investment.
The explosion obliterated over 10,000 shipping containers and set fuel storage tanks ablaze, causing a temporary suspension of foreign trade.
Paris-based economist Djamchid Assadi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that while the explosion was unlikely to cripple Iran's sanctions-hit economy, it would have a "very negative" effect on both the supply of goods and securing foreign investment.
He said, regardless of whether the accident was caused by incompetence or sabotage, it raises questions about the level of safety in Iran's business environment.
"How can you hope to attract investment when you cannot ensure safety and security in that port?" Assadi argued.
While the authorities insist operations at the port have resumed, Azerbaijan-based energy and economy expert Dalga Khatinoglu said it will be a while before the port can return to business as usual.
"This will be a big shock to Iran's international trade," he told Radio Farda.
Why It Matters: The Shahid Rajaei port in Bandar Abbas is located near the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's oil trade passes.
Commonly dubbed Iran's "golden gateway" to international commerce by Iranian media, Shahid Rajaei port manages about 85 percent of the nation's container throughput, over half of its overall trade, and 70 percent of its transit shipments.
What's Being Said: Hossein Zafari, a spokesman for Iran's crisis management agency, suggested the explosion may have resulted from improperly stored chemical materials within containers at the port.
Publicly available data indicate that shipments of chemical components used in missile propellant were received from China at the port in February and March. Nonetheless, a Defense Ministry spokesman has refuted claims that any military-related cargo, including missile fuel, was present at the explosion site.
Renowned Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi described the explosion as a symbol of "the collapse of a regime that has led Iran into ruin for nearly half a century" and demanded a referendum to "restore sovereignty to the people."
Expert Opinion: "There will be a big shock, particularly if administrative buildings in the terminal are also destroyed, which will cause a serious disruption to imports and exports," Khatinoglu said.
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here . It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.
Iran Executes Alleged Israeli Spy Tied To Killing Of Senior Military Officer
Iran’s judiciary said it has executed Mohsen Langarneshin for allegedly spying for Israel and being involved in the high-profile assassination of an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) colonel in 2022.
In a statement on April 30, the judiciary described Langarneshin as a “high-ranking spy” for Israel who had “supported several Mossad operations in Iran.”
In addition to his alleged involvement in the killing of IRGC Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei in May 2022, Langarneshin was also accused of playing a role in a January 2023 drone attack on a military factory in Isfahan.
Iran’s judiciary also claimed that Langaranshin had met twice with senior Mossad intelligence officers -- once in Georgia and once in Nepal -- and described him as a “highly trained operative” who had undergone “extensive espionage training and was fully capable of carrying out assigned missions.”
Foreign-based Iranian human rights-focused news outlet HRANA said on April 28 that Langarneshin had made three separate requests for a retrial, all of which were rejected.
The HRANA report said he was moved to solitary confinement in the Ghezel Hesar Prison on April 29, a day before his execution, and allowed a final visit with his parents.
His father, Masud Langaranshin, released a video stating that his son had been sentenced to death “without a fair trial” and that the case was riddled with “inconsistencies and legal flaws.”
Quoting a source close to Langaranshin, HRANA claimed that “he was pressured during detention to make forced confessions” implicating him in the assassination of Sayyad Khodaei.
A shadowy figure in the IRGC, Sayyad Khodaei was killed by gunmen outside his home in Tehran. Israeli media have described Sayyad Khodaei as a key figure behind “plots to kill Israelis and Jews” and to attack Jewish interests around the world.
In an annual report on human rights, Amnesty International said on April 29 that Iran "arbitrarily" executed hundreds of people last year as authorities "used the death penalty as a tool of political repression against protesters, dissidents and ethnic minorities."
Iran Port Explosion Death Toll Hits 70 As Authorities Blame 'Negligence'
The death toll from a massive explosion at Iran’s key Shahid Rajaei port has hit 70, local authorities said, as the interior minister blamed “negligence” for the incident, which injured more than 1,000 people.
Eskandar Momeni told Iranian state television late on April 28 that “noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence” had caused the incident, though it was not immediately clear what started the fire at the hazardous and chemical materials storage depot.
Momeni said several “culprits have been identified and summoned” but did not share further details.
Mehrdad Hassanzadeh, the director of the crisis management office in the southern Hormozgan Province where the port is located, told state television that most of the injured had already been released from hospital.
On April 27, a day after the explosion happened, Hossein Zafari, a spokesman for Iran's crisis management organization, appeared to blame the blast on poor storage of chemicals in containers at the port.
Open-source data suggests that Iran took shipments of chemical ingredients from China used in missile fuel at the port in February and March. However, an Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman has denied that any cargo used for military use, including missile fuel, was being stored at the blast site.
The New York Times quoted an unnamed source with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as saying the substance that exploded was sodium perchlorate, a key component in solid missile fuel.
Amid mounting criticism of officials over the incident, renowned Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi called for a “free and transparent referendum under international supervision to restore sovereignty to the people.”
In a post on Instagram, Panahi described the explosion as a symbol of “the collapse of a regime that has led Iran into ruin for nearly half a century.”
- By RFE/RL
Iran Accuses Israel's Netanyahu Of Trying To Derail Nuclear Talks
Iran's top diplomat has accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to dictate US policy toward Iran after the premier renewed his call for the full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program.
Iranian and US negotiators concluded a third round of indirect talks over Iran's nuclear program on April 26, with a fourth round scheduled for May 3, likely in a European country.
Speaking in Jerusalem a day after the talks, Netanyahu said any deal with Iran must aim for the complete dismantling of the nuclear program and also address Tehran's missile capabilities.
"The real deal that works is the deal which removes Iran's capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said, adding that a good agreement should also "bring in the prevention of ballistic missiles."
Writing on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said it was "striking…how brazenly Netanyahu is now dictating what President Trump can and cannot do in his diplomacy with Iran."
The Iranian diplomat maintained that his country was "strong and confident enough" to "thwart any attempt by malicious external actors to sabotage its foreign policy or dictate its course."
"We can only hope our US counterparts are equally steadfast," he added.
Netanyahu's comment came after a deadly explosion hit Iran’s Shahid Rajaei port, killing at least 46 people and injuring more than 1,000.
Some speculate that the explosion was linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make ballistic missile fuel, though Iran denies any sort of fuel was being stored in the container terminal.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the sharp orange color of the initial fire was consistent with burning sodium perchlorate, a component used in rocket fuel. Open-source data suggests Iran took shipments of the chemical at the port earlier this year.
According to various reports, the Donald Trump administration previously held Netanyahu back from launching strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. However, the US president has said he himself would be "leading the pack" toward war with Iran if he cannot clinch a deal.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader and former national security adviser, warned on April 28 that Israel would face "unimaginable consequences" if it attacked Iran's nuclear sites.
"The question is: Are these threats the result of Israel acting on its own, or are they coordinated with Trump to push forward negotiations with Iran?" he wrote on X.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Will Tizard
Iran Port Fire Under Control After Dozens Killed
A massive explosion at Iran's key commercial port near the city of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 25 people and injured hundreds. The explosion that triggered the fire is being investigated while media reports are suggesting chemicals used in rocket fuel may have been the cause. Iranian authorities said the fire was under control after a day of burning at the Shahid Rajaei port.
Iran Port Explosion That Killed Dozens Blamed On Unregistered Rocket Fuel
A massive explosion purportedly linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make missile propellant has killed at least 40 people and injured more than 1,000 others in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.
Authorities in Iran offered no clear explanation for what caused the April 26 blast at the Shahid Rajaei port, although independent experts said it appeared to be due to the improper storage of sodium perchlorate, a component used in rocket fuel.
On April 27, state media reported that the blast was now under control.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian visited with those some of the injured and told local officials that “we have to find out why it happened,” according to the government website.
The head of the Iranian Red Crescent Society, Pir Hossein Kolivand, said 190 of those injured remained hospitalized as of April 27.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered security and judicial officials to investigate "any negligence or deliberateness" in the incident.
The Shahid Rajaei port is Iran's busiest, processing up to 80 percent of the country's shipping traffic.
Hossein Zafari, a spokesman for Iran's crisis management organization, appeared to blame the explosion on poor storage of chemicals in containers at the port.
"The cause of the explosion was the chemicals inside the containers," he told Iran's ILNA news agency.
"Previously, the director general of crisis management had given warnings to this port during their visits and had pointed out the possibility of danger," Zafari said.
According to the private security firm Ambrey, the port had received a shipment of “sodium perchlorate rocket fuel” in March, which was going to be used to replenish Iran’s missile stocks after being depleted by its direct attacks on Israel during the war with Hamas -- which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union -- in the Gaza Strip.
Tehran has not acknowledged taking the shipment, but ship-tracking data obtained by the Associated Press shows vessels believed to be carrying the chemical in the vicinity of the port in March.
Iran Launches Investigation After Port Explosion
Iran's Interior Ministry said it launched an investigation into the port explosion.
The April 26 blast happened as Iran and the United States met in Oman for the third round of talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. A fourth round is scheduled for May 3, also in Oman.
While no Iranian officials have suggested the explosion was due to an attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who is leading Tehran's delegation in Oman, said earlier this week that "our security services are on high alert given past instances of attempted sabotage and assassination operations designed to provoke a legitimate response."
Deadly incidents have hit Iranian energy and industrial infrastructure in recent years -- such as gas explosions and oil refinery fires -- with many blamed on negligence.
Tehran, however, has also blamed some incidents on its arch-foe Israel, which has carried out attacks on Iranian soil targeting the country's nuclear program. Last year, Israel also bombed Iran's air defenses.
Iran accused Israel as being behind a February 2024 attack on Iranian gas pipelines, as well as a major cyberattack on the Shahid Rajaei port in May 2020, causing transport chaos for days after crashing the facility's computer system.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 27 repeated his calls for "all of" Iran's nuclear infrastructure to be dismantled.
"We are in close contact with the United States. But I said, one way or the other, Iran will not have nuclear weapons," Netanyahu told a news conference.
The Shahid Rajaei port is Iran's largest and it mainly handles large volumes of container traffic and also has oil tanks and other petrochemical facilities.
The port is some 1,050 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran, on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf where 20 percent of all oil traded globally passes through.
Local officials said that all schools, universities, and offices in Bandar Abbas will be closed on April 27.
With reporting from Reuters and the AP.
Iran, US Officials Meet In Oman For Third Round Of Nuclear Talks
Iran and the United States met in Oman on April 26 for the third round of talks over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. A fourth round is scheduled for May 3, with the location yet to be announced.
The talks ran for several hours in Muscat, Omani mediators said of the indirect sessions between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East.
"The negotiations were conducted very seriously and professionally," Araqchi said without providing full details. "We are cautiously optimistic."
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who has mediated the two previous round of US-Iran talks in Muscat and Rome, offered a positive note at the end of the negotiations.
Iran and the United States “identified a shared aspiration to reach agreement based on mutual respect and enduring commitments,” Busaidi posted on X after the conclusion of talks in Oman.
“Core principles, objectives and technical concerns were all addressed. Talks will continue next week with a further high-level meeting provisionally scheduled for May 3.”
The talks seek to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of some of the crushing economic sanctions the United States has imposed on the country.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to unleash airstrikes targeting Iran’s program if a deal isn’t reached.
Iranian officials increasingly warn that they could pursue a nuclear weapon with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.
- By Kian Sharifi
Even With A Nuclear Deal, Iran's Sticking With China
Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I'm looking at how Iran is seeking to reassure China that, even with a nuclear deal in place with the United States, Beijing will remain a key partner for Tehran.
What You Need To Know
• China Ties A Priority Even Amid Nuclear Progress: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi traveled to China this week, days ahead of a third round of nuclear talks with the United States in Oman. This trip underscored Tehran's commitment to deepening ties with Beijing, signaling that even if a deal is reached with Washington, relations with China will not be compromised.
• New Tunnels Grab IAEA's Attention: The Institute for Science and International Security on April 23 revealed, using satellite imagery, that Iran has set up a new security perimeter around a "new, large, deeply buried tunnel complex" near the Natanz nuclear site. The tunnels are located beneath Mount Kolang Gaz La, south of Natanz. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that he has repeatedly raised concerns over the tunnels with Iran, but Tehran claims it was not under any obligation to inform the agency. Grossi said it "cannot be excluded" that the tunnels could store undeclared nuclear material.
• Looking To Reconnect With European Powers: Araqchi wrote on X that relations with the E3 are at a low point and urged renewed diplomacy, offering visits to Paris, Berlin, and London. His comments on April 24 come as the E3 (Britain, France, Germany) have been sidelined from current Iran-US nuclear talks, with mediation now led by Oman. The E3 have threatened to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran by the end of June if no agreement is reached on Tehran's nuclear program.
The Big Issue
Iran's China Play Won't Change
Araqchi's April 23 visit to Beijing underscored Tehran's commitment to its strategic partnership with China, regardless of progress in nuclear talks with the United States.
Araqchi carried a message from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to President Xi Jinping, reaffirming that the Iran-China relationship is a long-term priority and will not be affected by developments with Washington. Notably, Araqchi traveled to Russia a week ago, ahead of the second round of talks with the United States, and handed over a message from Khamenei to Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Both Tehran and Beijing pledged to deepen economic and political ties, fast-track a 25-year cooperation pact, and coordinate closely on regional and global challenges.
Why It Matters: China is Iran's largest trading partner and a crucial diplomatic ally, especially as Tehran faces Western sanctions.
For Iran, China offers investment, technology, and a reliable market for its energy exports, while providing political backing in international forums.
For China, Iran is a vital link in its Belt and Road Initiative and a key player in Middle Eastern energy security.
Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, said Iran is enhancing its relations with Russia and China because it believes the United States's status as a superpower is on the decline.
He told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Tehran wants to reassure Moscow and Beijing that "agreements with America will not harm Russia and China's interests in Iran."
The message is that "not only will they keep their special place in Iran, but Tehran will also help Russia and China to accelerate America's decline," Golriz added.
China and Russia have both reaped advantages from Iran's tensions with the United States, with Beijing snapping up discounted Iranian oil and Moscow deploying Iranian drones in Ukraine. But if those tensions escalate further, the fallout could be something both powers would rather avoid.
China relies heavily on energy imports, with 16 percent of its oil in March coming from Iran. But its interest in Iran extends beyond oil. If sanctions are lifted, Iran's need for investment in railways and ports, among others, could benefit Chinese companies.
Crucially, over 40 percent of China's energy comes through the Persian Gulf. For Beijing, any military escalation in the region isn't just a geopolitical concern -- it's a direct threat to its energy security and economic stability.
What's Being Said: At the end of his trip, Araqchi wrote on X in Chinese that no matter how the global landscape shifts, "Iran will always see China as a trustworthy and reliable partner."
Taking a dig at the West, Iran's ambassador to China, Mohsen Bakhtiar, said Tehran and Beijing "both stand for international law and multilateralism and see strong-arm tactics as a threat to friendly ties between nations and South-South cooperation."
Expert Opinion: Golriz said the Islamic republic sees its survival as tied to strong relations with Russia and China, which is why Araqchi is tasked not only with securing a deal with Washington to lift sanctions but also with maintaining those strategic ties.
"But I believe this is a very difficult balancing act -- trying to satisfy Russian and Chinese interests on one side, and American demands on the other. Still, if that balance is achieved -- especially by moving closer to the West -- it would ultimately serve the national interest more than the interests of the Islamic republic."
That's all from me for now.
Until next time,
Kian Sharifi
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here . It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.
- By Kian Sharifi
Has Trump Moved On From Dismantling Iran's Nuclear Program?
High-stakes nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have already entered the technical phase after just two rounds of negotiations mediated by Oman.
A third round of talks, along with separate technical discussions, is scheduled for April 26 in Muscat.
The progress has fueled speculation, particularly in Iran, that the administration of US President Donald Trump has dropped its demand for the dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program in favor of simply capping it.
But analysts caution that it's far too early to draw such conclusions.
While the shift to technical discussions might suggest a softening of US demands, analysts say dismantlement could still be the underlying objective -- or at least a point of leverage.
"I never thought that dismantlement was a credible goal," said Richard Nephew, who served as the lead sanctions expert on the US team that clinched the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
"But if this is still in the Trump administration's heads, then the long-term perspective is still bleak."
He noted that technical negotiations also took place during the talks that eventually led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), even when US demands remained maximalist.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), sees the current trajectory not as a concession but as strategic pressure.
"A Trump doctrine on Iran takes shape where it gives Iran a choice: Either you dismantle your nuclear program or the US and/or Israel will dismantle it for you," he said.
Is Iran Running Down The Clock?
Some, particularly proponents of dismantlement, argue that the Islamic republic is dragging out the negotiations to run down the clock on the return of UN sanctions.
Britain, France, and Germany have threatened to trigger the "snapback" mechanism of the JCPOA -- re-imposing UN sanctions against Tehran -- if it fails to reach a deal with the United States by the end of June. However, that mechanism expires in October.
Both analysts agree Iran sees value in prolonging the process to stall pressure, avoid snapback sanctions, or simply buy time.
"There is only a certain amount of pressure that comes to beat that clock, because even after snapback expires, you still have a hostile United States with its national sanctions campaign," Nephew said.
"Iran wants to clinch a decent deal, but they'll take wasted time -- and delayed military action -- as a consolation prize," he added.
Brodsky offered a sharper view, calling the negotiations "a shield" that Tehran uses to protect its nuclear work from further scrutiny or action.
"Iran only loses should the negotiations collapse," he said. "The United States, however, does not need the talks as much as Iran does."
What Would A Good Iran Deal Look Like?
Despite skepticism over whether dismantlement is still a realistic demand, analysts agree a deal that limits Iran's nuclear activities can still be credible, if it includes key safeguards.
"The JCPOA gives us a lot of advice here," said Nephew. "You'd need three things: verification of the cap, physical limitations so that they can't quickly exceed it, and a credible risk of consequences if they cheat."
He noted that while Iran is unlikely to scrap its advanced centrifuges again, as it did under the 2015 deal, "there is still space that a deal could be found."
Brodsky, however, is doubtful that any deal short of full dismantlement can truly prevent Iran from using its nuclear program as leverage.
He views even low-level enrichment -- such as the 3.67 percent limit under the JCPOA -- as a threat.
"Its right to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent under the JCPOA was part of [an] extortion racket," he said, referring to Iran teasing nuclear weapons acquisition.
"The continuation of this negotiation process leads some observers to believe the United States has conceded a right to enrich uranium to Iran," Brodsky said. "I believe the Trump administration is still defining the contours of what an acceptable deal would look like."
- By RFE/RL
Iran Foreign Minister Calls For Resumption Of Dialogue With E3
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi issued a public call for renewed diplomacy with the E3 -- France, Germany, and the UK -- amid mounting tensions and their exclusion from ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States.
In a post on X on April 24, Araqchi acknowledged that relations with the E3 are “currently down,” describing the status quo as “lose-lose” for both sides.
He emphasized that “placing blame is a futile exercise” and instead urged a return to dialogue and cooperation, not only on nuclear issues but across all areas of mutual interest.
Araqchi offered to visit Paris, Berlin, and London for direct talks.
“The ball is now in the E3's court,” the Iranian foreign minister wrote, “how we act at this critical junction is likely to define the foreseeable future.”
The foreign minister’s outreach comes as the E3 have been sidelined from the latest round of nuclear negotiations, which are being mediated by Oman rather than European powers.
The E3 were key players in earlier efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, but this time they've been sidelined.
The E3 have threatened to trigger the re-imposition of UN sanctions on Iran if no agreement is reached with the United States by the end of June. The “snapback” of UN sanctions is a provision under the effectively defunct 2015 nuclear deal, which formally expires in October.
Iranian state media have welcomed the E3’s exclusion, with The Tehran Times even accusing them -- without evidence -- of backing UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi for secretary-general in exchange for helping to “demonize” Iran and justify a return to UN sanctions.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian, US Negotiators Agree On Third Round Of Nuclear Talks
Iranian and US negotiators agreed to hold a third round of high-stakes talks on Iran's nuclear ambitions, a positive signal amid mixed White House messages about potential military action and new demands on Tehran.
The April 19 meetings, held in Rome, were the second time that top-level negotiators from Washington and Tehran had met this month.
There was no immediate comment on the outcome of the Rome talks from the US delegation, which was headed by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff.
But news agencies quoted senior US officials as saying the sides “made very good progress” in the Rome discussions.
"Today, in Rome over four hours in our second round of talks, we made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions," said an unidentified US official -- who also confirmed a statement by Iran that the two sides agreed to meet again next week.
AP also quoted a US official as confirming that Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi had spoken face to face.
Iran's foreign minister said the two sides had agreed to meet again on April 26 in Oman, where the first round took place.
"I believe technical negotiations at the expert level will begin in Oman on Wednesday [April 23)] and next Saturday we will meet in Oman and review the results of the experts' work to see how close it is to the principles of an agreement," Araqchi told Iranian state TV.
"It was a good meeting, and I can say that the negotiations are moving forward. This time we managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals," he said.
The United States and other Western countries have long accused Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons.
Tehran has consistently denied the allegations, insisting that its efforts are aimed at civilian purposes, such as electricity generation.
Conflicting Messages
Following his return to the White House in January, US President Donald Trump, who had previously withdrawn from a 2015 accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), revived a "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions against Iran.
Last month, he sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader urging renewed talks while warning of military action if diplomacy failed.
In the past week, Trump and other White House officials have sent sometimes conflicting messages about the US approach to the talks. The White House has ordered heavy, long-range bombers to the region, along with a second aircraft carrier.
"I'm not in a rush" to use the military option, Trump told reporters on April 17. "I think Iran wants to talk."
On April 18, he told reporters: "I'm for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can't have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific."
In an interview days earlier on Fox News, Witkoff said that the United States was open to Iran having some sort of limited nuclear program.
But he then walked back that position in a social media post, suggesting that the entire program needed to be dismantled.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, said he hoped the Iranian talks would be “fruitful.”
“We would all prefer a peaceful resolution and a lasting one,” he said after meetings in Paris.
But, he added, “It has to be something that not just prevents Iran from having a nuclear weapon now, but in the future as well.”
Israel's Role
Israel’s role in the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is also critical. Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Israel has not ruled out an attack on its nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to multiple news reports.
Trump has reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington did not support such a move.
Former officials and experts have long said that Israel would need significant US military support –- and weapons –- to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and stockpiles, some of which are in underground facilities.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, AP, AFP, and Reuters
- By Kian Sharifi and
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda
What You Need To Know Before The Next Round Of US-Iran Talks
Iranian and US negotiators will hold a second round of indirect talks on April 19, a week after concluding discussions that both sides described as “constructive” and “positive.”
While the first round was hosted in Oman, the second will take place in Rome. Omani diplomats will continue to mediate the talks.
Here’s where things stand ahead of the next round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program -- with the possibility of military action still looming.
Witkoff's Reversal On Enrichment Limits
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US negotiating team, caused a stir when he publicly reversed his position on Iran’s nuclear program.
On April 15, he said Iran would need to limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent -- the cap set by a 2015 nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018.
But within hours, Witkoff walked back the comment after a backlash from hard-liners who favor dismantling Iran’s program. In a statement on social media, he said Iran “must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”
The about-face appeared to confuse Iranian officials. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Iran's chief negotiator, responded that Washington’s “true position must be clarified at the negotiating table.”
Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful and has ruled out dismantling it.
Jalil Roshandel, director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the Trump administration is unlikely to maintain its hard-line stance.
“Trump can get a win by accepting the 3.67 percent limit in exchange for other concessions, such as extending the UN sanctions sunset clause set to expire in October,” Roshandel said.
Expanding The Scope Of A Deal
Another sticking point is whether a potential deal will focus solely on Iran’s nuclear activities or also address its missile program.
In an April 15 interview with Fox News, Witkoff said the Rome talks would also cover “verification on weaponization,” including missiles.
But Iran has long refused to negotiate over its missile arsenal, which it considers a vital part of its defense strategy.
The Islamic republic used drones and missiles in two attacks on Israel last year -- the second of which was described as the largest single ballistic missile attack in history.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US diplomat and a nonproliferation expert, said expanding the scope of talks could complicate progress.
“It's not surprising that the Trump team would want to put missiles back on the table,” Fitzpatrick told Radio Farda. “But it would make negotiations much more difficult because of Iran's steadfast position that missiles are essential to its defense and deterrence posture.”
European Powers Sidelined
Britain, Germany, and France -- collectively known as the E3 -- are also signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal and played a key role in previous attempts to revive it.
This time, however, they appear to have been completely sidelined. Even though the next round of talks will be held in Italy, it will be Oman -- not the Europeans -- handling mediation.
State-affiliated media in Iran have welcomed the E3’s exclusion. The Tehran Times, an English-language newspaper, claimed -- without evidence -- that the three nations are so frustrated by “their exclusion” that they offered Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, their backing to become the next UN chief if he helps “demonize” Iran.
The paper argued that this move is aimed at justifying the return of UN sanctions -- something the E3 have threatened by the end of June if Tehran fails to reach a deal with the United States.
US Military Pressure In The Region
Trump has repeatedly warned that he would resort to military action against Iran’s nuclear program if a deal isn’t reached.
Amid rising tensions -- and a US bombing campaign targeting Tehran’s allies in Yemen -- Washington is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East.
Last month, the United States dispatched at least six B-2 bombers to a joint US-British military base on Diego Garcia, a small island in the Indian Ocean. This week, the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier was sent to reinforce the USS Harry S. Truman already stationed in the region.
Analysts believe Iran takes Trump’s threats seriously, but it remains unclear whether Tehran is willing to risk air strikes on its key nuclear sites.
Trump has said Israel would play a leading role in any such attack.
According to The New York Times, Israel had been preparing to launch air strikes against Iran -- with US assistance -- as early as May, but was held back by Trump in favor of pursuing diplomacy.
With reporting by Reza Jamali and Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Iranian Foreign Minister Calls For Russian Support In Nuclear Talks
Iran’s foreign minister has called for Russia to play a role in high-stakes negotiations over the fate of Tehran’s nuclear programs, as he cast doubt on US intentions ahead a new round of talks.
Speaking on April 18 alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Abbas Araqchi said he still believed an agreement was possible.
The Iranian diplomat was set to meet with White House special envoy Steve Witkoff in Rome on April 19, for a second round of talks over Iran’s atomic programs.
"Although we have serious doubts about the intentions and motivations of the American side, in any case we will participate in tomorrow's negotiations," Araqchi said during a joint appearance in Moscow.
Last week’s first round of talks in Oman was the highest-level negotiations between Tehran and Washington since US President Donald Trump abandoned a landmark nuclear deal in 2018.
Western countries, including the United States, have long accused Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons. Tehran has consistently denied the allegations, insisting that its efforts are aimed at civilian purposes, like electricity generation.
Earlier in the week, Witkoff called for an end to all of Iran’s uranium enrichment programs. International inspectors say Tehran has managed to refine its uranium stocks to 60 percent -- which is close to the threshold at which uranium is considered weapons-grade.
Araqchi responded on April 16, saying that Iran's enrichment efforts were not up for discussion.
"If there is similar willingness on the other side, and they refrain from making unreasonable and unrealistic demands, I believe reaching an agreement is likely," Araghchi said.
Since taking office in January, Trump has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran, including by sending more US Air Force and naval assets to the region. But he’s also forced direct talks with Iranian officials.
“I’m not asking for much,” Trump said in comments earlier this month, “but they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
With reporting by Reuters
- By RFE/RL
US Air Strikes Targeting Yemeni Oil Port; Houthis Say Attack Killed 20 People
The US military said it destroyed a key Yemeni fuel port held by Houthi rebels, who said the air strikes also killed 20 people and wounded 50 others.
The US military’s Central Command said its forces took action on the port of Ras Isa to eliminate a source of fuel for the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and deprive them of revenue.
“The objective of these strikes was to degrade the economic source of power of the Houthis, who continue to exploit and bring great pain upon their fellow countrymen,” Centcom said in a statement.
“This strike was not intended to harm the people of Yemen, who rightly want to throw off the yoke of Houthi subjugation and live peacefully,” Centcom said.
The US air strikes have hammered the Houthis in a campaign launched by President Donald Trump on March 15 to end their attacks on civilian shipping and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Houthi attacks have hampered shipping through the Suez Canal -- a vital route for world seaborne traffic -- forcing many companies to send their ships around the tip of southern Africa.
The Houthis denounced the attack.
“This completely unjustified aggression represents a flagrant violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and independence and a direct targeting of the entire Yemeni people,” the Houthis said in a statement carried by the Houthi-controlled SABA news agency. “It targets a vital civilian facility that has served the Yemeni people for decades.”
Health Ministry spokesman Anees Alasbahi said the preliminary death toll stood at 20, including five paramedics.
There were also "50 wounded workers and employees at the Ras Issa oil port, following the American aggression," he said on X.
"The death toll is likely to rise as body parts are still being identified," he added.
The number of dead represented one of the highest reported death tolls since Trump vowed that military action against the rebels would continue until they are no longer a threat to shipping.
The Ras Isa port lies along the west coast of Yemen on the Red Sea.
Centcom said ships have continued to supply fuel via the port despite Washington designating the rebels a foreign terrorist organization earlier this year. The Centcom statement did not specify the source of the fuel.
US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce commented earlier on April 17 about China's participation in Yemen. Bruce told journalists that the Chinese satellite firm Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company was "directly supporting” the Houthis.
Bruce said their actions and Beijing's support of the company, “is yet another example of China's empty claims to support peace.”
With reporting by AP and Reuters
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