ALMATY -- From crackdowns on protesters to deadly border clashes and the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine, 2022 was a memorable year in Central Asia for all the wrong reasons.
Here are five stories that shaped the region in 2022 and could have a bearing on events in Central Asia in the year ahead.
'Social Tensions' Fueled By Inflation
In Kazakhstan, 2022 began with unprecedented anti-government protests and a brutal state crackdown that left at least 238 people dead. The unrest ended after Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev called in Russia-led troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
The nationwide demonstrations were initially triggered by a hike in the price of fuel. But the protests quickly grew into a show of anger over corruption and nepotism that has plagued the country for years.
While they crack down on opponents -- both real and perceived -- the biggest threat to the authoritarian governments of Central Asia is surging food prices, observers say.
The cost of living in the region has soared due to the coronavirus, supply issues prompted by the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine.
As of November, yearly inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 19.6 percent, with food prices increasing by around 24 percent.
These figures are worrying not only for Kazakhstan but for neighboring countries that depend on it for food exports, according to economic analyst Tulegen Askarov.
"Inflation is the most important source of social tensions now," says Askarov.
Constraints on local purchasing power will give governments less wiggle room to overhaul domestic energy systems that are falling drastically short.
Experts have long warned that the region's low tariffs deter investment in the power sector. But after what happened in Kazakhstan this year, it remains to be seen if any government will risk major price hikes.
Can Anyone Stop Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Clashes?
The past year was marked by bouts of deadly border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In September, fighting killed around 100 people.
For years, Russia had watched on as relations between two nations where it maintains military bases unraveled. But in October, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, and Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon in Kazakhstan in an attempt to help resolve the disputes.
But it remains unclear if Moscow is willing or able to mediate a solution to the constant border clashes.
Kyrgyzstan-based political scientist Medet Tiulegenov said that, with the Kremlin bogged down in a disastrous war in Ukraine, it is unlikely it will be able to play a decisive role in resolving issues that date back to the early days of the Soviet Union.
"Russia's participation in various conflicts around the post-Soviet space moreover suggests it is not a party that is effective at managing mutual distrust and bringing countries together," Tiulegenov said.
The political scientist said that the likelihood of a third major escalation in three years in 2023 is "not low."
Can Kazakhstan Keep Russia At Arm's Length?
The only Central Asian nation to share a border with Russia, Kazakhstan saw its ties with its northern neighbor deteriorate after it failed to join Belarus in endorsing the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, sparing itself the threat of Western sanctions.
Astana's neutrality pledge triggered a barrage of insults and threats from Russian politicians and public figures, ranging from claims that Kazakhstan should be grateful to Moscow for its security intervention in January to thinly veiled threats of invasion.
On several occasions this year, Moscow also cut off Kazakhstan's access to a Russia-controlled oil pipeline that Astana relies on to export crude to the European Union. The move is a sign that Moscow is punishing its ally for failing to show sufficient loyalty, according to some observers.
This month, Kazakhstan joined 13 other countries in voting against a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning rights abuses in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Previously, Astana had abstained on Ukraine-related resolutions.
A representative of Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry, Aibek Smadiyarov, said online criticism of the vote had "an emotional hue."
While recognizing Ukraine's territorial integrity, Kazakhstan's consistent position was "not to harm, but to help in overcoming problematic issues," Smadiyarov said.
But Kazakh lawmaker Aidos Sarym told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service that the decision was comparable to appeasing an alcoholic neighbor, adding that he hoped Kazakhstan would abstain in future votes.
Analyst Dimash Alzhanov told the service that Kazakhstan's failure to modernize its military and security services meant that it would continue to look to Moscow for its security needs.
Holding Onto Power By Handing It Down?
In Turkmenistan, Central Asia's most isolated and authoritarian country, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov stepped down and handed power to his son, Serdar, in a managed election in March.
Another transition could occur in Tajikistan, where there is mounting speculation that Rahmon is preparing to hand the reins to his son, Rustam Emomali.
Rahmon, 70, has been bestowed with the title of "Leader of the Nation," suggesting he is likely to wield considerable influence even if he steps down.
In Turkmenistan, the elder Berdymukhammedov continues to play the role of a president. Authorities just announced that a newly built city would be named in his honor.
Deirdre Tynan, a senior adviser at Pace Global Strategies, says real change is unlikely, even if there is a change at the top.
"Neither Rahmon nor Berdymukhamedov senior are inspirational role models when it comes to good governance. How far can an apple fall from a tree?" Tynan told RFE/RL.
Father-son transitions can produce tension as well as continuity, she warned.
"The new, younger leaders inherit power structures that may not feel the same sense of loyalty to them as they did their fathers, and the risks here abound," Tynan said.
Kyrgyzstan's Unrest-Crackdown Cycle
The past year witnessed some of the most violent state crackdowns in Central Asia in years.
In July, Uzbek security forces used lethal force to crush protests over mooted constitutional changes affecting the country's autonomous Karakalpakstan region, causing 21 deaths, according to an official toll.
In Tajikistan, the government's crackdown on protests in the restive Gorno-Badakhshan region in May killed at least 16 people, although witnesses said the toll was much higher.
Historically, these more authoritarian governments have managed to crush dissent without putting regime survival on the line.
But in Kyrgyzstan, the region's most pluralistic country, crackdowns have often come back to bite jittery administrations.
After revolutions in 2005, 2010, and 2020, it remains to be seen whether the shrinking space afforded to the opposition by Japarov will provoke another backlash.
Analyst Emil Dzhuraev says the Japarov government will survive in the short term because it is "different from some of its predecessors in important ways."
In particular, Dzhuraev said, the current administration "enjoys a stronger support and more mobilized following among rural citizens" who have traditionally played a central role in anti-government uprisings.
But this support "has been declining over time," Dzhuraev said.
