When Russian natural gas stopped flowing westward across Ukraine on January 1, it was the end of an era.
It was also a blow to Moscow, underscoring how President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage all-out war against Russia's neighbor has undermined its ability to use energy supplies as a lever of influence across much of Europe.
But not in Moldova.
Russia is seeking to use the cutoff, analysts and officials say, as a part of a concerted effort to weaken the pro-Western government in the small nation, which is sandwiched between Ukraine and European Union member Romania, and where the Kremlin aims to regain clout and control.
After decades of dependence on Russian gas for heating its homes and fueling its factories, Moldova has in recent years diversified its sources of power, spurred in part by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which prompted all of Europe to rethink its energy supplies.
That means the cutoff, which was the result of Ukraine’s refusal to extend a transit contract with Russian state gas giant Gazprom, has not had much of an immediate impact across most of the country. Four days after the gas flows halted, most Moldovan households were still warm, and lit.
The picture is grimmer in Transdniester, the renegade sliver of territory on the left or eastern bank of the Dniester River that has Russian troops on its soil and has governed its own affairs -- with Moscow’s backing --- since a war that erupted as the Soviet Union collapsed.
The shutoff has left many of region’s 450,000 people wearing extra clothes, firing up electric heaters, and shivering in their homes. A senior official in the de-facto government said it has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers.
Stoking Discontent
Russia may be hoping to use the situation to aggravate tension between Moldova’s government and the authorities and ordinary citizens in Transdniester, while also stoking discontent over rising prices across the country.
Outside the breakaway region, Moldova until recently got 80 percent of its electricity from Kurchugan, a power plant in Transdniester that had been fueled by Russian gas. The plant is now fueled in part by imported coal. Moldova is expected to start importing more electricity from Romania this year, though prices are likely to be higher.
Russia could deliver some gas to Moldova via the TurkStream pipeline in the Black Sea, easing the crisis in Transdniester and supplying Kurchugan. Moldovan officials, who declared a 60-day state of emergency when it became clear that Gazprom would stop gas flows on January 1, reportedly were surprised that the Gazprom did not seek to continue TurkStream shipments.
“The Russians are clearly in the game not just to pressure Ukraine, and Europe, and Moldova,” said William Hill, a former U.S. ambassador who has spent years working in Moldova. “But they’ve hung Transdniester out to dry, and this is really surprising everyone.”
“What the Russians have done to their 30-year proxy on the left bank of the Dniester River, it’s remarkable,” Hill said. “People are going to remember this. It’s freezing there.”
The invasion of Ukraine has driven the de-facto authorities in Transdniester closer to the central government in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital. The cold shoulder the region is getting from Russia so far could potentially backfire, accelerating this process.
But Moscow is also working hard to put the blame on the pro-Western government -- and the leadership in Transdniester seems to be going along with it, rejecting Chisinau’s offers of support such as generators, humanitarian aid, and essential medical supplies.
“Russian state propaganda [began] to spread messages blaming Moldova and its government for the situation and painting apocalyptic scenarios for the region some weeks before the end of gas transit,” Maria Golubeva, a former Latvian parliament member who is a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington think tank.
Intensified Propaganda
The propaganda intensified around January 1, she told RFE/RL, adding: “I believe we can expect this to spiral in the next few weeks as the de-facto Transdniester authorities ignore Moldova's proposals for solutions.”
On January 2, speaking of deliveries to Europe more broadly, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said without evidence that “responsibility for the cessation of Russian gas supplies lies entirely with the United States and the puppet Kyiv regime” as well Ukraine’s European backers.
The shutdown comes with months of winter left to endure and with political tensions in Moldova persisting ahead of parliamentary elections expected by autumn. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu won reelection in November after a campaign marked by government accusations of aggressive Russian meddling. The pro-EU side prevailed by a razor-thin margin in a referendum on Moldova’s potential further integration with the European Union.
The Kremlin clearly has its eye on the parliamentary elections, said Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of GlobalFocus Center, a Romania-based think tank, and an associate researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Sandu’s ruling party is “not as well placed for this as they were for the presidential elections and the EU referendum, so it's enough for Russia to add a bit of pressure and they can actually push them to an area where they're going to lose the election,” she told RFE/RL in a phone interview.
Moldova can buy gas in advance and have it delivered from the European market, but at “much higher prices” than it paid Gazprom, Popescu-Zamfir said.
“So, I'm guessing the Russian strategy is make them spend all their budget [on energy] instead of spending it on anything related to economic development in general, spend it to get through the winter,” she said. “And then as the elections approach, they're going to have even higher inflation, even higher prices than they do already, which is pretty high.”
Without sufficient aid from the West, she said, “that's absolutely a strategy that can work.”
