Iranian armed forced have begun an annual, three-day naval exercise near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, state TV reported.

The report said units from the navy, air force and ground forces were taking part in the drills on September 10 with submarines and drones to be used.

Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, the commander of the annual maneuver dubbed Zolfaghar-99, said on September 9 that the war game was aimed at "improving readiness in confronting foreign threats and any possible invasion."

The Iranian Navy handles all operations in the Gulf of Oman on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of all oil traded passes.

In August, the Iranian Navy boarded and briefly detained a Liberian-flagged oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on reporting by AP

The White House again warned Tehran that it can be dealt with either through military means or by reaching a deal over its nuclear program -- the remarks coming hours after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected a US proposal for negotiations between the two bitter rivals.

"We hope the Iran Regime puts its people and best interests ahead of terror," White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement on March 9 while reiterating remarks by President Donald Trump that "if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing."

In an interview with Fox Business recorded on March 6, Trump said, "There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal" to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

SEE ALSO:

Trump Says He Offered Nuclear Talks With Iran's Khamenei

"I've written them a letter saying, 'I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing,'" Trump said.

"I would rather negotiate a deal. I'm not sure that everybody agrees with me, but we can make a deal that would be just as good as if you won militarily," Trump added.

"But the time is happening now. The time is coming up. Something's going to happen one way or the other."

Snippets of the interview were aired on March 7, but the full sit-down will be broadcast on March 9, Fox said.

In separate comments to reporters, Trump said: “We have a situation with Iran that, something’s going to happen very soon. Very, very soon.”

Ali Khamenei, speaking on March 8 to a group of Iranian officials -- without specifically mentioning Trump or the United States -- said, "Their talks are not aimed at solving problems."

"It is for...’Let’s talk to impose what we want on the other party that is sitting on the opposite side of the table.’”

"The insistence of some bullying governments on negotiations is not to resolve issues....Talks for them is a pathway to have new demands; it is not only about Iran's nuclear issue....Iran will definitely not accept their expectations," Khamenei was quoted by state media as saying.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on March 8 said Tehran had not yet received a letter from Trump.

SEE ALSO:

Can Russia Be A Trustworthy Mediator For Iran?

"We have heard of it [Trump’s letter], but we haven't received anything," Araghchi said on state TV.

The United States and Israel have long stated they will never allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons, even as Iran continues to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels.

Tehran has long maintained its program is for peaceful purposes.

During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from a landmark 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers and reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under its terms.

Trump said the terms of that deal were not strong enough to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and he also accused Tehran of fomenting extremist violence in the region -- which Iran has denied despite widespread evidence of such activity.

Khamenei last month said he opposed direct talks with Trump, charging that he cannot be trusted since he left the nuclear deal.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign that was the cornerstone of his Iran policy in his first term, with the aim of slashing Iran's oil exports to "zero." Experts say the United States is unlikely to be able to entirely stop Iran's oil sales but will be able to substantially reduce it.

With reporting by AP and Reuters

Syria is experiencing its worst outbreak of violence since the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Russia whose family's 50-year rule in Syria ended in December 2024.

Clashes broke out on March 6 in the coastal province of Latakia between Assad loyalists and security forces of Syria's new government, rebel-leader-turned-interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Analysts say the fighting exposes Sharaa's struggle to maintain control in a post-Assad Syria -- to the delight of Iran, Israel, and even Islamic State (IS) extremists.

Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, said what is transpiring in Latakia is "simply an inevitable outcome" in any postconflict setting.

"Syria was enmeshed in a civil war for 13 years. In cases like this, there are almost always revenge killings and violent sectarianism," he said.

The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said on March 8 that it had identified 745 civilians belonging to the Alawite minority killed in the clashes, including in "field executions" by Syrian "security forces and allied groups."

The Observatory said that more than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two days, including 125 security personnel and 148 fighters loyal to the ousted Assad regime.

SEE ALSO:

Who Is Ahmed Al-Awda, The Man Who Could Be A Threat To Syria's New Rulers?

A curfew has been enforced in Homs, Latakia, and Tartus due to ongoing fighting, and the governor of Latakia has announced that power has been completely cut off in the province.

The official SANA news agency, citing an Interior Ministry source, conceded that "individual violations" had happened and pledged that the government would put an end to them.

In his first remarks on the violence, Sharaa on March 7 said "remnants" of Assad's government "sought to test the new Syria" and vowed to bring them to trial.

He did not address allegations that his forces had killed civilians, but praised the armed forces for "their commitment to protecting and securing civilians."

Did Iran Start The Unrest?

The fighting started about a week after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country is a major backer of Sharaa's rule, warned Iran against moving to challenge the new Syrian government by empowering groups opposed to it.

He warned that it "would not be the right" approach and said doing so may result in "another country doing the same thing to you in return."

SEE ALSO:

Eyeing Regional Powers, Syria Is Freezing Iran Out

Sharaa, who saw Ankara-backed groups join the offensive launched by his US-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) against Assad, has received scores of foreign delegations since seizing power in Damascus but has frozen Iran out in favor of its rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as Western nations.

Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies and Shi'ite militias, said there is "a lot of evidence" pointing to Tehran's involvement in the new outbreak of violence.

Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said after Assad's fall that Syrians would revolt against Sharaa's rule.

Smyth said Tehran "is happy this was set off," especially since it establishes that Iran "can cause massive disruption" despite losing a key ally in Assad.

"Better for Tehran is the fact that HTS militants demonstrated they would engage in human rights abuses. Iran desired an overreaction," he added.

Some observers have also suggested Tehran could look to back the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to challenge not only Sharaa, but also Turkey's growing influence.

Syria, under Assad's rule, played a pivotal role in Iran's strategic land corridor to the Levant. This corridor was crucial for Iran's regional influence, serving as the logistical backbone for its network of state and nonstate actors.

Who Else Stands to Gain From The Unrest?

Since rebels seized power, the new government has faced numerous security challenges.

Elements loyal to Assad, who belongs to the Alawite community, have sporadically attacked the new government's security forces, while IS remains active in various pockets throughout the country.

SEE ALSO:

Islamic State Seeks Comeback Amid Power Vacuum In Syria

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have expanded territorial control in southern Syria, with reports saying they are positioned about 20 kilometers from the capital. Israel has been targeting military assets and demanding the demilitarization of southern Syria.

"IS is extremely opportunistic and will be biding its time and waiting to strike. Israel will also take advantage of the situation by launching more strikes in the south of Syria," Clarke said.

"Sharaa is indeed struggling with control, but much of this is to be expected," he added.

US President Donald Trump has said he sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing talks to reach a deal over Tehran's nuclear program.

In an interview with Fox News recorded on March 6, Trump said he had sent the letter "yesterday."

"I've written them a letter saying, 'I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing,'" Trump said.

Snippets of the interview were aired on March 7, but the full sit-down will be broadcast on March 9, Fox News said.

"I would rather negotiate a deal. I'm not sure that everybody agrees with me, but we can make a deal that would be just as good as if you won militarily," Trump added. "But the time is happening now. The time is coming up. Something's going to happen one way or the other."

In comments at the White House later on March 7, Trump again voiced hope for a deal in the near future.

"We cannot let them have a nuclear weapon," he said, adding that "something is going to happen very soon."

"Hopefully we will have a peace deal," he said, apparently meaning a peaceful resolution of tension over Tehran's nuclear program. "I’m just saying I’d rather see a peace deal then the other. But the other will solve the problem.”

SEE ALSO:

Can Russia Be A Trustworthy Mediator For Iran?

During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from a landmark 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers and reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under its terms.

Khamenei last month said he opposed direct talks with Trump, charging that he cannot be trusted since he left the nuclear deal.

After abrogating the accord in 2018, Trump welcomed an offer by Japan's then-prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to mediate and in 2019 asked the Japanese premier to deliver a letter to Khamenei. The Iranian leader rejected the letter, saying it was "not worthy" of a response.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign that was the cornerstone of his Iran policy in his first term, with the aim of slashing Iran's oil exports to "zero." Experts say the United States is unlikely to be able to entirely stop Iran's oil sales but will be able to substantially reduce it.

In comments to AFP, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi insisted Iran's nuclear program "cannot be destroyed" through military action and dismissed the prospect of talks with Trump as long as the "maximum pressure" campaign was in force.

SEE ALSO:

Can Israel Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program?

Iran significantly accelerated its nuclear program after the United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity. Experts say Iran is a short technical step from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is considered weapons-grade level.

Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and has no plans to weaponize it. But the International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed "serious concern" over the speed with which Iran is accumulating highly enriched uranium.

SEE ALSO:

China Is Iran's Top Oil Customer. Can Trump Use Sanctions To Change That?

On March 6, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign aims to shut down Iran's oil industry and "collapse its already buckling economy."

He added that "making Iran broke again" will mark the beginning of the government's sanctions policy toward the Islamic republic.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how Russia's offer to mediate between Iran and the United States was received in Tehran.

What You Need To Know

• Russia Offers To Mediate Iran-US Talks: Various reports this week said Russia has offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, with the Kremlin insisting both nations should resolve issues through dialogue. The reports say US President Donald Trump has asked Moscow to help communicate with Iran on not only its nuclear program but also regional activities. Iranian media, however, are watching with narrowed eyes. They argue that Moscow is only looking to secure its own interests.

• US Wants To Make 'Iran Broke Again': US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week said the Trump administration's sanctions aim to shut down Iran's oil industry and "collapse its already buckling economy." He added that "making Iran broke again" will mark the beginning of the government's sanctions policy toward the Islamic republic. Tehran has not commented on Bessent's remarks.

• Singer Flogged For Song Slamming Mandatory Hijab: Iranian pop singer Mehdi Yarrahi received 74 lashes this week for a song that criticized Iran's mandatory hijab law. Released in August 2023 ahead of the first anniversary of the Women, Life, Freedom movement, the song led to his arrest later that month. The flogging sparked widespread outrage on social media, with figures like Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi condemning it as an act of revenge against his support for Iranian women.

• Iranian Animation Makes History At Oscars: Iranian animated short film In The Shadow Of The Cypress made history this week by winning the Oscar for Best Animated Short Film at the 97th Academy Awards. Directed by Hossein Molayemi and Shirin Sohani, the 20-minute, dialogue-free film portrays a father's struggle with post-traumatic stress disorder and his relationship with his daughter as they attempt to save a beached whale.

The Big Issue

An Ally Or Sacrificial Lamb?

Just a couple of weeks after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is looking to broker talks between Iran and the United States, Russia has also thrown its hat in the ring.

Whereas potential Saudi mediation was generally welcomed by Iranian media and pundits, the Russian offer has been met with skepticism.

While both Tehran and Moscow refer to each other as allies, critics say Russia ultimately looks out for its own interests and has no qualms about sacrificing Iran.

Why It Matters: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out against direct talks with the Trump administration, saying his government cannot be trusted because he pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Russia was among the five world powers that signed the landmark nuclear accord, but Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former Iranian foreign minister who negotiated the deal, has previously charged that Moscow actively sought to erode the deal.

Relations between Iran and Russia have grown in recent years, but the deep mistrust of Moscow remains.

This particularly came to the fore after senior US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia last month to discuss normalizing relations and ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This led to concerns in Iran that Russia will ultimately abandon its ally for the sake of a good deal with the Trump administration.

What's Being Said: Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Russia lost its authority as one of the signatories to the Iran nuclear deal after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He argued that with its offer to mediate, Moscow was looking to "regain its place" and even "influence Iran's decision-making."

Nematollah Izadi, a former ambassador to Oman, charged that Russia "cannot be an impartial and honest mediator." He argued Saudi Arabia would be a better mediator because relations between Tehran and Washington would have little impact on Iran's dealings with Saudi Arabia. The same, he insisted, could not be said for Tehran's relations with Moscow.

The consensus among prominent media outlets in Iran is that Russia is only looking out for itself.

The reformist Sazandegi newspaper asserted Moscow "has shown in the past that it prioritizes its interests over everything else" and argued Iran would stand to lose if the United States and Russia reached any kind of agreement.

Even the Keyhan newspaper, whose editor in chief is appointed by Khamenei, insisted Tehran "does not need a mediator."

Some analysts, including Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group and Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, argued that European signatories to the 2015 deal -- Britain, France, and Germany -- would be apprehensive about Russian mediation, concerned they would be frozen out.

Expert Opinion: "It's entirely possible that in the coming months we find ourselves in a scenario where the US joins Russia in opposing UN sanctions snapback on Iran," says Eric Brewer, deputy vice president for the Nuclear Threat Initiative's Nuclear Materials Security Program.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Pop singer Mehdi Yarrahi has been given 74 lashes for a song criticizing Iran's mandatory dress code for women, ending a criminal case against him that also included a prison term.

His lawyer, Zahra Minuei, wrote on X on March 5 that Yarrahi's flogging sentence had been carried out.

Yarrahi became a household name in August 2023 after releasing a song titled Roosarito -- which translates as Your Head Scarf in Persian -- ahead of the first anniversary of the deadly nationwide protests that gave rise to the Women, Life, Freedom movement.

In January 2024, Yarrahi was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison and 74 lashes over the song. He was sentenced by the court on multiple charges and the sentences ran concurrently, meaning the singer would serve one year in prison.

In a video message days ahead of the flogging, Yarrahi said his prison sentence had been changed to house arrest with an ankle monitor due to his health problems, but insisted he had not requested the flogging sentence be dropped.

Messages of support have poured in for Yarrahi on social media.

Imprisoned Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi in a statement said the flogging was "retaliation" for his support for Iranian women.

"Mehdi Yarrahi stood against the suppression of women's voices -- let us be his voice," she wrote.

Political activist and former prisoner Arash Sadeqi hailed Yarrahi for "becoming the voice of the people and amplifying their grievances."

He praised the singer for "not bowing to force" and added, "People will never forget who stood by them in their toughest days."

Your Head Scarf urges women to remove their mandatory head scarves. It was released as officials clamped down on dissent ahead of the first anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2023.

Amini died in police custody for an alleged hijab violation. Her death sparked the Women, Life, Freedom movement and nationwide unrest over the government's restrictions on women and their daily lives.

Senior Russian missile and air-defense specialists traveled to Iran last year as the Islamic republic expanded its military cooperation with Moscow.

Reuters, which first reported the story, said seven Russian experts visited Iran on April 24 and September 17, 2024.

The visits came at a critical time for Iran, as it was embroiled in a conflict with archfoe Israel, with the two sides launching military attacks against one another in April and October.

Neither Iranian nor Russian officials have commented on the report and there is no formal explanation for the trips. Analysts say that while the visits are noteworthy, they are not surprising.

"There has been a two-way learning process in the Iran-Israel tit-for-tat, which also provided the Russians with data about air defenses," Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program, told RFE/RL.

In addition to domestically developed air-defense systems, Iran also uses Russian S-300 missile-defense systems whose delivery was completed in 2016.

In April 2024, satellite imagery showed that an S-300 radar had been damaged by a limited but precise Israeli strike, which came in retaliation for Iran launching a massive drone and missile attack weeks earlier.

SEE ALSO:

Israel's Attack On Iran Has Left Tehran Offensively And Defensively Weaker

The failure of Russian-supplied air defenses to intercept the Israeli air strikes is another reason the Russian experts may have visited Iran, according to Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute.

"One of the main purposes of the visits was to provide Iran with technical assistance to understand what exactly happened and how to defend against Israeli attacks," Nadimi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

"They were meant to study the data and improve the performance of air defenses against future attacks, which, as we saw, didn't work out," he added.

Israel last October retaliated against Iran's second and biggest-ever direct attack, targeting key military sites and degrading Tehran's air-defense and missile-production capabilities.

Would A US-Russia Deal Hurt Tehran-Moscow Ties?

The trips to Iran by Russian military experts represent the kind of perk that Tehran is loath to lose if Moscow and Washington reach an agreement requiring Russia to scale back its defense cooperation with the Islamic republic.

Since senior US and Russian officials met in Riyadh last month to normalize relations and end the war in Ukraine, there has been speculation that the Kremlin might give up Iran to get a better deal.

SEE ALSO:

Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks With Apprehension

Grajewski argued that Iran and Russia do not have a strong economic relationship, so financially Tehran would not suffer much. But the impact could be felt elsewhere.

"If Russia does completely abandon Iran, Iran would primarily suffer the most in terms of improvements to its conventional military capabilities," she said. "The Russians have been crucial here both for the domestic production of Russian weapons and for the transfer of weaponry."

Iran has provided Russia with cheap but effective drones that have been used against Ukraine over the course of the war, and Western governments have accused Tehran of providing Moscow with ballistic missiles to aid in its 2022 full-scale invasion.

SEE ALSO:

How Would Iran Benefit From Exporting Ballistic Missiles To Russia?

The Washington Institute's Nadimi noted Russia's reliance on Iranian hardware was not due to a lack of technology but rather time, because Iranian drones are cost-effective and quick to produce.

Still, analysts said it was unlikely that any sort of agreement between the Kremlin and US President Donald Trump would result in a long-term change in Russia and Iran's defense cooperation.

"The key thing to remember is that the Russia-Iran relationship has many layers that may persist even with a US-Russia deal," Grajewski said.

She added that "military-to-military channels are so deeply embedded" that technology and knowledge transfer could continue even if only parts of the Russian government remain engaged with Iran.

Fereshteh Ghazi of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.

Iranian filmmakers Hossein Molayemi and Shirin Sohani needed a miracle just to get to the 97th Academy Awards, let alone a second to win an Oscar for Best Animated Short Film. They got both.

A last minute visa allowed them to travel to Los Angeles for the awards on March 2, with the pair arriving just three hours before the start of the ceremonies. Not too long afterward, their animated film "In the Shadow Of The Cypress" won.

“It’s a miracle, and speaking in front of this expectant audience is very hard for us,” Molayemi said in his acceptance speech at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

“Yes, if we persevere and remain faithful, miracles will happen.”

Inspired by the aftermath of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, In the Shadow Of The Cypress is a 2D, dialogue-free animation that tells the story of a former ship captain suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder who lives with his daughter in a far-flung house by the shores of the Persian Gulf in southern Iran.

Their lives take a turn when they discover a beached whale, setting them on a profound journey of healing.

The filmmakers initially wanted to portray challenging family relations, but then shifted their focus on the devastating conflict and its impact on the families of soldiers returning from war, Molayemi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda days before the Academy Awards.

“We searched online for stories told by families of war veterans because we were sure the families wouldn’t talk to us, especially given all the bureaucracy and permits that we needed to obtain,” Sohani said.

Who Funded The Animation?

Molayemi said he and Sohani paid out of pocket to produce the film and later approached the state-run Center for the Intellectual Development of Children and Young Adults, a production company predating the Islamic republic, to recoup some of the costs.

The filmmakers agreed to give the company just over half of the rights to the film, but the company delayed payment by over a year, during which the value of the Iranian currency had significantly dropped against the dollar.

“The money was worth about half of what it was supposed to,” Molayemi complained.

The production company also demanded some scenes be dropped, including where the daughter shows her hair and the father smokes a cigarette, but the directors resisted.

"In The Shadow Of The Cypress" Makes History

In The Shadow Of The Cypress is the second Iranian film to be nominated in the Best Animated Short category, after Our Uniform by Yeganeh Moghaddam competed at last year’s Academy Awards. But Molayemi and Sohani’s film made history as the first Iranian animation to win.

Molayemi chalked it up to “coincidence” and said the back-to-back nominations “don’t mean animated movies get a lot of support” in Iran.

“These have all been personal efforts. Of course, animations that promote the government's ideology receive backing, but independent animations don’t get any special support."

There was little to no support from Iranian bodies to promote the film abroad as it competed in several high-profile competitions.

Sohani insisted that their movie met the criteria to be in contention for an Academy Award, “but at the Oscars, the quality of the film is not the only determining factor because promotion also pays an important part.”

She said while other movies in the category had the backing of large production companies, “in Iran, we simply didn’t have the financial resources to promote the movie at the level of the other nominees.”

Molayemi echoed his partner’s sentiment, calling In The Shadow Of The Cypress “the most abandoned movie” among the five nominees.

“I hope there is a miracle and they take notice of our movie,” he told Radio Farda, days before the movie made history at the Oscars.

Written by Kian Sharifi based on an interview by Babak Ghafooriazar of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda

Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif has stepped down on the "advice" of the country's judiciary chief, Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei.

In a post on X on March 3, Zarif said he had been "invited" by Mohseni-Ejei for a chat during which he was "advised to return to academia to prevent further pressure on the government."

A former foreign minister, Zarif's appointment in reformist President Masud Pezeshkian's government has been a source of tension for months, with his hard-line critics insisting that it violates a 2022 law on appointments in key positions.

His critics argue that Zarif's American-born sons are dual Iranian-U.S. nationals, rendering him unfit to hold such a position.

Zarif has long been a target for hard-line conservatives in Iran who claim he has too many foreign contacts and has faced suspicions because his sons -- now in their 40s -- acquired U.S. citizenship when they were born while he was a student in the United States.

Zarif had attempted to resign in August 2024 after less than two weeks in office, blaming differences with Pezeshkian over his choice of conservative cabinet members.

It later emerged that he had stepped down due to growing pressure from critics over the law.

"With Zarif's departure from the government, we can effectively consider the possibility of negotiations with America and the lifting of sanctions completely over," Ruhollah Rahimpour, a political analyst based in Turkey, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Zarif's resignation followed the impeachment of Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati, who was sacked by lawmakers in a 182-82 vote on March 2.

The political turmoil represented another setback for Pezeshkian, who shocked the country with his election victory last July, giving hopes to some observers of the potential for improved relations with the West.

SEE ALSO:

Make A Deal Or Become The Deal, Ex-Diplomat Warns Iran's Leaders

The moves come at a time of increased tensions among the population over surging inflation and a tumbling currency in Iran –- which despite its energy riches is suffering through unplanned blackouts that have hit more than half of the country.

The AFP news agency reported that, on the domestic black market, Iran’s currency -- the rial -- was trading at more than 920,000 to the U.S. dollar, far worse than the rate of 600,000 to the dollar in mid-2024.

The falling value of the rial in recent years has exacerbated the cost of living in Iran. A recent report by the country's statistical authority said that around one-third of Iranians earn less than $2 a day and struggle to afford basic necessities.

SEE ALSO:

Iranian Exiles Sue Ex-Shah's 'Chief Torturer' In U.S. Court

During Hemmati's impeachment hearing, Pezeshkian told lawmakers that he initially wanted dialogue with the United States, but changed his mind after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opposed talks with the Donald Trump administration last month.

Hemmati backed talks with the United States while Zarif was one of the key architects of a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers -- which Trump withdrew from in 2018 during his first term in office.

Rahimpor said Pezeshkian implicitly blaming Khamenei for Tehran not engaging with Trump did not go down well with the supreme leader, who has the final say on all state matters.

"The political establishment, namely Khamenei, set out to punish" the president, Rahimpor suggested, which meant withdrawing his support for Zarif and Hemmati's continued presence in Pezeshkian's cabinet.

Much of the economic difficulties are tied to sanctions placed on the Iranian economy by the United States, which resumed its "maximum pressure" policy as Trump returned to the White House on January 20.

UN sanctions against Tehran were lifted under the terms of a landmark 2015 nuclear deal in return for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by Iran with the United States, China, France, Russia, the U.K., Germany, and the European Union.

SEE ALSO:

Public Anger Rises As Iran's Economy Worsens

During his first term in office, however, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed crippling U.S. sanctions that have roiled the economy

Zarif, a well-known and controversial figure in Iran, was Tehran's top diplomat under moderate former President Hassan Rohani and played a key role in concluding the nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, Zarif has faced international criticism for comments justifying human rights violations in Iran, the compulsory wearing of the hijab, and other nationalist remarks.

Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at growing fears in Iran that failing to strike a deal with the United States will lead to Tehran becoming a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with Russia and European powers.

What You Need To Know

• Former Diplomat Urges Iran To Make A Deal With U.S.: Ali Majedi, a former ambassador to Germany, has warned Iran that if it fails to make a deal with the United States, it will likely find itself used as a bargaining chip in a potential deal between Washington, European powers, and Moscow. This comes as the growing likelihood of a U.S.-Russian rapprochement has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow might abandon Iran in favor of a good deal with the Donald Trump administration.

• Tehran Speeds Up Production Of Near Weapons-Grade Uranium: In its confidential quarterly report, which was seen by news agencies this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Tehran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity had increased by 92.5 kilograms to 274.8 kilograms. The IAEA described the significant increase as a “serious concern.” Experts say Iran is a short, technical step away from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is considered weapons-grade level.

• Iranian Exiles Sue Ex-Shah's "Chief Torturer": Three Iranian exiles have filed a $225 million lawsuit against Parviz Sabeti in a U.S. federal court, alleging years of torture by the former high-ranking security official under the shah. In the 1970s, Sabeti served as deputy head of SAVAK, the notorious security and intelligence agency of Iran’s last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The plaintiffs claim Sabeti played a key role in institutionalizing torture in Iran, setting the stage for the coercive interrogation methods later adopted by the Islamic republic.

The Big Issue

Negotiating With U.S. ‘Inevitable’

With the return of the Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" policy and Tehran's continued refusal to negotiate with Washington, Iran finds itself in a difficult spot.

Its economy is in poor shape, living costs are going up, and the United States is tightening the noose on Iran’s oil exports.

Majedi, a former Iranian diplomat, said in an op-ed on February 22 that the situation would only get worse for Tehran the longer it waited to directly engage the United States. Otherwise, Iran could be used as a bargaining chip in Washington’s dealings with not only Moscow but also European powers.

He warned that, if Iran fails to persuade Britain, France, and Germany (the E3) that reimposing UN sanctions on Tehran would be unproductive, the E3 might cooperate with Trump to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran in exchange for concessions on his stance regarding the Ukraine war.

“What is certain is that if we don’t negotiate, others will negotiate about us and will make deals over our interests,” he wrote. “Negotiating with America is ultimately inevitable.”

Why It Matters: UN sanctions against Iran were lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

During his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran. His administration also tried to trigger the deal’s “snapback mechanism” to return UN sanctions against Iran, but that attempt failed.

While the nuclear deal is, for all intents and purposes, no longer in effect, it will formally expire in October 2025. What that means is that world powers only have a few months to “snap back” UN sanctions.

The E3 opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and resisted his attempt to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran. But they have in recent months expressed an openness to the possibility, particularly in light of Iran’s advancing nuclear program and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What's Being Said: Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political science at the Missouri University of Science and Technology, echoed Majedi’s sentiment in an interview with RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” he said.

But opponents of talks with Washington continue to insist there is nothing to be gained from negotiating with Trump.

Staunch critics of negotiations have pointed to Trump’s recent public rift with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as evidence that there is no point in talking to the U.S. president.

Specifically, they say the Ukraine mineral deal shows the extent of concessions that Trump expects.

The hardline Keyhan newspaper accused Zelenskyy of “handing over Ukraine’s minerals to Trump” while the conservative state-affiliated Mehr news agency claimed that “Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s fate is what [Iranian] liberals want for Iran.”

Expert Opinion: “This is a nudge to the Islamic republic’s leaders to seriously think about Iran’s situation on the international stage,” Boroujerdi said, referring to Majedi’s call for talks with Trump.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Two years after reemerging from decades in hiding, Parviz Sabeti is facing a multimillion-dollar lawsuit filed by three former Iranian dissidents who accuse the ex-top security official under the shah of years of torture and abuse.

Sabeti in the 1970s served as the deputy head of SAVAK, the feared security and intelligence service of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

RFE/RL’s Radio Farda has obtained a copy of the lawsuit, which was filed on February 10 in a federal court in the city of Orlando in Florida.

The plaintiffs accuse Sabeti of institutionalizing torture in Iran and laying the foundation for abusive interrogation tactics later used by the Islamic republic.

His daughter, Pardis Sabeti, did not respond to Radio Farda's request for comment.

SEE ALSO:

'Hands Are Stained With Blood': Iranians Outraged After Shah-Era Secret-Police Official Attends U.S. Rally

'Institutionalization Of Torture'

The plaintiffs, whose identities remain undisclosed due to what they say is a fear of reprisal, allege in the $225 million lawsuit that they were detained by SAVAK and subjected to “extreme violence including beatings, whippings, stress positions, electrocution, hanging by the wrists, [and] hanging of weights from genitals.”

They say Sabeti “is widely recognized as an architect of the institutionalization of torture" in Iran, including the use of forced public recantations obtained through violent coercion, a practice established under his tenure and rapidly expanded and employed by the Islamic republic of Iran today.

They added that Iran’s clerical establishment, which came to power in 1979 after toppling the shah, “has continued SAVAK's policy of repression, censorship, torture, and executions.”

SEE ALSO:

Lawyer Says Iran Tortured Client To Force Confession In Death Of Security Officer

One notable allegation leveled against Sabeti in the lawsuit is his alleged ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), though the plaintiffs did not provide any evidence for the claim and cited “information and belief.”

Designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the IRGC is a branch of Iran's armed forces founded after the 1979 Islamic revolution. It is tasked with protecting the clerical establishment, exerting military and economic influence, and supporting proxy groups abroad. It has taken on many of the responsibilities of SAVAK.

The plaintiffs said the “collaboration” between Sabeti and individuals affiliated with the IRGC “provides a reasonable basis for fear by plaintiffs” who live outside Iran.

“Sabeti not only had knowledge of the pervasive use of torture applied on behalf of the shah's regime, but was a main advocate for its application,” the plaintiffs alleged.

Monarchists and supporters of Sabeti, including former senior SAVAK official Ahamad Farasati, reject the accusations.

Farasati told Radio Farda that Sabeti was so high-ranking he effectively served as a “deputy prime minister” and was mostly involved in political affairs rather than interrogations and torture.

“I assure you that Sabeti never provided guidance or directions on -- God forbid -- abusing suspects and he himself is staunchly opposed to it,” he claimed.

Farasati denied the use of torture techniques and devices described in the lawsuit but conceded that “maybe there was flogging of feet…but not to torture, rather to get a confession” so that the security apparatus could prevent future incidents.

'Enduring Suffering'

SAVAK was established in 1957 and rights groups have long accused it of torturing dissidents who opposed the rule of the shah.

The U.S. State Department notes that SAVAK as an organization was the first of its kind in Iran and “is generally considered to have taken over certain counterintelligence functions handled by the police, gendarmerie, and military intelligence.”

Raha Bahreini, a human rights lawyer and spokeswoman for Amnesty International, told Radio Farda that “the victims of SAVAK’s crimes have for years been deprived of getting justice.”

She said the lawsuit highlights “the long-term crisis of impunity” for perpetrators of human rights violations in Iran.

“At the heart of this case lies the enduring suffering of torture survivors, who continue to seek justice, truth, and accountability,” Bahreini said.

SEE ALSO:

UN Expert Blasts Iran On Rights Violations, Executions Of Children

In a 1977 interview with The Washington Post, Sabeti claimed that Iranians who feared SAVAK were “influenced by foreign journalists’ accounts,” adding, “Some of the foreign journalists come here… They see SAVAK behind every tree.”

In a 2012 interview with Voice of America, Sabeti stated that he was “opposed” to torture.

“Because I studied law, I have always opposed anything that leads to torture,” he said.

Sabeti had for decades stayed out of the public eye, relocating to Florida after the 1979 Islamic revolution and becoming a real estate developer. He reemerged in February 2023, taking part in an anti-Islamic republic rally in California.

The plaintiffs say it was Sabeti’s public appearance that allowed them “the opportunity to even consider pursuing claims” against him.

Written based on an original report by RFE/RL’s Radio Farda and interviews by Mohammad Zarghami and Reza Jamali.

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL's China Global Affairs Correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Minding The Transatlantic Gap

China is looking to capitalize on a transatlantic rift between the United States and Europe that is widening as U.S. President Donald Trump looks to quickly end the war in Ukraine.

But how much of an opening is there actually for Beijing?

Finding Perspective: The threat of tariffs, a war of words at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, U.S.-Russia talks that excluded Europe and Kyiv, and a standoff at the United Nations over how to commemorate the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine have all been recent fissures between Washington and European governments.

That brought new questions about relying on the United States to European capitals and left an opening for Beijing, which has been trying to woo back Europe over the past four years.

On the sidelines in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held bilateral meetings with several top European officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Spain's foreign minister seems to be at least more open to the idea of keeping China closer amid tensions with the United States.

Jose Manuel Albares told the Financial Times that the European Union should craft its own China policy and not follow the more confrontational line with Beijing advocated by those in the Trump administration.

"Europe must take its own decisions, on its own. And we have to decide when China can be a partner and when China is a competitor," Albares told the newspaper.

How We Got Here: During Trump's first term in office, Washington pushed European governments to take a harder line on China. That led to the bloc labeling China a "systemic rival" in 2019.

The Chinese government's untransparent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, trade, human rights, and supply chain concerns, and Beijing's backing of Russia throughout the war in Ukraine all saw that harder line solidify in Europe under former U.S. President Joe Biden's tenure.

Now amid growing transatlantic tensions, some European governments see following Trump's tough stance on China as a way to win over Washington. Others, like the Spanish government, are arguing to preserve vital economic ties with Beijing, especially amid growing uncertainty about the United States.

This has even led to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, one of Brussels's more hawkish voices on China, calling in January for a new effort to improve relations between Brussels and Beijing.

A True Rift? Tensions on each side of the Atlantic are real.

Following his party's victory in elections on February 23, Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor-in-waiting for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), said the Trump administration "does not care much about the fate of Europe" and that the Continent needs to act accordingly.

"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.A.," he said.

Talk of a seismic shift in the geopolitical order is also under way in Brussels.

One EU official recently back from discussions with U.S. officials told RFE/RL that the White House's focus is on ending the war in Ukraine and that there is a "take it or leave it" attitude from Washington.

The Trump administration wants to "remove the Ukraine issue from the table and move on to other issues. It is becoming clear that Trump's goal is to rule the world together with Russia and China" and work toward "strategically separating them from each other," said the official, who was granted anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.

Why It Matters: Europe may be grappling with a realignment, but that doesn't mean China is its only option to hedge.

As European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visit Washington, von der Leyen is set to arrive in India on February 27.

James Crabtree, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told me that "it's hard to imagine a better time to re-energize Europe's and India's historically lackluster ties" and that a focus of the trip will be technology cooperation.

"A meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council -- only the second since its foundation in 2023 -- offers opportunities to deepen collaboration in areas ranging from artificial intelligence to clean technologies," he said.

China may also be short on opportunities, with most EU members unable to look past its support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine. The bloc's most recent sanctions package passed on February 24 once again included Chinese companies and individuals.

What is likely to emerge is a more fragmented Europe when it comes to China. While some governments look to countries like India, South Korea, and Japan to balance out their foreign policy, others -- such as the current Spanish government and Hungary -- will keep courting Chinese investment and create new openings for Beijing.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. A Reverse Nixon?

China publicly backed the Trump administration's recent talks with the Kremlin, but analysts and former U.S. officials I spoke with mostly said the prospect of a U.S.-Russia reset is also making Beijing "nervous" about having less leverage over its partner.

The Details: "While a complete rapprochement might not be in the cards, they're nervous because if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then Moscow's dependency on China decreases," Dennis Wilder, who was a top White House China adviser to former U.S. President George W. Bush, told me.

One of the hallmarks of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's foreign policy has been a burgeoning strategic partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin that's grown closer since Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Beijing has propped up the Russian economy through enhanced trade and energy purchases while fueling the Kremlin's war effort with the supply of key goods as both Xi and Putin have found common ground in wanting to challenge the West and unseat the United States.

The fear of all that being derailed by a new type of U.S.-Russia relationship born out of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine is real for Beijing.

Wilder says he's had conversations with "very senior Chinese officials" since Trump's election in November who have expressed concern about a potential U.S.-Russia reset.

He says they've used the phrase "Only Trump goes to Moscow," a play on the historical reference to former U.S. President Richard Nixon's landmark visit to Beijing in 1972, when he defied precedent and courted China to exploit its split with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.

2. But Can It Work?

A grand bargain would be a major diplomatic feat, but it's something Trump administration officials have hinted at in public comments of late.

What You Need To Know: The Trump administration has made clear it sees managing a long-term rivalry with China as its top foreign policy objective and may look to deprioritize regions like Europe and the Middle East in order to raise pressure on Beijing in Asia.

Following the talks in Riyadh, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the possibility for future "geopolitical and economic cooperation" between Washington and Moscow was among the key points discussed.

And in an interview this month with The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington was prepared to reset the relationship with the Kremlin following an agreement over Ukraine as a move to end Russia's isolation and its growing dependence on China since the war began.

"It's not in Putin's interest to be the little brother in a coalition with China," Vance said.

The thinking is that even new cracks between the two powers may loosen Moscow's alignment with Beijing and could have a deterrent effect on China, especially if it decides to use military force to take Taiwan.

Still, both Beijing and Moscow are aware of what the White House is trying to do, and Beijing has made a point to show it and Moscow are still a tandem, including a recent phone call between Putin and Xi on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine.

Steve Tsang, director of SOAS University London's China Institute, told me he believes Washington's efforts to reset its Russia ties are also not all bad news for Beijing.

"Xi does not want Putin to fail in the war, and so Trump delivering a peace that mostly meets Russian conditions is a positive," he said. "Who knows who will be the next U.S. president and if there will be a reversal of U.S. posture post-Trump."

3. Taiwan Watches A New U.S. Line On Ukraine

Ukrainians living in Taiwan and local supporters protested outside the de-facto Russian Embassy in Taipei on the eve of the third anniversary of Moscow's invasion.

What It Means: The self-governing island has been a vocal supporter of Kyiv, which the Taiwanese government sees as a foil for its own tenuous geopolitical position where China has long threatened to invade and annex Taiwan if it refused to peacefully accept unification.

Those parallels have grown since Trump's election. The United States is Taiwan's largest military backer and its support is considered vital for its survival, but Trump's global shakeup, including launching negotiations with Russia without Ukraine and threatening to cut off future aid to Kyiv, has brought anxiety to Taiwan about a similar withdrawal of American assistance.

When I was in Taiwan in December, I spoke with several senior officials who said they were closely watching what happened to Kyiv on the battlefield and with the new U.S. administration.

So far, the White House has reaffirmed its support for Taiwan, but Washington has also threatened tariffs on the island's semiconductor industry, which is responsible for around 60 percent of world production for microchips and 90 percent of the most-advanced ones needed for the global AI boom.

Across The Supercontinent

Choking Off Iranian Oil: Earlier this month, the United States brought in a new tranche of sanctions on Iranian oil, my colleague Kian Sharifi and I reported. The move is seen as an opening shot against Tehran and Beijing -- Iran's top oil customer.

New Bridge Deal: The Transport Ministry of Tajikistan and the Tajik branch of the Chinese company Zhejiang Communications Construction Group (ZCCC) signed a cooperation agreement for the construction of what will be the longest road bridge in Central Asia.

New Tools For Tashkent: Uzbekistan showcased on February 25 newly purchased Chinese-made air-defense systems, including the FM-90 short-range surface-to-air missile system and the KS-1C medium-to-long-range air-defense system.

One Thing To Watch

A Chinese-crewed cargo ship is detained in Taiwan's southern port of Tainan after a key Taiwan-Penghu Internet cable was mysteriously severed.

Taiwanese prosecutors are investigating whether this was an accident or part of a broader pattern of disruptions to vital communication lines, but the country's Coast Guard released footage of them apprehending the vessel.

The move comes amid growing tensions from a rise of so-called gray zone tactics, the term often used by Taiwanese officials to refer to the hybrid tactics used to intimidate the island but which remain below the threshold for war.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, said Tehran would not bow to pressure from the United States, a day after Washington imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil industry.

Lavrov's one-day trip to Tehran on February 25 comes a week after the first high-level talks between Moscow and Washington in three years.

The talks in Saudi Arabia on February 18 have raised hopes of a reset between Russia and the United States after tensions soared following the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Analysts said the meeting in Tehran could be the Kremlin checking in to make sure Iran's stance on key issues is in line with Moscow -- especially regarding relations with Washington -- or that Lavrov could be delivering a message from the Saudi Arabian talks.

The potential rapprochement has fueled concerns in Iran that Moscow could abandon Tehran, an ally, to revive relations with Washington. Others in the Islamic republic hope Moscow can mediate an end to the standoff between Iran and the United States.

“They tend to send some diplomats to Iran at least assuage concerns because as you know there is a long-standing apprehension in Iran that the Russians may potentially sell out Iran to the United States,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, told Radio Farda.

SEE ALSO:

Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks With Apprehension

Lavrov's visit came a day after Washington imposed a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry, the main source of the country's income.

Earlier this month, Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, saying Tehran was "too close" to weaponizing its nuclear program.

In 2018, during his first term in office, Trump pulled the United States out of an agreement between Tehran and world powers that placed limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Since then, the Islamic republic has ramped up its uranium enrichment, raising fears that it is close to developing a nuclear warhead.

"There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the U.S. as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way," Araghchi said at a joint news conference with Lavrov

Lavrov said diplomatic measures were still on the table for resolving issues around Iran's nuclear program.

The prospect of improved relations between Washington and Moscow have raised concern among some in Tehran who feel it could impact Iran.

Iran's conservative daily Jomhuri Eslami on February 25 warned of a "grand bargain" between Washington and Moscow that could result in Russia "turning a blind eye" to any potential U.S. military action against Iran.

The daily Etemad suggested this week that Lavrov could carry a message from Washington that includes proposals for reducing tensions between Iran and the United States and paving the way for a new round of talks between the two countries.

SEE ALSO:

Can Israel Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program?

The daily also said the aim of Lavrov's trip to Iran could be to become acquainted with Tehran's positions before a potential meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the future.

"What Putin is pursuing is not a deal regarding Iran but merely the national interests of Russia," Hossein Shalevarzi, a former head of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, said on X last week.

Despite deep mistrust, Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Moscow was hit by a slew of Western sanctions.

Iran has provided Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

“The aim of the trip is to put pressure on Tehran to be in line with Moscow,” Damon Golriz, a lecturer at the Hague University of Applied Sciences, told Radio Farda.

Other Iranian observers say a potential U.S.-Russia reset could be an opportunity for Tehran.

Tehran-based analyst Abdolreza Farajirad said in an interview with Etemad that Lavrov's trip to Iran comes amid "a deadlock" between Tehran and Washington and a worsening economy that has turned into a major challenge for the Islamic republic.

"If Russia can act as a mediator between Tehran and Washington, it can be considered a positive development," Farajirad said.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at concerns in Tehran that Russia might sell Iran out in order to get a good deal with the United States.

What You Need To Know

• Apprehensive Iran Watches U.S.-Russia Talks: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Riyadh on February 18 in what were the first direct talks between top American and Russian officials on ending the war in Ukraine. The development has fueled concerns in Tehran that Moscow will abandon Iran to revive relations with Washington.

• Potential For Saudi Mediation Between Tehran And Washington: Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered to mediate talks between its rival Iran and ally the United States. Analysts say the Saudis are driven by ensuring stability in the region and a desire to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb as they seek to become a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse.

• Khamenei Wants Qatar To Release Iranian Assets: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 19 told the visiting Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to ignore U.S. “pressure” and release Iranian assets in Qatar. Around $6 billion in frozen funds were transferred from South Korea to Qatar as part of a 2023 deal with the United States that included the release of American citizens in Iran. Masud Aflak, a political analyst based in the United Arab Emirates, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Doha will never release Tehran's assets without an agreement between Iran and the United States.

The Big Issue

Iran Fears Being Hung Out To Dry

The Riyadh talks ended after more than fours hours with the top U.S. and Russian diplomats agreeing to move quickly to normalize relations and start negotiations on ending the Ukraine conflict, which marks its three-year anniversary on February 24.

Almost as soon as Rubio and Lavrov finished their meeting, online chatter among Iranians focused on one question: Could Russia sell Iran out to get a deal with the United States?

Fueling this sentiment is a comment by Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who said on February 15 that “it is very important” to prevent Russia’s alliances with Iran, China, and North Korea from solidifying.

Why It Matters: Tehran and Moscow have grown closer and enhanced military cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and was hit by a slew of Western sanctions. Iran has notably been providing Russia with cheap but deadly drones that have been used against Ukraine, though both Tehran and Moscow deny it.

In January, they signed a 20-year strategic agreement to strengthen economic, political, and military ties.

Iran relies on Russia and China to protect itself against sanctions as well as resolutions tabled at the UN Security Council.

What's Being Said: The moderate conservative newspaper Jomhuriy-e Eslami, which has long warned against trusting Moscow, charged on February 19 that the “repercussions” of any U.S.-Russia agreement will impact Iran because Moscow has a record of going back on its promises to its allies.

Iran-based commentator Saeed Meshkat said he was “pessimistic” about the talks because “Ukraine and Iran will ultimately become bargaining chips” in future negotiations.

Mohsen Milani, a political analyst based in the United States, urged Tehran to reconsider its position on direct talks with Washington before Russia can negotiate Iran’s rights away to secure its own interests.

Expert Opinion: “As a principle in international relations, power is a determining factor. Naturally, it is not strange for super powers to use smaller countries as tools and leverage to secure their interests,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

After facilitating the first high-level talks between U.S. and Russian officials since the Ukraine war began, Saudi Arabia is now reportedly positioning itself as a mediator in another high-stakes negotiation -- this time between the United States and Iran.

CNN, which first broke the story, reports that it remains unclear whether the Saudis have formally offered to mediate. Still, analysts suggest Riyadh has strong incentives to broker talks and may be better positioned than traditional mediators to bring the U.S. and Iran to the negotiating table.

“Riyadh is looking for a way to address concerns around Iran's nuclear program, as well as its regional activities and its support for proxies,” says Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

“Given Riyadh's interest in avoiding an escalation in the Gulf, it probably sees diplomacy as a more effective means of addressing these issues, rather than military action,” he added.

Saudi Seeking Stability

Saudi Arabia cut relations with Iran in 2016 after its diplomatic missions were attacked by protesters angry over Riyadh’s execution of a top Shi’ite cleric. Two years later, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Saudis were among Iran’s adversaries who celebrated the move.

In 2019, Yemen’s Iran-backed Huthi rebels launched a major drone and missile attack against Saudi oil facilities, severely disrupting the Kingdom’s crude production.

But much has changed since then, thanks to a Chinese-brokered deal in March 2023 that led to the restoration of relations between Tehran and Riyadh.

Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has long sought to position his country as a global economic and diplomatic powerhouse under his Vision 2030 plan, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil.

To achieve that, however, Saudi Arabia needs stability in the Middle East.

“Saudi Arabia's willingness to moderate between Tehran and Washington was not borne of a political vacuum,” said Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

“By stylistically accommodating Tehran through diplomatic normalization but substantively remaining in the Western orbit, Riyadh is hoping to insulate itself from being the place where a larger regional conflict involving Iran is adjudicated.”

SEE ALSO:

Can Israel Destroy Iran's Nuclear Program?

While the Islamic republic officially insists it is not pursuing a nuclear weapon, there has been growing discussion in Iran about weaponizing its nuclear program -- especially as Tehran's regional proxies, long seen as its primary deterrent against Israel and the United States, have suffered setbacks.

Abdulaziz Sager, the chairman of the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Riyadh “firmly says” it’s up to Iran whether it wants to maintain its peaceful nuclear program.

He added, however, that Iran’s expansion of its nuclear program following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear accord “does not give assurances” that it will remain peaceful.

Iranian Incentives

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month dismissed the prospect of direct talks with Trump over a new nuclear deal, insisting that the U.S. president cannot be trusted.

This is where Saudi Arabia can prove decisive and flex its diplomatic muscles, experts say.

On paper, the Saudis can offer to the Iranians things that traditional mediators, namely Oman and Qatar, may not be able to offer, said Brew.

Saudi Arabia has arguably benefitted more than Iran from the 2023 normalization deal, with many in Iran complaining that Tehran has gained little economically from restoring relations with the Sunni powerhouse.

“Iran is looking for ways of ensuring that it's going to receive a degree of economic benefit from an agreement, and Saudi Arabia is a natural way of obtaining that if the Saudis can offer investment, trade, and other benefits,” Brew said.

SEE ALSO:

With Trump 2.0 Looming, Saudi Arabia Pursues 'Cautious Detente' With Longtime Rival Iran

Another incentive for agreeing to Saudi mediation is that just like former U.S. President Barack Obama could not guarantee that the Trump administration would remain in the 2015 nuclear deal, Trump cannot allay Iranian concerns about the next administration sticking to the deal.

“On the other hand, [Muhammad bin Salman] is going to be around for a long time, and there’s the potential for Saudi offers to sweeten the deal,” Brew argued.

Iran and the U.S. initially held secret talks in 2013 before holding public meetings that eventually led to the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015.

“Iran is likely to engage, especially if it is private, and force concessions simply for staying at the table or for turning off the spigot to activities it can easily resume at a time of its own choosing,” FDD’s Taleblu said.

Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda contributed to this story.

Iran has charged British citizens Craig and Lindsay Foreman with espionage, the country’s judiciary spokesman announced on February 18.

Asghar Jahangir said the couple had entered Iran “under the guise of tourists” and “collected intelligence in several provinces in the country.”

He said they were detained by the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the southern Kerman Province.

The U.K. Foreign Office confirmed their arrest on February 13.

According to Lindsay Foreman’s social media, the couple were on a motorbiking trip across the world, with the final destination being Australia.

British media say they entered Iran on December 30 via Armenia and intended to leave the country via the Pakistani border after five days. They had stayed in Tabriz, Tehran, Isfahan, but never checked into their hotel in Kerman.

Ebrahim Hamidi, the top judge in Kerman Province, alleged that “it has become clear” that the couple “have ties with several institutes linked to intelligence services.”

SEE ALSO:

Iranian-American Freed In Prisoner Exchange Accuses Iran Of 'Selling' Its Own People

The U.K. Foreign Office has not commented on the charge. Britain currently advises its citizens against all travel to Iran, citing “significant risk” of arrest, questioning, or detention.

Iran is accused by human rights groups of engaging in “hostage diplomacy,” taking foreign and dual nationals for leverage in dealings with the West.

U.S. intelligence has concluded that the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program in the next few months are high, according to major American media, but the jury is out on whether Israel can destroy its archfoe's nuclear facilities on its own.

Iran is widely believed to be at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades, mostly due to Israeli actions in the past year that severely damaged Tehran's regional network and weakened its air defenses and missile production capabilities.

This assessment is "not strange" because the possibility has been floated for months, specifically following Israeli strikes on Iran last October, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"But this now being reported by major outlets could be linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's approach toward Iran, which is a mixture of a desire to strike a nuclear deal while threatening military action," he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Potential Israeli Attack

The Israeli attack last October was in response to the Islamic republic launching 200 ballistic missiles, which penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses but caused little damage.

While Tehran downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, satellite images quickly showed Israel had successfully degraded Iran's air defense and missile-production capabilities.

SEE ALSO:

Khamenei Dismisses Prospect of Iran-U.S. Talks, Calling Them 'Pointless'

Analysts say the attack was calibrated, thanks to pressure from former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which convinced Israel not to hit Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.

The attack marked the largest aerial offensive against Iran since the 1980s and showed that Israel can target facilities deep inside Iranian territory.

But Israel is unlikely to be able to destroy Iran's nuclear program without help from the United States.

Iran's two key nuclear sites are the underground fuel enrichment plant in Natanz and the enrichment site in Fordow, which is dug into a mountain. Some have expressed doubt about whether even U.S. weapons can reliably penetrate and completely neutralize those facilities.

Since taking office in January, Trump has expressed a desire to make a "verifiable nuclear peace agreement" with Iran, but his language has become noticeably more threatening over time. While Trump initially talked about wanting to see Iran "prosper", he more recently said he would "love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a staunch critic of negotiating with Iran and he opposed the 2015 nuclear deal that was signed during U.S. President Barack Obama's administration.

While Netanyahu has a great rapport with Trump, there is no guarantee that he will reconsider attacking Iran's nuclear sites if Trump were to reach a deal with Tehran.

"For Netanyahu, no deal with Iran is better than any deal. He probably worries that Trump might give away the whole store to the Iranians," says Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

Advanced Nuclear Program

Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term in office and reimposed sanctions against Tehran.

The Islamic republic insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention to develop a bomb.

But it is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels and far above the 3.67 percent limit under the nuclear accord. As of October 2024, Iran has just over 182 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent. Around 42 kilograms are needed to produce one bomb, meaning Tehran has enough to make four bombs.

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its 2024 annual threat report that it does not believe Iran is currently pursuing a bomb, but its activities in recent years "better position it to produce a nuclear device."

If the Islamic republic chose to make a bomb, it would be mainly limited by the time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead, which can take anywhere from a few months to two years.

The New York Times earlier this month reported that there are indications Iran is looking into quickly building a crude nuclear weapon to ward off an attack.

But the D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security argues that even if Iran were to build a crude weapon in half a year, it risks being detected in just a few months, which "is more than sufficient for a devastating military response."

Vaez said while there is a military option in dealing with Iran's nuclear program, there is no military solution.

"Iran's most important asset is the knowledge that it has gained, not the physical infrastructure on the ground or in bunkered facilities," he added.

Fereshteh Ghazi of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this story.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran continues to increase its monthly production of enriched uranium to near weapons grade and time is running out to reach an agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that Tehran is increasing its monthly production of 60 percent enriched uranium by almost sevenfold.

"Iran will have about 250 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent by the time the IAEA’s next report is presented in the coming weeks," Grossi said on February 14 in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

"It's clearly a sign that should be taken very seriously. So this is why I believe that we shouldn't be wasting more time. I hope that we can refocus on Iran," he said.

Earlier this month he called on the Trump administration and Iran to engage in dialogue to advance the nuclear talks, stressing that dialogue is "absolutely necessary" to make progress.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said last week that talks with the United States were "not smart, wise or honorable" after President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" policy toward Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero to push it into a deal that would severely constrain its nuclear program.

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Iran Says Ready To Negotiate With U.S., But Not Under 'Maximum Pressure'

Trump said at the time that he was “unhappy” to sign the maximum pressure order, but said he had to do it “because we have to be strong and firm.” Iran is "too close" to a nuclear weapon, he added, saying he is willing to talk with the Iranian leadership and hoped a deal could be reached.

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian also supported Ali Khamenei's stance, claiming in a speech on the anniversary of the 1979 revolution that Trump wants to bring the revolution to its "knees."

Grossi said lack of a U.S. special representative for Iran is a hindrance.

"We are eagerly waiting for a U.S. envoy on Iran to be appointed so we can start exchanging views and seeing what the next steps will be," Grossi said. "We are in contact, but we haven't been able to have a political conversation with someone who is implementing the policies of the president."

The IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution in November ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report by spring aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

With reporting by Reuters

For the third consecutive year, the Iranian government has been excluded from the prestigious Munich Security Conference (MSC).

Instead, Masih Alinejad, a prominent U.S.-based Iranian women's rights activist, will participate in two panels.

While Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran and a prominent opposition figure, was initially “invited” to the conference, he was later “disinvited” -- twice.

Pahlavi, who attended the conference in 2023 following widespread protests in Iran, accused the German government of influencing the conference's decision to rescind his invitation. In a statement, he said, “The ayatollah (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is pulling the strings in Berlin.”

A spokesperson for the security conference said: "The MSC chairman, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, had also already informally invited Mr. Pahlavi to MSC 2025. After consultation with the German government, Mr Heusgen decided not to formalize the invitation to Mr Pahlavi.”

In response to these allegations, a spokesperson for the German Foreign Ministry told RFE/RL's Radio Farda, “Of course, the federal government is in constant contact with the Munich Security Conference,” while emphasizing that, “In principle, the MSC decides independently on its invitations.”

Protest Outside Venue

While Pahlavi and Alinejad represent two of the most visible figures of the Iranian opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) -- an exiled opposition group also known as MEK that is considered a terrorist group by Tehran -- will hold a protest outside the official conference venue in Munich.

Although these figures and groups oppose each other , they agree on one issue: to push Western countries to take a tougher stance on Iran, including halting negotiations with Tehran and increasing support for Iran’s opposition groups.

Despite the absence of the Iranian government, it's still possible Iran will be discussed on the conferences' various panels, whether it be the country's controversial nuclear program, relations with its proxies, or the regime’s ongoing disregard for human rights.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at Iran’s continuing struggles with blackouts and how it is frustrating a public already at its limits.

What You Need To Know

• Iran Faces Unplanned Blackouts And Forced Closures: Government offices, banks, and schools have been closed as the authorities struggle to meet the rising demand for electricity. Unplanned blackouts have disrupted everyday life across more than half of the country.

• Rial Sinks To Record Low As Economy Worsens: The Iranian currency plunged to a record low against the dollar earlier this week after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to dismiss negotiations with the United States over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. The Iranian leader's position has outraged the public as the country's economy continues to struggle under crippling U.S. sanctions, leading many to argue that, at this rate, another round of nationwide protests is a matter of when, not if.

• Israel 'Likely' To Hit Iranian Nuclear Sites This Year: U.S. intelligence has concluded that Israel is "likely" to strike Iran's nuclear program in the coming months, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. The assessment is that Israel sees an opening to hit Iran due to Tehran's increased security vulnerabilities. Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that this possibility has been floated for months, but the recent reports by major outlets could be an attempt by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to bring Iran to the negotiating table.

The Big Issue

Blame Game Heats Up

Tehran faced extensive power outages this week, disrupting daily life and sparking public frustration.

The crisis, which began earlier this year with electricity cuts to industrial zones, has now reached the capital, leaving residents without hot water, functioning elevators, and access to parking due to power-dependent systems. Traffic chaos ensued as streetlights failed.

Government officials this week traded blame, with the Energy Ministry claiming power plants are not receiving enough fuel and the Oil Ministry accusing the national power company of poor management.

Social media erupted with complaints. Tehran's mayor distanced the municipality from responsibility, citing localized power failures as the cause.

Why It Matters: Although Iran holds the world's second-largest natural gas reserves, energy shortages remain a recurring issue during summer and winter.

Iran's energy subsidies keep bills low, encouraging overconsumption.

However, the situation is further exacerbated by severe mismanagement and aging infrastructure, which have greatly hindered the country's ability to meet the growing demand for gas.

But the public's patience is running out. The prospects of talks with the United States are dimming, the economy is worsening, and blackouts are becoming more frequent. Users on social media reported that after outages hit Tehran on February 11, people could be heard chanting against the Islamic republic from their windows.

What's Being Said: As the oil and energy ministries lash out at each other in the media, other government officials have sought to calm tensions.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, while conceding that power plants are not receiving enough gas, insisted this week that no single ministry is solely responsible.

Mohammad Allahdad, deputy head of the state-run Tavanir power company, pinned the energy imbalance on "illegally operated" bitcoin miners.

On social media, one user echoed a widely shared sentiment about Iran's nuclear program, writing: "What is the purpose of nuclear energy when we have neither electricity nor a bomb?"

Expert Opinion: Tehran-based academic Hatam Qaderi to Radio Farda on the possibility of nationwide protests: "Iran has been in a restless period for a long time, so anything can happen…. The Islamic republic has spent billions of dollars on the nuclear program and [expanding its regional influence] and people are experiencing ruin."

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Public outrage is mounting in Iran as the country's struggling economy worsens under crippling U.S. sanctions.

The national currency plunged to a record low on February 11 soon after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the restart of a "maximum pressure" campaign on the Islamic republic.

In response, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to dismiss the prospect of negotiations with the United States over Iran's disputed nuclear program.

A nuclear deal is seen as key to Washington lifting economic sanctions on Iran, which has witnessed rising unemployment and growing poverty in recent years.

Quick Turnabout

For months, Iranian officials have signaled the country was open to negotiating with Trump.

That is despite Trump withdrawing the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers and reimposing sanctions during his first term in office. In response, Tehran significantly expanded its nuclear program, though it maintains it is not looking to weaponize it.

Khamenei on January 28 appeared to give his blessing to talks with Trump, saying it's "possible to make a deal" with someone you know and can prepare for.

But the Iranian leader changed tack on February 7, saying it would "not be intelligent, wise, or honorable" to negotiate with Washington because it cannot be trusted.

"A portion of society pinned their hopes" on reformist President Masud Pezeshkian, who was elected in 2024, said Saeed Peyvandi, a professor of sociology at Paris 13 University.

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China Is Iran's Top Oil Customer. Can Trump Use Sanctions To Change That?

"Now they will see their lives getting worse," Peyvandi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. "This will make the prospects of change in the [Islamic republic] impossible in the eyes of the people…. An angry and hungry society can take to the streets at any moment."

There have been violent protests in recent years over Iran's freefalling economy.

Frustration And Criticism

Khamenei's apparent rejection of negotiations with the United States has led to an outpouring of frustration and criticism on social media.

Some Iranians on X asked why an "unelected, lifelong official" gets to decide what is best for an entire nation.

Others called on Pezeshkian to resign if he was unable to deliver on his campaign pledge to ease tensions with the West.

Khamenei's comments as well as Trump's decision to resume a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran appeared to trigger the sudden drop of the value of the rial against the U.S. dollar.

The falling value of the rial in recent years has exacerbated the cost of living in Iran. A recent report by Iran's statistical authority said that around a third of Iranians earn less than $2 a day and struggle to afford basic necessities.

Economy journalist Zohreh Irani pointed to the depreciation of the rial and declared, "You will negotiate, I promise you."

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The Farda Briefing: Iran Wants To Negotiate With U.S., But What Will It Concede?

Joking about the speed with which the rial is falling, Iranian poet Morteza Lotfi wrote on X, "We worked 9 hours today but we're poorer than the morning!"

Ata Mohamed Tabriz, a political analyst based in Turkey, told Radio Farda that Iranians have expressed "serious anger" since Khamenei's comments.

"There is a chance the anger will grow…. But it doesn't look like the Islamic republic is going to do anything about it," he added.

Hooman Askary and Elaheh Ravanshad of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.

U.S. President Donald Trump says he believes a deal with Iran over its nuclear program can be reached as Tehran is eager to negotiate and avoid an escalation that could involve a military option.

Speaking in an interview on Fox News late on February 10, Trump said Iranian officials were "worried and frightened" of the consequences should a deal not be reached, hours after Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian questioned Washington’s sincerity in seeking negotiations with Tehran.

"Everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of them. I would prefer that not happen," Trump said.

"You cannot allow Iran…to have a nuclear weapon, but there's two ways to stopping them: with bombs or a written piece of paper.... I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

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Iran Says Ready To Negotiate With U.S., But Not Under 'Maximum Pressure'

Trump said Tehran has been weakened by a "massive loss" to its air defenses, an apparent reference to Israeli strikes in late October that analysts have said dealt a "significant blow" to Iran's ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week dismissed the prospect of nuclear talks with the United States, insisting negotiations would not address Iran's problems days after Trump had talked of making a deal where Iranians could "get on" with their lives.

On February 4, Trump signed an order to restore his "maximum economic pressure" policy on Iran aimed at hurting its oil exports and slowing its nuclear program, which Tehran claims is for civilian purposes.

A landmark deal with world powers in 2015 had restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

But Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement during his first term and reimposed sanctions in 2018, leading Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment and limit international inspections of its nuclear sites.

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China Is Iran's Top Oil Customer. Can Trump Use Sanctions To Change That?

When he pulled out of the nuclear deal, Trump said Tehran was not living up to the spirit of the deal and was continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons. He also accused Iran of supporting extremist violence in the region, which Tehran denied.

Trump told Fox News that any new agreement with Tehran must include being able to monitor, inspect, and verify Iran's nuclear activities and destroy nuclear material or simply ensure that "it is no longer nuclear."

He did not give any further details of what a deal would encompass.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country is ready to negotiate with Washington regarding its nuclear program and related sanctions, but he said talks couldn’t take place under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy.

"The lifting of sanctions requires negotiations, but not within the framework of a 'maximum pressure' policy, because it would not be a negotiation but a form of surrender," Araqchi said on social media.

"Iran does not want to negotiate with a country that is simultaneously imposing new sanctions," he said.

Trump on February 4 signed an order to restore his "maximum economic pressure" policy on Iran aimed at hurting its oil exports and slowing its nuclear program.

SEE ALSO:

Trump Brings Back 'Maximum Pressure' -- And Offers Iran An Olive Branch

He ordered the Treasury Department to impose the pressure through sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on individuals and entities that violate existing sanctions.

He also directed the Treasury and State Departments to implement a campaign aimed at "driving Iran's oil exports to zero."

As he signed the memo, Trump described it as very tough but also said he was open to a deal with Iran and expressed a willingness to talk to the Iranian leadership.

"With me, it's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," Trump added.

A landmark deal with world powers in 2015 restricted Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

But Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement during his first term and reimposed sanctions in 2018, leading Tehran to accelerate its uranium enrichment and limit international inspections of its nuclear sites.

When he pulled out of the nuclear deal, Trump said Tehran was not living up to the spirit of the deal and was continuing attempts to develop nuclear weapons. He also accused Iran of supporting extremist violence in the region, which Tehran denied.

Araqchi said that “Iran has already made abundantly clear that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons."

He added it was “not difficult to reach practical assurances that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, provided that objective guarantees are also provided that hostile measures against Iran -- including economic pressures and sanctions -- will be effectively terminated.”

A day earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the prospect of nuclear talks with the United States, insisting that negotiations would not address Iran's problems days after Trump talked of making a deal where Iranians could "get on" with their lives.

SEE ALSO:

China Is Iran's Top Oil Customer. Can Trump Use Sanctions To Change That?

"The reality that we must understand is that negotiating with America has no effect in resolving the country's problems," Khamenei said on February 7 in an annual address to Iranian Air Force officers.

The latest comments come as several thousand Iranians from across Europe rallied in Paris on February 8, urging world leaders to put more pressure on Iran’s ruling clerics.

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"Instead of appeasing the mullahs, [the world] should stand side by side with the Iranian people," Maryam Radjavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, told the rally.

The council is the political wing of the People's Mujahedin of Iran, which Tehran regards as a "terrorist" organization.

"The Iranian region will fall like the Syrian regime fell -- at a speed that no one would have predicted," Riad al-Asaad, a former Syrian rebel leader, told the gathering by a video link.

Tehran has been accused by international organizations, Western leaders, and activists of rights violations, most recently linked to massive street protests that erupted across Iran in 2022 following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly violating the hijab law.

With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, and AFP

The United States has imposed sanctions on a network of people and firms accused of facilitating the sale of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to bring Iran’s crude exports to zero.

The new tranche of sanctions is an opening shot against Beijing and Tehran, designed to put China on notice without disrupting back-channel discussions to explore the potential for a deal with Iran that restricts its nuclear program.

Analysts say these sanctions -- which targeted individuals and vessels linked to the so-called shadow fleet of ships that transport embargoed Iranian oil -- could be effective but will not drive Iran’s oil exports down to zero. Tougher measures would be needed to do that -- going after Chinese institutions, such as banks that process oil transactions, for example-- but that could risk escalating tensions between the world’s top two economies.

“This is a toe in the water, but not because Trump necessarily wants to tread carefully,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Finance and Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. “This is a way to send a message and put everyone involved in moving Iranian oil on notice.”

Why Is Trump Hitting Iran?

Iran’s economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, which the U.S. State Department on February 6 said are used to fund “terrorists and proxy groups,” referring to Iran’s network of regional armed groups that oppose Israel and the U.S.

The new sanctions target over a dozen people and companies in China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, including Iranian and Indian citizens and crew management firms as well as a collection of tankers.

“These sanctions, and what is sure to follow, will almost certainly have an impact,” said Nader Itayim, a Middle East energy expert at the U.K.-based Argus Media. “The question really is how big that impact might be. And that will ultimately depend on how seriously the Trump administration chooses to go after the Iranian oil trade.”

The 2015 nuclear deal lifted U.S. sanctions, allowing Iran to sell oil. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, reimposing sanctions that cut exports to around 400,000 barrels per day.

Iran later boosted sales through sanctions evasion, rising Chinese demand, and looser U.S. enforcement under former President Joe Biden.

SEE ALSO:

Trump Brings Back 'Maximum Pressure' -- And Offers Iran An Olive Branch

The new sanctions are part of the Trump administration’s return to the "maximum pressure" campaign that defined the Republican president’s Iran policy in his first term. Trump says Iran is "too close" to developing a nuclear bomb, while Tehran has long claimed its atomic program is peaceful.

“One of his objectives now is to bankrupt Iran,” Keatinge said. “Since [Trump] was last president, the sanctions community at large -- public and private -- have learned a lot about how to target a country's oil revenue and go after the broader infrastructure, largely from the experience with Russia's own shadow fleet.”

As part of its effort to evade Western sanctions on its oil exports and help fund its war against Ukraine, Russia has employed a shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers largely registered in non-Western jurisdictions to export the majority of its oil to market.

How Does The 'Shadow Fleet' Operate?

Iran’s own “shadow fleet” of tankers has been crucial to its ability to evade sanctions and covertly transport oil to China and other destinations.

This strategy includes ship-to-ship transfers, intermediaries, concealed financial transactions, and rebranding the oil to disguise its Iranian origin, making it appear to come from another country.

These methods have allowed Iran to keep moving oil and generating revenue despite sanctions.

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Why Are U.S. Sanctions Against Iran's Oil Exports Ineffective?

According to United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit group that campaigns against threats it says are posed by Tehran, 587 million barrels of oil were moved by Iran in 2024 and 91 percent of those exports went to China.

China has long been the largest buyer of Iranian oil, but since 2022 it has stopped officially purchasing it to avoid U.S. sanctions, according to data from commodities research firm Kpler.

Despite the official stop in purchases, billions of dollars' worth of sanctioned Iranian oil have still found their way to China through the shadow fleet network used by Iran.

What's Trump’s Next Move?

U.S. officials have sought to prevent Iran from shipping the oil by pressing China and other countries not to participate, and imposing sanctions on vessels that it believed could help transport the oil.

The latest round of sanctions targeted vessels and shipping companies said to be involved in moving Iranian oil and Keatinge, the expert from RUSI, says this reflects the evolving playbook developed in recent years as the United States and its allies have targeted ships moving Russian oil.

He says these measures could be expanded beyond just targeting ships that move the oil to also sanction other aspects of the shadow fleet infrastructure, such as the companies that insure the vessels, the agencies that recruit the crews, the ports that receive the ships, and a broader diplomatic campaign to pressure the countries that register them.

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Argus Media’s Itayim believes such moves are likely to scare off “the more risk-averse Chinese buyers” but would have a limited impact in curbing the flow of Iranian oil. To drive Iranian oil exports down further, he says, would require more pressure on Chinese ports and on buyers and intermediaries, including even banks in the country.

Doing so could have ripple effects on Washington’s ties with Beijing and escalate tensions, which were recently inflamed with a new round of tit-for-tat tariffs on February 4.

Keatinge says that curbing Iranian oil could be part of a broader conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the recent sanctions provide a way to ramp up pressure on Tehran without fueling additional tensions with Beijing.

“China is the big problem to solve if you want to squeeze Iranian oil, but does Trump want a sanctions war with Xi?” he said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with acting Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya and two other leaders of the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group in Tehran on February 8, Iranian state media reported.

The reports quoted Khamenei as saying the people of Gaza had defeated Israel and the United States in the recent conflict and photos were posted of Khamenei meeting Hayya, Muhammad Darwish, the head of Hamas's leadership council, and senior Hamas official Nizar Awadallah.

SEE ALSO:

Diminished Hamas Remains Dominant In Gaza Despite Israel War

Iran supports Hamas in its war with Israel and views the Palestinian group as a key ally in its broader strategy to oppose Israeli and Western influence in the Middle East.

The West accuses Tehran of fomenting extremist violence in the region through the use of proxies, such as Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah, also listed as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and other countries.

The meeting came on the same day that Hamas freed three more Israeli hostages taken in an October 2023 attack on Israel.

Eli Sharabi, 52, Ohad Ben-Ami, 56, and Or Levi, 34, were first handed over to the Red Cross and then to the Israeli military. The hostages had been in captivity for 491 days.

Before they were handed over to the Red Cross, the hostages -- looking pale and exhausted -- were paraded on a stage before a crowd in Gaza by Hamas members, a move that Israel condemned.

"The shocking images we saw today will not pass without response," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said.

The hospital treating the released hostages said Levy and Sharabi were in a "poor medical condition" and that Ben-Ami was in a "severe nutritional state."

The Israeli Hostages and Missing Families Forum campaign group called the images "disturbing" and show that "we must get them all out."

"Our hearts tremble and our minds struggle to comprehend the sight of Or, who has returned to us in such a devastating state. His face bears witness to the hell he endured during 491 days in the hands of Hamas monsters," a statement by the Levy family stated.

With the latest returns, 73 out of the 251 hostages taken during the October 2023 attack still remain in Gaza. The Israeli military has said 34 of those taken are now dead.

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In exchange for the released hostages, Israel is set to free 183 Palestinian prisoners, 18 of whom were sentenced to life in prison.

Israeli authorities on February 8 began the process of this prisoner release, freeing dozens of Palestinians from incarceration.

The truce and the hostage release, agreed on January 15 after months of negotiations, is the first step in a multistage process aimed at ending the 15-month conflict in Gaza.

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How The Israel-Hamas War Reshaped The Middle East

The conflict broke out when Iran-backed Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages to Gaza.

Israel retaliated by launching a devastating war in the Palestinian enclave that has killed over 46,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.

With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP