ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- In the aftermath of the worst unrest in Kazakhstan's 30 years of independence, it became clear that bloodshed on the streets was accompanied by a power struggle at the very highest levels of government.
And even as officials tried to frame the violence that left at least 238 people dead as an intricate plot involving bandits and thousands of foreign-trained terrorists, another theory was emerging -- one seemingly supported by the hirings and firings that followed.
That was the notion that close relatives of the former president -- still viewed as the country's ultimate power-wielder prior to the events -- had attempted to unseat the man whom he chose to succeed him as head of state.
Nearly two years after the January 2022 events, prosecutors might be warming to that idea.
Then again, with all the most important trials connected to the violence taking place behind closed doors, "there is a risk that this tragedy will remain a black spot in the history of Kazakhstan where we will never know what really happened," said Bakytzhan Toregozhina, a veteran rights activist who told RFE/RL that Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev is failing on a promise to provide the public with "answers to all their questions" about the bloodshed.
From 'Person Of Interest' To Suspect?
At the beginning of last year, Toqaev was a president in name, but hardly a commander in chief. His octogenarian predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbaev, had retired upward, giving himself the post of chairman of the powerful Security Council -- a body that Toqaev had a seat on.
Another Security Council seat-holder was Nazarbaev lieutenant Karim Masimov, the chairman of the Committee for National Security (KNB), an independence-era version of the Soviet Union's KGB.
In the days following devastating clashes and looting in Almaty and several other cities on January 5-6, Toqaev's office announced that Masimov had been arrested along with three of his deputies.
By that time the president had informed Kazakhs in an emergency address that he had taken control of the Security Council.
He did not mention Nazarbaev. But the former president wasn't the only question mark in this dizzying game of musical chairs.
Toqaev's office had on January 5 announced a replacement for Samat Abish, the KNB's first deputy chief and Nazarbaev's nephew, without actually mentioning Abish by name.
On January 14, the KNB released a statement clarifying that Abish had not been dismissed at all but was merely on vacation.
It wasn't until January 17, the day before Nazarbaev appeared in a video to address Kazakhs about the crisis -- expressing his support for Toqaev's rule and denying rumors of a rift -- that Abish's dismissal was announced.
After that, Abish was at various times referred to by investigators as being "in the orbit of the investigation" into the 2022 unrest and "a person of interest" in those events. But last week, one of Abish's former subordinates, Ruslan Iskakov, implicated the powerbroker in a preliminary hearing for one of the most important "Bloody January" trials to date.
"They are trying to stop me from saying that I carried out Abish's orders," Iskakov told the court on September 18, as he prepared to face charges that include abuse of office, illegal deprivation of liberty, and the formation and leadership of a criminal group.
The next day, the Prosecutor-General's Office announced that a criminal case involving "the study of a significant amount of secret documentation" had been opened into Abish's potential abuse of power during the 2022 crisis.
Abish was located inside Kazakhstan, a statement said, and had been barred from leaving the country.
But on September 21, the trial in which Iskakov is a defendant was suddenly moved behind closed doors, meaning that any further testimony from the proceedings will be unavailable to the public.
'Differing Versions'
The court's decision continues the pattern involving all hearings that might shed light on what top decision-makers said or did during the unrest.
Masimov, the former KNB boss, was in April of this year sentenced to 18 years in jail for high treason, with three of his deputies -- Abish being the exception -- receiving long sentences as well.
But even officials don't appear to agree on what he did on January 4-5, as peaceful protests that began over an increase in the cost of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) segued into more violent and coordinated mobilizations.
Prosecutor-General Berik Asylov charged at the beginning of this year that Masimov had ordered officers to leave their posts at KNB buildings during the violence, causing the government to lose control of Almaty and another southern city, Taldyqorgon, to "armed bandits."
But in May, the KNB's current deputy chairman, Marat Kolkobaev, said Masimov was not punished because of any order he gave, but because he "didn't make the decisions that he should have made."
"This criminal case is classified as 'top secret.' If today I divulge all the nuances of this criminal case I will find myself sitting with those whose cases are being investigated," Kolkobaev told journalists.
Masimov's public relations team has contended -- without offering proof -- that Masimov's real offense was refusing to submit to Toqaev's "shoot to kill" order during the disturbances that had moved him to call in Russian-led peacekeepers to help restore calm in Almaty.
Nazarbaev has made very few public appearances since the events and is not believed to reside in Kazakhstan. But he used one appearance in the capital, Astana, last year to wash his hands of Masimov -- even comparing him to Judas Iscariot, the disciple who betrayed Jesus.
Nazarbaev, moreover, said that he would not try to protect his relatives from punishment if they had committed crimes, providing their guilt was proven in a fair trial.
Kazakhs who had witnessed both a broken justice system and boundless nepotism under Nazarbaev's three-decade rule found plenty to mock in that assertion.
But fairly or not, the former president has already seen one of his blood relatives in the dock. Abish's brother, Qairat Satybaldy, in September became the first member of the once-untouchable former ruling family to be sentenced to jail time, receiving six years in prison.
That sentence was for corruption rather than treason, and authorities pressed with questions from journalists eventually denied that Satybaldy -- a career security officer-turned businessman -- was linked to the unrest.
Any attempt to try Abish over the January unrest would therefore be uncharted territory and perhaps worrying for Nazarbaev, whose own role in the crisis is one of the biggest questions of all.
That has led some observers to argue that Iskakov's comments in court were prompted by an administration eager to ensure that there can be no return to politics for the disgraced Nazarbaev clan.
But Toregozhina, the rights activist, who has done as much as anyone to try and document the events known as "Bloody January," is not one of them. Instead, she argues that a closed court benefits both Abish and Toqaev's administration, who, whatever their differences, share an interest in keeping the murky events out of public view.
"We see that the prosecutor-general comes out with differing versions [of the events] and that the defendants in court have information that contradicts [those versions]. Mr. Iskakov is one of the main witnesses of the January events and holds a huge amount of information about what actually happened. As such, his testimony is important and his life may be in danger," Toregozhina told RFE/RL.
And what of the idea that Abish is in Kazakhstan and therefore available to face trial pending the conclusion of the investigation? Again, the activist is skeptical.
"As far as we know he is in the United Arab Emirates, not in Kazakhstan. If that is the case, then [the prosecutor-general] will look ridiculous," Toregozhina said.
