ALMATY -- Ahead of the Summer Olympics in Paris, U.S. sports magazine Sports Illustrated (SI) projected its likely podium finishes for all 329 medal events at the games.
The predictions were a mixed bag for the five countries of Central Asia, with Kazakhstan expected to endure its worst-ever medal haul and Uzbekistan predicted to fall short of its eye-catching, boxing-dominated showing eight years ago in Rio de Janeiro. Only Kyrgyzstan was shouldering the weight of rising expectations after SI forecast the first two golds in that country's independent history.
But the good news is that some of Central Asia's longer shots quickly beat the odds in the Games' first five days, leaving fans hoping for more fairy-tale endings in Paris.
Uzbekistan's First Woman Summer Olympics Winner
Uzbekistan may be eying a gold glut in men's boxing, but it's a woman who's most likely to be remembered by Uzbeks at home and in the high-energy crowd that was gathered in Champs de Mars Arena on July 28.
Diyora Keldiyorova, a judoka in the 52-kilogram category, had been tipped by SI to win bronze on the second day of competition. Instead, she shocked reigning gold medalist Japan's Uta Abe, who hadn't lost in five years, in an early round.
Keldiyorova shed tears of joy on the podium and said her mission was "to change the life of women" in her conservative homeland. The 26-year-old was still visibly emotional when President Shavkat Miriziyoev called to offer his personal congratulations to Uzbekistan's first champion judoka and first female champion at a Summer Olympics.
Uzbekistan scooped up 13 medals (four golds) in its best-ever Olympics in Rio in 2016 before winning just five (three golds) in Tokyo.
Of the 10 gold medals in its history, five have been in men's boxing, with its Rio performance drawing comparisons with amateur boxing superpower Cuba.
Sports Illustrated predicted three gold medals in boxing this time for the Uzbek team. It tipped Asadxoja Moydinxojayev for a silver in the men's 71-kilogram draw, but Moydinxojayev is currently the bookmakers' favorite. Compatriot Bakhodir Jalolov is meanwhile regarded as a virtual shoo-in for the gold in the 95-kilogram class.
Which is all to suggest that the prospect of Uzbekistan equaling or even beating its Rio gold haul now doesn't look too unimaginable. And it might be its best chance for a while, with boxing at risk of being dropped from the Olympic program in Los Angeles in 2028.
Kazakhstan's First Champion Judoka
If Paris was Keldiyorova's first Olympics, it was third time lucky for 31-year-old Yeldos Smetov, who became Kazakhstan's first gold medalist in judo after claiming silver and then bronze in Rio and Tokyo respectively. With hopes high for a podium finish, Smetov defeated world No.1 Yung Wei Yang from Taiwan en route to victory in the July 27 final.
In comments for the International Judo Federation's website, Smetov dedicated his gold medal to his family of five children and the Jenys Judo Club in Qaraghandy, whose coach Galimjan Dzhylgeldeev has been working with Smetov since the judoka was a child. He also hailed his Uzbek colleague in a nod to the Central Asian sporting solidarity that has become much more evident in the last decade or so.
"The first day of this Olympic Games brought my gold for Kazakhstan and the second brought Diyora's gold for Uzbekistan so this is already an incredible Games for Central Asia," Smetov said.
The narrative of these Summer Games for Kazakhstan is probably more about restoring reputation than scaling new heights. It has won 74 medals (15 gold) in three decades of independence, but 10 more -- six of them gold -- have been stripped as a result of doping disqualifications, mostly in weightlifting.
Tokyo brought Kazakhstan eight bronzes and was widely regarded as a failure for a country that invests heavily in sports. Paris is the first Olympics with Kazakhstan's National Olympic Committee under new management after the country's most famous boxer, Gennady Golovkin, became the committee's new president earlier this year.
Former National Olympic Committee head billionaire Timur Kulibaev is the son-in-law of former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev and, as such, is a symbol of the "Old Kazakhstan" that authorities claim to be moving away from.
Any Medal Is Good? Not So For Kyrgyzstan!
With their larger populations and traditions of pouring investment into sports, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have many more Olympic medals apiece than the other three Central Asian nations combined over the last three decades.
Tajik Olympics watchers, for instance, can already breathe a sigh of relief that their country is not going to draw a blank like it did in Tokyo: Somon Mahmadbekov claimed a bronze in the men's 81-kilogram class on July 30.
The sport? Judo, of course!
Judo is indeed one of Central Asia's stronger Olympic pursuits, with all countries except Turkmenistan claiming a medal in the sport at some point, most of them bronze.
SI hadn't predicted the 25-year-old Mahmadbekov's podium finish, but it did predict silver for another Tajik prospect, Temur Rakhimov, 27, in the heavyweight category. A gold in that competition would be nothing short of sensational, given that Rakhimov will have to contend with Frenchman Teddy Riner, a three-time gold medalist hailed by many as the best judoka of all time.
Any upset there would also be excellent news for Ismail Mahmadzoir, President Emomali Rahmon's Instagram-happy grandson and the national Judo Federation chief.
SI predicted nothing at all for Turkmenistan, which won its first Olympic medal in Tokyo when Polina Guryeva claimed silver in women's weightlifting.
The authoritarian country's continued sporting failures contrast strongly with the posturing of leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, whom state media portrays as a serial winner in everything from horseracing to tenpin bowling.
Kyrgyzstan is the other Central Asian country never to savor the top of the Olympic podium, but there is an overwhelming feeling that it is more than time for wrestler Aisuluu Tynybekova, the most successful Kyrgyz female in her sport.
Tynybekova, 31, is a three-time world champion but won her only Olympic medal, a silver, at her third Games in Tokyo. She is many people's favorite in the 62-kilogram category scheduled for next week. Falling short could spell disappointment, given her stellar career and the fact that the Los Angeles Games in 2028 might prove an Olympics cycle too far.
Women's wrestling has really taken off in Kyrgyzstan, with Tynybekova the doyenne of a team under the guidance of coach Nurbek Izabekov that now includes 24-year-old Tokyo bronze medalist Meerim Zhumanazarova and 25-year-old 2023 World Championships silver medalist Aiperi Medet-kyzy.
Along with gold for Tynybekova, SI predicted a silver for Medet-kyzy, gold for male Greco-Roman wrestler Zholaman Sharshenbekov, and bronzes for three other athletes.
That would easily be Kyrgyzstan's best Olympic showing to date, and a boost for the populist regime of President Sadyr Japarov, a sports instructor by training.
Somewhat controversially, Kyrgyz athletes are competing in Paris under a new flag -- one that Japarov pushed through last year after claiming that the three-decade-old design was too similar to a sunflower.
Tynybekova was among several athletes who publicly expressed disagreement, with Sharshenbekov going so far as to say in December that he would only compete under the old flag.
Kamchibek Tashiev, the head of the State Committee for National Security and Japarov's de facto co-ruler, quickly brought Sharshenbekov back in line. "No athlete has the right to participate in any official competition without the state flag. Just you try it!" Tashiev said.
