Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.
I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm watching in the days ahead.
The Key Issue
In a major blow to Afghanistan’s Taliban government, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) claimed credit for killing its refugee affairs minister.
On December 11, Khalil ur-Rahman Haqqani was killed in a suicide bombing inside the ministry building in Kabul, which claimed the lives of at least five more people.
Haqqani, in his 60s, was the uncle of the Taliban's interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani. He is the most senior Taliban figure killed by IS-K since the Islamist group returned to power in August 2021.
In 2011, the United States designated him a global terrorist and offered a $5 million bounty for help in capturing him.
Khalil ur-Rahman Haqqani was the younger brother of the late Jalaluddin Haqqani, a leading anti-Soviet mujahidin commander in the 1980s who joined the Taliban in the 1990s. But his extended family and its loyalists are known as the Haqqani Network, once a brutal Taliban military wing.
Why It’s Important: The killing negates Taliban claims that its harsh crackdown against the IS-K has eliminated the ultraradical transnational jihadist group from Afghanistan.
It is a significant blow to the powerful Haqqani Network, which dominates the Taliban government’s internal security apparatus. Its members lead the Interior Ministry and the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI), which has led the Taliban’s crackdown against IS-K.
“The murder proves IS-K’s small presence in Afghanistan is dangerous,” said Sami Yousafzai, a veteran Afghan journalist and commentator.
He said Khalil ur-Rahman Haqqani’s killing would further isolate Sirajuddin Haqqani, who relied on his uncle to express sensitive views.
“His absence may create a leadership void,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Potentially weakening [the Haqqani Network’s] influence and internal cohesion.”
Yousafzai believes that senior Taliban figures will now limit their public dealings, which will further alienate ordinary Afghans from the Taliban government.
What's Next: In retaliation for the killing, the Taliban government is likely to launch a new campaign against the IS-K, which will disproportionality target Afghanistan’s tiny Salafist community for providing some of the group’s fighters.
The IS-K, however, will be encouraged by the killing and will continue to attack the Taliban, as well as religious and sectarian minorities in Afghanistan, to undermine its rule.
What To Keep An Eye On
The Taliban government has welcomed the initial approval of a proposed Russian law that will pave the way toward removing the extremist group from the Kremlin’s list of terrorist organizations.
“The step represents a great development and is meant to remove obstacles in enhancing bilateral relations,” said Abdul Qahar Balkhi, a spokesman for the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry, on December 11.
Moscow has engaged with the Taliban after its return to power in 2021. But it has been slow in delivering on repeated promises to take the group off its list of terrorist organizations.
Moscow has eagerly courted the Taliban after the Islamist State-Khorasan (IS-K) claimed credit for attacking a concert hall near Moscow. At least 145 people were killed in the attack in March.
The move comes months after Russian President Vladimir Putin called the Taliban "a trusted ally" in fighting terrorism in July.
Why It's Important: Like other regional powers, Moscow is keen on engaging the Taliban to prevent itself from terrorist threats emanating from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
It has consistently dangled the Taliban delisting and recognition of its government as a carrot to encourage the internationally unrecognized Taliban administration to cooperate on its security concerns.
That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org
Until next time,
Abubakar Siddique
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