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Will Trump's Gaza Proposal Sink Or Save The Two-State Solution?


Displaced Palestinians return to their homes in northern Gaza
Displaced Palestinians return to their homes in northern Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and move Palestinians to neighboring countries has been met with skepticism.

The forced displacement of Gaza’s 2.3-million population to Egypt and Jordan could destabilize the region and derail any prospects for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts say.

But the proposal could also shift the responsibility to U.S. allies in the region to come up with a solution to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts, according to observers.

“Trump is taking the most extreme position on a hugely sensitive issue as part of a broader negotiation on Gaza and Israel,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

“By pressuring key U.S. allies who are indeed dependent on the U.S. for aid and security, he hopes to see his aim of burden sharing achieved,” Vakil said.

Future Of Two-State Solution

Washington has for decades backed a two-state solution that would see the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

But progress has been hindered by deep differences among Israelis and Palestinians over borders, settlements, and the status of Jerusalem.

Palestinians also insist that any future Palestinian state must include the Gaza Strip, which is why Trump’s proposal has raised concern among not only critics but also U.S. allies, including Germany.

“Trump has yet to articulate a clear view on the two-state solution or the way forward in the Israel-Palestine conflict, but if U.S. policy is leaning toward displacing Palestinians from Gaza, that suggests limited scope for positive progress on the issue,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.

Many of Gaza’s inhabitants were displaced and much of the Palestinian enclave was destroyed after Israel’s devastating 15-month war against Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group. The conflict was triggered by an unprecedented attack by Hamas in Israel in October 2023.

The fighting has been paused for six weeks as part of a multiphase cease-fire deal agreed on January 15 that envisions a permanent end to the war and the rebuilding of Gaza.

Trump, who floated his proposal on January 25, said the potential displacement of Gazans “could be temporary, could be long term.”

Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said there is widespread support for transferring Palestinians out of Gaza among the Israeli far right because they think “Israel can occupy the territory and build new settlements.”

Trump has said he has shared his thoughts with Jordan and Egypt, U.S. allies in the region that receive significant aid. But both countries have publicly pushed back against any moves involving the forced displacement of civilians.

Shavit said “it is not reasonable” to expect Jordan and Egypt to accept the proposal because they already host millions of Palestinians displaced by Israel’s creation in 1948 and the Arab-Israeli conflict in 1967.

He argued that it could “be a really big risk to the stability of those countries” if they took in more refugees.

Palestinians walk past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed during the war, following a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip
Palestinians walk past the rubble of houses and buildings destroyed during the war, following a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip

Experts say that moving Gazans and consequently derailing the prospects of an independent Palestinian state could also hinder attempts to normalize relations between Israel and regional power Saudi Arabia.

“I don't see it being positively received elsewhere in the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where [Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman] has made positive progress on a Palestinian state a requirement for normalization with Israel,” Brew said.

Several Arab states have normalized relations with Israel under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords in recent years.

Need To 'Change The Status Quo'

The staunch opposition to Trump’s plan among Washington’s allies and Arab states is testament to its unfeasibility, experts say.

“I think we need to be cautious reading too much into Trump's comments, which were delivered in an off-the-cuff way,” Brew argued.

Trump likes to “think big” and he and his advisers could be trying to “change the status quo” by getting stakeholders in the region to step up and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Shavit said.

“He wants to shake the parties in a way that they will think on a solution that they can live with,” he said.

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) speaks during the Abraham Accords signing ceremony in Washington in September 2020 while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, and then-Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa look on.
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) speaks during the Abraham Accords signing ceremony in Washington in September 2020 while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, and then-Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa look on.

Trump has long criticized long-term U.S. military engagements and has advocated for reducing American financial commitments abroad. He described himself as a “peacemaker” during his inauguration speech on January 20.

“Trump wants a new Middle East; he wants the Saudis to join the Abraham Accords and wants to be seen as someone who made peace and received a Nobel Prize [for it],” Shavit said.

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    Kian Sharifi

    Kian Sharifi is a feature writer specializing in Iranian affairs in RFE/RL's Central Newsroom in Prague. He got his start in journalism at the Financial Tribune, an English-language newspaper published in Tehran, where he worked as an editor. He then moved to BBC Monitoring, where he led a team of journalists who closely watched media trends and analyzed key developments in Iran and the wider region.

RFE/RL has been declared an "undesirable organization" by the Russian government.

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