KYIV -- Iryna was among dozens who gathered near a traffic junction to get a freshly cooked free meal on a recent afternoon. The 70-year-old used to work as a journalist but now, she says, with her modest pension and no help from her family, she comes here regularly.
Most of those lining up for a helping of buckwheat with meat sauce, bread, and apples were either elderly, displaced, or disabled, Zhanna Tsvir, a volunteer of Sant'Egidio, the religious charity that brought in the food, told RFE/RL.
"These are the unlucky ones," she said.
An estimated 7.3 million Ukrainians face moderate or severe food insecurity, including 1.2 million children and 2 million elderly, according to an analysis by the United Nations. There is a high concentration of food-insecure people in the capital, but most of the affected are near the front lines, where approximately one-quarter of the population faces severe or extreme food deficits, the organization says.
These numbers stand in contrast with Kyiv's bustling city center, with its packed restaurants, posh cars, and edgy street fashions. The Ukrainian economy has shown signs of recovery since the deep recession that followed the full-scale invasion in February 2022. After dropping by 30 percent in 2022, real GDP increased by 5.7 percent in 2023 and is expected to reach 3.5 percent this year. After spiking to over 26 percent in 2023, inflation decreased to some 4-5 percent annually. Food price inflation dropped from over 37 percent in late 2022 to some 5 percent today.
The impact of war on different sectors of the economy and social groups is uneven, but the wartime impoverishment of large swathes of Ukrainian society is highlighted by data coming from a number of sources, Tymofiy Brik, a sociologist and rector of the Kyiv School of Economics, told RFE/RL.
"Soon, socioeconomic conflicts may become a political factor for the first time in independent Ukraine," he said.
The number of Ukrainians living in poverty has grown by 1.8 million since 2020, bringing the total to about 9 million, or 29 percent of the population living in the Kyiv-controlled territory, the World Bank said in a report published in May. The increase in poverty was driven mostly by job loss, with more than one-fifth of adults who were employed before the war having lost their jobs, a problem that is especially acute among the internally displaced (IDPs).
"The idea that we are all in the same boat is an illusion propagated by the wartime messaging of unity," sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko told RFE/RL.
In reality, he says, the war has had drastically differing impacts on various population groups, with its burden falling most heavily on Ukrainians from the south and east of the country.
'Left With Nothing'
Lyudmyla Mozhova left her native Lysychansk in the eastern Luhansk region shortly before the city fell to Russian forces in July 2022. The 48-year-old, a former accountant and a mother of four, is now an unpaid volunteer for Sant'Egidio. She lost her house and possessions, and both her parents who remained under occupation died of stress-related health reasons, she told RFE/RL.
"I was uprooted from a life that was good, and I am left with nothing," she said as she registered IDPs seeking food and other products at the charity's Kyiv office on a recent morning.
"After the full-scale invasion, we saw a surge of volunteers to take up charity roles and fill the needs created by the war," Lyudmyla Kharchenko, the Kyiv office head at Sant'Egidio, told RFE/RL. "Even if the war ends tomorrow, the social crisis will continue for years."
There are 4.6 million people with the status of IDP in Ukraine, and 1.5 million are receiving social payments, according to Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister and minister for the reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories.
In March, the government scrapped the monthly payments -- $77 for those with children or disabilities and $51 for others -- for some 2.5 million IPDs deemed capable of working. But activists say a lack of support pushes some IDPs to return to their homes, even if they are still in near the front lines or even occupied by Russian forces.
Widening Gaps
The eastern and southern parts of Ukraine have been the epicenter of the humanitarian crisis, but the war affects all of Ukrainian society, Brik told RFE/RL.
"Perhaps the biggest gap is the one between different experiences of war," he said. "Some are hunting for a place in a kindergarten in Berlin, while others need a pickup truck for their military unit."
Historical examples show there are important variations in how different social classes experience war, says Olena Simonchuk, a sociologist with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Simonchuk's research monitoring social trends shows that the working class has been affected by job loss particularly badly due to the destruction of industrial facilities. Although no official data is available, members of this class are also more likely to be called to the army.
The middle class has suffered due to the emigration of highly skilled women -- some 6 million Ukrainian refugees have been recorded in Europe, 90 percent of them women and children -- but overall has managed to preserve its status, often by resorting to working remotely, she says.
Business owners suffered significant losses but over time many of them adapted to the new conditions and Ukraine's economy proved resilient. While in May 2022 only 28 percent of companies were fully operational, by August 2023 about 88 percent were back to work.
At the same time, Ukraine may be witnessing the decline of the oligarchic class, while the role of the state in the economy increases, Simonchuk adds.
Fractured Unity
"The dynamics of wartime societal transformation are complex and difficult to predict, but we are observing some positive trends," she said, citing historically high levels of unity on previously contentious issues such as NATO and EU accession and Ukrainian identity. Public confidence in state institutions, most notably the army, is also relatively high compared to pre-invasion times.
But as the war drags on, opinions on how it should end are diverging, according to a survey by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center in July. Almost 44 percent of Ukrainians believe it is time for official peace negotiations with Russia. Thirty-five percent oppose such talks, and 21 percent said they had no opinion.
At the same time, more than 80 percent opposed the cease-fire conditions laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has demanded Ukraine hand over the five regions Moscow has claimed in their entirety and abandon efforts to join NATO.
"Between the ebbs and flows of enthusiasm, we see that unity starts to fragment on topics such as mobilization, negotiations with Russia, or even just tax policy," Ishchenko said.
