PRAGUE -- Across Europe, some 4.3 million refugees could soon have the option of returning to a peaceful Ukraine, but many no longer want to.
In the Czech Republic, Ukrainian refugees now make up some 3.6 percent of the population -- the highest ratio in Europe. A recent survey indicated less than a quarter plan to return to Ukraine once their refugee visas expire.
Anna Naduda is one of those who hopes to remain. The artist and teacher lost her youngest son in a tragic accident before the 2022 Russian invasion.
“I have a huge fear of losing another child, of losing my son,” she told RFE/RL.
Naduda speaks with warmth about the Czech capital, where she found refuge with her surviving child.
“The experience for myself and my son is that Prague met us with love,” the artist said, while molding a sculpture in a quiet suburb of the Czech capital.
The artist’s 11-year-old son has learned Czech and has settled into a school where he has friends and hobbies. “I want my child to grow up in a stable and positive environment,” Naduda said.
Naduda’s visa comes under the EU Temporary Protection Directive, an EU-wide status agreed in 2022 which currently runs until March 2026.
What happens after that date “will be coordinated depending on a conclusion of the war,” Interior Ministry spokeswoman Hana Mala told RFE/RL.
“In all likelihood there will be a transition period, in which refugees will have time to resolve their future – either by moving onto another kind of residence permit or returning home.”
New Visas For Refugees
Many of the 389,000 Ukrainians in the Czech Republic on temporary protection visas face a high hurdle to remain if a peace agreement is reached.
From April 1, Ukrainian refugees will be able to apply for a “special” residency visa that would grant them permission to stay on beyond the conclusion of the war and offer a potential pathway to permanent residency.
But applicants are required to earn an annual gross income of 440,000 crowns ($19,200). That threshold increases by 110,000 crowns for each dependent in a household.
“I need to earn more,” Naduda says with a laugh, “that is my goal for this year.”
Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan has suggested there will be other paths for refugees to follow if they wish to remain. “They’d have the same rules as any other foreign nationals,” he said in February.
Rakusan said surveys suggested some 200,000 might stay. “That’s a situation that we could certainly handle,” he added.
But immigration lawyers RFE/RL spoke to say those avenues will be limited.
Hana Frankova, the head of legal at the Czech-based Organization For Aid To Refugees, says in the event of peace, and without extension to temporary protection visas, Ukrainian refugees "will probably be able, in theory, to apply for asylum." But she adds that "this would only make sense in case of someone having asylum reasons." The legal expert estimates only some 10 percent of Ukrainian refugees in the Czech Republic would be eligible for the special residency permit given its current income requirement.
Svatava Pospiskova, a visa expert at the firm Czech Visa Lawyer, says if a cease-fire is announced and the temporary protection visa scheme is not extended, Ukrainian refugees would have "the opportunity to reside in the [Czech Republic] for up to 90 days under visa-free travel, but not for the purpose of earning a living." She added that applicants would need to apply for residence permits at the Czech Embassy in Ukraine.
Yulia Dobrynina is a photographer and former lawyer who fled Kyiv in 2022 and now works at an NGO helping other displaced people in Prague to integrate.
Dobrynina believes women with male children in the Czech Republic are likely to do anything to stay out of Ukraine, hinting there is little faith that the Russian invasion will be ended by a peace agreement.
“We’ve had this war not only for three years…. It’s a 300 year war, they always come back, they always want to kill us,” she told RFE/RL.
Dobrynina also aims to stay on beyond a potential end to the war. “I have no place to come back to,” she said, adding that her home town of Melitopol is under Russian occupation.
The NGO worker is also unsure if her income would meet the threshold for the special visa. “I don’t know, [it could be] one crown minus, one crown plus,” she says, referring to the Czech currency.
Refugees In Poland And Germany
Ukrainian refugees in other European countries also face uncertainties about how long they can stay. Germany and Poland have the most, with 1.16 million and 992,000, respectively, according to EU figures. In both countries, there have been moves to reduce the level of social-welfare support available to Ukrainian refugees.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk floated such proposals in early January, while Germany’s likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz made similar suggestions last year.
“At first many people were ready to help, they had understanding for Ukraine,” Angelika Gumz, the owner of a Ukrainian café in Berlin, told RFE/RL in February.
“As time has passed, the attitude has changed.”
The level of benefits available to refugees has also caused political controversy in the Czech Republic.
Official statistics show refugees have been a slight drain on the Czech economy since 2022 but that the trend is now heading toward a net benefit.
Some 62 billion crowns ($2.7 billion) has gone to refugees since February 2022, with tax and other contributions from the same group adding up to 55 billion crowns.
But in 2024, Ukrainian refugees contributed some 5.7 billion crowns more than they received from the Czech state.
