Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two big issues: the meeting of NATO's military committee in Prague and the continued weakening of the EU's Russia sanctions.
Briefing #1: NATO Military Committee Chair On Ukraine's Request To Strike Deep Into Russia
What You Need To Know: The NATO Military Committee gathered in Prague for its annual conference over the weekend (September 13-14) taking stock of two things: the continued Western military support for Ukraine and the readiness of the alliance in case of a military threat. The committee brings together the defense chiefs (usually the country's top military officer) from the 32 members of the alliance and is NATO's highest military authority, tasked with giving advice to NATO's strategic commanders and the civilian side of the organization led by the secretary-general.
After the Prague meeting, I spoke to the chair of the Military Committee, Dutch Navy Admiral Rob Bauer, who has been in the role since 2021 in a period dominated by Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine. Naturally, our conversation centered on Ukraine, especially amid signs that key allies are ready to allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia with Western-made weapons.
Deep Background: Admiral Bauer was keen to point out that the discussion on allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia did not take place during the meeting in Prague and that he hasn't been part of these talks, ultimately because it is a political discussion taking place in various national capitals, notably Washington, D.C.
But he quickly added that Kyiv's request has merit from a strategic perspective: "If you ask me as a military person, if it is a logical thing to ask for the Ukrainians, then the answer is yes, because basically, in accordance with the UN Charter and, in accordance with the law of armed conflict, if you are attacked by a nation, then you are allowed to defend yourself. That defense doesn't stop at your borders."
He likened the situation to that of someone being targeted by an archer, with Ukraine having the air defenses to protect itself against the arrows but also needing an opportunity to hit the archer too. "That is basically what you do if you attack them, attack their launchers, attack their ammunition storage sites. If you attack their fuel storage sites, then you limit their ability to hurt and attack you in the future. So, militarily, that's the logical thing to do," he said.
Drilling Down
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that a decision to allow Western-made weapons to hit deeper inside Russia would entail a direct war between Moscow and NATO. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was even more explicit, saying that the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, could be targeted by a nuclear strike.
- Bauer, however dismissed this as Kremlin saber-rattling: "I think it's primarily a proof of how frustrated they are because Russia has not achieved any of their strategic goals in Ukraine, and that is now ongoing for 2 1/2 years." He added that "you have to take every threat seriously. But I don't think necessarily this discussion will change that threat immediately."
- So, going into fall and winter, what do things look like on the Ukrainian front lines? The admiral noted that both Russia and Ukraine essentially are grappling with similar problems: "Both sides are looking for more personnel, more weapons systems, more ammunition. And both sides do not have an easy task finding those three elements. And once you have the people, you need to train them. Once you have the weapons systems, you need to maintain them. Once you have the ammunition, you have to be able to use it properly. So those are things both sides are working on now."
- Bauer praised Ukraine's summer incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, calling it "a strategic dilemma for Putin," who has pledged "to defend the motherland but can't." He did caution, however, that it remains to be seen how long Ukraine will be able to hold on to the occupied territory.
- In a similar vein, the Dutch admiral also cautioned against too much negativity regarding Russia's recent advances around the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, which could open up the front perilously close to one of Ukraine's largest cities, Dnipro. "It's moving forward slowly," he told me. "But it's moving forward at the cost of a lot of casualties. But they haven't taken everything they want. So, it's difficult for them as well. The Ukrainians are defending themselves very courageously and professionally."
- We also touched on NATO's own readiness. While alliance officials have said they still plan to defend "every inch of allied territory," NATO diplomats have told me on background in recent months that there are elements missing, notably when it comes to sufficient air defense, ammunition, and prepositioned equipment in the eastern part of the alliance. These will be some of the issues NATO defense ministers will discuss when they assemble in Brussels on September 17-18.
- Bauer said that NATO now has 500,000 troops at high readiness compared to only 300,000 two years ago. "There's a number of things that we still need to improve on that [have] been discussed. I'm not going to talk of all the details, of course, as you can understand, but I think we can be proud of what we have achieved and...we are readier than ever before," he concluded.
Briefing #2: Chipping Away At The EU's Russia Sanctions
What You Need To Know: On September 11, the European Union approved the rollover of the asset freezes and visa bans that the bloc has imposed since February 2022, mainly on Russians, for undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But with the six-month prolongation, there were also two deletions to the blacklist of over 2,300 people and companies: Nikita Mazepin, a former Formula One driver and son of the Russian oligarch Dmitry Mazepin; and Violetta Prigozhina, mother of the late Russian oligarch and Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Deep Background: These deletions follow a pattern in which a few people are delisted every six months ahead of the formal rollover dates in mid-March and mid-September. This time around, the discussions on the removals were concluded on a lower political level already in July in what some diplomats in Brussels refer to as the biannual "sanctions dance."
Normally, the discussions are initiated at the behest of Hungary, which has been publicly critical of the bloc's sanctions policy. Typically, Budapest presents a number of sanctioned people to the other member states in political working groups that it wants taken off the lists in order to give its go-ahead. (Rollovers require unanimity from all 27 EU member states.) These have tended to be heavy-hitter oligarchs with extensive Russian business interests and Kremlin ties such as Alisher Usmanov, Pyotr Aven, Viktor Rashnikov, Mikhail Fridman, Dmitry Mazepin, Grigory Berezkin, and Vyacheslav Moshe Kantor.
Previous rounds have shown that most other member states militantly oppose taking such people off the lists. They have argued it would undermine the whole idea of EU sanctions if people close to President Vladimir Putin were removed and have countered by suggesting that the sanctions should only be prolonged once a year instead of twice. Compromise has always been reached, but the result is a weakened sanctions instrument. Plus, Budapest usually manages to leverage its veto, extracting political favors from Brussels in other policy areas.
After this diplomatic tug-of-war, lawyers from the Council of the EU, one of the bloc's main decision-making bodies, usually step in to resolve the issue by proposing a list of so-called "weak cases" with less legal justification to be sanctioned.
As the EU claims to be an entity guided by the rule of law, its lawyers must be able to present evidence that can be found in the public domain. And like with every other EU policy, those on the sanctions list can -- and do -- take the EU to court. Some of those sanctioned have already won cases against Brussels, and they include both Prigozhina and Nikita Mazepin.
Drilling Down
- This is, of course, a slight blow for the Russia sanctions regime, but the EU has been here before. In March, three other names were removed -- Arkady Volozh, co-founder of the Russian Internet giant Yandex; Russian businessman Sergei Mndoiants; and Jozef Hambalek, a Slovak national and head of the Russian nationalist Night Wolves motorcycle club in Europe.
- In my conversations with them, EU diplomats have tried to play down the latest deletions, saying it could be much worse. Prigozhina and Mazepin weren't that big of players anyway, they say, and the important thing is that the high-rolling oligarchs -- such as Mazepin's father -- are still blacklisted
- There is already talk about who will be delisted at the next opportunity in March 2025. During the EU ambassadors meeting in Brussels on September 11, the Hungarian and Slovak diplomats pledged that, for the next rollover, they will aim to remove Gulbakhor Ismailova, the sister of Usmanov who has been linked to various key Russian assets.
- The statement, circulated among diplomats and seen by RFE/RL, noted that "in our view, the grounds on which the listing of Ms. Ismailova have been based, no longer hold. Ms. Ismailova should be removed from the sanctions list." Based on this, Slovakia and Hungary will maintain this position during the next review.
- Will there be any more? It seems like family members of oligarchs are increasingly seen by EU lawyers as "weak cases," as it is legally difficult to prove that spouses and children are directly connected to the Russian war machine.
- Two possible candidates for the removal would be Galina Pumpyanskaya and Aleksandr Pumpyansky, the wife and son of Russian oligarch Dmitry Pumpyansky. An EU court annulled the sanctions against Aleksandr Pumpyansky in 2023, so he is certainly seen as being a "weak case."
- Two others on the blacklist, Aven and Fridman, have both won cases in EU court against their sanctions. The same as with Pumpyansky junior, they remain blacklisted because Brussels has argued that the cases they won in EU courts concern old listing criteria and refer to a previous sanctions period.
Looking Ahead
On September 19-20, I will be in Ukraine for the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. I will be in Kyiv for the EU Accession Exchange Forum to meet with politicians and policy analysts from around the region. I'll be reporting back with my thoughts in next week's briefing.
That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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