Middle East
After Degrading Hamas And Hezbollah, Israel Intensifies Attacks On Yemen's Houthis
Israel has degraded the fighting capabilities of its chief adversaries over the past year, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
But Yemen's Houthi rebels, who continue to fire missiles and drones at Israel, have proven a resilient foe despite Israeli attacks.
"Deterring the Houthis presents significant challenges," said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Israel lacks sufficient intelligence about the group and its operational capabilities."
Israel's success hinges on its ability to locate and destroy the Iranian-backed group's weapons facilities, a task that has "proven difficult so far," Nagi said.
Another challenge is geography. Yemen is located some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The Houthis also control large swaths of the country, including their stronghold in the mountainous northwest and the Red Sea coastline.
Even so, Israel has intensified its air strikes in recent weeks against the Houthis, despite the armed group posing a limited direct military threat to Israel. The escalating Israeli attacks have threatened to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Escalating Attacks
On December 26, Israel said it conducted air strikes on the main airport in Sanaa as well as power stations and "military infrastructure" at several Yemeni ports.
The head of the World Health Organization narrowly escaped death in the Israeli strikes on the airport that killed at least six people.
Israel's allies, including the United States and Britain, have also carried out strikes in Yemen.
The U.S. military said that it carried out air strikes against Houthi targets in Sanaa and along the Yemeni coast on December 30 and 31, including a "command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon production and storage facilities."
The Houthis have fired on U.S. naval forces and attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting a key global trade route.
The Israeli strikes came amid almost daily missile and drone attacks by the Houthis on Israel. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israel's air defenses and have caused little material damage. But they have triggered constant air raid sirens in many parts of Israel and disrupted everyday life.
The Houthis launched their attacks on Israel and international shipping in late 2023. It came soon after Israel began its devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels have vowed to continue their attacks until a cease-fire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Israel is largely operating against the Houthis in the dark. Israeli attacks, he said, have mainly targeted "civilian and strategic infrastructure rather than the military assets."
Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population of some 35 million people need humanitarian assistance.
"We, the people, are paying for it, not the Houthis," said Mustapha Noman, a former Yemeni deputy foreign minister. "This helps them."
Iran's Trusted Allies
The Houthis are part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel.
Israel has severely weakened the axis over the past year. Israel's ground invasion and devastating air campaign in Lebanon decimated the military capabilities of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party in Lebanon.
Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip has devastated the Palestinian territory and diminished the fighting power of Hamas.
Meanwhile, in early December, longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another member of the axis and a key ally of Iran, was ousted from power by Islamist rebels.
That has heightened the importance of the Houthis for Iran. The rebels are armed with highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.
"Without the Houthis, Israel would likely shift its full focus towards targeting and weakening Iran directly," said Nagi.
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- By Kian Sharifi
Israel's Attack On Iran Stuns Military But Could Empower Tehran's Nuclear Drive
Israel’s large-scale assault on Iran appears to have stunned the country’s military leadership and may have delayed an immediate retaliatory strike.
But it remains unclear whether it achieved its primary objective: crippling Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel claims Tehran is on the verge of weaponizing despite claims from Iran that it is solely for civilian purposes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have alleged Iran recently accelerated uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts to the point where it could produce a nuclear weapon within months -- or even days.
Operation Rising Lion, as Israel has named the strikes, targeted key components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure -- including the Natanz enrichment facility -- as well as military installations in and around Tehran.
Israeli warplanes also struck missile production facilities and residential buildings believed to house top military officials and nuclear scientists. Among those reportedly killed was Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), though Iran has not confirmed his death.
The objective, Israeli officials say, was to degrade both Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its ability to retaliate using its extensive ballistic missile arsenal -- a threat Israel sees as second only to a nuclear-armed Iran.
“Netanyahu has opened a new chapter in the Middle East -- an era of Israeli-Iranian nuclear war,” wrote Eran Etzion, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, on X.
“A war whose stated goal is to stop Iran’s nuclear program, but whose actual aim appears to be targeting the very foundations of the Iranian regime.”
High-Stakes Gamble
Security analysts describe the operation as a preemptive gamble -- an attempt to avert what Israel sees as an existential threat, but one that risks igniting a regional war, derailing diplomacy, and even accelerating Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Danny Citrinonwicz, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said the strike dealt a significant blow to Iran’s prestige by penetrating its air defenses and eliminating senior commanders.
But, he argued, its impact on Iran’s nuclear program was “limited,” as key facilities -- including the heavily fortified Fordow site -- remain intact.
“This is just the opening phase of a longer campaign,” Citrinonwicz wrote on X. “Israel appears to be holding back some cards for the likely escalation ahead.”
What Are Iran’s Options?
The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, scheduled for June 15, is now unlikely to proceed. With diplomacy appearing to have fallen by the wayside, any Iranian response risks deepening a cycle of escalation.
Iran’s immediate reaction came in the form of around 100 Shahed drones launched toward Israel -- many of which were intercepted outside Israeli airspace.
Iranian leaders have also repeated warnings that they would retaliate against both Israel and US forces in the region. Although Washington has denied involvement in the strike, Iran may still hold it responsible.
Should Tehran go through with its threat to target U.S. military bases, it could drag Washington into a broader conflict.
According to US intelligence estimates, Iran possesses some 2,000 missiles -- many capable of carrying warheads with more than 900 kilograms of explosives -- and is producing roughly 50 ballistic missiles per month. It remains unclear how much of this capability was affected by the Israeli assault.
Iran’s regional proxies, long viewed as force multipliers, have been severely degraded. The Gaza war has battered the US-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, and the Lebanese Hezbollah is still reeling from recent clashes with Israel. That leaves the Houthis in Yemen as Tehran’s most militarily viable ally.
Tehran may also consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the cornerstone of global nuclear arms control. While US intelligence -- contrary to Israeli assessments -- currently believes that Iran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, the Islamic republic could use the Israeli attack to justify abandoning its NPT obligations and moving toward weaponization.
“Netanyahu’s government may have just handed the Iranian regime both domestic and international legitimacy to pursue nuclear weapons,” Etzion warned.
- By RFE/RL
Israel Strikes Iran's Missile And Nuclear Facilities, Killing Top General, Senior Military Officials
Israel said it conducted air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other sites across Iran, killing a top general and two other military officials in a major escalation that raised the potential for all-out war.
Iran reportedly launched scores of drones and missiles at Israeli sites in response to the June 13 attacks. Jordan's military said it had intercepted a number of projectiles over its air space.
Among the sites hit in Iran were the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps command site in Tehran, according to Iranian state TV. The strike killed the commander of the corps, Major General Hossein Salami, according to Iranian news agency Tasnim.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strike aimed "to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival and that it would continue "for as many days as it takes to remove this threat."
"We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility at Natanz.... We also struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile program," he said in a video statement. Israel also hit Iranian nuclear scientists "working on the Iranian bomb," he added.
Israel's military said some 200 jets were involved in the massive raid, and Israeli TV reported that the Mossad intelligence agency may have set up a secret base inside Iran as part of the effort.
Iran's supreme leader warned that Israel would suffer severe consequences for launching the attacks.
"With this crime, the Zionist regime has set itself for a bitter and painful fate and it will definitely receive it," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement.
Natanz Nuclear Facility Targeted
The Natanz uranium enrichment facility was hit "several times," state TV reported, showing images of heavy smoke billowing from the site.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Natanz had been a target, but said it had not detected increased radiation levels at the site. Two other facilities linked to Iran's nuclear program -- Isfahan and Fordow -- were not affected, the agency said.
In a statement issued after the attacks, the Israeli Defense Forces asserted that Iran was "nearing the point of no return" in its efforts to build a nuclear weapon.
"The regime is producing thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralized and fortified enrichment compounds, in underground, fortified sites," it said.
In its latest report, the IAEA said Iran has sharply increased its production of highly enriched uranium, stockpiling 408.6 kilograms enriched to 60 percent -- up from just under 275 kilograms in February. The 60-percent figure is well above the threshold needed for a weapon.
Residential areas in Tehran and several other cities also were hit, according to the official IRNA news agency, which reported that the strikes killed a number of people, including women and children, in a residential complex in Tehran.
Iran Launches Drone Attack In Retaliation
Israel said Iran launched about 100 drones toward it in retaliation, but did not say if there were any direct hits or damage.
Several Middle Eastern countries closed their airspace, and Jordan's state news agency said a number of missiles and drones that had entered its airspace were intercepted.
The United States, Israel's strongest ally, defended the Israeli actions, but said Washington was not involved.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Israel advised Washington that it believed the strikes were necessary for its self-defense, Rubio said in a statement. He also warned Iran against targeting US interests or personnel.
The White House said President Donald Trump was set to attend a National Security Council meeting on the subject later June 13.
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a "special situation" in Israel in anticipation of a possible retaliatory strike by Iran "in the immediate timeframe."
The United States and Iran have been holding tense, high-level negotiations on Iran's nuclear ambitions. A sixth round of talks had been scheduled for June 15 in Oman.
Iran has consistently claimed its nuclear efforts are solely for civilian and not military uses.
Iran has been working on a counteroffer after rejecting a US proposal for a deal that Khamenei described as "100 percent" against national interests.
In a phone conversation with Trump earlier this week, Netanyahu raised the possibility of strikes against Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal, and Trump urged Netanyahu to hold off as negotiations continue.
In a social media post on June 12, Trump said the United States wanted to negotiate with Iran, though he also warned that an Israeli strike on Iran was likely.
Earlier on June 12, the IAEA formally declaring Iran "noncompliant" with its nonproliferation obligations for the first time since 2005.
The 35-member IAEA board voted 19-3 with 11 abstentions to adopt the resolution, which had been put forward by the United States and its trio of European allies -- Britain, France, and Germany.
The finding prompted a defiant response from Iran, which announced that a new enrichment site with new enrichment centrifuges would be set up at Fordow.
With reporting by AP and Reuters
- By Kian Sharifi
Nuclear Tensions Simmer As Iran, US Can't Even Agree On When To Argue
Diplomacy between the United States and Iran over the future of Tehran's nuclear program has hit a new snag -- not over uranium enrichment or sanctions, but over the simple matter of when to meet.
As US President Donald Trump insists the next round of talks is set for June 12, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei maintains that negotiations will resume on June 15 in Muscat. Oman, which is mediating the talks, has not weighed in.
The scheduling dispute comes as Iran's chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, is slated to be in Norway on June 12 for the Oslo Forum, making a session that day with the US unlikely, but not impossible. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi will also be in Oslo, so if White House envoy and nuclear negotiator Steve Witkoff travels to Norway, a meeting could take place.
Despite the calendar confusion, the stakes are clear: The sixth round of talks is shaping up to be a defining moment. Iran has formally rejected Washington's proposal for a deal, calling it "unacceptable" and lacking in key areas, especially the removal of economic sanctions and recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium on its own soil.
Iran's Counterproposal On Enrichment
Tehran says it will soon submit a counterproposal via Oman, a plan it describes as "reasonable, logical, and balanced" and which it urges Washington to take seriously.
While Iran has kept the details of its counteroffer under wraps, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi says it's not a lengthy document but a "rational" proposal that "can't be dismissed with a simple 'no.'"
He describes it as a solid and acceptable basis for further discussion.
Iran's counterproposal is expected to insist on the right to continue uranium enrichment -- a non-negotiable point for Tehran -- and demand effective and verifiable sanctions relief before any Iranian concessions.
Trump and other US officials, for their part, remain firm that any deal must see Iran halt enrichment, a position Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has flatly rejected as "100 percent contrary" to national interests.
Specter Of IAEA Resolution
This is all unfolding as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meets in Vienna for its quarterly session, a gathering dominated by the Iran file.
The IAEA's latest comprehensive report, released on May 31, concluded that Iran has failed to provide credible answers about undeclared nuclear material and activities at several sites, and that its cooperation with inspectors has been "less than satisfactory."
The United States and its European allies -- Britain, France, Germany, also known as the E3 -- are now pushing a resolution that would formally declare Iran in noncompliance with its safeguards obligations for the first time in two decades.
If adopted, the resolution would not immediately escalate the matter to the UN Security Council, but it would give Iran a window to address the outstanding concerns. It would be a major step toward opening the door to the return of UN sanctions if Iran fails to comply.
Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to retaliate if the resolution is adopted, teasing that it may expand its nuclear program, including installing thousands of advanced centrifuges.
The "snapback" of UN sanctions is a provision under the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal and the E3 wants to use it before it expires in October.
Whether the resolution is adopted could shape the tone of the next round of nuclear talks.
Adding to the volatility, Iran's Intelligence Ministry claimed over the weekend that Tehran has obtained a "treasure trove" of sensitive Israeli documents, including material on Israel's nuclear program and defense capabilities.
With Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear sites if the negotiations with the United States fail, the Supreme National Security Council said the alleged intelligence breach will allow Iran to retaliate to a potential attack "immediately" by targeting Israel's "secret nuclear facilities."
For now, the world is left waiting -- not just for the substance of a deal, but for the negotiators to even settle on a time and place to argue.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian TV Alleges Massive Spy Operation Targeting Israeli Nuclear Sites
Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB, has reported what it describes as one of the "largest intelligence operations" in history against Israel, claiming Iranian intelligence obtained a vast cache of "sensitive documents" -- including thousands allegedly related to Israeli nuclear projects and facilities -- from inside Israeli territory.
IRIB’s rolling news channel, IRINN, interrupted regular programming on June 7 to announce the story. It said the operation involved extracting an “abundance of strategic and sensitive information and documents” from within Israel, citing unnamed “regional sources.”
According to the report, the documents were transferred to Iran after a period of secrecy intended to ensure their safe arrival. IRIB said the volume of material is so great that merely reviewing it will take considerable time.
The broadcaster also linked the recent arrests of two Israeli citizens -- Roy Mizrahi and Almog Atias -- to the alleged intelligence breach. Israeli authorities announced their arrests last month, accusing them of collaborating with Iran. The Iranian report suggests the arrests may have come after the documents had already been smuggled out.
While the arrests of Mizrahi and Atias are confirmed and appear consistent with a broader pattern of Iranian intelligence recruitment inside Israel, there is no independent evidence to support IRIB’s claim of a massive exfiltration of nuclear-related documents. Israeli authorities have not acknowledged any such breach, and international media or independent analysts have released no corroborating details.
The claim comes six years after a high-profile Israeli intelligence operation inside Iran. In 2018, Mossad agents stole roughly 100,000 documents from a secret warehouse in Tehran, detailing Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program.
The trove was later verified by international experts and publicly revealed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, likely contributing to the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal during President Donald Trump's first term in office.
This latest Iranian claim -- whether credible or exaggerated -- fits into an intensifying pattern of espionage activity inside Israel over the past year. Israel’s Shin Bet security agency has reported a significant uptick in Iranian-directed spy plots, with more than 30 Israelis arrested for allegedly working on Iran’s behalf. These cases have included photographing military sites and plotting assassinations, involving both Jewish and Arab citizens.
The Black List: Assassinated Iranian Scientists
Iran and Israel have engaged in a prolonged shadow conflict involving cyberattacks, targeted killings, drone operations, and acts of sabotage. Tehran alleges that Israel is behind the assassinations of several Iranian nuclear scientists, while Israel accuses Iran of backing regional militant groups and orchestrating attacks on Israeli interests abroad.
The United States and Israel, widely regarded as the Middle East’s only nuclear-armed state, lead Western accusations that Iran seeks nuclear weapons. Iran denies this, maintaining its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes.
This latest report surfaces amid persistent tensions over Iran’s nuclear activities, which Israeli officials continue to describe as a fundamental threat to their country’s security.
- By Kian Sharifi
Syria's Shift Away From Iran Sparks Media Backlash After Trump Meets With Ahmed al-Sharaa
US President Donald Trump's historic meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, has not gone over well with the hard-line media in Iran.
Moderate outlets largely stuck to straight reporting of the meeting, but conservative media -- upset over Syria's sharp pivot away from Tehran -- criticized Trump for meeting with the insurgent-turned-president.
The backlash reflects growing anxiety in Tehran over the loss of Syria, once a crucial part of Iran's regional strategy. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad late last year, the new Syrian leadership has moved swiftly to distance itself from Iran, seeking new alliances with Arab neighbors and warming up to the West in a bid to lift sanctions.
Compounding the pressure, Iran is now entangled in high-stakes nuclear negotiations with the United States, where time and leverage may both be slipping away.
Trump met with Sharaa -- a former insurgent known under the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani -- on the sidelines of a gathering with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Riyadh on May 14, a day after pledging to lift sanctions on Syria.
The US president said he had made the decision in a bid to provide Syria with "an opportunity for greatness" as the country looks to rebuild after 14 years of civil war and economic devastation.
Hard-line newspaper Keyhan, whose chief editor is appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, derided Trump's talk with Sharaa and described it as a meeting between "Jolani the terrorist" and "the terrorist godfather."
The Islamic republic has long alleged that the United States funds extremist groups in the Middle East to destabilize the region and has dismissed Washington's campaign in the region against those groups as a farce.
Tasnim, an affiliate of the US-blacklisted Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), echoed that sentiment, describing the Trump-Sharaa meeting as the United States "formalizing its relationship with Takfiri groups" -- a term used by the Islamic republic to refer to militants groups that it claims have ties to regional Sunni states.
Other hard-line media noted that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group Sharaa led before toppling the government of Iran- and Russia-backed Assad in December, was still designated as a terrorist organization by the United States.
Is Iran Out Of The Picture For Syria?
The fall of Assad dealt a major blow to Iran, which relied heavily on Syria to link its "axis of resistance," its network of regional allies and proxies.
Sharaa has been welcomed by most Arab nations in the region and has received dozens of international delegations, including European diplomats. Earlier this month, he traveled to France to meet President Emmanuel Macron.
Trump, who described Sharaa as "a young attractive guy" with a "strong past," urged the Syrian leader to normalize relations with Israel as one of five conditions to reset ties with Washingtons.
Iran's influence in Syria effectively vanished with the fall of Assad, but Russia has tried to establish relations with the new government and maintain its bases in the country.
"Russia exploited the fact that Syria remained sanctioned and that the United States and Europe were dragging their feet on sanctions removal," Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told RFE/RL.
She noted that while the decision to lift sanctions is "significant," it is "not transformative" as Syria still needs investment and there are outstanding issues between minorities and the government as well as the status of the Kurds.
Iran, however, is pretty much out of the picture for now.
"They lack the economic capital to help with reconstruction and are viewed [by Syrians] much more negatively than Russia," she added.
Could Iran Get Its Sanctions Lifted, Too?
Referring to reports that Trump's announcement on lifting sanctions on Syria surprised the State and Treasury departments, UK-based political commentator Hossein Derakhshan argued that Iran really only needs to reach a deal with the US president to remove sanctions.
"Iran needs to understand that this opportunity will not repeat itself and the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions is worth suspending uranium enrichment for 25 years, or even more!" he wrote on X.
Trump said during his tour of the region this week that the United States is "getting close to maybe doing a deal" with Iran on its nuclear program. "We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," he said.
Meanwhile, Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Khamenei, told NBC News that Iran would commit to never making a nuclear weapon, ship out highly enriched uranium, and agree to enrich uranium to levels needed for civilian use if Trump agreed to immediately remove sanctions against Tehran.
Jihadi media specialist Mina al-Lami said jihadist and hard-line Islamists inside and outside of Syria worry that Sharaa will "sell out" foreign fighters and normalize ties with Israel, and even crack down on Islamic projects in Syria.
"Nevertheless, hardliners are struggling to rally broader support, as the lifting of sanctions is widely seen as a major win for Sharaa, and a clear boost to his image and credibility as a political leader," she wrote on X.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran Pitches Enrichment Consortium To Save Nuclear Program
Iran has put forward a proposal to the United States and its Gulf Arab neighbors in an attempt to accelerate negotiations and ease concerns about its nuclear program.
The plan, presented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi during a fourth round of talks with the United States in Oman on May 11, envisions the creation of a regional nuclear consortium that would include Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, with the potential for American involvement.
With both Iranian and US officials silent, details about the consortium remain scarce.
What Do We Know About The Proposal?
The Iranian daily newspaper Khorasan, which was the first to report the story, said the proposed consortium is intended to reassure both Western and regional actors about Iran's commitment to nuclear transparency and safety while allowing the country to maintain control over its nuclear advancements through international cooperation.
Media quoting Iranian officials and sources familiar with the initiative say the consortium would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium but only to low levels suitable for civilian energy purposes -- well below the threshold required for nuclear weapons.
The enriched uranium would then be distributed to participating Arab countries for peaceful use. Crucially, the arrangement would involve the permanent on-site presence of representatives from the partner nations, and potentially the United States, to ensure transparency and compliance.
The proposal marks a significant departure from Washington's demand that Iran give up all uranium-enrichment capabilities and dismantle key nuclear facilities. US officials have so far not commented publicly on the offer, and it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump's administration will be open to any deal that allows enrichment on Iranian soil.
Mehran Mostafavi, a France-based academic and nuclear expert, said the initiative has potential but would be difficult to implement.
Speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Farda, he said the consortium could "significantly reduce the risk" of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East -- provided that major regional powers are involved.
"But the main issue is whether the Islamic republic can be trusted," Mostafavi said. "For trust to exist, the regime must be rooted in the will of the people -- but such a thing does not exist in Iran."
He added that, while establishing the consortium is "not impossible," the lack of trust in Iran's political system "undermines" its feasibility.
An Old Idea At A Critical Time
The consortium idea is not entirely new. In fact, Iran once proposed the creation of an international consortium back in 2008 to ease tensions and break a deadlock over its nuclear program. The initiative received little interest from Western nations, particularly because they opposed any enrichment taking place on Iranian soil.
With European powers threatening to trigger the 2015 nuclear deal's "snapback" of UN sanctions against Iran if there is no deal by the end of the June, the window is closing for Tehran to settle the issue with Washington.
Trump echoed this sentiment during his visit to Saudi Arabia this week, reiterating his desire for a diplomatic solution but warning that time is running out for Iran to make concessions before facing increased economic pressure.
Iran has been trying to strengthen its relations with both the Saudis and the Emiratis over the past two years. The Saudis, who are pursuing their own civil nuclear program with Washington's cooperation, have backed US talks with Iran.
Araqchi traveled to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi just ahead of Trump's regional tour, likely to discuss the initiative with the Arab states to get Trump on board.
Some analysts see the proposed consortium as a potential confidence-building measure that could open the door to broader regional security talks, but whether Washington sees it that way remains unclear.
With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By Kian Sharifi
Trump Pledges Syria Sanctions Relief In First US Meeting With Al-Sharaa After Years Of Isolation
For more than a decade, Syria stood as one of the world’s most isolated nations, battered by civil war, economic collapse, and the unyielding grip of international sanctions.
But on May 14, a dramatic shift unfolded on the world stage as US President Donald Trump met with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa -- a former insurgent known under the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani -- in Riyadh in the first meeting between the leaders of the two nations in a quarter of a century.
The move signals not only a new chapter for the war-torn country, but also a recalibration of regional alliances and power dynamics across the Middle East.
Speaking in the Saudi capital, Trump said the decision to lift sanctions, announced a day earlier, is meant to provide Syria “with an opportunity for greatness" as the country seeks to rebuild after more than a decade of civil war and economic devastation.
The sanctions, originally imposed to pressure the government of deposed President Bashar al-Assad, “now directly target the Syrian people and hinder the process of recovery and reconstruction,” the Syrian Foreign Ministry said after the announcement.
Welcoming Trump’s move, the ministry said the sanctions “contributed to [Assad’s] downfall” and added that Syrians “look forward to the full lifting of sanctions as part of steps that support peace and prosperity in Syria and the region.”
Indeed, Damascus erupted in celebration following Trump’s announcement, with many Syrians hopeful for economic relief.
"Syria now has a real opportunity to be brought back into the fold of the global economic system," Clara Broekaert, a research fellow at the Soufan Center focusing on foreign interference, told RFE/RL.
"This is not to suggest that the United States should relinquish all leverage -- particularly when it comes to ensuring, for example, the protection of minority rights -- but the existing sanctions regime would not do that and instead punish ordinary Syrians."
A Historic Meeting
The two met briefly in Riyadh on the sidelines Trump’s meeting with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The White House said Trump asked the Syrian leader to normalize relations with Israel by joining the so-called Abraham Accords, which have already been signed by some Gulf Arab states.
He also pushed for Sharaa to deport Palestinian militants and take control of camps holding Islamic State fighters that are currently being run by Kurdish guerillas who are opposed by Turkey.
The last such encounter was in 2000, when then-US President Bill Clinton met with Hafez al-Assad in Geneva.
Trump’s meeting with Sharaa signals a thaw in relations and offers de facto recognition of Syria’s new leadership, something unthinkable just months ago.
From Insurgent To President
Sharaa’s ascent to the presidency is a story few could have predicted. Sharaa fought against US forces in Iraq, later founding the Al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, during Syria’s civil war.
Over time, he distanced himself from Al-Qaeda, rebranding his group as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and consolidating power in northwest Syria. In late December 2024, Sharaa led a coalition of rebel groups, many backed by Turkey, in a lightning offensive and seized Damascus, bringing an end to half a century of Assad family rule over Syria.
He then declared the dissolution of all armed factions -- including his own -- and assumed the presidency under his birth name, pledging constitutional reform and a new era for Syria.
Sharaa’s transformation from insurgent commander to head of state is both remarkable and controversial. While he has worked to project a pragmatic image, promising security for minorities and outreach to the international community, his past continues to raise concerns among Western and Israeli officials.
The insurgent-turned-president has faced challenges controlling factions affiliated with his transitional government. This struggle came into sharp focus in March, when clashes broke out between security forces and gunmen loyal to the fallen government of Iran- and Russia-backed Assad. Rights groups documented hundreds of casualties, including civilians.
Broekaert said that that, despite recent reforms, “persistent concerns” remain among US policymakers, including sectarian violence in the coastal provinces.
"What I am personally watching closely [is] the integration of foreign fighters into the new security and governance apparatus,” she said.
These issues, Broekaert added, “continue to fuel skepticism among influential policymakers in Washington regarding the durability and sincerity of these reforms.”
Yet, for many Syrians, Sharaa represents a break from decades of dictatorship and the possibility of reconstruction after years of devastation.
"Sharaa has also, frankly, very skillfully positioned his leadership and policy agenda as pragmatic and aligned with key strategic interests of the United States, particularly the containment of Iranian influence," Broekaert said.
Saudi Arabia's 'Pivotal' Role
The dramatic US policy reversal did not happen in a vacuum. Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman, played a key role in orchestrating the diplomatic breakthrough.
Trump made his announcement at an investment conference in Riyadh on May 13, explicitly crediting the Saudi crown prince as the driving force behind the decision.
Saudi Arabia, joined by Turkey and several Gulf Arab states, lobbied Washington relentlessly, arguing that engaging with Sharaa’s government was essential for stabilizing Syria and curbing Iranian influence in the region.
The timing of the announcement coincided with Saudi Arabia’s commitment of a $600 billion investment in the United States and the signing of a record $142 billion arms deal, underscoring the extent of US-Saudi cooperation.
Noting Saudi Arabia's "pivotal" role, Broekaert said the Saudi crown prince "coupled diplomatic pressure with transactional incentives" to secure Trump’s engagement with the new Syrian leadership and to accelerate the lifting of sanctions.
How Will This Impact Other Regional Actors?
Trump’s embrace of Syria’s new government is reverberating across the region.
For Israel, the move is a source of deep unease. Israeli officials, wary of Sharaa’s jihadist past and the communal violence that accompanied his rise, fear that US normalization with Damascus could limit Israel’s freedom of action and embolden hostile actors. There are reports of indirect talks between Syria and Israel, possibly mediated by the United Arab Emirates, but Israeli skepticism remains high.
"It is clear that Israeli influence has diminished on the Trump administration’s dealing with Syria," Broekaert said.
For Iran, the developments represent a major strategic blow. The fall of the Assad regime and the rise of a government hostile to Tehran have severed a crucial link in Iran’s “axis of resistance” -- its network of regional allies and proxies. Iranian assets in Syria have been seized, and the new government has shown little interest in establishing relations with Tehran.
Russia, too, finds its influence diminished. While Moscow retains military bases on the Syrian coast, the new government has made it clear that Russia’s future presence will depend on agreements that serve Syrian interests. Russia is now seeking ways to reengage with Damascus, but its leverage has waned.
- By Kian Sharifi
Trump Signs Economic Deal With Saudis On First Day Of Mideast Tour
US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman signed a strategic economic partnership agreement hours after the US leader arrived in the kingdom to kick off a four-day Middle East tour.
The White House claimed the deal, which includes agreements for energy, mining, and defense, was the largest in "history."
"The United States and Saudi Arabia signed the largest defense sales agreement in history -- nearly $142 billion, providing Saudi Arabia with state-of-the-art warfighting equipment," the White House said in a statement.
Trump touched down in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on May 13, marking the start of a trip across the Persian Gulf region that will also see him visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
This is the second time Trump has chosen the kingdom as the first foreign destination of his presidency, having made the same choice at the start of his first term in 2017.
Upon arrival, Trump was greeted by bin Salman at the airport, where an official welcome ceremony took place, including a royal purple carpet and a coffee ceremony.
The streets of Riyadh were decorated with Saudi and US flags, and Air Force One received a military escort from Saudi F-15 fighter jets as it landed.
Trump's agenda in Saudi Arabia centers on securing significant business agreements, with a focus on investments in artificial intelligence, energy, and substantial arms deals. He aims to finalize agreements exceeding $1 trillion during this trip, although experts note such a figure would be unprecedented.
Prior to signing the agreement, Trump welcomed a pledge from the Saudi crown prince -- widely known by his initials MBS -- for $600 billion in investment, joking that the figure should be $1 trillion.
"We have the biggest business leaders in the world here today and they're going to walk away with a lot of checks," Trump told MBS.
"For the United States, it's probably 2 million jobs that we're talking about," the US president said.
The visit also includes participation in an investment forum, bilateral talks, and a dinner with the crown prince.
One of the key deals on the table during Trump's visit is a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement, which would support the kingdom's ambitions to develop its own nuclear energy sector.
Notably, the Trump administration is no longer requiring Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel as a precondition for advancing these nuclear talks -- a significant shift from previous US policy under President Joe Biden, when nuclear cooperation was tied to progress on Israeli normalization.
This delinking of the nuclear deal from Israeli normalization reflects both the stalled peace process due to the Gaza conflict and a major concession by Washington to Riyadh.
White House officials and Trump himself have confirmed that a visit to Israel will not occur on this trip, despite speculation and some Israeli hopes that he might add a stop in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv.
"We will be doing it at some point. But not for this trip," Trump said last week.
The decision has caused unease among Israeli officials, who see it as a signal of shifting US priorities in the region and growing friction between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly over the Gaza war, the president's Iran policy, and his broader regional strategy.
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
- By Kian Sharifi
PKK Ends Armed Struggle, Seeks Peaceful Path For Kurdish Rights
The Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, has announced it is dissolving its organizational structure and ending its decades-long armed struggle against Turkey, marking a historic shift after more than 40 years of conflict that has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
The decision, announced on May 12, marks a significant step toward ending one of the region's longest and deadliest insurgencies, with the group now calling for the Kurdish issue to be resolved through democratic means.
The PKK: From Cultural Rights To Armed Insurgency To Disbanding
The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is a Kurdish militant organization founded in 1978 by Abdullah Ocalan and others with the aim of establishing an independent Kurdish state or achieving greater Kurdish autonomy within Turkey.
The PKK initially sought to promote Kurdish cultural rights and political recognition but later embraced a more armed insurgency to pursue its objectives. It is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, the European Union, and several other countries, due to its involvement in numerous attacks, bombings, and clashes resulting in civilian and military casualties.
The PKK operates predominantly in southeastern Turkey, as well as in parts of Iraq, Syria, and Iran where Kurdish populations reside. Over the years, the group has experienced periods of cease-fire and peace talks, especially during the early 2010s, but conflicts have largely continued. The PKK's ideology combines Kurdish nationalism with socialist principles, emphasizing Kurdish cultural rights, gender equality, and social justice.
The Turkish government has regarded the PKK as a major threat to national security, advocating strong military action against the group. Conversely, some Kurdish groups and international entities view the PKK as a liberation movement fighting for minority rights and self-determination.
The decision was made during the group's 12th congress, held last week in northern Iraq, and comes in response to a call from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who urged the group in February to lay down arms and pursue peace. The announcement was first reported by the Firat News Agency, an affiliate of PKK.
"The 12th PKK Congress has decided to dissolve the PKK's organizational structure and end its method of armed struggle," the group said in a statement. "As a result, activities carried out under the name 'PKK' were formally terminated."
Wladimir van Wilgenburg, a political analyst specializing in Kurdish affairs, told RFE/RL that the Kurdish community in Turkey had grown "tired of the conflict and is hoping for peace."
However, he added that Kurds were not sure whether they could trust the Turkish government and wondered if Ankara would take steps toward reconciliation, such as releasing Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas and recognizing Kurdish rights.
"So, they're a bit mistrustful and unsure about what will happen," van Wilgenburg said.
Resolution Through Democratic Means
The PKK said the practical process of dissolution and disarmament will be managed and overseen by Ocalan, who has been incarcerated on an island near Istanbul since 1999.
According to the congress declaration, the PKK's struggle had "brought the Kurdish issue to the point of resolution through democratic politics, thus completing its historical mission."
The group did not elaborate on what the exactly means, but van Wilgenburg said it was unlikely PKK commanders would enter Turkish politics, seeing as there already is an active pro-Kurdish party in Turkey in the form of Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
"Most likely they mean that from now on Kurdish politics will be conducted through legal politics and the Turkish parliament, not guerrilla warfare," he added.
The PKK, designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union, began its insurgency in 1984 with the initial aim of creating an independent Kurdish state. In recent years, its demands shifted toward greater autonomy and rights for Kurds within Turkey.
United, But To What Extent?
Earlier this year, the PKK declared a unilateral cease-fire, stating it was "to pave the way for...peace and democratic society," but set conditions including the creation of a legal framework for peace negotiations.
The group's statement said its mission had been completed and expressed hope that Kurdish political parties would "fulfill their responsibilities in developing Kurdish democracy and ensure the formation of a Kurdish democratic nation."
Van Wilgenburg noted that while PKK seems united in its decision, the organization has had issues with splinter groups in the past, such as when Ocalan's younger brother Osman Ocalan broke away and formed his own short-lived political-military group in 2004.
One key question, van Wilgenburg said, is whether the organization's affiliates in other countries, such as Iran, will abide by the decision or continue their struggle.
Omer Celik, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), demanded on May 12 that the PKK's decision to disarm and disband be implemented "concretely and in full as well as in a manner comprising all of the PKK's branches."
It is estimated that 40,000 people have lost their lives in the PKK-Turkey conflict, with some casualties resulting from PKK attacks on military and civilian targets, as well as Turkish military operations against the group and the communities that supported it.
- By Kian Sharifi
Trump Eyes Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal, Sidestepping Israeli Concerns
In a policy shift that has unsettled officials in Israel, the United States under President Donald Trump is no longer conditioning Saudi Arabia's civil nuclear ambitions on normalization with Israel.
The move, first reported ahead of Trump's May 13 visit to Riyadh, marks a sharp departure from the Biden administration's approach, which had linked nuclear cooperation and security guarantees to a broader regional deal involving Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts.
Under Biden, Saudi nuclear talks were tied to progress on normalization with Israel, with Washington hoping Riyadh's leverage could help extract concessions from Israel toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.
But with normalization effectively frozen -- due largely to the war in Gaza and Saudi Arabia's insistence on Palestinian statehood -- the Trump administration has opted for a more transactional approach.
This decoupling is seen by some as a reflection of Trump's priorities.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst with the New York-based Eurasia Group, said the policy shift "isn't too surprising" given Washington and Riyadh's mutual interest in forging closer ties.
He told RFE/RL that, for now, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is content with "getting massive arms sales and a verbal commitment to assisting Saudi Arabia should it come under attack," even as normalization remains off the table until "the situation in Gaza is resolved and progress is made toward a Palestinian state."
For Trump, economic deliverables appear paramount -- and the Saudis seem to understand that.
Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel, suggested that Riyadh may have tailored its offer to Trump's interests.
"I think they grasp what motivates Trump and played their cards well," Horowitz told RFE/RL. "Trump wants his first regional tour to be a success, which entails securing major announcements, including Saudi investments in the United States."
A Deal at Any Cost?
Trump is keen on securing major Saudi investments and ensuring the United States is involved in the kingdom's nuclear program, regardless of the implications for Israel or the Middle East.
"[Trump] will view this as a victory on two fronts -- without looking at the possible consequences regionally or for Israel -- particularly if he feels Israel is being ‘difficult' on other topics, including Gaza and Iran," Horowitz said.
While some disagree , tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been mounting, with the US president reportedly frustrated over Netanyahu's reluctance to align with Washington on key regional initiatives. For Israel, normalization with Saudi Arabia has been a strategic goal and a critical component of any future US-Saudi deal.
Now, that deal appears to be moving forward without Israeli input, presenting a "major setback" for Israel, according to Horowitz.
"What the Saudis are trying to secure is US approval for a program that does not follow [the] gold standard and would allow them to enrich uranium domestically. This is another layer of concern for Israel," he added.
Israeli leaders have also voiced doubts that a Saudi nuclear deal can pass the US Senate without Israeli involvement. But the Trump administration appears determined to press ahead.
The Iran Angle
Analysts warn the implications could reverberate across the region -- particularly in Iran, where nuclear talks with the United States remain fragile .
Washington says Tehran should abandon enrichment and instead import uranium, assuming it is even allowed to maintain a civil nuclear program. Iran, however, maintains that its enrichment capabilities are "nonnegotiable."
If the United States agrees to let Saudi Arabia enrich uranium, "it will have an even harder time arguing that Iran shouldn't do so itself," Horowitz said.
"This would be another clear signal that the United States isn't looking to ‘fully dismantle' the Iranian program as Israel demands, but to simply put limits," he added.
For the Saudis, the ability to enrich uranium is about more than energy -- it carries strategic weight. It keeps the option of weaponization on the table, serving as a form of deterrence.
"It presents a credible threat that any Iranian weaponization would likely trigger a similar response by Saudi Arabia," Brew said. "That's not something the Iranians would welcome."
- By Kian Sharifi
Trump's Reported Move To Rename Persian Gulf Unites Iranians In Outrage
If there's one thing that transcends Iranians' personal beliefs and politics, it's the name of the body of water historically known as the Persian Gulf -- a name that has become a point of national pride amid efforts by some Arab states to rename it the Arabian Gulf.
So it came as little surprise that Iranians responded with outrage after a report that US President Donald Trump had endorsed the suggested name change.
The Associated Press reported on May 7 that Trump was planning to announce a change to either the "Arabian Gulf" or the "Gulf of Arabia."
The announcement, the AP report said, would come during Trump's visit to the Middle East next week.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on May 7 dismissed the report as likely part of a "disinformation" effort to "provoke and agitate Iranians worldwide."
He warned that while such a move would carry "no validity or legal or geographical effect," it would "only bring the wrath of all Iranians from all walks of life and political persuasion in in Iran, the US, and across the world."
Can It Hurt Opposition Support For Trump Policies?
Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), warned that the move risked alienating Trump's support among Iranians who back his strong stance against the Islamic republic.
"This decision will have the inadvertent effect of watering down [Trump's] pro-max pressure constituency inside and outside the US and Iran that has supported the White House's Iran agenda while bolstering voices skeptical of his approach," he wrote on X.
The State Department and White House have consistently used the name Persian Gulf in line with the official policy of the US Board on Geographic Names, which has rejected proposals to change it to "Arabian Gulf."
In contrast, US Central Command and the US Navy often use "Arabian Gulf" in regional communications and documents, especially to align with Arab partners, though their usage sometimes varies between "Arabian Gulf" and the more neutral "the Gulf."
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that the US military has used the term "Arabian Gulf" for years. But, he added, "In my experience, there's one thing that unites Iranians: ensuring it's called Persian Gulf."
Indeed, Iranian-American organizations with sharply differing political views issued separate statements on X opposing any name change.
"There has always been and will only ever be one name for the Persian Gulf," declared the National Union for Democracy in Iran. The National Iranian American Council echoed the sentiment: "It's the Persian Gulf -- today, tomorrow, and forever."
The name of the waterway is a deeply emotional issue for many Iranians, tied to pride in their country's heritage as the heart of the ancient Persian Empire.
Tensions flared in 2017 during Trump's first term when he referred to it as the "Arabian Gulf," prompting then-President Hassan Rouhani to quip that Trump should "study geography."
At the time, Iran's former crown prince Reza Pahlavi wrote a letter to Trump urging him to refrain from referring to the "historically unchallengeable Persian Gulf" by any other name. Pahlavi's supporters have been reposting his letter on X, though some have questioned the veracity of the reported plan to change the name.
Implications Beyond National Pride
Some have argued that changing the name of the Persian Gulf in the United States can do more than just hurt the pride of Iranians, such as leading to a breakdown in nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington.
Abdolrasool Divsallar, a security expert and adjunct professor at the Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan, said the move would be "a very bad decision in a very bad time."
He argued that it would "certainly have major negative implications on the nuclear talks, likely to cause Iran's unexpected reactions."
Meanwhile, Iran-based political commentator Mostafa Najafi speculated that the move could affect the legal status of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb -- three small but strategically important islands in the Persian Gulf that are controlled by Iran but claimed by the United Arab Emirates.
"Tehran backing down in the face of Trump's potential move, encouraged by Arab emirs and monarchs, would deal a major blow to Iran's national security and regional standing," he wrote on X.
This comes months after Trump’s executive order in January to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America.”
The AP declined to adopt the new terminology, prompting the White House to restrict its journalists from covering most official events.
In response, the AP filed a lawsuit against the administration. In April, a US district judge ruled that the First Amendment protects the wire service from government retaliation over editorial decisions and ordered that its full access to White House events be reinstated.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Tests Missile It Claims Can Reach Israel, Get Past US Defenses
Iran says it has "successfully" tested a new ballistic missile that it claims can reach Israel and penetrate some of the most advanced missile-defense systems in the world.
Amid growing concerns in the West over Tehran's advancing nuclear and missile programs, Iran's state TV on May 4 aired footage of the Qassem Basir missile being tested and apparently hitting its target.
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said the solid-fueled missile has a range of 1,200 kilometers and can penetrate Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-missile system that the United States deployed to Israel last year.
Nasirzadeh said the new missile was developed by addressing weaknesses revealed during operations True Promise 1 and 2 -- Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel in April and October last year.
The minister asserted that the missile had been upgraded in both guidance and maneuverability to help it get through layers of air defense and claimed it was resistant to electronic jamming.
Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said Qassem Basir is an upgraded version of the Martyr Hajj Qassem missile, which was named after slain IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and unveiled in 2020.
The missile was unveiled on the same day that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a missile attack near Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, injuring several people and briefly disrupting air traffic.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the attack on Iranian support for the Houthis and pledged retaliation against both the Yemeni group and Tehran.
The missile notably evaded sophisticated air defense systems. Israel is said to have had two THAAD batteries and at least one Arrow 3 interceptor system in operation at the time of the attack.
Experts say the Qassem Basir missile marks the first usage by Tehran of optical seekers on a medium-range ballistic missile.
Russian-based weapons expert Yuri Lyamin noted that the new medium-range ballistic missile was now Iran's "most long-ranged" missile equipped with electro optical (EO) seekers, replacing the short-range ballistic missile Zolfaghar Basir.
Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, explained that -- in theory -- this missile uses its own camera to navigate by matching what it sees against stored visual information. This means there's no external radio signal to interrupt, making it effectively jamming-resistant.
Hinz told RFE/RL that the accuracy of Iranian missiles that struck Israel, especially last October, "was not great." He attributed it to potential signal jamming, which is what prompted Iran to work on developing missiles that use EO seekers.
Nasirzadeh warned that any military aggression from the United States or Israel would prompt a global response targeting their assets and bases.
He stressed that while Iran does not seek confrontation, it will respond "firmly" if challenged.
- By Kian Sharifi
Yemen's Houthis Grow Bolder Despite US Bombing Campaign
Since March 15, the United States has intensified its aerial campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, claiming to have hit more than 1,000 targets.
Dubbed “Operation Rough Rider,” the campaign is intended to halt Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and ratchet up pressure on Tehran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations.
But despite the scale of the strikes, analysts question whether the effort has made any lasting impact.
“The Houthis remain undeterred,” said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consultancy.
He noted that, while some Houthi infrastructure has been destroyed and personnel killed, the group appears to have turned the campaign to its advantage.
“Any losses are likely short-term and temporary,” he told RFE/RL, citing a boost in Houthi recruitment and fundraising.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense analyst with the global intelligence company Janes, added that the Houthis’ continued ability to launch attacks -- particularly against Israel and US drones -- undermines US claims of degrading their capabilities.
“It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9,” Binnie said.
A recent admission by the US Navy that an F/A-18 fighter fell off the USS Harry S. Truman during a maneuver to avoid a Houthi strike has only reinforced perceptions that the group remains a potent threat.
Meanwhile, the group has continued launching missiles toward Israel, claiming responsibility on May 2 for two strikes that prompted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to intercept both and activate nationwide sirens.
US Central Command insists that the campaign has degraded the pace and effectiveness of the group's attacks.
"Ballistic missile launches have dropped by 69 percent. Additionally, attacks from one way attack drones have decreased by 55%," CENTCOM said in a statement on April 27. "Iran undoubtedly continues to provide support to the Houthis. The Houthis can only continue to attack our forces with the backing of the Iranian regime."
Have The Attacks Impacted Relations With Iran?
Analysts warn that the strikes may be having the opposite effect on regional dynamics, driving the Houthis closer to Tehran rather than isolating them.
The group -- formally known as the Ansarallah movement and designated a terrorist organization by the United States -- is a key member of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” a network of nonstate actors that has faced setbacks over the past year.
But since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, the Houthis have elevated their role within that alliance, claiming attacks on Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians.
While their growing prominence has afforded them some autonomy, experts say they remain deeply reliant on Iran for weapons and strategic support.
“You know very well what the US military is capable of -- and you were warned,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X on May 1, addressing Iran directly. “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”
Still, Clarke argues that the strikes may have only deepened the Houthi-Iran alliance.
“If anything, the strikes have pushed the Houthis closer to Iran,” he said, casting doubt on whether a future nuclear agreement would change Tehran’s behavior.
Binnie echoed Clarke’s skepticism. “US officials might hope the campaign pressures Iran,” he said, “but it’s difficult to say if that is happening.”
A fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States was initially slated for May 3 in Rome but has been postponed due to what Omani mediators described as “logistical reasons.”
With weeks of sustained bombing behind it, the United States appears no closer to deterring Houthi attacks or weakening their political backing -- raising hard questions about the strategic value of the campaign.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Accuses Israel's Netanyahu Of Trying To Derail Nuclear Talks
Iran's top diplomat has accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to dictate US policy toward Iran after the premier renewed his call for the full dismantlement of Tehran's nuclear program.
Iranian and US negotiators concluded a third round of indirect talks over Iran's nuclear program on April 26, with a fourth round scheduled for May 3, likely in a European country.
Speaking in Jerusalem a day after the talks, Netanyahu said any deal with Iran must aim for the complete dismantling of the nuclear program and also address Tehran's missile capabilities.
"The real deal that works is the deal which removes Iran's capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said, adding that a good agreement should also "bring in the prevention of ballistic missiles."
Writing on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said it was "striking…how brazenly Netanyahu is now dictating what President Trump can and cannot do in his diplomacy with Iran."
The Iranian diplomat maintained that his country was "strong and confident enough" to "thwart any attempt by malicious external actors to sabotage its foreign policy or dictate its course."
"We can only hope our US counterparts are equally steadfast," he added.
Netanyahu's comment came after a deadly explosion hit Iran’s Shahid Rajaei port, killing at least 46 people and injuring more than 1,000.
Some speculate that the explosion was linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make ballistic missile fuel, though Iran denies any sort of fuel was being stored in the container terminal.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the sharp orange color of the initial fire was consistent with burning sodium perchlorate, a component used in rocket fuel. Open-source data suggests Iran took shipments of the chemical at the port earlier this year.
According to various reports, the Donald Trump administration previously held Netanyahu back from launching strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities. However, the US president has said he himself would be "leading the pack" toward war with Iran if he cannot clinch a deal.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader and former national security adviser, warned on April 28 that Israel would face "unimaginable consequences" if it attacked Iran's nuclear sites.
"The question is: Are these threats the result of Israel acting on its own, or are they coordinated with Trump to push forward negotiations with Iran?" he wrote on X.
- By Kian Sharifi
Verify Or Dismantle? Trump's Iran Nuclear Dilemma
US President Donald Trump surprised almost everyone when he announced in an Oval Office briefing -- with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting right beside him -- that high-level direct talks on Iran's nuclear program were scheduled for April 12 in Oman.
It is unclear whether Iran wanted to keep it quiet, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi felt the immediate need to clarify in the middle of the night Tehran time that talks would be indirect, contrary to what Trump had said.
Regardless of the format, both sides have framed the rendezvous as an exploratory meeting to see if negotiations can be held.
But beneath the headlines lies a deeper strategic debate: What exactly should the United States demand from Iran's nuclear program -- tight oversight or total dismantlement?
Trump has been clear about what Washington's end-goal is: Iran can never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. What he hasn't explicitly talked about is whether that means imposing restrictions on Iran's nuclear program or completely dismantling it.
Instead, senior members of his administration have been doing the talking, but they've been sending contradictory messages.
Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy who will be leading the US delegation in the Oman talks, said last month that Washington wants to "create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of [Iran's] nuclear material."
The implication was that the United States wants to curb enrichment and establish an oversight mechanism to ensure Iran's nuclear program remains peaceful -- something that Iran claims has always been its intention.
But national-security adviser Mike Waltz struck a different chord days later, charging that the administration wants "full dismantlement," adding, "Iran has to give up its program in a way that the entire world can see."
What Should The US Aim For?
Proponents of full dismantlement of the nuclear program say it is the only surefire way to ensure Iran won't ever acquire nukes.
Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), argues Trump should not entertain arms control.
"Rather than seeking to limit Iran's atomic program, it should be forced to junk it altogether," Taleblu told RFE/RL.
He conceded that going for dismantlement is "high risk" but argued it is achievable and necessary through pressure such as stepping up sanctions and holding joint military drills with Israel.
Indeed, the US Treasury on April 9 announced sanctions on five entities and one person based in Iran for their support of Iran's nuclear program, including the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).
And if talks are futile, Taleblu said, Trump should be ready to walk away.
"The Islamic republic will only seriously consider surrender if it knows America has a credible exit option," he added.
A major supporter of the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program is Netanyahu, who has floated the idea of a "Libya-style agreement," which Tehran has long rejected.
Others argue that any demand for Iran to fully dismantle the program would be seen in Tehran as political suicide.
"US demands for full dismantlement or a ‘Libya-style' deal that involves Iran breaking apart its entire nuclear program would be a nonstarter for Tehran," said Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group.
He argued that aiming for implementing a verification scheme to keep Iran's nuclear program in check "would, at the very least, provide a basis for further discussions."
But if Washington is intent on tearing down Iran's nuclear program, "talks will be over fast, and the risk of military escalation will go up," Brew added.
Is Iran Ready To Risk War?
The 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, formally expires in October. With it gone, the UN Security Council (UNSC) will lose the power to reimpose sanctions on Iran.
So, the West is running out of both time and patience.
Trump has warned Iran that it will bomb it if no agreement is reached. France, also a permanent member of the UNSC and a signatory to the 2015 deal, has expressed concern that the absence of a new agreement would make the prospect of military confrontation "almost inevitable."
The United States has been flexing its muscles and beefing up its military presence in the region. It has been launching air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels for weeks, using some of its most sophisticated hardware against a group that does not even have an air force to speak of.
"The deployments offer the United States a credible military threat that can serve to put more pressure on Iran," Brew said. "The United States is clearly signaling that it is prepared to escalate if talks fail or if Iran advances its nuclear program to weaponization."
The stakes for the regime are very high, he added.
But Taleblu believes the Islamic republic is ultimately risk-averse and won't want to risk a military confrontation.
"There are instances in history, admittedly not many, where the regime has significantly backtracked on a stated security goal it sunk significant capital into," he asserted. "In instances where Tehran senses strength and a willingness to grow penalties and impose costs over time that could meaningfully threaten the regime, it has backed down."
The stage is set for diplomacy in Oman. As the clock ticks, the question is who will blink first.
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