Belarus: Mixed Feelings About Poland's Interest

Belarusian opposition leader Alyaksandr Milinkevich is ushered into the Polish parliament by the speaker of the Sejm, Marek Jurek, on January 25. (epa) Poland's government and NGOs have been among the most outspoken critics of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime in Belarus. But what do Belarusians think? Do they take this as Poland extending a brotherly hand? Or as the unwelcome meddling of a foreign state?

PRAGUE, March 17, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Poles as a whole seem enthusiastic about supporting democracy in Belarus, and not just its political elite. Last week, the Polish parliament adopted a resolution condemning the Belarusian authorities for their intimidation of opposition candidates and activists, and on March 12 thousands of ordinary Poles attended a "Solidarity with Belarus" rock concert in the Polish capital, Warsaw, featuring Belarusian rock groups banned in their homeland.

Agnieszka Komorowska, the coordinator of the European Choice for Belarus program at the Warsaw-based Stefan Batory Foundation, says Poles' interest is inevitable.

"Every country wants to have neighbors with which it can have a dialogue and discuss different issues and problems that crop up," says Komorowska, whose foundation's mission is to support the development of open, democratic societies in Central and East Europe. "And in the case of Belarus, we do not have such a partner and we do not have a dialogue. So democracy seems to be a guarantee of change and of having someone in power with whom we can work."

That is a notion that the Polish government subscribes to. It has sponsored a number of initiatives in Belarus, including Radio Racja (Radio Reason), which broadcasts from eastern Poland and Lithuania into Belarus. Initially launched in 1999, the radio suspended operations in 2002 due to lack of funding. However, in February, the station was brought back onto the air.

Polish universities have also extended a hand across the border, offering Belarusian students and scholars internships and scholarships.

As for Polish NGOs, they will remain intent on helping Belarus in the long term, Komorowska believes. "There is a group of Polish nongovernmental organizations for whom Belarus is a priority, or has been for many, many years," she says. "And that is not going to change."

For their labors, Polish NGOs have sometimes run into trouble with the Belarusian government. In July 2005, Minsk accused the Dialogue European Fund of spying and ordered it out of Belarus, though the Fund's remit is apolitical: it promotes cooperation between scientists across Central and Eastern Europe.

Views Across The Border And Political Divide

Belarusian united opposition candidate Alyaksandr Milinkevich met with Polish President Lech Kaczynski in Warsaw on January 25 (RFE/RL)

But how do Belarusians view these Polish initiatives?

Valery Karbalevich, an analyst with the Minsk-based Strategy Center for Political Analysis, says people differ in their attitudes toward Poland as much as they differ in their attitudes toward reforms.

He says that Belarusians who live in the western part of the country are generally positive about Poland. Many of them have been to Poland, or can watch Polish television programs .

However, many others are influenced by the authorities' anti-Western stance.

"Official propaganda uses all the means available to foment hatred for the West in general and for Poland in particular," says Karbalevich. "For many Belarusians, who support Lukashenka and his policies, the West is associated with Poland. The West is a kind of abstraction -- Germany, France, Great Britain are far away -- but Poland is nearby."

Karbalevich says that the Belarusian authorities' official line is that Poland is a NATO country and NATO will soon have military bases there. That would pose an imminent threat to Belarus, the line goes.

At times, relations between Minsk and Warsaw have become heated. In early February, an unnamed official of Belarus's State Security Committee (KGB) said on Belarusian state television that the embassy had become a headquarters for foreign secret services. The KGB provided no evidence and Poland denied the accusations.

The Belarusian authorities also say that, as well as helping the country's opposition, Poland is encouraging the country's large Polish minority to be unpatriotic. There are estimated to be 417,000 ethnic Poles in Belarus.

Outlook Unchanged?

So, is all this making Belarusians more hostile toward their neighboring Poles? A recent survey certainly supports that notion.

"A poll conducted by Professor [Oleg] Manayev and his group [of sociologists] shows that the number of people in Belarus who have negative attitudes both towards Poland and Lithuania is increasing," says Karbalevich.

With the March 19 presidential election now just hours away, the Belarusian authorities are particularly jumpy at present.

Still, Lukashenka seems certain to win the vote. If so, relations between Minsk and Warsaw are unlikely to improve any time soon.