Exit Polls Give Borisov's Center-Right GERB Big Lead In Bulgaria

Former Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov leaves a polling station after casting his ballot during the snap parliamentary and European Parliament elections at a polling station in Sofia on June 9.

SOFIA -- Former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's center-right GERB party appears to have won snap parliamentary elections, according to exit polls in Bulgaria's sixth such vote in the past three years, although it remains uncertain whether any party can cobble together a governing coalition.

Exit polls by Alpha Research and Gallup International gave GERB about 25 percent of the vote, far ahead of the second- and third-place parties in a contest on June 9 that could bring the populist leader -- who has been accused of corruption by the opposition -- back to power.

The exit polls showed several other groups trailing GERB, including the party's erstwhile partner in the outgoing coalition government, the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition (PP-DB), which was third at 14.3-15 percent.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) was second in the polls at about 16 percent. DPS has traditionally represented the Turkish and Muslim population in the country but is now led for the first time by an ethnic Bulgarian, Delyan Peevski, who has been hit by sanctions for corruption by the United States and Britain.

The pro-Russia Revival party (Vazrazhdane) had around 14 percent.

The former communist Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) had just over 7 percent and the populist There Is Such a People just under 6 percent.

Official results were just beginning to trickle in after midnight.

Borisov earlier on June 9 expressed doubts that any party or coalition will be able to form a new government based on early indications of voting.

"From the morning voting, I do not see how a government can be formed after these elections," Borisov said after casting his ballot on June 9 in Bankya, a small town outside of Sofia.

He added that it did not appear likely that his GERB party would be in line for enough parliamentary seats to do it with any one potential partner and neither would the opposition with its allies.

"Either it's just us [GERB] or nobody, so there is no mathematics in this case," said Borisov, who declined to say who GERB would potentially nominate for prime minister.

Former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov casts his ballot at a polling station in Sofia on June 9.

As of 4 p.m., voter turnout for the parliamentary elections was 20.44 percent, election officials said, down from 27.3 percent in the April 2023 election.

Turnout for a simultaneous European Parliament vote was 20.89 percent, down from 39.8 percent the last time, although that count was taken an hour later at 5 p.m.

Preelection polls showed that GERB and its United Democratic Forces partner would receive the most votes, with 25 percent, potentially returning Borisov to power.

Regardless of the outcome, Borisov is likely to remain an influential figure and potential power broker in the country.

Borisov has led three governments over the past decade, but his support has weakened amid allegations of corruption, links to oligarchs, and attacks on media freedom.

The reformist PP-DB coalition was seen in preelection polls as getting about 15 percent, down from the 24.6 percent last time as many supporters may desert the party for its previous partnering with GERB.

PP-DB had agreed to work with its GERB rivals on a common pro-EU platform of ensuring that Bulgaria supports Ukraine's battle against the Russian invasion, but disagreements between leaders of the two parties mean a renewed coalition government appears unlikely.

Among the reasons for the breakup of the PP-DB-GERB partnership has been the PP-DB demand for reforms in the judiciary and in the security services, alleging that they have provided cover for organized crime and that they have not done enough to counter Russian influence.

SEE ALSO: Pro-Kremlin Forces On Rise In Bulgaria Ahead Of European Elections

GERB has been supported by DPS leader Peevski, who has been hit by sanctions for corruption by the United States under the Global Magnitsky Act, a move then matched by Britain. The pro-Ukrainian former media mogul is reportedly one of the richest people in Bulgaria.

PP-DB has claimed that GERB and DPS act as one party. "Anytime we had a meeting with Borisov, Peevski was already in the room," former PP-DB Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov said.

SEE ALSO: Former Bulgarian PM Blasts Powerful Oligarch Peevski As The Country's 'Biggest Evil'

Borisov said that GERB would not partner solely with DPS to form a coalition.

GERB could turn to the MRF Turkish minority party, which also has about 15 percent in the polls.

If Borisov is unable to cobble together a government, another election -- the seventh in three years -- is likely, observers say.

"We are weary of elections, and we want some stability and some prosperity for the country," pensioner Margarita Semerdzhieva, 72, told AFP outside of a polling station in Sofia.

"I am voting for a better future," Antoaneta Hristova, 55, a marketing professional, told Reuters. "But, to be honest I think we are heading into more elections -- seven in three years. We have been the laughingstock of Europe for a long time."

A caretaker government led by Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev was sworn in by parliament on April 9 after being appointed by President Rumen Radev, who also announced the snap general elections for June 9.

Following elections in April last year, Bulgaria had a joint government supported by the pro-West, reformist PP-DB and Borisov’s GERB. They had agreed on an 18-month government with a rotation of prime ministers -- first Denkov from PP-DB and, after nine months, Maria Gabriel from GERB.

Denkov stepped down on March 5 to let GERB lead the government for the following nine months, as agreed. But Gabriel failed to form a government, and on March 27 Denkov also rejected Radev's invitation to try to put together a cabinet.

On March 28, the populist There Is Such a People (ITN) party also declined to attempt to form a government, thus setting up the June 9 election.

The vote is being held alongside EU elections.

Between June 6 and June 9, voters in all 27 EU member states went to the polls to elect 720 members of the European Parliament amid concerns by many leaders of a rise in far-right support in several countries.

The elections are held every five years, and each country is allotted a certain number of members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in direct proportion to its population size.

Voters elect national parties, but after the elections, the MEPs organize into political groups in the European Parliament that align with their parties' political ideologies.

Opinion polls heading into the elections for the European Parliament put the coalition of two center-right parties, GERB and the Union of Democratic Forces, in first place.

With reporting by AFP and Reuters