Europe Braces For Trump's Return

BRUSSELS -- EU officials are bracing themselves for Donald Trump's return to the White House.

They are preparing for the possibility of increased tensions in transatlantic trade and the likelihood that the bloc of 27 member states will have to shoulder a bigger burden of political and financial support for Ukraine.

Plus there's the fact that, in the past, Trump has preferred to deal with regional allies, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, rather than the European Union as a whole.

Speaking to EU officials as Trump was projected to win the U.S. presidential vote early on November 6, the mood was as somber as the Brussels weather was grim.

But there was also some bullishness -- and even optimism. They already have experience dealing with Trump and, in some ways, the EU has moved closer to some of the Republican candidate's policies. The bloc is much tougher on migration these days, and while Brussels is still hoping to strike free-trade deals around the world, the EU has become increasingly protectionist.

Some European diplomats think that the EU taking a more hawkish approach on China could get the transatlantic relationship off to a good start -- if, that is, the EU's export-oriented economies can afford the possible loss of trade from potential Chinese trade measures.

For NATO, the defense alliance that Trump threatened to leave in 2018 during his first term, the mood appears to be slightly less panicky.

While Trump has continued to cast doubt on NATO's mutual defense clause, Article 5, many officials in the alliance believe he is more focused on the EU. Besides, they say, the vast majority of members now spend the required 2 percent of GDP on defense, something they are happy to credit to Trump's past pressure. Not to mention, the optimists say, new NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is one of a select few Europeans who have the new president's ear.

There are two things that strike me when speaking to people from both the EU and NATO. First, Trump's entourage is now more of an unknown quantity. When he was elected in 2016, there were Republicans in his administration that European officials felt they could deal with: for example, Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, and John Bolton. This time around, officials seem to be more fearful -- wary, for example, of the isolationism of incoming Vice President J.D. Vance.

Secondly, there is a clear east-west divide. The officials I have spoken to from Western European countries are, at least on the surface, pretty glum about the prospects of a Trump presidency.

But from my conversations with politicians and officials from Central and Eastern Europe there is something else: hope, and maybe even excitement. They seem more comfortable with the transactional nature of Trump's politics and say his supposed unpredictability can be a good thing when dealing with Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

Regardless, the United States and Europe have been drifting apart for a while, as successive Washington administrations increasingly pivot toward the Pacific. That gulf is only likely to widen in the future.