The death of Yahya Sinwar just months after he was named the top leader of Hamas highlights the difficulties the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group has in protecting high-value targets from Israel, but it might not have a major effect on the course of the war in the Gaza Strip.
The 62-year-old Sinwar was accused of organizing and directing Hamas's deadly assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, landing him at the top of Israel's hit list.
Israel confirmed on October 17 that Sinwar was killed in a military operation in the southern city of Rafah in Gaza. Hamas has not yet commented.
Sinwar's death highlights the high turnover rate of senior Hamas members as well as Israel's "very deep coverage in terms of intelligence and the ability to strike quickly when high-value targets are detected," said Lucas Webber, senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism and research fellow at the Soufan Center.
The timing of Sinwar's death is also significant, he said, coming as Israel is renewing its offensive in northern Gaza and expanding operations against Hamas ally Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
"It's seen as a tactical success, taking out a high-value target at a time when they kind of need this internal support for the expansion of their internal and external military campaign," Webber said.
A billboard with a picture of Sinwar is displayed in Tehran.
Webber was doubtful about the impact that Sinwar's death could have toward ending the war in Gaza, however.
"He [Sinwar] was obviously very experienced and had a high status among Hamas and its supporters, but I don't think his killing will change the trajectory of the conflict in any fundamental way," Webber said.
Sinwar became Hamas's top leader soon after Israel's suspected assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the group's political chief, in Tehran on July 31.
Hamas is still fighting nearly a year after Israel's retaliatory invasion of Gaza and will be difficult to defeat, Webber notes. Sinwar's death might require some "reorientation" by Hamas, he said, but will not "factor too much" into Israel's attempts to win the war.
Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank, says it's difficult to gauge the impact Sinwar's death will have on Hamas's viability to remain in power in Gaza.
But he does see two possible outcomes to Sinwar's death.
"One is that Israel becomes emboldened to even more intensely pursue the complete destruction of Hamas and Gaza," he said. "The other option, which would be more positive, is that his death would create an opening for negotiations to actually lead to an end to the conflict."
Neither Hamas nor Israel has to this point been seriously interested in ending the war, Cambanis says.
"Both sides see it in their interest to continue fighting,” he added. “Sinwar's death could change the dynamic for the better by creating an opening for Hamas to either surrender or come to some kind of negotiated settlement that until now, its leadership hasn't really been that interested in pursuing."
As for who would be in line to replace Sinwar, who was seen as a "ruthless" replacement for his predecessor Haniyeh, Cambanis said that can go two ways as well.
"We've seen more pragmatic people follow after periods of really intense extremism, and then we've also seen factions or parties where people really double down and with each leader who gets killed the successor is even more hard-line," he said.
Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that the "idea behind Hamas -- that Palestinian statehood only can come through armed resistance against Israel -- has not only not been killed, but it has also likely flourished."
"Israel's indiscriminate bombing of Gaza and massive killings of civilians, including forced starvation, has likely radicalized the Palestinian people and provided more ground for recruitment for Hamas," he added.