The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, in Tehran has sent shock waves across the region, once against raising the specter of all-out war between Iran and its archfoe, Israel.
Haniyeh was killed early on July 31 in an affluent neighborhood of Tehran, soon after attending the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian in parliament.
His killing is the latest in a string of assassinations in and around the Iranian capital in recent years that the Islamic republic has blamed on Israel, which has not claimed any of the incidents.
Analysts say Haniyeh's assassination is a major hit to the already tarnished reputation of Iran's security apparatus and will prompt Tehran to retaliate, though that response is unlikely to come directly from the Islamic republic.
SEE ALSO: Iran Versus Israel: Who Has The Military Edge?Just hours before the Palestinian leader's death, Israel claimed it killed a top commander of the Lebanese militant group Hizballah in an air strike in Beirut.
Yossi Melman, a Tel Aviv-based analyst and the intelligence and strategic affairs correspondent for the Israeli daily Haaretz, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Iran and Tehran-backed Hizballah "will have to respond" once they "recover from their traumas and shocks."
‘Strong Message' To Iran And Allies
Just a week ago, Iran's outgoing intelligence minister, Esmai Khatib, told reporters that the ministry's biggest accomplishment under his tenure was "breaking up Mossad's infiltration network," referring to Israel's intelligence agency.
Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran, amid heightened security due to the presence of dozens of high-ranking Iranian and foreign officials for Pezeshkian's inauguration, has brought Khatib's claim under scrutiny.
"This is certainly a massive failure of Iranian security, one in a long string of failures going back decades that demonstrate Israel and the United States have access to some of the Islamic republic's most sensitive secrets and can put this information to spectacular use to inflict major defeats," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
He added that Haniyeh's killing "severely embarrasses the Islamic republic and sends it a strong message that none of its officials and allies are safe."
Potential Response
In April, Iran launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack against Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its diplomatic compound in Damascus. Days later, suspected Israeli strikes hit a military base outside Iran's central city of Isfahan.
Tehran has largely avoided getting directly involved in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip that broke out in October, instead using its network of militant groups and proxies to hit Israel.
But Sabet said the Islamic republic may feel pressure to respond directly to the killing of Haniyeh to compensate for the embarrassment of failing to prevent his assassination on Iranian soil.
Ismail Haniyeh embraces Hossein Salami, the chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), in the Iranian parliament during Pezeshkian's inauguration on July 30.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after the killing that it was "our duty" to avenge Haniyeh.
Iran's mission to the UN said in a tweet on X that Tehran's response will be "special operations -- harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator."
"Iran is facing a conundrum: If it delivers a direct response [to Israel], the military and political consequences may not be in its favor," Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Radio Farda.
"Therefore, I think the response, which will be serious, will come through Hizballah and at least not from Iran's own territory like we saw in April."
Alireza Namvar Haghighi, a professor at the University of Toronto, warned that it would be "dangerous" for Iran to allow itself to be driven by emotions and fall into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "trap" to drag Iran into the wider conflict in the Middle East.
"Iran needs to manage tensions," he told Radio Farda.