Russia and Iran have both seen their international standing diminish in recent years. And as each seeks a way to boost their military and diplomatic influence, Africa looks like a land of opportunity.
There are no signs that Moscow and Tehran, whose bilateral ties have become closer as they each try to counter punitive international sanctions, are working in lockstep in Africa.
But their aims in the continent often align, and experts say the two are each attempting to capitalize on similar situations, including political instability, war, and apathy toward the influence of Western powers.
"Both Iran and Russia, what they see in Africa is an opportunity to break their diplomatic isolation," said Cameron Hudson, fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "They have been isolated by the West, financially, politically -- essentially branded as pariah states. And so, in Africa, they see 54 opportunities to break that status."
Russia and Iran have stepped up their engagement with African states, some of which are wary of the West and open to finding alternative trade and investment partners. Tehran and Moscow are notably active in places of conflict, such as West Africa and the Sahel, where juntas have made clear that Western forces are not welcome.
Hudson said Moscow's and Tehran’s involvement in Africa also has the "ancillary benefit of thumbing their nose" at the Western states behind the crippling international sanctions imposed on them.
The sanctions -- imposed over Russia's war in Ukraine and Iran's controversial nuclear program, among other things -- have effectively cut both Russia and Iran off from the global financial system and harmed their lucrative trade in arms and oil.
New Avenues
By opening new avenues of trade and influence in Africa, Moscow and Tehran can show that the attempts to isolate and punish them "is only marginally successful, and that they can build coalitions of states who support their interests," Hudson said.
The two countries see Africa as "a battleground where they can supplant the West and better position themselves economically, politically, and even militarily for prolonged tension with the West," said Liam Karr, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project.
Malians demonstrate against France and in support of Russia on the 60th anniversary of the independence of the Republic of Mali in September 2020.
Karr noted that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger -- former French colonies in the central Sahel where anti-Western military juntas have taken power -- "have increased cooperation with Iran and Russia as they distanced themselves from France."
The situation has already led to the expulsion of French troops from Niger and Mali. U.S. forces battling Islamist insurgents in the region have withdrawn from Niger's capital, Niamey, and will completely leave the country by September.
The rapidly changing landscape has led to some uncomfortable situations, such as when Russian troops backing Niger's junta were deployed in May to an air base housing U.S. soldiers.
Both Iran and Russia "use military engagement to 'get their foot in the door' with unstable or other isolated countries to pursue greater economic and political cooperation," Karr explained. Such military engagement, he added, also "allows them to use limited resources to threaten critical waterways, such as the Mediterranean and the Red Sea."
'Opportunity In Chaos'
Moscow's influence is marked by high-level political engagement, business dealings including arms sales, and the ubiquitous presence of pro-Kremlin mercenaries in conflict areas.
"Russia finds opportunity in chaos. And so, when there is political instability in a country, when there is a kind of organic rejection of the West, which we have seen in a lot of states in Africa that view the West as a kind of neocolonial actor, then that creates openings and opportunities for Russia to come in with its narrative," Hudson said.
Russia's military footprint is also the most hazardous, as evidenced by the deaths of scores of Russian Wagner mercenaries in fighting against Tuareg separatists linked to the Al-Qaeda terrorist network in Mali last month.
Both Iran and Russia have offered military support to the armed forces in Sudan in their fight against rebels. (file photo)
Iran is playing catch-up to its Russian ally, working to expand its influence on the continent through trade ties, arms sales, and the use of proxies and militant partners as part of its "axis of resistance" against Israel and the West in general.
In West Africa, Iran has reached out to the trio of juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In Nigeria, Tehran has established a proxy group called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, which functions like other proxies and partners.
Tehran has also used proxies to make its presence felt across the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, allowing it to put more pressure on regional adversaries, primarily Israel.
'Aligned Interests'
Iran's and Russia's interest in Africa sometimes overlaps, as is the case in Niger and in Sudan, where both are playing a role in the yearlong civil war between the Sudanese military and rebel forces.
"Sudan is a clear area where they both have military interests. Iran and Russia have both offered military support to the Sudanese Armed Forces hoping to secure a military base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast that would enable them to improve their military posture in the area vis-à-vis the West," Karr said. "Iran has offered drones, whereas Russia has offered 'unrestricted qualitative military aid.'"
Juntas that have taken power in Mali and Niger, meanwhile, are looking to Moscow and Tehran to fortify their positions.
"They certainly lack legitimacy in the West and among international institutions, and so building relations to Iran or to Russia helps them build legitimacy, because all of a sudden they look like state actors," Hudson said. "They look like they're doing the trade and diplomacy that a legitimate government would do."
Both Karr and Hudson say there are no clear signs that Russia and Iran are coordinating their strategies in Africa.
Karr said that "similar aims and methods mean that most of their efforts mutually reinforce each other," while Hudson noted "a set of aligned interests, but not interests that are being explicitly coordinated."