The FBI's arrest of an Afghan man who allegedly planned a U.S. Election Day attack has underscored the growing threat posed by the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group to the West.
Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, an Afghan citizen living in the United States, plotted an attack on November 5 in the name of IS-K, the U.S. Justice Department said.
Based in Afghanistan, IS-K has carried out a series of devastating, high-profile attacks in Russia, Iran, and Tajikistan in recent years.
"IS-K poses a dangerous threat to both the region and the West," said Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who tracks militancy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
"IS-K is not confined to Afghanistan alone,” Sayed added. “It operates with a global agenda and has a network functioning both regionally and internationally."
About 140 people were killed in the IS-K attack on a Moscow concert hall in March.
Resilient Force
IS-K is considered the most active and potent of all the regional affiliates of Islamic State (IS), the extremist group that overran large swaths of Iraq and Syria in 2014. IS was largely defeated by a U.S.-led coalition.
IS-K was founded in Afghanistan in late 2014 and captured small pockets of territory in the country as part of IS’s broader aim of expansion throughout South and Central Asia.
But it soon came under fire from Afghan and international forces as well as the Taliban, a rival militant group.
The threat posed by IS-K has increased since the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Western-backed Afghan government in 2021, analysts say.
The Taliban, which then seized power, has waged a brutal war against IS-K, killing or capturing its key commanders and hundreds of its fighters. But IS-K has embarked on a strategy of urban warfare and remains a resilient force.
The group's ranks have been boosted by foreign fighters, particularly those from the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.
That has allowed IS-K -- which seeks to establish a caliphate, or Islamic state, in Khorasan, a historical region that includes parts of modern-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia -- to continue its attacks in Afghanistan and conduct complex assaults in the region.
In March, IS-K militants stormed the Crocus City Hall outside Moscow, killing around 140 people, underlining the threat it poses in the region.
Exploiting Grievances
Experts say extremist groups like IS-K have tried to exploit the grievances among Muslims since Israel launched its devastating war in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave.
That came after Hamas, a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group, carried out an attack on Israel on October 7, killing around 1,200 people.
Israel has recently expanded its war by launching a deadly aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Lucas Webber, senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism, an UN-backed project that monitors extremism online, says IS-K has been vocal in calling for attacks against the West in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East.
"[IS-K] has a robust, multilingual propaganda apparatus," Webber told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. "They can reach a diverse range of diaspora communities to build support and mobilize supporters to violence."
Webber says IS-K and its recruiters have targeted Europe. Now, he said, "we're starting to see an increase of activity in North America and the United States, specifically."