Interview: Israel 'Very Polarized' One Year After October 7 Attack

One year ago, Hamas -- the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip -- carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel, the deadliest in the country’s history.

In response, Israel launched an aerial bombardment and ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave to destroy Hamas and rescue the 251 hostages taken by the group.

Israel has expanded its war in recent weeks by invading Lebanon and launching air strikes targeting Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

RFE/RL spoke to Lior Yohanani, manager of quantitative research at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based independent research center, which on October 7 released a wide-ranging survey of Israeli public opinion after one year of war.

RFE/RL: Can you explain what your study found as to how Israelis view the past year since Hamas's October 7 attack?

Lior Yohanani: Well, I think Israelis still don't see October 7 as an event that's over. Sure, the actual horrific events of that day ended, but Israelis are still living with the consequences.

There are two main aspects to this. First, since October 7, Israel has been in this multifront war that doesn't seem to have an end in sight. And then, of course, there is the issue of the hostages still being held in Gaza. So, we're seeing a sharp drop in people's sense of personal security. Almost three quarters of the public feel less safe compared to before October 7, and that's despite a year of war and some significant military achievements. On the flip side, we're also seeing that most people say their lives have returned to normal when it comes to things like work, media consumption, and family and social gatherings.

Another thing we're noticing is that the Israeli public is giving pretty low marks to all the political and military leaders for the performance since October 7. For example, almost two-thirds of Israelis are rating Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu's performance since then as poor or not good.

Lior Yohanani is the manager of quantitative research at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based independent research center.

RFE/RL: How has Israel's involvement in a two-front conflict, in both Gaza and Lebanon, as well as a confrontation with Iran affected public opinion among Israelis?

Yohanani: It's tough to answer that question, because we're at the point where things could go in a few different directions. In the last few weeks, we've seen a major escalation in the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and just last week, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, which Israel is expected to respond to. In a survey we just did recently, we asked whether Israeli society and the military could handle fighting on two or more fronts for an extended period of time, and the results were pretty striking. Over 70 percent believe that yes, both Israeli society and the military can handle that kind of prolonged fighting. So, while the situation is complex and evolving, there seems to be a strong sense of resilience and capability among Israelis, even in the face of these multiple threats. But of course, public opinion could shift depending on how events unfold in the coming weeks or months.

RFE/RL: Is there support for Netanyahu’s response to October 7? Is there debate in Israeli society, as well as political circles, over Netanyahu’s strategic choices?

Yohanani: First of all, it's important to say that the Israeli public has largely supported significant military operation against Hamas in Gaza. That said, the Israeli discourse around the October 7 events, the ongoing war, and especially toward Prime Minister Netanyahu, is very polarized between right-wing supporters on the one hand and left and center supporters on the other.

So, on the left and the center, there is a high level of distrust and suspicion toward Netanyahu and his government. For instance, Netanyahu's apparent reluctance to pursue a deal for returning the hostages in exchange for ending the fighting in Gaza is seen by large parts of the public, even on the right, as resulting from Netanyahu's dependence on far-right, ultranationalist members of his government who refuse any compromise or ceasefire.

Now for a long time, Netanyahu and his ministers argued that only significant military force would lead Hamas to compromise and release the hostages. Now, with military attention and resources shifting to the north, people are asking, where is this massive military force that was supposed to bring the hostages home?

One question we have asked several times since October 7 in our polls is what should be the main goal in Gaza: Dismantling Hamas or bringing back the hostages? And as time goes on, public opinion is increasingly supporting the return of hostages. In our current survey, 62 percent saw bringing the bringing back the hostages as Israel's main goal, while only 29 percent pointed to dismantling Hamas as the primary objective.

A man and boy inspect destruction in the aftermath of Israeli bombardment on a school in Gaza City on October 2.

RFE/RL: How do ordinary Israelis see the question of the remaining hostages amid the continued protests by the hostages' families?

Yohanani: As I mentioned before, most of the public supports a deal to release the hostages, even if it means ending the war and withdrawing the military forces from Gaza. There's this widespread feeling that we've left the hostages behind, and that's really hitting at our sense of solidarity, which is a deep and fundamental value, I think, in Jewish history in general and in Israel society in particular.

At the same time, the campaign run by the Hostages And Missing Families Forum has become very politicized. Many right-wing supporters see it as weakening Israel. As time goes on, we're seeing more and more harassment of protesters who support bringing the hostages back. There are cases of passersby cursing, even hitting and throwing eggs, at hostages' families. In our latest survey, we asked about the effectiveness of the protests and actions taken by the hostages' families.

Despite most of the public feeling empathetic toward the hostage issue, only less than a third think these actions are actually helping to advance a deal for the hostages' release, while almost 40 percent think they're actually hurting the cause. So, you've got this complex situation where people want the hostages back, but there is disagreement and some backlash about how to make that happen.

RFE/RL: Can you explain the reasons behind the apparent contradiction in views regarding prioritizing a negotiated return of the hostages, or destroying Hamas?

Yohanani: You're right to point out that apparent contradiction. Let me break it down a bit. As I mentioned earlier, a clear majority of the public sees a deal to release the hostages as the main goal. But there is a big gap between political camps on this issue. In the center and left, about 80 percent support the deal for the hostages' release, while the opinions on the right are evenly split. So, for most of the left and center, the fighting in Gaza has run its course. They feel most military objectives have been achieved, and Hamas's military power has been significantly weakened. From their perspective, continuing the fight now only puts the hostages at greater risk.

It's important to know that about half of the right-wing also shares this view of prioritizing the hostages' release, but the other half of those on the far-right thinks dismantling Hamas is more important.

Why? For a couple of reasons.

First, there's a security stance that Hamas must be wiped out and not allowed to recover. There is also a very strong sentiment of revenge, with minimal consideration for the cost, whether it's the lives of the hostages, soldiers, let alone innocent civilians in Gaza. Another significant component openly discussed in religious nationalist circles is the return of Jewish settlement to the Gaza Strip after Israel evacuated Jewish settlements from there in 2005.

An Israeli soldier gestures on top of a tank, near the Israel-Gaza border in August.

RFE/RL: Is there public confidence that Israel will ultimately be able to remove the threat of Hamas and Hezbollah and come out of this conflict with greater prospects for a peaceful and stable near-term future?

Yohanani: Right now, the Israeli public isn't showing a lot of optimism. In our current survey, when we asked people if they're optimistic or pessimistic about Israel's future, we found more pessimists, 48 percent, than optimists, 45 percent.

I also think it's important to note that a peaceful future, as you put it, or peace in general, isn't really a common concept in the current Israeli discourse. I would say the hope of Israelis is that the military actions against Hezbollah and Iran will lead to a situation where Israel's existence isn't in question, and that Israeli military superiority will prevent events like October 7 from happening again. So, it's less about peace in the traditional sense, and more about security and deterrence. People are hoping for a future where Israel can exist without constant threats, rather than expecting a harmonious relationship with its neighbors in the near-term.