Lebanon Cease-Fire Deal Seen As Major Victory For Israel

A cease-fire deal has ended over a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group and political party.

The U.S.-brokered agreement is a major victory for Israel, which has achieved its key war aims, expert say.

Israel has eroded Hezbollah as a military power as well as a political and economic force in Lebanon.

Israel has also succeeded in decoupling Hezbollah's rocket and missile attacks on Israel from the Gaza war. The Iran-backed group began its attacks soon after Israel's air and ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave in October 2023.

The truce will also end the presence of Hezbollah -- a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing -- in southern Lebanon, its stronghold. Israel, too, must withdrawal its ground forces from Lebanon.

"Israel got the deal it wanted," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

"Some are arguing in Israel that it would have been better to continue the war and aim for Hezbollah's full defeat, but the deal Israel achieved is as good as it could have hoped for," he added.

Don't Underestimate Hezbollah

Israel's devastating aerial bombardment of Lebanon decimated Hezbollah's leadership and military arsenal.

But experts say it is too early to write off the group, which has representatives in parliament and retains support among the Shi'ite Muslim community in Lebanon.

"Hezbollah is now a shadow of its former self, but it remains dangerous -- both to Israel and its many opponents in Lebanon," said Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Still, the war has shattered the armed group's narrative that it is Lebanon's protector against Israel, experts say.

United Nations peacekeepers are seen positioned along the Israeli-Lebanese border after the cease-fire deal went into force on November 27.

Hezbollah vowed to continue attacking Israel until it ended its war in Gaza. But the group was forced to drop that demand.

The Israel-Hezbollah conflict killed over 3,600 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and displaced over 1 million people. Large areas of southern Lebanon and parts of the capital, Beirut, lie in ruins.

"Not only was it not able to defend Lebanon, but it dragged it into a conflict for reasons outside of Lebanese interests, and now effectively gave up on this very narrative -- as it decoupled from Gaza," said Horowitz.

"The group will face a legitimacy crisis, and will have to re-invent itself, and it will have to do so with a far less intelligent and politically shrewd leadership at its helm," he added.

Hezbollah has not publicly commented on the cease-fire deal. But Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese lawmaker and member of Hezbollah, insists that the group will stay armed.

"A lot of political groups in Lebanon will oppose this," Assaad Bechara, a political analyst based in Lebanon, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

"Hezbollah will not be present in Lebanon's southern borders and will not face Israel, so their weapons will be aimed [at Lebanon]. Lebanon's transition phase will be very difficult and precarious."

The Iran Angle

Hezbollah has long been the crown jewel within Iran's loose network of regional allies and proxies known as the "axis of resistance." It also served as Iran's first and most formidable line of defense against Israel.

Iran will try to use the respite afforded by the cease-fire to help Hezbollah "rehabilitate and reestablish its rank and file," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Azizi added that Iran and its allies view the cease-fire agreement as a "temporary respite until the next phase of confrontation with Israel."

The United States and France will oversee the implementation of the cease-fire deal.

Under the terms of the cease-fire deal, thousands of Lebanese soldiers will be stationed in southern Lebanon along with a UN peacekeeping force. The United States will provide military support to the Lebanese Army and will ensure the implementation of the deal along with France.

The presence of the West will likely be a major source of concern for Iran, which has long exerted its influence in Lebanon through Hezbollah, experts say.

Tehran will see this as an attempt to bolster Hezbollah's domestic political rivals and "erode the potential for Hezbollah to remain active in Lebanese politics," Azizi said.