Russia Struggles To Find Role For Reconstituted Wagner Group In Africa, Experts Say

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After the Wagner Group reconstituted itself earlier this year, including renaming itself the Africa Corps, Kremlin officials seem unsure of the group’s next steps and its role within Russia’s international strategy, experts speaking on August 20 at a Washington think tank said.

While major restructuring did take place, the newly formed Africa Corps appears to be different in name only. The war in Ukraine has continued to be the number one priority for the group, comprising heavy cooperation with Russian officials. Within Africa, however, both the group’s sovereignty and their exact role in the region come into question, the experts said.

With the one-year anniversary of the plane crash that took the lives of multiple key figures of the then-Wagner Group approaching on August 23, Moscow officials have yet to fill the void that was left by the death of charismatic leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

After the dramatic crash in the Tver region northwest of Moscow -- an accident according to Russian authorities but widely believed to have been an intentional act carried out at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin -- the group splintered, with some elements incorporated into Russia's GRU military intelligence agency, some joining Russia’s National Guard, and others operating as part of a Chechen militia force.

But even with this takeover, political analyst Mark Galeotti argued at the Brookings Institution on August 20 that the elements subsumed into the GRU are “trying to run a blended diplomatic, commercial, and military structure, while they only have the skill set to run the latter.”

With the GRU still getting a foothold on the operations of the previous group, Africa Corps has large shoes to fill if it wishes to continue the Wagner Group’s influence across several African countries.

In Libya, the Central African Republic (C.A.R.), and Mali, the Africa Corps has continued the same operations that were conducted by Wagner Group in years prior. But in the past year, Africa Corps’ leadership has begun to test its power in both Burkina Faso and Niger with expansions of personnel that bring its presence in each country to more than 100, according to Christopher Faulkner, professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

“Africa Corps is still in its elementary phase…. We’re just waiting to see what’s going to transpire and whether or not Moscow will actually invest in real genuine security in those states,” Faulkner said.

With the Wagner’s Group previous reputation for brutality in Ukraine, it is surprising that its counterinsurgency operations have largely been unspectacular in Africa, according to Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

In C.A.R., Wagner’s success was underpinned by the fact that its adversary consisted of relatively weak local groups. Even in a case such as Mozambique, where it was fighting a weak Al-Shabab, its operation was largely considered a failure, Felbab-Brown said.

The goal of the newly formed Africa Corps, considered a terrorist group by Britain and a transnational criminal group by the United States, is to create regime dependency on Russia through the security it provides. It has systemically driven up polarization in the countries where it operates in Africa, provoked violence, economic infiltration, and made use of organized crime groups, Felbab-Brown said.

Africa Corps’ entry into Burkina Faso, which came after Prigozhin’s death, was an attempt to further this influence, while simultaneously the GRU began assessing its role on the continent. As this assessment continues, Africa Corps appears to be preparing to enter the Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.C) as well. According to Felbab-Brown, the Russian government has already signed military deals with the government of the D.R.C.

In addition, the government of the tiny island country of Sao Tome and Principe off Africa’s western coast, is cozying up to Russia. It has been signaling that it is keen on sending forces to a Russian training academy in Chechnya designed specifically for proxy actors. Similarly, Russia has begun canceling and restructuring large portions of debt owed to it by Guinea Bissau.

Russian influence in Guinea Bissau, one of the world’s least developed countries, will put Moscow within arms reach of Guinea Bissau’s massive cocaine trade, where many organized crime groups from both Africa and Latin America convene, according to Felbab-Brown. This would allow Russian intelligence groups to further link themselves to transnational criminal organizations.

While Africa Corps is slowly attempting to further cement itself on the continent, Moscow officials must first learn how to properly use the group to their advantage. In considering the reach the group already has, as well as the speed at which Moscow was able to reconstitute Wagner into Africa Corps, Felbab-Brown said it is easy to understand why “Russia is playing for influence, much as the U.S.A. is trying to counter this influence.”