Russian mortality statistics show that the number of Russian troops killed since the all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 likely exceed 71,000, according to a new report.
The June 27 report, by the independent outlet Important Stories, was the latest effort by journalists and nongovernment groups to come up with a plausible estimate of Russian casualties.
Neither the Kremlin nor the Defense Ministry has released any official casualty figures since September 2022, when the ministry announced that 5,937 troops had been killed since the start of the invasion -- a number that was widely seen as implausible.
Western estimates vary. Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at least 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. The chief of Britain’s armed forces, Admiral Tony Radakin, estimated the Russian tally would reach 500,000 by the end of June.
Using open sources -- including published obituaries, inheritance records, and social media posts -- the Russian outlet Mediazona, along with the BBC Russian Service, have compiled a running tally of casualties. As of June 21, that tally stood at 56,858.
Important Stories, meanwhile, used a methodology similar to what independent researchers used during the COVID-19 pandemic, when government figures appeared to have been artificially deflated.
During the pandemic, experts and statisticians looked at “excess mortality” rates -- essentially, the number of deaths that occurred beyond the average or typical number recorded from the past year -- to compile what they said was a more accurate estimate of COVID deaths.
Using data from Russia’s national statistics agency, Rosstat, Important Stories looked at excess mortality data for men between 20 and 49 years old, the age group of Russian soldiers.
The final estimate in excess of 71,000 was likely an undercount, the outlet said, because many of the troops are former prison inmates, while others are non-Russian migrants whose numbers are not always reflected in official data. Important Stories said its estimate was reviewed by outside demographers.
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For its part, Ukraine has also released little information about its war casualties. In February, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said publicly that 31,000 soldiers had been killed in the two years since the launch of the Russian invasion.
Western officials, however, have said the figure was also likely an undercount.
Russia and Ukraine have handled the issue of replenishing depleted ranks differently. After President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization in September 2022, military recruiters were able to muster an estimated 300,000 Russian men to send to Ukraine.
Troop levels were boosted further by private mercenary companies like Wagner Group, which relied heavily on prison inmates. Wagner was dissolved after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash, and its units were largely absorbed into the Defense Ministry.
Ukraine, however, which has a smaller population than Russia, has struggled to boost its troop numbers. After months of delays, parliament passed sweeping reforms to its recruitment and mobilization regulations, which officials say could bring in another 500,000 troops into the war effort.
But critics say the measures fail the address the question of rotations -- giving units a chance to rest away from frontline fighting -- or of demobilization, when an active-duty soldier can legally leave service.