Russia, China, Iran Intent On 'Fanning Divisive Narratives' In U.S. Election, Intel Officials Say

U.S. intelligence officials warned on October 22 that "foreign actors" from Russia, China, and Iran are intent on fanning narratives to divide Americans ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election and beyond.

The officials briefed reporters in a conference call, saying that influence actors from the three countries have learned from previous U.S. elections and are better prepared to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.

The officials said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence and are highly likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.

The foreign actors "remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans' confidence in the U.S. democratic system," said an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), who briefed reporters on the call on condition of anonymity.

These foreign actors could rely on already deployed disinformation and cyberoperations but might also consider physical threats and violence, the ODNI official added.

"Some foreign actors also have the capacity to stoke protests and take violent actions during [the post-election] period. In particular, Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence," the official said.

The officials on the call said that while Russia, China, and Iran pose the main threats in foreign election influence activities, they have seen no collaboration between them.

They added that while foreign actors might seek to disrupt voting on election day through already established disinformation campaigns, the voting system is secure enough that they could not alter the outcome, and there is no indication that Russia, China, or Iran is plotting significant attacks on election infrastructure.

The three countries have all rejected claims they are seeking to meddle with the U.S. election.

According to the ODNI official, such actors are using social media to influence presidential and congressional races, and some social media posts are likely to be generated by artificial intelligence.

As an example, the ODNI official pointed to a post on X this month generated by what he called Russian influence actors that made a false allegation against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic Party's vice presidential candidate.

Intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content, the ODNI official said. A review by U.S. intelligence agencies showed "several indicators of manipulation" consistent with the actions of Russian actors, the official said.

The content includes baseless accusations about Walz’s time as a teacher. Digital researchers, including analysts at Microsoft, previously linked the video to Russia, but federal authorities had not confirmed the connection.

U.S. intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer that former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, return to the White House over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat.

The intelligence officials said they expected more Russian amplification of protests if Harris wins the election.

"Russia would prefer the former president to win and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris)," the ODNI official said.

With reporting by Reuters and AP