Russian natural gas supplies to Europe via a pipeline traversing Ukraine are set to end on January 1 with the expiration of a contract signed before Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
The pipeline, Russia's oldest gas export route to Europe, was set to shut down at the end of 2024 with the expiration of the contract. Data from Ukraine's gas transit operator on December 31 showed that Russia had not requested any gas flows for January 1.
The operator said Russia had begun reducing gas flows through the pipeline hours ahead of the expiration of the contract signed in December 2019 between Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz.
The pipeline brought gas from Siberia to the Russia town of Sudzha, which is now under the control of Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. It then flowed through Ukraine to Slovakia, where the Soviet-era pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Ukraine repeatedly said it would not sign a new deal to replace the one expiring due to the war. The decision also aligns with efforts by Ukraine and its allies to cut off the Kremlin's source of funding for the war.
SEE ALSO: Zelenskiy Accuses Slovak PM Of Wanting To 'Help Putin' Through Gas PaymentsRussia used to supply a little under half of the European Union's natural gas, but the European Union drastically reduced its dependency on that supply after the outbreak of the war.
Europe has found alternative energy sources, including liquified natural gas (LNG) provided by the United States and Qatar and a piped supply from Norway.
The remaining buyers of the Russian gas traversing Ukraine, including Slovakia and Austria, have arranged for alternative supplies, and analysts foresee minimal market impact from the stoppage.
Austria's Energy Ministry said the natural gas supply for consumers was guaranteed thanks to purchases made for gas flowing through Italy and Germany and the filling of storage.
Slovakia will also not risk a shortage, though it faces an extra 177 million euros ($184 million) in fees for alternative routes, its Economy Ministry said.
European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said EU preparations ahead of the end of the contract had included energy efficiency measures, renewable energy development, and a flexible gas system.
"The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to Central and Eastern Europe via alternative routes. It has been reinforced with significant new LNG import capacities since 2022," Itkonen said.
The consequences for Ukraine including giving up some $800 million a year in fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales to Europe.
Most Russian gas routes to Europe are now shut, including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic, which were blown up in 2022.
Hungary and other countries continue to receive Russian gas from the south via the TurkStream pipeline on the bottom of the Black Sea. Hungary and Slovakia, which maintained close ties with the Kremlin despite the war, had been keen to continue deliveries through the Ukrainian route.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week was outraged when Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and subsequently threatened to cut off Ukraine's emergency power supply during the winter months over Ukraine's decision not to renew the pipeline contract.
He accused Fico of taking "orders" from the Kremlin to harm Kyiv and his own people while Russia attacks Ukrainian power plants and its energy grid.