Before the U.S. presidential election, Iran dismissed the vote as irrelevant.
But former President Donald Trump’s stunning victory on November 5 could have major ramifications for Tehran, experts say.
During his first stint in power, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs and imposed sweeping sanctions against Tehran.
Iran will “have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security…in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a [second] Trump presidency,” said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
'Maximum Pressure 2.0'
From 2017-2021, the Trump administration pursued a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump’s return to the White House could see a policy of “maximum pressure 2.0,” said Sabet, adding that the aim could be “containment and regime weakening.”
Sabet said Trump could try to devise “a kind of policy in perpetuity” on Iran that would be difficult to undo by future U.S. administrations.
Japan's then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe traveled to Tehran in June 2019 with a message from then-President Donald Trump, but Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei refused to reply.
In a sign of what is to come, Brian Hook, who oversaw the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, is expected to lead the president-elect’s transition team at the State Department. U.S. media reported that Hook could be considered for the role of secretary of state.
During the campaign, Trump sent mixed messages on Iran. He threatened to blow the country to “smithereens” but also said he was open to talks with Tehran. Trump also said he wants Iran to be “successful,” although he added that Tehran “can't have a nuclear weapon.”
SEE ALSO: How Will The U.S. Election Impact Washington's Iran Policy?Sabet said Iran has grown more adept at evading U.S. sanctions since Trump’s first term and its nuclear program has become more advanced following the abrogation of the nuclear deal.
But experts say Iran will still feel the bite of tougher U.S. policies. The Iranian economy is in free fall, while the clerical establishment has faced growing domestic unrest and threats from archenemy Israel.
The Israeli Factor
Iran and Israel have traded direct aerial attacks in recent months that have raised fears of an all-out regional war.
The tit-for-tat attacks have come as Israel fights a multifront war against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
SEE ALSO: Israel's Attack On Iran Has Left Tehran Offensively And Defensively WeakerHamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a free hand” to confront Iran.
Trump has a close relationship with Netanyahu, who was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect.
During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reversing decades of U.S. policy. He also moved the U.S. embassy to the contested city.
Sabet said Iran’s “security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S.”
The View From Iran
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on November 7 that Trump's election victory “makes no difference” to Tehran, which has “prioritized developing relations with Islamic and neighboring countries.”
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said Iran had “bitter experiences with various U.S. governments' past policies and approaches.” But he added that Trump’s return to the White House was a chance “to review previous wrong policies.”
Iran's pro-reform President Masud Pezeshkian vowed to engage the West to lift sanctions before taking office in July.
Some conservative Iranian lawmakers and media outlets have done little to hide their disdain for Trump.
Hard-line lawmaker Malek Shariati wrote “death to Trump” on X on November 6 before taking down his post. The conservative Hamshahri newspaper decried “the return of the murderer,” alluding to Trump’s role in Soleimani’s assassination.
Others have urged Iranian decision-makers to consider negotiating with Trump, especially as the reformist Pezeshkian pledged to engage the West when he took office in July.
Tehran-based political analyst Hamid Asefi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that some critics of the clerical establishment hope that Trump will help topple the Islamic republic. But he said that was “wishful thinking” because his Iran policy has never been about regime change.
“Many politicians and analysts in Iran now believe Tehran can easily strike a deal with Trump, as he is a dealmaker,” he added.