Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
Beijing's Headwinds And Tailwinds
It’s another new year and that means it’s time to look ahead into the coming year for the big stories that will shape China’s growing role across Eurasia.
Here’s what’s at stake for 2025.
Finding Perspective: While each new year brings its own set of questions, 2025 will inject an added layer with the return of Donald Trump as U.S. president in January.
Trump has promised to pick up where he left office and raise tariffs on Chinese imports up to 60 percent and keep adding export controls on advanced technology.
A tougher relationship with the United States could have wider ripple effects for Beijing. Unlike back in 2018, when Trump first unleashed tariffs on China, the country’s economy is in a two year slump as it grapples with high debt, deflation, and a real estate crisis.
Further economic pain brought by Washington could potentially push many of Beijing’s global ambitions off course, leading to setbacks in tech, lending, and broader influence.
But Chinese leader Xi Jinping isn’t only facing headwinds as he prepares for Trump 2.0.
Xi now has a strengthened partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin as both leaders chase revisions to international borders and the global and regional security order.
And while Trump could ramp up pressure on Beijing in areas like the South China Sea, Xi is also sensing opportunity from the incoming U.S. president.
Trump has promised to bring changes of his own to the international trading system and Washington’s relationship with its allies and partners.
Xi is banking that Trump’s policies will alienate other countries from the United States, leading typically U.S.-friendly nations to hedge more toward China and a greater acceptance from others of Beijing’s vision for the world order.
Geopolitical Twins: The biggest test could come early as the incoming Trump administration looks to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to end the war, and while doing so will be no simple feat, a push to end the conflict is expected and the future of Ukraine will have wider effects across Eurasia and beyond.
A perceived Russian victory in Ukraine would resonate particularly in China. One clear possibility is that it would embolden Xi to pursue his own ambitions in Asia.
China under Xi has become more nationalistic and more menacing in its behavior toward Taiwan, and Taiwanese officials have warned that a Russian victory would be a signal for Beijing to ramp up pressure on the self-governing island.
Why It Matters: Xi has vowed to unify with Taiwan, and to do so by force, if necessary.
Some prominent U.S. officials have speculated that Xi has told the military to be ready to conquer the island by 2027. Xi himself has mentioned 2050 in public as a potential date, but many analysts also believe that the Chinese leader would aim to take the island and secure his legacy during his tenure. Already 71 years old, that leaves a short window.
President Joe Biden has said several times that Washington is prepared to go to war to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, though Trump has made no such commitment.
What to expect from Trump was the topic of most of my conversations during a recent reporting trip to Taiwan in December.
Many Taiwanese officials have taken some solace in the China hawks that the incoming president appears to be surrounding himself with, but Trump has also inserted a new level of uncertainty and his campaign rhetoric calling for Taiwan to pay for the United States to come to its aid in a crisis appears to have rattled some in Taipei.
Current and former senior Taiwanese officials said that both Taipei and Beijing are already drawing important lessons from the war in Ukraine, but the biggest one could come in 2025 as both countries watch how Kyiv’s own experience with Western support plays out over time.
Three More Stories From Eurasia To Watch In 2025
1. Chinese Firms Take Hold In Central Asia
Chinese companies have been ascendant in Central Asia for many years and that trend looks set to continue in 2025 amid a push from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers and tech giants.
The Details: While mega-projects and investments often get the spotlight when looking at China’s economic profile in the region, its companies are becoming mainstays of everyday life for many Central Asians.
EVs are a large part of this push, especially as Chinese companies eye emerging markets and look to export their overcapacity at home.
A factory from BYD, China’s industry leader, opened this year in Uzbekistan and is looking to ramp up production and expand with a local workforce of employees trained in China.
EVs sales continue to climb globally and within Central Asia, with Chinese brands taking up a growing percentage of the market thanks to their combination of affordability and increasing quality.
On the tech front, Huawei is also rising in the region despite the company coming under pressure from Washington and other Western nations.
Despite some global setbacks, the company remains formidable and has turned its focus outside the West with increasing returns and a renewed focus on emerging tech like AI and semiconductors.
2. The EU's Tightrope 2.0
Brussels is preparing to once again navigate potential tariffs and trade disputes with a Trump-led United States while balancing pressure and opportunities from China.
What You Need To Know: In many ways, it’s deja vu all over again for the EU.
During Trump’s last term, trade tensions with Washington led the bloc to more strongly balance its ties with the United States with China. By the time that Trump left office, Brussels was preparing to push through a historic EU-China investment deal and had lingering questions about its reliance on America.
That trade deal was eventually put on ice and a series of scandals and incidents, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic and culminating with Beijing’s support for Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have severely damaged China’s relationship with Brussels.
But while there is a new line toward Beijing from the EU, it’s a familiar balancing act that could leave Brussels in an even worse spot than before as it looks to balance security concerns with economic necessity.
3. Is This The Year For China In Afghanistan?
It's been a year of major announcements for China’s footprint in Afghanistan, but will 2025 be the year when Beijing’s projects in the country move forward?
What It Means: 2024 saw a series of notable developments. In July, Chinese engineers and the Taliban government officially started work at Mes Aynak, a massive project in Afghanistan to mine the world's second-largest deposit of copper.
The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in November after crossing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and Beijing granted tariff free access to Afghan companies in October.
That momentum looks set to carry over into the new year. But beyond headlines and flashy groundbreaking ceremonies, will newfound Chinese investment be coming into Afghanistan?
That seems uncertain given that Beijing still has lingering security questions about Afghanistan, something that is set to only grow as tensions rise between Kabul and Beijing’s main regional partner in Islamabad.
Across The Supercontinent
Russia’s Car Market: Since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Chinese carmakers have come to dominate the Russian auto market.
According to a new study by the Rhodium Group, Russia has also emerged as China’s most significant automotive export market. Between January and October 2023, China shipped 735,000 vehicles to Russia, accounting for 19 percent of its total passenger vehicle exports.
New Lines In Central Asia: At a December 27 ceremony, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov broke ground on a long-planned railway link between China and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
BRICS Balancing: Kazakhstan officially joins BRICS as a partner state, starting on January 1, 2025.
But Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s office said that the country does not plan to seek full membership in the organization that comprises economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
One Thing To Watch
Xi made his annual New Year’s speech where he said that no one can stop Beijing’s desire to take control of Taiwan.
"The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification," Xi said in a televised speech.
The Chinese leader also said that the country’s economy is his “top priority” and was on course to expand, as he looked to rebut concerns that Trump’s incoming administration will harm Beijing’s prospects in the new year.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.
