Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. To subscribe, click here.
I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.
Harvesting Afghanistan's Mineral Wealth
After 16 years of delays, Chinese engineers and the Taliban government officially started work at Mes Aynak, a massive project in Afghanistan to mine the world's second-largest deposit of copper, my colleagues at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi reported.
Finding Perspective: At the July 24 event, Taliban officials along with Chinese businessmen and diplomats carried out a ribbon-cutting ceremony as work began on the construction of a road to the mining site.
A $3 billion deal signed in 2008 with the previous Afghan government gave the Chinese state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) a 30-year mining concession, but combat between NATO-led troops and Taliban insurgents at the time delayed the project from moving forward.
But with violence waning since the Taliban's 2021 takeover, the cash-strapped Taliban-installed government is eager to exploit the country's vast and lucrative mineral deposits.
Since it seized power, the Taliban has faced the task of undertaking the reconstruction and development of a country devastated by decades of war. At the same time, officials have also found their economy suffocated by Western sanctions and are dealing with international isolation that has cut them off from receiving financial support.
China has been an exception for the Taliban government, with Beijing vowing to pursue deeper cooperation shortly after the group took control of Kabul, and Chinese companies have had an eye on exploiting Afghanistan's extensive resource wealth, signing a series of deals to secure the rights to oil and gas fields and rare-earth metal deposits.
What Comes Next?: Taliban officials said it would likely be at least two years before the first copper was extracted by MCC.
According to a Brookings Institute report, Afghanistan sits on some 2.3 billion metric tons of iron ore and 1.4 million metric tons of rare-earth minerals, and the U.S. Geological Survey has calculated that the country is sitting on $1 trillion in untapped minerals, such as iron, gold, and lithium -- an essential but scarce component in rechargeable batteries and other technologies.
Mes Aynak is one of the most attractive offerings for Chinese firms. The deposit is estimated to contain 11.5 million tons of copper ore, which is vital for electronics components and is surging in value due to its use in growing markets related to electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers.
Why It Matters: The ground breaking is a sign that Chinese resource ventures are moving forward in the country after decades of delays, but security concerns are still paramount.
Further developing the mine and turning a profit from it will require a substantially larger footprint of Chinese workers inside Afghanistan, and there are lingering questions about whether the Taliban can offer protection, especially amid Islamic State-Khorasan’s expanding profile.
Chinese workers have increasingly become a target of attacks in the region by various militant groups.
In neighboring Pakistan, there have been growing attacks on Chinese citizens, including a suicide attack that killed five Chinese engineers in March and a 2021 bombing that killed 13 people, including nine Chinese workers, at a dam project.
In Afghanistan, at least five Chinese nationals were wounded when gunmen stormed a Kabul hotel popular with Beijing businessmen in 2022.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. Kuleba's China Trip
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrapped up a three-day trip to China and Hong Kong, where he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.
Here’s what happened:
The Details: While meeting with Wang in Guangzhou, Kuleba said that Ukraine remains ready to hold talks with Russia provided Moscow proves it's ready to negotiate in “good faith,” but that Kyiv has yet to see such inclination from the Kremlin.
He then met with Guangdong Governor Wang Weizhong and regional officials, where he encouraged them “to consider investment and business prospects and humanitarian needs.”
“There is great demand for construction, industrial recovery, renewable energy, and other areas. So now is a good time to deepen trade ties,” Kuleba said.
Ukraine’s top diplomat then went to Hong Kong and met with Chief Executive John Lee where he asked him “to take measures to prevent Russia from using Hong Kong to circumvent restrictive measures introduced for Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
The next day after Wang’s meeting with Kuleba, the Chinese official met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) talks in Laos where they praised their close ties and discussed implementing “a new security architecture” in Eurasia.
2. Hearts, Minds, And Dirty Air
The massive copper-mining complex in eastern Serbia run by China’s state-owned Zijin Mining Group is facing fresh pushback from nearby residents over pollution concerns, my colleague from RFE/RL’s Balkan Service, Branko Pesic, reports.
What You Need To Know: Zijin took over Bor’s massive copper-mining and smelting complex in 2018 and has grappled with concerns about its environmental impact and the health of nearby residents, including fines and a temporary work-stop order.
But the Chinese mining venture, which has poured billions into the project, has been praised by the Serbian government as a much-needed job creating investment.
Environmental groups have accused Serbian authorities of turning a blind eye to pollution and health concerns stemming from the copper mine, which is boosting its output and expanding operations rapidly as value for the metal rises amid increased demand for the role it plays in the global energy transition away from fossil fuels.
Branko spoke with locals and activists who say that pollution, especially from some carcinogenic heavy metals, is getting worse, despite Zijin’s claims. Read his full report here.
3. A China And Russia Flyby Of Alaska
The United States and Canada scrambled fighter jets on July 24 after two Russian and two Chinese military planes were tracked in international airspace close to Alaska.
What It Means: The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said that it “detected, tracked, and intercepted two Russian Tu-95 and two PRC H-6 military aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).”
The “identification zone” is a stretch of international airspace that acts as a buffer zone where U.S. and Canadian national airspace ends. All aircraft entering the ADIZ require identification for national security reasons.
The presence of the Russian and Chinese planes was not seen as a threat, and intercepts of Russian planes are relatively common in the area.
But China and Russia together represent a newer development. While the two countries have carried out several joint patrols in the past, this incident was the first one that brought together bombers from both countries in the north Pacific area.
Earlier in July, the Chinese and Russian navies conducted their fourth joint sea patrols in the western and northern Pacific.
Across The Supercontinent
Anaklia Ruling: In May, the Georgian government awarded a contract to a consortium of Chinese companies to build a new deep-sea port in Anaklia on the country’s Black Sea coast.
But a previous bid to build the strategic port that was canceled by the government after years of political jostling had spent years waiting for a ruling by an international arbitration court, which ruled on July 29 in Tbilisi’s favor. The move removes a legal obstacle to the project, RFE/RL’s Georgian Service reports.
Election Watch: The U.S. Director of National Intelligence said “foreign actors” are conducting and planning "influence operations" targeting the November elections in the United States using increasingly refined tactics “to better hide their hand.”
Il Ripristino: After pulling her country out of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made her first trip to Beijing, where she met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The trip is seen as part of a reset effort by Rome after criticizing the Chinese infrastructure project. During her visit, Meloni called China an "important interlocutor" in managing global tensions.
Harris’s Foreign Policy: My colleague Margot Buff and I made a short video looking at what U.S. foreign policy might look like under a Kamala Harris presidency, with a particular focus on Russia and China. Watch it here.
One Thing To Watch
The Summer Olympics in Paris kicked off on July 26, and a doping scandal involving Chinese swimmers and the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) is under way in the background.
Three different incidents have been reported over the last several months in which the Chinese have blamed food contamination for positive drug tests. WADA accepted the results of the Chinese investigations and an independent follow-up was carried out. The doping watchdog organization then kept the matter secret until reporting made the incidents public.
Now, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has introduced a bill that could cut future U.S. funding for the global sports anti-doping system unless sweeping reforms are made.
That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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