Tajik troops take part in a military parade in the Darvaz district on their country's border with Afghanistan late last month. The event was personally attended by President Emomali Rahmon.
Majlis Podcast: Tensions Along The Tajik-Afghan Border
As the Taliban tries to solidify its hold over Afghanistan and convince the outside world that it should be recognized as the legitimate government of the country, the one state that has steadfastly expressed its dissatisfaction at the change in government there is neighboring Tajikistan.
Comments from Tajik President Emomali Rahmon about the need for inclusiveness in the Taliban’s government were ill-received in Kabul, where representatives of the militant group suggested the Tajik leader would do better to refrain from commenting on Afghanistan.
Tajikistan has moved extra forces up to the Afghan border and the Tajik president paid a visit to a border area to watch a military parade. The Taliban has brought up extra forces to the border with Tajikistan, including Tajik citizens who are members of extremist groups in Afghanistan and whom the Taliban recently armed with captured U.S. military weapons and equipment.
Russia has called for calm, and others are urging Tajikistan and Afghanistan to lower tensions.
On this week's Majlis podcast, RFE/RL's media-relations manager, Muhammad Tahir, moderates a discussion on the escalation along the Tajik-Afghan border and where it might lead.
This week's guests are: from Newport, Rhode Island, Suzanne Levi-Sanchez, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College and author of the upcoming book Bridging State And Civil Society: Informal Organizations In Tajik/Afghan Badakhshan; from Washington, Melanie Sadozai, a PhD candidate at the National Institute for Oriental Languages and Civilizations (INALCO) in Paris and a visiting scholar at George Washington University, who recently conducted research along the Tajik-Afghan border; from Prague, Salimjon Aioub, the director of RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, known locally as Ozodi; and Bruce Pannier, the author of the Qishloq Ovozi blog.
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (left) and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev (file photo)
For The Turkmen And Uzbek Leaders, A Meeting Of Minds On Afghanistan
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov just visited Uzbekistan for talks with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev and, even though the two leaders have met several times recently, it was important for them -- and only them -- to sit down to discuss the number one topic in the region these days: Afghanistan.
That is because Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have a similar policy toward their southern neighbor, one focused on the economic potential of trade routes through Afghanistan.
Afghanistan In Turmoil: Full Coverage On Gandhara
Read RFE/RL's Gandhara website for complete coverage of developments in Afghanistan. Gandhara is the go-to source for English-language reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Azadi and its network of journalists, and by RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal, which offers extensive coverage of Pakistan's remote tribal regions.
Both presidents made clear at their October 5 meeting that their countries would continue to provide help "to the people of Afghanistan."
"Sustainable development" was a key comment since there are projects that could greatly benefit Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan but require stability in Afghanistan and the cooperation of whoever is in charge of that country.
For Turkmenistan the project is the 1,800-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural-gas pipeline that aims to annually export some 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Turkmen gas.
It is a project that seemed possible the last time the Taliban controlled most of Afghanistan in the late 1990s but has been completely unfeasible since due to insecurity in Afghanistan.
The policy Turkmenistan is pursuing now toward the Taliban is the policy of Turkmenistan's first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, who stayed out of Afghan politics and was willing to deal with anyone in power there to advance Turkmenistan's economic interests.
Pakistan wants TAPI to be built and has more influence over the Taliban than any other country.
With natural-gas prices currently at obscenely high record levels of well over $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters, the government in cash-strapped Turkmenistan must be waiting eagerly for a sign the TAPI project is moving forward.
There remains a challenge in finding investors and financing for the project. Plus, India's role might be in question, again, as it has been several times before over the years, though Pakistan would almost surely take India's share of the gas. (Under the current breakdown, Afghanistan would get 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually; Pakistan 14 bcm; and India 14 bcm).
But Turkmenistan claims it has constructed its segment of the pipeline leading from Turkmen gas fields to the Afghan border, though there have been doubts of this claim before.
But recently it seems there has been work done on Turkmenistan's section of TAPI and at least $219 million spent on pipeline segments purchased from Russia's Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant in 2019.
Uzbek President Mirziyoev's government seems to be using the Niyazov model in its engagement with the Taliban.
In Uzbekistan's case, as previously noted, a lot of money has already gone into infrastructure projects in the last 15 years that link Uzbekistan to Afghanistan.
Several projects are unfinished or not yet started, but two are of significant value to Uzbekistan -- a railway and a new power transmission line.
Uzbekistan is connected by rail to the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif.
China has already shipped goods to Afghanistan using this route and NATO used the Uzbek railway link for transporting material between Europe and Afghanistan.
President Mirziyoev has met twice with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan since July and both times construction of a railway line from Mazar-e Sharif through Kabul to Peshawar was high on the agenda.
Such a link would give Uzbekistan, and other countries in Asia and Europe, a connection to Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea.
That should boost shipments of cargo in both directions, giving Uzbekistan extra revenue from transit fees and justifying the expense of the huge Termez Cargo Center that Uzbekistan built near the Afghan border in 2018.
Those are projects for the future. But for now, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan already export electricity to Afghanistan via power transmission lines built after 2001, and, as was expected, the Taliban government is short of cash and unable to pay for electricity imports.
According to the Asian Development Bank, 73 percent of Afghanistan's electricity is imported. Of that, Uzbekistan supplies 57 percent, Iran 22 percent, Turkmenistan 17 percent, and Tajikistan 4 percent.
There are various figures for how much money Afghanistan has been spending on electricity imports, but it appears to have been around $300 million per year.
So Turkmenistan has been receiving some $51 million and Uzbekistan about $171 million for electricity exports to Afghanistan.
And Uzbekistan is constructing a 260-kilometer section of a 500-kilovolt power line from Surkhon in Uzbekistan to Pul-e Khumri, north of Kabul, that would boost Uzbek electricity exports to Afghanistan by some 70 percent.
Performers at the launch ceremony in Serhetabat, Turkmenistan, of construction work on the Afghan section of the TAPI natural-gas pipeline in February 2018.
Turkmenistan's electricity goes to northwestern Afghanistan, but Uzbekistan's electricity powers Kabul.
When several power stations in Uzbekistan went off line in early January, it left Kabul in darkness and when the Taliban destroyed two power pylons on the transmission line in September 2019, it caused major power shortages in the Afghan capital.
So Afghanistan needs Uzbek electricity.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Afghanistan's state power company has no more than $40 million to pay for energy imports and that could lead to its Central Asian neighbors suspending electricity supplies to Afghanistan.
During Berdymukhammedov's visit to Uzbekistan, officials from both countries said there were no plans to discontinue electricity exports to Afghanistan.
The Turkmen and Uzbek governments have a history of keeping a tight rein on religion in their own countries. But the lure of pipeline, power line, and railway connections to and through Afghanistan seems to have convinced the governments in both countries that the cost of overlooking the Taliban's religious extremism is worth the potential gain in trade both countries could see if these big projects are realized.
In Uzbekistan's case, this was emphasized at the October 7 visit of Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov to Kabul where he and Taliban officials discussed construction of the Surhon-Pul-e Khumri power line and the Mazar-e Sharif-Kabul Peshawar railway line.
One more thing distinguishes Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from their Central Asian neighbors.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are the only two Central Asian countries that do not border Russia or China. Both have long looked to the south for connectivity to the wider world.
They might not like the Taliban -- they wouldn't even say the word "Taliban," only referencing the "government in Afghanistan" -- but tolerating and engaging with the Afghan group could help both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan see huge profits.
Berdymukhammedov and Mirziyoev did not say this, but it likely has not escaped their notice.
Qishloq Ovozi is a blog by RFE/RL Central Asia specialist Bruce Pannier that aims to look at the events that are shaping Central Asia and its respective countries, connect the dots to shed light on why those processes are occurring, and identify the agents of change.
The name means "Village Voice" in Uzbek. But don't be fooled, Qishloq Ovozi is about all of Central Asia.
