Tajikistan: Opposition Disorganized As Presidential Election Nears

By Massoumeh Torfeh http://gdb.rferl.org/1B4EA76C-6BDD-4728-B9D3-2E3D66F11FE0_w203.jpg Mohiedin Kabiri, the head of the Islamic Renaissance Party, on August 13 (RFE/RL) Tajikistan's three major opposition parties are in disarray less than three months before the country's presidential elections. The Islamic Renaissance Party, the Social-Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan have postponed naming their presidential candidates until their conventions in September.

DUSHANBE, August 24, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- With a presidential election scheduled for November in Tajikistan, the young, forward-thinking leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party (HNIT), Mohiedin Kabiri, is in a desperate state following the death of the charismatic leader of the party, Said Abdullo Nuri.

Nuri -- who died on August 9 after "a serious illness" -- was the backbone of opposition leadership in Tajikistan. Kabiri now has the daunting task of leading the party in Nuri's shadow. He also needs to bring energy and a new strategy for his party in the presidential election, and must assert his authority to bring unity to the some 26,000 members of the HNIT.

Not Enthused About Running

In an exclusive interview with RFE/RL's Tajik Service, the 42-year-old Kabiri spoke of his concerns about what he describes as outside attempts to break up the HNIT. He claims the party is fully united behind his leadership but he is hesitant when asked if he will be a candidate in the presidential election, indicating that he will "first present his case to the party convention in September."

"If the party convention insists and says it has no alternative, I will have my conditions [for becoming a candidate]," he said. "But I'm hopeful that this will not be the case and they will accept my argument, and perhaps have a different view on the selection of a candidate."

But if Kabiri does not want to be HNIT's candidate in the election, who might be possible candidates? The veteran politician Said Ibrahim Nazar, one of the founders of the Islamic Renaissance Party, seems to be the favorite. Another possible candidate is the hard-line Mohammad Ali Haiit, who has remained one of the top officials in the party since 1990. There is also uncertainty about the party's official policy, and Kabiri seems to want to wait before deciding on a strategy.

"In the present circumstances, the easiest and simplest choice, in my view, is to influence the thinking of those in power," he said. "If they are not ready to accept others in power, this could have severe repercussions...if they intend, for example, to stay in power by any means, even by resorting to violence, this is not very helpful. So the best way for keeping peace in society and having influence is to influence those in power."

Party Beset With Problems

An even bigger task is awaiting the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (HDT) in the absence of its influential leader, Mahmadruzi Iskandarov, who is serving a 23-year prison term. The acting leader of the party, Rahmatullo Valliev, says he will announce his candidacy. But there are at least four other contenders and the final choice will be made by party members at their mid-September convention. Valliev, who is in his early 50s, said the party's entire managing board may be changed.

The HDT -- which was one of the most influential in the early 1990s -- still suffers from a split in its ranks in 1994. This has led to a chronic leadership crisis that heated up some six months ago when part of its membership -- allegedly encouraged by the ruling People's Democratic Party --- reportedly became pro-government under the name Vatan.

With that lost support it will be almost impossible for Valliev -- or any other HDT candidate -- to collect the 160,000 signatures needed to register as a candidate. Even though the HDT has only 4,500 members -- according to the best estimates -- Valliev told RFE/RL in an interview that he is convinced they will get enough signatures to register a candidate.

"I think once the party selects a candidate then we will work with our provincial branches to ensure they collect the necessary number of signatures," he said. "So today we are working hard preparing for the elections. Some of our members are in Russia and we have requested the Central Electoral Commission to create the necessary procedure for collecting the signatures of those in Russia...to give them the necessary forms to fill in and so on."

Possible Candidate Recovering

Many observers of the Tajik presidential election are hopeful that the outspoken leader of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Rahmatullo Zoirov, will pose a serious challenge -- if only verbal -- to President Rakhmonov. However, even that hope seemed dashed last month when Zoirov suffered a stroke that affected his speech.

RFE/RL's Tajik Service visited Zoirov at his home on August 22. He has recently returned from treatment in Switzerland and he seemed very well recovered and spoke well. He said he will indeed put forward his name as a presidential candidate. He reiterated his stance that Rakhmonov has been ruling unconstitutionally since 1999. Zoirov said if Rakhmonov is a candidate he will have to withdraw his candidacy from what, in his view, will be an illegal presidential election.

"I am adamant that I was right from the start," he said. "I spoke to several legal experts of high caliber in Russia; they studied the details of the [Tajik] Constitution and said collectively that according to the constitutional amendment in 2003, Imomali Rakhmonov does not have the legal right to put his name forward as a candidate."

President Rakhmonov, meanwhile, is benefiting from the might of his political apparatus and his total control of the media and has found grounds to jail any other possible contender, such as his ex-bodyguard, General Ghaffor Mirzoiev, or former Interior Minister Yaqub Salimov. Rakhmonov continues to weaken the chances of opposition candidates by all means possible while appearing to promote what he describes as democratic elections.