Chinese leader Xi Jinping's upcoming trip to France, Serbia, and Hungary will focus on China's economic ties to Europe and escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels.
But China's position on Russia's war in Ukraine will also take center stage, especially during Xi's visit to France, two EU officials told RFE/RL.
High on the agenda is China's participation in a Kyiv-backed international conference set for mid-June in Switzerland that will discuss the prospects for ending the war in Ukraine.
Russia has said it will not participate. But Kyiv is actively pushing for Beijing, a key partner of Moscow, to attend.
Xi's trip to Europe comes as China aims to carve out a larger diplomatic role around the war in Ukraine while still preserving its strong ties with Moscow.
The EU officials said Brussels is increasingly skeptical about the role Beijing can play in any future peace process. But the issue will be raised when Xi meets with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris on May 6.
"Beijing's conditions are that it won't be a full-blown summit, so they could then likely send some sort of envoy instead of a top level official, and they want ‘other' peace plans on the table alongside [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskiy's," one of the EU officials told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity in order to discuss matters openly.
"Brussels thinks that Beijing is paving the way for Moscow's participation in similar meetings in the future," the official added.
Xi's five-day European tour beginning on May 5 comes as Kyiv faces setbacks on the battlefield and lingering questions over future levels of Western military support.
Since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has maintained that it is neutral in the conflict but also continued to deepen its political and economic ties with Russia.
European officials have pressed Beijing to use its influence to moderate Russia's behavior and help bring it to the negotiating table. But those efforts have not yielded any breakthroughs.
"Many people would like to see China play a constructive role, but I think now that we're in the third year of the war, this idea is wearing a bit thin," said Theresa Fallon, director of the Brussels-based Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies.
In February 2023, Beijing unveiled its own outline for a potential peace process in Ukraine. But the document has been criticized by Western officials for being too accommodating to Moscow.
"Kyiv still believes that getting China to the table for the peace summit would be beneficial for Ukraine, but there are risks to Chinese involvement as well," said Yurii Poita of the Kyiv-based Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies. "Beijing could also hamper the process and use its presence to push Russia's narratives."
While there is no direct evidence that China has sold arms to Russia, it does sell dual-use goods such as machines, civilian drones, semiconductors, and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine.
During a trip to Beijing in April, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China was "overwhelmingly the No. 1 supplier" for Russia's military industry and that this support has had a "material effect" on the battlefield.
French officials have said Macron intends to press the issue of Chinese dual-use goods when he meets with Xi. An EU official told RFE/RL that Macron plans to be "firmer" with Xi than in the past and the atmosphere is unlikely to be "super-friendly."
Chinese messaging around Ukraine is expected to be different when Xi travels to Belgrade and Budapest.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has forged close relations with China and Russia while angering Brussels for refusing to join EU sanctions against Russia or allowing, like other NATO countries, arms shipments to Ukraine.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic also has strong ties with Beijing and Moscow and will welcome Xi on May 7, the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of China's Embassy in Belgrade. A large Chinese cultural center has been built at the former site of the embassy, and Xi is expected to visit a memorial there in honor of Chinese diplomats killed during the accidental strike.
"Xi will be underscoring that there are different interpretations within Europe regarding the war in Ukraine and the economic relationship with China," said Janka Oertel, director of European Council on Foreign Affairs' Asia program. "This will dilute the tough signaling that is to be expected in Paris."
