Vladimir Putin, 71, has been president or prime minister of Russia since August 1999, clamping down ever harder on dissent while building up a personalized authoritarian system that has proven durable through political upheaval, economic crises, wars, and the global COVID-19 pandemic.
In January, when Putin was preparing to run for a fifth presidential term in a strictly managed election, a BBC correspondent asked a pensioner in the central Russian town of Rzhev if there was anyone who could replace Putin.
"Not right now," the woman responded, echoing a narrative that has been carefully cultivated by the Kremlin throughout Putin's rule. "Maybe Putin will find someone later. But I think he'll be in power for a long time to come."
Despite the difficulty of thinking "beyond Putin," Systema -- RFE/RL's Russian investigative unit -- posed this question to more than 150 leading Russia experts, including political scientists, sociologists, and journalists from Russia, the United States, and Europe. Over 40 agreed to respond and were asked what the most likely scenarios for a transition away from Putin are and who might end up succeeding him.
Many respondents stressed such speculation really belongs to the realm of fantasy, adding that choosing a successor with any accuracy is impossible. Several added that there are no indications Putin himself has any clear ideas on these matters or is grooming an heir.
"The weakening and crisis of the Putin regime will correspond with and be a result of Putin's natural aging," Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko said.
'Til Death Us Do Part
The majority of the experts said that the most likely scenario for a change of power in Russia would be Putin's death. In fact, almost all respondents listed this among the most probable paths for Russia, while eight listed it as the only possible route.
Meanwhile, 23 said a coup or intra-elite uprising could trigger a change of power. Several of them named only this possible scenario.
Only five respondents listed a "civil war" or "revolution" as a possibility for Russia, slightly fewer than the number who said the end of Putin's Russia could be triggered by a Russian military defeat. One expert supposed the end could be triggered by a major catastrophe such as a nuclear power plant disaster or a global economic meltdown. Another noted that Putin could be shunted aside in a "soft coup" in the event of a serious illness.
None of the respondents mentioned the end of Putin's reign through a competitive election as a possibility for Russia. But journalist Andrei Zakharov commented, "Russia will someday be free."
The Usual Suspects
The experts were also asked to name possible successors to Putin in two different transition scenarios: first, one in which Putin himself participates in the selection process -- such as by appointing a favored successor, as President Boris Yeltsin did with Putin -- and second, one in which Putin has died or is otherwise not a participant.
In the first scenario, 19 experts mentioned Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, while 18 mentioned State Council Secretary and former Putin bodyguard Aleksei Dyumin. Others named repeatedly were Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, former President Dmitry Medvedev, and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
Two experts said Putin might name his youngest daughter from his marriage to Lyudmila Putina, Katerina Tikhonova, while one mentioned his eldest daughter, Maria Vorontsova.
In the second scenario, in which Putin is not involved in the selection process, a majority of respondents also named Mishustin, with Sobyanin polling second. Seven respondents mentioned presidential aide and former Federal Security Service and Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev. Five mentioned Patrushev's son, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev.
In all, the experts mentioned 34 possible successors, ranging in age from 75-year-old Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina Matviyenko to the 37-year-old Tikhonova. One expert named Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, despite persistent reports of serious health problems.
Another expert mentioned exiled dissident businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, 61, as a dark-horse possibility to succeed Putin. Khodorkovsky was the only genuine opposition figure named by any of the respondents.
Aleksei Navalny, Putin's most prominent opponent over the last decade, died suddenly in an Arctic prison in February after three years behind bars.
Several experts noted that predicting a possible successor is impossible because much depends on the circumstances of the transition.
"In the event of a sudden change, whoever occupies the post of prime minister has the strongest chances of succeeding," one analyst, who asked that his name not be used, wrote. "Other than that, it is pure guesswork, and it could be someone whose name we would not even think to mention.
"It is simply unknowable in advance," he added, mentioning that few people would have named Nikita Khrushchev as Soviet dictator Josef Stalin's heir.
Russian political analyst Fyodor Krasheninnikov emphasized the opacity of Putin's governing system: "We don't even know who is actually in Putin's closest circle."
Sergei Sanovich, a Hoover fellow at Stanford University, said he thinks it likely that a political transition in Russia will not happen until 2036, the end of Putin's potential sixth and, under current legislation, last term as president.
"If it happened now, I'd put my money on the younger Patrushev," he commented. "But I don't think it will happen earlier than 2036, at which point Dmitry Patrushev will be about 60. That means it would be someone younger."
