Negotiations aimed at ending Israel’s devastating war in the Gaza Strip were faltering even before the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the EU- and U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
But Haniyeh’s assassination in a suspected Israeli strike in Iran on July 31 makes a cease-fire deal, or even the continuation of talks, even less likely.
The 62-year-old had played a key role in internationally brokered talks on reaching a permanent cease-fire in the Palestinian enclave and securing the release of scores of Israeli hostages. He was also considered a relative moderate within the organization.
“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?" asked Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on July 31. The Arab Gulf state, along with Egypt, has brokered the monthslong talks.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry expressed a similar sentiment, stating that the killing undermined the peace talks.
Hamas's military wing said Haniyeh’s assassination in a Tehran suburb was a “watershed” that would “take the war to new levels.”
Despite its threats, Hamas may not have the military capacity to retaliate. It is already reeling from Israel’s brutal 10-month war in Gaza that has killed nearly 40,000 people, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health officials in the territory.
Even then, the group is unlikely to be eager to engage in further talks now. Beyond the prospect of a boycott, there are also practical considerations.
Haniyeh was a highly experienced figure with global recognition who was used to managing relations with key allies across the Middle East and beyond. Some of the last photos of him show him embracing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Based in Qatar, he was able to travel and turn up at important meetings.
His death leaves a significant void, and it is unclear who will succeed him.
Yehya Al-Sinwar is the head of Hamas’s armed wing and widely seen as the mastermind of the group’s October 7 attack that killed some 1,200 Israelis. Hundreds of others were taken hostage. He is currently believed to be hiding in Gaza.
Another senior figure, Zaher Jabarin, heads the group in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is partly run by the Palestinian Authority. He is also in hiding.
Israel has vowed to wipe out the Hamas leadership, and both men are seen as prime targets.
A new leader could emerge from Hamas’s political office in Qatar, but that is likely to take time and it is not clear what position they would take.
Haniyeh had been cast by some as a pragmatist in contrast to more hard-line elements of Hamas based in Gaza. But he was also a U.S.-designated terrorist and voiced support for the October 7 attacks.
Even if Hamas decides to keep talking, it is unclear who would have the capacity and authority to represent the group in the high-stakes negotiations.
Iranian state TV said Haniyeh’s killing would delay further talks by “several months.”
It has also been suggested by many observers that the assassination of Haniyeh heightens the risk of a regional conflict. Khamenei quickly blamed Israel and promised that Iran would avenge Haniyeh’s death, adding credence to those concerns.
A major escalation would likely make the prospect of Israel-Hamas talks taking place, let alone making progress, even more distant.
But much will depend on the actions of Iran and its network of militant groups and proxies in the region. In weighing up their response, Tehran and its allies are likely to tread a fine line between saving face and provoking a damaging Israeli reprisal.
If Iran can avoid a serious escalation, that would remove one barrier to restarting talks between Israel and Hamas in the future.
But that is considered a big “if.”
Iran has also blamed the United States for Haniyeh’s killing because of Washington’s military, economic, and diplomatic support for Israel.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has denied that Washington had any involvement in or prior knowledge of an attack.
But he was notably cautious about commenting on where Haniyeh’s assassination leaves the prospects for a truce in Gaza, merely saying on July 31 that “the imperative of getting a cease-fire, the importance that that has for everyone, remains."
