TBILISI -- The United States has been applying heavy pressure on Georgia, its erstwhile close ally, as the Caucasus state has continued to escalate its anti-Western and authoritarian rhetoric.
The United States imposed financial sanctions on two Georgian security officials and visa restrictions on more than 60 other Georgians, including (so far unnamed) senior government officials, the U.S. State Department announced on September 16.
The U.S. government has also prepared a separate package of financial sanctions against the founder and still de facto leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, Voice of America's Georgian Service reported days later.
Then, White House officials refused to meet the Georgian delegation to the United Nations General Assembly. They even rescinded an invitation to Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to a September 25 reception hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden.
'Western Foothold' In The Caucasus
All this represents a new low point in relations between the United States and what until recently was probably its most loyal and favored ally in the post-Soviet space.
And it is all happening ahead of crucial parliamentary elections on October 26 in which it appears that Western capitals are banking on Georgian Dream losing power. The only polls that have been published are partisan, showing healthy victories for either Georgian Dream or the opposition, making the real state of play impossible to know.
Analysts say that the harsh response by the United States has highlighted a blunt truth: that without a democratic government and a fully pro-Western foreign policy orientation, Washington has little reason to invest in this small, poor country in a remote corner of Eurasia.
Georgia "is a small country and it doesn't have oil, gas, or anything like our neighbors," Kornely Kakachia, the head of the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics, told RFE/RL.
Instead, its value to the United States has traditionally lay in its role as a vanguard for advancing U.S. influence in the post-Soviet world, as a "Western foothold in the Caucasus and beyond," he said.
That relationship was developed in the 2000s, when the strongly pro-Western, free-market agenda of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's Rose Revolution dovetailed neatly with the "Freedom Agenda" of then-U.S. President George W. Bush. Bush visited Tbilisi in 2005 and called Georgia a "beacon of democracy."
"Both a pro-Western foreign policy and solid democratic credentials are important," said Bob Hamilton, formerly chief of the Office of Defense Cooperation at the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi, and currently the head of Eurasia research for the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank.
"If a country has just one, like [Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinian's Armenia before the break with Russia, it'll get a little of our interest -- but only a little. This is why the [2003] Rose Revolution got such attention from D.C., because it promised both."
But now Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012 and has won three consecutive elections, appears to be trying to move toward a more multivector foreign policy rather than one oriented solely to the West.
As a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Georgian Dream "saw more opportunity to cooperate with regional states -- most of them are authoritarian -- and they see less and less convincing arguments why they had to pursue the Western foreign policy," Kakachia said.
Authoritarian Drift
Even as the Ukraine war opened a unique window in which Georgia was able to apply for -- and eventually be granted -- European Union candidacy, Georgian Dream appeared to think that it could do so by virtue of its geopolitical importance rather than its democratic credentials. Internationally, it played up its role in new East-West energy and transport links, while insisting that it would enter the EU "with dignity."
"[Georgian Dream] are kind of mimicking Azerbaijan and Turkey," Kakachia said. "But Turkey can do that because it's a middle power, it's a bigger country, it's a member of NATO. It can really do that kind of foreign policy. But Georgia is dependent on Western help and assistance and [the attempt at a multivector foreign policy] seems like a bit of an exaggeration of Georgia's importance."
WATCH: The U.S. ambassador to Georgia, Robin Dunnigan, says Washington is happy "to work with any democratically elected government" in Georgia:
This has been borne out in the harsh U.S. response to Georgia's anti-Western and authoritarian drift. It has passed laws restricting the activity of NGOs and media who receive foreign funding, and against what it calls "LGBT propaganda." It has promised to ban all the major opposition parties if it wins.
In justifying the sanctions and social snubs against Georgian officials, the United States has consistently cited Georgian Dream's antidemocratic behavior.
Critics of the U.S. measures, however, say that Georgia's neighbors, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, have far more authoritarian systems and yet have not been punished in the same way.
Millions Of Dollars In Aid
Kobakhidze complained that over 150 other world leaders were invited to Biden's reception, including "dozens of leaders of authoritarian states." The guest list for the event was not made public, but at least one regional leader with a worse human rights record -- Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- was invited. (He publicly declined the invitation, citing U.S. support for Israel in its war in Gaza.)
That Georgia is treated more harshly can be explained by the greater influence the United States has in Georgia after spending hundreds of millions of dollars annually in aid for two decades, the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Hamilton said.
"Due to the levels of aid Georgia received from the U.S., we had leverage there we don't have with Turkey and Azerbaijan. So, we are using it, albeit belatedly," Hamilton said.
In addition, "Georgia has far less economic or security importance to the U.S., meaning its democratic credentials are a greater part of its value to us," he said.
Georgian Dream leaders have complained that the United States is trying to put its thumb on the scales ahead of the October 26 elections. Washington is "fueling the opposition discourse" and is "interfering" in Georgia's internal politics, the speaker of parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, said following the rescinding of Kobakhidze's invitation.
The United States insists that it is not playing favorites.
"We would like nothing more than to work with any democratically elected government in this country that reflects what the people of Georgia have overwhelmingly said they want," the U.S. ambassador to Georgia, Robin Dunnigan, told RFE/RL's Georgian Service on October 3.
The United States' hardball approach to Georgian Dream could backfire, Kakachia says.
"I think there's too much hope that if regime change happens this will solve all the problems that we have in Georgian politics," he said.
"You cannot really afford to support one political camp in this battle, because, at the end of the day, it's in the U.S.'s interest to have the support of Georgia as a country and the entire society -- this is what the U.S. was managing for the last 30 years," he said.
"That's why it's very important to carefully manage this situation."
