ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- A top ally of the eldest daughter of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev, Komiljon Allamjonov looked like a man under pressure this summer.
At a briefing of national media chiefs and journalists in July he condemned "rising fakes and disinformation" in the Uzbek information space.
Allamjonov -- who had been absent from the public eye for weeks before that appearance -- didn't go into specifics, but it was during a period when rumors about his own whereabouts and political future were intensifying.
Online speculation included claims he had fled the country and was under criminal investigation.
As it turned out, Allamjonov would continue working in his post as head of the presidential administration's Information Policy Department until the end of September.
When he finally announced his resignation, citing his desire to work in the private sector, he did so in a video with Saida Mirziyoeva, the top aide in her father President Shavkat Mirziyoev's administration.
And Mirziyoeva offered a very clear show of support for her beleaguered mentor.
The president's eldest daughter thanked him for how he "handled the instructions of our president responsibly, implemented projects of major importance for the state and society, [and] showed great results improving the press and education systems."
Less than a month later, Allamjonov was the apparent target of what is being investigated by Uzbek officials as an assassination attempt.
Both the 40-year-old and the driver of the Range Rover he was traveling in survived the October 26 incident that police say saw the car hit by several bullets.
At least four suspects have been detained in connection with the shooting.
It is hardly common for cars to get shot up in Uzbekistan's capital, Tashkent, let alone a car carrying a well-known politician. And that means that people are asking a lot of questions about who was behind this and what it means for Mirziyoev's family-dominated regime.
Deep-State Scenarios
A few disclaimers.
First, this is Uzbekistan we are talking about, so while you might hear things, you nearly always know nothing for certain.
Second, whatever the official investigation into the event determines publicly, there might be much more to it -- or much less to it -- than that.
And third, months and years later, you will still probably know nothing for certain.
With that out of the way, it is hardly surprising that Allamjonov has his haters.
Strongly associated with the softer policies toward journalists and bloggers in the early years of Mirziyoev's reign, Allamjonov's dovish self-portrayal put him at odds with security types that saw any sort of opening from the hard-line rule of late leader Islam Karimov as an unnecessary risk.
With the post-2016 "thaw" for media turning cold again in the last few years, his more enduring association has been with Mirziyoeva herself.
Prior to his exit from the presidential administration this fall, Allamjonov had accompanied Mirziyoeva at every stop of her political journey, usually in the senior role.
That changed in 2023, when Mirziyoeva was made top aide to the president, a position similar in rank to the chief-of-staff post that had just been disbanded, and the most powerful officeholder inside the presidential administration other than her father.
Now Mirziyoeva was Allamjonov's boss, and despite the 67-year-old Mirziyoev showing no signs of slowing down, her promotion inevitably prompted talk that she was being groomed for the top office. Still, the pair continued to be seen as a political partnership.
And that gave Allamjonov a lot of mic time and policy heft, even as his growing business interests became the focus of multiple media investigations and allegations of conflicts of interest.
But being the close ally of a Mirziyoev is not the same as being married to one.
Such is the status enjoyed by Otabek Umarov, the hulking husband of Mirzyioeva's younger sister, Shahnoza.
Since becoming deputy head of Mirziyoev's presidential security service in 2016, Umarov has steadily cultivated a heroic image on social media, most notably as a prominent patron of sports. His Instagram account has nearly 38 million followers and features regular photos with foreign celebrities.
At the same time, RFE/RL investigations indicate that Umarov, 40, has accumulated enormous wealth through his family ties and is also widely seen as a behind-the-scenes power broker among the country's political and economic elites.
And for months, multiple high-level sources of RFE/RL's Uzbek Service have described the relationship between Umarov and Allamjonov as being poisonous.
According to one source, their conflict escalated after Umarov suspected Allamjonov of trying to block the work of a secretive, unofficial "task force," which Umarov had allegedly set up to target businessmen and politicians in mob-style shakedowns.
The source, who spoke to RFE/RL in July, said Allamjonov's intervention triggered an investigation that briefly interrupted the task force's work.
That will sound like some deep-state machinations.
As will the contentions by other sources of RFE/RL that allies of Umarov are now in control of an investigation into the shoot up of Allamjonov's car.
The most popular versions of events doing the rounds on Uzbek Telegram channels, meanwhile, involve the idea that Allamjonov set up a fake assassination attempt on himself in order to embarrass his rivals.
On October 27, the Prosecutor-General's Office cited a rise of "unconfirmed and unfounded" commentary related to the attack and warned of "criminal responsibility for spreading false, untrue, and panic-inducing material among the population," but that has barely slowed the rumor mill.
Family Affairs
There is as yet no hard, publicly available evidence of any sort linking Umarov or any other member of the Uzbek government to the shooting.
But whatever the truth, from a regime perspective, the impression is not good.
The shooting happened the day before pro-forma local and parliamentary elections that ushered the same five parties back into the government-loyal legislature.
And while that would suggest business as usual, the growing speculation surrounding key figures in the Mirziyoev regime suggests precisely the opposite.
One of the most popular videos on RFE/RL's Uzbek Service's social media platforms in recent times was one from the October 27 vote comparing the Mirziyoev family's election-day photo at those elections with those from previous votes.
The most notable absentee this time around?
Mirziyoev himself, who was not pictured even as Mirziyoeva and Umarov managed to pose on either side of first lady Ziroatxon Xoshimova in the footage shared by the presidential administration.
In comments to RFE/RL's Uzbek Service, U.K.-based Uzbekistan-watcher Alisher Ilkhamov suggested the 67-year-old head of state was signaling his displeasure with certain family members, while Xoshimova played a "unifying role."
In a country where presidential relatives have a history of getting above their station, Mirziyoev will know better than most the importance of keeping the ruling family in line.
Prior to taking on the top job after Karimov died in 2016, he was prime minister for more than a decade at a time when members of Karimov's immediate and less immediate family were running rampant.
In some ways, the immaculately presented and well-spoken Saida Mirziyoeva, 39, has been cultivated as a kind of antidote to Gulnara Karimova, Karimov's eldest daughter, whose wild behavior and allegedly vast appetite for corruption caused problems at home and abroad.
That period culminated in Karimova sensationally falling under house arrest while her father was still alive, after she took to Twitter to accuse her mother and sister of various misdeeds.
Karimova, sometimes known by her stage name Googoosha, is still a figure of international criminal investigations as she serves out a prison sentence in her homeland.
As such, she is something of a lingering pain for the Mirziyoev regime.
But for the moment, Uzbekistan's second president has bigger and more immediate headaches.
