Middle East
- By Mike Eckel and
- Riin Aljas
The Horrors Of Syria's 'Human Slaughterhouse' Spill Into Public View
Some shuffled out of the Syrian prison’s gray concrete corridors like zombies rising from a graveyard. Some sobbed as they reunited with long-unseen relatives. Some exulted, crying at newfound freedom from an institution whose brutality earned it the moniker “the human slaughterhouse.”
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad opened a Pandora’s Box of revelations about the cruelty of the country’s hated internal security services. Exhibit A is the Saydnaya prison, the military-run complex north of Damascus where tens of thousands of prisoners have been held, tortured, and executed over many years.
Between 2011 and 2018, more 30,000 detainees were executed or died of starvation, medical neglect, or from torture, according to estimates by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based war monitor.
Saydnaya – whose name is sometimes spelled as Sednaya -- was decidedly a Syrian creation, said Philip Luther, head of research for Amnesty International, to jail and punish alleged Islamic extremists initially, and later, political prisoners or anyone perceived to be a threat to the regime.
Since Assad’s flight over the weekend, activists have flocked to the facility throwing its doors open, releasing people, some of whom reportedly have been held for decades, hammering down walls, and unearthing the horrifying details of the facility’s operations.
“In short, I’m not aware that the design or operation of Saydnaya prison was guided or inspired by outside entities such as Iran or Russia,” Luther told RFE/RL. “The operation of the prison seems to have responded to the particular security objectives of the Syrian authorities.”
In the hours after the prison’s gates were breached, thousands of people flocked to the facility, many looking for news of relatives.
Other videos verified by RFE/RL showed people, some appearing to be rebels or insurgents, scouring through paper administrative files, while scores of men thronged corridors of the complex celebrating their release.
Other men appeared confused and befuddled inside the complex's first floor, apparently not understanding they had been freed.
"Don't be scared! The regime has fallen! Don't be scared! You are free!" says the narrator of another video verified by RFE/RL. "Leave, old man! Thank God you are safe! You are free!"
"I haven't had a biscuit in 9 years," another man said joyfully, as he also fed another inmate.
Rumors that the complex contained vast, subterranean cell blocks drew people with engineering and demolition equipment, to sledgehammer concrete walls. The White Helmets, a well-known humanitarian organization, brought in jackhammers to drill into floors.
The group issued a statement on December 9 saying that it had not discovered any “unopened or hidden areas in the facility.”
In 2017, the U.S. State Department publicly accused the Syrian government of building a crematorium at Saydnaya, and prison officials killing as many as 50 people day, mainly by hanging, the bodies being dumped in a mass grave. U.S. officials accused Syria of apparently conducting the killings with “unconditional support of Russia and Iran", though officials later qualified that there was no evidence that Russia or Iran were involved with the crematorium.
"This is from Saydnaya prison. This is the food that they're serving. "Those are the cells," one man narrates in another unverified video as he films the interior of the prison. "They feed them cabbage."
Prisoner survivors, relatives, and activists have reported that some inmates had been held in Saydnaya for years -- if not decades. One video that circulated widely but RFE/RL could not independently verify purported to show one man who was incapable of speaking and who had been held in the facility for 13 years.
The jubilation at Saydnaya was echoed elsewhere around Damascus and other cities, in scenes of other prisoners being released and exulting at their freedom.
“Ten years in prison! Ten years!” one newly freed prisoner yelled on December 8, as a crowd of men ran past the Ministry of Energy in Damascus.”
In one video that circulated widely on social media, an unnamed woman who purportedly spent years in various Syrian prisons is shown sobbing as she is reunited with her two young children.
Riyad Avlar, who spent 12 years inside the prison and is now the co-founder of the Turkey-based Association of Detainees and The Missing in Sednaya Prison, likened the facility to what he’s read about North Korea prisons.
“What people should understand is the Assad regime was like Hitler, like the Nazis. Absolutely as bad,” Avlar told RFE/RL.
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Iranian Leader Blames Assad's Downfall On U.S., Israel, And Turkey
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his first public comments since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted, accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating the rebel uprising that toppled the regime over the weekend.
Khamenei on December 11 also implicitly blamed Turkey for the lightning push of Syrian rebels who reached Damascus from their strongholds in the northwest with little resistance.
"It should not be doubted that what happened in Syria was the product of a joint American and Zionist plot," he said.
"Yes, a neighboring government of Syria plays, played, and is playing a clear role…but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command center are in America and the Zionist regime," Khamenei added.
The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey -- ousted Assad on December 8, less than two weeks after launching their offensive.
Syria under Assad served as a crucial part of a land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, which was considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance -- Iran's loose network of regional proxies and allies.
Iran spent billions of dollars and sent military advisers to Syria to ensure Assad remained in power when civil war broke out in 2011.
Russia -- where the ousted Syrian leader has been granted political asylum -- also backed Assad, while Turkey has supported rebel groups who aimed to topple the regime.
A Khamenei adviser once described Syria as the "golden ring" in the chain connecting Iran to its Lebanese partner, Hezbollah. With the ring broken and Hezbollah's capabilities degraded after a devastating war with Israel, experts say the axis has become severely weak.
Khamenei said only "ignorant and uninformed analysts" would assess that the axis has become weak and vowed that its reach "will expand across the region more than before."
Reza Alijani, an Iranian political analyst based in France, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Khamenei's comments were more "trash talk" than anything else.
"The axis may not have been defeated, but it has suffered a serious blow and the Islamic republics arms in the region have been deal major hits," he said.
Alijani argued that factions within the Islamic republic's core support base may be starting to question Khamenei's policies and vision after the recent setbacks, which he said is a cause for concern among the clerical establishment's top brass.
With reporting by Hooman Askary of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
Outside Powers Move To Protect Interests In Syria As Rebel-Backed Interim PM Named
Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad as outside powers -- including Russia, Turkey, the United States, and Israel -- maneuvered to protect their geopolitical interests in the war-torn Middle East nation.
In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend.
Little-known Bashir, born in Idlib Province in 1982 and an engineering graduate, had once worked for Syria's state gas entity and has served as head of the rebel's so-called Salvation Government for the past year.
HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government, although Western powers and rights groups remain cautious.
Meanwhile, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, on December 10 told NBC News that Moscow is providing sanctuary to Assad after transporting him there "in the most secure way possible." He didn't provide further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family.
Earlier on December 10, loud explosions were heard amid reports Israel has been systematically striking Syrian military installations following the ouster of Assad’s brutal regime.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the military had struck several Syrian sites and had hit its naval vessels in overnight strikes.
"The [military] has been operating in Syria in recent days to strike and destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success," Katz said.
Katz said Israel’s military has been ordered to create a weapons-free zone in southern Syria "to prevent the establishment and organization of terrorism] in the country.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Israel had "destroyed the most important military sites in Syria," including “airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian governorates."
The reports came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "transforming the face of the Middle East" and defeating its enemies "step by step" in what he called an "existential war that has been imposed upon us."
Netanyahu said Assad's regime had been a "central element of Iran's axis of evil," accusing it of facilitating a "weapons pipeline" between Iran and the Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States. Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Washington has also conducted some 75 air strikes on Islamic State (IS) militants, who still have a presence in Syria, in recent days to prevent the group from taking advantage of the turmoil that followed Assad's fall.
"You can expect that kind of activity will continue. We don't want to give [IS] an opportunity to exploit what is going on," White House national-security spokesman John Kirby said on December 10.
The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of its decade-long fight against IS.
"[IS] will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities, to create safe havens," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on December 9. "As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."
Washington said it is seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region, including Turkey, to initiate informal contacts.
"We have the ability to communicate with the opposition groups, and we'll continue to do that," Kirby said in his briefing.
The Syrian Observatory also said IS militants killed at least 54 government soldiers who were fleeing advancing rebels "during the collapse of the regime" in the Sukhna area of Homs Province. The report could not immediately be verified.
Meanwhile, satellite imagery by Planet Labs showed Russian naval ships have left their Syrian base at Tartus, with some dropping anchor offshore.
Imagery showed at least three vessels -- including two guided missile frigates -- some 13 kilometers off the coast.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim along with the strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government has ties to many of the rebel groups involved in the takeover, said Ankara will act against anyone seeking to compromise its Syrian territory.
"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again.... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he said.
Turkey has claimed U.S.-backed Syrian-Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria to be "terrorists" linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Ankara, as well as by Washington.
Tehran, which was also a long-standing backer of Assad, on December 10 said some 4,000 Iranian citizens have left Syria over the past three days. Iranian proxies are thought to have multiple military sites inside Syria, some of which have been hit by Israeli air attacks, but the government has so far been relatively muted in its response to Assad's fall.
On December 9, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on the situation in Syria called by Russia, which together with Iran, has been a main backer of Assad's regime.
"The Council, I think, was more or less united on the need to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, to ensure the protection of civilians, to ensure that humanitarian aid is coming to the population in need," said Russia's UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, in a statement released after the meeting.
The HTS-led rebels announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, 42, previously known by the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has become the public face of HTS, which itself was formerly known as the Al Nusra Front, among other names.
Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.
The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has often been used by far-right politicians in Europe to inflame passions and bolster their support among voters.
The EU has urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."
But EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."
The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.
Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.
The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.
With reporting by AP, AFP, and dpa
- By Ray Furlong and
- Abubakar Siddique
Western Countries Face Dilemma Over Syria's Blacklisted New Rulers
With the dust still swirling after the dramatic collapse of the Syrian government, some Western governments have hinted that they may be open to working with emerging new rulers that they currently consider to be part of a terrorist organization.
Three key European capitals have all indicated that they could change their stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the blacklisted Islamist militant group that swept into Damascus on December 8.
This came after comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, reflecting on how the group’s rhetoric had changed as it sought to distance itself from its previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda: "As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”
President-elect Donald Trump's immediate response revealed little about how Syria policy might evolve on his watch, beyond stating simply that it is "not our fight." But his administration will also have to decide how to deal with Syria.
"I suspect there's going to be a lot of conversation about what kind of government HTS is going to form," said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.
"Maybe we will see some dynamics like we saw with Sudan, with sanctions relief in return for normalization with Israel. So, there are a lot of big questions on the horizon, and I'm not even sure HTS necessarily has the answers [at this stage]."
It is clear the group's position as a leading player in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad presents Western governments with a dilemma. Previously a relatively minor armed group, controlling Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, it was easy to proscribe and largely ignore.
But HTS now appears too important for that, so Western governments seem to be carefully rowing back.
France’s acting foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told France Info radio on December 8 that HTS was "an Islamist movement” that must “demonstrate its sincere desire to rid the transition of extremism, Islamism, and jihadism." He added that an envoy would leave for Damascus this week.
Germany took a similarly equivocal line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said moves by HTS to distance itself from its past would be judged by its treatment of civilians and ethnic and religious minorities.
In Britain, Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden said a "swift decision" would need to be made about whether to remove HTS from the government's list of designated terrorist organizations.
It is not yet clear what role HTS will play in a post-Assad Syria. But if, as seems likely, it emerges as a key player, Western governments appear keen to keep their options open.
"I think the West should deal with the new reality on the ground," said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
"They should put forward clear benchmarks for HTS, and if they meet them, they should reconsider their sanctions/designations that will only be an impediment to peace and security to post-Assad Syria."
This approach would differ to that taken toward Taliban-run Afghanistan. There, Western governments have kept their distance from an extremist group whose widespread human rights abuses and severe restrictions on women they have repeatedly condemned.
"I don't see HTS doing things like banning girls from going to school. I think they are more moderate than the Taliban," said U.S.-based analyst Ayub.
"HTS has a lot of questions to ask themselves, because fighting a war is very different than governing a country. And we saw, you know, the Taliban struggle to make this shift in Afghanistan. I still think there are a lot of open questions."
And even as Western governments appeared to shift cautiously on HTS, they have also made it clear that they take nothing on trust. Biden stressed that the group had its own "grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses."
They are also readying for a scenario in which a stable new government fails to emerge, and the threat of a resurgence by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group. On December 8, U.S. officials said warplanes carried out strikes on what they called 75 IS targets in Syria.
Another concern is stocks of chemical weapons held by the Assad government, and whose hands they might now fall into. Israel said it had struck facilities in connection with this.
The situation in Syria also has a potential impact on domestic politics in a number of countries. Millions of Syrians fled the country's devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, and questions are being asked about how many of them will wish -- or be able -- to return home.
Hundreds of them have formed lines on Syria's borders with Lebanon and Turkey. The presence of large Syrian refugee populations has been a source of tension in both countries, as it has been in Europe.
In Germany, it was announced that asylum decisions for Syrians would be frozen until the situation became clearer. A senior opposition figure called for financial incentives for Syrian refugees to return. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said it was "too soon" for such talk.
- By Kian Sharifi
Fall Of Assad Unravels Iran's Decades-Old 'Axis Of Resistance'
Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors.
The network was the lynchpin of Tehran's efforts to deter Israel and the United States and exert its influence across the Middle East.
But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say.
For Iran, Syria provided a crucial land corridor to the Levant that was considered the logistical backbone of the axis. The corridor, also known as the Shi'ite Crescent, connected Tehran to the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, a key ally and an integral part of the axis.
"There is no axis without access," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "The resistance is not done, but losing the ability to logistically support Hezbollah means the loss of Iran's strategic depth."
Broken Corridor
Underscoring Syria's importance, Iran spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power.
Tehran intervened militarily in Syria's civil war in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
After the loss of the land corridor connecting axis members from Iran to Lebanon, "we are likely to see a much-diminished resistance in the coming months and years," said Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
The axis, he said, will have "a considerably lower capacity to rebuild or conduct military operations in the future."
At its height, the axis was active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and was meant to give Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability.
But the axis has suffered a series of debilitating setbacks in recent months.
Syria is now effectively ruled by the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies -- some of whom are linked with Turkey, Iran's rival. The HTS seized power in Damascus on December 8.
Hezbollah has been severely weakened after a bruising, yearlong war with Israel, which killed the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has diminished the capabilities of U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, another axis member.
Events in Syria "will certainly place significantly more restraints on Iran’s ability to maintain its regional influence," said Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran's 'Very Bad' Options
Weakened regionally, Iran now has tough decisions to make, including reconsidering its deterrence strategy and possibly developing a nuclear bomb, experts say.
Zimmt says Iran has two "very bad options" -- to do nothing and recognize that its deterrence against Israel has been compromised, or weaponize its nuclear program and expose itself to the possibility of an Israeli attack.
Things look equally grim for Iran’s axis of resistance, according to Sabet, who says Tehran will be under pressure to pull back its regional activities.
Sabet says Iran will seek to exploit any potential chaos in the region, including in post-Assad Syria, to reassert its influence.
"If the civil war in Syria is not quickly settled and a new order created, it might become precisely the type of environment where the Islamic republic has historically thrived," Sabet said.
- By Mike Eckel
How Assad's Fall Threatens Russia's Military Influence In Syria -- And Across The Region
Nine years ago, a caravan of hulking military cargo planes and aging naval ships began shuttling back and forth from Russian bases depositing a massive expeditionary military force to western Syria, cementing Russia's muscular presence in the Middle East and ultimately saving the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Assad is now gone, the fate of those bases are now jeopardy, and the question of Russia's entire Middle East strategy is now very much up in the air.
The fall of the Assad regime this past weekend was a tectonic event, reverberating across the entire Middle East and further. The Kremlin's 2015 Syria intervention, which scrambled the regional calculus, is now being scrambled yet again as Moscow tries to figure out what to do next.
As of December 9, there were no confirmed signs of any Russian pullout from Syria. An unnamed Kremlin official told the TASS state news agency that Russia had reached an agreement to ensure the safety of its military assets in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment to reporters.
"It's still premature to discuss this," he told reporters. "However, this will be a topic for discussion with whomever will be in charge in Syria in the future."
Here's what you need to know about Russia's presence in Syria, and what might come next.
What, Where, And Who
Russia's presence with Syria dates back to Soviet relations with Assad's father, and resulted in a critical asset for Moscow in 1971: naval access to the deep-water Mediterranean port at Tartus. Moscow's attention waned until 2011, when a popular uprising morphed into outright civil war threatening Assad's government.
In September 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's largest expeditionary force in decades, if ever, to deploy to Syria to bolster Assad's sputtering efforts to battle rebels and extremist groups. Syria granted Russia a 49-year lease access to Tartus and the air base at Hmeimim.
"The situation was very difficult, both in terms of morale and exhaustion," General Valery Gerasimov, the chairman of Russia's General Staff, said in an interview published in 2017. "A lack of ammunition, necessary types of support, command. Our operation began, and after some time we saw the first successes…. Today the Syrian Army is capable of performing tasks to protect its territory."
The following year, after months of relentless air strikes that obliterated cities -- a campaign so ruthless that the commander who ordered it was given the nickname "General Armageddon" -- Syria's military had the upper hand. Emboldened Russian forces, whose numbers also included private Wagner Group mercenaries, clashed with U.S.-backed forces in eastern Syria in 2018.
At the peak of Russia's intervention in Syria, around 2017, as many as 6,000 combat and auxiliary troops were deployed, including mercenary forces, according to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
Most of those ground forces were employed to advise Syria's military, but commanders also deployed Russian artillery and armored units, as well as special forces, to support Syrian infantry, particularly in 2016 during the offensive to retake Aleppo, Syria's largest city.
It's unclear how big the current Russian contingent on the ground is. The Telegram channel YeZh estimated 7,000 troops remained in the country.
Whither The Warm-Water Port
Tartus was a springboard for Russia to project power, not only in Syria throughout the Middle East but into Africa and elsewhere. After 2015, Russia used its Baltic and Black Sea ships extensively to supply the port and transport heavy weaponry and construction equipment. A construction company linked to a Kremlin-allied businessman was awarded a contract in 2019 to manage and expand the port.
The port's mooring capacity is as many as 11 vessels, including nuclear-powered ships. Several diesel-electric submarines cycled in and out of the facility and were used to fire Kalibr cruise missiles at Syrian targets.
The port's water depth also accommodated larger ships, including the Russian Navy's oft-mocked flagship, the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, which was deployed to the eastern Mediterranean between October 2016 and January 2017.
In days prior to the capture of Damascus by Syrian rebel groups, several ships, most of which that had been berthed at Tartus, were spotted heading out to sea, stoking speculation that an evacuation was under way. Тhe Defense Ministry, however, on December 3 released footage of the flotilla firing missiles, saying the maneuvers were a training exercise.
"What Tartus meant for Russia was the ability to project maritime power and political influence relatively uncontested in the Middle East and allowed to punch above its weight," Fredrik Van Lokeren, a retired Belgian naval officer, wrote in a December 8 blog post.
The Russian ships at Tartus might have been utilized to help Russia's operations in the Black Sea, which have also been severely curtailed by innovative Ukrainian tactics. But the warships are barred from transiting Turkey's Bosporus by international treaty.
Forced Air
Located some 60 kilometers up the coast from Tartus, Russia's air forces have utilized the Hmeimim air base. In addition to hosting fighter jets and helicopters, it's also served as the destination for the massive cargo planes that have shuttled men and materiel in and out of Syria.
Russian engineers enlarged the base in 2016-17, lengthening runways and expanding parking capacity. Putin paid an unannounced visit to the base in December 2017, where he declared victory of Syria's rebel forces, whom he called "terrorists."
"If the terrorists again raise their heads, we will deal such blows to them as they have never seen," he said at the time.
Russia's air fleet in Syria included more than two dozen Su-24 and Su-25 frontline bombers and ground-attack aircraft, according to a semi-official report published in 2016, along with at least eight advanced Su-30 fighter bombers and 12 Mi-24 and Ka-52 attack helicopters, among others.
From September 2015 to January 2018, CSIS estimates, Russian forces flew more than 34,000 combat sorties, with Su-24s and Su-34s serving as the primary strike aircraft.
Russian forces also deployed short-range Iskander-M ballistic missiles systems, as well as the sophisticated long-range S-400 air-defense system and short-range defenses like Pantsir and Tor systems. All would have to be shipped out by air or sea.
In recent days, commercial satellite imagery has shown the presence of several Ilyushin Il-76 jets -- heavy-lift workhorse cargo planes -- parked on the runways at Hmeimim, suggesting the possibility of the beginning of an evacuation.
However, given the amount of weaponry and equipment deployed to Syria and Moscow's reluctance to leave it for Syrian rebels, it would require dozens of flights or sea shipment to remove it all. It will be difficult to hide that, said Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
From Latakia To Donbas
The best explanation for the dizzying collapse of Assad and his military is the absence of support from Damascus's two strongest allies: Iran and Russia. Where Russia is concerned, the explanation leads to its unrelenting invasion of Ukraine, now in its 34th month with no end in sight.
Russia's casualties there have climbed past 600,000, according to Western estimates, and its economy is running at torrid pace, as defense factories rush to keep pace with Ukraine's destruction of weaponry and equipment.
That means little spare capacity -- men and material -- to bolster Syria's efforts.
The Kremlin may still end up reaching an agreement with the rebel leadership and preserve access to one or both facilities in Syria. If not, however, Russia's ability to project military or economic power will be severely curtailed.
The two facilities were a key conduit for covert and overt military supplies in north and central Africa, as well as a conduit for revenues generated in several countries, often under dubious circumstances.
That includes places like Libya, where Russian mercenaries and irregular forces fought alongside a renegade Libyan general, Khalifa Haftar, in a 2019 offensive to seize the port of Tripoli.
Russia operations have also spread to other troubled African regions like the Central African Republic and Niger. Last July, in Mali, a Russian mercenary force suffered major losses in a battle with Tuareg rebels.
Experts say Russia could shift some aviation operations to Libya, about 1,500 kilometers to the southwest across the Mediterranean. But it would be more difficult to fly cargo jets all the way from Russia to Libya loaded down with heavy weaponry -- even assuming Russia could secure overflight rights from Turkey.
Russian war bloggers have voiced alarmed about the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria.
"Russia's military presence in the Middle East region hangs by a thread," Rybar, a blogger with links to Defense Ministry, said in a post on Telegram.
"It is almost impossible to evacuate the bases. In the best case, it is possible to evacuate most of the personnel, documentation and serviceable aircraft," one prominent blogger, named FighterBomber, said in a Telegram post prior to Assad's fall. "Some equipment that's still running can be packed into dry cargo ships and landing ships, but of course not all. All the rest of the property will remain at the bases."
With reporting by Mark Krutov and Todd Prince
Syrian Refugee On Assad's Fall : 'If I'm Dreaming, Please Don't Wake Me Up' (Video)
Noura Bittar, a Syrian refugee living in Denmark, says she is celebrating the end of the Assad's rule but fears what the future holds. Noura arrived in Denmark from Syria in October 2011. She has not returned to Syria since. RFE/RL asked Noura about her reaction to recent scenes from Syria.
With Assad In Russia, Syria's Former Rebels Seek Stability Out Of Chaos
With ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad somewhere in Russia, the new de facto rulers in Damascus have begun efforts to stabilize the situation as a wary global community awaited developments with caution.
The rebels, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist militant group, announced on December 9 that they were granting amnesty to all military personnel conscripted during Assad's rule, which began in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had seized power in 1970.
Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Ghazi al-Jalali -- who has remained at his post and vowed to cooperate with the new rulers -- said most cabinet ministers were still in their offices. Jalali met earlier with the new leaders, according to a rebel statement.
"We are working so that the transitional period is quick and smooth," he said in comments to Sky News Arabia TV.
Reports out of the rebel camp said veteran politician Muhammad al-Bashir has been chosen to lead the transitional government. He has been serving as head of HTS's so-called Syrian Salvation Government for the past year.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is set to convene for an emergency session on the situation in Syria on December 9 following the ouster of Assad, who fled to Russia with his family as rebel troops bore down on Damascus.
The emergency session -- called by long-standing Assad-backer Russia -- will be held behind closed doors as world and regional powers call for stability in the civil war-wracked Middle Eastern country.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on December 9 that while President Vladimir Putin made the decision personally to grant asylum to Assad and his family, there was no obligation to give any further details
"I have nothing to tell you about the whereabouts of Assad," Peskov added.
The TASS news agency quoted an official at the Syrian Embassy in Moscow as saying Assad was in the Russian capital. The report has not been confirmed.
Air strikes could be heard in Damascus early on December 9, according to media reports, although it was not immediately clear who conducted the strikes.
Earlier, Reuters reported that Israel had conducted three air strikes on the Syrian capital on December 8.
In Damascus and other Syrian cities, people took to the streets to celebrate Assad's ouster, pulling down statues, and ransacking government buildings and Assad's residence.
Social-media footage showed crowds of men entering the presidential place in Damascus, with reports of looting.
The HTS-led rebels said in a statement aired on state TV that Damascus was "now free of Assad," whose family had ruled the country with an iron fist since 1971.
HTS has been designated a terrorist group by the United States and European Union. In recent years, the group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government.
But some rights groups and Western governments say questions remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.
HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani has sought to reassure Shi'ite Alawites and other Syrian minorities, including Christians, that he will not discriminate against minorities.
Hagop Khatcharian, an Armenian living in Damascus, told RFE/RL that the "situation is calm now."
"I am always in touch with local Armenians; they are safe, and there is no issue. There hasn't been any significant trouble yet, but there is uncertainty about what the future holds," he said, adding that he remained wary of promises by the new leaders that no harm will come to minorities.
In Washington, President Joe Biden said the United States "will engage with all Syrian groups" as the country transitions to a post-Assad government.
"Assad should be held accountable," Biden said, but cautioned that some of the rebel groups that helped overthrow Assad "have their own grim record" of human rights abuses even though they have been "saying the right things" in recent days.
He said the United States will be closely watching the activities of the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, which could seek to use the power vacuum to again establish rule in Syria.
EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni said the bloc was "not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders, full stop."
He said that, despite some hopeful words from the rebel groups, the EU would reserve judgment for now. "As HTS takes on greater responsibilities, we will need to assess not just their words but also their actions," he said.
The EU earlier urged a peaceful political transition in Syria, saying that "it is imperative that all stakeholders engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues."
In a joint statement, France and Germany said they were conditionally ready to work with the new leaders.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron "agreed that they were ready to cooperate with the new leadership on the basis of fundamental human rights and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities," Berlin said in a statement.
NATO chief Mark Rutte was also cautious as he called for a peaceful transition and an inclusive political process in Syria.
"This is a moment of joy but also uncertainty for the people of Syria and the region. We hope for a peaceful transition of power and an inclusive Syrian-led political process," said Rutte, who blamed Assad's main backers -- Russia and Iran -- for the long crisis and civil war in the country.
Several European states on December 9 announced they were suspending the granting of asylum requests from Syrians as they awaited developments.
The flood of Syrian refugees during the country's 14-year civil war has been blasted by far-right politicians in Europe and used by many to bolster their support among voters.
Among the countries announcing suspensions were Germany, Britain, France, Austria, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark.
The German Interior Ministry said 974,136 people with Syrian nationality were living in the country, with 5,090 having been recognized as eligible for asylum, 321,444 granted refugee status, and 329,242 granted temporary protection.
The Syrian civil war began after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal crackdown in March 2011 against peaceful demonstrators inspired by the wave of protests known as the Arab Spring that were sweeping the Middle East at the time.
Beginning in 2015, Russia intervened in the civil war on Assad's side, unleashing a massive bombing campaign against the rebel groups, including Islamist militants, causing numerous civilian casualties and prompting tens of thousands to flee.
The fall of the Assad regime marks a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Iran, has propped up his government, experts say.
Biden said Russia had been weakened by the nearly three-year war in Ukraine while Iran's proxies in the region have been crushed by Israel.
Besides Russia, Assad has relied on Iran and its Hezbollah proxies to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011. Iran's Foreign Ministry said it expects "friendly" relations with Syria to continue and it would take "appropriate approaches" toward Damascus.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad's fall "a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah."
He hailed Assad's overthrow as the fall of a "central link in Iran's axis of evil."
Israel has launched a monthslong air campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and sub-Saharan Africa.
Ruslan Suleymanov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told RFE/RL that Moscow would "cooperate with the rebels" if they take power in Damascus and that HTS too had "claimed previously that it was ready to negotiate" with the Kremlin.
"Putin wants to save his military presence in the region. In any case, to do that, he has to make concessions -- both to jihadists and to [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, who supports [the rebels]," Suleymanov said.
The United States said it will maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of IS in the region. The United States has about 900 soldiers in Syria.
Tom Fletcher, head of the UN humanitarian aid agency, warned about the plight of the millions of Syrians displaced by nearly 14 years of civil war. Now many more are in danger, Fletcher said.
"We will respond wherever, whenever, however we can, to support people in need, including reception centers -- food, water, fuel, tents, blankets," he said.
Human Rights Watch (HRW), meanwhile, cautioned that the armed groups that ousted Assad should ensure humane treatment for all Syrians.
"The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government offers Syrians an unprecedented opportunity to chart a new future built on justice, accountability, and respect for human rights," HRW said in a statement.
Amnesty International also called the end of the Assad regime "a historic opportunity to end and redress decades of grave human rights violations" in Syria.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
The Assad Legacy: Civilian Deaths, Sieges, And Chemical Weapons (Video)
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country after 24 years in power. He's accused of cracking down violently on opponents, ordering mass executions, targeting schools and hospitals during the battle for the city of Aleppo, and using chemical weapons against largely civilian populations. Warning: Graphic Images
- By Kian Sharifi
The Militant Leader Who Captured Damascus
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani was for years a relatively obscure militant leader in Syria. But the 42-year-old has shot to prominence after leading a stunning military offensive that toppled longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
In a sign of his rapid rise, Jolani used his real name -- Ahmed al-Sharaa -- rather than his nom de guerre as he triumphantly announced "the capture of Damascus" in a televised address on December 8.
Jolani, head of the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has long tried to change his public image. He has publicly renounced his ties to Al-Qaeda and tried to portray himself as a pragmatist and tolerant leader.
The extent of that transformation will be put to the test as Jolani, who has a $10 million bounty on his head, and the HTS prepare to play a major role in post-Assad Syria.
The HTS is a militant Islamist group that seeks to establish a state in Syria governed by Islamic law. HTS is allied with several smaller militant Islamist groups, some of which are made up of foreign fighters from Europe and Central Asia.
Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, described HTS members as "political jihadists."
"Jolani and HTS are more pragmatic on politics -- they are sort of in between your traditional political Islamists and what we've described as global jihadists" like members of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, he added.
The 'Wily' Jolani
Jolani was born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia to Syrian parents who came from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The early years of his militant activities are murky. He is believed to have joined Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) after the U.S. invasion in 2003.
In 2012, Jolani founded Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.
Based in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib, it later changed its name several times and distanced itself from Al-Qaeda. In 2017, it merged with other opposition groups to form HTS.
Jolani once sported a turban and long beard and donned military fatigues. But he ditched the hallmarks of a militant leader, opting to wear blazers, trim his facial hair, and give interviews to Western media.
The HTS leader is "wily and driven to achieve and consolidate power for himself and his organization," said Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies and Shi'ite militias.
Despite his image makeover and attempts to remake himself into a pragmatist and moderate, concerns remain over Jolani and his group over their alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.
In a 2013 statement announcing Jolani's designation as a terrorist, the U.S. State Department referenced suicide bombings carried out by Jolani's Nusra Front and said his group's "violent, sectarian vision" is at odds with the aspirations of the Syrian public.
"Extremism and terrorist ideology have no place in a post-Assad Syria," the statement said.
In 2017, the U.S. Embassy in Syria wrote on social media that Washington remains "committed to bringing" senior figures of Al-Qaeda's Syrian network "to justice," including Jolani.
HTS's primary goal was to overthrow the Assad government, but its secondary target was to "build institutions that would be beneficial and helpful to Syrians," Zelin said.
"They have obviously had a track record of trying to do this in Idlib," he added.
But even if Jolani and the HTS keep their promises of tolerance and inclusivity, shedding their terrorism designations could take years, Zelin said.
Syria's Assad Flees To Moscow, Reportedly Granted Asylum
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, a Russian diplomat said, as rebels took control of the capital, Damascus, bringing to an end the brutal, half-century rule of the Assad family.
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador in Vienna, said in a social media post late on December 8 that "Assad and his family are in Moscow" after going through what he characterized as a "difficult situation."
According to Russian media reports, Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Moscow. The Biden administration could not confirm the information but said it had no reason to doubt it.
Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad "decided to resign" after "negotiations" with a "number of participants in the armed conflict" and left office "giving instructions for a peaceful transfer of power."
"Russia did not participate in these negotiations," the ministry added.
Russia has been a longstanding ally of Syria, providing significant military and political support to Assad's regime, especially during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.
The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement came as the rebels said in a statement aired on state TV that Damascus is "now free of Assad," whose family ruled the country with an iron fist since 1971.
Syrians across the country took to the streets to celebrate Assad's ouster, pulling down statues and ransacking government buildings. Social media footage showed crowds of men entering the presidential place in Damascus, with reports of looting.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said in a video that the government is "ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people."
"We believe that Syria is for all Syrians and that it is the country of all its sons and that this country can be a normal state that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world without entering into any regional alliances and blocs," Jalali said.
He was later seen leaving his home on December 8, escorted by armed men, reportedly to meet the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Sunni rebel group that led the current offensive against the Assad regime.
HTS is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization. In recent years, the Islamist militant group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government. But concerns remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the HTS, has sought to reassure Shi'ite Alawites and other Syrian minorities, including Christians, that he will not discriminate against minorities.
U.S. Strikes Against IS
In Washington, President Joe Biden said the United States "will engage with all Syrian groups" as the country transitions to a post-Assad government.
He cautioned that some of the rebel groups that helped overthrow Assad "have their own grim record" of human rights abuses even though they have been "saying the right things" in recent days.
"As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words but their actions," Biden said in a televised address from the White House on December 8.
He said the United States will be closely watching the activities of the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, which could seek to use the power vacuum to again establish rule in Syria.
Biden said the United States conducted precision strikes on IS positions in Syria earlier in the day.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the Assad regime’s refusal since 2011 to engage "in a credible political process and its reliance on the brutal support of Russia and Iran led inevitably to its own collapse."
"After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope," he added.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters on background it was a "significant" strike on 75 IS targets in eastern Syria using B-52s and F-15s.
"These guys want to reconstitute...and we are going to make sure that if they think they can seize advantage in this situation, that they can't," the senior official said.
Setback For Russia
Experts have said the fall of the Assad regime represents a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Russia and Iran did not appear to bolster the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), which was rapidly collapsing, by rushing in additional forces.
Biden said Russia has been weakened by the nearly three-year war in Ukraine while Iran's proxies in the region have been crushed by Israel.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the Russian RIA Novosti news agency, the leaders of the armed Syrian opposition "have guaranteed security to the Russian military bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria." RFE/RL can not confirm those reports.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he "wasn't in the business of guessing."
The senior Biden administration official expressed some doubt about Russia's ability to maintain the bases.
"The Russians have now announced that they have taken Assad to Moscow. So we'll see what the Syrians who have worked for decades to overthrow the yoke of the Assad regime think about that when it comes to the Russian facilities," he said.
Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of Russia's upper house of parliament, said on December 8 that Syrians will have to cope with a full-scale war alone, but he suggested Moscow was ready to support the Syrian people in certain circumstances.
The ISW said Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the naval base, "but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory."
Ruslan Suleymanov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told RFE/RL that Moscow would "cooperate with the rebels" if they take power in Damascus and that HTS too has "claimed previously that it was ready to negotiate" with the Kremlin.
"Putin wants to save his military presence in the region. In any case, to do that, he has to make concessions -- both to jihadists and to [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan who supports [the rebels]," Suleymanov said.
The surprise offensive began on November 27 during which a coalition of rebel groups led by HTS captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria's second largest.
Since then, they moved on to take other major cities with Assad's forces providing little resistance.
Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country's consent.
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
Neighbors, World Powers React
The developments in Damascus prompted Syria's neighbors to take urgent measures, with Lebanon announcing it was closing all its land border crossings with Syria except for one that links Beirut with Damascus.
Jordan closed a border crossing with Syria, too.
Israel said on December 8 it has deployed forces in a demilitarized buffer zone along its northern border with Syria and sent troops "other places necessary for its defense."
The Israeli military said the deployment was meant to provide security for residents of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
The United States said it will maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State (IS) in the region. The United States has about 900 soldiers in Syria.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro said Washington is "aware that the chaotic and dynamic circumstances on the ground in Syria could give [IS] space to find the ability to become active, to plan external operations."
Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain on December 8, Shapiro said the United States is determined to work with its partners to "continue to degrade [IS] capabilities."
"[We're determined] to ensure [IS's] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of IS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons," Shapiro added.
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen described the latest developments as a "watershed moment in Syria's history" and urged all armed actors in the country to maintain law and order and preserve pubic institutions.
Speaking in Doha on December 8, Pedersen also said he has no information on Assad's whereabouts.
Tom Fletcher, head of the UN humanitarian aid agency, warned about the plight of the millions of Syrians displaced by nearly 14 years of the country’s civil war. Now many more are in danger, Fletcher said.
“We will respond wherever, whenever, however we can, to support people in need, including reception centers -- food, water, fuel, tents, blankets,” he said.
British Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner called for a "political solution" while the French Foreign Ministry said in a statement it was time in Syria for unity, a peaceful political transition, and for fighting to end.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
- By Riin Aljas and
- Carl Schreck
Celebrations, Looting, And Statue Surfing: Scenes From Syria After Assad's Fall
The collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime sparked nationwide celebrations, as scenes of jubilation and chaos unfolded across the country.
In the early hours of December 8, videos emerged on social media showing groups of people gathering on Umayyad Square in Damascus, a key landmark in the capital. Thousands more joined them throughout the day, with some participants climbing atop a tank.
Social media footage verified by RFE/RL showed people exiting the central bank building in Damascus carrying bags and boxes.
Looting was reported in the capital and in other cities across the country, according to multiple eyewitness accounts.
At the gates of the presidential palace in Damascus, video footage captured jubilant men cheering and firing weapons into the air.
People were seen entering the palace freely throughout the day after Assad fled the country. Russian state media reported later on December 8 that he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum.
Video footage from inside the palace showed crowds milling around, as well as people carrying out furniture and valuables, leaving trashed rooms behind them.
Verified video footage obtained by RFE/RL also showed the building of the Syrian Interior Ministry's immigration and passport department ablaze in Damascus.
Statues of Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, who created the authoritarian system his son inherited, were dismantled nationwide after a lightning-fast rebel offensive.
On Arwad Island, off the coast of Tartus and around 10 kilometers from a Russian naval base, jubilant crowds toppled a statue of the elder Assad, who died in 2000, and climbed onto the monument in celebration.
In Latakia, a coastal town that was a stronghold of the Assad family, another statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down and dragged through the streets behind a truck as revelers rode atop it.
Images also showed the aftermath of the storming of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which appeared to have been abandoned earlier on December 8. Iranian media reported that diplomats had already evacuated the premises.
Russia Says Syria's Assad Granted Asylum In Moscow
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, Russian state media reported, as rebels have taken control of the Syrian capital, Damascus, bringing to an end the brutal, half-century rule of the Assad family.
According to Russian media reports, Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Moscow. The Biden administration could not confirm the information but said it had no reason to doubt it.
Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad "decided to resign" after "negotiations" with a "number of participants in the armed conflict" and left office "giving instructions for a peaceful transfer of power."
"Russia did not participate in these negotiations," the ministry added.
Russia has been a longstanding ally of Syria, providing significant military and political support to Assad's regime, especially during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.
The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement came as the rebels said in a statement aired on state TV that Damascus is "now free of Assad," whose family ruled the country with an iron fist since 1971.
Syrians across the country took to the streets to celebrate Assad's ouster, pulling down statues and ransacking government buildings. Social media footage showed crowds of men entering the presidential place in Damascus, with reports of looting.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said in a video that the government is "ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people."
"We believe that Syria is for all Syrians and that it is the country of all its sons and that this country can be a normal state that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world without entering into any regional alliances and blocs," Jalali said.
He was later seen leaving his home on December 8, escorted by armed men, reportedly to meet the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Sunni rebel group that led the current offensive against the Assad regime.
HTS is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization. In recent years, the Islamist militant group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government. But concerns remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the HTS, has sought to reassure Shi'ite Alawites and other Syrian minorities, including Christians, that he will not discriminate against minorities.
U.S. Strikes Against IS
In Washington, President Joe Biden said the United States "will engage with all Syrian groups" as the country transitions to a post-Assad government.
He cautioned that some of the rebel groups that helped overthrow Assad "have their own grim record" of human rights abuses even though they have been "saying the right things" in recent days.
"As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words but their actions," Biden said in a televised address from the White House on December 8.
He said the United States will be closely watching the activities of the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, which could seek to use the power vacuum to again establish rule in Syria.
Biden said the United States conducted precision strikes on IS positions in Syria earlier in the day.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters on background it was a "significant" strike on 75 IS targets in eastern Syria using B-52s and F-15s.
"These guys want to reconstitute...and we are going to make sure that if they think they can seize advantage in this situation, that they can't," the senior official said.
Setback For Russia
Experts have said the fall of the Assad regime represents a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Russia and Iran did not appear to bolster the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), which was rapidly collapsing, by rushing in additional forces.
Biden said Russia has been weakened by the nearly three-year war in Ukraine while Iran's proxies in the region have been crushed by Israel.
Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin's actions in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the Russian RIA Novosti news agency, the leaders of the armed Syrian opposition "have guaranteed security to the Russian military bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria." RFE/RL can not confirm those reports.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he "wasn't in the business of guessing."
The senior Biden administration official expressed some doubt about Russia's ability to maintain the bases.
"The Russians have now announced that they have taken Assad to Moscow. So we'll see what the Syrians who have worked for decades to overthrow the yoke of the Assad regime think about that when it comes to the Russian facilities," he said.
Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of Russia's upper house of parliament, said on December 8 that Syrians will have to cope with a full-scale war alone, but he suggested Moscow was ready to support the Syrian people in certain circumstances.
The ISW said Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the naval base, "but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory."
Ruslan Suleymanov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told RFE/RL that Moscow would "cooperate with the rebels" if they take power in Damascus and that HTS too has "claimed previously that it was ready to negotiate" with the Kremlin.
"Putin wants to save his military presence in the region. In any case, to do that, he has to make concessions -- both to jihadists and to [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan who supports [the rebels]," Suleymanov said.
The surprise offensive began on November 27 during which a coalition of rebel groups led by HTS captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria's second largest.
Since then, they moved on to take other major cities with Assad's forces providing little resistance.
Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country's consent.
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
Neighbors, World Powers React
The developments in Damascus prompted Syria's neighbors to take urgent measures, with Lebanon announcing it was closing all its land border crossings with Syria except for one that links Beirut with Damascus.
Jordan closed a border crossing with Syria, too.
Israel said on December 8 it has deployed forces in a demilitarized buffer zone along its northern border with Syria and sent troops "other places necessary for its defense."
The Israeli military said the deployment was meant to provide security for residents of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
The United States said it will maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State (IS) in the region. The United States has about 900 soldiers in Syria.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro said Washington is "aware that the chaotic and dynamic circumstances on the ground in Syria could give [IS] space to find the ability to become active, to plan external operations."
Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain on December 8, Shapiro said the United States is determined to work with its partners to "continue to degrade [IS] capabilities."
"[We're determined] to ensure [IS's] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of IS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons," Shapiro added.
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen described the latest developments as a "watershed moment in Syria's history" and urged all armed actors in the country to maintain law and order and preserve pubic institutions.
Speaking in Doha on December 8, Pedersen also said he has no information on Assad's whereabouts.
Tom Fletcher, head of the UN humanitarian aid agency, warned about the plight of the millions of Syrians displaced by nearly 14 years of the country’s civil war. Now many more are in danger, Fletcher said.
“We will respond wherever, whenever, however we can, to support people in need, including reception centers -- food, water, fuel, tents, blankets,” he said.
British Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner called for a "political solution" while the French Foreign Ministry said in a statement it was time in Syria for unity, a peaceful political transition, and for fighting to end.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says Russia, Iran In 'Weakened State,' Calls On Putin To Make Ukraine Deal
President-elect Donald Trump said Russia and Iran are in a "weakened state" and called on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
Trump made the comments in a post on Truth Social on December 8 as Syrian rebels captured Damascus, ending the half-century rule of the Russia- and Iran-backed Assad family.
The incoming U.S. president said Russia and Iran couldn't come to the support of Syrian dictator Assad because they were in a "weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."
Russia has lost about 600,000 soldiers since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Trump said, adding that Ukraine has lost about 400,000 defending its territory.
"There should be an immediate cease-fire and negotiations should begin," Trump said. "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting!"
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to Trump's comment.
Paris Meeting
Trump said in the post that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy "would like to make a deal."
Trump held talks with Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on December 7 to discuss the war. Zelenskiy called the trilateral talks "good and productive" and said the leaders discussed the potential for "a just peace."
Trump and Zelenskiy were among world leaders who gathered in Paris on December 7 to mark the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
"We talked about our people, the situation on the battlefield, and a just peace for Ukraine. We all want to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible," Zelenskiy said in a December 7 post on Telegram.
"President Trump, as always, is determined. We are thankful for that," he added.
Macron said, "Let us continue joint efforts for peace, security."
Trump, who will take office on January 20, has criticized the tens of billions of dollars the United States has poured into Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.
He has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours of retaking the White House, a statement that has been interpreted as meaning that Ukraine would have to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.
Experts say it will be difficult to hammer out a peace deal quickly because there are so many aspects, including security guarantees for Ukraine and sanctions relief for Russia.
In the meantime, the outgoing Biden administration has been accelerating weapons shipments to Ukraine ahead of the transfer of power to Trump to bolster its defenses.
Washington said on December 7 that it is preparing a $988 million package of arms and equipment to Ukraine, funds taken from the remaining $2.21 billion available in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The funds will be used to buy precision missiles for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and for drones, the Pentagon said.
European countries are also stepping up aid in case the Trump administration ends U.S. support for Kyiv.
Zelenskiy announced on December 7 that Ukraine had received a second shipment of sophisticated F-16 fighter jets from Denmark. Copenhagen announced last year it would deliver a total of 19 aircraft to Ukraine.
"The second batch of F-16s for Ukraine from Denmark is already in Ukraine. This is the leadership in protecting life that distinguishes Denmark," he wrote on Telegram.
Syrians Take To The Streets As Assad's Rule Collapses
Celebrating crowds flooded the streets of Syria's biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, early on December 8 after the opposition declared an end to the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. Men in Damascus snatched the head from a statue of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad. The total of their rule spanned from 1971 to 2024. In the central city of Homs, armed rebels celebrated in the mosque accommodating the grave of medieval Arab commander Khalid Ibn al-Walid. In Damascus, the Iranian Embassy was stormed and looted.
- By Michael Scollon and
- Frud Bezhan
Losing Syria Is A 'Huge Slap In The Face' For Russia
When Vladimir Putin took the reins of power in a post-Soviet Russia in shambles a quarter-century ago, he immediately set about restoring Moscow's status as a global power.
It took 15 years, but Russia heralded its military intervention in the Syrian civil war as proof of its return as a force to be reckoned with on the international stage.
Moscow leveraged that image to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond as a counterweight to the West.
Now, the fall of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Moscow, has dealt a serious blow to Russia's great-power ambitions.
"Putin's military adventure in Syria was designed to demonstrate that Russia is a great power and can project its influence abroad," said Phillip Smyth, a Middle East expert. "Losing Syria is a huge slap in the face for Putin."
Assad's ouster represents not only a reputational hit to Russia but likely a major strategic setback.
Syria is home to two major Russian military installations: an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. The latter is Russia's only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union and provides Moscow access to the Mediterranean Sea.
"Russia has used its bases in Syria to project its power both into the eastern Mediterranean and into the broader Middle East," said Smyth.
High-Maintenance Asset
Russia's military intervention in Syria in 2015 changed the tide of the war. Moscow's devastating aerial campaigns against rebel positions helped the Syrian Army regain swaths of territory and keep Assad in power.
Moscow's Syria campaign came a year after its invasion of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula as well as its support for separatist forces in Ukraine's east.
Moscow capitalized on its involvement in both Syria and Ukraine to sell itself as a power capable of challenging the United States, NATO, and the West in general while expanding its global reach from the Mediterranean to Africa and Latin America.
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Syria became more of an asset for Moscow, analysts say, while also presenting the challenge of maintaining military campaigns on two fronts.
With the anticipated fall of Russian military assets in Syria following the collapse of Assad's government, the task has become even more daunting.
Russia is already heavily invested in a major counteroffensive to regain captured territory in its southwestern Kursk region that it lost to Ukraine, to the point that it is relying on help from North Korean troops. At the same time, it is trying to take as much territory as it can in Ukraine's east before possible peace talks.
Russian military facilities along the Mediterranean coast in western Syria could be overrun by militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, and its allies.
Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says Russia simply does not have the same firepower at its disposal to protect its assets in Syria.
"It is important to remember that Russia has to deal with its larger war in Ukraine now compared to when they first went in Syria in 2015," Zelin said.
"Russia also has its assets fighting in sub-Saharan Africa, too. And unlike a decade ago, when Russia had the Wagner Group led by [the deceased Yevgeny] Prigozhin...Russia doesn't have the same level of capacity or capability to deal with this now in the same way."
Zelin said losing the Tartus naval base, in particular, would be an "extremely huge loss for Russia."
"It's Russia's only warm-water port that it can use for its naval activities and power projection," he said. "Losing it would essentially cut Russia out of the core of the Middle East."
Moscow did not send ground troops to help Damascus, which fell to the HTS and its allies on December 8. Russia has conducted dozens of air strikes since the militants launched their offensive against Assad's forces in late November, but Moscow's limited intervention did little to stop the rebel advance.
Russia will pay a huge price for its failure in Syria, analysts say.
The fall of Assad is a "major blow to Russia's claim of still being a global power in terms of sustaining military and political influence abroad," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
From there, actors in other regions such as Latin America and Africa might "start rethinking their ties and their reliance on Russia as well," he said.
Syrian Rebels 'Liberating' Homs, Eye Damascus As Assad Regime Hangs In Balance
Syrian rebels led by Islamist militants have entered the central city of Homs as they close in on Damascus while the country’s main allies -- Russia and Iran -- scrambled to protect the regime of authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad and their own assets in the country.
Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, said late on December 7 that the insurgent fighters were "in the final moments of liberating" Homs, a city of 775,000 people.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Experts said the future of the Assad regime was hanging in the balance -- and that, if it fell, it would also represent a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.
Media reports said many residents of Damascus were stocking up on supplies as thousands were attempting to leave the country through the border with Lebanon -- itself a war-torn nation in the increasingly chaotic Middle East.
As fighting on the ground and rebel gains intensified, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey held emergency talks in Doha, Qatar, on December 7 calling for an end to hostilities in the most serious challenge to Assad’s rule in years.
The U.S. State Department told RFE/RL that Washington was closely monitoring the situation on the ground in Syria.
A spokesperson said the United States and its partners and allies urged that civilians, including members of minority groups, be protected.
The spokesperson said it was time to negotiate an end to the Syrian conflict consistent with principals established in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The spokesperson added that the refusal of the Assad regime to engage in the process has directly led to the current situation.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that “Assad regime forces have collapsed and Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces.”
Russia has multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin’s actions in Africa.
The ISW said that Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the base, “but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.”
The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats blog said the Assad regime “faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces.”
It added that “Russia will face logistic challenges that will undermine its Africa operations if it loses its footprint in Syria.”
Mark Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason University who focuses on Russia and the Middle East, told RFE/RL that the Kremlin risks losing its air assets in Syria if it can’t agree with Turkey on the use of its airspace.
“In one sense, the Turkish government might be happy to grant permission as the more the Russian Air Force is out of Syria, the happier Ankara will be,” he said.
"Russia would also face difficulties relocating its warships because they would need Turkey's permission to get into the Black Sea. They would have to go through NATO waters," he added.
Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the United States “should have nothing to do” with the war in Syria, where a small contingent of U.S. forces remain deployed in some areas.
"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” he wrote on the Truth Social platform.
“THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Fast-moving developments on the ground were difficult to confirm, but media outlets quoted witnesses as well as rebel and Syrian army sources as saying militant fighters were continuing to make large gains on December 7 in their effort to topple Assad.
Some reported signs of panic in Damascus, with shortages of critical supplies, although the government said Assad was at work as usual in the capital.
Government forces and their Russian allies appear to have failed in their attempt to halt the rebel push toward Homs, which stands at an important intersection between the capital, Damascus, and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. Homs is 140 kilometers from the capital.
Witnesses and army sources told Reuters and other news agencies that rebels had entered Homs amid reports that government forces had pulled out. Celebrations were reported in some areas of the city.
Homs Province is Syria’s largest in size and borders Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan. The city is also home to one of Syria’s two state-run oil refineries.
The AFP news agency quoted security sources as saying hundreds of Syrian government troops, some injured, had fled across the border into Iraq.
The surprising offensive was launched last week by a coalition of rebel groups led by the Islamist HTS faction.
Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country's consent.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs toward the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of the Russian air and naval bases.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he “wasn’t in the business of guessing.”
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
Following the foreign ministers' meeting in Doha, Lavrov said -- referring to HTS rebels -- that it was "inadmissible to allow terrorist groups" to take control of Syrian territory and that Russia would oppose them with all means possible.
Since the rebels seized control of Aleppo a week ago, they have moved on to capture other major cities with Assad’s forces providing little resistance.
Besides capturing Aleppo in the north, Hama in the center, and Deir al-Zor in the east, rebels rose up in southern Suweida and Deraa, saying on December 6 they had taken control of the two cities and posting videos showing insurgent celebrations there.
Taking Deraa and Suweida in the south could allow a concerted assault on the capital, Damascus, the seat of Assad's power, military sources said.
Video posted online showed protesters in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana chanting and tearing down a statue of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, when his son took power.
Golani, the HTS leader, told CNN in an exclusive interview on December 5 from Syria that Assad’s government was bound to fall, propped up only by Russia and Iran.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” he said. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.”
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Rebels Advance Toward Homs As Thousands Flee
Russian forces bombed a key bridge and highway to try and slow a lightning advance by rebels toward the Syrian city of Homs as thousands fled the area.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said civilians were fleeing from Homs towards the Mediterranean coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, strongholds of the government and the site of Russian air and naval bases.
The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and deal losses to the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
A Syrian Army officer was quoted by Reuters as saying that Russian bombing overnight had destroyed the Rastan bridge along the key M5 highway linking Homs to Hama, another city the rebels captured a day earlier.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
HTS is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
In his first media interview in several years, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the group's leader, told CNN the goal "remains to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad regime, and it is our right to use all available means to achieve this goal."
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria, and Iran were to meet on December 6 to discuss the situation, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the top diplomats from Moscow, Tehran, and Ankara will meet in Qatar on December 7.
The state news agency TASS reported on December 6 that Russia's embassy in Syria had urged Russian nationals to leave the country due to the situation.
What To Expect In 2025
The New Year has every potential to be momentous, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, pledging to bring an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, along with ongoing conflict in the Middle East and tensions between China and Taiwan. Ray Furlong speaks to RFE/RL journalists about what to expect in their patches.
- By Frud Bezhan
Syrian Militants' Capture Of Key City A 'Game-Changer'
Militants have seized control of a second major city in Syria in what experts say is a turning point in the country’s 13-year civil war.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group and its allies captured the key city of Hama on December 5, just days after taking over the country's second city, Aleppo.
The lightning advance is a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad, who has relied on key allies Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.
The fall of Hama "illustrates that this offensive has staying power and is not just a blitzkrieg," said Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute.
Hama is key to the defense of the capital, Damascus, and the gateway to Syria's coastal cities -- the heartland of the Alawites, the sect of Shi’ite Islam to which Assad and many of his supporters belong. The coast is also home to a strategic Russian naval base and air base.
"It makes it easier [for the militants] to potentially take over Damascus," Zelin said.
Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies and Shi'ite militias, said the fall of Hama was a "game-changer," with the militants "demonstrating that the Assad military machinery is a shell."
Still, despite losing two key cities in little over a week, Assad is not yet facing an existential crisis, experts say.
Syrian government forces -- who suffer from low morale and poor pay as well as dysfunction in the chain of command -- still control Homs, the country’s third city, and the capital.
As the militants push further south to "the core territories of the regime," Zelin said, they will face stiffer resistance.
Assad has relied heavily on Tehran and Moscow to shore up his forces. But both countries have been distracted by their own crises.
Since 2013, Iran deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
Russia’s aerial campaigns against rebel positions since 2015 helped the Syrian Army and Iran-backed militias regain swaths of territory.
Moscow is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine. Iran has been focused on other conflicts in the Middle East, including in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.
The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, another key player in the Syrian conflict and ally of Damascus, has been severely weakened after a yearlong war with Israel.
Moscow and Tehran have been slow in getting more support to Assad. Russia has intensified air strikes on militant-held areas and Iran-backed Shi’ite militias have headed to the front lines.
But it is unclear if that will be enough to stop the advance of the HTS, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, and its allies.
"Iran requires air support for its militias and recruits, but Russia is having trouble providing it due to Ukraine," Smyth said.
"Additionally, the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war had been extraordinarily costly for Iran's command and control apparatus in Syria that relied on Hezbollah. It will be a slower-burning process than before."
- By RFE/RL
Syrian Army Says It Has Withdrawn From Key City After Rebel Advance
The Syrian Army said it was redeploying troops "to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat" after Islamist-led rebels entered the key city of Hama, another loss for the country's president, Bashar al-Assad, as well as his allies in Russia and Iran.
"Over the past few hours, with the intensification of confrontations between our soldiers and terrorist groups...these groups were able to breach a number of axes in the city and entered it," a Syrian Army statement said on December 5.
Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, is key to the defense of Damascus and the gateway to the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, the former being home to a strategic Russian naval base.
Syrian and Russian forces had shelled the rebels a day earlier and used air strikes to try and stop their advance.
"With that (advance in Hama), Assad's in real trouble. Homs is next & its countryside is FAR more amenable to facilitating an opposition advance," Charles Lister, a senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, wrote on X.
The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made major advances over the past several days, including the capture of Aleppo, the country's largest city, as well as 14 central villages and towns, and gotten as close as 35 kilometers from the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
Syria turned over the air base to Russia in 2015 as Moscow moved in to help Damascus turn the tide of a four-year civil war in its favor.
Besides HTS, the rebels also include an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The United Nations has said tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting.
Civilians In The Crosshairs As Russia Scrambles To Stop Militant Offensive In Syria
The footage is striking, stark -- and familiar -- from both Syria and Ukraine.
In Syria’s Idlib Province, one man sprays foam on a tangle of flaming wreckage as others run down a rubble-strewn street and into a heavily damaged hospital corridor. At a camp for displaced people, a resident says he pulled the dead bodies of five people from the debris after what he says was a Russian air strike.
“May God accept them as martyrs,” he said of the victims in a video filmed by the Associated Press.
In 2015, when Russia intervened in the civil war in Syria, its air strikes were the most crucial part of a campaign that was instrumental in averting a potential government defeat and keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power.
In addition to propping up an ally, Russia’s first major military foray outside the former Soviet Union in decades increased Moscow’s clout in the Middle East and beyond. It was a slap in the face of the United States and the West, which despised Assad for his human rights record and wanted him out.
Those gains for Russian President Vladimir Putin came at an enormous cost for Syrian civilians, who were often the victims of the devastating air strikes despite Moscow’s claim that it only targets what it calls “terrorists.” Estimates of overall civilian deaths since the war began in 2011 range from more than 300,000 to over 600,000.
Now, it’s happening again, as Assad’s government and Russia scramble to stop a surprise offensive led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.
The HTS and allied groups have captured most of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, in the biggest push by government opponents since a cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020 led to a relative lull in the war.
“Russia presided over very extensive civilian damage in Syria in the past, and there is no reason to believe that it will be any different this time,” Jenny Mathers, an expert on Russian politics and security and a senior lecturer at Aberystwyth University, said in written comments to RFE/RL.
Accounts and images from Idlib -- a rebel and militant stronghold in northwestern Syria -- and elsewhere since the offensive began late November appear to bear that out.
Video geo-confirmed by RFE/RL
Russian air strikes damaged a cluster of four hospitals and a health administration building in Idlib on December 2, according to the White Helmets, a rescue organization operating in opposition-held parts of Syria.
Video geo-confirmed by RFE/RL
Photos and footage showed burning vehicles, clouds of smoke, buildings damaged inside and out, and streets strewn with dust and debris.
Video geo-confirmed by RFE/RL
“Most of the strikes have seemed to be directed at assets which may be considered crucial to [Russia’s] operational objectives,” Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in written comments to RFE/RL.
“However, Russia has never shown a real particular concern for civilian casualties, especially in rebel-held areas,” she added.
In part, that’s because Russia’s air forces are “not amazing at dynamic targeting,” Grajewski wrote.
But she suggested that Russia has also shown a lack of concern for civilian life with its “prior siege tactics in eastern Ghouta and Aleppo during the earlier stages of the campaign -- not to mention Ukraine.”
'An Ad Hoc Response'
Since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces have frequently hit apartment buildings, private homes, and public places such as supermarkets and shopping malls in cities and towns across the country.
The missile and drone attacks have killed and wounded civilians daily.
Russia has also targeted crucial civilian facilities, such as power plants and other energy infrastructure.
Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics and security, said that for the most part, Russia “neither deliberately targets civilians nor avoids them: if they are in the way of a strike deemed operationally necessary, so be it.”
“That said, sometimes they do deliberately target civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, power stations and water plants, in order to drive people out of areas they wish to depopulate,” he added in written comments.
But he said that in terms of tactics and aims, the current Russian bombings in Syria differ from its air campaign against Ukraine.
In Syria, “this is an ad hoc emergency response to a crisis, in Ukraine, a deliberate strategy of degrading the critical national infrastructure,” said Galeotti, who is an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies.
“However, they certainly reflect a common doctrine, a way of war that regards civilian casualties as inevitable -- and sometimes necessary,” he added.
- By RFE/RL
Erdogan Calls For More Diplomacy In Talks With Putin On Revived Conflict In Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the conflict in northern Syria in a phone call on December 3 to discuss the renewed fighting.
A statement from Erdogan’s office after the call said Syria should not become a source of greater instability.
"President Erdogan emphasized that while Turkey continues to support the territorial integrity of Syria, it also strives for a just and permanent solution in Syria," Erdogan told Putin in their conversation on December 3, according to the statement from Erdogan's office posted on X.
He also said it is important to open more space for diplomacy in the region and the Syrian regime must engage in the political solution process, according to the statement.
Erdogan vowed Turkey will maintain its determined stance on the fight against the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the United States, and its "extensions,” who are trying to take advantage of the recent developments in Syria, the statement said.
Erdogan and Putin spoke as Syrian rebels advanced against government forces after capturing Aleppo last week. The rebels pushed close on December 3 to the major city of Hama, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the rebels said.
The Syrian Observatory said on December 3 that the toll from the rebel offensive in the north had risen to 602 dead, including 104 civilians.
An attack on Hama would ramp up pressure on Assad, whose Russian and Iranian allies have scrambled to support him against the revived rebellion. The city has remained in government hands since civil war erupted in 2011.
A statement from Syria's army command said its forces were striking "terrorist organizations" in north Hama and Idlib provinces with Russian air support.
The Kremlin said Putin stressed the need for a "speedy end to the terrorist aggression against the Syrian state by radical groups." Both leaders noted the importance of further close coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the matter, a Kremlin statement said.
"The two presidents will continue to be in contact with each other in the context of seeking steps to de-escalate the crisis," the statement said.
The Syrian civil war had been mostly dormant for years until a major offensive by militants in northwestern Syria revived the conflict.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies last week seized control of most of Aleppo and the surrounding countryside, marking the biggest offensive in years.
HTS is a militant Islamist group that seeks to establish a state in Syria governed by Islamic law. The U.S.-designated terrorist organization has between 5,000 and 10,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
The conflict has pitted Moscow and Tehran against Turkey, which supports armed groups involved in the HTS-led offensive.
Russia's ambassador to the United Nations late on December 3 accused Ukrainian intelligence services of aiding the HTS.
Rebels fighting with HTS are "openly flaunting" that they are supported by Ukraine, Vasily Nebenzya told the UN Security Council.
The envoy said there was an "identifiable trail" showing Ukraine's GUR military intelligence service was "providing weapons to fighters" and claimed Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are training HTS fighters for combat operations, including against Russian troops in Syria.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said earlier that Russia and Iran "bear the main responsibility" for the recent escalation in fighting. It also noted Ukrainians were being targeted on a nightly basis by Iranian-designed drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies in Iran "continue to make every effort not to lose control over the puppet Syrian regime, which is associated by the majority of Syrians with inhuman cruelty, tyranny, and crimes," the ministry said on December 2.
There are indications the conflict could escalate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on December 3 in an interview with a Qatari news outlet that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus asked.
Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani said Baghdad would not be "a mere spectator" in Syria and blamed Israeli military strikes on the Syrian government for the rebel advance, his office said.
Compounding Assad's problems, fighters from a U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led coalition battled government forces in the northeast, both sides said, opening a new front along a vital supply route.
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and dpa
- By Kian Sharifi and
- Frud Bezhan
The Key Players In Syria's Reignited Civil War
Syria's devastating 13-year civil war was mostly dormant for years.
But a major offensive by militants in northwestern Syria has revived the conflict and dragged in regional powers, including Russia.
Since late November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies have seized control of most of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, and the surrounding countryside.
The offensive poses a major threat to President Bashar al-Assad, who has maintained his grip on power with the backing of key allies Russia and Iran.
The conflict has pitted Moscow and Tehran against Turkey, which supports armed groups involved in the HTS-led offensive.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
HTS is a militant Islamist group that seeks to establish a state in Syria governed by Islamic law. Many of its members are followers of Salafism, an ultraradical sect under Sunni Islam.
The group first appeared in 2012 under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.
Based in the northwestern province of Idlib, it later changed its name several times and distanced itself from Al-Qaeda. In 2017, it merged with other opposition groups to form HTS.
A U.S.-designated terrorist organization since 2018, the HTS has between 5,000 and 10,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
HTS is allied with several smaller militant Islamist groups, including Faylaq al-Sham, Jaysh al-Izza, Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, and the Turkistan Brigade. The latter is made up of foreign fighters from China and Central Asia.
Turkey-Backed Syrian National Army
Turkey, Syria's northern neighbor, is a major player in the conflict.
Ankara supports the Syrian National Army (SNA), a rebel group involved in the ongoing offensive in northern Syria. Turkey also has some influence over HTS, experts say.
The main target of the SNA has been the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The SNA recently seized control of Tel Rifaat, a predominately Kurdish town in northern Syria. The Kurds are a long-oppressed ethnic minority in Arab-majority Syria.
Since 2016, Turkey has launched several cross-border ground operations against the SDF, a key Western ally in the campaign against the Islamic State (IS) extremist group.
The SDF is a coalition that includes the Kurdish People's Protection Units, or YPG. Turkey views the YPG as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey and the United States.
The United States maintains around 900 troops in southeastern Syria along the border with Jordan and Iraq.
Iran
Iran has a longstanding relationship with Syria, where it has significantly boosted its influence since the civil war erupted in 2011.
Tehran intervened militarily in 2013 and played a key role in shoring up Assad's forces. It deployed hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to recruit and train tens of thousands of local and foreign Shi'ite fighters.
For Iran, Syria provides a crucial land corridor to the Levant that is considered the logistical backbone of the so-called axis of resistance, Tehran's loose network of regional allies and proxies. Syria is the only other state actor in the axis.
Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said ensuring Assad stays in power is "even more important now for Iran than it was before."
That is because Tehran intends to use the land corridor through Syria to rearm and resupply its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, whose military capabilities were degraded following the recent war with Israel, said Azizi.
Iran has spent billions of dollars to keep Assad in power and is unlikely to ditch its investment, experts say.
Russia
Russia's military intervention in Syria's civil war in 2015 changed the tide of the war. Moscow's aerial campaigns against rebel positions helped the Syrian Army and pro-Iran militias regain swaths of territory but also caused widespread civilian casualties.
"When Russia first intervened in Syria's civil war, it was mainly about supporting an ally in the region, wanting to shore up an existing regime and avoiding instability that would follow its collapse, and wanting to push back against terrorism," said Jenny Mathers, senior lecturer on Russian politics at Aberystwyth University.
But now it is also a matter of pride, Mathers said, because Moscow would "lose face" if the Assad government were to fall after years of Russian support.
Russia has two major military installations in Syria: an air base in Khmeimim and a naval base in Tartus, which provides Moscow access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Experts say losing an ally in Syria would be a blow to Russia's prestige on the international stage and its regional ambitions.
Since the HTS and its allies launched their surprise offensive, Russia has launched dozens of air strikes in areas under the militants' control.
- By RFE/RL
Hezbollah Proclaims Tenuous Cease-Fire With Israel 'Divine Victory'
The leader of Hezbollah has claimed that its cease-fire deal with Israel is a "divine victory" for the Lebanese political party and militant group.
In his first address since the cease-fire took effect on November 27, Naim Qassem said on November 29 that the Iran-backed group had "won because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hezbollah" and weakening the Lebanese "resistance."
Hezbollah, which controls much of southern Lebanon and has representatives in parliament, is designated in its entirety by the U.S. as a terrorist organization but the EU has blacklisted only its military wing.
The cease-fire ended nearly 14 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel ramped up the pressure by launching a ground offensive in southern Lebanon in October and carrying out massive aerial bombardments of Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut and elsewhere.
The truce ends the presence of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel, too, must withdraw its ground forces from Lebanon within 60 days of the deal going into force.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on November 26 warned Hezbollah that Israel would take action if it suspected that Hezbollah had violated the agreement.
On November 29, hours before Qassem made his speech, Israel said it had struck a Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon after detecting militant activity.
The United States and France are overseeing the implementation of the truce, which includes provisions for thousands of Lebanese soldiers moving into southern Lebanon to work with UN peacekeepers and keep Hezbollah away from the Israeli border.
Hezbollah had been launching rockets at northern Israel since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. It said it would stop its attacks only after Israel ended its war in Gaza.
Over the past 14 months, Israel killed nearly the entirety of Hezbollah's leadership, including Qassem's predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, and decimated the group's military arsenal.
Israel has vowed to ensure Iran cannot continue to fund and arm the group, and has warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against facilitating Iranian aid for Hezbollah.
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
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5How Assad's Fall Threatens Russia's Military Influence In Syria -- And Across The Region
6The Wasteland: Shocking New Images From Russian-Occupied Maryinka
7Trump Says Russia, Iran In 'Weakened State,' Calls On Putin To Make Ukraine Deal
8Photo Exclusive: The Soviet-Designed Nuclear Shelters Hidden In Prague's Subway
9Russia Says Syria's Assad Granted Asylum In Moscow
10Ukraine Live Briefing: Russia Targets Clinic, Cafe
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