France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, has secured a clear victory in the first round of parliamentary elections. If the party wins an absolute majority in the July 7 runoff, France would have a far-right government for the first time since World War II.
This result marks another big setback for beleaguered French President Emmanuel Macron, who dissolved parliament and called for snap elections in an attempt to halt the far-right's progress after RN's record gains in the June 6-9 European Parliament elections.
So, What Happens Now?
Even if the second round doesn't lead to a National Rally government, this is perhaps the biggest political turmoil to engulf France in decades.
The key question is whether the RN can secure an absolute majority in the second round in the 577-seat National Assembly, France's lower house of parliament.
Efforts are already under way to form "Republican fronts" -- anti-Le Pen alliances aimed at preventing the RN from gaining a majority. Macron has urged voters who supported his centrist Ensemble alliance, which trailed in third place with about 20 percent, to back "clearly republican and democratic" candidates in constituencies where his party finished third.
Similarly, Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed, part of the second-placed New Popular Front coalition, announced that his alliance would withdraw candidates who finished third in the first round to consolidate the anti-Le Pen vote.
Eric Maurice, a policy analyst at the European Policy Center, said "all will depend on whether the left and center agree to remove candidates who came third and qualified for the second round. The more this happens, the less RN will be able to obtain an absolute majority."
What Are The Possible Outcomes?
Perhaps the most likely outcome, especially given the strong anti-Le Pen campaign, would be RN winning but unable to achieve an absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament and political gridlock. This scenario would pit the far-right against the left in parliament, making it difficult to pass legislation.
If RN did win an absolute majority, it would have the opportunity to impose its nationalist, nativist, and conservative agenda and, according to Maurice, "could jeopardize rule of law in France."
Another scenario could be a government led by Ensemble, the coalition centered around Macron's party. However, RFE/RL's Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak says he is not sure Macron can "muster some sort of government of unity with a technocratic prime minister, as some are hoping for. And if he does, it will be an unstable one that can be voted down quite easily."
What Would An RN Victory Mean For France?
The RN's strong election performance shows the effectiveness of Marine Le Pen's drive to detoxify the party of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, making it more appealing to the average voter in multicultural France.
After taking over the leadership in 2011, Marine Le Pen has changed the party's name from the National Front and tried to purge it of its neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic elements. She even expelled her own father, who has a history of inflammatory language against immigrants, and who once said the Nazi concentration camps were a "detail of history."
However, even if the RN did win the second round, there would still be constraints on the party. France has a semi-presidential system, in which the president and the prime minister share power. The prime minister and cabinet are responsible for managing daily government operations and domestic policy, whereas the president dominates national security and foreign policy and represents the country on the world stage.
Jordan Bardella, the RN's untested co-leader, would become prime minister, awkwardly -- and likely ineffectively -- sharing power with Macron.
And What Would It Mean For The European Union?
For the far right, it could be an opportune moment to influence the European Union. Hungary, led by Viktor Orban's national-conservative Fidesz party for more than a decade, has just begun its six-month stint as holder of the bloc's rotating presidency. Additionally, far-right parties made significant gains in the June 6-9 European Parliament elections, a sign of the growing nationalist and populist sentiments across the 27 countries of the EU.
The RN's influence could test aspects of the EU's Green Deal, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, eliminate pollution, and support sustainable industry. The RN has campaigned against EU environmental regulations, arguing that they harm jobs and French industry.
Immigration remains the RN's primary focus. The party advocates for stricter controls and aims to implement policies that prioritize French nationals for social benefits, housing, and jobs -- measures that are currently illegal under EU law.
It is here, according to Philippe Marliere, a professor of French and European politics at University College London, where RN distinguishes itself from other rightist parties in the EU, for example Orban's Fidesz party.
"Political scientists in France call it far right because it really is far right. If you study its program, it's the unreconstructed far right," he says. "Obsessively nativist, anti-immigration, and also obsessively discussing what is it to be French."
RFE/RL Europe Editor Jozwiak says that the EU is already heading in Le Pen's direction on immigration.
"Walls and barbed wire are commonplace along the EU’s border, and deals are being struck with third countries to send back asylum seekers and to hold them back from coming in the first place," he says.
Significantly, the RN victory in the first round could induce a tactical shift among right-wing parties in the EU. Le Pen's party has moderated its stance on the EU in recent years. Rather than advocating for "Frexit," it now aims to reform the EU from within, aligning the bloc more closely with its right-wing views. Given the RN's success, other right-wing parties across the EU may follow suit.
How Could It Affect The War In Ukraine?
Le Pen is a professed admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, praising him as a defender of traditional European values against globalization and U.S. influence. In 2014, Le Pen supported Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea. And, if it wins power, the RN has promised to halt French deliveries of long-range missiles to Ukraine.
However, Le Pen's position has softened in recent years, condemning Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and proclaiming her support for the Ukrainian people -- all while taking care not to escalate the situation with Russia.
Mark Galeotti, a political analyst and honorary professor at University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies, told RFE/RL that it's unlikely that a France dominated by Le Pen "is going to suddenly break with the mainstream and say, 'We're not going to be supporting Ukraine anymore.'"
However, he adds, that "anything that clips Emmanuel Macron's wings is good news for the Kremlin" in its war against Ukraine, "because Macron has at the moment been trying to present himself as the hawkiest of hawks in Europe, talking about sending ground troops."
And, in Brussels, foot-dragging can sometimes be as effective as outright opposition. UCL professor Marliere says that a French far-right government wouldn't actually need to come out against Ukraine outright to have an affect on EU policy.
The drive for Ukraine entering the bloc would essentially be on on ice.
"You just drag your feet. You make it difficult. You waste time," he says. "And, of course, time is of the essence for Ukraine. They need weapons now and they need support now, so expect something much more messy, much more difficult for Europe."
