There had been some speculation that the incumbent Georgian president, Salome Zurabishvili, would refuse to leave the presidential palace even after her successor was inaugurated.
In the end, that didn't happen. Zurabishvili, who has become the moral voice for thousands of anti-government protesters, chose to go peacefully -- quickly but certainly not quietly.
As Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former soccer player and right-wing populist, was sworn in as the country's new leader on December 29, Zurabishvili spoke to opposition protesters outside the presidential palace.
While she was leaving the presidential residence, Zurabishvili said, she was still Georgia's "only legitimate president." And she wasn't going without a fight. She maintains that Kavelashvili, who was chosen by an electoral college dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party, is "illegitimate." Her main demand, Zurabishvili told the crowd, was to hold new parliamentary elections.
The October 26 vote is at the heart of Georgia's political standoff, with opposition protesters taking to the streets after Georgian Dream claimed victory. The opposition and international observers have said the elections were not free and fair, with alleged irregularities inflating the ruling party's share of the vote.
Convincing the Georgian government to hold new elections won't be easy. While Georgian Dream officials have accepted there were a few violations, the party, which has been widely accused of democratic backsliding, has maintained the elections were free and fair. And Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has said the legal grounds for calling repeat elections have been exhausted.
A deal could be in the realms of possibility, perhaps with Zurabishvili abandoning her claim as the legitimate head of state in return for new elections and an amnesty for those protesters in jail or facing criminal charges. However, new elections would be far too risky for the ruling party to contest, particularly against a newly mobilized and passionate opposition.
The Georgian government will also be under increased international pressure. On December 27, the United States said it had slapped fresh sanctions on Moscow-friendly billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, a former prime minister and the founder of the Georgian Dream party, for undermining Georgia's democracy for the "benefit of the Russian Federation." Earlier in December, the United States placed visa bans on some government ministers and law enforcement officials.
The European Union has followed suit, agreeing to suspend visa-free travel for Georgian officials holding diplomatic passports. The bloc has also frozen 30 million euros ($31 million) in financial support to Georgia’s Defense Ministry.
Ongoing Protests
More challenging for the government than international sanctioning, however, will be the pressure from the streets. The protests, which were reignited in November when the government announced the postponement of EU accession talks, don't show any signs of withering. Ahead of today's inauguration, Georgian anti-government protesters formed a human "chain of unity," which snaked around downtown Tbilisi. Even bigger protests are expected in the coming days.
If Georgian authorities continue their brutal crackdown on protesters, or even imprison Zurabishvili, this could lead to even more civil strife and political instability. Before the inauguration, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze spoke of arresting the 72-year-old should she refuse to leave the presidential palace. That would be a risky move for the Georgian government, emboldening the street protests and isolating the country even more internationally.
The Georgian authorities might simply choose to wait it out, preferring political deadlock and fending off legal challenges from the opposition. While Zurabishvili says she has spoken to incoming U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, it is unclear how his administration, which is expected to pursue a more isolationist foreign policy, will respond.
Georgia is also entering the holiday season, with New Year's celebrations on December 31, Orthodox Christmas on January 7, and Orthodox New Year's a week later. No doubt, the government will be hoping that Georgians choose to stay home with their families rather than braving the cold out on the streets.
