Preobrazhensky: Putin And Trump Speak Convenient Language Of Deals And Interests
By Aleksei Alexandrov
While Donald Trump did not outline his specific policy about Russia, the Kremlin sees him as a convenient counterpart to Vladimir Putin for possible negotiations, Russian political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky told Current Time, the Russian-language TV and digital network run by RFE/RL.
“Obviously, compared to Kamala Harris, many in the Russian high offices are rather happy about this: He suits them better as a more understandable guy. Trump himself said that Putin [and Chinese President Xi Jinping] know that he is crazy, and that is why they are afraid of him. In fact, Putin knows that he is pretty crazy -- about the same as Putin himself -- and therefore speaks to him in an understandable language of deals and interests,” says Preobrazhensky.
According to the political analyst, even if the confrontation between the U.S. and Russia will exacerbate, Putin and Trump will be able to de-escalate.
“There may be a stab in the back, a downing of a Russian fighter jet, and whatever else, and if we find ourselves on the brink of a nuclear war, they will at least speak an understandable language. How to talk to Kamala Harris and her entourage is completely incomprehensible to the Kremlin, because for them they are just aliens, people with completely different values, with completely different attitudes,” he says.
A listener of RFE/RL's Radio Farda calls in:
"I congratulate Mr. Trump from the bottom of my heart. I stayed up all night to see his victory. I hope the world wins...goodness prevails, and that we come to love each other. Let’s end the wars, stop killing people. [Iran Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei is executing our people in droves -- this bloodthirsty criminal."
The president of Bulgaria:
Trump Wins The U.S. Presidency
BREAKING: Donald Trump has secured the needed 270 Electoral College votes to officially win the U.S. presidential election, beating Democratic challenger Kamala Harris.
Congratulations from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev:
"I would like to extend my heartfelt congratulations to you on your re-election as President of the United States of America. Your decisive victory in the recent elections is a clear reflection of the trust and confidence that the American people place in your leadership and political vision.
"The Republic of Azerbaijan places great importance on the continued development of its relationship with the United States. During your first term in office, you demonstrated unwavering commitment to strengthening the bonds of friendship and cooperation between our two nations. I am pleased to note that, under your leadership, our partnership has grown dynamically, based on mutual trust and shared interests. This collaboration has been particularly evident in our joint efforts to address global challenges, combat terrorism, promote international peace and security, and enhance Europe's energy security. I would also like to highlight your steadfast support for Azerbaijan’s energy strategy, which has been invaluable to our progress.
"Looking ahead, we are eager to further expand our cooperation in all areas—political, economic, security, energy, and the green and digital transitions. We are confident that your second term will present new opportunities for deepening our partnership, as we explore additional avenues for collaboration and mutual benefit.
"Azerbaijan remains committed to fostering peace and stability in the South Caucasus, and I am certain that our continued joint efforts will strengthen the friendship between our countries, advancing the national interests and security of both Azerbaijan and the United States."
More reactions from Ukraine:
Ukrainian journalist Yanina Sokolova:
"We have to do our own thing. If we don't change and start relying on ourselves, we will die."
"We will live in a Trump world, as, unfortunately, I predicted. Bitcoin has reached its all-time high. Ukrainian Eurobonds are also expected to rise. The market is waiting for the war in Ukraine to end. On what terms? And will it work? We'll see, but I am very skeptical that the war will end quickly, in 24 hours, as Trump promised. It will definitely not be boring."
-- Compiled by Sashko Shevchenko
'Maximum Pressure 2.0' And Iran's Need For 'Radical' Shifts In Policy
By Kian Sharifi
As we mentioned earlier, Trump’s first term in office (2017-21) saw the U.S. adopt what the Trump administration dubbed the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. This included ripping up the landmark nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, the reimposition of crippling economic sanctions, and even killing Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani.
Unless Iran makes serious changes to its foreign and national security policies, the next four years could be even tougher.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told RFE/RL that Iran has become more adept at evading sanctions and its nuclear program is more advanced, “but its security situation is rapidly deteriorating vis-à-vis Israel with possible further involvement of the U.S."
As such, he argued, Iran “is going to have to contemplate radical changes in its foreign policy and national security in the coming weeks, months, and years in order to stave off bigger crises that could come as a consequence of a Trump presidency.”
Sabet said a former Trump official not too long ago told a closed gathering that a second Trump presidency would see the implementation of a “maximum pressure 2.0” policy whose aim will be “containment and regime weakening.”
He added that Trump’s incoming administration will want its new campaign to pressure Iran to be “a kind of policy in perpetuity,” rather than a string of measures that will last for just a few years.
What A Trump Win Could Mean For China
By Reid Standish
It's hard to say if Beijing had a preferred candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but the prospect of dealing with another U.S. administration led by Donald Trump brings several obvious challenges for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
For China, Trump is the ultimate wild card.
His previous term saw a trade war, with him slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods and launching a global campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei. On the campaign trail, he threatened upwards of 60 percent tariffs on all imports from China and has spoken openly of his desire to ramp up another trade war. None of that is good news for Beijing — especially in the short term — as it grapples with a slowing economy and weighs how to deploy a fiscal stimulus.
Chinese officials have so far not reacted to the November 5 U.S. election, but if there is upside for China in a Trump victory, it's in the long term.
Chinese analysts have sometimes seen Trump's divisiveness at home and his "America First" brand of foreign policy as a net gain for Beijing as it tries to overtake Washington on the global stage and weaken its alliances.
On issues like Ukraine, where Trump has called for ending the war as quickly as possible, or Taiwan, where he said the island nation isn't paying Washington enough money for the U.S. government's military and political support, China may be able to capitalize on Trump's less traditional approach.
But while that may create new opportunities for Beijing, it could also lead to a more pronounced U.S. military footprint in the Indo-Pacific and create new headaches for Beijing in Asia.
Read more in my China In Eurasia Briefing here.
'Maximum Pressure' On Iran?
If Trump returns to the White House, will he continue with the same approach, leading to a new chapter of "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran? Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project and a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, told Radio Farda:
"Those close to Mr. Trump and the team currently preparing for his potential second term believe in the maximum pressure strategy. They argue that it didn’t achieve its goals last time only because there wasn’t enough time, the pressure didn’t reach its peak, and the Biden administration didn’t enforce it strongly. They therefore emphasize that Washington should first revive this policy, pursuing it with tougher pressure, and reactivating UN Security Council sanctions with support from the European Union."
-- Saeid Jafari
Bosnian separatist leader hosts reception over announcement of Trump's win:
By Ajla Obradovic
Milorad Dodik, president of the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska, addressed citizens in front of his office in Banja Luka after Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. election.
Standing beside him were Bosnian Presidency member Željka Cvijanović and ministers in Republika Srpska's government. RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports that a significant portion of the crowd consisted of people employed in entity institutions or members of parties in coalition with Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats.
"This is a victory for the America we believe in, an America that stands for peace," Dodik said in a brief speech outside the building.
The crowd waved flags of Republika Srpska, Serbia, and Russia.
Dodik has been under sanctions by the United States and the United Kingdom for some time. He was added to the U.S. OFAC blacklist in 2017 for "obstructing the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement." Dodik was placed under additional sanctions in January 2022.