No Congrats: Why The Cold Shoulder From Putin?
By Steve Gutterman
As Donald Trump’s victory was shifting from probability to fact, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters he was unaware of any plans for Russian President Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on the win.
Putin likes to keep everyone guessing – like when he fooled nobody by saying in September that he prefers Kamala Harris. So he could still weigh in, but to refrain from joining the chorus of formal congratulations pouring in from world leaders may have been a no-brainer. Here’s why:
Putin, the Kremlin, and the state-controlled media have demonized the United States and portrayed the full-scale invasion he launched against Ukraine in 2022 as part of a civilizational struggle against an aggressive and morally bankrupt West.
In that context, Putin wants to avoid any impression that he cared about the U.S. election result, or that he is more likely to soften up and make concessions on any contentious issue with Trump in power than with a Biden or Harris administration.
The desire to appear aloof is probably even stronger following reports that Trump secretly sent COVID test equipment to Putin during the pandemic and that the two have spoken several times since Trump left office – something Trump’s campaign denied.
With Trump saying repeatedly that he would broker an end to the war in Ukraine very quickly if elected, Putin may be particularly eager not to look like he’s open to a peace deal on anything other than Russia’s terms.
Baltic States Stress Importance Of U.S.-NATO Relations
By Kristina Zakurdaeva
The presidents of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have congratulated Donald Trump for his victory in the U.S. presidential election. Their messages were focused on regional security and developing stronger cooperation with Washington:
“I look forward to working with you to strengthen bilateral relations and transatlantic partnership. Europe needs strong US and the US needs strong Europe. Latvia is and will be a strong and reliable partner of the US,” said Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs on X.
“Congratulations @realDonaldTrump on winning the U.S. Presidential election! U.S. is a key strategic ally of Lithuania. We both take our security seriously. Lituania currently allocates 3.5% GDP to defense & will continue increasing our investment. Transatlantic unity is crucial!” wrote the president of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda.
Estonian President Alar Karis also stressed the importance of cooperation in global and regional security: “Congratulations to President-elect @realDonaldTrump! #Estonia values its enduring alliance with the United States, founded on shared democratic ideals and a joint commitment to global security. We look forward to continuing to strengthen our close cooperation in years to come.”
For the Baltic states, which border Russia and are highly concerned with regional volatility, U.S.-NATO relations are essential. With Trump’s election, American membership and financial participation in NATO – a critical security ally of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – might be at stake.
Even before his first presidential term, Trump highly criticized European countries that allocate less than 2 percent of their GDP on security. Trump consistently pushed them to increase defense spending and threatened to leave the alliance unless European members do it.
“The United States should pay its fair share, not everybody else's fair share. NATO has to treat the U.S. fairly, because if it's not for the United States, NATO literally doesn't even exist," said Trump in an interview with the British politician Nigel Farage in spring 2024.
Ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Nausėda called other European states to increase their defense spending amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“With war on Europe's soil & Russia gearing up for a long-term NATO confrontation, every European NATO ally needs to allocate at least 2% of GDP to defense. Commitment starts here. Europe can't rely solely on the US for security. We must grow our own muscles,” wrote Nausėda in a thread on X.
While Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all contribute around 3 percent of their GDP, they are the ones that are concerned about their security and possible expansion of the war with Russia the most.
What Will A Trump Presidency Mean For Ukraine? For Now, It Means Jitters.
By Mike Eckel
During his first presidency, Donald Trump had a troubled relationship with Ukraine -- and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in particular.
Trump’s first impeachment was sparked by a phone call in July 2019, in which he appeared to condition U.S. military aid on Zelenskiy pushing a criminal investigation into the son of Joe Biden, who was then a former vice president, and Biden himself.
Fast forward five years: Trump is returning to the White House, and his misgivings about Ukraine – and its beleaguered defense against Russia’s all-out invasion – could very well become formal policy for his new presidency.
Meeting with Zelenskiy in New York two months before the November 5 election, Trump angrily described the impeachment as a “Democratic hoax.” More problematic for Ukraine’s defenses was Trump’s insistence that he would end the war – now in its 33rd month – “very quickly.”
That will happen in part, Trump said, because of what he said was his “good relationship” with Russian leader, Vladimir Putin.
“I think if we win [the election] we’re going to get it resolved very quickly," Trump said.
Putin, meanwhile, has shown no genuine interest in ending the fighting on anything other than Russia’s maximalist terms, which some Ukrainians fear amount to capitulation or even subjugation.
On the campaign trail, Trump also derided Zelenskiy, calling him “the greatest salesman” and criticizing the sizable supplies of U.S. weapons and military equipment – worth $56 billion to date – to help Kyiv withstand the Russian invasion.
“Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion,” Trump said in July.
For his part, Zelenskiy, who has considerable bipartisan support in Congress, has sought to build bridges with the Republican leader, and he quickly congratulated Trump on his victory.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can…bring [a] just peace in Ukraine closer,” he wrote.
There’s a reason they’re nervous in Kyiv.
"Cooperation with the U.S. is also one of our priorities. We will see how we will continue the cooperation after the official election results are confirmed. Currently, there is a political dialogue with the U.S., and we are working on a strategic agreement with the United States.
"Kyrgyzstan unilaterally terminated its strategic cooperation agreement with the United States in 2015. Since then, the two sides have not signed a new agreement, although negotiations have been ongoing for an extended period."
A banner depicting Ukrainian and U.S. flags in downtown Kyiv on November 6:
"We have contacts with representatives of Donald Trump, maintain good relations with the Republican Party, and I am almost certain — and want to believe — that the USA will firmly uphold the principles on which it was built: peace, human rights, and the rule of law. These are values we are fighting for.
"We heard many declarations during the election campaign, but what will truly matter are the actions, determination, and leadership of the USA on the international stage. I want to believe they will fight for democracy," Tsikhanovskaya said in response to RFE/RL's questions about whether she has congratulated Donald Trump on his victory and how U.S. relations with democratic forces and the current regime might shift under his leadership.
On the prospects for continuing strategic dialogue between democratic forces and the United States, Tsikhanouskaya added: "Our strategic dialogue, which was organized recently, will continue its intensive work. We have many areas of focus, and I don’t expect any changes in this direction with the new administration."
Russian state TV propagandists weigh in on Trump’s victory:
“I think Trump, even before January, will propose a knowingly unfavorable deal on Ukraine, which we will, of course, reject. Donald will shrug and, in his usual style, announce an unprecedented aid package for Zelenskiy’s regime and lift all restrictions on missiles. This won’t change anything either. But it will delay the settlement process,” wrote Evgeny Popov, a Russian politician, journalist, and Duma deputy.
His wife, prominent Russian TV propagandist Olga Skabeeva, with whom Popov co-hosts the TV show 60 Minutes on Russian state TV, simply wrote: “Wow! My congratulations! 47th President of the USA,” posting a screenshot from Fox News projecting Trump as the 47th president of the United States.
-- Mark Krotov
Residents of Kyiv expressed mixed reactions on November 6 after Republican Donald Trump secured victory over his Democratic challenger Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. In comments to RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, they worry that Trump's foreign policy might not consider Ukraine's victory in its struggle against the Russian invasion a top priority:
How Could Trump's Win Impact The Western Balkans?
Cody McClain Brown, a professor at Zagreb University, a native of Oklahoma, speaking with Dragan Stavljanin of RFE/RL's Balkan Service:
"It depends [what Trump’s policy on the Balkans will be]. If Russia tries to exert its influence more in Serbia and in Montenegro, then maybe the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina can become less stable. When it comes to Kosovo, I think his position will be further on hold. Maybe he could support Serbia retaking Kosovo, but it's hard to know because he doesn't express strong opinions about these things.
"He doesn't seem to have a world view other than America first, but America first for Trump seems to just mean Trump first, and so it sort of just depends on where he sees his own interests, which is very unsettling for the rest of the world.
"Maybe the U.S. under Trump will no longer be interested in its position in the Balkans and isn't going to defend it and that allows China or Russia to move in further and destabilize things.
"If Serbia is emboldened through Russia's commitment to Serbia, and if the United States is not interested in defending Kosovo, we move Camp Bondsteel out or something like that, then maybe they would retake it. Again, like I said, I'm sorry to be a broken record here, but [with] Trump, you just don't know because you don't know what's going to attract his interest. Even though his wife is from the Balkans, it doesn't seem to be that interesting. Hopefully, it won't change. I don't imagine it will change, but again I don't know."
-- Compiled by Ajla Obradovic
Europe Braces For Trump's Return
By Rikard Jozwiak
EU officials are bracing themselves for Donald Trump's return to the White House.
They are preparing for the possibility of increased tensions in transatlantic trade and the likelihood that the bloc of 27 member states will have to shoulder a bigger burden of political and financial support for Ukraine.
Plus there's the fact that, in the past, Trump has preferred to deal with regional allies, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, rather than the European Union as a whole.
Speaking to EU officials as Trump was projected to win the U.S. presidential vote early on November 6, the mood was as somber as the Brussels weather was grim.
Read all of Rikard's report here.