Iran Election Blog

For almost three weeks, we have detected and disrupted multiple email-based phishing campaigns aimed at compromising the accounts owned by tens of thousands of Iranian users. These campaigns, which originate from within Iran, represent a significant jump in the overall volume of phishing activity in the region. The timing and targeting of the campaigns suggest that the attacks are politically motivated in connection with the Iranian presidential election on Friday.

Read the whole thing here.

RFE/RL: Do you think the current sanctions approach could turn Iran's population against the United States?

Nasr: I think so because I think people don't think in just black and white. You can dislike your own government and a foreign government at the same time. You can believe that the United States is doing the wrong thing: "Yes, we have a bad government, but you're punishing us and you're turning our country into dust because of that bad government." So, this is not a clean strategy.

I think the Iranian public could look and say that our position is unreasonable, that we're asking them to give up something that many Iranians may take pride in, that they see as a mark of scientific achievement, that they see as the mark of "great power" status, that they see as the protection of the country. That we want that to be given up, but we're not willing to offer anything in return, we're not reasonable. And it's possible that the population will come to gradually blame the U.S. for its policies. We saw that happen in Iraq.

We're not in support of the Iranian public, we're putting pressure on them for something we want and something that they may actually not agree with us [on]. I think the Iranian public is divided on the nuclear issue. That's the best way you can put it -- that not everybody agrees that this is a bad thing and probably many of them buy the regime's line that this is necessary for industry and electricity and the like.

RFE/RL: What is the end goal when dealing with Iran? Ending Iran's sensitive nuclear activities? Or regime change, as Iranian leaders seem to believe?

Crocker: Let me start with the last point. We've tried regime change once in Iran, as you know, with Prime Minister Mosadegh in 1953. That did not turn out well. And I think the seeds of the 1979 revolution were planted in '53. So I definitely do not recommend regime change as a policy for the U.S. or anyone else.

What we would like to see is a change in the policies and behavior of the regime. It's up to the Iranian people to make their own decisions on their government. Regime change imposed from outside through a coup did not work well for the West in Iran and sensitivities among Iranians -- not just the government but the population as well -- of foreign interference are very high, and we need to understand and respect that.

"Despite radical rhetoric, Ahmadinejad did more than all his predecessors to (try to) advance rapprochement with Washington," a source familiar with Iran-U.S. contacts told Reuters. Other Western diplomats confirmed that view, which runs counter to the standard portrayal of the Iranian president as unwilling to compromise on the nuclear program.

On the sidelines of a 2009 meeting in Geneva, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili held bilateral talks with then-U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns, the highest level bilateral U.S.-Iranian meeting in three decades.

Since Ahmadinejad took office there have been "tens of covert meetings between Iranian officials and former U.S. officials in ... the Hague, Geneva, Vienna, Sweden, Tehran, Munich and New York," the source said. Most of those meetings have taken place since Obama arrived in the White House in 2009, sources familiar with them said.

"The Iranian embassy has made the necessary arrangements for the participation of Iranians residing in Syria in the 11th round of presidential election and their voting," Rao'uf Sheibani told reporters in Damascus on Wednesday.

"A polling station will be set up at the venue Islamic Republic of Iran's embassy and two mobile ballot boxes will receive our compatriots' votes in the shrines of Hazrat Zeinab (PBUH) and Hazrat Roqayyeh (PBUH) (the sister and daughter of Shiites' third Imam) in Damascus," he added.