Iran
- By Kian Sharifi
Israel's Limited Attack On Iran Appears Aimed At De-Escalating Conflict
Israel had vowed to make Iran pay for Tehran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack on April 13.
But Israel’s suspected military response early on April 19 appeared to be limited in scale and scope and aimed at de-escalating tensions with Iran.
Tehran said it shot down three quadcopter drones outside the central city of Isfahan, which is home to key military and nuclear facilities. Unnamed U.S. officials said Israel used missiles in the attack.
Experts said the use of small quadcopter drones, which are unable to travel long distances, suggests the attack was carried out from inside Iranian territory.
Israel has not claimed the attack in Isfahan. But experts said the suspected Israeli response sent a clear message to Tehran.
Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s use of quadcopter drones, if confirmed, suggests its aim was to “expose the vulnerability of the Iranian security forces” on their own turf.
Zimmt said the attack was not without its risks, but out of all the options available to Israel, it was possibly the least risky.
“At this stage, deniability is vital to lower the risk. I think that if Israel takes responsibility for what happened -- and there is sometimes this tendency among Israeli politicians – this would make it more difficult, not impossible but more difficult, for Iran not to retaliate.”
Reuters quoted an unnamed Iranian official as saying that Tehran “has no plan to strike back immediately.”
Israel has been accused of previously attacking military sites in Isfahan with small drones. In January 2023, a military factory was hit. Three months later, Iran said it had foiled a drone attack on a Defense Ministry complex in the city.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that if Israel was behind the Isfahan attack, it was carried out in a manner “that carried the least risk of an Iranian retaliation.”
Iran’s April 13 attack was a response to the suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders, including two generals.
Tehran said its attack showed that a “new equation” had been established and that Iran would not let Israeli strikes on Iranian interests abroad go unanswered.
But on the same day as the Isfahan attack, Israel was accused of targeting air defense systems in Syria, a key ally of Tehran where Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has a presence.
Zimmt said Israel wanted to send the message that “first, we retaliated, and second, we attacked in Syria and not just in Iran, meaning we are not ready to accept this so-called ‘new equation’ that the Iranians are trying to force on us.”
Mohammad Zarghami of Radio Farda contributed to this report.
More News
Stripping In Protest? Amnesty Calls for Immediate Release Of Iranian Woman (Video)
Amnesty International has called for the immediate release of a young woman who was arrested after stripping to her underwear outside her Tehran university on November 2. In a statement, Amnesty said "allegations of beatings and sexual violence against her during arrest need independent and impartial investigations." Footage of the incident has been widely shared on social media.
Jewish Man Executed In Iran For Murder He Said Was In Self-Defense
Iran, at a time of rising tensions with Israel, has executed a Jewish man who was convicted of murder, a charge his family rejected saying he acted in self- defense after being attacked.
The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, quoted Hamidreza Karimi, the prosecutor of the western Iranian city of Kermanshah, as saying Arvin Ghahremani, 23, was executed on November 4.
Ghahremani, 18 at the time, was found guilty of stabbing another man to death in 2022 outside a gym in Kermanshah. The victim had owed money to Ghahremani and, according to his family, an altercation broke out over the dispute.
The victim was armed and Ghahremani acted in self-defense, they said, saying he even tried to help keep the victim alive after the altercation.
After being sentenced to death, Ghahrmani's lawyers failed to get the family of the Muslim victim, whose identity was not revealed, to pardon him and spare his life.
Islamic legislation provides for qisas, or equivalent punishment, in murder cases.
However, rights groups have long said that the law discriminates against non-Muslims, who often receive harsher punishments than Muslims convicted of similar offenses.
Ghahremani's lawyers had requested a retrial three different times, but each motion was rejected by Iranian courts.
The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group condemned the execution of Ghahremani, who the group said was 20 years old, not 23.
The group also disputed Ghahremani's guilt, saying he had been attacked with a knife by the victim. It also said that the victim's family initially agreed to spare Ghahremani but changed their mind after finding out he was Jewish.
"Arvin was a Jew, and the institutionalized anti-Semitism in the Islamic republic undoubtedly played a crucial role in the implementation of his sentence," IHR Director Mahmood Amiri-Moghadam said in a statement, adding that the case had "significant flaws."
Jews are a small minority estimated at some 20,000 in Iran, a mainly Shi'ite Muslim nation of nearly 92 million people. Many Jews fled Iran in the aftermath of Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 as the new regime adopted a sharp anti-Israel stance, including not recognizing Israel's right to exist.
Israel and Iran's proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip have been fighting a war over the past year since one of the groups, Hamas, invaded Israel and killed some 1,200 people in an unprovoked attack.
The group, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, also took around 240 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.
- By Kian Sharifi
How Will The U.S. Election Impact Washington's Iran Policy?
The U.S. presidential election on November 5 will probably have a major bearing on Washington’s policy toward Iran.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is likely to continue President Joe Biden’s diplomacy-focused policies, experts say.
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, adopted a policy of “maximum pressure” during his first stint in office and is more likely to embrace a hawkish position, analysts say.
Harris's Calculated Toughness?
In early October, Harris raised eyebrows when she described Iran as Washington’s “greatest adversary” ahead of Russia and China.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said her comments should not be taken at face value. Harris said “what she had to say” for the sake of domestic U.S. policies and to appease the pro-Israel lobby.
Harris’s campaign wants to “position her somewhat to Trump’s right on issues like Iran,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group.
“Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach, pursuing diplomacy without offering large concessions and remaining wary of doing too much and triggering domestic political backlash,” Brew said.
Experts say the conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is engaged in a war with Iran-backed armed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, could lead to Harris devising a more aggressive policy toward Tehran.
Diplomacy with Tehran will remain an option under a Harris presidency, experts say, but any negotiations would likely be centered on regional affairs rather than Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump To Opt For Dialogue Or Detachment?
During his stint in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
But it is unclear if Trump would adopt a hawkish policy toward Iran if reelected, experts say, noting the former president’s unpredictability.
During the campaign, Trump suggested without evidence that Iran was involved in recent attempted assassinations against him and threatened to blow the country “to smithereens.”
But Trump has also said on the campaign trail that he is open to talks with Iran, including over the nuclear deal.
Under a Trump presidency, there would likely be less scope for or interest in diplomacy with Tehran, said Brew.
Brew said there is “a greater willingness to tolerate military action against Iran” among Republicans, particularly in the wake of Israel’s first overt attack on Iran on October 26. But the odds of the United States getting involved in a war with Iran remain low.
“It's difficult for me to see a large war being planned at this moment in American history by any American president,” Vatanka said.
Vatanka said Iran could be more willing to talk to Trump because it may “find it easier to deal” with the former president and entice him “by appealing to his ego.”
Overall, American policy toward Iran would be more reflective of “mainstream American thinking and institutional decision-making consensus” under Harris, Vatanka said, whereas under Trump it would be “more of the inkling and the gut feeling of one man.”
Amnesty Calls For Release Of Iranian Woman Who Removed Clothes In Protest
Amnesty International has called for the immediate release of a young woman who took most of her clothes off during an apparent protest against harassment outside her Tehran university on November 2.
Iranian authorities arrested the female student -- who has not been identified -- after she stripped to her underwear on the street outside the university.
Video footage was first posted by an Iranian student channel, the Amir Kabir newsletter, and then later by the Hengaw rights group, Amnesty International, and others.
“Pending her release, authorities must protect her from torture & other ill-treatment & ensure access to family & lawyer." Amnesty said.
"Allegations of beatings & sexual violence against her during arrest need independent & impartial investigations," it added. "Those responsible must held to account.”
To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
U.S. Says It's Gathering Information On Imprisoned Ex-RFE/RL Journalist In Iran
The United States says it is gathering information about the case of former Radio Farda journalist Reza Valizadeh, a dual citizen, who has been in prison in Iran for the past weeks.
Valizadeh was arrested in late September in Tehran, a source close to the family told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda last month. Valizadeh left his job as a staff member at Radio Farda in November 2022.
In his last post on X on August 13, Valizadeh said he had traveled to Tehran on March 16. He also said he had “unfinished negotiations” with the intelligence branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). It is not clear under what circumstances he wrote this post.
“We are working with our Swiss partners who serve as the protecting power for the United States in Iran to gather more information about this case,” the State Department told AP. “Iran routinely imprisons U.S. citizens and other countries’ citizens unjustly for political purposes. This practice is cruel and contrary to international law.”
RFE/RL said in a statement that it was aware of Valizadeh’s detention in Iran. “We have had no official confirmation of the charges against him, “the statement said, adding: “We are profoundly concerned about the continued arrest, harassment and threats against media professionals by the Iranian regime.”
Iranian officials have not publicly commented on Valizadeh’s arrest.
Iran is routinely accused of arresting dual nationals and Western citizens on false charges to use them to pressure Western countries. In September 2023, Iran released five Americans jailed in Iran in a prisoner swap.
Valizadeh is the first U.S. citizen known to have been arrested since that deal.
Iran is also among the most repressive countries in terms of freedom of press. Reporters Without Borders ranked Iran 176 out of 180 countries in its 2024 World Press Freedom index. The Paris-based media watchdog says Iran is now also one of the world’s biggest jailers of journalists.
- By RFE/RL
Iranian President Says Cease-Fire Could Affect Tehran's Response To Israeli Strike
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said that if a cease-fire were reached by Israel and Tehran-allied groups in the region, the action "could affect the intensity" of any retaliatory strike by Iran’s military, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained his tough stance during a visit to the Lebanese border on November 3, saying the Hezbollah extremist group must be pushed back beyond the Litani River and be prevented from rearming.
Israel for the past several months has been striking suspected sites of Hezbollah -- which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.
Much of Hezbollah’s leadership has been killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and around the capital, Beirut.
The attacks on Hezbollah have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed around than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU.
Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it will continue its attacks until a cease-fire is reached in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks inside Lebanon have killed nearly 3,000 people, according to officials there, and have destroyed much of Gaza, with a reported death toll of 43,341.
Many leaders in the West and elsewhere have feared a wider war erupting in the Middle East, especially with Israel and Iran trading tit-for-tat air strikes against each other. Many are awaiting Tehran’s next move following Israel’s October 26 strike against military sites inside Iran.
"If they [the Israelis] reconsider their behavior, accept a cease-fire, and stop massacring the oppressed and innocent people of the region, it could affect the intensity and type of our response," Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by the IRNA state news agency.
But he added that Tehran "will not leave unanswered any aggression against its sovereignty and security."
Pezeshkian, who took office in late July, has been labeled a moderate by some Western observers of the Iranian political situation.
A day earlier, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened Israel and the United States with “a teeth-shattering response” to recent Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups – which it referred to as its “resistance front” -- in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu said that "I want to be clear: With or without [a cease-fire] agreement, the key to restoring peace and security in the north, the key to bringing our northern residents back home safely, is first and foremost to push Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River, secondly to target any attempt to rearm, and thirdly to respond firmly to any action taken against us."
Israel "will definitely do everything that should be done…whether in terms of military, weapons, or political work," he said.
The Litani River is some 30 kilometers inside Lebanon from the border and would create a buffer zone between Hezbollah forces and Israeli territory, which Netanyahu has insisted upon.
In a report by Axios on November 2, a U.S. official and a former Israeli official said the U.S. administration had warned Tehran in recent days that it won’t be able to restrain Israel should Iran launch another attack against the U.S. ally.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP
How Iran Is Trying To Interfere In The U.S. Election (Video)
U.S. experts say Iran is running a preelection disinformation campaign, using websites partially written by ChatGPT to sow discord in society. So what do these websites look like?
- By RFE/RL
U.S. Warns Iran It Can't 'Hold Israel Back' If New Attack Launched, Axios Reports
The U.S. administration has warned Tehran in recent days that it won’t be able to restrain Israel should Iran launch another attack against the U.S. ally, Axios reported on November 2, citing a U.S. official and a former Israeli official briefed on the matter. After Iran attacked Israel on October 1, in response to a string of Israeli assassinations of Iran-linked figures in the Middle East, the Israelis responded by striking military targets in Iran, although they did not hit nuclear or oil production sites as some people had feared. “We told the Iranians: We won't be able to hold Israel back, and we won't be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one," the unidentified U.S. official said, according to Axios.
Iran's Khamenei Threatens Israel, U.S. With 'Teeth-Shattering' Response
Iran's supreme leader has threatened Israel and the United States with “a teeth-shattering response” to recent Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups – which it referred to as its “resistance front” -- in the Middle East. In a speech on November 2 to mark the 45th anniversary of the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: "We will definitely do everything that should be done…whether in terms of military, weapons, or political work," adding that "the authorities are already doing it." An Israeli air attack on October 26, which targeted military bases and other sites, killed at least five people, according to Iranian officials. Israel said the attacks were in response to a massive Iranian missile and drone attack against Israel on October 1. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By RFE/RL
Pentagon Announces New Deployments To Middle East In Warning To Iran
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East, a Pentagon statement said on November 1.
The forces will begin to arrive in the region in the coming months to replace the departing USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said in the statement.
The announcement comes three weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said he had ordered the Pentagon to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and troops to Israel as part of U.S. efforts to defend its ally and build up positions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“These movements demonstrate the flexible nature of U.S. global defense posture and U.S. capability to deploy worldwide on short notice to meet evolving national security threats,” Ryder said in the statement.
It added that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people.”
The long-range nuclear-capable B-52 bomber has been repeatedly deployed to the Middle East in pointed warnings to Iran. The action announced on November 1 is the second time this month that strategic U.S. bombers will be used to bolster U.S. defenses in the region.
Ryder did not provide the specific number of aircraft and ships that will be moved.
He said the movements were in keeping with U.S. commitments to the protection of U.S. citizens and U.S. forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy.
The moves come as Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas and the war in Lebanon against Hezbollah rage. Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing, and not the political party.
The United States is pressing for cease-fires, while repeatedly saying it will defend Israel and continue to protect the American and allied presence in the region.
With reporting by AP
- By Kian Sharifi
Israel's Attack On Iran Has Left Tehran Offensively And Defensively Weaker
Iran was quick to downplay the impact of Israel's attack on key military sites on its territory on October 26.
But satellite images suggest Israel has degraded Tehran's air-defense and missile-production capabilities, analysts say.
Fabian Hinz of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Israel had dealt a "significant blow" to Iran's ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles.
Ability To Sustain Long-Range Attacks
On October 1, Iran launched its biggest-ever direct attack on Israel, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at its archenemy. Dozens of the missiles, aimed mostly at military sites, penetrated Israel's formidable air defenses.
Israel's retaliatory strikes on October 26 were aimed at hindering Iran's production of solid-propellant ballistic missiles that were used by Tehran in its assault, the "weapons that are of most concern to Israel," Hinz said.
Solid-propellant missiles require fewer personnel and little time to prepare for launch compared to liquid-propellant missiles, Hinz explains, making them ideal for launching volleys in quick succession.
Israel struck missile-production sites around Tehran, including the Parchin military complex, the Khojir military base, the Shahrud missile site, and a factory in the Shamsabad Industrial Zone.
Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense specialist at the global intelligence company Janes, says the full extent of the damage caused to the facilities is still unclear.
But he adds that Israel likely wanted to prevent Iran from being able to sustain long-range missile exchanges, especially given the numbers it needs to penetrate Israel's formidable air defenses.
"The Israelis probably don't know precisely how many ballistic missiles [Iran] has with the requisite range, but have tried to reduce its ability to replenish is stockpile," Binnie said.
Blinded Offensively And Defensively?
Israel's attack was also aimed at weakening Iran's ability to fend off aerial attacks by targeting its radars and Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems.
There have been unconfirmed reports quoting U.S. and Israeli officials claiming that three S-300 systems were taken out in the Israeli attack.
"The S-300s are Iran's most capable air-defense capabilities, so targeting them again emphasizes Iran's inability to defend itself and gives the Israeli Air Force more freedom of operation in the future," Binnie said.
Satellite images also showed that at least two radar systems -- one in the western Ilam Province and another in the southwestern Khuzestan Province -- were hit.
The radars are an essential part of Iran's early warning system, Hinz told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Taking them out, he said, would mean Israel had "degraded Iran's ability to resist any air attack even further, making it more vulnerable."
Fox News quoted a U.S. defense official as saying that the radars also had an offensive purpose, and have been used by Iran to track ballistic missiles after launch to assess their trajectories and course-correct if necessary.
Binnie said that "would be unusual but might explain how [Iran] has achieved a fairly high level of accuracy with its ballistic missiles -- though not good enough to do really significant damage."
Impact On Iranian Retaliation
There are growing numbers of reports that Tehran is considering retaliating against Israel as the extent of the damage caused by the October 26 attack becomes clearer.
Given that Iran has suffered damage to both its offensive and defensive capabilities, it is unclear if it can launch another large-scale attack on Israel, experts say.
Binnie said the United States' deployment to Israel of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an advanced anti-missile system, will further "swing the balance in [Israel's] favor."
Media reports citing Israeli sources say that Iran is preparing to launch an aerial attack on Israel using Tehran-backed Shi'ite militant groups in Iraq. That would suggest the Islamic republic hopes its proxies will absorb the brunt of a potential Israeli response.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report
Germany To Close 3 Iranian Consulates Over Execution Of Dual Citizen
Germany will shut all three Iranian consulates in Germany in reaction to the execution of dual German-Iranian citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on October 31.
"We have repeatedly made it clear that the execution of a German citizen will have serious consequences," Baerbock said in New York. "I have therefore decided to close the three Iranian consulates-general in Frankfurt am Main, Munich, and Hamburg."
Baerbock added that relations with Iran have reached “more than a low point” following the execution of Sharmahd, which was announced by Tehran on October 28.
Germany had already recalled its ambassador for consultations and summoned the Iranian charge d'affaires to voice Berlin's protest.
Baerbock said the execution of Sharmahd shows the Iranian "regime of injustice" continues to act brutally.
The 32 employees at the three consulates must leave the country unless they have German citizenship. The embassy in Berlin is not affected by the order.
Iran summoned Germany's charge d'affaires in Tehran to protest Germany's "unjust" decision, state media reported on October 31.
Iranian state media said Sharmahd was put to death after he was convicted of carrying out terrorist attacks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that having a German passport does not give anyone immunity.
German Chancellor Olaf Schultz joined Baerbock in strongly condemning the execution of Sharmahd, calling it a "scandal" for the Iranian government.
Deputy Special Envoy Abram Paley of the U.S. Office of the Special Envoy for Iran welcomed Germany’s decision to close the three Iranian consulates.
“We stand united with the international community in holding the regime accountable,” he said on X, calling the execution of Sharmahd “unjust.”
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also strongly condemned the execution of Sharmahd and said the European Union is considering taking measures in response.
Sharmahd, 69, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.
Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.
Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."
With reporting by dpa and Reuters
- By RFE/RL
New Hezbollah Leader Vows To Continue On Warpath With Israel
Naim Qassem, the new leader of the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, vowed on October 30 to continue to implement the war plan set by his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, amid reports that Israel was again striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
In his first speech since being named earlier this week to replace Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27, Qassem said Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, "must not stop and watch...despite the pain."
In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group.
Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed around than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages. Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
Qassem, who has close ties with Iran and whom Washington declared a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018, gave no details on how he will continue the war against Israel and admitted Israel's strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon have been a "big blow."
Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, Qassem is often credited with leading the organization’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.
Analysts have been watching to see if the appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.
Hezbollah controls much of southern Lebanon and its political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Iran Lifts Ban On Buying Latest iPhone Models
More than 19 months after Iranians were barred from buying the latest iPhone models, authorities announced on October 30 that the ban was being lifted.
"The details and regulations related to the import of the iPhone will be announced in the nearest future," Telecommunications Minister Satar Hashemi said in a post on X.
He gave no further details but said the move was "supported" by President Masud Pezeshkian.
The ban -- aimed at limiting foreign currency spending as the country reels from crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear program -- was put in place in February 2023, outlawing the sale or import of the 14 and 15 series iPhones.
It didn't apply to iPhone 13 models and lower, creating a massive black market in a country where having an Apple-brand device is seen as a status symbol. Before the ban, analyst estimates showed around 1-in-3 smartphones were iPhones.
The U.S. tech giant itself doesn't have an official presence in Iran as it is barred from doing business in the country due to U.S. sanctions.
A landmark deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and world powers in 2015 restricted Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions.
However, Iran expanded its program and restricted IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.
Tehran and Washington have not had diplomatic relations since 1980, when U.S. President Jimmy Carter broke off ties amid the Iran hostage crisis.
- By Kian Sharifi
Will Hezbollah's New Leader, Naim Qassem, Seek To Negotiate With Israel?
The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah on October 28 named Naim Qassem as its new secretary-general, picking him from what was a seemingly small field of candidates.
Qassem, who had served as Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, takes over from longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive Israeli air strike on September 27.
Nasrallah’s expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later, leaving the group with little choice but to pick Qassem.
Hezbollah -- which also has a political party represented in Lebanon’s parliament -- is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing.
Qassem is often credited with leading Hezbollah’s efforts to transition from a mainly militant group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, with his writings mostly focused on the ideological and religious underpinnings of the group, rather than military strategy.
The appointment of an experienced political figure may suggest that Hezbollah is preparing to talk to Israel to end the ongoing conflict, though Israel has shown no interest in meeting.
Born in 1953 in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila, Qassem joined Hezbollah in the early years of its formation in the 1980s. While not a founding member, he rose through the ranks quickly and was named deputy secretary-general to Abbas al-Musawi, the then-chief of Hezbollah and one of its founders.
Following Musawi’s death in an Israeli operation a year after he received the appointment, Nasrallah was named Hezbollah’s new boss and Qassem retained his position.
Like Nasrallah, Qassem has very close ties with Tehran. Unlike his predecessor, however, his trips to Iran have not been covert. He has frequently been photographed with Iranian officials and traveled to Tehran in July to attend the inauguration of President Masud Pezeshkian.
The United States labeled Qassem a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2018 and later sanctioned him as part of a wider crackdown on Hezbollah’s financial network.
Leading the group’s political efforts, Qassem has been heavily involved in organizing Hezbollah’s political campaigns since it began participating in parliamentary elections in 1992.
Qassem has been crucial in framing Hezbollah’s ideological and religious stance. He published a book in 2005, Hezbollah: The Story From Within, which sought to offer an insider’s look into the group’s inception and stated goals, including fighting Israel.
Hezbollah has suffered significant setbacks in recent months as Israel continues to degrade its military capabilities and decapitate its leadership. Qassem is effectively the only remaining Hezbollah figure with any name recognition beyond Lebanon’s borders.
While Hezbollah’s decision-making Shura Council was not spoiled for choice in picking Nasrallah’s successor, the appointment of Qassem may also signal the group’s willingness to end the conflict with Israel.
“Rather than electing a primarily military figure, in choosing Naim Qassem Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the end of the ongoing war with Israel,” Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, wrote on X.
“Hezbollah needs an experienced political interlocutor at the helm in anticipation of political negotiations with its opponents,” she added.
But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wasted little time in dispelling the possibility of diplomacy with the Iran-backed group, writing on X about Qassem’s promotion: “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”
Germany Recalls Iran Envoy After Execution Of German-Iranian
Germany has recalled its ambassador to Tehran following the execution of Jamshid Sharmahd after his conviction on disputed terrorism charges and summoned Iran's envoy to Berlin to answer questions about the death of the 69-year-old Iranian-German citizen.
The Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, reported that the death sentence against Sharmahd was carried out on October 28 "after final confirmation of the court's decision by the Supreme Court.”
In a trial last year that was dismissed as a sham by Germany, the United States, and rights groups, Sharmahd was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran claims was behind a 2008 bombing of a mosque in Shiraz in which 14 people were killed and of planning other attacks in the country.
The dual citizen's family has dismissed the accusations as "ridiculous."
Germany's Foreign Ministry has denounced Sharmahd's "murder" and said German Ambassador Markus Potzel has been recalled. Before being recalled, Potzel also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to protest the killing in "the strongest terms," the ministry said.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said Sharmahd's killing showed that an "inhumane regime rules in Tehran" and vowed that it "would have serious consequences."
Araqchi on October 29 lashed out on X at Baerbock, saying, "A German passport does not provide impunity to anyone, let alone a terrorist criminal," adding, "Enough with the gaslighting, Analena Baerbock."
Separately, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's office said on October 29 that Iranian Ambassador to Berlin Mahmud Farazandeh had been summoned by the German government to answer questions about Sharmahd's death.
The U.S. State Department referred to Iran's treatment of Sharmahd, who also had U.S. residency, as “reprehensible” and described his judicial proceedings as a “sham trial.”
"We have long made clear that we oppose the way Iran carries out executions, often in a way that fundamentally violates human rights,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on October 28.
The director of the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, called the execution "a case of extrajudicial killing of a hostage aimed at covering up the recent failures of the hostage-takers of the Islamic republic."
- By RFE/RL
Hezbollah Names Naim Qassem As Successor To Slain Chief Nasrallah
Hezbollah has elected its deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, to succeed slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group announced on October 29.
Hezbollah is an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon and which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its military wing, not its political party.
"Hezbollah's (governing) Shura Council agreed to elect...Sheikh Naim Qassem as secretary-general of the party," the Iran-backed group said in a statement, more than a month after Nasrallah's killing.
"We pledge to God and the spirit of our highest and most precious martyr, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the martyrs, the fighters of the Islamic resistance, and our steadfast, patient and loyal people, to work together to achieve Hezbollah's principles and the goals, and to keep the flame of resistance alight and its banner raised until victory is achieved," the statement said.
In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group. Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following a terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages.
Nasrallah died last month in an Israeli air strike. His expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later.
Qassem, born in Beirut in 1953 into a family originally from the south near the border with Israel, has been Hezbollah's deputy-secretary general since 1991, when he was nominated as second-in-command to Abbas al-Musawi, the group's leader who himself was killed in an Israeli strike in 1992.
Qassem kept his position when Nasrallah took over.
After Nasrallah largely disappeared from public view in the aftermath of Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel, Qassem remained the most visible senior figure of the group and has often acted as a spokesman for Hezbollah.
Qassem has been involved in organizing Hezbollah's election campaigns for Lebanon's parliament since the group first participated in elections in 1992.
With reporting by Reuters and dpa
Germany Condemns Iran's 'Inhumane Regime' After Execution Of Iranian-German National
Germany’s foreign minister on October 28 condemned Iran's “inhumane regime” after the execution of Iranian-German national Jamshid Sharmahd following his conviction on disputed terrorism charges.
The Iranian judiciary's Mizan news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's judiciary, reported that the death sentence against Sharmahd was carried out on October 28 "after final confirmation of the court's decision by the Supreme Court.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock strongly condemned the Iranian regime for executing the 69-year-old Sharmahd, saying in a statement that it “shows once again what kind of inhumane regime rules in Tehran: a regime that uses death against its youth, its own population, and foreign nationals."
Baerbock added that Berlin had repeatedly made clear "that the execution of a German national would have serious consequences."
Sharmahd, who also had U.S. residency, was accused by Iran of heading a pro-monarchist group that Tehran believes was behind a deadly 2008 bombing and of planning other attacks in the country.
Fourteen Iranians were killed and 210 others wounded in the attack at the Sayyid al-Shuhada Husseiniya mosque in Shiraz during a ceremony to mourn the death of Imam Hussein, the third imam of Shi'a Muslims.
Iran's Intelligence Ministry accused Sharmahd of planning the bombing, a charge his family dismissed as "ridiculous."
The U.S. State Department referred to Iran's treatment of Sharmahd as “reprehensible” and described his judicial proceedings as a “sham trial.”
"We have long made clear that we oppose the way Iran carries out executions, often in a way that fundamentally violates human rights,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on October 28.
Sharmahd was detained under unclear circumstances and accused by the Iranian Intelligence Ministry of being a member of the Iranian opposition group Kingdom Assembly of Iran, or Tondar.
Based in Los Angeles, Tondar says it aims to overthrow the Islamic republic and reestablish a monarchy similar to that of Cyrus the Great. It runs pro-Iranian opposition radio and television stations abroad, as well as social media channels.
The director of the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, called the execution "a case of extrajudicial killing of a hostage aimed at covering up the recent failures of the hostage-takers of the Islamic republic."
"Jamshid Sharmahd was kidnapped in the United Arab Emirates and unlawfully transferred to Iran, where he was sentenced to death without a fair trial," Amiry-Moghaddam said in a statement.
The European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights said: "The unlawful abduction of Sharmahd, his subsequent torture in custody, the unfair show trial, and today's execution are exemplary of the countless crimes of the Iranian regime."
His family long maintained his innocence and say he was seized by Iranian authorities while traveling through the U.A.E.
Sharmahd's daughter, Gazelle Sharmahd, last year said her father was barely able to walk and talk due to health conditions that prison authorities failed to properly treat. She said then that her father suffered from Parkinson's disease.
With reporting by AFP and AP
U.S. Warns Iran Of 'Severe Consequences' For Any New Attacks
The United States warned Iran at the UN Security Council on October 28 of "severe consequences" if it undertakes any further aggressive acts against Israel or U.S. personnel in the Middle East.
"We will not hesitate to act in self-defense. Let there be no confusion. The United States does not want to see further escalation. We believe this should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran," U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.
The Security Council met after Israel struck missile factories and other sites in Iran on October 26. It was retaliation for Iran's October 1 attack on Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles.
Iranian Ambassador to the UN Amir Saied Iravani accused Washington of being "complicit" through military support for its ally. He added that Iran “reserves its inherent right to respond at a time of its choosing to this act of aggression."
Tehran warned earlier that Israel can expect retaliation for its attack on Iranian military sites, even as the country’s supreme leader appeared noncommittal on continuing tit-for-tat strikes between the two regional foes.
Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said on October 28 that Israel will face “bitter consequences” for carrying out air strikes on Iranian territory two days earlier.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, also speaking on October 28, said that Tehran would use all available tools to respond to Israel's attack.
Israel has said it successfully carried out "targeted and precise" retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26.
The strikes -- which came in response to an Iranian missile barrage against Israel on October 1 that itself was in response to the killing of an IRGC commander -- came amid fears that Israel might launch a major attack that risked seriously escalating the possibility of all-out war between the two regional powers.
Experts suggested that the strikes gave both Israel and Iran an off-ramp to avoid a broader regional war.
Iran has said that it received warning from Israel ahead of the strikes, the latest in a series of attacks and strikes between Israel and Iran related to Israel’s ongoing retaliatory war in Gaza and Iran’s role in supporting anti-Israel militant groups in the region.
Iranian officials have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired on October 26 but have acknowledged that four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.
Speaking on October 27 to the families of the Iranian military officers who were killed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the Israeli action as a “miscalculation” but stopped short of calling for an Iranian response.
Instead, Khamenei called on government officials to “understand the capability” Iran had and advised that while it was wrong to “exaggerate” the impact of the Israeli strikes, it was also wrong to “minimize” them.
IRGC commander Salami was quoted by Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency as saying that Israel’s military action had "failed to achieve its ominous goals."
Salami also said the strikes were indicative of "miscalculation and helplessness" by Israel as it continues to battle the Iran-backed groups in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon.
The Palestinian group Hamas is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group that sparked Israel’s war in Gaza with a deadly assault on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Israel has also launched an air assault and invasion against Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, part of which it controls. Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.
Reports suggest that satellite images of the aftermath of the Israeli strikes against Iran on October 26 appeared to show damage at facilities at military bases that in the past have been linked to Iran’s secretive nuclear program and to its ballistic-missile program.
Iran has not acknowledged damage at either its Parchin or Khojir military bases, which were reportedly targeted.
Imprisoned Iranian Nobel Laureate Moved To Hospital, Husband Says
Narges Mohammadi, the imprisoned Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner and rights activist, has been moved to a Tehran hospital after suffering health issues for more than two months, her husband said on October 27. “After nearly nine weeks of medical denial, Narges Mohammadi has finally been hospitalized thanks to the support of civil and human rights activists, the Free Narges Coalition, and pressure from the global community and media,” Taghi Rahmani wrote on X. Rahmani, who is living in Paris, added that the delay, “along with years of imprisonment and solitary confinement, have caused serious harm to Narges’s health.” Mohammadi, 52, has been in and out of prison for the past 20 years. She is currently serving a 12-year sentence in Tehran's Evin prison for "spreading propaganda."
Iran's Khamenei Says Israeli Strikes Should Not Be Exaggerated Or Minimized
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned against either exaggerating or minimizing the impact of Israeli’s October 26 retaliatory strikes against Iran.
Speaking on October 27 to the families of Iranian military officers killed in the attack, Khamenei described the strikes as a “miscalculation” by Israel.
However, while he called on government officials to “understand the capability” Iran had, he stopped short of calling for an Iranian response that would extend the series of tit-for-tat strikes between the two archfoes.
“Of course, they are exaggerating,” he said in reference to Israel, which said it successfully carried out "targeted and precise" strikes on military sites.
“Exaggerating them is wrong, but minimizing them is also wrong,” Khamenei said, adding that Iran cannot just say that “it was nothing, it didn’t matter.”
Tehran has asked Switzerland, which holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, to call an extraordinary session to condemn Israel following the air strikes, which came in retaliation for Iranian rocket strikes earlier this month.
While Iranian officials have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired, they also said four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.
The strikes did not target Iranian nuclear or oil-production facilities, as some had expected.
U.S. President Joe Biden on October 26 defended Israel’s right to defend itself but also expressed concern that the tit-for-tat strikes between the two bitter enemies could lead to a wider Middle East war.
Iran had been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back after Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1.
Tehran said that those strikes were in retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel that were part of military actions against Iran-allied groups -- mainly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war in the Gaza Strip when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took 251 Israeli hostages.
The Israeli retaliatory war has devastated Gaza and killed more than 40,000 people, according to Hamas-led Palestinian authorities.
Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it would continue the action until the fighting in Gaza is stopped.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah's political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been wiped out in Israel air strikes since late September.
- By RFE/RL
UN Security Council Sets Urgent Session On Iran-Israeli Conflict At Tehran's Request
The UN Security Council has agreed to hold an emergency session at Tehran's request following Israel's missile strike against Iran in the early morning hours of October 26.
The Swiss mission, which holds the council's rotating presidency, said the meeting would take place on October 28 at Tehran's request and with the backing of Russia, China, and Algeria.
Earlier on October 27, Tehran asked the council to call the extraordinary session to condemn Israel following the air strikes, which came in retaliation for Iranian rocket strikes earlier this month.
Amir Saeid Iravani, the Iranian envoy to the UN, claimed in a letter to the Security Council that Israel’s “unlawful and aggressive actions” were a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and a “flagrant breach of international law and the UN Charter.”
While Iravani and other leaders in Tehran have insisted that Iranian defenses intercepted most of the projectiles that Israel fired, they also said four Iranian military officers were killed in the attacks.
Danny Danon, Israel’s UN ambassador, blasted Iran's remarks, saying Tehran was "trying to act against us in the diplomatic arena with the ridiculous claim that Israel has violated international law."
"As we have stated time and time again, we have the right and duty to defend ourselves and will use all the means at our disposal to protect the citizens of Israel," Danon said.
Israel struck Iran in the early morning hours of October 26 in what it called a "targeted and precise" attack in retaliation for earlier Iranian attacks on Israel. Israel said it solely struck military sites and not nuclear or oil production areas.
U.S. President Joe Biden on October 26 defended Israel’s right to defend itself -- Washington was apprised by Israel of the move ahead of time -- but he also expressed concerns that the tit-for-tat strikes between the two bitter enemies could lead to a wider Middle East war.
The letter called on the Security Council to “take a firm stance and condemn the Israeli regime for committing these acts of aggression strongly and unequivocally.”
Iravani added that Iran is requesting that the president of the Security Council “convene an urgent meeting to address this severe violation and unlawful actions and ensure accountability of this criminal regime.”
The Security Council comprises five permanent members, each with veto power – including the United States, Israel’s closest ally, making it nearly certain the council would not condemn Israel’s actions.
Along with other permanent members Russia, China, Britain, and France, 10 other countries are in the council on a rotating basis.
Iran had been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back. Tehran said its strikes were retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel.
The attacks were part of Israel’s recent actions against Iran-allied groups -- mainly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took around 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.
Israeli retaliation has devastated Gaza and killed more than 40,000 people, according to Hamas-led Palestinian authorities.
Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israel, saying it would continue the action until the fighting in Gaza is stopped.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah's political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.
Most of Hezbollah’s leadership has been wiped out in Israel air strikes since late September.
With reporting by AFP and Reuters
Gunmen Kill 10 Police In Attack In Southern Iran
An attack on a police patrol in southeastern Iran has left 10 officers dead, the Interior Ministry said. The attack occurred in Gohar Kuh, in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, some 1,200 kilometers southeast of the capital, Tehran. No group has claimed responsibility so far. The Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported an attack on "two police patrols returning to their police station." Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has ordered an investigation into the incident, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. Sistan-Baluchistan has been rocked by a spate of deadly attacks targeting security forces in recent months. Those previous attacks have been claimed by Jaish al-Adl, a Baluch separatist militant group that is believed to be operating out of neighboring Pakistan. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.
- By Kian Sharifi
Israel's Calibrated Attack On Iran Gives Both Countries An Off-Ramp
Israel on October 26 struck military targets deep inside Iranian territory, but the extent of its promised attack was more calibrated than many feared.
The region has been on edge since October 1, after Israel promised that Iran "will pay" for launching its largest-ever direct attack -- almost 200 ballistic missiles in all -- on its archfoe.
The main concern was whether Israel would strike Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure, each carrying its own risks.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that if the scale and scope of Israel's attack remained restricted, "an off-ramp has been provided for both sides to step back from the brink."
Since the early hours of October 26, when Iranian state television acknowledged loud explosions had been heard around Tehran, news outlets and Telegram accounts that support the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sought to downplay the significance of the attack.
Some pro-IRGC channels on Telegram went as far as alleging that Israeli media were critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for launching a "disappointing" attack on Iran.
Why The Measured Response?
Israel had been under pressure for weeks from its ally the United States and Persian Gulf Arab states to formulate its response in a way that would not plunge the region into an all-out war.
In a sign of Washington's diplomatic efforts, the Pentagon moved quickly after reports of the attack to say the United States was made aware of Israel's plans beforehand, but that there was no U.S. involvement in the military move.
"U.S. pressure has had an impact and Israel may have preferred to avoid dragging Washington into an escalation the U.S. does not want, particularly ahead of the [U.S. presidential] elections," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
Gulf states were worried that an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would have a blowback on their own oil and gas facilities, while the wider international community was concerned that hitting Iran's nuclear facilities would compel Iran to develop a bomb.
While measured, the Israeli attack still marked the largest aerial strike on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and carried a "clear message," Horowitz said.
"Israel can operate deep within Iran, relatively freely. This freedom of operation may have further expanded after last night, as Israel likely took out some of Iran's air defenses," he said.
The Iranian Army said two soldiers were killed while "repelling" the Israeli attack, suggesting that they were involved in air-defense operations. Experts say their deaths are unlikely to have much of an impact on whether and how Iran responds to Israel.
"I don't think this specific incident is going to prompt Iran in a significant way, because there has been no indication suggesting that causing casualties was Israel's aim," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Some reports say Israel telegraphed its attack to Iran, which Azizi said indicated that Israel wanted the conflict "to at least remain within certain boundaries."
The extent of the damage caused by the attack is unclear and satellite imagery will likely provide a clearer picture of the targets and scale of damage. Unless the damage is significant, experts say, Iran will either forego a response or opt for a retaliation on the lower end of the spectrum, which could involve attacks on Israel by its proxies.
Eroded Deterrence
After Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel in April, it said it had established a "new equation" whereby every Israeli action against Iran would be met with a response.
The attack, which came in response to the suspected Israeli bombing of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, was meant to reestablish Iran's deterrence against its archrival.
Horowitz says Israel does not appear deterred and that Iran's deterrence largely relied on its regional allies and proxies, particularly on Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and armed group that controls much of southern Lebanon.
Israel has been carrying out a weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon targeting the leadership and military capabilities of Hezbollah, which has been designated as a terrorist entity by the U.S. but the EU has blacklisted only its military wing.
Horowitz said Iran's deterrence "has now been eroded," which he argued will have unpredictable long-term consequences.
"The main problem, in my opinion, is that there is in fact no 'equation' -- we're in uncharted territory, which makes it very dangerous," he added.
Explosions Heard In Tehran As Israel Launches Retaliatory Strikes (Video)
Explosions were heard in the Iranian capital, Tehran, as Israel's military said it conducted retaliatory strikes targeting missile-manufacturing facilities. The October 26 strikes are seen as retaliation for Iran's ballistic-missile attacks against Israel earlier this month.
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